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Decumbent development: Urban sprawl in the Guwahati Metropolitan Area,

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Article  in  Singapore Journal of Tropical Geography · April 2020

DOI: 10.1111/sjtg.12317

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 doi:10.1111/sjtg.12317

Decumbent development: Urban sprawl in

the Guwahati Metropolitan Area, India
Chandra Kant Pawe and Anup Saikia
Gauhati University, Guwahati, India

Correspondence: Anup Saikia (email: asaikia@gauhati.ac.in)

Urban sprawl has become a global phenomenon as an outcome of growing population and rapid
urbanization. Previous studies have addressed the rising incidence of uncontrollable urban devel-
opment, particularly in peri-urban areas of cities, leading to chronic urban sprawl. The city of
Guwahati, a million city in north east India, has expanded significantly in recent years. In this arti-
cle, the links between population and growth of built-up areas were examined using geo-spatial
techniques and remotely sensed datasets. The results indicate that the sprawl has accentuated in
recent years. The intensity of land use remained uneven due to marked variations in the distribu-
tion of built-up areas, plausibly an outcome of unplanned urban growth. If current trends are any-
thing to go by, future urban sprawl could pose serious threats to the vulnerable eco-sensitive and
peri-urban areas of Guwahati. Secondary cities have unfortunately received scant attention in
urban policy research, and Guwahati, epitomizes urban woes in a developing country.

Keywords: urban sprawl, Landsat data, kernel density estimation, Shannon’s entropy, contiguity
metrics, Guwahati Metropolitan Area

Accepted: 20 January 2020

Introduction
Since the latter half of the last century, the world’s urban population has recorded a
never before experienced growth in the history of human civilization. Fifty-four per
cent of the world’s population inhabited its urban areas (WHO, 2018), a trend that will
accentuate in the years ahead. By 2050, the urban areas will shelter more than 66 per
cent of the world’s population and developing countries from Africa and Asia regions
would experience approximately 90 per cent of urbanization (UN, 2014, 2016).
Remarkably, the Asian population is expected to rise from 42.5 per cent in 2010 to
64.6 per cent in 2050 (UN, 2014). Such a spurt of population will bring about rapid
growth of urban areas (Zhao, 2010). In most developing countries, the phenomenon of
accelerated urban growth sustained by population has become problematic (Tewolde &
Cabral, 2011). Urban growth, often characterized by random and unplanned develop-
ment has resulted in the loss of vegetation and agricultural land, biodiversity degrada-
tion, heat island effects, habitat fragmentation and concerns of sustainable
development worldwide (Griggs et al., 2014; Pawe & Saikia, 2018; Souza et al., 2015;
Son & Thanh, 2017). This has caused concern among administrators, economists, envi-
ronmentalists, and urban planners.
Although much remains unexplained about the direction and form of uncontrolla-
ble urban growth, a dispersed or sprawled pattern is discernible around the world
(Shahraki et al., 2011; Bhatta, 2010). Urban sprawl, once confined to developed coun-
tries, is now a global phenomenon with urbanization spreading to the Occidental realm
and rapid population growth occurring therein (Hamidi & Ewing, 2014; Gao et al.,
2016; Kaza, 2013; Angel, 2012). Studies on urban sprawl have been carried out across

Singapore Journal of Tropical Geography 41 (2020) 226–247

© 2020 Department of Geography, National University of Singapore and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd
Urban sprawl in Guwahati, India 227

diverse contexts in Europe (Venanzoni et al., 2017; Nazarnia et al., 2016), North Amer-
ica (Monkkonen et al., 2018), South America (Barrera & Henríquez, 2017; Espindola
et al., 2017), Africa (Kleemann et al., 2017; Osman et al., 2016), Asia (Mosammam
et al., 2016; Nengroo et al., 2017), and Australia (Shanahan, 2017). Understanding and
measuring urban sprawl has been critical considering its varying characterization
(Bhatta et al., 2010). Several metrics such as density, continuity, concentration, cluster-
ing, centrality, proximity and Shannon’s entropy have been used to measure sprawl
(Galster et al., 2001; Angel et al., 2007; Mosammam et al., 2016).
Since 1947, India’s population has doubled and its urban population increased five-
fold (Sahana et al., 2018). Urban agglomerations (UA), in India doubled from 231 in
1971 to 475 in 2011 (Census of India, 2011) with the latter poised to possess the largest
concentration of UAs in the world by 2021 (Taubenböck et al., 2009). With an estimate
of over a million persons in 2016 (UN, 2014), Guwahati, the largest city in northeast
India, has witnessed a high rate of population growth since 1972 (Mahadevia et al.,
2014). The city developed into a major hub for educational, administrative, political,
commercial and industrial establishments, attracting migrants from neighbouring areas
(Hemani & Das, 2016). Despite such expansion, the city remained unplanned. Gradu-
ally, it expanded into the peri-urban areas leading to urban sprawl (Hemani & Das,
2016). Various studies examined urban growth and urban land transformation in
Guwahati (Mahadevia et al., 2014; TERI, 2013; Yadav & Barua, 2016; Hemani & Das,
2016; Bora, 2008; Pawe & Saikia, 2018). Research on the relationship between the
growth of built-up tracts and the occurrence of urban sprawl was not, however, forth-
coming. Therefore, it has become imperative to understand and analyze the process of
urban growth experienced by Guwahati. This paper seeks to examine the prevalence of
urban sprawl in the Guwahati Metropolitan Area (GMA) in the context of its growth
trajectories.

Defining urban sprawl

The definition of urban sprawl is widely debated (Bhatta et al., 2010; Sudhira & Ram-
achandra, 2007; Angel et al., 2007; Wilson et al., 2003) since its causes and conse-
quences are determined by the cultural, geographical and political characteristics of an
area (Torrens, 2008; Besussi et al., 2010; Mosammam et al., 2016). It can be conceived
as the process of low density (Bhatta et al., 2010) and inefficient urban land expansion
(Schneider et al., 2015; Xu & Min, 2013) into hitherto non-urban areas including the
countryside (Theobald, 2001). In India, urban sprawl is the result of rural-urban migra-
tion wherein low and middle-income householders seek affordable housing in the
fringes or at the edges of an urban area (Sudhira et al., 2004) leading to dispersed
growth of settlements in the peri-urban areas (Shaw & Das, 2017). Urban sprawl
results in various adverse environmental, social and economic effects (EEA & JCR,
2006; Hasse & Lathrop, 2003; Nazarnia et al., 2016). Environmental fallouts include
agricultural land shortage, loss of fertile land, declines in open spaces, biodiversity and
ecosystem services, increased GHG emission rates and water pollution (Haber, 2007;
McKinney, 2002; Atu et al., 2013; Tu et al., 2007; Siedentop & Fina, 2010; Glaeser &
Kahn, 2004). Socio-economic fallouts include increased commuting time, traffic con-
gestion, deteriorating public health and infrastructure, social threats and insecurity, loss
of community sense and cultural values etc. (Ewing, 1997; Putnam, 2000; Pereira
et al., 2014).
228 Chandra Kant Pawe and Anup Saikia

Study area
Guwahati, the premier urban center of Assam, is the only million city in north-east
India (TERI, 2013; Pawe & Saikia, 2018). Its unique location, and transport connectiv-
ity along with its growing population has made Guwahati among the 100 most rapidly
developing cities globally (Satterthwaite, 2007; Hemani & Das, 2016). With elevation
varying from 49 to 55 m amsl, the city sits on an undulating topography, surrounded
and interspersed by a number of hills and wetlands. The hills, most of which are desig-
nated as Reserved Forests (RF) that are ostensibly protected areas, are covered with Sal
forests, mixed moist deciduous forests, evergreen forests, bamboos and scrub forests
(Yadav & Barua, 2016). The narrow valleys and plain areas amidst the hills are dappled
with important wetlands, locally known as ‘beels’, such as the Deepor beel, a Ramsar
site, along with other wetlands. A warm and humid climate with a minimum tempera-
ture of 12
C in winter and a maximum summer temperature of 37
C prevails over the
city. The city experiences a typical wet summer and dry winter seasonal climate with
precipitation ranging between 200–350 mm/year. Guwahati experienced a phenome-
nal growth from a mere 8000 persons in 1891 to approximately one million by 2011
(Census of India, 2011). It developed from a first class municipal town with 8 wards
encompassing 2.68 km2 in 1876 into the present not insubstantial urban agglomeration
of 275 km2. The present study considers 71 spatial units/zones of the city demarcated
by the Guwahati Metropolitan Development Authority (GMDA) (GMDA, 2009). The
city’s favourable location (Figure 1) and connectivity make it ideal for future develop-
ment as a gateway to south-east Asia, in keeping with the government of India’s Act
East Policy (Pawe & Saikia, 2018).

Database
Landsat imageries were used to evaluate and measure the changes in built-up areas
(BUA) and examine occurrences, if any, of urban sprawl in GMA during 1976, 1989,
2002 and 2015. Satellite images, mostly cloud free with minimal seasonal variability,
were acquired from the United States Geology Survey (http://earthexplorer.usgs.gov)
(Table 1). Supplementary data such as topographical maps were procured from Survey
of India office, Guwahati, and census data from Census of India (censusindia.gov.in). A
land use map of Guwahati (1990) prepared by the Assam Science Technology and
Environment Council (ASTEC) and an administrative boundary map of the city were
acquired from the GMDA. Additionally, Google Earth images and field observations
were collected across the study area to serve as the basis for accuracy assessment.

Methodology
Image pre processing
The satellite images were geometrically rectified and projected to UTM 46N, WGS84
datum. The Fast Line-of-sight Atmospheric Analysis of Hypercubes (FLAASH) function in
ENVI 5.1 (www.harrisgeospatial.com) was applied for the atmospheric correction of
Landsat imageries. Landsat MSS data was recalibrated for seamless integration with the
Landsat TM, ETM and OLI datasets used in the analysis. Geographic information system
(GIS) along with satellite datasets are a widely preferred methodology (Bagheri & Tousi,
2018; Jiang et al., 2016; Nengroo et al., 2017; Shaw & Das, 2017; Yue et al., 2016), since
they facilitate the analysis and visualization of spatial data (Anderson, 2009).
Urban sprawl in Guwahati, India 229

Figure 1. Location of the study area.

Source: Figure produced by authors based on GMDA data (2009) and Census of India 2011.

Image classification and accuracy assessment

The increase in BUA of a city demonstrates its urban growth. As such, the built-up
growth of GMA was examined for 1976, 1989, 2002 and 2015. The image classification
process was undertaken using supervised technique and subsequently, BUAs were
identified. The selection of training sites was guided by reference data such as topo-
graphical maps and Google Earth images. Based on the spectral signatures collected,
the spectral classification of the Landsat images were performed using the widely
adopted maximum likelihood classifier (Mosammam et al., 2016; Saikia et al., 2013;
Sharma et al., 2017). Post-classification errors such as misclassification were modified
applying a recoding function corroborated by ground truth verification (Pawe & Saikia,
230 Chandra Kant Pawe and Anup Saikia

Table 1. Population growth in GMA.

Year Population CAGR (%)

1951 97,389 -
1961 1,99,482 7.43
1971 2,93,219 3.93
1976** 3,57,257 4.03
1981* 4,35,280 4.03
1989** 5,97,078 4.03
1991 6,46,169 4.03
2001 8,90,773 3.26
2002** 8,98,261 0.84
2011 9,68,549 0.84
2015** 10,58,080 2.23

Sources: GMDA (2009) and Census of India (2011). * No Census could be conducted in Guwahati in
1981. The population figures have been extrapolated on the basis of the Compound Annual Growth
Rate (CAGR) of 1971–1991. ** Estimated population which have been derived based on the population
and CAGR of the preceding year (Estimated population = present population*(1 + CAGR)^ number of
years).

2018; Sharma et al., 2017). The accuracy assessment was performed for 200 random
locations within the study area and overall accuracies ranging from 84 per cent (1976)
to 88.8 per cent (2015) were obtained. Usually an overall accuracy of 85 per cent is
considered suitable for remotely sensed assessments (Anderson et al., 1976). The meth-
odology is detailed in a flowchart (Figure 2).

Urban sprawl assessment

Although there are several techniques available to measure urban sprawl, their use
depends on the researchers’ perspective of characterizing whether an area is undergo-
ing sprawl or not. Since the BUA within GMA and its population have experienced a
continuous increase in recent decades, the present study included the following indices
namely growth rate, density metrics and statistical metrics that are widely applied in
urban sprawl research (Sudhira et al., 2004; Bhatta, 2012; Angel et al., 2007;
Mosammam et al., 2016; Punia & Singh, 2012; Bhatta et al., 2010).

BUA and urban growth

BUAs are generally considered as an important parameter to quantify urban sprawl
(Torrens & Alberti, 2000; Barnes et al., 2001; Sudhira et al., 2004). The BUA class
encompasses residential areas, apartment buildings, shopping centres, industrial and
commercial facilities, parking lots, major streets and highways (Shahraki et al., 2011).
The proportion of area covered by impervious surfaces or BUA provides an ideal repre-
sentation of development (Barnes et al., 2001). Therefore, the level of land develop-
ment or urban growth is directly associated with the amount of BUA present in a
region. In the present study, the BUA was computed for each of the 71 spatial units for
the four years under analysis. These increases were coupled with the annual growth
rate of BUAs. The results demonstrated the process and pattern of urban growth and
sprawl in the GMA.
"
1=d #
Bend
AGR = 100%x −1
Bstart
Urban sprawl in Guwahati, India 231

Figure 2. Methodology flowchart.

Source: Figure produced by authors.

where, AGR is the annual growth rate of the built-up areas for a particular period. Bend
and Bstart are the built-up areas at the end and start of that period respectively, and d is
the time interval in years.

Population growth and increase of BUA

The growth rate of population and BUA are two important aspects of urban sprawl.
BUA is directly correlated to the population accretion experienced in an area and a
careful examination of their growth rates can provide insights into the manifestation of
sprawl (Sudhira et al., 2004; Bhatta, 2009). When BUA growth rate exceeds that of
232 Chandra Kant Pawe and Anup Saikia

population, then a tendency of urban sprawl would seem to have set in. If both rates
are at balance, an ideal condition would be at work; and when population accretion
outpaces that of the BUA, a situation of compact development would have accrued
(Bhatta, 2009; Sudhira et al., 2004; Barnes et al., 2001; Bhatta, 2012). The growth rates
for population and BUA during 1976–1989, 1989–2002 and 2002–2015 were calcu-
lated in this analysis.
For a particular period,

Bend −Bstart
Pb = x 100%
Bstart
Pend −Pstart
Pp = x 100%
Pstart

where, Pb and Pp are the percentage change in built-up and percentage change in pop-
ulation for a particular period respectively. Bend and Bstart are the built-up areas; Pend
and Pstart are the population, at the end and start of that period respectively.

Density of developed land

Based on density of developed land, the amount of built-up land per capita and the
population per unit of built-up land are two important indicators of urban sprawl
(Barnes et al., 2001). Both these techniques emphasize the intensity of land use. An
area experiencing a comparatively higher amount of built-up land per capita represents
a sprawling condition, whereas a low proportion of built-up land per person character-
izes a non-sprawling pattern. Likewise, lower population densities per unit of built-up
land implies less intensive use of land, causing greater sprawl, while a compact growth
pattern results in higher population densities per unit of built-up land (Barnes et al.,
2001; Angel et al., 2007). The variation in these two measures, over a period, is indica-
tive of whether the process of development is propelled by a sprawling or infilling
pattern.
For a particular year,

tba
PCB =
tpa
tpa
PPB =
tba

where, PCB and PPB are the per-capita consumption of built-up land and population
per unit of built-up land respectively. tba and tpa are the total built-up land and total
population in the area respectively.

Kernel density estimation of BUA

The kernel density estimation (KDE) method produces regular steady surfaces rep-
resenting hot spot maps of different density estimates using a density estimation tech-
nique. Here, an equivalent layer above all observations is established and using a
mathematical function, the distance between the observation and an attributed point is
computed. Subsequently, for that reference location, the distance value for all the sym-
metrical surfaces observed is summarized (Fotheringham et al., 2000). This procedure
is reiterated for successive observations, thereby allowing a kernel to be placed over
Urban sprawl in Guwahati, India 233

each observation. The summation of these individual kernels at all places, based on the
spatial arrangement of BUA observations, produces an estimated density surface
(Fotheringham et al., 2000; Anderson, 2009). This is expressed as:


1 X n
di
f ðx, yÞ = K
nh2 i = 1 h

where, f (x,y) is the density estimate at a given place or spot (x,y); n refers to the num-
ber of observations, h indicates bandwidth or kernel size, K indicates kernel function,
(Anderson, 2009; Sarp & Duzgun, 2015; Jiang et al., 2016). Finally, d measures the dis-
tance between a specific point or place (x,y) from that of the ith observation
(Fotheringham et al., 2000).

Shannon’s entropy
The Shannon’s entropy method is a standard technique in urban sprawl analysis. The
advantage of this technique is that it enables the seamless integration of GIS and
remotely sensed datasets (Bhatta, 2012; Li & Yeh, 2004; Mosammam et al., 2016;
Punia & Singh, 2012). Shannon’s entropy (Hn) determines whether a geographical var-
iable (xi), within zones, exhibits n clustering or remains spatially diffused (Theil, 1967;
Thomas, 1981). It is mathematically expressed as:

X
n

1
Hn = Pi loge
i=1
Pi


where, Pi is the proportion of the variable occurring in the ith zone Pi = Pxni , and
x
i=1 i

xi is the observed value of the phenomenon in the ith zone. Entropy varies between
0 and log(n). While 0 indicates a very compact distribution of BUAs (higher density), a
value tending towards log(n) implies a lower concentration of BUA. Higher values are
symptomatic of urban sprawl. Values above the threshold (halfway mark of log(n)) are
a marker of sprawl (Bhatta, 2012; Bhatta et al., 2010).
Relative entropy (H0 n) helps in transposing the entropy values between 0 and
1 (Yeh & Li, 2001; Bhatta, 2012) which is expressed as (Thomas, 1981):

H 0n = Hn
loge ðnÞ (The threshold value for H 0n is 0:5, as H 0n = 1)

The quantum of urban sprawl can be measured by determining the variation in the
entropy values of time t1 and t2 (Yeh & Li, 2001). This helps to identify if the land
development process adheres to a centrifugal (sprawling) or clustered and focused
urban development.

ΔH n = H n ðt 2 Þ −H n ðt 1 Þ

Contiguity metrics
The new development processes of urban growth consists of three basic forms: infill,
extensions and leapfrog. Development through infill and extension encourages conti-
guity of the developed land by occupying the open spaces between and adjacent to
234 Chandra Kant Pawe and Anup Saikia

BUAs. Sprawl, however, is characterized with reduced contiguity of developed land

resulting in a discontinuous pattern of urbanization through leapfrog development
(Angel et al., 2007; Barnes et al., 2001). New development, on the other hand, repre-
sents the newly identified built-up pixels for T2, not observed in T1, while infill exhibits
the new built-up blocks emerging in the urbanized open spaces of T1, and extension
excludes infill pixels but accommodates the new development occurring within the T1
urban footprint; any new development occurring elsewhere other than the urban foot-
print of T1 is classified by leapfrog growth (Angel et al., 2007; Bhatta et al., 2010).

Results and discussion

BUA growth pattern

The maps generated from the digital classification of the satellite images, during 1976,
1989, 2002 and 2015 provide a visual representation of the growth and extent of BUA
in the GMA. A graphical representation of the trend of BUA growth projected a contin-
uously and consistently rising pattern, characterized by uneven distribution of the for-
mer within the study area (Figure 3). Such an irregular pattern of land development is
associated with the location of areas from the city center. Centrally located old pockets
like Fancy bazar, Pan bazar, Uzan bazar and Paltan bazar exhibited high concentration
of BUA. These areas are congested with varied economic activities, numerous adminis-
trative and business establishments, and transport and communication centres. On the
contrary, newly developed peri-urban areas like Narangi, Khanapara, Jalukbari, Mirza
and the plains of North Guwahati registered a lower BUA concentration, yielding a dis-
persed pattern. In 1972, the shifting of the capital of Assam from Shillong to Dispur
provided a fillip to the political and commercial importance of Guwahati (Hemani &
Das, 2016). In 1976, during the initial stages of development, the GMA had only one-
seventh of the total zones with limited concentration of built-up areas. By 2015, a five-
fold increase had accrued; about forty-eight zones recorded more than fifty percent
BUA growth. Such spatial and temporal variations in the distribution of BUA reveal a
pattern of unplanned urban growth of the GMA.

Figure 3. Distribution of BUA by zones.

Source: Figure produced by authors based on image processing results.
Urban sprawl in Guwahati, India 235

An analysis of the percentage of increase in BUA in different zones and years indi-
cated highly variable growth rates and a dappled pattern of development. The part of
Japorigog area (zone 42) showed a built-up growth rate of 224.2 per cent (1976–1989)
which slumped to 6.1 per cent (2002–2015), whereas the Ghorajan, Silgrant, Tilingaon
area (zone 70) registered a mere 15.3 per cent growth initially but later jumped to
284 per cent over the same period. Such disparate growth rates are attributable to the
distribution of BUAs in different zones. Generally, it would seem that a zone with the
existence of a higher fraction of BUA would tend to experience low growth rates and
vice-versa. This is perhaps on account of the expansion of BUA being dependent on
the availability of space for development and is in consonance with trends in Kolkata
(Bhatta, 2012).

Population and its effect on growth rate of BUA

In 1951, the GMA had a population of approximately 100 000 persons. Over the next
fifty years, Guwahati recorded a consistent increase in its population and showed mar-
ked decadal variation (Table 2). By 2015, Guwahati’s population was well in excess of
a million (Pawe and Saikia, 2018). The built-up areas experienced an increase of about
382 per cent expanding from 239 ha in 1976 to 1151 ha in 2015. The BUA hitherto
confined to the old congested commercial pockets of the city core began to extend out-
wards towards the city limits and the fringe areas (Figure 4). The growth of population
kept pace with that of the BUA and during 1976–1989 and 1989–2002 the change in
population was higher than the comparative change in BUAs demonstrating a lower
rate of land development vis-a-vis population growth (Table 3). Notably, between 1971
and 2001 the GMA added about 600 000 persons (Census of India, 2011). Such a high
growth rate of population was undoubtedly in consequence to the city becoming
Assam’s capital in 1972, and attracting substantial immigration from rural areas of
Assam, neighbouring states as well as cross-border migration from Bangladesh follow-
ing the latter’s formation in 1972 (Mahadevia et al., 2014). During 2002–2015, the
GMA experienced a threefold increase in the growth of BUA; easily outpacing popula-
tion increase. The variation in population during 2000 and 2016 using Landscan
gridded data (http://web.ornl.gov/sci/landscan/index.shtml), following previous studies
(Bhaduri et al., 2007; Christenson et al., 2014; Sharma et al., 2017) reveals the sharp
increase of high density pixels of above 5000 persons per km2 (Figure 5) in the GMA.
Over the years, the average household size in GMA decreased from 4.7 in 1991 to
4.4 in 2001 (GMDA, 2009) and to 3.9 by 2011 (Census of India, 2011). The increase in
the number of households in GMA is faster than the rate at which population is
increasing; a trend similar to that occurring over much of India since 1991 (Nayak &
Behera, 2014). During the last decade, Guwahati witnessed a surge in affordable and
luxury apartments, high end hotels, government and private educational institutes,

Table 2. Satellite data used in the study.

Satellite Resolution Path/row Observation date

Landsat 2 MSS 60 147/042 December 16, 1976

Landsat 5 TM 30 137/042 March 9, 1989
Landsat 7 ETM 30 137/042 February 17, 2002
Landsat 8 OLI TIRS 30 137/042 March 17, 2015

Source: Table produced by the authors based on satellite datasets used in the study.
236 Chandra Kant Pawe and Anup Saikia

Figure 4. Spatial extent of BUA.

Source: Figure produced by authors based on image processing results.

super-specialty hospitals, small factories, industries, and commercial projects that gob-
bled up the peripheral plains of the city. This demonstrated that a less compact urban
growth was ensuing in Guwahati.

Density metrics gauged by developable land

In the urban sprawl literature, urban land use is one of the most commonly discussed
attributes. The intensity of urban land use provides a better understanding of the
occurrence of urban sprawl in a city (Angel et al., 2007; Barnes et al., 2001). The per
capita built-up consumption and the population per unit of built-up land during each
period under analysis are presented in Table 4. Between 1976 and 2002, the per capita
built-up consumption was at an average of 71.9 m2. Conversely, the population per
hectare of built-up land remained consistently high at about 139 persons. Around this

Table 3. Growth of population and BUAs.

Guwahati Metropolitan Area (GMA) Population growth rate (in %) BUA growth rate (in %)

1976-1989 67.13 58.54

1989-2002 50.44 41.57
2002-2015 17.79 61.25

Source: Table produced by authors based on calculations & image processing results.
Urban sprawl in Guwahati, India 237

Figure 5. Population distribution changes during 2000 (above) and 2016 (below) in the GMDA, derived
from LandScan data.
Source: Figure produced by authors derived from LandScan 2000 and 2016 datasets.

time, the city experienced a record population increase and expansion of its municipal
jurisdiction area. Nevertheless, the per capita consumption of built-up was relatively
low indicating that the population was occupying a relatively small land area. This was
probably due to the unwillingness of the residents to move out from the core area of
the city, as peripheral areas tended to suffer in terms of access to social infrastructure.
In 1974, a substantial area of about 201.85 km2 neighbouring the old city was incorpo-
rated into the city Municipal Corporation—however, the state of poor civic
238 Chandra Kant Pawe and Anup Saikia

Table 4. BUAs per capita.

Guwahati Metropolitan BUA (in m2) Population Per capita BUA Population per
Area (GMA) consumption (m2) ha. of built-up land

1976 23940801 357257 67.01 149

1989 44292598 597078 74.18 134
2002 67043701 898261 74.63 133
2015 115218000 1058080 108.89 91

Source: Table produced by authors based on calculations & image processing results.

infrastructure and facilities in terms of water supply and sanitation services restricted
any appreciable urban development (Hemani & Das, 2016). Thus, as demonstrated by
the population per hectare built-up land, an intensive use of land prevailed during
1976–2002. In 2015, the consumption of built-up by per person surged to 108.9 m2.
This was a sharp increase within a brief span of time. The formation of Kamrup metro-
politan district from the erstwhile undivided Kamrup district in 2003 brought about sig-
nificant development within the district, and the GMA in particular. Improved public
roads, better transport and communication facilities, availability of basic educational
and health facilities and affordable housing opportunities towards the city suburbs
attracted urbanities away from the core areas (Figure 6). This led to a process of urban
extensification (Lin & Fuller, 2013; Koomen et al., 2018) occurring in the GMA. Con-
sidering that few people were residing on a large expanse of land, urban sprawl had set
in (Angel et al., 2007; Sudhira et al., 2004) and the population per hectare of built-up
land in Guwahati was a mere 91 persons.

140 160
POPULATION PER UNIT OF BUILT-UP LAND (in persons)

120 140

120
100
BUILT-UP AREAS (in km2.)

108.89
100
80
74.68 80
60 74.18
67.01 60

40
40
1058080
898261
597078
357257

20 20

0 0
1976 1989 2002 2015
POPULATION (in persons) BUILT-UP AREAS
PER CAPITA BUILT-UP CONSUMPTION (in sq. mtrs.) POPULATION PER UNIT OF BUILT-UP LAND

Figure 6. Population, BUA and density by developable land.

Source: Figure produced by authors based on image processing results.
Urban sprawl in Guwahati, India 239

Spatial density pattern of BUA

The KDE analysis method was used to understand the spatial distribution of built-up
hotspots for each year under consideration. The density and per annum amplification
in built-up areas helps in identifying the sprawling character of low density built-up
areas (Bhatta et al., 2010). Based on density levels, three categories of low, moderate
and high density were identified. A very compact or clustered nature of built-up areas
represented the high built-up density, a comparatively lesser compact built-up pattern
infilled with limited open space reflected the moderate built-up density, while the low
built-up density was characterized with patches of sparsely distributed built-up areas.
The non built-up class represented areas with no existence of built-up pixels and was
predominantly occupied by other land cover categories. In 1976, the high built-up den-
sity was mainly confined to the old administrative and commercial centre of the GMA,
such as Pan bazar, Fancy bazar, Uzan bazar and parts of Bamunimaidan. By 2015,
about 25 per cent of the GMA had been converted to high density built-up areas occu-
pying the southern plains, the hill slopes of Japorigog, Kharghuli and part of South
Kalapahar area, and along the National Highway 21. The high built-up density areas
proliferated fourfold over a period of four decades. Such a rapid rate of increase in
impervious areas occurred at the expense of urban greenery and open spaces. From
2010–2015, Guwahati experienced forest loss at a rate of 160 ha per year and its dense
forest cover was reduced to only 1438 ha (Yadav & Barua, 2016). In 2016, its munici-
pal area had a deficit of 0.70 km2 of open spaces required for its population at the
event of any natural disaster (ASDMA, 2016). The non built-up areas reduced by
49 per cent during 1978–2015. The low density built-up areas, on the other hand,

Figure 7. Spatio-temporal variation in BUA density levels.

Source: Figure produced by authors based on image processing results.
240 Chandra Kant Pawe and Anup Saikia

Table 5. Shannon’s entropy.

Year Shannon’s entropy (Hn) Relative entropy (H´n)

1976 1.722 0.930

1989 1.751 0.945
2002 1.781 0.962
2015 1.814 0.980

Source: Table produced by authors based on image processing results.

registered a rising trend attesting to a sustained increase of built-up areas in a scattered

and unconcatenate manner (Figure 7). The bulk of such low density built-up areas
cropped up in the extensive unfilled open areas of Amingaon, North Guwahati and in
parts of the revenue villages in south-west Guwahati. These were congruent with the
results derived using population and built-up growth rates, and density metrics of
developable land. Urban planning in Guwahati has always overlooked the density fac-
tor, thus, instigating either sprawl or intense densification (Hemani & Das, 2016).

Shannon’s entropy analysis

The Shannon’s entropy (Hn) is a robust method in identifying urban sprawl. It was
computed for the GMA to examine and understand whether the growth of the city in
terms of areal extension of BUA possessed a higher degree of scattering or compact-
ness. The BUA for each zone and each year under analysis was measured. The highest
entropy value [log(n)] was 1.851, with (n) = 71 spatial units (Table 5). The results indi-
cate that the study area had long been sprawled, with the entropy values for each year
being higher than the threshold value of [log(n)/2] 0.925. The relative entropy (H’n)
values were also consistently higher, close to 1.00, rather than the threshold value of
0.50 (Figure 8). The change in entropy, between time t1 and t2, helps understand
whether sprawling is underway (Bhatta, 2012) and indeed this was the case as the

2 0.08
Shannon's entropy maximum value = 1.851
1.8
0.07

1.6
INCREASE IN ENTROPY VALUES

0.06
1.4
ENTROPY VALUES

0.05
1.2

1 0.04

Shannon's entropy threshold value = 0.925

0.8
0.03

0.6
0.02
0.4 0.033
0.029 0.030

0.018 0.01
0.2 0.015 0.017

0 0
1976 1989 2002 2015
INCREASE IN RELATIVE ENTROPY (from preceeding year) INCREASE IN SHANNON'S ENTROPY (from preceeding year)
SHANNON'S ENTROPY RELATIVE ENTROPY

Figure 8. Shannon’s entropy and relative entropy distribution between 1976 and 2015.
Source: Figure produced by authors based on image processing results.
Urban sprawl in Guwahati, India 241

Table 6. Differences in entropies.

Year ΔHn Δ H´n loge(n) loge(n)/2

1976-1989 0.029 0.015 1.851 0.925

1989-2002 0.030 0.017
2002-2015 0.033 0.018

Source: Table produced by authors based on image processing results. Log values relate to the period
1976-2015.

ΔHn and ΔH’n values had risen considerably in the GMA (Table 6). This makes it
important to understand the process of new land development in the study area.

Contiguity metrics of new land development

Contiguity metrics analyses help explain the type and pattern of new land develop-
ments in an area (Sharma, 2014). The new urbanization that developed in the GMA
was categorized into three types of maps, namely, infills, extensions and leapfrog develop-
ment. Statistics revealed that more than 70 per cent of development occurred through
the extension processes. The infill and leapfrog process contributed about 15 per cent
and 10 per cent respectively. From 1989–2015, a comparatively lower leapfrog devel-
opment was observed plausibly since most peri-urban areas had already been affected
by leapfrog development (15 per cent) previously during 1976–1989. Extension and
infill governed most of the land developments in the central, eastern and southern
areas of the city. The northern and south-western part developed through leapfrog and
extension processes and about 9800 ha of new land developed through a combination
of these three processes. In Guwahati, the 1989 Land Policy had a provision for giving
periodic land rights usually for 30 years, to those who had been occupying State gov-
ernment lands for 15 years (locally termed ‘myadi patta’). As such, most of the state
government lands in Guwahati, in central and peripheral areas of the city, were infor-
mally occupied through a process of land grabbing (locally termed ‘dakhal’). Over the
years, the process of buying and selling of usurped land intensified and most govern-
ment lands including forest lands, hills and wetlands came under informal occupation
by land mafia and were thereafter surreptitiously sold to business or corporate groups
(Mahadevia et al., 2014). Although this was brought to the government’s notice, pre-
cious little was done apart from cosmetic eviction drives. Continuous infringement and
uncontrolled urban development in the demarcated environmentally sensitive areas,
such as the wetlands and hill slopes, demonstrated the inefficiency of the present Mas-
ter Plan for Guwahati (Hemani & Das, 2016).

Conclusion
While urban development in western contexts have been intensively examined and
theorized, our knowledge of these dynamics remain very limited in developing coun-
tries. The latter is where much of urban growth currently occurs and is projected to
occur, in the coming decades (Wang, 2019). In such a context, this study examined the
association between population and the growth and expansion of BUA in the context
of urban sprawl in the GMA, India during 1976–2015. BUA accelerated rapidly at an
annual growth rate of 4.1 per cent. The growth rate of BUA in comparison to popula-
tion growth continued to remain consistently high. The central, eastern and southern
areas like Fancy bazar, Pan bazar, Uzan bazar, Paltan bazar, Bamunimaidan, Narangi,
242 Chandra Kant Pawe and Anup Saikia

Dispur, Japorigog, Kahilipara, Beltola, Basistha, and Lokhra experienced faster and
denser built-up development than the south-western and northern parts of the city.
This was because about 85 per cent of built-up development in Guwahati occurred
through infill and extension processes, besides the illegal acquisition of adjacent plots
of land through land grabbing. The relatively slow urban growth in the peripheral areas
was plausibly due to the Brahmaputra river acting as an impediment to continuous
built-up extension in the north and the considerable distance between the city core
and its south-western periphery.
The urban sprawl assessment revealed that the city was experiencing an increas-
ingly sprawling trend. This was evident because the urban core of the city had become
saturated in terms of urban expansion and possessed marginal and small vacant spaces
for further development. As such, additional governmental and private structures and
the built environment started consuming large swathes of peri-urban areas. Consider-
ing the existing urban patterns, it seems likely that that the city’s future land develop-
ment would accrue in the fringe areas. However, such tendencies must be minimized
since sprawl is widely documented to take a toll on the health of residents and increase
environmental and infrastructural capital costs (NCE, 2018). The cost of sprawl for cit-
ies can amount to as much as 7 to 8 per cent of GDP (Litman, 2015; NCE, 2018) as
transport costs for people reaching distant places of work mount. A toll on public
health from increases in environmental pollution and traffic congestion mounts with
sprawl (NCE, 2018). Densification of a city, on the other hand, enhances access to
workplaces, urban facilities and substantially minimizes capital infrastructure expendi-
tures (NCE, 2018). Indeed, minimizing urban sprawl and exploring avenues to increase
densification and contain a city’s outward expansion should be the priority of cities
(NCE, 2018). At the same time, different parts of a city may require differentiated strat-
egies (Mahtta et al., 2019) and a one size fits all approach may not be advisable for dif-
ferent areas of Guwahati.
Land-cover change is a major driver of global environmental change and, therefore,
is central to issues related to sustainable development (Sharma et al., 2017; Lambin
et al. 2003) in urban as well as rural contexts. Urbanization and its ramifications are
ostensibly better managed in developed nations. In the non-Occidental realm, there is
often a lack of technical expertise in planning and managing cities (Henderson, 2002)
and urban problems often mount and are exacerbated over time. Sprawl can be prob-
lematic if left uncontrolled, the substantive benefits of urbanization notwithstanding.
Indeed, urban woes need to be expeditiously addressed, considering that the current
century is the ‘urban century’ (Elmqvist et al., 2019). Unfortunately, secondary cities
have received scant attention in urban policy research (Andreasen et al., 2017;
Bhanjee & Zhang, 2018) in spite of their important role in national and regional eco-
nomic development (Roberts & Hohmann, 2014). Studies on sprawl, albeit lacking in
theory, (DeSalvo & Su, 2019) tend to have implications for conceiving policies for
southern cities (Bhanjee & Zhang, 2018) to mitigate the effects of sprawl. Smart city
initiatives tend to work as a force opposite to sprawl and aim to promote densification
and compactness of cities. Guwahati is on the smart city list of cities in India and future
strategies will need to address minimizing its outward growth. The outward growth
trend of Guwahati, as distinct from upward growth fits into the global trend, as a recent
study of 478 million cities discerned (Mahtta et al., 2019).
Since knowledge of urban development in developing contexts is rather sketchy
and often raises more questions than answers (Wehrmann, 2014), this study sought to
throw some light onto the trajectories of sprawl in Guwahati which could possibly aid
Urban sprawl in Guwahati, India 243

planners in this context. Cities like Guwahati, epitomize urban developmental woes in
developing contexts, and need attention from various stakeholders if the benefits of
urban growth (Chen et al., 2014) are not to be weighed down by the deleterious effects
of urban sprawl.

Acknowledgements

The authors acknowledge the use of LandScan™ gridded population data developed by Oak Ridge
National Laboratory with funding by the Department of Defense, USA and the use of Landsat sat-
ellite data from the USGS website (https://earthexplorer.usgs.gov/).

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