ZOE COVID Study

Daily COVID Infections Report

25 July 2021

Analysis by ZOE and King's College London

covid.joinzoe.com
Contents
• 1. Incidence estimates
◦ 1.1. Incidence map and headline figures
◦ 1.2. Daily new cases in the UK by vaccination status
◦ 1.3. Daily new cases in the UK and England
◦ 1.4. Daily incidence rates by nation and administrative region
• 2. Prevalence estimates
◦ 2.1. Prevalence map and headline figures
◦ 2.2. Prevalence rates by sociodemographic characteristics
◦ 2.3. Daily active cases by nation and administrative region
◦ 2.4. Daily prevalence rates by nation and administrative region
◦ 2.5. Daily prevalence rates by age group
• 4. Local authorities' watch list
• 5. Raw figures
◦ 5.1. Number of users logging feeling well/unwell
◦ 5.2. Location of positive PCR tests results
• 6. Changelog
 Incidence estimates
(based on 2 weeks up to 21 July 2021)

Please Note:Incidence estimates were updated on 21 July 2021.

ZOE is using updated methods to account for the rapidly changing situation in the UK
and the high proportion of vaccinated people.

If you have any questions about the methodology updates, please get in touch with:
covidteam@joinzoe.com.
Daily new cases of symptomatic COVID
We estimate there have been 62505 daily new cases of symptomatic COVID in the UK on
average over the two weeks up to 21 July 2021. This is based on the number of newly
symptomatic app users per day, and the proportion of these who give positive swab
tests.

Daily new cases of COVID per 100,000 (21 July 2021) [1]

Daily new cases per 100,000 R

East Midlands 69 - 97 1.2 (1.0 - 1.3)
East of England 73 - 94 1.1 (1.0 - 1.2)
England 89 - 114 1.1 (1.0 - 1.3)
London 124 - 149 1.2 (1.1 - 1.4)
North East 125 - 178 1.0 (1.0 - 1.1)
North West 91 - 119 1.1 (1.0 - 1.2)
Northern Ireland 55 - 184 1.2 (1.0 - 1.4)
Scotland 34 - 57 0.8 (0.7 - 0.9)
South East 75 - 90 1.2 (1.1 - 1.4)
South West 72 - 92 1.2 (1.0 - 1.3)
Wales 35 - 65 1.1 (1.0 - 1.3)
West Midlands 80 - 110 1.1 (1.0 - 1.3)
Yorkshire and The Humber 93 - 125 1.1 (1.0 - 1.2)

[1] Please refer to the publication by Varsavsky at al. (2020) for details on how R values are calculated
Daily new cases of COVID in UK by vaccination status
Daily new cases of COVID in UK and England
Daily incidence rates by nation and administrative region
 Prevalence estimates
(up to 24 July 2021)

Please note: Prevalence estimates were updated on 21 July 2021

UK prevalence is calculated using the UK incidence figure combined with a recovery

model. Therefore, as a result of the updated incidence figures, the UK prevalence figures
have also been updated.

If you have any questions about the methodology updates, please get in touch with:
covidteam@joinzoe.com.
Daily active cases of symptomatic COVID
The COVID active cases (prevalence) or Symptomatic COVID estimate is based on the
most recent report for each contributor that logged during the previous 7 days.

Estimated rate of people with Symptomatic COVID

Prevalence rates by sociodemographic characteristics
Prevalence rates by nation and administrative region

Rates (cases per 100,000

Cases Rates (1 in X people)
people)

East Midlands 46449 975 1 in 103

East of England 63012 1027 1 in 97
London 140750 1590 1 in 63
North East 46991 1784 1 in 56
North West 96471 1334 1 in 75
(*) Northern Ireland 23080 1236 1 in 81
Scotland 45659 848 1 in 118
South East 84646 937 1 in 107
South West 52861 955 1 in 105
Wales 20173 649 1 in 154
West Midlands 66701 1140 1 in 88
Yorkshire and The Humber 80824 1488 1 in 67
TOTAL 767618 1166 1 in 86
(*) The number of respondents in Northern Ireland is low to generate a good estimate.

Prevalence rates by socioeconomic status (IMD)

Rates (cases per 100,000

Cases Rates (1 in X people)
people)
LOW (1st - 3rd decile ) 283784 1426 1 in 70
MEDIUM (4th - 6th decile) 229624 1145 1 in 87
HIGH (7th - 10th decile) 254210 982 1 in 102
TOTAL 767618 1166 1 in 86
Prevalence rates by age group

Rates (cases per 100,000

Cases Rates (1 in X people)
people)
Age 0 - 9 60197 748 1 in 134
Age 10 - 19 175614 2336 1 in 43
Age 20 - 29 228141 2617 1 in 38
Age 30 - 39 135543 1534 1 in 65
Age 40 - 49 89959 1059 1 in 94
Age 50 - 59 53484 597 1 in 168
Age 60 - 69 15859 225 1 in 445
Age 70 - 79 6964 127 1 in 787
Age 80 - 89 1856 69 1 in 1455
TOTAL 767618 1166 1 in 86
Daily active cases by nation and administrative region
Last 3 months

Last month
Daily prevalence rates by nation and administrative region
Last 3 months

Last month
Daily prevalence rates by age group
Last 3 months

Last month
Local Authorities’ Watch list for Active Cases of COVID-19
The following are UTLA regions with the highest estimates of prevalence rates averaged
over the past week. Note that the local authorities' watchlist is intended to be an early
indication system of areas where cases might be rising, but local authority-level
prevalence estimates might be volatile due to the limited amount of responders and
positive cases in the area.
Rates & 95% CI
Last Week # of App
(cases per 100,000
Trend Users
people)
region UTLA region
East of England Bedford
● 1642 (1191 - 2260) 2223

Peterborough
● 1677 (1148 - 2445) 1555

Thurrock
▲ 2167 (1421 - 3293) 966

London Camden
▲ 1735 (1359 - 2214) 3628

Hackney
● 2209 (1742 - 2798) 3016

Hammersmith and Fulham

● 1744 (1298 - 2340) 2472

Havering
▲ 1699 (1258 - 2291) 2456

Hounslow
● 1822 (1363 - 2432) 2448

Islington
● 1834 (1452 - 2314) 3765

Lambeth
▲ 2105 (1754 - 2524) 5379

Southwark
● 1879 (1532 - 2303) 4803

Tower Hamlets
● 2090 (1586 - 2750) 2356

Waltham Forest
● 1674 (1258 - 2225) 2760

Wandsworth
● 1681 (1391 - 2031) 6236

North East Redcar and Cleveland

● 1950 (1220 - 3104) 868

Stockton-on-Tees
▲ 3801 (2940 - 4902) 1478

North West Manchester

▲ 1628 (1248 - 2120) 3286

Scotland Dumfries and Galloway

▼ 1667 (1061 - 2611) 1097

Falkirk
▼ 2150 (1402 - 3286) 947

Wales Bridgend
▲ 2158 (1545 - 3005) 1559
 Rates & 95% CI
Last Week # of App
(cases per 100,000
Trend Users
people)
region UTLA region
Yorkshire and The Humber Barnsley
▲ 2532 (1840 - 3476) 1448

Bradford
● 1872 (1493 - 2345) 3929

Kingston upon Hull, City of

▲ 2129 (1391 - 3244) 969

North East Lincolnshire

▼ 2088 (1344 - 3230) 921

Rotherham
● 1750 (1198 - 2549) 1493

▲ implies an increase in prevalence in the past week

● implies that prevalence has been fairly constant in the past week
▼ implies a decrease in prevalence in the past week
 Raw Figures
(up to 24 July 2021)
Number of users logging feeling well/unwell
This section reports raw data by day, with no temporal averaging or rebalancing/
extrapolation to the UK population.
# users who logged # users who logged % users who logged
feeling well feeling unwell feeling unwell

East Midlands 29697 968 3.16 %

East of England 55325 1696 2.97 %
London 58471 2731 4.46 %
North East 13545 508 3.61 %
North West 37536 1212 3.13 %
Northern Ireland 2590 106 3.93 %
Scotland 26540 723 2.65 %
South East 102408 3132 2.97 %
South West 57011 1807 3.07 %
Wales 23344 603 2.52 %
West Midlands 29932 940 3.04 %
Yorkshire and The Humber 30538 1067 3.38 %
TOTAL 466937 15493 3.21 %
Location of positive PCR tests results
Changelog
• [...]
• 2021-05-12: Changed methodology to adjust for vaccination status (see blog post)
• 2021-05-26: Updated infection report format and included contents and changelog
pages
• 2021-06-08: Incidence figures are now smoothed over a 7-day rolling window
• 2021-06-09: Included UK incidence trend by vaccination status
• 2021-06-10: Fixed bug in the local authorities' watch list which prevented authorities
with rates above 1000 per 100k to be displayed.
• 2021-06-17: Changes in the local authorities' watch list: Included confidence
intervals around the prevalence estimate. Reformatted the table. Extra paragraph
explaining that the watchlist is an early indication system.
• 2021-07-16: Removed incidence graph by vaccination status from the report as
there are very few unvaccinated users in the infection survey, the Confidence
Intervals are very wide and the trend for unvaccinated people is no longer
representative.
• 2021-07-21: Released the latest version of incidence. This new estimate adjusts for
the decreasing number of unvaccinated users in our initial cohort by relaxing the
inclusion criteria of newly sick and incorporating LFTs. An age weighting was also
employed to have a reliable representation of the UK population in our estimates
over all age segments. Incidence figures broken down by vaccination status were
also rolled out. We have written a comprehensive blog on this to help explain this
change further, read more here.