Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Transportmodelling 461B LU
Transportmodelling 461B LU
Three types
Activity based model
Tour based model
Trip based model
Steps of Transportation Demand Modeling
It is the process by
which measures of urban
activity are converted into
numbers of trips.
In trip generation, the
planner attempts to
quantify the relationship
between urban activity and
travel.
Three ways for estimating the number of trips
Def: Total numbers of trips that produced from a study area and are attracted
by a study area.
Methodology
1. Regression analysis:
Pi=C+B1x1+B2x2+…………………+Bnxn
Ai= C' +B’1x’1+B’2x’2+…………………+B’nx’n
where, Pi= trip production
Ai = trip attraction
C1, B1, B2………………Bn = co-efficient of trip production
x1, x2………….xn = trip production independent variable.
C’1, B’1, B’2………………B’n = co-efficient of trip attraction
x’1, x’2………….x’n = trip attraction independent variable.
1. Trip Generation(Cont.)
Example of trip Generation Model
It determines where the trips produced in each zone will go, how they will
be divided among all other zones.
2. Trip Distribution (Cont.)
Factors affecting
Trip production and attraction
Travel time
Travel cost
Distance
Methodology
Gravity Model
Growth factor Model
Intervening Opportunity Model
The gravity model assumes that the trips produced at an
orgin and attracted to a destination are proportional to
The total trips productions at the orgin and the total attraction
At the destination. Frictional factors represents the
impedence of persons to make trips of the various
durations or distances. It indicates travel time increase.
2. Trip Distribution (Cont.)
2. Trip Distribution (Cont.)
Zone 1 2 3 total
Trip production 140 330 280 750
Trip attraction 300 270 180 750
2. Trip Distribution (Cont.)
Zone 3
Trip Distribution:
T1-2=140[(270/5²)/(270/52+180/7²)]=104.46≈104.
T1-3=140[(180/7²)/(270/5²+180/7²)]=35.53≈36.
T2-1=330[(300/4²)/(300/4²+180/6²)]=260.52≈261.
T2-3=330[(180/6²)/(300/4²+180/6²)]=69.47≈69.
T3-1=280[(300/6²)/(300/6²+270/6²)]=147.36≈147.
T3-2=280[(270/6²)/(300/6²+270/6²)]=132.63≈133.
2. Trip Distribution (Cont.)
Trial 1
Zone 1 2 3 Production Actual
production
1 0 270/237*104 180/105*36 180 140
=118 =62
2 300/408*261 0 180/105*69= 310 330
=192 118
3 300/408*147 270/237*133=1 0 260 280
=108 52
Attraction 300 270 180
Trial 2
Zone 1 2 3 Production
Trial trip attraction is very close to actual attraction. So further trial is not
required.
Assignment
K=1
3. Mode-choice: Modal Split Model
Multinomial logit: More than two alternatives. i.e bus, car, auto
rickshaw
Cross nested logit: Each alternative may belongs two more than one
nest
Probit Model
Probit model is based on normal distribution only. It considers
cumulative normal distribution. It does
not have a closed form. The choice of probability is an integral
Logistic distribution is used because it approximates normal
Distribution quite well. Gumma distribution can als be justified.
It is analytically convenient to use logit model. Logit model
have faller tails than a normal distribution.
Logit =
log { Normal
y/(1- distribuion
y)}
The logit model trades off the relative utilities
of various modes.
Methodology
Logit Model:
Pit =
Where
Pit = Probability of individual t choosing mode i.
Uit = Utility of mode i (car) for a individual t.
Ujt = Utility of mode j (bus) on individual t.
Model Interpretation
Problem of Logit Model:
Utility function of road user travelling from sub urban to CBD of Network City
using mode auto and bus are given below:
U auto= -0.06-0.07(auto travel time in min.)-0.105(parking cost in dollar) +
0.00001(HH income in dollar)
U bus= -0.07(bus travel time in min)-0.12(bus waiting time in min.)-0.66(bus fee
in dollar)
Variable Auto Bus
Auto travel time in min. 40 -
Parking cost (dollar) 8 -
Bus fare (dollar) - 2
Bus travel time (min) - 60
Bus head way (min) - 20
Annual HH income $ 8000
1. Compute the probability as individual will choose auto for trip?
2. In order to increase rider ship in public transport which option will
consider transport authority?
Reducing bus fare 50 cents
Doubling the no of bus
Doubling parking price
Which option is more effective to increase public transport ridership?
3. Value of time of bus ?
Utility function: measures satisfaction derived from
choices
Disutility function: represents generalized costs of
each choice
Usually expressed as the linear weighted sum of the
independent variables of their transformation
U = a0 + a1X1 + a2X2 + ….. + arXr
p(K) = ____eUk__
eUk
Uauto = -9.70
Utransit = -11.55
Logit Model:
The city decides to spend money to create and improve bike trails so
that biking becomes a viable option, what percent of the trips will be
by bike?
Assume:
• A bike trip is similar to a transit trip
• A bike trip takes 5 minutes more than a transit trip but with no
waiting time
• After the initial purchase of the bike, the trip is ―free‖
Travel characteristics between two zones
t2 Waiting time 8 6 0
c 320 100 0
Uauto = -0.46 – 0.35(20) – 0.08(8) – 0.005(320) = -9.70
Logit Model:
Objectives:
In which route people will travel.
Parameter/Input:
Travel time, travel cost, numbers of trip between zone pairs etc.
Method:
All or nothing assignment model
Capacity restraint assignment.
All-or-nothing Assignment
This is the simplest technique and is based on the premise that the
route followed by traffic is one having the least travel resistance.
The resistance itself can be measured in term of travel time,
distance, cost, safety, reliability, convenience.
OD 1 2 3 4
1 0 100 200 300
2 200 0 200 400
3 100 300 0 100
4 200 400 200 0
Solution:
IDF ---I = 80* T 0.2/(t +12) 0.5 where I = cm/hr, t = min T in year
Estimate peak rate of runoff a 25 year.
Solution:
C e = Sum of C I A I / (A I + A2 +A3)= (2 * 0.1 +1.2 *0.2
+1+0.35)/(2+1.2+1) = 0.1880952
t = 0.01947 (sqrt L 3/OH) 0.77 = 0.01947 (sqrt (2000 3/20) 0.77 =39.91min
IDF --- i = 80 T 0.2 / (39.91 +12) 0.5 = 21.13 cm/hr = 211.3 mm/hr
Q = C * i* A/3.6 = 0.18809* 211.3 *4.2 * 10 6 m 3/sec = 12.88 m 3/sec