Hegemony

with Chinese Characteristics

Emeritus Professor Carlyle A. Thayer

Presentation to
China’s Hegemony: Potential Political,
Economic and Security Threats to Asian Countries
Center for Southeast Asian Studies Indonesia
July 23, 2021
 Outline

1. Defining Hegemony
2. Hegemony with Chinese Characteristics
3. Chinese Hegemony in Asia
4. Contested Hegemony and Regional Order
5. Reducing the Threat of Chinese Hegemony
 1. Defining Hegemony
• Preponderant Material Power
Liberalism
• Leadership
• Dominating, coercive
• Consensus, persuasion
Neo-
Gramscian Realism Construc
-tivism
• Relationship between hegemon
and subordinate states
• Social recognition
• Structure of the international
English system
School
• Hierarchal
 2. Hegemony with Chinese Characteristics
Great Rejuvenation of the Chinese People
• Overcome century of humiliation
• Restore China’s pre-colonial spheres of influence
• Concentric circles of influence focused on Beijing
• Supplant liberal international order
• Create China-centred multilateral institutions
• Undermine U.S. alliance network
• displace U.S. Navy in first island chain
• “The Chinese nation does not carry aggressive or hegemonic
traits in its genes” (Xi Jinping)
 Hegemony with Chinese Characteristics
What Xi Jin-ping’s China Wants*
1. Keep the Chinese Communist Party in power
2. National unity and territorial integrity (Uighur separatists,
Hong Kong, Taiwan [and implicitly four shas])
3. Develop economy, avoid middle income trap
4. Environmental protection
5. First class military (peer to U.S.)
*Source: international expert on China, under Chatham House Rules (12 May 2021)
 Hegemony with Chinese Characteristics
What Xi Jin-ping’s China Wants continued*
6. Push U.S. back from first island chain maritime zone
security for second strike nuclear deterrent via SSBNs
7. Continental security – Belt and Road Initiative, grow
markets, gravitational pull towards Beijing
8. International system with China at the centre, concentric
sets of interests, shape rules based order
*Source: international expert on China, under Chatham House Rules (12 May 2021)
 Hegemony with Chinese Characteristics
Material Power
• Population 1.4 billion
• 2nd largest economy in the world ($14.6 trillion GDP)
• China to overtake U.S. economy by end of 2020s
• Largest military, coast guard and fishing fleet in the world
• Largest army and navy, second largest air force
• Largest shipbuilding industry (by weight) in the world
• Developing a credible nuclear deterrent
 Hegemony with Chinese Characteristics
Leadership Style
• China rising global power and a “new model for human
advancement” (Xi Jinping)
• Promoter of Asian values – commonalities
• Provider of public goods
• Beneficence- reward compliant states
• High-level political attention
• Coercive, bullying, intimidation towards recalcitrant states
 Hegemony with Chinese Characteristics
Subordinate States
• ‘Non-interference’ in internal affairs
• Co-optation – economic influence
• Acquisition of resources needed for development
• Development assistance and concessional loans
• Trade dependency
• Chinese enclaves
• Bilateral Strategic Partnerships
• 24 types of partnerships with 78 countries (2019)
 3. Chinese Hegemony in Asia
• One China Policy
• Framework Agreement on Comprehensive Economic
Cooperation between ASEAN and China (2002)
• Agreement on Trade in Goods (2004,2006, 2010)
• Agreement on Trade in Services (2007)
• ASEAN-China Free Trade Area (2010)
• Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership
• Belt and Road Initiative, Maritime Silk Road
• Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank
 Chinese Hegemony in Asia
• Shanghai Cooperation Organization (2001)
• China, Russia, Central Asia
• All-Round Cooperative Partnership
• Singapore
• Strategic Partnerships
• ASEAN, Brunei, Philippines
• Comprehensive Strategic Partnerships
• Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Thailand, Vietnam
 Chinese Hegemony in Asia
• Three Warfares
• public opinion warfare, psychological warfare, and legal warfare
• Displace the U.S., subordinate Japan, disrupt U.S. alliances
• Assert ‘indisputable sovereignty’ and historic rights in the
maritime domain
• Artificial islands, militarization, forward operating bases
• Grey Zone operations in South China Sea
• China Coast Guard, China Maritime Militia, fishing fleet – harass
commercial operations, intimidate fishermen
 4. Contested Hegemony and Regional Order

• Post-war U.S. hegemony in decline and under challenge

• Hub and spokes system has decayed
• Japan and Australia picking up the strategic slack
• Quad a work in progress
• Rising China has become the main rival/competitor of U.S.
• China biggest trade partner with South East Asia
• Action-reaction naval exercises and deployments
• Use of economic coercion against Australia
5. Reducing the Threat of Chinese Hegemony
Bilaterally
• Develop whole-of-government strategy
• Nurture national unity
• Self-help – buildup maritime domain awareness, maritime
law enforcement, naval-air forces
• Engage China diplomatically and politically
• Stress multipolar (muiltiplex?) regional order
• Conduct public information campaign
• Assert national interest
• Counter China’s narrative
 Reducing the Threat of Chinese Hegemony
Multilaterally: Assert ASEAN Centrality and Autonomy
• ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific
• Priority to East Asia Summit and role of dialogue partners
• Assertive leadership on crisis in Myanmar
• Withhold social recognition of China as hegemon
• Economic interdependence – CPATPP (multilateralism)
• Enhance role of ASEAN Coast Guard
• Form mini-coalitions with other littoral states
• ASEAN Plus Four (Quad)
 Hegemony
with Chinese Characteristics

Emeritus Professor Carlyle A. Thayer

Presentation to
China’s Hegemony: Potential Political,
Economic and Security Threats to Asian Countries
Center for Southeast Asian Studies Indonesia
July 23, 2021