BUSINESS STATISTICS 1 ASSIGNMENT 2 – CASE STUDY ANALYSIS- DATASET#9

Semester 3, 2020
Name-SID: Au Duong Khai Hoa-s3836372
Lecturer : Teacher.Tech Yap

Table of Contents
Part 1. Introduction-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1
Part 2 Descriptive Statistics and Probability-------------------------------------------------------------------------------3
Part 3. Confidence Intervals--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 6
Part 4. Hypothesis Testing----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 7
Part 5. Conclusion---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 8
Part 6. References--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 9

Part 1. Introduction 
Adolescent Fertility rate describes the number of births given per 1000 female ages 15 to 19
(Population Reference Bureau 2013). 

Globally, there is an article stating that roughly 21 millions girls from 15 to 19 years old become
pregnant and 12 millions give birth every year (World Health Organization 2020). According to
UNFPA (2020), the number of adolescent pregnancies witnesses a widespread increase yearly all
over many countries (see Appendix A) and still high in developing countries (United Nation
2013).

Figure 1 : Adolescent birth rate in the world

Even though the trend in the globe has reduced, the actual number of children born has not .
Specifically, Eastern Asia and Western Africa are facing the greatest rates which are at 95,153
and 70,423 respectively (WHO 2020). Adolescent fertility is likely to happen in marginalized
communities, which conclude poverty and lack of education (WHO 2020). 

In 2015, the United Nations developed a sustainable development that has 17 goals, with the
purpose of calling for actions to protect the world and improve people’s living lives (United
Nation 2020). There is the 3th goal which is Good Health and Well Being, to reach this goal

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significantly ,the government must look at many different aspects in the society, including
Adolescent Fertility Rate. A target is to reduce global maternal mortality percentages to less than
70 per 100,000 live births by 2030 ( United Nation 2020). Teenage pregnancy has many negative
consequences to Health, Society and Economy. Giving birth while too young leads to causes of
heavy diseases or even death among teenagers 15-19 years. Aslo the babies were born facing
very high risks. Moreover, teengers have to drop-off school, as the situation directly affects
employees' opportunities of a nation (WHO 2020). So that, there is a need to decrease the
number of teenage pregnancies to enhance universal health (United Nation 2013), playing a role
of achieving Sustainable Development Goal 3 :Good health and well-being. 

A research (Guillaume 2016) proved that there is a relationship between Fertility and Gross
National Income (GNI).

Figure 2 : Relationship between Fertility and Income, 2000,(Guillaume 2016)-Unit : GDP-

per capita U.S.Dollars
It is reported that adolescent birth rate contributes with a high percentage to the total fertility
(United Nation 2013). While nations with the highest fertility rate tend to have lower GNI,
otherwise, rich countries where GNI is much higher usually tend to have lower fertility rate due
to better regulations and well-educating methods (Mark 2007).

Figure 3 : Adolescent fertility rate, Canada and US,2000-2020,(UNDP 2011)-Unit: births

per 1000 women

Therefore, it could be simply assumed that there is a negative relationship between Adolescent
Fertility Rate and Income. However, as mentioned above, we need to look at a problem in
different aspects, there are chances that other direct factors possibly leading to the problem.

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This essay is aimed to analyze the adolescent fertility rate through the given data by using
primary descriptive statistical business methods and making conclusions for those findings.  

Part 2 Descriptive Statistics and Probability

1. Statistically Independent Events
There is evidence that can prove that countries' GNI has an inverse ratio with adolescent fertility
In this part, in order to convince whether the income and Adolescent fertility rate are statistically
independent events or not, applying and calculating the condition of probability is one of the
methods. 

Since the countries are categorized into 3 different groups, including Low-Income countries
( with a GNI <  $1,000 per capita ), Middle-Income countries ( with $1,000 ≤ GNI ≤ $12,500 per
capita ), and High-Income countries ( with a GNI > $12,500 per capita). And the high AFR are
defined as the AFR has the rate which is more than 30 births per 1,000 women ages 15-19. All
above are described as the table below (from the data set 9 provided) :
 
AFR>30 AFR<30 Total
Low-Income Countries 8 0 8
Middle-Income 12 4 16
Countries
High-Income Countries 0 11 11
Total 20 15 35
Figure 4: Contingency table
Two events are independent if, and only if: 
P(Income | AFR )=P(Income)
Low-income countries with GNI per capita < $ 1,000.

P ( LI ∧AFR >30) 8/35

P(LI | AFR>30) = = = 40%
P ( AFR >30) 20/35

P ( LI ∧AFR <30) 0/35

P(LI | AFR<30) = = = 0%
P ( AFR <30) 15/35

While P(LI) = 8/35 = 23% 

  => P (LI | AFR>30) # P (LI) & P( LI | AFR<30 )  # P(LI)  
Middle-Income countries with $1,000 ≤ GNI ≤ $12,500 per capita
P ( MI∧ AFR> 30) 12/35
P(MI | AFR>30 ) = = = 60%
P( AFR>30) 20/35
P ( MI∧ AFR> 30) 4/35
P(MI |AFR<30) = = = 27% 
P( AFR<30) 15/35

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While : P(MI) =  16/35 = 46%
=> P(MI | AFR>30) # P(MI) & P(MI | AFR<30) # P(MI)
High-Income countries  with a GNI > $12,500 per capita
P ( HI∧ AFR >30) 0/35
P(HI | AFR>30) = = = 0%
P( AFR> 30) 20/35

P ( HI∧ AFR >30) 11 /35

P(HI | AFR<30) = = = 73%
P( AFR< 30) 15/35

While P(HI) = 11/35 = 31% 

=> P(HI | AFR>30) # P(HI) & P(HI | AFR<30) # P(HI)
From three calculation above, AFR and GNI statistically are dependent, therefore, AFR has an
effect on GNI. 
It is shown that if countries have AFR > 30, 40% of it is of Low-income countries and 60% is of
Middle-Income countries. While the percentage of Middle and High-Income countries is 27%
and 73% respectively in AFR < 30 group. 
As mentioned above, in High-Income countries there is 0% of AFR > 30 as this group consists of
are developed countries where the AFR is expected to decline (Mark 2007).Oppositely, the
majority of AFR centers in Low-income countries where most regions are suffering from crises
(WHO 2020). A specific issue could be explained for this cause of high AFR is that in several
societies many girls surfer pressure from their family to have childbear and get married (39%
before 18 years and 12% before 15 years of age) early owing to limited education and
employment opportunities (WHO 2020). It could be seen that methods for AFR is not
considerably taken actions.
These low, middle and high- countries are in the group of high AFR (>30 births per 1,000
women ages 15-19)  has the probability of 100%, 75% and 0% respectively. So that in this case it
could assume that the larger AFR, the smaller GNI. In Addition, according to the calculated
figures, low-income countries are expected to have greater AFR than the other two. 
2. Measurements of Central Tendency 
Low-Income Middle-Income High-Income Countries
Countries Countries
Mean 105.4 47.2 10.2
Median 98.9 47.3 8.8
Mode #N/A #N/A #N/A
Figure 5: Table measures the central tendency of AFR of 3 groups of country – Unit: births
per 1,000 women ages 15-19

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 Low-Income Middle-Income High-Income Countries
Countries Countries
Q1 86.9 29.6 7.
Q3 118.2 58.0 12.
IQR 31.3 28.4 5.3
CV% 31% 54% 50%
Min 69.0 12.5 5.3
Max 173.0 111.2 22.4
Figure 6 : Table to check the outliers of provided dataset – Unit: births per 1,000 women
ages 15-19
Firstly, checking the outliers :
Criteria need to meet  : Min < Q1-1.5*IQR or Max > Q3+1.5*IQR 
a. Check for Low-Income Countries dataset : 
Min = 69, Max = 173 
Min > Q1 – 1.5*IQR= 39.95 (per 1000 lives birth) 
Max > Q3 + 1.5*IQR= 165.15 (per 1000 lives birth) 
=> Observing the criteria,  Low-Income Countries dataset contain outliers in the right
orientation 
b. Check for Middle-Income countries dataset :
Min =12.5, Max= 111.2 
Min > Q1 – 1.5*IQR= -13
Max > Q3 + 1.5*IQR= 100.6
=> Observing the criteria, Middle-Income countries dataset contain outliers in the right
orientation 
c. Check for High-Income countries dataset :
Min= 5.3, Max= 22.4 
Min > Q1 – 1.5*IQR= -0.95
Max > Q3 + 1.5*IQR= 20.25 
=> Observing the criteria, High-Income countries dataset contain outliers in the right
orientation 
From the calculation above, all the dataset has outliers. A study  stated that mean is affected by
outliers (laerd statistics, n.d) and mode value does not exist in those datasets. Therefore, median
is the best measure for central tendency. In this case, Median in Low-Income countries has the
highest value which is 98.9 compared to the other two Middle and High-Income Countries at
47.3 and 8.8 respectively. The result early shows the relationship between AFR and GNI, the
more AFR countries face, the less GNI they have

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However, try taking Nigeria country as consideration at the provided dataset, even though this
nation belong to Middle-income countries, the AFR is high which is 111.218 births per 1,000
women, higher in some countries in Low-income countries group. Through this it could be
proved that income is not the only factor that impact on the AFR.

Part 3. Confidence Intervals

1. Confidence Intervals for the world average of Adolescent fertility rate: 
Sample size (n) 35
Degree of freedom (df = n-1) 34
Sample Standard deviation (S) – Unit: per 1,000 live births 41.9
Error Level (α) – Unit: % 5%
Sample mean (X̅) – Unit: per 1,000 live births 48.9
t-critical value (t (5 % 34 )¿ ¿ ± 2.032244
Figure 7 : Calculation
Because the population distribution is unknown and the sample size as calculated above which is
n = 35 > 30, therefore CLT is applicable meaning that the distribution of sample mean is
normally distributed.
->So that we do not need to conduct any consumption
As the population standard deviation is unknown -> t-table will be applied for the caculation
method.
Having 95% of confidence level with 5% of error level.
t (1−α ,df )∗S t (5 % 34 )∗41.9 41.9
X1 = X́ + = X́ + = 48.9 + 2.032244 * = 63.29
√n √ 35 √ 35
S t( )∗41.9 41.9
X2 = X̅ −t (1−α ,df )* = X́ − 5 %34 = 48.9 - 2.032244 * = 34.5
√n √ 35 √ 35
 34.5 ≤ 𝜇 ≤ 63.29
From the caculation above, it is 95% confident to admit that the world average AFR is between
34.5 and 63.29 ( birth per 1000 woman aged 15-19).
2. Suppose the world standard deviation of adolescent fertility rate is known :
Z α∗σ
Known 𝜎 : X́ ±
√n

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Population standard deviation is a calculation from every individual in a population, while the
sample standard deviation is a calculation from only some individuals in the whole population
(Taylor 2019). The sample size is much more smaller than population size, while the fact is that
the bigger the size, the smaller the confidence internal. Therefore it could be stated that the
confidence intervals will be decreased.
->The confidence intervals will be more accurate :
As the 3 dataset calculated above, including low, middle & high-income countries groups. All
these groups consist outliers, therefore it could affect the results and make the certainty of
confidence interval decline.
In this case, the data calculated is just depended on 35 regions when there are totally 195
countries existing on the world. It is not accurate to conclude the whole population just based on
35 regions because there will be still un-known conditions in the rest countries.

Part 4. Hypothesis Testing

1. Hypothesis Testing :
As mentioned in Part 3, The confidence interval is 34.5 ≤ 𝜇 ≤ 63.29. The provided world
average adolescent fertility rate is 46 per 1000 women ages 15 – 19 which is in the confidence
interval in 2014.
Step 1: Check for CLT :
As n = 35 > 30 -> sampling distribution of mean is normally distributed

Step 2: Set Null and Alternative Hypothesis ( H (0 )∧H (1 ) ¿

{¿
Step 3: It is a two-tailed test. (As the needed test number belongs to the confidence interval)
Error Level (a) 5%
Sample size (n) 35
Degree of freedom (df) 34
Sample mean (X̅) 48.9
Sample standard deviation (S) 41.9

Step 4: As the population  population standard deviation is unknown ->Use t-table

Step 5: t value = t (1−α ,df )= t (5 % 34 )=¿ ± 2.032244

X̅ ― µ 48.9 ― 46
Step 6 : T-test : z = S = 41.9 = 0.409
√n √ 35
Step 7 :

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From step 6 above, we have : t-test value z = 0.409 < 2.032244 , It is shown that t-test value
does not fall into the rejection region, therefore reject the alternative hypothesis and accept
the null hypothesis.
Step 8 : It is 95% confident that the AFR will remain at 46 per 1000 women (ages 15 – 19) in the
future.
Step 9: With 5% of error level, we do not have enough evidence to refuse that the world average
AFR will be changed in the future. The AFR will be changed or stayed at the same. However,
there are still chances that the AFR will change in the near future, even though it is conclude that
it can not change. As the H (0 ) is not rejected, we might commit type 2 error.

2. Number of countries decrease by half

The number of countries decreasing by half means that the sample size has also decrease. As it
was said above that the data is still small (35 countries) to represent the whole world, the data
from the sample collected will be far to the population in reality, then the result of hypothesis
testing will be affected. As the sample size declines by half, the t-value will get smaller chance to
fall into the rejection region as the non-rejection area will be bigger. It based on the dataset
given, in this case the data is too small to be able to conclude compared to the whole population
size, decline in the size of the sample will decrease the certainty. Therefore, the result received
from hypothesis testing will be less precise. In fact, in the future there is a lot of unexpected
change and development, there is no exact proof that the AFR will be the same, while the sample
size is too small to conclude.

Part 5. Conclusion
In conclusion, it is certain that for the objective to achieve the sustainable development goal 3 :
Good Health and Well-being, Adolescent Fertility Rate (AFR) is a factor that need to be counted.
Regarding to the finding in part 2, it is found that there is a relationship between AFR and GNI
as the higher AFR, the lower the GNI. Moreover, in the finding of 3 groups of country, we can
also witness that the low-income countries group tends to have the highest AFR compare to the
other two groups. However, on another case, we also figure out that GNI is not the only factor
affecting the AFR, there are well-developing countries still having AFR in the world (United
Nation 2013) as in the introduction part mentioned.
In part 3 and part 4, we examine the confidence intervals to estimate the world average of
adolescent fertility rate and use hypothesis testing to predict the changes of AFR. As the results,
we had 95% of confidence that the world average AFR in 2017 is (34.5; 63.29) births per 1000
women ages 15-19. Another finding we conclude that AFR will stay the same in the future. But,

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due to the sample size limitation ( just based on 35 countries ), it still not be valid compare to the
whole population (total countries existing in the world). Therefore, it is highly recommended to
analyze based on as much data as possible to finalize a better accurate result.
To decline the number of adolescent fertility rate, the world is starting to implement its actions
and responsibility, developing a supporting program and tools and collaborating with the globe
to achieve the future goal, adolescents gradually become the world centricity of health and well
being agenda (WHO 2020).

Part 6. References
UNDP 2020, sustainable Development Goals, UNDP, viewed 13 December 2020,
<https://www.undp.org/content/undp/en/home/sustainable-development-goals.html>

WHO 2020, Adolescent pregnancy, WHO, viewed 13 December 2020, <

https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/adolescent-pregnancy>

UNDP 2020, Goal 3 : Good health and well-being, UNDP, viewed 13 December 2020, <
https://www.undp.org/content/undp/en/home/sustainable-development-goals/goal-3-good-health-
and-well-being.html >

Guillaume 2016, ‘The Link between Fertility and Income’, Federal Reserve Bank of
ST.LOIUS, viewed 13 December 13, 2020, < https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-
economy/2016/december/link-fertility-income >

Mark 2007, ‘Fertility rates and gross national incomes per capita’, cmaj group, 09 October, viewed 13
December 2020,< https://www.cmaj.ca/content/177/8/846.1 >

United Nation 2013, Adolescent Fertility since the International Conference on Population and
Development (ICPD) in Cairo, United Nation, US.

Laerd Statistics 2018, Measures of Central Tendency, Laerd Statistics, viewed 13 December
2020, < https://statistics.laerd.com/statistical-guides/measures-central-tendency-mean-mode-
median.php >

POPULATION REFERENCE BUREAU 2013, ‘Trends in Adolescent Fertility a Mixed

Picture’, PRB, 20 May, viewed 13 December 2020, < https://www.prb.org/adolescent-
fertility/#:~:text=The%20adolescent%20fertility%20rate%20is,her%2020s%20to
%20begin%20childbearing. >

Canadian Institue of Child Health 2020, Adolescent fertility rate, Canada and US,2000-2020,
(UNDP 2011)-Unit: births per 1000 women, Canadian Institue of Child Health, viewed 13
December 2020, <https://www.undp.org/content/undp/en/home/sustainable-development-
goals/goal-3-good-health-and-well-being.html >

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Taylor 2019, ‘ Differences Between Population and Sample Standard Deviations’, ThoughtCo,
23 January, viewed 13 December 2020, < https://www.thoughtco.com/population-vs-sample-
standard-deviations-3126372 >

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