Poisson Probability Distribution

Another discrete random variable that has numerous

practical applications is the Poisson distribution which was
developed by the French mathematician Simeon Denis
Poisson (1781-1840). The Poisson Distribution is employed
when occurrences ( usually rare events such as accidents)
are randomly distributed in space and time.
A discrete random variable X follows a Poisson distribution ,
denoted by 𝑋~𝑃𝑜 𝜇 , if it has pmf given below.
𝜇𝑥 𝑒 −𝜇
𝑃 𝑥 = x=0,1,2,3…..
𝑥!

Where:
𝜇 = the average of times an event occurs in a
certain period of time or space

𝑒 =2.71828…

𝜇 = 𝐸 𝑋 = 𝑛𝑝

𝑛 = number of samples

𝑝 =probability of success
 The mean variance, and standard deviation are as follows:
Mean=𝜇 = 𝐸 𝑋 = 𝑛𝑝
Variance=𝜇
Standard Deviation 𝜎 = 𝜎

Example: The average of cell phones sold by a store at Greenhill's Shopping Centre is
three per day. What is the probability that exactly 4 cell phones will be sold tomorrow?
Solution: 𝑋~𝑃𝑜 3 𝜇𝑥 𝑒 −𝜇
𝑃 𝑥 = x=0,1,2,3…..
𝑥!
𝜇=3 𝑥=4

𝜇 𝑥 𝑒 −𝜇
𝑃 𝑥 =
𝑥!

34 𝑒 −3
𝑃 4 = = 0.168032
4!
Example: The average number of traffic accidents on certain intersection in manila
is two per month.

a. Find the probability that zero accidents happen on that certain

intersection in a one month period.
b. Find the probability that at most four accidents occur on that
intersection in a 2- month period.

𝜇 𝑥 𝑒 −𝜇
Solution: 𝑃 𝑥 =
𝑥!
20 𝑒 −2
𝑃 0 = = 0.135335
0!
b.𝜇 = 𝑛𝑝 = 2 2 𝑚𝑜𝑛𝑡ℎ𝑠 = 4 accidents during a 2-month period So, probability of
having at most four accidents is equivalent to the probability of having at least 0
accidents up to four.
𝜇 = 4 , 𝑃(𝑋 ≤ 4)

40 𝑒 −4
𝑃 0 = = 0.018316
0!

41 𝑒 −4
𝑃 1 = = 0.073263
1!

42 𝑒 −4
𝑃 2 = = 0.146525
2!

43 𝑒 −4
𝑃 3 = = 0.195367
3!

44 𝑒 −4
𝑃 4 = = 0.195367
4!
 𝑃 𝑋 ≤4 =𝑃 0 +𝑃 1 +𝑃 2 +𝑃 3 +𝑃 4
= 0.18316 + 0.073263 + 0.146525 + 0.195367
+ 0.195367 = 0.628838

Example: The number of days that classes are suspended due to flood during rainy season
in manila is 5. What is the probability that the classes will be suspended in manila for 6 days
during a rainy season?

Solution: 𝜇=5 𝑥=6

𝜇 𝑥 𝑒 −𝜇
𝑃 𝑥 =
𝑥!
56 𝑒 −5
𝑃 6 = = 0.146223
6!
Example: Suppose that on the average two persons for every 1,000 people smoke a
cigarette. Find the probability that a random sample of 3,000 people would yield fewer
than 5 persons who smoke a cigarette.

Solution:𝜇 = 6 , 𝑃(𝑋 < 5)

60 𝑒 −6 64 𝑒 −6
𝑃 0 = = 0.0024787 𝑃 4 = = 0.1338526
0! 4!

61 𝑒 −6
𝑃 1 = = 0.0148725
1!
𝑃 𝑋 < 5 = 0.2850564
62 𝑒 −6
𝑃 2 = = 0.0446175
2!

63 𝑒 −6
𝑃 3 = = 0.0892351
3!