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Tunisia Economic Monitor Rebuilding The Potential of Tunisian Firms Fall 2020
Tunisia Economic Monitor Rebuilding The Potential of Tunisian Firms Fall 2020
Fall 2020
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Acknowledgements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .vii
Executive Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ix
صخلم . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xvii
List of Figures
Figure 1 Growth is Expected to Contract by 9.2 Percent in 2020 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1
Figure 2 Economies that are More Dependent on Tourism have Tended to Experience
a Sharper Downturn… . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
Figure 3 Contributing to Tunisia’s Performance, which is Considerably Below Peers and
Trading Partners . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
Figure 4 The Current Account Deficit and Reserves Improve in 2020… . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
Figure 5 … as Imports Decline Faster than Exports . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4
Figure 6 The Fiscal Deficit and Debt Levels Increased in 2020 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
Figure 7 Tunisia is Experiencing a Larger Increase in the Fiscal Deficit than some of its
Regional Peers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
iii
Figure 8 Most of the Increase in 2020 Budget Financing Needs is Due to the Costs of the Pandemic… . . .5
Figure 9 But Structural Weaknesses, such as a Large and Growing Wage Bill,
Continue to be a Challenge . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6
Figure 10 Declining Inflation Set the Stage for Policy Rate Cuts in 2020… . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
Figure 11 …Supporting Private Sector Credit Growth in the Second Half of the Year. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
Figure 12 Even though GDP Growth is Expected to Rebound in 2021, Output is Forecast to
Remain Below Pre-Pandemic Levels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
Figure 13 Bureaucracy, Bribes and Banking . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
Figure 14 Annual Employment Growth Rate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .16
Figure 15 A Steady Decline in Investment is Tilting Tunisia towards a Consumption Based Economy . . . . 17
Figure 16 Tunisian Firms are Investing and Innovating Less than Before . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
Figure 17 Investment is Highest in the Center-East Regions... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .17
Figure 18 … while R&D has been Most Stable Amongst Large Firms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .17
Figure 19 Exports According to Type of Growth Dynamics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
Figure 20 The Context for Exporting Firms has Deteriorated . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
Figure 21 Reliance on Domestic Markets is Highest in the South East and South West. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
Figure 22 Labor Productivity has Continued to Decline . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
Figure 23 Within Sector Productivity Dispersions have Increased in All Sectors,
with the Exception of Textiles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .20
List of Tables
Table 1 Selected Macroeconomic Indicators, 2017–2022 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
Table 2 Outlook for Selected Macroeconomic Indicators, 2020–2022 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
List of Boxes
Box 1 How is COVID-19 Affecting the Poor? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
Box 2 Government and Central Bank Measures to Support Households and
Firms during the COVID-19 Crisis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9
Box 3 Impact of the COVID Crisis on the Tunisian Private Sector . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .13
Box 4 Bright Spots in Tunisia’s Firm Landscape Amid a Generally Gloomier Trend . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
Box 5 Is the Decline in Innovation Amongst Tunisian Firms Universal? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
v
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
T
he Tunisia Economic Monitor (TEM) presents Specialist, IFC). Helpful comments were received from
timely and concise assessments of current Gabriel Sensenbrenner (Program Leader, EMNDR),
economic trends in Tunisia in light of the Paul Moreno-Lopez (Lead Economist, MTI) and
country’s broader development challenges. Each edition Fatma Marrakchi (Consultant, MTI). It was prepared
includes a section on recent economic developments under the direction of Jesko Hentschel (Country
and a discussion of the economic outlook, followed by Director, MNC01), Eric Le Borgne (Practice Manager,
a special focus section drawing on recent World Bank MTI) and Tony Verheijen (Country Manager, MNTCN).
analytics on Tunisia. The focus section in this edition The team is grateful to Muna Salim (Senior Program
discusses the evolution of firm landscape using the Assistant, MTI) and Olfa Limam (Program Assistant,
recently published enterprise survey for Tunisia. The MNCTN) for their administrative support.
report is intended for a wide audience, including policy The findings, interpretations, and conclusions
makers, business leaders, financial market participants, expressed in this Monitor are those of World Bank
and the community of analysts and professionals staff and do not necessarily reflect the views of the
engaged in Tunisia. The Tunisia Economic Monitor is Executive Board of the World Bank or the governments
a product of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) they represent.
unit in the Macroeconomics, Trade & Investment (MTI) For information about the World Bank and its
Global Practice in the World Bank Group. activities in Tunisia, please visit www.worldbank. org/
The report was prepared by Shireen Mahdi en/country/Tunisia (English) or www.albankaldawli.
(Senior Economist, MTI), Ali Ibrahim Almelhem (ET org/ar/country/tunisia (Arabic).
Consultant, MTI) and Natsuko Obayashi (Consultant, For questions and comments on the content
MTI). The team included Filip Jolevski (ET Consultant, of this publication, please contact Shireen Mahdi
DEC), Nazim Tamkoc (Economist, DEC), Safia (smahdi@worldbank.org) or Eric Le Borgne
Hachicha (Senior Financial Sector Specialist, FCI), (eleborgne@worldbank.org).
Mihasonirina Andrianaivo (Senior Financial Sector The cutoff date for this edition of the TEM was
Specialist, FCI), Mouna Hamden (Senior Private Sector December 11, 2020.
vii
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
As 2020 draws to a close, the depth of the pandemic’s days a year earlier), strengthening a much needed
impact on the Tunisian economy is becoming more external buffer at this time of heightened risk.
apparent. Tunisia is expecting a sharper decline in The policy response, in this challenging context,
growth than most of its regional peers, having entered has been broadly adequate. Declining inflation set
this crisis whilst already experiencing slow growth the stage for interest rate cuts in 2020, supporting
and rising debt levels. Output is expected to contract moderate growth in credit to the economy. Fiscal
by 9.2 percent this year. policy has also been accommodating. The authorities
With this, some of the past gains in job creation responded to the pandemic with a package of fiscal
and poverty reduction will be lost as unemployment measures to support households and businesses.
edges up and the share of the population vulnerable These measures, along with revenue losses due to the
to falling into poverty increases. Specifically, poverty is downturn, were behind 82 percent in the fiscal deficit to
estimated to increase from 14 percent of the population 10.5 percent of GDP (up from around 3 percent of GDP
pre-Covid to 21 percent in 2020, with most of the in the original 2020 budget). As expected, the increase
impact being felt by the poorest households, which in financing needs has worsened debt vulnerabilities.
are concentrated in Tunisia’s Center West and South Public debt is forecast to rise from 72 percent of GDP
East regions. As for the most vulnerable individuals, in 2019 to around 89 percent of GDP in 2020.
they are likely to be women, living in large households,
without access to health care and employed without Outlook and Risks
contracts.
A 15 percent reduction in exports by September It is clear that the pandemic’s impact on the economy
2020 (YoY) contributed to the downturn as weak global has been severe and that the costs of mitigating
demand depressed industrial and tourism exports. its effects have worsened Tunisia’s already weak
Despite this, the current account deficit is expected to public finances. The outlook is also challenging and
shrink to 7 percent of GDP in 2020, against 8.8 percent uncertain. After an expected 9.2 percent contraction
of GDP in 2019, as remittances picked up and imports in 2020, growth is temporarily expected to accelerate
dropped faster than exports. With a lower current to 5.8 percent as the pandemic’s effects begin to
account deficit, the external position showed some abate, before returning to a more subdued growth
resilience to the economic shock. At USD 7.8 billion as trajectory at around 2 percent, reflecting pre-existing
of end-October, foreign exchange reserves increased structural weaknesses. Downside risks to this outlook
to the equivalent of 147 days of import (against 103 are significant given the extent of the ongoing second
ix
wave of the pandemic and its impact on Tunisia’s Restarting Growth by Rebuilding the
main trading partners. In line with this, the current Potential of Tunisia’s Firms
account deficit is expected to narrow to 6.3 by 2022
as export industries begin to recover, but at a sluggish The special focus section in this edition of the Tunisia
and uncertain pace. The fiscal outlook points to a tight Economic Monitor draws on the recently published
budgetary setting and limited room for stimulus as the enterprise survey for Tunisia to discuss the latest
impact of the pandemic spills into 2021. The fiscal evidence on firm performance and present priorities
deficit is expected to decline to around 4.5 percent for a growing and more productive private sector.
of GDP by 2022 but risks from a still growing wage For much of the past decade, stunted growth and
bill, subsidies, pensions and underperforming state- a less dynamic private sector have contributed
owned enterprises may compromise recovery efforts to persistently high levels of unemployment. In
if not managed proactively. parallel, a vision of the State as a provider of jobs,
In this difficult context, a coherent plan for in the absence of private opportunities, has led to
restarting the economy and restoring the credibility of a ballooning public sector wage bill and dwindling
the macroeconomic framework is a critical next step fiscal space to invest in the economy. The COVID-19
for Tunisia to successfully navigate its way through pandemic has compounded these existing structural
this crisis. difficulties. In this context, dynamizing firms and their
The first priority is to save lives by controlling job creation potential is more urgent than before if
the pandemic and preparing to make COVID-19 Tunisia is to begin recovering from the COVID-19
vaccines available to the population. The authorities crisis.
handled the first wave of the pandemic well, avoiding The analysis finds that Tunisian firms have lost
a large outbreak through an early and strictly much of the spring in their step. Looking back over
enforced lockdown. A second round of infections is the seven year period between 2013 and 2019, the
now far exceeding the first and a set of new, albeit less data shows a number of areas where the environment
stringent, containment measures are in place. Work is has improved and where Tunisia performs better than
also underway to prepare for the rollout of vaccines regional peers. But more generally, the evidence
as Tunisia participates in the World Bank initiative to shows a weakened private sector landscape. Firms
finance the purchase and distribution of COVID-19 are investing less and are less innovative: the share of
vaccines, tests, and treatments.1 firms investing in fixed assets fell from 44 in 2013 to
Second, restoring the credibility of the 30 percent in 2019, with the decline being registered
macroeconomic framework will lay the foundation for across all sectors. Similarly, the share of Tunisian
a more durable recovery in growth. In particular, this firms introducing a new product or service has halved
requires emphasis on financing the recovery more from 28 percent in 2013 to 14 percent in 2019. Firms
sustainably going forward to manage debt levels. This are also less export oriented than before. The share
means restructuring public finances by reducing the of exporting firms decreased from 38 percent in 2013
size of the wage bill, shifting social assistance from to 32 percent in 2019. This occurred as trade related
subsidies to more targeted transfers and addressing indicators deteriorated: the number of days to clear
fiscal risks from SOEs to free up resources for public exports through customs more than doubled from 3
investment and the recovery. days in 2013 to 7 days in 2019. The situation is worse
Lastly, with limited fiscal space and a fragile for imports, whereby the number of days to clear
external position, structural reforms to boost private imports through customs jumped from 7 in 2013 to
sector performance must form the backbone of the 16 days in 2019. Lastly, firms are less productive: real
recovery effort. The pace of the recovery will be
stunted in the absence of an ambitious program to 1
https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/
restart growth at the firm level. This is the topic of the factsheet/2020/10/15/world-bank-group-vaccine-
special focus section of the report. announcement---key-facts.
Executive Summary xi
xii TUNISIA ECONOMIC MONITOR – REBUILDING THE POTENTIAL OF TUNISIAN FIRMS
RÉSUMÉ EXÉCUTIF
Récentes Evolutions touristique. En dépit de cela, on s’attend à ce que
le déficit du compte courant tombe à 7% du PIB en
Alors que l’année 2020 touche à sa fin, l’ampleur 2020 contre 8,8% du PIB en 2019, grâce à la plus
des répercussions de la pandémie sur l’économie grande contribution des envois de fonds et parce que
tunisienne se fait de plus en plus ressentir. La Tunisie les importations ont chuté plus rapidement que les
doit faire face à une baisse de croissance plus exportations.
marquée que celle des autres pays homologues La baisse du déficit du compte courant a permis
de la région, la crise se rajoute à une situation de à la position extérieure de faire preuve de plus de
croissance lente et d’endettement en hausse. A la résilience aux chocs. Au 31 octobre, les réserves de
production qui devrait se contracter de 9,2% en 2020. change de la Tunisie se sont élevées à 7,8 milliards de
S’ajoute à cela la perte des gains réalisés en dollars, c’est-à-dire à près de 147 jours d’importation
matière de création d’emploi et de réduction de la (contre 103 jours une année auparavant), contribuant
pauvreté, de par la plus forte exacerbation du chômage ainsi au renforcement des réserves extérieures, très
et de la paupérisation des segments vulnérables de la utiles en ces temps de crise.
population. Plus particulièrement, il est attendu que Dans ce contexte pour le moins critique, la
la pauvreté passe de 14% de la population — taux réponse politique a été globalement adéquate. Le
enregistré avant l’avènement de la pandémie — à 21% déclin de l’inflation a créé les conditions favorables
de la population en 2020, avec de plus importantes à une réduction des taux d’intérêt et au soutien à
répercussions dans les régions du Centre-Ouest la croissance (modérée) du crédit à l’économie. La
et du Sud-Est du pays. Parmi les segments les plus politique budgétaire a également été conciliante.
vulnérables, on compte essentiellement les femmes Les autorités ont réagi à la pandémie en proposant
qui vivent en familles nombreuses, dépourvues un paquet de mesures budgétaires en appui aux
d’accès aux soins de santé et souvent employées en entreprises et aux ménages. Ces mesures, ajoutées aux
dehors de toute forme contractuelle. pertes de revenus engendrées par le ralentissement
Le secteur des exportations a considérablement économique, ont été en grande partie responsables
contribué au ralentissement : en septembre 2020, il a de l’augmentation du déficit budgétaire à 10,5% du
enregistré une baisse de 15% en glissement annuel, PIB (il était à près de 3% du PIB dans le budget de
en raison du fléchissement de la demande mondiale 2020). Sans surprise, l’augmentation des besoins de
et de l’affaiblissement des secteurs industriel et financement a exacerbé la vulnérabilité liée à la dette.
xiii
On estime que la dette publique augmenterait à 89% décrétées aussitôt que la pandémie a frappé et à
du PIB en 2020, comparativement à 72% du PIB en leur stricte application. Mais la deuxième vague
2019. dépasse de loin la première et de nouvelles mesures
de confinement sont instaurées, quoique moins
strictes que les premières. Beaucoup d’efforts sont
Perspectives et risques également entrepris pour préparer le déploiement de
vaccins, la Tunisie étant membre de l’initiative de la
Le constat de l’impact de la pandémie sur l’économie Banque Mondiale pour le financement de l’achat et de
tunisienne a été sévère et les coûts d’atténuation ont la distribution de vaccins, de tests et de traitements.2
davantage nui aux finances publiques du pays, déjà C’est également en réhabilitant la crédibilité
particulièrement dégradées. Aussi, les perspectives du cadre macroéconomique qu’on arrive à jeter
s’annoncent difficiles et incertaines. Après une bases nécessaires à une reprise plus durable de
contraction attendue de 9,2% en 2020, la croissance la croissance. Plus particulièrement, il s’agit de
devrait temporairement s’accélérer pour se situer à mettre l’accent sur le financement durable de la
5,8% en 2021 à mesure que les effets de la pandémie relance, de manière qui permet de gérer les niveaux
commencent à s’atténuer, avant de revenir à une d’endettement. Cela exige de restructurer les finances
trajectoire plus modérée de près de 2% d’ici à 2022, publiques en endiguant la masse salariale, en faisant
en raison des défaillances structurelles préexistantes. passer l’aide sociale des subventions aux transferts
Les risques à la baisse qui pèsent sur ces perspectives ciblés et en maîtrisant les risques budgétaires
sont importants, au vu de l’ampleur de la deuxième induits par les entreprises publiques, le tout dans
vague de pandémie qui continue de sévir et de son l’objectif de dégager plus de ressources en faveur de
impact sur les principaux partenaires commerciaux l’investissement public et de la relance.
de la Tunisie. Dans le même ordre d’idées, on s’attend Au vu de l’espace budgétaire limité et de la
à ce que le déficit du compte courant commence position extérieure fragile du pays, le pivot du plan
à s’améliorer avec la reprise des exportations, de relance réside dans l’engagement de réformes
quoiqu’à un rythme lent et incertain. Les perspectives structurelles visant à stimuler les performances
budgétaires misent sur un cadre budgétaire serré et du secteur privé. La relance se trouverait freinée
une marge de relance budgétaire limitée, l’impact en l’absence de programme ambitieux qui ravive
de la pandémie devant s’étendre jusqu’en 2021. Les la croissance des entreprises. Cette question est
risques budgétaires liés à la croissance incessante explicitée dans la section ‘’Focus spécial’’ du présent
de la masse salariale, aux subventions, aux retraites rapport.
et à la faible performance des entreprises publiques
commencent à se faire concrètement sentir et, à
défaut d’être gérés de manière proactive, risquent de Relance de la croissance et
compromettre les efforts de relèvement engagés. reconstruction du potentiel des
Devant cette conjoncture difficile, la entreprises tunisiennes
prochaine mesure importante que la Tunisie se doit
d’entreprendre pour passer avec succès au travers La section ‘’Focus Spécial’’ de la présente édition du
de cette crise consiste à élaborer un programme Moniteur Economique — Tunisie s’approfondit sur les
cohérent de relance de l’économie et de réhabilitation résultats de l’enquête récemment menée auprès d’un
de la crédibilité du cadre macroéconomique. ensemble d’entreprises tunisiennes, pour débattre des
La première priorité consiste, bien sûr, à sauver dernières données disponibles sur la performance
des vies, à travers le contrôle de la pandémie et la des entreprises et déterminer les priorités dont il
mise à disposition, de la population, de vaccins contre faut tenir compte pour relancer la croissance et la
le virus Covid-19. Les autorités ont réussi à bien gérer
la première vague de la pandémie et à endiguer 2
https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/factsheet/2020/10/15/
la contagion, grâce aux mesures de confinement world-bank-group-vaccine-announcement---key-facts
Résumé Exécutif xv
xvi TUNISIA ECONOMIC MONITOR – REBUILDING THE POTENTIAL OF TUNISIAN FIRMS
ملخص
(مقابل 301أيام يف العام السابق) ،مام أدى إىل تعزيز االحتياطيات صخلم
الوقائية الخارجية و هو أمر تعترب تونس يف أمس الحاجة إليه يف
هذا الوقت الذي تتزايد فيه املخاطر. مع اقرتاب سنة 0202من نهايتها ،أصبح عمق تأثري الوباء عىل
و يف هذا السياق الصعب ،تعترب استجابة السياسات العامة لألزمة االقتصاد التونيس أكرث وضو ًحا .حيث تشري التوقعات إىل أن تونس
مالمئة إىل حد كبري .حيث أدى تراجع نسب التضخم إىل متهيد ستسجل انخفاضً ا حادًا يف نسبة النمو مقارنة بأغلب نظراءها عىل
الطريق أمام خفض أسعار الفائدة يف ،0202و هو ما أسهم املستوى اإلقليمي ،مبا أنها دخلت هذه األزمة و هي تعاين أصال من
بدوره يف دعم منو حجم القروض املقدمة لفائدة لالقتصاد .كام بطئ النمو و ارتفاع نسب التداين .كام أنه من املتوقع أن ينكمش
تعترب السياسة املالية املتبعة مالمئة .و ملواجهة آثار الوباء اتخذت اإلنتاج بنسبة 2.9يف املائة خالل هذه السنة .باإلضافة إىل ذلك،
السلطات حزمة من اإلجراءات املالية لدعم العائالت والرشكات. سوف تخرس تونس بعض املكاسب السابقة يف عالقة بخلق مواطن
و مثلت هذه اإلجراءات ،إىل جانب الخسائر املسجلة عىل مستوى الشغل و الحد من الفقر تبعا الرتفاع معدالت البطالة وزيادة نسبة
اإليرادات بسبب االنكامش االقتصادي ،السبب يف جزء كبري من السكان املعرضني للوقوع يف براثن الفقر .و عىل وجه التحديد ،تشري
االرتفاع املسجل يف عجز املالية العمومية الذي بلغ ٪5.01من التقديرات إىل أن معدل الفقر سريتفع من ٪41من السكان يف فرتة
الناتج املحيل االجاميل (ارتفاع من حوايل ٪3من الناتج املحيل ما قبل الجائحة إىل ٪12سنة ،0202و ستكون األرس األكرث فقرا،
االجاميل يف امليزانية األصلية لسنة .)0202و كام هو متوقع ،فقد والتي ترتكز يف مناطق الوسط الغريب و الجنوب الرشقي لتونس،
أدت الزيادة يف االحتياجات التمويلية إىل تفاقم درجة التعرض األكرث ترض ًرا من الجائحة .أما بالنسبة لألفراد األكرث هشاشة ،فمن
ملخاطر الديون .حيث من املتوقع أن يرتفع الدين العام من ٪27 املرجح أن يكونوا من النساء الاليت يعشن يف أرس كبرية و ال يتمتعن
من الناتج املحيل اإلجاميل يف 9102إىل حوايل ٪98من الناتج املحيل بالرعاية الصحية و يعملن دون عقود .كام ساهم انخفاض حجم
اإلجاميل يف سنة .0202 الصادرات بنسبة ٪51إىل حدود سبتمرب ( 0202عىل أساس سنوي)
يف هذا االنكامش حيث أدى ضعف الطلب عىل املستوى العاملي إىل
تراجع الصادرات الصناعية والسياحية .و عىل الرغم من ذلك ،من
اآلفاق املستقبلية و املخاطر املتوقع أن يتقلص عجز الحساب الجاري إىل ٪7من الناتج املحيل
اإلجاميل يف سنة ،0202مقابل ٪8.8من الناتج املحيل اإلجاميل يف
من الواضح أن تأثري الوضع الوبايئ عىل االقتصاد كان شديدً ا و أن
سنة ،9102حيث سجلت التحويالت املالية انتعاشا بينام انخفضت
تكاليف إجراءات التخفيف من هذه اآلثار قد زادت يف تفاقم وضعية
الواردات بشكل أرسع من الصادرات.
املالية العمومية الضعيفة أصال .كام تتسم اآلفاق املستقبلية بوجود
مجموعة من التحديات و بعدم اليقني .و يف ظل التوقعات بحدوث و تبعا النخفاض عجز الحساب الجاري ،فقد أظهر الوضع املايل
انكامش بنسبة 2.9يف املائة يف عام ،0202فإنه من املتوقع أن يرتفع الخارجي بعض املرونة يف مواجهة الصدمة االقتصادية .حيث أنه
نسق النمو مؤق ًتا ليصل إىل 8.5يف املائة مع بداية انحسار آثار الوباء، ببلوغه 8.7مليار دوالر أمرييك حتى نهاية أكتوبر ،فقد ارتفع
قبل العودة إىل مسار منو أكرث انخفاضا عند حوايل ٪2مام يعكس نقاط احتياطي تونس من العملة الصعبة إىل ما يعادل 741يوم توريد
xvii
مؤخ ًرا ملناقشة أحدث األدلة عىل أداء الرشكات وتقديم األولويات الضعف الهيكلية املوجودة من قبل .كام تعترب مخاطر حدوث انحسار
متنام وأكرث إنتاجية .فخالل أغلب فرتات العقد
من أجل قطاع خاص ٍ لهذه التوقعات كبرية بالنظر إىل حجم املوجة الثانية للوباء املتواصلة
املايض ،ساهم كل من توقف النمو و ضعف ديناميكية القطاع حاليا وتأثريها عىل الرشكاء التجاريني الرئيسيني لتونس .و متاشيا مع
الخاص يف تواصل ارتفاع مستويات البطالة .وبالتوازي مع ذلك ،فقد ذلك ،من املتوقع أن يرتاجع عجز الحساب الجاري إىل 2.6بحلول
أدى اعتبار الدولة كمشغل ،يف ظل غياب فرص االستثامر للحساب عام 2202مع بدء تعايف الصناعات التصديرية ولكن بنسق بطيء و
الخاص ،إىل تضخم كتلة أجور القطاع العام وتضاؤل الحيز املايل متقلب .و تشري التوقعات املالية إىل ضيق إطار امليزانية و محدودية
لالستثامر يف االقتصاد .و ساهمت جائحة كوفيد 91-يف تفاقم هذه هامش التحفيز حيث سيمتد تأثري الوباء إىل حدود سنة .1202و تشري
الصعوبات الهيكلية القامئة .و يف هذا السياق ،تعد مسألة إعادة التوقعات إىل تراجع عجز الحساب الجاري إىل 5.4باملائة من الناتج
ديناميكية الرشكات و تفعيل إمكانياتها من حيث خلق فرص العمل املحيل اإلجاميل بحلول عام 2202إال أن املخاطر الناجمة عن تواصل
أكرث إلحا ًحا من ذي قبل إذا أرادت تونس أن تطلق مسار التعايف من ارتفاع حجم كتلة األجور ،و ميزانية الدعم ،و أجور التقاعد ،و ضعف
أزمة كوفيد.91- أداء املؤسسات من شأنها تقويض جهود التعايف إذا مل تتم معالجة
هذه املخاطر بشكل استباقي.
و قد خلص التحليل إىل أن الرشكات التونسية قد فقدت الكثري من
نجاحاتها .حيث أنه بالنظر إىل فرتة السبع سنوات بني 3102و و يف هذا السياق الصعب ،يعد إعداد خطة متامسكة إلعادة تنشيط
،9102تُظهر البيانات عددًا من املجاالت التي أظهرت فيها البيئة االقتصاد واستعادة مصداقية إطار االقتصاد الكيل خطوة تالية
االقتصادية تحسنا و أن أداء تونس كان أفضل من نظراءها عىل حاسمة بالنسبة لتونس من أجل النجاح يف تجاوز هذه األزمة.
املستوى اإلقليمي .لكن بشكل عام ،تشري األدلة إىل ضعف نسيج و تتمثل أوىل األولويات يف إنقاذ األرواح من خالل السيطرة عىل
القطاع الخاص .حيث تراجع حجم استثامر الرشكات ،و أصبحت الوباء واالستعداد لتوفري لقاحات كوفيد 91-لجميع السكان .و كانت
أقل ابتكا ًرا :فقد انخفضت حصة الرشكات املستثمرة يف األصول السلطات قد تعاملت مع املوجة األوىل من الوباء بشكل جيد ،حيث
الثابتة من ٪44يف عام 3102إىل ٪03يف عام ،9102مع مالحظة أن تجنبت تفيش املرض عىل نطاق واسع من خالل اتخاذ قرار الحجر
االنخفاض قد شمل جميع القطاعات .كام انخفضت حصة الرشكات الصحي الصارم بشكل مبكر .إال أن املوجة الثانية من العدوى تعترب
التونسية التي تقدم منت ًجا أو خدمة جديدة إىل النصف حيث أكرث حدة من املوجة األوىل ،ويتم حاليا تطبيق مجموعة من تدابري
تراجعت النسبة من ٪82يف 3102إىل ٪41يف .9102كام أصبحت االحتواء الجديدة ،إال أنها أقل رصامة .كام يتم حاليا العمل عىل
الرشكات أقل توجهاً نحو التصدير من ذي قبل .حيث انخفضت توفري اللقاحات حيث تشارك تونس يف مبادرة البنك الدويل لتمويل
حصة الرشكات املصدرة من ٪83يف عام 3102إىل ٪ 23يف عام رشاء وتوزيع لقاحات الكوفيد 91-إىل جانب التحاليل و األدوية.
.9102وقد تزامن ذلك مع تدهور املؤرشات املتعلقة بالتجارة :فقد
ارتفع عدد األيام الالزمة لتخليص الصادرات من الجامرك بأكرث من ثانياً ،سوف تساهم استعادة مصداقية إطار االقتصاد الكيل يف وضع
الضعف فمر من 3أيام يف 3102إىل 7أيام يف .9102أما بالنسبة األسس النتعاش مستويات النمو بشكل أكرث استدامة .و يتطلب ذلك
إىل الواردات فإن الوضع يعترب أسوأ ،حيث قفز عدد األيام الالزمة عىل وجه الخصوص ،الرتكيز عىل متويل االنتعاش بشكل أكرث استدامة
لتخليص الواردات من الجامرك من 7أيام يف 3102إىل 61يو ًما يف للميض قد ًما نحو إدارة مستويات الدين .وهذا يعني إعادة هيكلة
.9102أخريًا ،أصبحت الرشكات أقل إنتاجية :فقد كان معدل منو املالية العمومية من خالل تخفيض حجم كتلة األجور ،وتحويل
اإلنتاجية السنوي الحقيقي سلبيا يف عام 3102حيث بلغ 5.4-يف املساعدات االجتامعية املقدمة يف شكل إعانات إىل تحويالت مبارشة
املائة و تدهور إىل ٪1.5-بحلول عام .9102وعىل الرغم من أن تستهدف مستحقيها ومعالجة املخاطر املالية املتأتية من الرشكات
بعض القطاعات تساهم يف توفري مواطن شغل إضافية ،فإن هذه العمومية و ذلك من أجل توفري املوارد من أجل االستثامر العمومي
األخرية ال يتم توفريها يف املناطق التي تعاين من أعىل مستويات والتعايف االقتصادي.
البطالة. أخ ًريا ،و يف ظل محدودية الحيز املايل و هشاشة الوضع املايل
ويتم اختتام التقرير مبناقشة بعض اإلجراءات الهيكلية األكرث إلحا ًحا الخارجي ،يجب أن تشكل اإلصالحات الهيكلية لتعزيز أداء القطاع
والالزمة للمساعدة يف إعادة القطاع الخاص إىل املسار الصحيح. الخاص العمود الفقري لجهود اإلنعاش .كام أن نسق االنتعاش
وتشمل هذه اإلجراءات دعم قدرة الرشكات الجديدة عىل دخول سيتوقف يف ظل غياب برنامج طموح الستئناف النمو عىل مستوى
السوق وتقديم منتجات أو خدمات جديدة ،ومعالجة املعوقات الرشكات .و هذا هو املوضوع الذي سيتم تناوله يف الجزء املخصص
الهيكلية التي تساهم يف تعقيد وصول الرشكات إىل التمويل ،و من التقرير.
معالجة التدهور الكبري يف أداء املصالح الديوانية و تطوير رؤية
واضحة لسياسات االبتكار من أجل تغذية القطاعات التي بدأت تربز استعادة نسق النمو من خالل إعادة بناء إمكانيات
فيها سامت االبتكار و امليزة النسبية. الرشكات التونسية.
يعتمد الجزء املخصص من هذه النسخة لتقرير املرصد التونيس
لالقتصاد عىل الدراسة االستطالعية للرشكات يف تونس التي نُرشت
1
BOX 1: HOW IS COVID-19 AFFECTING THE POOR?
Recent analysis carried out by the World Bank (Kokas et al; 2020) addresses this question by estimating the pandemic’s impact on
Tunisia’s poor households. It shows that the pandemic is likely to reverse recent gains in poverty reduction. The analysis explored four broad
channels through which the pandemic could affect households: labor income, non-labor income, direct effects on consumption, and the
disruption of services. The findings suggest that, under the baseline scenario of a 9.2 percent contraction in GDP growth in 2020, poverty
is estimated to increase from 14 percent of the population pre-Covid to 21 percent in 2020.a Additionally, inequality (measured using the
Gini coefficient) is estimated to increase from 37 to 39.5.
Households with per capita consumption in the poorest 20 percent of the population, which are concentrated in Tunisia’s Center West and
South East regions, would be hardest hit. As for the most vulnerable individuals, they are likely to be women, living in large households,
without access to health care and employed without contracts. Just over half (53 percent) of individuals who projected to have fallen into
poverty as a result of the pandemic are likely to be employed without a contract.
The analysis also simulated the impact of the authorities’ compensatory measures and found that they would mitigate the impact on
poverty. Specifically, the increase in poverty would slow to 6.9 percent with the mitigation measures as opposed to 7.4 percent without,
underlining the importance of developing well-targeted social protection programs that can quickly be used to reach the poor at times of
crisis.
Source: Kokas, Deeksha; Lopez-Acevedo, Gladys; El Lahga, Abdel Rahman & Mendiratta, Vibhuti. “Impacts of COVID-19 on household welfare in Tunisia”. 2020
(forthcoming).
a
These estimates are based on the national poverty line using the 2015 household survey, which is updated to arrive at the pre-pandemic poverty rate.
of GDP in 2019 coming from the market services.5 first half of the year. Since the end of May 2020,
The pandemic’s dual impact on the supply and social protests disrupted production in energy and
demand for services (both domestic and external) mining sites such as the phosphate mines in Gafsa,
have contributed to a 12 percent decline in services the oil wells in Tataouine, and the Nawara gas field.8
by the third quarter of the year. Tourism is one of Phosphate production has been significantly affected
Tunisia’s main service industries. Key activities for this by these repeated crises. This year, phosphate
sector—transport and hotels and restaurants6—were exports, produced in remote parts of the country,
particularly affected with 30 and 43 percent declines were down by 21 percent by October compared to
respectively over this period. the same period last year. These remote areas have
Manufacturing, a mainstay of the Tunisian some of the highest unemployment rates in Tunisia
economy, has also been deeply impacted as and worsening social conditions in the wake of the
European demand stalled.7 Manufactured output pandemic could further aggravate social tensions. A
contracted by 10 percent in the first nine months change in political power added further uncertainty
of 2020 compared to 2019. The decline was driven as an unexpected change in government took
mainly by textiles and the mechanical and electrical place between July and September, bringing a new
sector, which contracted by 19 percent and 17 government led by Prime Minister Hichem Mechichi
percent respectively. These key industries employ to power.
around a fifth of the working population and had been
growing in recent years. They are also highly sensitive 5
All services (market and non-market) accounted for 61
to global economic shocks. In contrast, agriculture percent of GDP in 2019.
contributed positively to growth, providing a small 6
Transport and hotels and restaurants account for 27
boost to food processing industries, due to favorable percent of market services and 11 percent of GDP.
7
Europe is the destination for more than 75 percent of
harvest conditions.
Tunisia’s exports.
Non COVID-19 related factors also affected 8
The phosphate sector has been subject to repeated sit-
growth this year, such as worker disruption in ins in past years and production in the mining area has
the mining sector and political uncertainty in the been slowed down for a decade.
0 20 40 60 80 100
–5
Percent
–10 0
–15
Tunisia –5
–20
–25
–30 –10
Tourism % of Total Exports 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Developing Countries Europe & Central Asia
Source: World Bank World Development Indicators.
Middle East & North Africa Tunisia
US$ billions
–10
% of GDP
6 6
–20
% of GDP
4 4
2 2 –30 Exports
0 0
–40
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Imports
(est.) (proj.) –50
Current account deficit (in % of GDP) (left axis) General regime Off-shore regime
Gross official reserves (US$ billion) (right axis)
Source: Central Bank of Tunisia.
Source: Central Bank of Tunisia; World Bank staff estimates.
by 15 percent in the first nine months of 2020 compared Bolstered by a lower current account
to the same period in 2019. Leading the fall in exports deficit, the external position remains
were the mechanic and electric industries, key sector adequate, yet fragile, despite the
in the economy, which fell by 20 percent, reflecting economic shock
a reduction in demand from Europe, including in
auto industries. Textiles similarly experienced an 18 Foreign direct investment continued to decline
percent decline in exports so far this year. Tourism, in 2020. Net foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows
which was struggling to recover from the terrorist had been weak prior to the pandemic as the economy
attacks of 2015, was also severely affected, declining struggled to perform and attract investors, leaving
by 60 percent in the first nine months of 2020. This debt and short-term inflows to dominate the financial
comes at a time when the government is struggling to account. FDI took a further hit, declining by 25 percent
revitalize the tourism economy, in the face of domestic in the first 9 months of the year. Debt and short-term
security concerns and regional instability.12 inflows also declined, contracting by 39 over this
Despite this, the current account deficit is period but remained the largest financial inflow.
expected to shrink to 7 percent of GDP in 2020, External reserves remained resilient
against 8.8 percent in 2019, following a large despite the economic shock, placing Tunisia’s
drop in imports and higher remittances. Although reserves at an adequate level. At approximately
exports declined, the reduction in imports was larger. USD 7.8 billion, gross foreign exchange reserves
Overall, imports fell by 18 percent during the first nine increased by 18 percent as of end-October compared
months of 2020 as weak consumer demand, lower oil to a year earlier, equivalent to 147 days of import
prices and a drop in capital goods imports lowered against 103 days a year earlier, owing to a lower CAD
the import bill. Industry is also importing less. For and the Central Bank’s limiting of foreign exchange
example, a large share of imports in the textile and interventions to maintain exchange rate flexibility. The
manufacturing industries are intermediate goods and decline in imports has also contributed to the higher
are ultimately destined for exports, further reducing import cover ratio, which could drop as pent-up
Tunisia’s imports as demand for exports plummets. demand for import recovers.
Moreover, remittances, which stood at 5.3 percent of
GDP in 2019 increased by 12 percent in the 12 months 12
Demand for tourism in Tunisia is led by Europeans and
to September despite a worse economic situation in neighboring countries Algeria and Libya, which have all
France and Italy, the source of 76 percent of Tunisian gradually increased in recent years, despite the terrorist
remittances. attacks in 2016, signaling a growing regional tourism trend.
% GDP
6 50 5
% of GDP
40 4
4 30 3
2 20 2
10 1
0 0 0
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Tunisia MENA Lebanon Morocco Jordan Egypt
(revised
budget) Source: Ministry of Economy, Finance & Investment; World Bank MFMOD database.
Source: Ministry of Economy, Finance & Investment; World Bank staff estimates. deficit from 6.1 percent of GDP in 2017 to 3.5 percent
of GDP by 2019, Tunisia made progress in remedying
its fiscal imbalances prior to the pandemic. The large
Fiscal Policy13 impact of the pandemic, particularly on state revenues,
the costs of the response and continued growth in the
The costs of the pandemic response and wage bill are now pushing the primary14 and overall
structural budget weaknesses reversed deficits to 6.7 and 10.5 percent of GDP, respectively,
recent, albeit uneven, progress in in the revised 2020 budget (Figure 6). This is a larger
consolidating public finances increase compared to most regional peers (Figure 7).
Although structural weaknesses continue
The fiscal deficit is expected to balloon to about to weigh on the budget, most of the increase
10.5 percent of GDP this year, reversing recent in financing needs is due to the costs of the
gains made in rebalancing the budget. With a pandemic. Revenues15 are estimated to decline to
reduction in the overall central government fiscal 28 percent of GDP in 2020, down from 33 percent in
the pre-pandemic budget for the year as the downturn
depresses economic activity and as tax deferral
FIGURE 8 • Most of the Increase in 2020 Budget measures adopted as part of the pandemic response
Financing Needs is Due to the Costs take effect. In parallel, the supplementary 2020
of the Pandemic… budget aims to increase spending to 38 percent of
Sources of the increase in the fiscal deficit between the
GDP, up from 36 percent of GDP initially. Together, the
original and revised 2020 budgets costs of the COVID-19 response at TND 1100 million
(1 percent of GDP), and revenue losses account for
Revenue loss 69
82 percent of the increase in the deficit between the
Covid-19 response 13 original and the revised 2020 budget. Higher debt
service costs also added to the spending envelope
Wage bill 6
(Figure 8). An untimely increase in the wage bill this
Debt service 5
Other
13
This section draws on the approved supplementary
7
budget law for 2020. The ratios are calculated based on
0 20 40 60 80 World Bank GDP estimates for 2020.
Percent 14
The primary balance is equivalent to the overall fiscal
Source: World Bank staff calculations based on the 2020 proposed supplementary balance, less interest payments.
budget. 15
Revenues and grants.
10
Monetary policy balanced economic
stimulus with its core objective of
5
maintaining price stability, supporting
0
Tunisia Morocco Algeria* Lebanon* Egypt Jordan moderate growth in credit to the economy
Source: World Bank staff estimates; IMF staff estimates.
* Data for Algeria and Lebanon is for 2019. Declining inflation set the stage for policy rate
cuts in 2020 to support the economy during
the pandemic. The central bank had maintained a
year, forecast to grow by 17 percent compared to
monetary policy tightening cycle between 2017 and
2019, is adding to the expansion. Taken together,
2019 in response to a depreciating currency and
these factors outweighed savings from lower energy
inflationary pressures over this period, which helped
subsidies stemming primarily from lower international
lower inflation from a peak of 7.7 percent in mid-2018
oil prices.
to 5.8 percent by early 2020. While inflation reached
6.3 percent in the early stage of the pandemic (April–
Higher financing needs in 2020 keep debt
May) due to the initial shock, normalization of supply
levels on an upward trajectory, increasing
chains, lower oil prices and subdued domestic
debt service costs
demand helped decelerate inflation to 5.4 percent by
October. In this context, the Central Bank reduced the
Financing has shifted to domestic debt to meet
policy rate twice, by 100 basis point in March 2020 and
the budget’s swelling needs. As a result of the
by 50 basis point to 6.25 percent at end-September.
projected deficit, gross financing needs16 jumped
Lower interest rates and COVID-19 re-
from 10 percent of GDP in the original 2020 budget
sponse measures helped prop-up demand for
to 18 percent of GDP in the revised budget. The
credit. The central bank also implemented a num-
authorities have increased recourse to domestic
ber of other measures to mitigate the effects of the
debt to help plug this gap, with a large increase in
pandemic, including relaxation of loan-to-deposit ra-
borrowing needs presented in the last quarter of the
tio requirements, extending list of assets eligible as
year.17 Domestic debt stands now at 35 percent of
collateral for refinancing operations and a second-
total debt, compared with 25 percent in 2019.
ary market government bond purchase program to
With this, public debt is estimated to reach
improve liquidity and yield conditions for domestic
89.4 percent of GDP by end 2020, compared to
72.5 percent in 2019.18 The public debt burden had 16
Consisting of the amounts needed to finance the overall
declined in 2019 as the authorities made progress in
fiscal deficit as well as debt coming due (amortization)
consolidating public finances. The fiscal impact of the during the year.
pandemic reverses the decline in debt registered in 17
Domestic borrowing is expected to finance 62 percent of
2019 and raises the debt stock to concerning levels. gross financing needs and external debt the remaining
Currency appreciation in 2020 helped mitigate some in 2020, against 30 percent in 2019.
of the increase.19 The structure of Tunisia’s debt,
18
The Tunisian dinar appreciated against the dollar by
around 6 percent so far in 2020, mitigating some of the
which has a significant share of debt from donors (47
increase in indebtedness. The large increase is domestic
percent of central government debt in 2019), eases borrowing counteracts this effect.
the debt service burden. Nevertheless, debt service 19
The Tunisian Dinar appreciated by 4 percent in the 12
costs have also been gradually increasing and cutting months to September 2020 (YoY).
12 month % change
6
20
Percent
5
4
10
3
2 0
1
0 –10
Jan–15
May–15
Sep–15
Jan–16
May–16
Sep–16
Jan–17
May–17
Sep–17
Jan–18
May–18
Sep–18
Jan–19
May-19
Sep–19
Jan–20
May–20
Sep–20
Jan–16
May–16
Sep–16
Jan–17
May–17
Sep–17
Jan–18
May–18
Sep–18
Jan–19
May–19
Sep–19
Jan–20
May–20
Sep–20
Credit to the government (real)
Inflation Money Market Rate Central Bank Policy Rate Credit to the economy (real)
Source: Central Bank of Tunisia; INE. Source: Central Bank of Tunisia; World Bank staff estimates.
budget financing.20 This contributed to a 14 percent based on the 12 publicly traded banks22 shows
increase in credit to the private sector in real terms in a liquid asset ratio at 4.5 percent with significant
the 12 months to September 2020 (against –1.1 per- disparity between public and private banks.23 In
cent in 2019). This is despite much faster growth in addition, exposure to the government, through
credit to the public sector, which grew by 59 percent securities and direct lending has edged upwards as
in real terms (up from 3.8 percent in 2019) as a con- credit to the government increased (Figure 11). In
sequence of the increase in the budget’s financing this context, close supervisory scrutiny, adherence to
needs, which, if continued, would crowd-out private robust classification standards and effective financial
sector credit. safety nets are particularly important to increase
transparency and maintain confidence in the system.
Non-performing loans and exposure to the Despite efforts to provide relief and
public sector are key risks to a vulnerable assistance during the pandemic, low financial
banking sector inclusion limits the financial sector’s ability to
reach those most impoverished. Limited access
Banking sector vulnerabilities have increased as to finance is also constraining the magnitude of any
non-performing loans (NPLs) and the sector’s countercyclical role played by the financial sector.
exposure to the public sector grow. NPLs, already Low penetration of digital financial services is slowing
high at 13.9 percent of gross loans at end 2019 are
expected to increase further.21 The stock of NPLs is 20
See Box 2 for a summary of other monetary and financial
highly exposed to industrial and tourism sectors, two sector measures.
of the most heavily affected sectors by the ongoing 21
Data on the evolution of NPLs in 2020 has not been
crisis. In addition, support measures such as payment published yet by the authorities. According to S&P
moratoria maybe delaying the onset of NPLs. Given (2020), NPLs are expected to rise from 14 percent of
this, stress testing of the financial system and close gross loans at end 2019 to 15.4 percent in 2020 and 19
percent in 2021.
monitoring loans payments past their dates are critical 22
Private banks (9): Amen Bank, ATB, Attijari Bank, BIAT,
to assess the build-up in vulnerabilities. Liquidity has BT, BTE, UBCI, UIB and WIB) and Public banks (3): BH,
remained constrained. While no mid-year data is BNA, and STB.
communicated by the Central Bank on the liquid asset 23
Source: Tunisie Valeurs;1.4 percent for public banks and
ratio, which stood at 4.7 at end 2019, a proxy estimate 6.5 percent for private banks.
Tunisia’s deployment of rapid and agile measures, the most vulnerable segments (such as women
which are particularly needed in an economic lockdown and smallholder farmers), has also come under
and social distancing context, like social transfers pressure from declining portfolio quality as affected
and financial inclusion. Microfinance, another vector households struggle to meet repayments with the
of financial inclusion, supporting income-generating refinancing difficulties under the current governance
activities of over 400,000 micro-entrepreneurs from and regulatory framework.
% Growth (YoY)
it is likely to be subdued. Global GDP is forecast to 70 2
TND, Billion
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
11
After this short-term rise, growth is expected to return tourism arrivals are expected to pick-up gradually. But
to a more subdued trajectory, expanding by around 2 risks to the external outlook remain high, including a
percent, reflecting pre-existing structural weaknesses sluggish recovery in exports, given the heavy impact
and a gradual global recovery from the pandemic. of the pandemic on firm capacity and a slower than
These estimates are presented with expected recovery amongst Tunisia’s main trading
significant downside risks in a highly uncertain partners. An increase in oil prices, although not
environment. While Tunisia managed the first wave currently foreseen in the near-term, could be a source
of the pandemic relatively well, the depth of the of risk for Tunisia if commodity market conditions
second wave and its duration, both domestically and shift. Consumer demand is also expected to begin
amongst the main trading partners, are significant recovering, boosting the flow of imports and placing
unknowns. This baseline scenario assumes that there additional pressure.
will be no prolonged and widespread lockdown, a
gradual abatement of the pandemic in 2021 and a
slow recovery in Europe. A less forgiving scenario
The fiscal outlook points to a tight
would result in an even weaker growth outlook and a
budgetary setting and limited room
more delayed recovery.
for fiscal stimulus
The pace of the recovery will also depend
The budget for 2021 narrows the fiscal deficit to
on the effectiveness of measures to mitigate the
5.8 percent of GDP, but is subject to significant
pandemic’s impact on firms at a time of limited
downside risks.27 The budget aims to collect 27
buffers and significant scarring of the economic
percent of GDP in revenues and grants, down from
tissue. According to a business pulse survey carried
28 percent of GDP in the revised 2020 budget. The
out in June by the World Bank, 54 percent of firms
authorities seek to shore-up revenues through tax
are concerned about their permanent closure, while
policy and administrative measures, with one of the
this figure reaches 74 percent in the tourism sector,
key measures being the unification of mid-band
indicating the heavy dent that this crisis leaves in
corporate income tax rates under the main rate of 15
the coming years. Despite the government’s efforts
percent. Yet, this target is exposed to risks given the
to support the private sector, only 10 percent of
economic impact of the pandemic on firms (Box 3).
firms reported receiving financial support from the
Moreover, the fiscal impact of the pandemic
state.26 This highlights the difficulty in supporting
will spill into 2021, suggesting continued
the economic recovery in a context of limited fiscal
spending pressures. The proposed 2021 budget
and external buffers and underlines the importance
decreases spending to 33 percent of GDP, mainly
of the health response to manage the effects of the
by rolling back pandemic response spending and
pandemic. It also underlines the need for an economic
limiting wage bill growth. But these plans may be
recovery plan as the basis to begin rebuilding the
underplaying spending pressures. The rising rate of
economy in the medium-term.
new infections and the new set of restrictions mean
that government finances will remain under pressure
The external outlook is expected to to fund health services, support the vulnerable and
improve gradually, with downside shore-up the economy against the pandemic. Fiscal
risk from sluggish export growth risks are also materializing and may compromise
recovery efforts if not managed proactively. Demand
The current account deficit is expected to narrow for public sector recruitment is also very high in the
gradually to 6.3 percent by 2022, but external
pressures could persist in the medium-term if 26
See Box 3 for more detail on the business pulse survey.
imports recover faster than exports as demand 27
Based on the 2021 budget approved by parliament in
picks up. As the effects of the pandemic ease and December 2020. The ratios are calculated based on
trade flows recover, manufactured exports and World Bank estimates for 2021.
A business pulse survey carried out by the INS (in partnership with the IFC and others) in July 2020 showed that the pandemic’s impact
on the private sector has been severe. Although 87 percent of businesses surveyed reopened in June after the national lockdown, just
over a third (37 percent) reported a risk of permanent closure in the next 12 months. The pandemic negatively impacted the sales of the
vast majority of firms: 82 percent of companies experienced a decrease in turnover and 80 percent of businesses saw a drop in demand.
The impact of the pandemic on employment was more muted. Businesses reported a more limited impact on formal employment as most of
the adjustments made were in the form of temporary leave and salary reductions. Consequently, by October 2020, a survey of households
carried out by the INS (in partnership with the World Bank) reported that only 5 percent of individuals surveyed reported job losses.
Most of the firms surveyed (in July 2020) had not received government aid as 16 percent of businesses reported benefiting from
government measures. Even if this number increased subsequently, the business pulse survey indicates that the pandemic’s impact on
business activity remains severe.
With corporate taxes accounting for 13 percent of revenues (in 2019) and a severe shock to business incomes in 2020, which provide the
basis for taxation in 2021, the knock-on effects on the budget are expected to be sizeable.
Source: World Bank Business Pulse Survey Tunisia, December 2020; INS Social Impact of COVID-19 survey, October 2020.
current economic context and SOEs continue to be setting, a rating downgrade in mid-2020 and in the
sources of fiscal risk, which highlights the importance absence of an IMF program.
of progress in controlling public sector pay and Overall, the fiscal outlook underlines the
dealing with underperforming SOEs. importance of restoring the credibility of the
Financing will also be a challenge at this macroeconomic framework to lay the foundations
time of heightened needs. The 2021 shifts budget for a more durable recovery in growth. This
financing heavily to external borrowing to plug the requires emphasis on financing the recovery more
deficit and rollover maturing Eurobonds. Around 70 sustainably going forward, to manage debt levels.
percent of financing needs in 2021 are expected to It also requires steady progress in restructuring
be met through external sources, including through public finances to free up resources for financing
access to international financial markets. This is a the recovery and for public investment. Limiting
challenging plan given the deterioration of the fiscal wage bill growth, shifting social assistance from
F
or much of the past decade, stunted growth refers to firms’ operation in the last financial year (2019).
and a less dynamic private sector have The survey finds that Tunisian firms have lost much of
contributed to persistently high levels of the spring in their step. Looking back over the seven
unemployment. In parallel, a social and political year period between 2013 and 2019, the data shows
expectation of the State as a provider of jobs, in the a number of areas where the context has improved
shortage of private opportunities, has led to a ballooning and where Tunisia performs better than regional peers
public sector wage bill and dwindling fiscal space to (Box 4). But more generally, the evidence shows a
invest in the economy. The COVID-19 pandemic has weakened private sector landscape. Firms are investing
compounded these structural difficulties, resulting less, they are less innovative, less export oriented and
in job losses and increasing pressure on the wage therefore, less productive. And although some sectors
bill. Consequently, unemployment today stands at 16 have been adding jobs to the economy, these jobs are
percent and the wage bill, at around 18 percent of GDP not being created in the areas with the highest levels
in 2020, is consuming over 60 percent of the revenue of unemployment. The report concludes by discussing
envelope. In this context, reigniting the private sector some of the most urgent structural reform measures
and its job creation potential is more urgent than needed to bring the outlook for firms back on track.
before if Tunisia is to hasten the speed and quality of
its recovery from the COVID-19 crisis. 28
The surveys are administered to a representative sample
This section of the report draws on the recently of firms in the non-agricultural, formal, private economy.
published Enterprise Survey for Tunisia to present The topics covered by the survey include infrastructure,
the latest evidence about firm performance and trade, finance, regulations, taxes and business licensing,
the evolution of business environment. Enterprise corruption, crime and informality, access to finance,
surveys are conducted by the World Bank Group and innovation, labor, and perceptions about obstacles to doing
business. The most recent survey for Tunisia collected data
its partners to study the evolution of the business
from 615 firms that were interviewed between September
environment and how it affects the dynamics of the 2019 and July 2020. The data reported in this section of
private sector.28 The most recent survey for Tunisia was the report is not influenced by COVID-19 since it refers to
published in 2020, but the data presented in this report firms’ operations in the previous financial year (2019).
15
BOX 4. BRIGHT SPOTS IN TUNISIA’S FIRM LANDSCAPE AMID A GENERALLY GLOOMIER TREND
Although the context for firms has been challenging, there are FIGURE 13 • Bureaucracy, Bribes and Banking
some bright spots in Tunisia’s firm landscape that could support
a better outlook, provided that key structural bottlenecks are 45 42
progressively unblocked. Comparing the enterprise surveys from 40
35
2013 and 2019 provide such insights.
30
25.4 26.6
Firstly, Tunisian firms spend less time dealing with government 25 21.7
requirements than peers (Figure 13). In addition, government 20 16.5
services are generally improving, with the exception of customs. 15 11.5
Firms reported a significant decrease in the time they spend dealing 10 7.7
5 4.2
with government regulations, from 47 percent of management’s time 0.1
0
in 2013 to only 0.1 percent of management time in 2019. This trend Time spent dealing Bribery incidence % of firms
is confirmed by a drop in the proportion of firms visited or required with government (% of firms experiencing with a loan
to meet with tax officials from 24 to 9 percent over the same period. requirements at least one bribe or credit
Customs services are the exception to this trend since clearance (days) payment request)
procedures have become lengthier for both imports and exports. Tunisia 2019 MENA LMIC
Second, the annual employment growth rate increased from 0.5
percent in 2013 to 4.2 percent in 2019, above the average rate
for the region. Firms engaged in the manufacturing of textiles and
garments contributed ¾ of the net jobs created, growing by about FIGURE 14 • Annual Employment Growth Rate (%)
9 percent. However, the pattern was regionally concentrated. Job 9.00 8.4
growth was most concentrated in the Center-East region whereas 8.00
the rate of job creation in the highest unemployment regions 7.00
6.00
(Center-West, Southeast and Southwest regions) were lower. 5.00 4.23 3.8
4.00
Third, the data shows that Tunisian firms face less corruption than 3.00
regional peers. Bribery incidence (percent of firms experiencing at 2.00 1.1
least one bribe payment request) stood at 11.5 percent, compared 1.00 0.46 –0.4
0
to 17 and 22 percent amongst MENA and lower middle income –1.00
countries respectively. They also enjoy more reliable access to Tunisia Tunisia Center- Northwest Northeast Southeast
infrastructure services and less exposure to crime. 2013 2019 east & &
Center-west Southwest
Fourth, the use of financial services and credit is higher than that of
regional and income level peers. Tunisian firms draw on bank loans
more frequently and finance a larger share of their investment
through banks, giving them a more diversified financing mix.
Lastly, Tunisian firms present a positive context in terms of female labor force participation. Tunisia has a higher share of women in top
management positions compared to their regional peers and a higher share of permanent full-time workers that are female (in manufacturing).
These are positive attributes that contribute to the competitiveness of Tunisian firms but are not sufficient for placing the private sector on
a strong footing. As described in more detail below, although Tunisia outperforms peers in a selected number of dimensions, it has been
losing its lead in recent years. Tunisian firms are less productive and competitive today than in the past, and this calls for a sharper policy
focus on rebuilding the potential of firms.
Firms are investing less and are less as the country navigated its post-revolution path, and
innovative than before slow progress in implementing structural reforms
created a less than attractive context for investment.
Tunisia has experienced a steady decline in invest- Private investment as a share of GDP has fallen from
ment in the last decade, tilting the country towards an average 17.4 percent of GDP in 2000-2010 to 14.9
a consumption based economy. Significant levels percent of GDP in 2011-2019. As a result, GDP growth
of uncertainty and frequent changes of government, has increasingly been consumption driven (Figure 15).
% of firms
85 20
18 25
80 20 18 19
16
14 15 14 13
75
12 10 7
70 10 5 4
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
0
Investing Introduced Investing Investing Offering
Total consumption (% of GDP) (LHS) in fixed new product/ in a new in R&D formal
Gross fixed capital formation (% of GDP) (RHS) assets service process training
FIGURE 17 • Investment is Highest in the Center- FIGURE 18 • … while R&D has been Most Stable
East Regions... Amongst Large Firms
Percent of firms buying fixed assets in 2019 (%) Percent of firms spending on R&D by size (%)
30
South East & South West 25 25
20
North West & Centre West 25 15
10
North East 19 5
0
2013 2019
Centre East 46
Small (5–20) Medium (20–99)
Large (100+)
0 10 20 30 40 50
Source: World Bank 2013 and 2019 Enterprise Surveys. Source: World Bank 2013 and 2019 Enterprise Surveys.
This decline in investment can be observed innovation, large exporters in the manufacturing sector
more closely at the firm level. The percentage of tended to lead innovation in Tunisia. But this picture
firms investing in fixed assets fell from 44 in 2013 to is changing as the share of Tunisian firms introducing
30 percent in 2019, with the decline being registered a new product or service has halved from 28 percent
across all sectors. Although this is slightly above the in 2013 to 14 percent in 2020. The share of firms that
average for the region and income level peers, it introduced a new process innovation has declined even
signals reduced dynamism at the firm level (Figure 16). more sharply from 35 percent in 2013 down to a little
There are stark differences between localities. In the over 4 percent of firms whilst investment in research
Centre-East region, 45 percent of firms are investing in and development halved from 18 to 6.7 percent.
fixed assets. Other regions, notably the Northeast, lag This seems to be a widespread phenomenon. The
far behind with less than a quarter of firms investing in exception is large firms, which have largely maintained
physical capital (Figure 17). their rate of investment in new products and research
Similarly, investment in innovation halved (Figure 18), and some sectoral pockets of innovation
since 2013. While there is no clear dominant sector in (Box 5).
A recent study (Ghali and Nabli, 2020) finds evidence of pockets of FIGURE 19 • Exports According to Type of
innovation that are increasing diversification and the technological Growth Dynamics (Values in Millions
sophistication of Tunisia’s export basket. of USD in 2015 Prices)
Tunisia steadily built its manufacturing and export industries
A: Low technology manufactures
since the 1960s, with both horizontal and vertical industrial 5,000
policies having played an important role. Initially, the economy 4,500
developed industries that offered a low level of technological 4,000
sophistication. 3,500
3,000
Since the early 1990s, the share of more sophisticated products 2,500
in the export basket has been increasing. This has especially 2,000
been the case for products with a medium level of technological 1,500
intensity such as mechanical, electrical and pharmaceutical 1,000
production, amongst others (Figure 19). 500
0
Underlying this was a “lively” rate of experimentation and product
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
diversification, both in terms of products and destination markets,
as firms presented new products to export markets. While some Mature Emerging Stalled Episodic
of these innovations persisted and grew into mature or emerging
products, a large share stalled or were episodic in nature. B: Medium technology manufactures
3,500
This suggests that the decline in innovation, investment and
productivity is not universal. Innovation and product diversification 3,000
are occurring in some important sectors and are making the 2,500
export basket more sophisticated. It also suggests that, rather 2,000
than discovery, the challenge is survival of the new products. This
1,500
trend is detected in Tunisia’s economic complexity ranking, which
increased from 78 in 1998 to 64 in 2018.* 1,000
500
These findings offer important insights for policy makers that are
seeking to build the sophistication and innovation of the Tunisian 0
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
economy. Nurturing green shoots that are already visible and
helping them grow could be an important pathway to future growth
and job creation. In addition to horizontal policies that establish a Mature Emerging Stalled Episodic
sound environment for the private sector, targeted vertical policies
C: High technology manufactures
to attract partnership and foreign direct investment, along with 1,400
policies that provide technological and technical support, are
suggested. 1,200
1,000
800
Source: Ghali, Sofiane and Nabli, Mustapha. Export Diversification and
Sophistication and Industrial Policy in Tunisia. ERF Working Paper 1415. 600
November 2020. 400
* The Economic Complexity Index measures the sophistication of an economy’s
export basket by considering the diversity and the level of specialization in exports. 200
Countries with a more diverse range of export products, and higher concentration 0
in more sophisticated products have a higher complexity index. The Economic
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
Complexity Index was developed by Cesar Hidalgo and Ricardo Hausmann. The
data is available on the website of the Observatory of Economic Complexity:
https://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/. Mature Emerging Stalled Episodic
Investment in the capacity of the workforce 2019, this share had dropped to 19 percent, bringing
has also dropped. Whereas 29 percent of firms Tunisia well below the average for lower middle-
were offering formal training to workers in 2013, by income countries (32.5 percent) on this indicator.
Source: World Bank 2013 and 2019 Enterprise Surveys. Source: World Bank 2013 and 2019 Enterprise Surveys.
Firms are also becoming less export The enterprise survey paints a less
oriented favourable customs environment for trade than
before. The majority of trade related indicators
Exports are playing a much smaller role in the deteriorated between 2013 and 2019. The number
post revolution period. Being small, the Tunisian of days to clear exports through customs more than
economy has traditionally been export oriented, doubled from 3 days in 2013 to 7 days in 2019. The
having built-up manufacturing and tourism industries situation is worse for imports, whereby the number
through industrial policies in past decades. The of days to clear imports through customs jumped
prominence of exports has declined in recent years from 7 in 2013 to 16 days in 2019. Another notable
as the contribution of exports to national output change is that the number of days to obtain an
declined. Consequently, trade’s net contribution importing licence went up from 13 days in 2013 to
to GDP dipped from 49 percent in the 1991–2010 21 days in 2019. Moreover, a higher percentage of
period to –7.1 percent in 2011–19, shifting the firms reports gifts are expected to get an import
economy towards consumption driven growth since license.
the revolution.
Firm level data confirm that Tunisian firms
Firms’ productivity growth has
are less export oriented than before. The share
continued to decline
of exporting firms29 decreased from 38 percent in
2013 to 32 percent in 2019, particularly in the food
Tunisian firms today are less productive than
manufacturing sector (Figure 20). The proportion of
before. Productivity—the efficiency with which the
total sales that are exported directly also fell slightly
firm uses its resources to maximize production—
from 16.3 percent in 2013 to 15.8 percent in 2019.
is critical for the long term growth prospects of the
The same trend is observed for the proportion
economy. Productivity growth supports growth in
of total inputs that are of foreign origin which
earnings, lowers consumer prices and promotes
decreased from 55 percent in 2013 to 43 percent
healthy structural transition. Hence, more productive
in 2019. The areas with the highest level of reliance
firms are at the core of a healthy economy that is able
on domestic markets are in the south eastern and
to provide opportunities to the population.
south western parts of the country, which are also
the regions with lowest share of exporting firms
and longest time needed to clear exports through 29
Percent of firms exporting directly or indirectly at least 10
customs (Figure 21). percent of sales.