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A Perspective On Gold
A Perspective On Gold
1
Upside Potential owing to Safe Haven during Economic
inherent demand Distress
5 that adding between 6% and 17% in gold to a hypothetical Indian pension fund average
“Our analysis illustrates
portfolio over the past decade would have resulted in higher risk-adjusted returns1“
- Source: World Gold Council Report “The relevance of gold as a strategic asset Indian edition
Historical Performance of Gold vs Debt & Equity
Gold Equity Debt
2019
24.6 10.9 9.5
Note: 1) Gold Futures prices from MCX; 2) For Equity, S&P BSE 100 TRI returns are considered; 3) For Debt, CRISIL Short Term Bond Fund Index returns
are considered; 4) Source: Bloomberg, MFI Explorer
Gold price tend to rise during & post Economic crisis
16000
4000
14000 2
3000
12000
10000 3 2000
13-Oct-08
27-Oct-08
05-Jan-09
19-Jan-09
02-Mar-09
16-Mar-09
30-Mar-09
15-Sep-08
01-Sep-08
29-Sep-08
10-Nov-08
24-Nov-08
08-Dec-08
22-Dec-08
02-Feb-09
16-Feb-09
Period Nifty Gold
Sep-08 to Mar-09 -33% 32%
Sep-08 to Dec-11 10% 154%
Gold (Rs/10 gm) (LHS) Nifty (RHS)
4
While Equities witnessed sharp correction during the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, Gold witnessed a
significant upsurge during the period owing to heightened Risk off sentiment highlighting the
importance of Gold as a safe haven asset.
5
Note: Gold(INR) price is arrived based on London AM Fix (Price In $) and RBI INR/USD reference rate
Source: LBMA, FBIL
Offers Portfolio Diversification
Weak Correlation with Equity & Debt
Adding gold over the past decade would have increased risk-adjusted returns of a hypothetical Indian
average pension fund portfolio.
Note: Based on performance between 31 December 2009 and 31 December 2019. The hypothetical Indian average pension fund portfolio is based on the allocation to
various assets as per SBI Pension Fund for Central Government Scheme as of December 2019. Allocation is based on the investment guidelines of the Pension Fund
Regulatory and Development Authority (PFRDA). It includes 11% allocation to stocks (BSE Sensex), 49% allocation to India Government Bond (S&P BSE India
Government Bond Index), 37% allocation to corporate bond (CRISIL Corporate Bond Index) and 3% to cash (Bloomberg Barclays 1-3 year Indian Treasury Unhedged
Index). The allocation to gold comes from proportionally reducing all assets. Risk-adjusted returns are calculated as the annualised return/annualised volatility.
Correlation has been arrived based on 1-yr rolling return for last 10 yrs (2009-2019) rolled on a daily basis. 1) For Equity, Nifty returns are considered; 2) For Debt,
CRISIL Short Term Bond Fund Index returns are considered; 3) Gold(INR) price is arrived based on London AM Fix (Price In $) and RBI INR/USD reference rate.
Source: LBMA, FBIL, MFI Explorer, Bloomberg, CRISIL, World Gold Council Report “The relevance of gold as a strategic asset Indian edition
Rupee Depreciation & Inflation - Favorable for Gold Prices
Rupee has depreciated against USD over long term Gold acts as a Hedge against Inflation
USD/INR Movement 600
500
400
300
200
100
Inflation Gold Rebased Values
0
Dec-09
May-19
Oct-10
Apr-12
Oct-17
Jan-06
Jun-15
Nov-06
Aug-07
Jun-08
Mar-09
Nov-13
Mar-16
Jan-17
Jul-11
Feb-13
Sep-14
Jul-18
Feb-20
Note: 1) Gold(INR) price is arrived based on London AM Fix (Price In $) and RBI INR/USD reference rate 2) For Inflation, India Consumer Price Index for Industrial
Workers with Base Year 2001 has been taken.
Source: LBMA, FBIL , Bloomberg, http://labourbureau.gov.in, MFI Explorer.
Gold prices depicting a trend similar to 2008 GFC
Gold vs Nifty
44000
1
13000
42000
40000 11000
2
38000
9000
36000
34000
3 7000
16-Mar-20
23-Mar-20
30-Mar-20
13-Apr-20
20-Apr-20
27-Apr-20
3-Feb-20
2-Mar-20
9-Mar-20
6-Apr-20
10-Feb-20
17-Feb-20
24-Feb-20
Gold prices rebounded sharply after witnessing a short correction during mid of March. Whereas Equity
market witnessed sharp correction since February when Covid-19 concerns began in India.
5
Note: Gold(INR) price is arrived based on London AM Fix (Price In $) and RBI INR/USD reference rate
Source: LBMA, FBIL
Key Triggers for Gold
Rupee Depreciation
Store of Value
Global Uncertainties
COVID-19: Its Impact & Measures taken so far
• Covid-19 driven contraction in economic activity will lead to sharp recession
1 As per IMF, the global recession is likely to be at least as bad
across the World.
as 2008 GFC.
• 1HCY19 is expected
2 to witness double digit decline in economic growth in
many parts of the World.
3
• To mitigate the impact of Corona Virus, global policymakers are responding
with unprecedented level of monetary easing (money printing).
4
• Also Governments of various countries have announced unprecedented level
of fiscal stimulus to address the likely economic slowdown.
5
Gold poised for a multi year uptrend
• Gold is considered a safe haven during heightened risk-off sentiment & flight to safety.
Gold prices are reflecting
1 similar trend as during 2008 GFC.
• Inflation is expected to rise owing to fiscal & monetary measures taken by governments
& central banks 4of most countries.
Different plans shall have a different expense structure. The performance details provided herein are of Growth Plan (Regular Plan).
4
B: Benchmark, AB: Additional Benchmark
Past performance may or may not be sustained in future and the same may not necessarily provide the basis for comparison with other investment. Performance
of the schemes (wherever provided) are calculated basis CAGR for the past 1 year, 3 years, 5 years and since inception. In case, the start/end date of the concerned
period is non-business day (NBD), the NAV of the previous date is considered for computation of returns.
For performance of other funds managed by the Fund Manager, please refer slide 13
5
Source : MFI Explorer, As on April 30, 2020
Product Label
(Nippon India Gold Savings Fund - An open ended Fund of Fund Scheme)
PRODUCT LABEL
Nippon India Gold Savings Fund is suitable for investors who are
seeking*:
Name of Scheme This product is suitable for investors who are seeking*:
Before making any investments, the readers are advised to seek independent professional advice, verify the contents
in order to arrive at an informed investment decision. None of the Sponsors, the Investment Manager, the Trustee,
their respective directors, employees, affiliates or representatives shall be liable in any way for any direct, indirect,
special, incidental, consequential, punitive or exemplary damages, including on account of lost profits arising from
the information contained in this material.
Mutual Fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully.
Thank you for your time!