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Future Need for Petroleum Engineering

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Future Need for Petroleum Engineering

Abstract
The need for petroleum engineers to provide energy for the world population in the upcoming decades
and the role of SPE in this regard are discussed in this paper. There have been recent papers suggesting
that there is a diminished or no need for petroleum engineering (e.g., SPE 194764, The End of Petroleum
Engineering as We Know It; SPE 195908, Petroleum Engineering Enrollment: Past, Present and Future).
This is simply inaccurate and the proliferation of their message is alarming in that it may deprive the
industry from having the required talent to produce the energy the world needs from natural gas and oil
for decades to come.

Engineering disciplines, including petroleum, have been transforming all the time. The practices we use
today have little resemblance to what we did 20 years ago. They will continue to evolve, not stop, due to
three major points:

1. Although the percentage of the energy from oil and natural gas the world needs is expected to
decline from about 53% to about 48% over the next 30 years, the amount of production is
actually expected to increase by 20% for oil and 50% for natural gas. This is due mainly to
expected increase in world population (from 7.5 to 9 billion) and improvements in the economic
conditions of developing countries. Considerable advances and efforts in all aspects of
petroleum engineering (from drilling under more challenging conditions to completion and
production from deeper wells to increasing recovery from heavy oil and through EOR) are
required to meet those higher production levels. We know that even maintaining production at
the current level is a challenge.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The information and manuscript of this paper were developed before the pandemic of COVID-
19 affected most of the world. This is why the effects of this pandemic are not discussed.
Nevertheless, it is a reasonable assumption that the pandemic will not affect the long range for
energy from oil and natural gas which is the subject of this paper. The International Energy
Agency report released in October 2020 (IEA 2020) predicted natural gas production returning
to pre-pandemic level in 2021 and oil production returning to pre-pandemic level in 2023.
2

2. Climate change is real. As engineers we do not debate the science, and we should transform
our industry in every possible way to minimize any adverse effects of our work on the
environment and to comply with state regulations.
One manifestation of this has been the measured increase in historical natural gas production
and simultaneous decrease in CO2 emissions.
Another example as one of the major factors in reducing Green House Gases is to inject and
store CO2 in underground formations. Petroleum engineers will be the ones tasked with finding
answers to the challenge of injecting in already fluid-saturated formations.
3. With the recent developments in Data Science and Engineering Analytics, there is a greater
need for petroleum engineers with an understanding of physics to take advantage of these
improvements and optimize the processes we use (Anadarko’s SPE 187222 Creating Value by
Implementing an Integrated Production Surveillance and Optimization System – An Operator’s
Perspective and Chevron’s SPE 181437 Application of Machine Learning in Transient
Surveillance in a Deep-Water Oil Field, are good examples).

Required and expected efforts by various stake holders of SPE; educational institutions; national and
international operators, service companies, and regulatory bodies to provide needed petroleum
engineers are discussed.

Introduction
Relevant discussions about petroleum engineering, its value, scope, and continuous developments have
been going on for a long time. The record shows that discussions have involved topics ranging from
whether injecting water in the reservoir will actually ruin it, to the practicality of offshore drilling, to the
value of drilling drain holes (early name of horizontal wells). With the advent of concerns about climate
change and introduction of renewable energy resources the discussion about the future need of
petroleum engineering took an added non-technical dimension with various opinions appearing in SPE
publications and social media. In this paper, an objective look at properly addressing the future need of
petroleum engineering is presented. We begin by discussing the special attributes of petroleum
engineering that distinguish it from other disciplines and the continuous changes and developments that
occurred in the past showing that expected changes in the future should not be alarming. The expected
need of oil and natural gas in the mix of energy resources is then discussed. The role of oil and natural
gas in the climate change space is analyzed while attempting to point out the needed actions to reduce
greenhouse gases in the environment and the important role petroleum engineering can make in solving
the Carbon Capture Use and Storage issue. Current efforts by the industry like the Oil and Gas Carbon
Initiative (OGCI) and by SPE like the Gaia project are highlighted. And, the more straightforward effects
of Data Science and Digital Engineering on the future petroleum engineering are addressed.

Uniqueness of Petroleum Engineering

The aspect of petroleum engineering that distinguishes it from other engineering disciplines is that
petroleum engineers do not design the systems they work with. Unlike an engine designed by a
mechanical engineer or a structure designed by a civil engineer, the oil and gas reservoirs are given to
the petroleum engineer. In this regard petroleum and mining engineering are similar. In the case of mining
engineering, however, the system is usually physically accessible to the engineer and direct
measurement of the pertinent properties pretty much throughout the system is possible. In petroleum
engineering, the system is not physically accessible by the engineers who have then to rely on indirect
measurements to determine the properties of the system. This is the similarity between petroleum
engineering and groundwater hydrology (Kamal, 2009). In spite of this challenge, petroleum engineers
have nevertheless found ways to characterize these resources and optimally drill, complete, produce,
and manage oil and gas fields for more than 100 years with consistent, and sometimes astonishing,
improvements.

Developments of Petroleum Engineering Over Time

 3

This section is not intended to cover the entire continuous developments and improvements that occurred
in petroleum engineering over time, but to highlight some of them.

The first oil well in modern petroleum engineering was drilled onshore by Edwin Drakes in Titusville,
Pennsylvania, USA (Fig. 1) in 1895 and reached total depth of 69.5 ft. As Fig. 2 shows today we drill
offshore in water depth more than 3000 m and reach total depth exceeding 30,000 ft.

Figure 1 – Drake’s first oil well Figure 2 – Deep water drilling milestones

In 1947 the first experimental fracture stimulation was conducted by Stanolind in Hugoton field in Grant
County, Kansas (Fig. 3) with 1000 gallons of Napalm and no sand. On March 17, 1949 the first two
commercial fractures stimulations were conducted in Stephens County Oklahoma (just south of
Chickasha, OK on hwy 81) and Archer County, Texas (slightly further south into Texas). They were
conducted with Lease Crude and Gasoline with sand and nearly doubled production. As a result, an
average of one fracture job per day was conducted in that first year or so.

Fracturing technology developed as a core completion practice and in the late 70’s and early 80’s
massive hydraulic fractures (Fig. 4) were routinely conducted in Micro Darcy formations. Treatments in
excess of 8 million pounds of ceramic and thousands of bbls of fluid were pumped in South Texas
(Wilcox) and created fractures that were well over 2,500 ft in half-length in East Texas (Cotton Valley
Taylor Sand). Several fractures created in Wyoming (Wamsutter & Frontier formations) actually
communicated with offset wells over a mile away.

As fracturing technology continued to develop, it was combined with horizontal drilling to access Nano
Darcy formations with treatments that used mostly water as the fracturing fluid or surfactant and water
plus a lot of small diameter sand (100 mesh or 40/70). On average fractures are created in 10 to 20
stages with 4 to 6 clusters per stage (50 to 120 potential fractures), and are generally 700-1000 plus
feet of half length (depending on well spacing lateral length and fracture hits).
4

Figure 3 – Stanolind first fracture (1949) Figure 4 – Massive hydraulic fracture well site
There was also considerable development of reservoir engineering over the years. We started with
empirical Decline Curve Analysis, Arps (1944) which is essentially the front runner of today’s Machine
Learning. We then moved to material balance (zero-D, or batch reservoir simulator) that was
augmented by the works of Muskat (1937 and 1949), Schilthuis (1936) and van Everdingen and Hurst
(1949). Use of finite-difference numerical solutions revolutionized reservoir engineering with reservoir
simulator capable of considering the extensive heterogeneity existing in the formations with all fluids
flowing through them during various stages of depletion and injection. It also allowed the integration of
reservoir description obtained from geologic and petrophysics data. Reservoir simulators with Giga
cells handling multiphase flow are in use today, Obi et al. (2014).

As the above examples show, petroleum engineers consistently and capably adapted and developed
the needed tools and technology to produce subsurface energy resources, often facing increasing
difficulties with harsher environments and more complicated systems. It is worth noting that other
engineering disciplines also made considerable advances in their respective fields over the years,
typically commensurate with the simultaneous advances that were made in increasing computer power,
capacity and speed. There is no reason to think that similar advances cannot be made for the
challenges that lie ahead.

World Future Energy Need and Mix

Several predictions for the world future energy need and mix are being made and routinely updated by
governmental and industrial groups. First, we need to recognize that the type of energy the world uses
is continuously changing as shown in Fig. 5.
 5

Figure 5 – History of the world energy transition

Second, two factors will affect the future energy need, the expected increase in world population from
around 7.5 to 9.0 billion and the increase in energy as quality of life for more people in developing
countries continue to improve. Fig. 6 and 7 illustrate this point.

Figure 6 Expected increase in world population

6

Figure 7 1.1 billion people without access to electricity (After IEA World Energy Outlook, 2017)

Finally, Fig. 8 -10 show consistent predictions among various groups that oil production should stay flat
or slightly decline in 2040 and natural gas production should continue to increase. They show decline in
coal production, the same level of production from nuclear and hydro and a significant increase in
energy produced via renewables. Also, the non-combustible use of oil, gas and coal grows robustly,
despite increasing regulations on the use of plastics as shown in Fig.11 (BP Energy Outlook 2019).
 7

Figure 8 c Energy transition mix (after Chevron Lantern 2019) Figure 9 Energy transition mix – BP 2018 Outlook

Figure 10 Energy Production (After EIA Report 2020)

Figure 11 Non-combustible use of oil and gas (After BP Energy Outlook 2019)

An important point to consider is that production from current oil and gas reservoirs are experiencing
common production decline, therefore, we will be facing a significant gap to close if we are to deliver our
expected share of the world energy in the coming decades. This is clearly shown in Fig. 12 (Chevron
Lantern Document 2019).
8

Figure 12 Expected gap in oil production (After Chevron Lantern 2019)

Role of Petroleum Engineering in Addressing the Climate Change Challenge

Climate change is a very important problem and we need big efforts to address. But this is a global
problem, and the transition is huge and costly, and as shown above, our civilization will remain reliant
on fossil fuels for decades. Access to fossil fuels is critical to our way of life, and to raising the living
standards around the world. So, since it has to be done, it is a noble and important thing to be involved
in extracting it as safely, economically, and environmentally responsible as possible. Three efforts are
needed in this regard;
1. Educating our engineers
2. Explaining the position and efforts of the oi industry
3. Actively using engineering skills and domain expertise to help solve the problem

As for educating our people, SPE should be a force for sensible moderation. Climate change denial is
currently common among our SPE members. Efforts should be made to educate our members about
climate change, and the SPE should speak out vocally against climate change denial. In this regard,
SPE Gaia initiative whose objective is to provide the oil & gas industry and representatives of its
stakeholders with the means to co-create new actions that rise to the scale of urgency of the planet’s
sustainability challenges—reinforcing existing efforts and introducing new radical ideas is a reasonable
start. They are developing a portfolio of events around the world hosted by SPE and dedicated to
sustainability themes including global warming. It is a movement enabling the individual members of
the SPE to participate actively in addressing the planet's sustainable development challenges and
supporting the industry in ensuring it continues to play a positive role in society whilst addressing the
externalities of the lifestyle hydrocarbons have enabled and which are not sustainable.

Efforts towards explaining the industry’s position include the message we are now hearing from major
corporations. An example is the OGCI September 2019 report, where the Chief Executive Officers of
the twelve largest oil and gas international and national oil companies address their efforts to reduce
methane emissions, reduce carbon dioxide emissions, and accelerating carbon capture use and
storage. But this still is not the universal message we'd get from everyone and every organization in the
industry and we have some work to complete in this area.

Probably, the most exciting and useful aspect of mitigating climate change for petroleum engineers is
actual work we can do in this area. It is widely accepted that storage of carbon dioxide in subterranean
formations offers one of the practical, technology-ready, and may be the only method to have
measurable effect towards reducing carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Blach (2020), mentions that
 9

although not initiated to save the planet, more than 100 CO2 projects are currently in the Permian Basin
and Gulf Coast of the United States and according to the U. S. Bureau of Ocean Energy Management
only 3-4% of potential U.S. CO2sites are currently under flood while remaining sites are awaiting CO2.
The CO2 volumes injected are in the same order of magnitude that the Paris Climate agreement says is
needed to store CO2over the next 20 years. Zoback (2019) shows the only realistic pathway to
significantly reduce Carbon emissions in the next 20 years is through storage underground (Fig. 13).

Figure 13 Carbon Dioxide Subterranean Storage Options (After Zoback 2019)

As reservoir engineers know, injecting CO2 in depleted reservoirs is practical and manageable as we
continue to withdraw fluids from the formation and replace them with CO2 but injecting in formations
already filled with fluids is not practical. However, one of the challenges the world will face shortly is
water shortage. There is a need to locate underground aquifers from which fresh water can be
produced. A job for our Geoscientists and petroleum engineers. CO2can then be injected in these
aquifers.

Another area for reducing CO2 emissions is increasing the ratio of natural gas production in the mix of
the energy resources as shown in Fig. 14 from the recent history of increased natural gas production
from tight / shale formations (Zoback 2019).
10

Figure 14 Switching Fuels Works (After Zoback 2019)

Data Science and Engineering Analytics

Use of data analytics, machine learning, etc. erupted in various segments of the society over the last few
years and that included the oil industry. Actually, petroleum engineers have been developing technology
in this area for more than 30 years (Allain and Horne 1990, Al-Kaabi et al. 1990, Mac Allister and Kamal
1991) to enhance our abilities to manage oil and gas reservoirs. Recent developments in this area led to
very helpful results that benefited field operations (e.g., Sankaran et al. 2017) as well as performance
analyses (e.g., Chang et al. 2019).

Fig. 15 (Sankaran et. al 2017) shows that a machine learning algorithm correctly matched the wells
productivity indices that were calculated using pressure transient analysis of actual shut-in data thus
eliminating the need to field operation of actually shutting in the well and losing production

Figure 15 Machine learning based productivity index calculations offsets need for shut-in (after Sankaran 2017)

Fig. 16 (Chang et. al 2019) shows how a machine learning algorithm successfully matched the calculated
permeability, skin, and productivity indices for deep-water wells equipped with a permanent downhole
gauge. Large number of buildup tests were obtained every time the wells production was interrupted by
 11

field operations as shown in the upper left side of the figure. Whereas an engineer would have spent an
average of two hours analyzing data from a test, the machine learning algorithm was able to complete
the task in less than 4 seconds.

Figure 16 Application of Machine Learning in Transient Surveillance (After Change e Al. 2019)

Machine learning in computer technology is the equivalent of inverse problem solving in engineering. In
both cases the input and output variables are known, for example rate change and pressure in pressure
transient analysis, and a system that produces these parameters is sought. In engineering, we have been
using physical laws to obtain the system properties, in machine learning a mathematical function without
physics-based models.

Using data science and engineering analytics, like the two examples cited above, should help field
operations and engineers by reducing the tasks and time required to calculate outcomes. Therefore,
allowing engineers to focus on field management scenarios and optimizations, not to replace the
engineer. These techniques are valid only as far as given physical attributes of the field operation have
affected the field performance and are thus considered in the algorithm. Once other physical changes
occur that have yet to influence the performance, then the algorithms cannot predict the outcome.
Consider for example an oil field producing above the bubble point pressure. A machine learning
algorithm was developed to match and predict future performance. Once the field pressure drops below
the bubble point pressure, gas comes out of solution and relative permeability affects the performance,
the non-physics-based model will not produce needed results. Engineers are needed to determine what
algorithms are valid to use. This argument would be even more valid while managing an entire field with
producers and injectors in multiple heterogeneous layers with varying fluid properties.

Petroleum Engineering Education

As mentioned earlier, the oil industry has been developing over more than 100 years, therefore, it is not
surprising that petroleum engineering education has been evolving all the time. The recent challenges
facing the industry are impacting petroleum engineering education and as usual universities in general
12

and petroleum engineering departments in particular are more than adequately responding to the
required changes (Feder 2019). Feder states that among other changes “many programs now integrate
data analytics into courses that are mainstays in petroleum engineering curricula. At Texas Tech
University, geostatistics is included as a course in the junior year. New methods to teach both technical
and communication skills are incorporated into a new initiative from Marietta College called PioPetro.
Since 2004, USC has offered a smart oilfield technology class co-taught by faculty from engineering and
information technologies. At Texas A&M, data science and machine learning are integrated
systematically throughout the engineering curriculum, and data analytics is now offered as a separate
course. Colorado School of Mines offers a minor in data analytics.” Actually, students are demanding
they take courses in the big data domain as they are smart enough to recognize this will help them in
their careers.

Discussion will also continue about whether 4 years of university education are sufficient for a bachelor
degree. In several countries a minimum of 5-years is required to obtain a B. S. in any engineering
discipline. In the U.S. adding an additional 5th year would be highly unlikely as it will add significant cost
for the students. There are several variations being considered to augment bachelor and master degrees
so students can get one extra year and be more prepared for the industry (Feder 2019). Several
universities are offering a 5-year program for an expedited bachelor and master degrees in all
engineering disciplines. Each university will continue to determine the best way forward to its students
and implement needed changes and of course it is healthy to continue in this direction.

In the United States, the number of students enrolled in petroleum engineering departments will continue
to change with oil prices (Heinze et al. 2019). In Asia and Africa student enrollment and membership in
SPE student chapters are growing significantly (Feder 2019).

Concluding Remarks
1. Petroleum engineering has been evolving over the last century to address both technical and non-
technical changes with evident success in meeting the world need of energy from this sector. There
is no reason to think this will change given the challenges we face today.
2. World need for energy from oil and natural gas will change from the lower 50% to the upper 40% of
the total energy mix over the next 3 or 4 decades. However, the volumes needed will increase as the
world population and demand of energy per capita will continue to rise.
3. Petroleum engineers and our entire industry should be aware of the climate change challenge and
that access to fossil fuels is critical to our way of life, and to rising living standards around the world.
So, since it has to be done, it is a noble and important thing to be involved in extracting it as safely,
economically, and environmentally responsible as possible. Both the industry and SPE should work
towards educating our members, developing efforts to mitigate the problem and advocating our
positions. Several efforts are already underway in this regard.
4. Petroleum engineering is a significant (probably the most significant) element in carbon storage
through injection in subterranean formations (either for enhancing oil and gas production or simply
storing it) and perhaps we’ll need to produce water from subterranean aquifers both for human
consumption and to open space for injecting CO2.
5. Surge in the area of big data and engineering analytics will enhance petroleum engineers’ ability to
better manage resources, and is being embraced by the whole spectrum of the industry from
educational institutions to national and international operators.
6. Petroleum engineering education will continue to evolve with continuous changes in required skills
from employers and scientific and technology developments. Each university should continue to chart
the way it prepares the students with potential help from SPE and other universities if they perceive
that is needed.

Acknowledgments
Thanks to Aysegul Dastan, Greg Sanza, and Herb Sebastian who reviewed the manuscript and made
valuable suggestions.
 13

Abbreviations and Nomenclatures

AEO2020 U.S. Energy Information Administration Annual Energy Outlook in 2020

BP, bp British Petroleum
EIA U. S. Energy Information Administration
IEA International Energy Agency
NPS IEA New Policies Scenario (“most likely” outcome based on new energy policies)
PI60 Productivity Index assuming pressure measured at 60 minutes is the reservoir pressure
SDGs U.N.’s Sustainable Development Goals
SDS IEA Sustainable Development Scenario (trajectory necessary to achieve the objectives of
the Paris Agreement)

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