Download as pdf or txt
Download as pdf or txt
You are on page 1of 76

CONTENTS

01. OFFICE MARKET

02. RETAIL MARKET

03. INDUSTRIAL MARKET

04. RESIDENTIAL MARKET

05. Q&A

CBRE FORUM 2021 | VIETNAM CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.


OFFICE
MARKET

CBRE FORUM 2020 | VIETNAM CBRE RESEARCH | © 2020 CBRE, INC.


A TALE OF TWO CITIES

HANOI VS HO CHI MINH CITY

Source: CBRE Vietnam Research


Selected photos retrieved from Bao Thanh Nien, Kenh 14, Vietnamnet, VnExpress July 2nd to July 5th 2021

CBRE FORUM 2021 | VIETNAM 4 CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.


FOURTH COVID-19 WAVE IS HITTING HCMC (AS OF 7 JULY 2021)

Hanoi and HCMC Google mobility index

COVID-19 first COVID-19


40%
wave Hanoi HCMC fourth wave
20%

0%

-20%

-40%

HCMC daily cases

Hanoi daily cases

Source: Google’s mobility index extracted from Google’s COVID 19 Community Mobility Reports. The reference day would shift one day behind if it is a national holiday. The baseline for prior outbreak is
the median value for the corresponding day of the week during the 5 week period Jan 3 Feb 6, 2020.
Source: Google, CBRE Research, 03 July 2021.

CBRE FORUM 2021 | VIETNAM 5 CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.


MORE EMPLOYEES ARE RETURNING TO THE OFFICE IN APAC, SEA STALLED

Office utilization rate, APAC

APAC

Greater China

Australia/ New Zealand

North Asia

South East Asia

India

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%


No one working in the office <25% 25% - 50% 51% - 75% >75%

Source: CBRE Asia Pacific, Occupier Survey, June 2021

CBRE FORUM 2021 | VIETNAM 6 CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.


OFFICE USE REMAINS ROBUST, BUT THE ROLE IS CHANGING

Office workplace vs Remote working compared

Innovation

Individual productivity

Employee engagement

Team productivity

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Remote work is better Same Workplace is better

Source: CBRE Asia Pacific, Occupier Survey, June 2021

CBRE FORUM 2021 | VIETNAM 7 CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.


IMPROVING BUSINESS OUTLOOK ACROSS APAC

Expectation on the state of business environment, APAC Company’s current business conditions, APAC

100%
Expanding 27%

80%
Sustained recovery 25%
60%

Early stages of recovery 18%


40%

Stabilising 19%
20%

0% Still contractin g 10%


Apr 20 Oct 20 May 21
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
Better About the same Worse

Source: CBRE Asia Pacific, Occupier Survey, June 2021

CBRE FORUM 2021 | VIETNAM 8 CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.


CONTRACTION SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER COMPARED TO 2020

Transactions by purpose, Major Transactions Collected and Closed by CBRE, H1 2021

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%
HCMC Hanoi HCMC Hanoi HCMC Hanoi
2019 2020 H1 2021
6M
New Letting Expansion Relocation Renewal Consolidation Contraction

Source: CBRE Vietnam Research, Q2 2021.

CBRE FORUM 2021 | VIETNAM 9 CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.


BOTH OCCUPIERS AND LANDLORDS ARE
MORE ADAPTIVE TO CURRENT SITUATION

2020 H1 2021

Contract, surrender unused space Contract, surrender unused


to save cost space to save cost ?
17% of transactions in Hanoi and 0% of transactions in Hanoi and
Occupiers 27% of transactions in HCMC 3% of transactions in HCMC
Work from home Work from home
March & April 2020 Since May in HCMC

Provide incentives Provide incentives ?


(rent free period, rent reduction) (rent free period, rent reduction)
10% - 50% depending on industry Few or no short-term incentives
Landlords *except buildings under lockdown

$ Reduce asking rents


1% - 5% on average $ Reduce asking rents ?
Reduced or flat escalations at renewal

CBRE FORUM 2021 | VIETNAM 10 CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.


MARKET SNAPSHOT
GRADE A OFFICE MARKET H1 2021

HCMC HANOI
TOTAL
SUPPLY
475,000 528,000
0 NLA (sqm) sqm NLA sqm NLA
18 projects 21 projects
New projects
ASKING
in H1 2021 RENT*
US$41.6 6.4% y-o-y US$26.9 3.0% y-o-y
US$/sqm/month
90,000 sqm
in Hanoi
in H2 2021 VACANCY
RATE 12.2% 0.4 ppt y-o-y 18.9% 11.3 ppt y-o-y
(%)

Source: CBRE Vietnam Research, Q2 2021. Note: Asking rent is quoted on NLA, excluding VAT & Service charges.

CBRE FORUM 2021 | VIETNAM 11 CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.


MARKET SNAPSHOT
GRADE B OFFICE MARKET H1 2021

HCMC HANOI
TOTAL

1
SUPPLY
NLA (sqm)
958,000 sqm NLA 997,000 sqm NLA
69 projects 72 projects
New project
in H1 2021 in HCMC ASKING
RENT*
US$25.1 3.0% y-o-y US$13.9 1.5% y-o-y
90,000 sqm US$/sqm/month
in Hanoi and
24,000 sqm
VACANCY
in HCMC RATE
in H2 2021 9.1% 4.3 ppt y-o-y 11.6% 0.6 ppt y-o-y
(%)

Source: CBRE Vietnam Research, Q2 2021. Note: Asking rent is quoted on NLA, excluding VAT & Service charges.

CBRE FORUM 2021 | VIETNAM 12 CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.


THE WORST IS OVER?

HCMC & Hanoi Office market, Net absorption


50,000

40,000

30,000

20,000
Sqm

10,000

-10,000

-20,000
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2018 2019 2020 2021
HCMC Hanoi

Source: CBRE Vietnam Research, Q2 2021.

CBRE FORUM 2021 | VIETNAM 13 CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.


VACANCY RATES DROPPED, BUT WILL TAKE TIME TO REACH PRE-COVID LEVEL

HCMC Office, Market Performance by Grade Hanoi Office, Market Performance by Grade

50 25% 50 25%
Asking rents (US$/sqm/month)

Asking rents (US$/sqm/month)


40 20% 40 20%

Vacancy rate

Vacancy rate
30 15% 30 15%

20 10% 20 10%

10 5% 10 5%

- 0% 0 0%
2018 2019 2020 H1 2021
Q2 2021 2018 2019 2020 H1 2021
Q2 2021

Grade A - Rent Grade B - Rent Grade A - Rent Grade B - Rent


Grade A - Vacancy rate Grade B - Vacancy rate Grade A - Vacancy rate Grade B - Vacancy rate

Source: CBRE Vietnam Research, Q2 2021.


Note: Asking rent is quoted on NLA, excluding VAT & Service charges.

CBRE FORUM 2021 | VIETNAM 14 CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.


HIGH DEMAND FROM TMT AND BANKING/FINANCE SECTORS

Transactions by Industry, Major Transactions Collected Expectation on change of real estate portfolio over the
and Closed by CBRE, H1 2021 next 3 years, APAC

All sectors
TMT

TMT
Banking/Finance/Insurance

Finance
Manufacturing

Professional services
Logistics

Retail/Trading Life Science

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

HCMC Hanoi Unsure Decrease No change Increase

Source: CBRE Vietnam Research, Q2 2021.

CBRE FORUM 2021 | VIETNAM 15 CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.


HYBRID WORK MODEL WILL BE THE NEW NORM

Anticipated of remote working’s frequency in steady state situation, APAC

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%
Work in office 1-2 1day/week or Up to 3 4-5 days/week Work remotely
all the time days/month less days/week all the time

Q3 2020 Q2 2021

Source: CBRE Asia Pacific, Occupier Survey, June 2021

CBRE FORUM 2021 | VIETNAM 16 CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.


MORE OPEN TOWARD
DESK SHARING RATIO
APAC based companies
Industries that are
quick to adapt

Life Sciences

Finance

Technologies

Business Services

Source: CBRE Asia Pacific, Occupier Survey, June 2021

CBRE FORUM 2021 | VIETNAM 17 CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.


DEVELOPERS ARE FOCUSING ON
GREEN CREDENTIALS

HANOI HCMC

Less water consumed

Techno Park Tower Mapletree Business


Capital Place (In progress)
President Place Etown Central Center Less energy consumed

CO2
Lower emissions

Lancaster Luminaire 36 Cat Linh


(in progress) (in progress) Deutsches Haus Friendship Tower Phu My Hung Tower

Less waste
Source: CBRE Vietnam Research, Q2 2021.

CBRE FORUM 2021 | VIETNAM 18 CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.


SUPPLY GROWTH TO ACCELERATE FROM H2 2021 IN HANOI
2021 2022 onward
Hanoi Office, notable future projects ~180,000 sqm 150,000+ sqm
1 2 6 7
5

Techno Park Tower (A) HUD Tower (B) Lancaster Luminaire (A) 36 Cat Linh (B)
Gia Lam, Thanh Xuan Dong Da Ba Dinh
9 NLA: ~90,000 sqm NLA: 48,000 sqm NLA: 20,600 sqm NLA: 16,000 sqm

3 4 8 9

Midtown Vinacomin Tower (B) BRG Tower (B) Epic Tower (B) Lotte Mall Hanoi (A)
Cau Giay Hoan Kiem Cau Giay Tay Ho
West 8 7 4
6 NLA: 38,000 sqm NLA: 5,000 sqm NLA: 25,000 sqm NLA: 45,000 sqm
3 CBD 5 10
2
10

1 Intracom Riverside (B) The Valley Smart Building (B)


Dong Anh Nam Tu Liem
NLA: 22,000 sqm NLA: 39,500 sqm
(*) Buildings are partially owner occupied. Listed NLA is area available to rent.
Source: CBRE Vietnam Research, Google Images, Q2 2021

CBRE FORUM 2021 | VIETNAM 19 CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.


WHILE ONLY MODERATE SUPPLY GROWTH EXPECTED IN HCMC
HCMC Office, notable future projects
2021 2022 onwards
1 45,418 sqm ~150,000+ sqm
6 1 2 5 6

4
2 8
7
AP Tower (B) Pearl 5 Tower (B) Cobi Tower (B) E-town 6 (A)
Binh Thanh District 3 District 7 Tan Binh
NLA: ~10,000 sqm NLA: 10,944 sqm NLA: 27,127 sqm GFA: 40,000 sqm

3 4 7 8

The Graces (B) Saigon First House (B) One Central (A) Prime A
35 District 7 District 3 District 1 District 2
NLA: 8,295 sqm NLA: 15,348 sqm NLA: 36,000 sqm NLA: 52,000 sqm

Source: CBRE Vietnam Research, REIC Images, Google Images, Q2 2021

CBRE FORUM 2021 | VIETNAM 20 CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.


MARKET OUTLOOK MUCH DEPENDS ON THE ROLL-OUT OF VACCINES AND SUPPLY PIPELINE

HCMC Office, Performance Outlook Hanoi Office, Performance Outlook


Forecast Forecast
50 30% 50 30%

Asking rent (US$/sqm/month)


Asking rent (US$/sqm/month)

40 24% 40 24%

Vacancy Rate

Vacancy rate
30 18% 30 18%

20 12% 20 12%

10 6% 10 6%

- 0% - 0%
2018 2019 2020 2021F 2022F 2018 2019 2020 2021F 2022F

Source: CBRE Vietnam Research, Q2 2021.


Note: Asking rent is quoted on NLA, excluding VAT & Service charges.

CBRE FORUM 2021 | VIETNAM 21 CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.


FORECAST TRENDS

Economic outlook to Vaccine visa and Both occupiers and Green and wellness
remain positive increasing vaccine landlords are applying credentials are in the
despite COVID-19 rate will lessen the strategies to be more spotlight as occupiers’
impact of COVID-19 resilient adoption of Environment,
Social & Governance
(ESG) increase

CBRE FORUM 2021 | VIETNAM CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.


RETAIL
MARKET

CBRE FORUM 2020


2021 | VIETNAM CBRE RESEARCH | © 2020
2021 CBRE, INC.
THE PANDEMIC HAS CHANGED
THE NATURE OF SALES Retail and Services
Turnover H1 2021
F R O M TO 4.9% y-o-y (vs. 11.8% in 2019)

• Show more supports


• Retain existing Retail Business to be Closed
Wait and See
Landlords mode
tenants 26% y-o-y
• Stabilize occupancy
rate
Vacant Spaces, NLA Sqm
43% vs. Q1 2020 for HCMC
72% vs. Q1 2020 for Hanoi
• Negotiations • Streamline
Operation
• Cost cutting
Retailers • Expansion strategy
• Generate Rent Support
Cash • Vaccination
Pre-lockdown: 20%-50%
depends on categories, malls

CBRE FORUM 2021 | VIETNAM 24 CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.


Mobility Index, Retail & Recreations
0

UNEXPECTED NEW -10

WAVE WORRIED -20


-30
CONSUMERS -40
-50
-60
-36% Vietnam -70
(vs. -16% in Q4 2020) HCMC: worse
-80
than first wave
-90
GROCERY &
-8%

Au 0

Ja 0
20

Fe 1

21
0

O 0

M 1
De 0
M 0

M 1
Ap 0

Ap 1
Ju 0

Ju 1
N 0
Se 0
VS

2
-2

2
-2
2

2
-2

-2
-2

-2
l-2

2
2

c-
PHARMACY

n-

n-

n-
p-

b-
r-

r-
ct-
g-
b

ov
ar

ay

ar

ay
Ju
Fe

M
HCMC Hanoi
WORKPLACE -14% VS
Note: Google’s mobility index extracted from Google’s COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports, as of monthly average
between 1 Mar 2020 and 15 May 2021. The baseline for prior outbreak is the median value for the corresponding day
of the week during the 5-week period Jan 3-Feb 6, 2020. Mobility trends for places like restaurants, cafes, shopping
PUBLIC -28% VS centers theme parks, museums, libraries, and movie theaters.

Source: Google, Data as of 20 May 2021

CBRE FORUM 2021 | VIETNAM 25 CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.


VIETNAM CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX HAS NOT IMPROVED SINCE THE FIRST WAVE

Monthly Retail sales growth, y-o-y Consumer Confidence Index


60% 150

40% 120
Retail Sales (y-o-y)

20% 90

0% 60

-20% 30

-40%
0
Vietnam South Korea Singapore Japan China
N 0

M 1
0
D 0
20

20

M 1

21
Au 0

21
20

1
2

2
l -2

-2

-2
r-2
-2
-2

n-
g-

ct-
n-

p-

b-

n-
ar

ay
ec
ov
Ju

Ap
Se

Fe
Ju

Ju
Ja
O

2019 First Wave 2020 Q1 2021


Vietnam South Korea Singapore
Japan China

Source: GSO of Asian countries, June 2021 Source: Tradingeconomics, June 2021

CBRE FORUM 2021 | VIETNAM 26 CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.


VIETNAM RETAIL SNAPSHOT H1 2021

HCMC Hanoi

SUPPLY 1,068,128 sqm NLA SUPPLY 1,004,481 sqm NLA


NLA (sqm) New Supply: 1 in Non-CBD NLA (sqm) New Supply: 0

CBD Non-CBD CBD Non-CBD


ASKING Snapshot ASKING
RENT (*)
US$ 137 US$ 34 RENT (*)
US$ 102 US$ 29
US$/sqm/month 1.2% y-o-y -5.2% y-o-y H1 2021 US$/sqm/month -1.7% y-o-y -3.8% y-o-y

CBD Non-CBD CBD Non-CBD


VACANCY 1.9% 14.6% VACANCY 10.8% 14.6%
RATE (%) RATE (%) 10.1 ppt y-o-y 4.8 ppt y-o-y
0.0 ppt y-o-y -1.6 ppt y-o-y

Note: Asking Rent is average of Ground Floor and First floor, excluding of Service Charge and 10% VAT.
Source: CBRE Research, Q2 2021
CBRE FORUM 2021 | VIETNAM 27 CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.
UNCERTAIN PANDEMIC CONTROL MEASURES POSTPONED MARKET RECOVERY

COVID – 19
COVID – 19 (Wave 4)
COVID – 19 (Wave 3)
Vacancy Rate 2019 – Q2 2021 COVID – 19 (Wave 2)

18%
16%
14% Some tenants
12% support policies
Vacancy Rate

in HCMC:
10%
• 10-50% rent
8% support in
6% May
4% • Free rent in
June
2%
0%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2019 2020 2021

HCMC-Vacancy Rate Hanoi - Vacancy Rate

Source: CBRE Vietnam Research, Q2 2021

CBRE FORUM 2021 | VIETNAM 28 CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.


ROBUST M&A AND FRANCHISE ACTIVITIES IN VIETNAM

“SK Group invests 410 million


USD for a 16.26% stake in “Masan partners Phuc Long to
VinCommerce” develop Phuc Long Kiosks at
Source: Tuoi Tre, Thanh Nien, April 2021 WinMart+ stores nationwide”
Masan acquired 20% of Phuc
Long and aim to open 1,000
“Alibaba, Baring Private Equity kiosks in 24 months.
Asia consortium complete $400mm
investment in The CrownX” Source: VIR, May 2021
Source: VietnamNews, June 2021

Nova F&B franchises:

JUMBO Seafood (Singapore),


Crystal Jade Palace (Singapore),
Gloria Jean's Coffees (Australia),
Mango Tree (Thailand), Lotteria
(Korea)…..
Source: Vnexpress, May 2021

CBRE FORUM 2021 | VIETNAM 29 CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.


RETAIL NEW ENTRANTS TO VIETNAM EXPECTED TO BE LOW THIS YEAR

2019 new entrants 2020 new entrants 2021: expansion & potential
F&B
Fashion & Accessories
Others

CBRE FORUM 2021 | VIETNAM 30 CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.


SOME EXPANSION PLANS NEED MORE THAN ONE TYPE OF FORMAT

RESIDENTIAL
SHOPPING CENTRE PODIUM/SHOPHOUSE
Challenges Challenges
• Slow footfall recovery despite restriction uplift • Fewer options for different categories
• Lack of tourist activity • Quality of the retail property
Opportunities
• Good locations for entrants/expansions Opportunities
• Professionalism and providing various options • Near resident areas for delivery during work from home
• Occupancy rate can recover quickly • Good for grocery-anchored or mixed stores
• Less strict lease terms, termination terms, etc.

CBRE FORUM 2021 | VIETNAM 31 CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.


IN-STORE SALES DECLINED IN MOST CATEGORIES

Vietnam in-store sales growth, y-o-y Vietnam E-commerce sales growth, y-o-y
Growth Projection of
30% 100% Online Sales by 2025
(times growth vs 2020)
20% 80%
3.11
10% 60% 2.40
2.06 2.20 2.15
1.8
0% 40%

-10% 20%

-20% 0%

Home Care
E-c ommerce

Apparel & Footware

Food & Beverage

Electronics
Health & Beauty
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Apparel & Footwear Electronics

Health & Beauty Home & Garden Care

Source: Euromonitor, retrieved as of June 2021

CBRE FORUM 2021 | VIETNAM 32 CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.


SECTOR PERFORMANCE VARIES IN 2021

CBRE FORUM 2021 | VIETNAM 33 CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.


STRONG PIPELINE IN HANOI AS MARKET ANTICIPATES A COMEBACK
ONCE THE PANDEMIC IS BROUGHT UNDER CONTROL

Hanoi: Over 300,000 sqm in the pipeline


Hanoi Retail, Market Performance Outlook
2021 2022 – 2024
Forecast
120 16%

14%
100

Asking Rents (USD/sqm/m)


12%

Vacancy Rate (%)


FLC Twin Towers The Zei Park City 80
Lotte Mall Hanoi 10%
NLA:14,000 sqm NLA : 9,000 sqm NLA : 12,000 sqm
NLA : 72,000 sqm
60 8%

6%
40
4%
20
Vincom Mega Hinode City Toshin – Starlake Aeon Mall Hoang Mai 2%
Mall Smart City NLA : 10,000 sqm NLA: 17,000 sqm NLA : 84,000 sqm
NLA : 49,000 sqm 0 0%
2020 2021Q2 2021F 2022F 2023F

Rental Rate - CBD Rental Rate - Non CBD


Vacancy Rate - CBD Vacancy Rate - Non CBD
Upcoming Vincom
Project @ NTH Str. Mega Malls
NLA : 55,000 sqm

CBRE FORUM 2021 | VIETNAM Source: CBRE Research, Data as of June 2021.34
For Hanoi and HCMC, data is updated till Jul 2021. CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.
HCMC: MUCH EXPECTATION FOR THE OPENINGS OF
MAJOR PROJECTS IN THE CBD

HCMC’S NEW SUPPLY 2022-2023


Over 200,000 sqm in the pipeline
Ho Chi Minh Retail, Market Performance Outlook

Forecast
160 16%

Rental Rate (USD/sqm/month)


140 14%
120 12%

Vacancy Rate
100 10%
Socar Mall Central Premium Mall Vincom Grand Park 80 8%
35,000 sqm 24,000 sqm 48,000 sqm
District 2 District 8 District 9 60 6%
40 4%
20 2%
- 0%
2020 2021 2021 2022 2023
Q2
Rental Rate - CBD Rental Rate - Non-CBD

Saigon One
Vacancy Rate - CBD Vacancy Rate - Non-CBD
One Central Sun Tower
33,700 sqm 12,000 sqm 20,000 sqm
Note: Asking Rent is average of Ground Floor and First floor, excluding of Service Charge and 10% VAT.
District 1 District 1 District 1 Source: CBRE Research, Q2 2021

CBRE FORUM 2021 | VIETNAM 35 CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.


FACTORS THAT BOOST OUR CONFIDENCE

Physical Omni-Chanel/Online For landlords: Vaccination 70- Pandemic


stores: enhancement is Consideration to adopt 75% population control
Consolidation is Crucial various schemes such as in 2021 measures from
inevitable, but Customer engagement: TOS, CAPEX support, Hanoi and HCMC the Government
store upgrades Time to create new Franchise, Partnership can be the first to
will continue initiatives Local tenants is a focus recover

CBRE FORUM 2021 | VIETNAM CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.


INDUSTRIAL
MARKET

CBRE FORUM 2020


2021 | VIETNAM CBRE RESEARCH | © 2020
2021 CBRE, INC.
INDUSTRIAL LAND
MARKET SNAPSHOT 6M 2021

14,000
NORTH 12,000
10,000 ≈17,900 ha
8,000 Leasable Industrial Land

Ha
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
≈69.0%
Average Occupancy Rate
Hai Bac Hanoi Hung Hai Others
Phong Ninh Yen Duong (*)

14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
Ha

6,000
4,000
≈30,000 ha
2,000 Leasable Industrial Land
SOUTH 0
Binh Dong BR-VT HCMC Long Others
Duong Nai An (*) ≈75%
Total land area Land for lease Average Occupancy Rate

Source: CBRE Vietnam Research & Consulting, Q2 2021.


(*) Other provinces in Northern Vietnam include Thai Nguyen, Vinh Phuc, Quang Ninh, Ha Nam, Nam Dinh, Ninh Binh, Bac Giang
Other provinces in Southern Vietnam include Tay Ninh, Binh Thuan, Binh Phuoc

CBRE FORUM 2021 | VIETNAM 38 CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.


READY-BUILT FACTORY & WAREHOUSE
MARKET SNAPSHOT Q2 2021

WH SUPPLY Q2 2021 SUPPLY


46%
≈1.1
NORTH

mil sqm GROWTH 10%


New supply
Q2 2021

WH: 4.4% y-o-y


RBF SUPPLY Q2 2021 CAGR increases
≈2.3 mil sqm RBF : 1.9% y-o-y 2021-2023E
significantly in
WH SUPPLY Q2 2021
major industrial
SUPPLY
22% regions
SOUTH

≈3.5 mil sqm GROWTH Q2 2021

WH: 10% y-o-y 14%


RBF SUPPLY Q2 2021

≈3.2 mil sqm RBF : 8% y-o-y CAGR


2021-2023E

Source: CBRE Vietnam Research & Consulting, Q2 2021.

Note: Northern RBF supply is calculated for Bac Ninh, Hai Duong, Hai Phong, Thai Nguyen, Vinh Phuc, Hung Yen, Bac Giang.
Northern WH supply is calculated for Bac Ninh, Hanoi, Hai Duong, Hai Phong, Hung Yen.
Southern RBF and WH supply is calculated for HCMC, Binh Duong, Dong Nai, Long An.

CBRE FORUM 2021 | VIETNAM 39 CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.


M O D E R AT E R E N TA L E S C A L AT I O N F O R I N D U S T R I A L L A N D W H I L E R E N T S
R E M A I N E D S TA B L E F O R F A C T O R Y A N D W A R E H O U S E

Industrial land asking rents, Q2 2021 Warehouse/Ready-built factory asking rents, Q2 2021
Up 5% - 10% y-o-y in good location industrial Ready-built Factory Warehouse
parks in Binh Duong, Dong Nai, Long An Stable asking rent Stable asking rent
US$/sqm/remaining leasing term

350 12
300
10

US$/sqm/month
250
8
200
6
150

100 4

50 2
0 0
HCMC

Bac Giang
Long An
Binh Duon g
Dong Nai

Quang Nam
Danang

Quang Ngai

Nghe An
Hai Duong

Hung Yen
Hai Phong

Thai Nguyen
Bac Ninh
Ha Noi

Ha Nam
BR-VT
Tay Ninh

Quang Nam
Dong Nai

Bac Giang
Long An
HCMC

Tay Ninh
Da Nang

Hung Yen
Thai Nguyen
Binh Duong

Hai Phong
Hanoi
Quang Ngai

Hai Duong
BR-VT

Bac Ninh
Minimum rent Maximum rent Minimum rent Maximum rent
Note: Asking rent of industrial land and ready-built factory/warehouse is exclusive of VAT and Management/Service charge. The asking industrial land rent is quoted on remaining lease term of
industrial parks. Normally, the remaining lease term is from 30 – 45 years.
Source: CBRE Vietnam Research & Consulting, Q2 2021.

CBRE FORUM 2021 | VIETNAM 40 CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.


INFRASTRUCTURE EXPANSION & IMPROVEMENT
EXPANSION OF EXPRESSWAY TO BORDER AND COASTAL AREAS IN THE NORTH
Chi Lang City

H
a
China
N
oi
Thai Nguyen City


La
Thai Nguyen

o
Completed expressways:
C

y
ai

a
y

sw
a

Ex

Ha No
sw

es
pr
es

es

pr
• Lang – Hoa Lac pr

sw
Ex

Ex
i

a
Ca

n
i – Tha
y

So
g
• Ha Noi – Lao Cai Vinh Phuc on

ng
M

La

i
n

i–
Do

Nguye
Bac Giang

No
• Ha Noi – Ninh Binh Vinh Phuc City Va
n

Ha
n Expre
Bac Giang City
• Ha Noi – Thai Nguyen
Quang Ninh

ssway
Bac Ninh City
• Ha Noi – Hai Phong CONSTRUCTION OF VAN DON
• Hai Phong – Ha Long Ha Long – Van Don Expressway
- MONG CAI EXPRESSWAY
Natio
Bac Ninh nal Ro
ad 1 8
is expected to complete in 2022.
• Ha Long – Van Don Lang – Hoa Lac Expressway
Ha Long City
Hai Duong City
Under construction/ National Road 5

Ha No
planning expressways: Ha Noi Hai Duong
Hai Phong – Ha Long Expressway
Hai Phong City

i – Nin
• Van Don – Mong Cai Ha Noi – Ha
Hung Yen i Phong
Expressway
• Ninh Binh – Hai Phong h Binh
Expre
Hai Phong
• Huu Nghi – Chi Lang
ssway

International Airports:

ay
w
ress
Phu Ly City
Thai Binh Major Sea Port/ River Port
• Noi Bai

Exp
Ha Nam

ng
• Cat Bi International Airport

Pho
Ha i
• Van Don


inh
Industrial park

hB
Major Sea Ports/ River Ports: Ninh Binh City
Nam Dinh
Nin
• Hai Phong Port Complex
Major city
• Quang Ninh Port
Source: CBRE Vietnam Research & Consulting, Q2 2021.

CBRE FORUM 2021 | VIETNAM 41 CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.


INFRASTRUCTURE EXPANSION & IMPROVEMENT
EXPANSION OF EXPRESSWAY TO THE WEST AND COASTAL AREAS IN THE SOUTH

Completed expressways: Binh Phuoc


• HCMC – Long Thanh – Dau Giay
• HCMC – Trung Luong
Under construction/planning
expressways: Trung Luong - My Thuan Long Thanh International Airport Dau Giay – Phan Thiet
• Ben Luc – Long Thanh Tay Ninh Expressway in Apr 2021 in Mar 2021 in Mar 2021
• HCMC – Moc Bai
• Bien Hoa – Vung Tau Vinh Hao - Phan Thiet
Binh Duong
• Trung Luong – My Thuan
• Dau Giay - Phan Thiet
Binh Thuan
• Vinh Hao - Phan Thiet Moc Bai - HCMC

• Ring Road no.3 of HCMC Dong Nai


Thu Dau Mot
Bien Hoa Dau Giay - Phan Thiet
International Airports:
Phan Thiet
• Tan Son Nhat


y anh
• Long Thanh (Future)

G Th
u ng
Major Sea Port/ River Port

ia
Da Lo
Major Sea Ports/ River Ports:


C
HCMC

M
HC
• Cat Lai Port
Bi
Long An
en
International Airport
H
oa
• Hiep Phuoc Port Complex Ben Luc – Long Thanh


Vu
ng
• Long An International Port HCMC - Trung Luong

Ta
BR - VT Industrial park
u
• Cai Mep Port Complex

Major city
Trung Luong - My Thuan Source: CBRE Vietnam Research & Consulting, Q2 2021.

Vung Tau
CBRE FORUM 2021 | VIETNAM 42 CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.
LOCAL EXPANSION
FACTORY EXPANSION OF ANCHOR TENANTS TO ACCOMMODATE BUSINESS GROWTH

Active industries Emerging industries

Packaging Automotive

Logistics Electronics

Medical
Furniture
equipment

Source: CBRE Vietnam Research & Consulting, Q2 2021.

CBRE FORUM 2021 | VIETNAM 43 CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.


PRODUCT SHIFTING FROM CHINA
TO SEA REMAINS MAINSTREAM

Tighten regulation
Rising labor cost

Unexpected events

Bordering location
Benefits of FTAs & Incentives

The COVID-19
and trade tension
accelerate
manufacturing Significant
improvement of
relocation
Source: CBRE Vietnam Research & Consulting, Q2 2021.
infrastructure

CBRE FORUM 2021 | VIETNAM 44 CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.


LOGISTICS DRIVES DEMAND FOR INDUSTRIAL LAND
LAND FOR LOGISTICS DEVELOPMENT IS THE MOST SOUGHT AFTER INDUSTRIAL
PROPERTY

Industrial leasing enquiries by property type Industrial leasing enquiries by land type, 6M 2021

6M 2021
2020

33%

67%

Industrial Land WH RBF Logistics land Manufacturing land

Source: CBRE Vietnam Research & Consulting, 6M 2021.


Note: The provided information is based on industrial leasing enquiries recorded by CBRE from January to June 2021.

CBRE FORUM 2021 | VIETNAM 45 CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.


APAC AGGREGATE BASE ON THE TOTAL
AREA OF LEASING MAJOR RBF & WH NOTABLE
% OF LEASING TRANSACTIONS Y-T-D
TRANSACTIONS, VIETNAM
Transaction Location Size (sqm)
Others Logistics (WH) HCMC 25,000
15% Retailer (WH) HCMC 10,000
3PL (WH) Dong Nai 5,000
Manufacturing 3PL (WH) Dong Nai 17,000
6% Furniture (WH) Binh Duong 40,000
40% Electric components (RBF) HCM 5,000
2020 3PL Manufacturing (RBF) Dong Nai 5,000
(E-commerce + 3PL: 62.8%)
14% Food processing (RBF) Long An 20,000
Retail, F&B Shoes (RBF) Long An 2,700
Plastic (RBF) Long An 2,700
Unknown (RBF) Long An 5,000
3PL (WH) Bac Ninh 46,000
25% Logistics (WH) Bac Ninh 25,000
Retailer (WH) Bac Ninh 20,000
E-commerce E-commerce (WH) Bac Ninh 14,000
Manufacturing (RBF) Thai Nguyen 14,500
% of Warehouse Leasing Transactions y-t-d
(APAC aggregate base on the total sqm) Logistics (WH) Hai Phong 14,000
Note: The provided information is based on industrial leasing transactions
Source: CBRE Vietnam Research & Consulting, 2021. APAC reports 2020 recorded by CBRE in 6M 2021.

CBRE FORUM 2021 | VIETNAM 46 CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.


INDUSTRIAL LAND
EXPANSION OF EMERGING REGIONS – THE NORTH
Thai Nguyen
Chi Lang City

H
a
China
N
oi
Thai Nguyen City


La
o
C

y
ai

a
y

sw
Ex
a

Ha No
ssw

es
pr
re

es

pr
xp

sw

Ex
E
ai

n
i – Tha
y
Asking industrial land rent, Northern region

So
C
g
Vinh Phuc on

ng
–M

La
Bac Giang

i Nguye
n

i–
Do 300

No
n
Vinh Phuc City Va

USD/sqm/remaining term
Ha
250

n Expre
Bac Giang City
Quang Ninh
200

ssway
Bac Ninh City

150
Natio Ha Long – Van Don Expressway
Bac Ninh nal Ro
ad 1 8
100
Lang – Hoa Lac Expressway
Hai Duong City Ha Long City 50
National Road 5 0

Ha No
Hai Phong – Ha Long Expressway
Ha Noi Hai Duong Hai Phong City
Tier-1 Tier-2

i – Nin
Ha Noi – Ha
i Phong
Expressway
Northern Region
Tier-1 Tier-2 Hung Yen
h Binh
Express
Hai Phong Average occupancy rate, Northern region
Hanoi Vinh Phuc
w ay

ay
Bac Ninh Thai Nguyen 100%

w
ress
Phu Ly City

Occupancy rate
Ha Nam 80%

Exp
Hai Duong Bac Giang Thai Binh

ng
Major Sea Port/ River Port

Pho
Hai Phong Ha Nam 60%

Ha i
International Airport 40%


Hung Yen Thai Binh

inh
Nam Dinh

hB
Ninh Binh City
Industrial park 20%
Nin
Quang Ninh
Major city 0%
Tier-1 Tier-2

Source: CBRE Vietnam Research & Consulting, Q2 2021.


Northern Region

CBRE FORUM 2021 | VIETNAM 47 CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.


INDUSTRIAL LAND Asking industrial land rent, Southern region
EXPANSION OF EMERGING REGIONS – THE SOUTH 350

USD/sqm/remaining term
300
250
200
Tier-1 Tier-2 150
100
HCMC Tay Ninh Binh Phuoc
50
Binh Duong Binh Phuoc 0
Vinh Hao - Phan Thiet
Tay Ninh Tier-1 Tier-2
Dong Nai Ba Ria – Vung Tau Southern Region
Long An Binh Thuan
Average occupancy rate, Southern region
Tien Giang
100%

Binh Duong 80%

Occupancy rate
60%
Binh Thuan
Moc Bai - HCMC 40%
Dong Nai 20%
Thu Dau Mot
Bien Hoa Dau Giay - Phan Thiet
0%
Phan Thiet
Tier-1 Tier-2


y anh
Southern Region

G Th
u ng
ia
Da Lo

C
HCMC

M
HC
Bi
Long An
en
Major Sea Port/ River Port
H
oa
Ben Luc – Long Thanh


Vu
International Airport
ng
HCMC - Trung Luong

Ta
BR - VT
u Industrial park
Trung Luong - My Thuan

Major city

Vung Tau Source: CBRE Vietnam Research & Consulting, Q2 2021.


CBRE FORUM 2021 | VIETNAM 48 CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.
NEW DEVELOPERS
ARE EYEING ON THE MARKET

Frasers Property Vietnam


unveils first industrial
development
May 17, 2021 | 09:18

CBRE FORUM 2021 | VIETNAM 49 CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.


DEVELOPMENT OF HIGH-RISE WAREHOUSE AND FACTORY
IN THE CONTEXT OF LIMITED INDUSTRIAL LAND IN URBAN AREAS

High-rise 9%
Factory

91% ◼ High-rise RBF


◼ Low-rise RBF

High-rise RBF supply proportion,


Q2 2021

High-rise 5%

Warehouse ◼ High-rise
and Built-
to-suit
warehouse
95% ◼ Normal
warehouse

High-rise WH supply proportion,


Q2 2021
Image source: BW Industrial, TLS, Tan Thuan EPZ, CBRE. Source: CBRE Vietnam Research & Consulting, Q2 2021.

CBRE FORUM 2021 | VIETNAM 50 CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.


MARKET OUTLOOK

NEW INVESTORS AND MANUFACTURING EXPANSION DESPITE THE 4TH WAVE OF


DEVELOPERS ACTIVELY OF EXISTING TENANTS COVID-19, MARKET SENTIMENT
ACQUIRE PROPERTIES VIA M&A. Land search activities to expand outside TO REMAIN STRONG
Industrial properties in emerging Supply growth expected to slow down
existing major industrial regions
areas/ underperforming assets are while demand to remain stable
prominent targets.

CBRE FORUM 2021 | VIETNAM 51 CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.


RESIDENTIAL
MARKET

CBRE FORUM 2020


2021 | VIETNAM CBRE RESEARCH | © 2020
2021 CBRE, INC.
THE PANDEMIC HAS CHANGED
THE NATURE OF RESIDENTIAL SALES
Number of new launch H1 2021
▼ 9% y-o-y in HCMC (5,864 units)
H1 2020 H1 2021
▲10% y-o-y in Hanoi (7,947 units)
• Innovative sales policies
Wait and See • New product features Number of sold units H1 2021
Developer mode • Application of technology in
sales and marketing activities
▲ 28% y-o-y in HCMC (7,374 units)
▲ 20% y-o-y in Hanoi (8,073 units)

• Adapting to the “new normal”


Local Wait and See – work from home Absorption Rate*
mode
buyers • Steady fundamental demand
▲ 6 ppts in HCMC (80%)
▲ 3 ppts in Hanoi (47%)
Foreign • Pending vaccine and borders opening Avg. Selling Prices
buyers • Maintained interest in Vietnam market
▲16% y-o-y in HCMC
▲7% y-o-y in Hanoi

(*) Absorption rate: Sold units of newly launch projects in 1H 2021/ new launch supply during the period
Source: CBRE Vietnam Research, Q2 2021.

CBRE FORUM 2021 | VIETNAM 53 CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.


WORK FROM HOME: POTENTIAL LONG-TERM IMPACT

POTENTIAL LONG-TERM CHANGES

84% Locational
preferences
Internal
layouts will
Being at home
means
Prefer To may change come under watching the
Work more scrutiny bills
Remotely

Being less The need for Households WFH will


geographically designated WFH space increasingly become
constrained enables a will be considered. more energy conscious
move to a cheaper Light, and outside
location, further away space are also
Source: COVID-19 Update: potential long-term change, CBRE Research, 2020; from CBD
Working from home survey 2020, CBRE Research, 2020; important.
Workforce Sentiment Survey, CBRE Research, 2020.

CBRE FORUM 2021 | VIETNAM 54 CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.


UNLOCKING
NEW RESIDENTIAL AREAS
- INFRASTRUCTURE
IS A KEY

CBRE FORUM 2021 | VIETNAM 55 CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.


HANOI: IMPROVEMENT OF INFRASTRUCTURE SYSTEM OVER THE YEARS
FACILITATES THE DEVELOPMENT OF NEW RESIDENTIAL AREAS
Significant townships of
National Rd. 5
greater than 70ha

Existing Future

Na
tion

Ring Road 3
al R
d. 3
2

A
.1
CORE

Rdl
DISTRICTS

na
tio
Na
Thang
Long
Ave. Ring
Ro ad 2

Na
tio
na
Ri

lR
ng

d.
Ro

5b
ad
3.
5

CBRE FORUM 2021 | VIETNAM 56 CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.


Source: CBRE Vietnam Research, Q2 2021.
HCMC: MORE INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT REQUIRED TO
ADDRESS THE CURRENT SUPPLY CONSTRAINTS
My
Phu
ex oc
pr – T
es a
sw n
ay Va
n

Bie Expre
nH
Vinhomes Grand Park

oa ssway
oa d 3

–V
ung
Ring R

Tau
HC
MC
– Lon
g
exp Thanh
ress –
way Dau
Saigon Binh An G iay
CORE Aqua City

DISTRICTS
2
a d
Ro
Waterpoint g
Rin Waterpoint

Lu ong
ng
Tru y
MC – esswa
HC expr

Significant townships of greater than 70ha Infrastructure


Source: CBRE Vietnam Research, Q2 2021.
Existing Future Existing Future

CBRE FORUM 2021 | VIETNAM 57 CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.


MID-END IS THE MAIN THEME COVERING 79% OF TOTAL NEW LAUNCH IN BOTH MARKETS

HCMC Condominium, New Launch Supply, Q2 2021 Hanoi Condominium, New Launch Supply, Q2 2021
(6M: ▼ 9% y-o-y) (6M:▲10% y-o-y)
14,000 14,000
Q2: ▲ 1.3x q-o-q Q2:▼20%q-o-q
12,000 New launch slowed 12,000
due to Covid-19
down in June due to wave from May

New launch (units)


New launch (units)

10,000 10,000
Covid-19 wave in and started to
the South recover in June
8,000 8,000

6,000 6,000

4,000 4,000

2,000 2,000

0 -
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

2019 2020 2021 2019 2020 2021

◼ LUXURY: >US$4,000 psm | ◼ HIGH END: US$2,000 – 4,000 psm | ◼ MID END: US$1,000 – 2,000 psm | ◼ AFFORDABLE: < US$1,000 psm

Source: CBRE Vietnam Research, Q2 2021.

CBRE FORUM 2021 | VIETNAM 58 CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.


NEW LAUNCH HCMC: West and South took lead from East for new launch projects
IN 6M2021 Hanoi: East and West continued to be key areas of supply
contribution

HCMC Residential, Map of New Launch Supply H1 2021 Hanoi Residential, Map of New Launch Supply H1 2021

NORTH NORTH
(17%) (1%)

CENTRAL
EAST
(4%) (22%)
WEST
(31%) CORE
DISTRICTS
WEST (39%) (1%) EAST (39%)

SOUTH
SOUTH
(26%)
(19%)

Landed property Luxury High-end Mid-end Affordable

Source: CBRE Vietnam Research, Q2 2021.

CBRE FORUM 2021 | VIETNAM 59 CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.


New heights
in pricing of
luxury products

CBRE FORUM 2021 | VIETNAM 60 CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.


CONDOMINIUM PRIMARY PRICES CONTINUED TO INCREASE

HCMC Condominium, Primary prices, Q2 2021 Hanoi Condominium, Primary prices, Q2 2021
LUXURY HIGH-END MID-END AFFORDABLE LUXURY HIGH-END MID-END AFFORDABLE
$6,882 $2,577 $1,552 $954 $5,100 $2,368 $1,395 $883
(▲9.2% y-o-y) (▲0.4% y-o-y) (▲8.3% y-o-y) (▲1.6% y-o-y) (▲2.2% y-o-y) (▲ 6.7% y-o-y) (▲9.1% y-o-y)

8,000 8,000
Primary price (US$ psm)

Primary price (US$ psm)


7,000 7,000
6,000 6,000
5,000 5,000
4,000 4,000
3,000 3,000
2,000 2,000
1,000 1,000
- 0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2019 2020 2021 2019 2020 2021

LUXURY: >US$4,000 psm | HIGH END: US$2,000 – 4,000 psm | MID END: US$1,000 – 2,000 psm | AFFORDABLE: < US$1,000 psm

(*) Selling price: US$ psm (excluding VAT and quoted on NSA)
Source: CBRE Vietnam Research, Q2 2021.

CBRE FORUM 2021 | VIETNAM 61 CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.


VILLA/TOWNHOUSE SECONDARY PRICES: UPTREND ACROSS ALL PRODUCT TYPES

HCMC Villa/Townhouse, Secondary prices, Q2 2021 Hanoi Villa/Townhouse, Secondary prices, Q2 2021

VILLA TOWNHOUSE SHOPHOUSE VILLA TOWNHOUSE SHOPHOUSE

$4,901 $4,202 $5,595 $4,869 $5,127 $6,774


(▲4% (▲18% (▲6% (▲12% (▲14% (▲11%
y-o-y) y-o-y) y-o-y) y-o-y) y-o-y) y-o-y)

$10,000 $10,000

$8,000 $8,000

US$/sqm
US$/sqm

$6,000 $6,000

$4,000 $4,000

$2,000 $2,000

$0 $0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2019 2020 20212021 2019 2020 2021

Villa Townhouse Shophouse Villa Townhouse Shophouse

Secondary prices increased among all products, especially townhouses


Selling price: US$ psm (including construction, excluding VAT and quoted on land area)
Source: CBRE Vietnam Research, Q2 2021.

CBRE FORUM 2021 | VIETNAM 62 CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.


LUXURY SEGMENT PRICING: REACHING REGIONAL LEVELS

SEA prime residential prices

25,000

20,000 0.05% at >$18,000 psm

15,000
US$ psm

10,000
3% at ~$7,000 psm
Luxury
5,000
31% High-end
0
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q2
2018 2018 2018 2019 2019 2019 2019 2020 2020 2020 2020 2021 43% Mid-end
Jakarta Bangkok Hanoi HCMC Singapore Phnom Penh
24% Affordable
LUXURY: >US$4,000 psm | HIGH END: US$2,000 – 4,000 psm | MID END: US$1,000 – 2,000 psm | AFFORDABLE: < US$1,000 psm

(*) Selling price: US$ psm (excluding VAT and quoted on land area) Source: CBRE Vietnam Research, Q2 2021.

CBRE FORUM 2021 | VIETNAM 63 CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.


HCMC CONDO SECONDARY PRICE GROWTH SLOWED DOWN
YET STILL SEEING INCREASES BY 10-15% Y-O-Y

HCMC condominium, Secondary prices in notable projects, Q2 2021


5,000 35%
High-end Mid-end
Secondary selling price

Price growth rate 2021 VS. 2020(%)


4,500 30%
4,000 25%
3,500 20%
(US$ psm)

3,000 15%
10%
2,500 5%
2,000 0%
1,500 -5%
1,000 -10%
500 -15%
- -20%

Masteri An Phu (2018)

Q2 Thao Dien (2018)


Feliz En Vista (2016)
Masteri Thao Dien (2014)

Millennium (2016)

Him Lam Phu An (2016)


One Verandah (2018)

Lavita Garden (2015)

Centum Wealth (2018)


Estella Heights (2015)
Gateway Thao Dien (2015)

Vinhomes Grand Park


Lavita Charm (2017)
The Nassim (2015)

Kingdom 101 (2018)

Saigon Gateway (2017)

(2019)
Launching price 2020 asking price* Current asking price Price growth rate

LUXURY: >US$4,000 psm | HIGH END: US$2,000 – 4,000 psm | MID END: US$1,000 – 2,000 psm | AFFORDABLE: < US$1,000 psm

(*) Selling price: US$ psm (excluding VAT and quoted on land area) Source: CBRE Vietnam Research, Q2 2021.

CBRE FORUM 2021 | VIETNAM 64 CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.


HANOI SAW STRONGER PRICE GROWTH IN SELECTED MID-END CONDOS,
YET LAGGED BEHIND HCMC’S

Hanoi condominium, Secondary prices in notable projects, Q2 2021

2,500 10%
High-end Mid-end
Secondary selling price (US$ psm)

8%
2,000
6%

Y-o-y growth
1,500 4%

2%
1,000
0%
500
-2%

- -4%
Indochina Park Hill - Hoang Cau Vinhomes Seasons An Binh My Dinh Green Pearl Vinhomes Imperi a Sky Cau Giay Mipec
Plaza Hanoi Ti mes City - Skyline - Skylake - Avenue Ci ty - 2016 Pearl - - 2017 Greenbay - Garden - Center Rubik360 -
- 2009 2015 2016 2016 2015 2016 2017 2017 Point - 2019
2018

Q2 2019 Q2 2020 Q2 2021 y-o-y growth

LUXURY: >US$4,000 psm | HIGH END: US$2,000 – 4,000 psm | MID END: US$1,000 – 2,000 psm | AFFORDABLE: < US$1,000 psm

(*) Selling price: US$ psm (excluding VAT and quoted on land area) Source: CBRE Vietnam Research, Q2 2021.

CBRE FORUM 2021 | VIETNAM 65 CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.


WEAKENED RENTAL MARKETS DUE TO A DECREASE IN DEMAND
OF EXPATS AND FOREIGNERS

Expats fret
HCMC Condominium, Rental yields, Q2 2021 Hanoi Condominium, Rental yields, Q2 2021
as Vietnam
8%
8%
7%
tightens
7%
6% 6% visa policies

Rental yields
Rental yield

5% 5%
4% 4%
1 7 J u n e 2 0 2 1
3% 3%
2% 2%
1% 1%
0% 0%
District 1 District 2 Binh District 7 CBD Midtown Tay Ho West South
Thanh

2019 2020 Q2 2021 2019 2020 Q2 2021

LUXURY: >US$4,000 psm | HIGH END: US$2,000 – 4,000 psm | MID END: US$1,000 – 2,000 psm | AFFORDABLE: < US$1,000 psm

(*) Selling price: US$ psm (excluding VAT and quoted on land area)
Source: CBRE Vietnam Research, Q2 2021.

CBRE FORUM 2021 | VIETNAM 66 CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.


INNOVATIVE
SALES
POLICIES
INTRODUCED

CBRE FORUM 2021 | VIETNAM 67 CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.


INCREASINGLY COMPETITIVE SALES POLICIES TO ENTICE BUYERS

Move in
after paying

0%-20%
of unit value.

AND SALES
METHOD

ONLINE
PLATFORM

New City Thu Thiem: Move in Limited buyers per section


after paying 30% of unit value to ensure 5K policy to prevent COVID-19

CBRE FORUM 2021 | VIETNAM 68 CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.


NUMBER OF SOLD UNITS EXCEEDED SUPPLY IN BOTH HCMC AND HANOI 1H2021

HCMC Condominium, Sold units, Q2 2021 Hanoi Condominium, Sold units, Q2 2021
(6M: ▲ 28% y-o-y) (6M: ▲20% y-o-y)
16,000 16,000
Q2: ▲ 76% q-o-q Q2: ▼6% q-o-q
14,000 14,000
Sold units slowed Slight decline due
12,000 down in June due to 12,000 to disruption in
Sold units

10,000 May

Sold Units
Covid-19 wave in 10,000
8,000 the South
8,000
6,000 6,000
4,000 4,000
2,000 2,000
0 -
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2019 2020 2021 2019 2020 2021

◼ LUXURY: >US$4,000 psm | ◼ HIGH END: US$2,000 – 4,000 psm | ◼ MID END: US$1,000 – 2,000 psm | ◼ AFFORDABLE: < US$1,000 psm

High-end continued to absorb Projects from township developments covered


remaining units in township projects ~60% of sold units in H1 2021

Source: CBRE Vietnam Research, Q2 2021.

CBRE FORUM 2021 | VIETNAM 69 CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.


STRONG MOMENTUM IN LANDED PROPERTY MARKET, BUT SUPPLY
AVAILABILITY DIVERGES BETWEEN THE TWO MARKETS

HCMC Villa/Townhouse, Sold units, Q2 2021 Hanoi Villa/Townhouse, Sold units, Q2 2021

(6M: ▼ 78% y-o-y) (6M: ▲115% y-o-y)


3,000
3,000
Q2: ▲ 9.7x q-o-q
Q2: ▼ 56% q-o-q 2,500
2,500 New projects launched
Small launching
2,000 in Q2 experienced
2,000 scale per event due
good absorption
to COVID-19

Units
Units

1,500 1,500

1,000 1,000

500 500

0 0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

2019 2020 2021 2019 2020 2021

New supply Sold units New launch Sold units

Sold units dropped due to lack of supply Landed property in high demand

Source: CBRE Vietnam Research, Q2 2021.

CBRE FORUM 2021 | VIETNAM 70 CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.


MARKET
OUTLOOK

CBRE FORUM
Nguồn 2021
ảnh: | VIETNAM
Zing 71 CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.
ENCOURAGING SIGNS OF PROGRESS WITH INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS, BUT
COMPLETION SCHEDULE REMAINS UNCERTAIN

CBRE FORUM 2021 | VIETNAM 72 CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.


STRONGER NEW SUPPLY EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT TWO YEARS, BUT WILL YET
RETURN TO PRE-COVID 19 LEVEL

HCMC Condominium, New launch supply vs. Sold units Hanoi Condominium, New launch supply vs. Sold units

40,000 40,000
Forecast Forecast
35,000 35,000

30,000 30,000

25,000 25,000

20,000 20,000

15,000 15,000

10,000 10,000

5,000 5,000

- -
2018 2019 2020 2021F 2022F 2018 2019 2020 2021F 2022F

New launch supply Sold units New Launch Sold Units

Source: CBRE Vietnam Research, Q2 2021.

CBRE FORUM 2021 | VIETNAM 73 CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.


PRIMARY PRICES EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER ACROSS ALL SEGMENTS

HCMC Condominium, Forecast primary price Hanoi Condominium, Forecast primary price

LUXURY – Branded
residence project to
Forecast introduce at new
record high
$8,000 $8,000
▲ 6% y-o-y
$7,000 $7,000 Forecast

Primary Pricing (US$ psm)


Primary pricing (US$ psm)

$6,000 $6,000

$5,000 $5,000

$4,000 $4,000
▲ 7% y-o-y
$3,000 ▲ 4% y-o-y $3,000

$2,000 ▲ 3% y-o-y $2,000 ▲ 4% y-o-y

$1,000 $1,000
▲ 1% y-o-y ▲ 4% y-o-y
$- $0
2018 2019 2020 2021F 2022F 2018 2019 2020 2021F 2022F

Luxury High-end Mid-end Affordable High-end Mid-end Affordable

Source: CBRE Vietnam Research, Q2 2021.

CBRE FORUM 2021 | VIETNAM 74 CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.


FORECAST TRENDS

Home office Investors from Branded Township Vaccine visa


solutions for the South will Residence projects in and increasing
condominiums as look for more enhances luxury neighboring vaccine rates
Work From opportunities in living provinces continue will drive foreign
Home prolongs Northern to buyers back to
provinces attract Vietnam
investors

CBRE FORUM 2021 | VIETNAM 75 CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.


Disclaimer: All materials presented in this report, unless specifically indicated otherwise, is under copyright
and proprietary to CBRE. Information contained herein, including projections, has been obtained from
materials and sources believed to be reliable at the date of publication. While we do not doubt its accuracy,
we have not verified it and make no guarantee, warranty or representation about it. Readers are responsible
for independently assessing the relevance, accuracy, completeness and currency of the information of this
publication. This report is presented for information purposes only, exclusively for CBRE clients and
professionals, and is not to be used or considered as an offer or the solicitation of an offer to sell or buy or
subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. All rights to the material are reserved and none of the
material, nor its content, nor any copy of it, may be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed to
any other party without prior express written permission of CBRE. Any unauthorised publication or redistribution
of CBRE research reports is prohibited. CBRE will not be liable for any loss, damage, cost or expense incurred
or arising by reason of any person using or relying on information in this publication.

For more information regarding this presentation please contact:


CBRE Vietnam Co., Ltd. – Research & Consulting
T: +84 28 3824 6125 | E: research.vietnam@cbre.com

CBRE FORUM 2021 | VIETNAM CBRE RESEARCH | © 2021 CBRE, INC.

You might also like