Republic of the Philippines

Department of Education
REGION I
SCHOOLS DIVISION OF THE CITY OF BATAC

ACTIVITY SHEET IN MATHEMATICS 6

QUARTER 4, WEEKS 7 & 8

Theoretical and Experimental Probability

Most Essential Learning Competencies (MELCs):

• Makes listings and diagrams of outcomes and tells the number of favorable
outcomes and chances using these listings and diagrams. (M6SP-IVj-22)
• Makes simple predictions of events based on the results of experiments.
(M6SP-IVi-23)
• Solves routine and non-routine problems involving experimental and
theoretical probability. (M6SP-IVj-24)

Prepared by:

WILFREDO E. BONAGUA
Master Teacher I
 Background Information
Theoretical and Experimental Probability

When we use a formula to find the probability of an event, we are finding the
theoretical probability.
Theoretical Probability of an event is the number of ways that an event can
occur divided by the total number of outcomes.
𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑓𝑎𝑣𝑜𝑟𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠
Theoretical Probability (event) =
𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠

Experimental Probability of an event is the ratio of the number of times an

event occurs to the total number of trials or times the activity is performed.
We can also find the probability of an event by doing an experiment. When
we do this, we are finding experimental probability.

𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑓𝑎𝑣𝑜𝑟𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑜𝑐𝑐𝑢𝑟

Experimental Probability (event)= 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑙𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑒𝑥𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑠

We can also use theoretical probability to predict the results of a probability

experiment. In general, as the number of attempts in an experiment increases,
experimental probability gets closer to the theoretical probability. Experimental
probability is used in most real-life situations when the probabilities cannot be
determined theoretically.

Let’s consider these examples.

Example 1. A bag contains 12 red marbles, 8 blue marbles, and 4 yellow marbles.
Find the theoretical and experimental probabilities of getting a blue marble.

Method 1: Theoretical Probability

Solution:
There are 8 blue marbles. Therefore, the number of favorable outcomes is 8.

There are a total of 24 marbles. Therefore, the number of possible outcomes is

24.
 Using the formula, we have
𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑓𝑎𝑣𝑜𝑟𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠
Theoretical Probability (event) =
𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠

8 1
P (blue marble) = or
24 3
1
Therefore, the theoretical probability of getting a blue marble is .
3
Method 2: Experimental Probability
Solution:
1. Take a marble from the bag.
2. Record the color and return the marble to the bag.
3. Repeat the process 10 times.
4. Count the number of times a blue marble was picked. Suppose it is 4
times. Using the formula, we have
𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑓𝑎𝑣𝑜𝑟𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑜𝑐𝑐𝑢𝑟
Experimental Probability (event) = 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑙𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑒𝑥𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑠

4 2
P (blue marble) = or
10 5

Experimental probability is used in most real-life situations when the probabilities

cannot be determined theoretically.

Example 2 There are 6 possible ways for a die (singular of dice) to turn up.

a. What is the probability of rolling a 1? a 2? a 5?

Each number is equally likely to occur, so:

𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑓𝑜𝑣𝑎𝑟𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 1

𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦(1) = =
𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 6
𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑓𝑜𝑣𝑎𝑟𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 1
𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦(2) = =
𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 6
𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑓𝑜𝑣𝑎𝑟𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 1
𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦(5) = =
𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 6

b. How many ways will an even number occur?

There are 3 possible ways (2, 4, and 6) of rolling an even number.
 c. What is the probability that an even number will occur?
We have 3 even numbers (2, 4, 6), so:

𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑓𝑜𝑣𝑎𝑟𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 3 1

𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦(𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟) = = = 𝑜𝑟 50%
𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 6 2

Theoretical probability is what we expect to happen, while experimental

probability is what actually happens when we try it out. As more trials are
conducted, the experimental probability generally gets closer to the theoretical
probability.

Example 3. A medical study tests a new medicine on 4800 participants. It is effective

for 4200 participants. Find the experimental probability that the medicine
is effective.
𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑓𝑎𝑣𝑜𝑟𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑜𝑐𝑐𝑢𝑟
Experimental Probability (event)= 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑙𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑒𝑥𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑠

4200 7
= 4800 = 8 or 87.5 %

The experimental probability that the medicine is effective is 7/8, or 87.5%.

Example 4. A drawer contains 6 black socks and 4 white socks. Two socks are drawn
at random, one after the other, without replacement. Find the probability of
drawing two black socks in a row.
Solution:
The equation we can use to solve this problem is:
P(black, then black) = P(black) x P(black)
Since we have the condition “without replacement”:

First draw:
6 3
P (black) = 𝑜𝑟
10 5
The first sock is not replaced.
 Second draw:
5
P (black) =
9
There are now 5 black socks that can be drawn out of 9 socks.

3 5 1
Answer: Thus, the probability of two black socks in a row is 𝑥 =
5 9 3

Example 5. PhilJet Airlines offers its flight attendants a variety of uniform styles that
they can choose from. The jacket could be in red and blue. The blouse
could be in red and white.
a. How many uniforms are possible?
b. What is the probability of wearing a uniform with a red jacket and blue
blouse?
c. What is the probability of wearing a uniform with a red blouse?

Solution:
Let’s make a tree diagram to show all the possible uniforms.

Now, let’s answer each question using the tree diagram.

a. How many uniforms are possible?

Answer: There are 6 possible?

b. What is the probability of wearing a uniform with a red jacket and a blue
blouse?
Solution:
There are 6 possible uniforms and 1 uniform with a red jacket and blue
blouse. Hence,
𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑓𝑎𝑣𝑜𝑟𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠
Probability (red jacket & blue blouse) =
𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠
1
=
6
 c. What is the probability of wearing a uniform with a red blouse?
Solution:
There are 2 possible ways to wear a uniform with a red blouse and any
of the two jackets. Thus,

𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑓𝑎𝑣𝑜𝑟𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠

Probability (uniform with red blouse) =
𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠

2 1
= or
6 3

Example 6. Carmi and Virgo are playing a baseball board game. The player at bat
tosses a pair of dice and records the sum of the dice.

Sum of Two Dice Play

2 Homerun
3, 4, 5 Single
6, 7, 8 Out
9, 10, 11 Double
12 Triple

a. Find the probability that the sum is 4 (single).

b. Find the probability that the sum is 2 or 12 (homerun or triple).
Solution:
To be able to answer these questions easily, let’s make a table of sum
for all the 36 possible ways that a pair of die can land.

2 3 4 5 6 7

3 4 5 6 7 8

4 5 6 7 8 9

5 6 7 8 9 10
 6 7 8 9 10 11

7 8 9 10 11 12

We can get certain sums in more than one way. For example, there are
4 ways to get the sum of 4.
1 and 3 3 and 1 2 and 2
To find the probability that the sum is:
a. 4 (single).
These are three ways to get the sum of 4.
𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑓𝑜𝑣𝑎𝑟𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 3 1
𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦(𝑠𝑢𝑚 𝑜𝑓 4) = = =
𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 36 12
b. 2 or 12 (homerun or triple).
There is only one way to get the sum of 2.
𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑓𝑜𝑣𝑎𝑟𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 1 1
𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦(𝑠𝑢𝑚 𝑜𝑓 2) = = =
𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 36 36
Also, there is only one way to get the sum of 12.
𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑓𝑜𝑣𝑎𝑟𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 1 1
𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦(𝑠𝑢𝑚 𝑜𝑓 12) = = =
𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 36 36
The probability of getting the sum of 2 or 12 is:
1 1 2 1
Probability (sum of 2 or 12) = + = 𝑜𝑟
36 36 36 18
1
Therefore, the probability that the sum of 2 or 12 is .
18
Name: _______________________________________ Date: ______________
Grade/Section: ________________________________ Score: _____________

Activity 1: Dress Me Up!

Directions: Complete the tree diagram to show the possible combination of outfits of
a young lady with blue and red jeans and green, yellow, pink, and red blouses. Then,
answer the questions that follow:

3. 11.

4. 12.
1.
5. 13.
13
6. 14.
Outfits
7. 15.

8. 16.
2.
9. 17.

10. 18.

19. How many outfits are possible?__________________

20. What is the probability of wearing a blue jeans and a pink blouse?________
Name: _______________________________________ Date: ______________
Grade/Section: ________________________________ Score: _____________

Activity 2: Figure Me Out!

A. Find the probability of each outcome.

________________1. Number 2
________________2. Number 5 or number 6
________________3. A number less than 4
________________4. An odd number
________________5. A number between 1 & 6

B. Each letter of the word “MATHEMATICS” is written in a separate card. The

cards are placed faced down and shuffled. A card is chosen at random. Find
the probability that it will show:

________________1. an M
________________2. a vowel
________________3. an E
________________4. a consonant
________________5. a T
Name: _______________________________________ Date: ______________
Grade/Section: ________________________________ Score: _____________

Activity 3: Find Me!

A. For this spinner, find the probability of spinning:

____________1. an even number

____________2. odd number
____________3. number less than 7
____________4. a number between 2 & 5
____________5. a number between 1 & 8

B. Two coins are tossed at the same time. To find all the possible ways the coins
can land, copy and complete the diagram below. Then, answer the following
questions:

3.

1. 4.

5.

2. 6.

____________7. getting two heads

____________8. getting a head and tail
____________9. getting two tail
Name: _______________________________________ Date: ______________
Grade/Section: ________________________________ Score: _____________

Activity 4: Solve Me!

Direction: Read and solve each problem.

1-2. A spinner is divided into four equal sections numbered 1 through 4. It is spun
100 times. It is stopped at section 1 twenty-five times, section 2 thirty-six times,
and section 3 twenty-two times.

___________1. Find the probability that the spinner will stop at section 4?
___________2. Find the probability that the spinner will stop at section 1 or 4?

3-5. A box contains 6 black ballpens, 3 red ballpens, 5 blue ballpens and 1 green
ballpen. One ballpen is picked at random and predict how many times you can
expect the color of ballpen to be:
___________3. black
___________4. blue
___________5. not black

6-8.These twelve names are written on slips of paper and placed in a box. One
name is written at random. Find probability of each event.

Erlinda Baby Rowena Cheng

Melissa Greta Aiden Rochelle

Rhamdel Angie Anjo Brenda

____________6. Drawing a name that begins with the letter R.

____________7. Drawing a name that begins with the letter C.
____________8. Drawing a name that ends with vowel sounds.
9-15. A pair of dice is tossed once. Find the probability of each event.
____________9. Getting a sum of 7
____________10. Getting a sum of 9
____________11. Getting a sum of 1
____________12. Getting the same number
____________13. Getting the first number less than the second
____________14. Getting the fist number greater than the second
____________15. Getting a product of 36
References

Perez, Marjoseph H. et al. 21st Century Mathletes Textbook 6. Quezon City: Vibal
Group Inc., 2016

Apistar, Elmer M., et al. Soaring 21st Century Mathematics Grade 6. Quezon City:
Phoenix Publishing House, Inc., 2016