Download as pdf or txt
Download as pdf or txt
You are on page 1of 15

Equity Research Peru

Market Alert
April 26th, 2021

Peru Earnings
Estimates: 1Q21
Credicorp Capital Research
Results still supported by high
metal prices and economic recovery

The positive trend in results should continue, supported mainly by the Miguel Leiva & Team
mining and construction sectors in a context of high metal prices and a +(511) 416 3333
faster execution of large infrastructure projects. We also expect better miguelleiva@credicorpcapital.com
numbers in consumption-related companies and in banking as the
economy continues to recover, while the utilities sector should remain
Carolina Ratto
relatively flat. All in all, we expect significant increases in EBITDA and net +(562) 2446 1768
income, though explained in part by a low base. cratto@credicorpcapital.com

Mining results should be driven by high metal prices. During 1Q21, there
were no relevant production stoppages; however, the recent rise in
COVID-19 cases has limited the availability of personnel in some
operations. The main driver of revenues should continue to be higher
metal prices, especially for copper and tin, which should support strong
results for Cerro Verde and Minsur.

The construction sector should maintain the strong momentum from


previous quarters despite further lockdown restrictions in 1Q21. We
observed resilient cement deliveries as private and public projects
continue to show great levels of dynamism. This should also be the case
for steel dispatches. As a result, our sample of construction-related
companies is expected to post great results across the board, with Aenza
being the only exception.

Regarding consumption-related companies, in the case of InRetail, good


dynamism should be observed in almost all lines (with real estate being
the exception), and the acquisition of Makro will have a favorable impact.
At Alicorp, profits should be boosted by extraordinary results from the
crushing business, a good performance of consumer goods in Peru and a
low comparative base for the B2B and aquafeed segments.

Utilities’ operating performance should be flat to somewhat down y/y.


In general, we think all companies will perform better than they did the
previous quarter. That said, vs 1Q20, the sector should be impacted by
somewhat weaker demand (though March saw a significant recovery) and
local FX depreciation. In addition, for gencos, PPA re-pricing continues to IMPORTANT NOTICE (US FINRA RULE 2242) This
document is intended for INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS and is
be a headwind. As a result, we see the utilities sector’s EBITDA and net not subject to all of the independence and disclosure
standards applicable to debt research reports prepared for
income declining by 8% y/y and 10% y/y in USD, respectively. retail investors. Credicorp Capital may do or seek to do
business with companies covered in its research reports. As a
result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a
conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this
report. Investors should consider this report as only a single
To summarize, we expect positive surprises for Cerro Verde, Minsur, factor in making their investment decision. Refer to important
disclosures on page 8 to 12. Analyst Certification on Page 8.
Cementos Pacasmayo, Aceros Arequipa, InRetail, Alicorp and IFS. Additional disclosures on page 12.
Peru - 1Q21 Estimates

Revenues EBITDA Net Income EBITDA Mg. Net Mg.


Company Currency Release Date
1Q21E 1Q20 % Chg. 1Q21E 1Q20 % Chg. 1Q21E 1Q20 % Chg. 1Q21E 1Q20 1Q21E 1Q20
Mining (1) USD mn 1,567 829 89.1% 715 99 621.0% 288 -209 nm 45.6% 12.0% 18.4% nm
Buenaventura USD mn 207 115 81.1% 46 -7 nm 28 -75 nm 22.2% nm 13.5% nm April 29th
Cerro Verde USD mn 962 422 128.0% 499 21 2317.8% 207 -61 nm 51.9% 4.9% 21.6% nm April 26th
Volcan USD mn 183 131 39.5% 60 27 119.8% 5 -31 nm 32.8% 20.8% 2.5% nm April 29th
Nexa Resources USD mn 622 442 40.6% 149 -441 nm 38 -522 nm 24.0% nm 6.2% nm April 29th
Minsur USD mn 215 162 33.3% 110 58 89.7% 48 -42 nm 51.2% 36.0% 22.4% nm May 14th
Cement & Const USD mn 1,369 1,135 20.6% 239 186 28.9% 88 18 387.5% 17.5% 16.4% 6.4% 1.6%
C. Pacasmayo PEN mn 456 299 52.3% 114 72 57.6% 40 11 273.9% 25.0% 24.2% 8.8% 3.6% April 28th
Unacem PEN mn 1,051 905 16.1% 301 282 6.6% 89 61 45.4% 28.6% 31.2% 8.5% 6.8% May 14th
Ferreycorp PEN mn 1,507 1,179 27.8% 209 128 63.6% 91 -21 nm 13.9% 10.9% 6.1% nm April 28th
Aceros Arequipa PEN mn 1,105 637 73.4% 194 85 127.8% 114 39 189.9% 17.6% 13.4% 10.3% 6.2% April 29th
Aenza PEN mn 1,025 883 16.1% 80 71 13.5% -4 -28 86.4% 7.8% 8.0% nm nm April 30th
Consumer USD mn 2,112 2,013 4.9% 221 188 17.8% 157 71 121.7% 12.3% 11.0% 7.4% 3.5%
Alicorp PEN mn 2,725 2,448 11.3% 338 211 60.0% 126 8 1414.5% 12.4% 8.6% 4.6% 0.3% April 29th
IFS PEN mn 1,179 1,068 10.4% nm 330 143 130.2% nm nm 28.0% 13.4% May 13th
InRetail PEN mn 4,030 3,406 18.3% 492 434 13.4% 134 92 45.7% 12.2% 12.7% 3.3% 2.7% May 13th
Utilities USD mn 673 725 -7.2% 251 273 -8.3% 121 135 -10.1% 37.3% 37.7% 18.0% 18.6%
Enel Gx PEN mn 403 397 1.5% 237 237 0.1% 134 140 -3.8% 58.9% 59.7% 33.3% 35.1% May 17th
Enel Dx PEN mn 800 800 0.0% 184 188 -2.0% 69 71 -3.4% 23.0% 23.4% 8.6% 8.9% April 30th
Engie Peru USD mn 126 129 -2.1% 72 73 -1.4% 31 31 -0.9% 57.4% 57.0% 24.8% 24.5% April 29th
Luz del Sur PEN mn 851 855 -0.4% 249 263 -5.3% 136 145 -6.4% 29.2% 30.8% 16.0% 17.0% May 17th
Total Sample (1) USD mn 5,721 4,702 21.7% 1,426 746 91.2% 654 15 4173.0% 24.9% 15.9% 11.4% 0.3%
USD converted to PEN at 3.757 (1Q21) and 3.439 (1Q20)
(1) Sum does not include Nexa Resources

2
Mining
Analysts: Miguel Leiva – miguelleiva@credicorpcapital.com & Mauricio
Fernandini – mauriciofernandini@credicopcapital.com

Buenaventura (BUY; T.P.: UR). We expect a moderate q/q decrease in


BVN had operating revenues due to personnel restriction in Tambomayo and Orcopampa caused
challenges related to by the first-quarter surge in COVID-19 cases, the delays in the mine ramp-up
personnel availability, but in Uchucchacua and the production re-scheduling in Tajo Norte / El Brocal.
this was offset by better However, compared to 1Q20, revenues should increase significantly, mainly
prices and income from due to improved metal prices and stable production from other units. We
equity investments. expect the company to present operating costs similar to those of 4Q20,
with a USD 11mn decrease in other expenses related to the impairment in El
Brocal reserves. Finally, net income should be positive, mainly due to
expected income of USD 40.6mn from the participation in Cerro Verde.

Cerro Verde (UR; T.P.: UR) results should be driven by the 50% y/y surge in
copper prices and, to a lesser extent, by the 13% y/y rise in molybdenum
prices. Additionally, according to Freeport McMoRan, the company’s largest
Cerro Verde and Volcan
revenues will be driven by shareholder, concentrator facilities exceeded planned milling rates and
better prices, not volume. averaged 390,100 metric tons of ore per day, resulting in production of
98,432 tons of copper (+7% y/y) and sales of 97,525 tons. Thus, we expect
EBITDA and net income to post significant increases.

Volcan (BUY; T.P.: PEN 1.04) production levels should be similar to the
figures from 4Q20 and higher than the figures from 1Q20, with an increase in
revenues mainly driven by higher zinc, lead and silver prices. Net revenues
could be positive if no major unexpected costs are incurred.

We expect a more moderate increase in Nexa (HOLD; T.P.: USD 9.00)


revenues as the Brazilian operations were not restricted during 1Q20 as they
Nexa production should were in Peru. We are forecasting production levels close to the lower end of
remain stable and benefit the 2021 guidance for the Peruvian operations due to possible staffing
from increased zinc prices. constraints caused by the pandemic and the temporary suspension of
Atacocha operations in Mar-21. However, this moderate reduction in
production should be offset by higher metal prices. Net income should be
positive, in contrast to the loss of USD 522mn in 1Q20 caused by the USD
485mn non-cash impairment loss recognition related to the Cerro Pasco
cash generating unit and the goodwill in the Peruvian mining segment.

Minsur (HOLD; T.P.: PEN 2.00) sales should be mainly driven by the 54% y/y
Minsur sales will be driven increase in tin prices and an expected 30% y/y increase in tin production
by prices and sales according to guidance. This should offset the expected 21% y/y and 7% y/y
volumes according to decreases in gold and ferroalloy production, respectively. Mina Justa revenues
guidance.
should begin to be reflected in 2Q21.

All in all, the mining sector should continue to post good results this year,
supported by sound fundamentals for metal prices and recovering
Copper prices will benefit production. Cerro Verde and Minsur will benefit from copper prices in the
Cerro Verde and Minsur in upcoming months, while Volcan has significant upside due to other assets (as
the upcoming quarters. presented in our latest valuation report for the company). Operating
challenges related to personnel availability could still arise in the upcoming
months as COVID-19 infection rates remain high.

3
Construction
Analysts: Steffania Mosquera – smosquera@credicorpcapital.com & Enrique
Grau – enriquegrau@credicorpcapital.com

Pacasmayo (UR). The company delivered over 300k MT of cement in each


We expect cement and of the last six months as of Feb-21, a record-breaking achievement. Mar-21
steel deliveries to continue should continue this hot trend as Asocem has revealed that cement deliveries
the strong momentum of at a national level stood over 1,007k MT. Assuming Pacasmayo’s market
4Q20 despite further share remains at ~30%, we expect the company to again deliver over 300k
lockdown restrictions. MT of cement in Mar-21. Thus, the top line should reach PEN 456mn (+52%
y/y). This should benefit EBITDA and net income, which we expect to total
PEN 114mn (+58% y/y) and PEN 40mn (+274% y/y), respectively, though
margins could decrease slightly as a result of higher clinker imports.

Unacem (UR). Last Friday, Unacem posted its 1Q21 stand-alone results,
which typically account for ~50% of consolidated revenues. The top line
reached PEN 543mn (+32% y/y) as the company delivered 1.4mn MT (+36%
Unacem is our new top
y/y) of cement in 1Q21. This was supported by the government’s mandate to
pick in the sector as a
result of its better resume all projects and the overall solid progress of Lima metro’s line 2, Lima
fundamentals and airport’s expansion and Chancay’s port, among many other projects. With this
attractive entry point. in mind, we forecast that consolidated revenues will total PEN 1.05bn (+16%
y/y), while EBITDA and net income should reach PEN 301mn (+7% y/y) and
PEN 89mn (+45% y/y), respectively.

Aceros Arequipa (HOLD; T.P.: PEN 0.85). The company should continue to
ride the good momentum of construction-related activities. We have seen
strong demand for steel in a robust and dynamic market, especially for self-
construction and infrastructure works. We expect 1Q21 results to post sound
growth across the board, even on a q/q basis (all-time high figures were
recorded in 4Q20).

Ferreycorp (BUY; T.P.: PEN 2.10). Higher metal prices and uninterrupted
mining operations should support good 1Q21 results as this segment
represents ~50% of consolidated revenues. In addition, we have seen strong
demand for machinery from construction-related activities, especially in the
northern region of the country, where reconstruction works are gaining
steam. We highlight the faster execution of these activities due to new
investment schemes and G2G contracts. Hence, we expect strong results
across the board.

Aenza (HOLD; T.P.: PEN 2.05 (loc.) / USD 2.95 (ADR)). Operations appear to
be going well across all major subsidiaries, especially at GyM’s construction of
Lima airport’s second runway, which has an overall progress of 19% as of last
week. The construction of mining projects such as Quellaveco in Peru and
Quebrada Blanca Fase 2 in Chile also support a favorable expansion of the
top line. Despite this, we expect earnings to remain in negative territory. It is
worth noting that no further noise regarding the company’s judicial process
emerged after the private placement of the convertible bonds.

All in, we reinstate our favorable view on the construction sector as self-
construction works are benefiting from high levels of savings among families
and projects across the country continue to show great progress. G2G
contracts should provide some level of certainty regarding project
developments in the future. We recently upgraded Unacem to be our top
pick for the sector given its better fundamentals and attractive entry point.

4
Retail and Consumer
Analysts: Carolina Ratto – cratto@credicorpcapital.com & Andrés Cereceda –
acereceda@credicorpcapital.com & Carol Roca – croca@credicorpcapital.com

InRetail (UR). The Supermarket division remains the most resilient with
For InRetail, the Food double-digit top line growth, mainly driven by a still good performance in
business remains the most Super, strong momentum in Cash & Carry and the Makro acquisition as this
resilient, driven by strong will be the first quarter in which results include this new banner. However, we
momentum in Cash & expect some margin compression at the EBITDA level as a result of the
Carry and the Makro incorporation of Makro. Synergies due to this acquisition should be reflected
acquisition. We continue in the upcoming quarters. Pharma continued to show strong sales growth, a
to believe that this is a nice
trend that has been seen in the past few quarters. This was explained by a
defensive story.
good performance not only in medicines but also in other categories such as
wellness and nutrition. We expect high single-digit growth for Drugstores
with flat margins. For the MDM segment, revenues should increase by slightly
less that 2% as the market continues to be challenged by the pandemic. The
Real Estate division continues to be impacted by the partial lockdowns, with
drops in revenues near 12% y/y, but we expect to see a recovery compared to
4Q20. All in all, we continue to believe that this is a nice defensive story.

Results from Alicorp (HOLD; T.P.: PEN 8.6) will be pressured by lower
volumes and higher commodity prices; however, the company will benefit
Alicorp should report from a low comparative base at the operating level. In Consumer Goods
strong results, mainly due Peru, there will be no major surprises in results this quarter. We expect
to an extraordinary volumes to post mild growth; however, EBITDA margin expansion will be
quarter from the Crushing mainly explained by a business mix with a higher exposure to home and
business, healthy growth personal care products. Looking at Consumer Goods International (GCI),
from Consumer Goods results from all geographies will be lower than investors’
Peru and a low expectations. Overall, management prioritized the execution of price
comparative base. increases in most countries, which in turn had a negative impact on
volumes. In addition, an unfavorable mix of currencies will continue to
pressure the conversion to PEN, especially from Brazil and Argentina. The
positive note is the low comparative base in Brazil due to a tax related one-
off in 1Q20. On the B2B side, margins continue to recover but at a slow pace.
Results this quarter will be higher than management’s previous expectations.
The recovery seen so far has been mainly explained by a recovery at the
industry level and efficiencies made at the SG&A level. We expect double-
digit growth in EBITDA for this segment. In the Aquafeed business, demand
has shown improvement, which will explain lower volume drops compared to
previous quarters. Still, the EBITDA margin will continue to be highly
pressured. In fact, in the last earnings call, management said that margins in
this business will not recover until 2022. Looking at the Crushing segment,
results will be boosted by the recent boom in commodities. All in, the
company will post ~60% y/y EBITDA growth and an EBITDA margin
expansion of roughly 380 bps, mainly due to an extraordinary quarter from
the Crushing business, healthy growth from Consumer Goods Peru and a low
comparative base for the B2B and Aquafeed segments. Finally, we believe
that results from CGI will surprise investors to the downside, while B2B and
Aquafeed results will surprise to the upside.

5
Banking
Analysts: Sebastián Gallego – sgallego@credicorpcapital.com & Daniel Mora –
dmoraa@credicorpcapital.com

After a challenging 2020 for the Peruvian banking sector, we


IFS should maintain the should start observing better figures in 2021. That said, the pandemic is
recovery trend exhibited not over, and pre-COVID-19 levels of net earnings and profitability will not
since 2H20. be recovered any time soon. We highlight that we made upward adjustments
to our official 1Q21 estimates for IFS given the better figures reported in 2H20
and a relatively more optimistic outlook for 2021 coming from
the management team. Thus, we expect IFS (HOLD; TP: USD 29/share) to
report a net income of PEN 330.1mn, compared to PEN 143.4mn reported in
1Q20. The sharp recovery should be driven by two main factors. The first one
comes from the top line as we expect a 10.4% y/y increase in the operating
income. However, the main driver should be the other operating income line
as IFS reported losses coming from the investment portfolio at Interseguro
and Inteligo one year ago due to the material impact on financial markets at
the beginning of the pandemic. That said, we expect still impacted NII (-1.7%
y/y) and net fee income (-16.1% y/y). Meanwhile, the stronger bottom line
will be driven by lower provision expenses; we estimate a 24.1% y/y decrease
explained by a lower need for provisions after the high recording of them in
2020. In its 4Q20 conference call, the bank signaled that the current stock of
provisions and coverage ratios is sufficient to face the COVID-19 pandemic in
the upcoming quarters. Regarding Interseguro, we believe that the annuities
business should continue the recovery shown in the last part of 2020; recall
that net premiums plunged ~30% y/y in the roughest months of the
pandemic.

Apart from 1Q21 results, we will continue to monitor the evolution of key
events such as the upcoming presidential election and any additional
information coming on the regulatory front. We expect to revise our
valuation model and target price in the upcoming weeks.

6
Utilities
Analysts: Andrew McCarthy – amccarthy@credicorpcapital.com & Ana Paula
Gálvez – agalvezm@credicorpcapital.com

In the utilities sector, firstly with respect to the gencos, we see Enel
Mainly flat operating figures Generación Perú (HOLD; T.P.: PEN 2.22) posting flat y/y EBITDA of PEN 237
(in PEN) for the sector in mn. Lower hydro dispatch (-22% y/y) should lead to a slightly less favorable
1Q21; looking forward, a spot market position, and higher thermal dispatch should lead to increased
positive base effect could fuel purchases (+15% y/y), but local FX depreciation should offset these
help 2Q21 results. effects. Thus, we expect net income to reach PEN 134 mn (-4% y/y). With
respect to Engie Energía Perú (HOLD; T.P.: PEN 7.58), we forecast EBITDA of
USD 72 mn (-1% y/y), impacted by lower sales volumes, a PPA re-pricing
effect and higher energy and capacity purchases but offset by lower fuel
expenses (-62% y/y). Thus, we expect net income of USD 31 mn, in line with
last year’s figure (-1% y/y).

As for the discos, for Enel Distribución Perú (BUY; T.P.: PEN 6.38), we expect
a small 2% y/y contraction in EBITDA to PEN 184 mn as a result of slightly
weaker physical sales in Jan-21 and Feb-21 that was partially offset by some
recovery in demand in Mar-21. We expect lower provisions for bad debts
compared to the previous quarter given the improvements seen recently in
collections. Thus, we project flat y/y net income of PEN 69 mn. Finally,
regarding Luz del Sur (HOLD; T.P.: UR), we expect the company to report
EBITDA of PEN 249 mn (-5% y/y) as a result of a 3% y/y decline in sales
volumes and higher energy losses (11.3% as per level seen in 4Q20). As for
the bottom line, we expect quarterly net income of PEN 135 mn (-6% y/y).

Amongst the Peruvian utilities, we continue to favor Enel Dx Perú.


Assuming a stable legal framework, we like the medium-term earnings
growth outlook thanks to continued capex to lift regulatory asset value ahead
of the next tariff review in 2022. We also believe the recent re-start of
dividend payments (announced in Feb-21) should support the shares. Having
said this, we recognize that some investors may decide to wait for the results
of the elections in June before becoming more constructive on the name in
the short term.

7
Important Disclosures

This research report was prepared by Credicorp Capital Peru S.A and/or Credicorp Capital Colombia Sociedad Comisionista
de Bolsa and/or Credicorp Capital S.A. Corredores de Bolsa, companies authorized to engage in securities activities in Peru,
Colombia and Chile, respectively and indirect subsidiaries of Credicorp Capital Ltd. (jointly referred to as “Credicorp
Capital”). None of the companies jointly referred to as Credicorp Capital are registered as broker-dealers in the United
States and, therefore, they are not subject to U.S. rules regarding the preparation of research reports and the
independence of research analysts. This research report is provided for distribution only to “major U.S. institutional
investors” in reliance on the exemption from registration provided by Rule 15a-6 of the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of
1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”).
Any U.S. recipient of this research report wishing to effect any transaction to buy or sell securities or related financial
instruments based on the information provided in this research report can do so only through Credicorp Capital, LLC a
registered broker-dealer in the United States. Under no circumstances may a U.S. recipient of this research report effect
any transaction to buy or sell securities or related financial instruments directly through Credicorp Capital.
Credicorp Capital, LLC accepts responsibility for the contents of this research report, subject to the terms set out below, to
the extent that it is delivered to a U.S. person other than a major U.S. institutional investor.
Any analyst whose name appears on this research report is not registered or qualified as a research analyst with the
Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (“FINRA”) and is not a registered representative of Credicorp Capital, LLC. and,
therefore, is not subject to applicable restrictions under FINRA Rules on communications with a subject company, public
appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account.

A. Analyst Disclosures
The functional job title of the person(s) responsible for the recommendations contained in this report is Equity Research
Analyst unless otherwise stated on the cover.
Regulation AC - Analyst Certification: Each Equity Research Analyst listed on the front-page of this report is principally
responsible for the preparation and content of all or any identified portion of this research report and hereby certifies that
with respect to each issuer or security or any identified portion of the report with respect to an issuer or security that the
Equity Research Analyst covers in this research report, all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect
their personal views about those issuer(s) or securities. Each Equity Research Analyst also certifies that no part of their
compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) expressed by
that Equity Research Analyst in this research report.
Each Equity Research Analyst certifies that he or she is acting independently and impartially from the referenced
company/shareholders, directors and is not affected by any current or potential conflict of interest that may arise from any
of the companies’ activities.
Analyst Compensation: The research analyst(s) primarily responsible for the preparation of the content of this research
report attest(s) that no part of his or her compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific
recommendations that he or she expressed in the research report.
The equity research analysts responsible for the preparation of this report receive compensation based upon various
factors, including the quality and accuracy of research, client feedback, competitive factors, and overall firm revenues.
Registration of non-US Analysts: Unless otherwise noted, the non-US analysts listed on the front of this report are
employees of one of the companies jointly referred as Credicorp Capital, which are non-US affiliates of Credicorp Capital,
LLC, a SEC registered and FINRA member broker-dealer. Equity Research Analysts employed by the companies jointly
referred as Credicorp Capital, are not registered/ qualified as research analysts under FINRA/NYSE rules, are not registered
representatives of Credicorp Capital, LLC. and may not be subject to NASD Rule 2711 and NYSE Rule 472 restrictions on
communications with covered companies, public appearances, and trading securities held by a research analyst account.
Please refer to www.credicorpcapital.com for further information relating to research and conflict of interest
management.

8
B. Ownership and Material Conflicts of Interest

Other significant Financial Interests


Credicorp Capital, LLC or its affiliates ´beneficially own´ securities issued by the companies referenced in this report
according to the following table:

Other significant Financial Interests


Neither the research analysts primarily responsible for the preparation of the content of tthis research report nor their
household members ´beneficially own´ securities issued by any of the companies referenced herein.

C. Compensation and Investment Banking Activities


Credicorp Capital, LLC or its affiliates have managed or co-managed a public offering of securities, in the past 12 months,
for the following company(ies): Alicorp, Engie Energía Perú, Luz del Sur
Credicorp Capital, LLC or its affiliates currently have or had, within the past 12 months, the following company(ies) as
investment banking client(s): Alicorp, Cementos Pacasmayo, Buenaventura, Aceros Arequipa, Engie Energía Perú,
Ferreycorp, Aenza, InRetail, IFS, Luz del Sur, Volcan
Credicorp Capital, LLC or its affiliates also have received compensation, within the past 12 months, for investment banking
services from the following company(ies): Alicorp, Cementos Pacasmayo, Buenaventura, Aceros Arequipa, Engie Energía
Perú, Ferreycorp ,Aenza, InRetail, IFS, Luz del Sur, Volcan
Credicorp Capital, LLC or its affiliates also expect to receive or intend to seek compensation, in the next 3 months, for
investment banking services from the following company(ies): Alicorp, Cementos Pacasmayo, Buenaventura, Aceros
Arequipa, Engie Energía Perú, Ferreycorp, Aenza, InRetail, IFS, Luz del Sur, Volcan
D. Other Compensations and Non-Investment Banking Activities
Credicorp Capital, LLC or its affiliates currently provides or have provided, within the past 12 months, non-securities-
related services to the following company(ies): Alicorp, Aceros Arequipa, Enel Dx, Enel Gx, Engie, Aenza, Luz del Sur, Cerro
Verde, Unacem
Credicorp Capital, LLC or its affiliates also have received compensation, within the past 12 months, for non-securities
services from the following company(ies): Alicorp, Aceros Arequipa, Enel Dx, Enel Gx, Engie, Aenza, Luz del Sur, Cerro
Verde, Unacem

9
E. Market Making
Credicorp Capital, LLC or its affiliates act as market maker in the following companies: Alicorp, Bolsa de Valores de Lima,
Cementos Pacasmayo, Engie Energía Perú, Ferreycorp.
F. Rating System
Stock ratings are based on the analyst’s expectation of the stock’s total return during the twelve to eighteen months
following assignment of the rating. This view is based on the target price, set as described below, and on the analyst’s
opinion, general market conditions and economic developments.
Buy: Expected returns of 5 percentage points or more in excess over the expected return of the local index, over the next
12-18 months.
Hold: Expected returns of +/- 5% in excess/below the expected return of the local index over the next 12-18 months.
Underperform: Expected to underperform the local index by 5 percentage points or more over the next 12-18 months.
Under Review: Company coverage is under review.
The IPSA, COLCAP and SP/BVL indexes are the selective equity indexes calculated by the Bolsa de Comercio de Santiago,
the Bolsa de Valores de Colombia, and the Bolsa de Valores de Lima, respectively.
In making a recommendation, the analyst compares the target price with the actual share price, and compares the
resulting expected return for the IPSA, the COLCAP, and/or the SP/BVL indexes, as estimated by Credicorp Capital S.A.
Corredores de Bolsa, Credicorp Capital Colombia Sociedad Comisionista de Bolsa, and/or CredicorpCapital Peru S.A, and
then makes a recommendation derived from the difference in upside potential between the shares and the respective
index.
G. Distribution of Rating

Buy Hold Underperform Restricted / UR

Companies covered with this rating 41% 44% 16% 0%


Compensation for investment banking
27% 46% 40% 0%
services in the past 12 months*
*Percentage of investment banking clients in each rating category.

10
H. Price Target
Unless otherwise stated in the text of this report, target prices in this report are based on either a discounted cash flow
valuation or comparison of valuation ratios with companies seen by the analyst as comparable or a combination of the two
methods. The result of this fundamental valuation is adjusted to reflect the analyst’s views on the likely course of investor
sentiment. Whichever valuation method is used there is a significant risk that the target price will not be achieved within
the expected timeframe. Risk factors include unforeseen changes in competitive pressures or in the level of demand for
the company’s products. Such demand variations may result from changes in technology, in the overall level of economic
activity or, in some cases, in fashion. Valuations may also be affected by changes in taxation, in exchange rates and, in
certain industries, in regulations. Investment in overseas markets and instruments such as ADRs can result in increased risk
from factors such as exchange rates, exchange controls, taxation, and political and social conditions. This discussion of
valuation methods and risk factors is not comprehensive – further information is available upon request.

11
II.ADDITIONAL DISCLOSURES
This product is not for retail clients or private individuals.
The information contained in this publication was obtained from various publicly available sources believed to be reliable,
but has not been independently verified by the companies jointly referred as Credicorp Capital, therefore they do not
warrant the completeness or accuracy of such information and does not accept any liability with respect to the accuracy or
completeness of such information, except to the extent required by applicable law.
This publication is a brief summary and does not purport to contain all available information on the subjects covered.
Further information may be available on request. This report may not be reproduced for further publication unless the
source is quoted. This publication is for information purposes only and shall not be construed as an offer or solicitation for
the subscription or purchase or sale of any securities, or as an invitation, inducement or intermediation for the sale,
subscription or purchase of any securities, or for engaging in any other transaction. This publication is not for private
individuals.
Any opinions, projections, forecasts or estimates in this report are those of the author only, who has acted with a high
degree of expertise. They reflect only the current views of the author at the date of this report and are subject to change
without notice. The companies jointly referred to as Credicorp Capital have no obligation to update, modify or amend this
publication or to otherwise notify a reader or recipient of this publication in the event that any matter, opinion, projection,
forecast or estimate contained herein, changes or subsequently becomes inaccurate, or if research on the subject
company is withdrawn. The analysis, opinions, projections, forecasts and estimates expressed in this report were in no way
affected or influenced by the issuer. The author of this publication benefits financially from the overall success of
Credicorp Capital.
The investments referred to in this publication may not be suitable for all recipients. Recipients are urged to base their
investment decisions upon their own appropriate investigations that they deem necessary. Any loss or other consequence
arising from the use of the material contained in this publication shall be the sole and exclusive responsibility of the
investor and Credicorp Capital accepts no liability for any such loss or consequence. In the event of any doubt about any
investment, recipients should contact their own investment, legal and/or tax advisers to seek advice regarding the
appropriateness of investing. Some of the investments mentioned in this publication may not be readily liquid
investments. Consequently it may be difficult to sell or realize such investments. The past is not necessarily a guide to
future performance of an investment. The value of investments and the income derived from them may fall as well as rise
and investors may not get back the amount invested. Some investments discussed in this publication may have a high
level of volatility. High volatility investments may experience sudden and large falls in their value which may cause losses.
International investing includes risks related to political and economic uncertainties of foreign countries, as well as currency
risk.
To the extent permitted by applicable law, no liability whatsoever is accepted for any direct or consequential loss,
damages, costs or prejudices whatsoever arising from the use of this publication or its contents.
Credicorp Capital (and its affiliates) has implemented written procedures designed to identify and manage potential
conflicts of interest that arise in connection with its research business, which are available upon request. The Credicorp
Capital research analysts and other staff involved in issuing and disseminating research reports operate independently of
Credicorp Capital’s Investment Banking business. Information barriers and procedures are in place between the research
analysts and staff involved in securities trading for the account of Credicorp Capital or clients to ensure that price sensitive
information is handled according to applicable laws and regulations.

12
Country and region disclosures
United Kingdom: This document is for persons who are Eligible Counterparties or Professional Clients only and is exempt
from the general restriction in section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 on the communication of
invitations or inducements to engage in investment activity on the grounds that it is being distributed in the United
Kingdom only to persons of a kind described in Articles 19(5) (Investment professionals) and 49(2) (High net worth
companies, unincorporated associations, etc.) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order
2005 (as amended). It is not intended to be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons.
Any investment to which this document relates is available only to such persons and other classes of person should not
rely on this document.
United States: This communication is only intended for, and will only be distributed to, persons residing in any jurisdictions
where such distribution or availability would not be contrary to local law or regulation. This communication must not be
acted upon or relied on by persons in any jurisdiction other than in accordance with local law or regulation and where such
person is an investment professional with the requisite sophistication to understand an investment in such securities of the
type communicated and assume the risks associated therewith.
This communication is confidential and is intended solely for the addressee. It is not to be forwarded to any other person
or copied without the permission of the sender. This communication is provided for information only. It is not a personal
recommendation or an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy the securities mentioned. Investors should obtain independent
professional advice before making an investment.
Notice to U.S. Investors: This material is not for distribution in the United States, except to “major US institutional
investors” as defined in SEC Rule 15a-6 ("Rule 15a-6") and related guidance. Credicorp Capital and its affiliates has entered
into arrangements with Credicorp Capital, LLC which enables this report to be furnished to certain U.S. recipients in
reliance on Rule 15a-6 through Credicorp Capital, LLC, which is registered under the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934,
as amended.
Each U.S. recipient of this report represents and agrees, by virtue of its acceptance thereof, that it is a "major U.S.
institutional investor" (as such term is defined in Rule 15a-6) and that it understands the risks involved in executing
transactions in such securities. Any U.S. recipient of this report that wishes to discuss or receive additional information
regarding any security or issuer mentioned herein, or engages in any transaction to purchase or sell or solicit or offer the
purchase or sale of such securities, should contact a registered representative of the Credicorp Capital, LLC that provided
the report.
Credicorp Capital, LLC is a broker-dealer registered with the SEC, a member of FINRA and SIPC. You can reach Credicorp
Capital, LLC At 121 Alhambra Plaza, suite 1200, Coral Gables, Miami 33134, phone (305) 4480971 Equity trading: 786 999
1633.
You may obtain information about SIPC, including the SIPC brochure, by contacting SIPC directly at 202-371-8300;
website: http://www.sipc.org
Credicorp Capital Securities, LLC, is a wholly owned subsidiary of Credicorp Capital Ltd.
Nothing herein excludes or restricts any duty or liability to a customer that Credicorp Capital, LLC. have under applicable
law. Investment products provided by or through Credicorp Capital, LLC. are not insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance
Corporation and are not deposits or other obligations of any insured depository institution, may lose value and are not
guaranteed by the entity that published the research as disclosed on the front page and are not guaranteed by Credicorp
Capital, LLC.
Investing in non-U.S. Securities may entail certain risks. The securities referred to in this report and non-U.S. issuers may
not be registered under the U.S. Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and the issuer of such securities may not be subject to
U.S. reporting and/or other requirements. Rule 144A securities may be offered or sold only to persons in the U.S. who are
Qualified Institutional Buyers within the meaning of Rule 144A under the Securities Act. The information available about
non-U.S. companies may be limited, and non-U.S. companies are generally not subject to the same uniform auditing and
reporting standards as U.S. companies. Securities of some non-U.S. companies may not be as liquid as securities of
comparable U.S. companies. Securities discussed herein may be rated below investment grade and should therefore only
be considered for inclusion in accounts qualified for speculative investment.

13
Analysts employed by one of the companies jointly referred to as Credicorp Capital, all of which are non-U.S. broker-
dealers, are not required to take the FINRA analyst exam. The information contained in this report is intended solely for
certain "major U.S. institutional investors" and may not be used or relied upon by any other person for any purpose. Such
information is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell any
securities under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or under any other U.S. federal or state securities laws, rules or
regulations. The investment opportunities discussed in this report may be unsuitable for certain investors depending on
their specific investment objectives, risk tolerance and financial position.
In jurisdictions where Credicorp Capital, LLC is not registered or licensed to trade in securities, or other financial products,
transactions may be executed only in accordance with applicable law and legislation, which may vary from jurisdiction to
jurisdiction and which may require that a transaction be made in accordance with applicable exemptions from registration
or licensing requirements.
The information in this publication is based on sources believed to be reliable, but Credicorp Capital, LLC does not make
any representation with respect to its completeness or accuracy. All opinions expressed herein reflect the author's
judgment at the original time of publication, without regard to the date on which you may receive such information and are
subject to change without notice.
Credicorp Capital, LLC or its affiliates may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with, and reach different
conclusions from, the information presented in this report. These publications reflect the different assumptions, views and
analytical methods of the analysts who prepared them. Past performance should not be taken as an indication or
guarantee of future performance, and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is provided in relation to future
performance.
Credicorp Capital, LLC and any company affiliated with it may, with respect to any securities discussed herein: (a) take a
long or short position and buy or sell such securities; (b) act as investment and/or commercial bankers for issuers of such
securities; (c) act as market makers for such securities; (d) serve on the board of any issuer of such securities; and (e) act as
paid consultant or advisor to any issuer. The information contained herein may include forward-looking statements within
the meaning of U.S. federal securities laws that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Factors that could cause a company's
actual results and financial condition to differ from expectations include, without limitation: political uncertainty, changes
in general economic conditions that adversely affect the level of demand for the company's products or services, changes
in foreign exchange markets, changes in international and domestic financial markets and in the competitive environment,
and other factors relating to the foregoing. All forward-looking statements contained in this report are qualified in their
entirety by this cautionary statement.
Other countries: Laws and regulations of other countries may also restrict the distribution of this report. Persons in
possession of this document should inform themselves about possible legal restrictions and observe them accordingly.

14
CONTACT LIST
ANDEAN RESEARCH TEAM SALES & TRADING
Daniel Velandia, CFA Felipe García
Executive Director Research – Chief Economist Head of Sales & Trading
dvelandia@credicorpcapital.com fgarcia@credicorpcapital.com
# (571) 339 4400 Ext 1505 # (571) 339 4400 Ext. 1132

EQUITY RESEARCH EQUITY SALES & TRADING


Carolina Ratto Mallie Andre Suaid
Team Leader Equity Research Head of Equities
Retail asuaid@credicorpcapital.com
cratto@credicorpcapital.com # (562) 2446 1710
# (562) 2446 1768
CHILE PERU COLOMBIA CHILE PERU COLOMBIA
Andrés Cereceda Miguel Leiva Sebastián Gallego, CFA Benjamin Ruiz-Tagle Rodrigo Zavala Juan A. Jiménez
Team Leader Equity Research Chile Team Leader Equity Research Peru Team Leader Equity Research Colombia Equity Director Head of Capital Markets - Peru Head of International Equity Sales
Food&Beverage, Mining Banks
Natural Resources, Transport miguelleiva@credicorpcapital.com sgallego@credicorpcapital.com bruiztagle@credicorpcapital.com rzavala@credicorpcapital.com jjimenez@credicorpcapital.com
acereceda@credicorpcapital.com # (511) 416 3333 # (571) 339 4400 Ext 1594 # (562) 2446 1793 # (511) 313 2918 Ext 36044 # (571) 339 4400 Ext 1701
# (562) 2446 1798
Steffania Mosquera Jose Manuel Baeza Renzo Castillo Santiago Castro
Andrew McCarthy Enrique Grau Associate - Cement & Construction, Head of Equity Sales Equity Sales International Sales & Trading
VP- Utilities Analyst - Infrastructure Non Bank financials jbaeza@credicorpcapital.com renzocastillo@credicorpcapital.com scastro@credicorpcapital.com
amccarthy@credicorpcapital.com enriquegrau@credicorpcapital.com smosquera@credicorpcapital.com # (562) 2450 1637 # (511) 416 3333 Ext 36167 # (571) 339 4400 Ext 1344
# (562) 24461751 # (511) 416 3333 # (571) 339 4400 Ext 1025
Ursula Mitterhofer Maria Fernanda Luna Credicorp Capital, LLC
Diego Lanis Mauricio Fernandini Daniel Mora Senior Associate Sales & Trading Equity Sales
Analyst Analyst- Mining Analyst- Banks umitterhofer@credicorpcapital.com marialunav@credicorpcapital.com
dlanis@credicorpcapital.com mauriciofernandini@credicorpcapital.com dmoraa@credicorpcapital.com # (562) 2450 1613 # (511) 416 3333 Ext 36182 Rafael Solis
# (562) 2450 1600 # (511) 416 3333 # (571) 339 4400 Ext 1609 Institutional Equity Sales
Camilo Muñoz Gortari Alexander Castelo rsolis@credicorpcapital.com
Maria Ignacia Flores Ana Paula Galvez Nicolas Erazo Associate Equity Sales Equity Sales # (786) 999 1619
Analyst Analyst - Utilities Analyst - Utilities cmunoz@credicorpcapital.com acastelo@credicorpcapital.com
miflores@credicorpcapital.com agalvezm@credicorpcapital.com nerazo@credicorpcapital.com # (562) 2446 1732 # (511) 416 3333 Ext 36153
# (562) 2450 1600 # (511) 416 3333 # (571) 339 4400 Ext 1365
Juan Cerda Pecarevic
Agustina Maira Carol Roca Associate Equity Sales
Research Coordinator Junior Analyst - Consumer & Mining jcerda@credicorpcapital.com
amaira@credicorpcapital.com croca@credicorpcapital.com # (562) 24501629
# (562) 2434 6433 # (571) 339 4400 Ext 1507
Néstor Rodriguez Gallardo
Equity Trading
nrodriguez@credicorpcapital.com
# (562) 2446 1733
FIXED INCOME SALES & TRADING
Andrés Nariño Alfredo Bejar
Director Sales Offshore Head of International FI
anarino@credicorpcapital.com alfredobejarg@credicorpcapital.com
# (571) 339-4400 Ext. 1459 # (511) 205 9190 Ext 36148
FIXED INCOME & ECONOMICS RESEARCH CHILE PERU COLOMBIA
CHILE PERU COLOMBIA Guido Riquelme Evangeline Arapoglou Carlos Sanchez
Head of Capital Markets Chile Head of international FI Sales Head of Fixed Income
Josefina Valdivia Cynthia Huaccha Camilo A. Durán griquelme@credicorpcapital.com earapoglou@credicorpcapital.com csanchez@credicorpcapital.com
Team Leader Fixed Income Research Fixed Income Associate Senior Economist # (562) 2446 1712 # (511) 416 3333 Ext 36099 # (571) 323 9154
jvaldivia@credicorpcapital.com chuaccha@credicorpcapital.com caduran@credicorpcapital.com
# (562) 2651 9308 # (511) 416 3333 Ext 37946 # (5511) 339 4400 Ext. 1383 Manuel Olivares Andrés Valderrama Gustavo Trujillo
Head of Sales Fixed Income Sales Head of Sales
Alejandro Toth Diego Camacho molivares@credicorpcapital.com jvalderrama@credicorpcapital.com gtrujillo@credicorpcapital.com
Fixed Income Analyst Senior Economist # (562) 2450 1635 # (511) 416 3333 Ext 40352 # (571) 323 9252
atoth@credicorpcapital.com dcamachoa@credicorpcapital.com
# (562) 2651 9368 # (571) 339 4400 Juan Francisco Mas Guillermo Arana Andrés Agudelo
Fixed Income Sales Sales Renta Fija Fixed Income Sales
Samuel Carrasco Madrid Daniel Heredia jfmas@credicorpcapital.com garana@credicorpcapital.com aagudelo@credicorpcapital.com
Senior Economist Economist # (562) 2446 1720 # (511) 416 3333 Ext. 36144 # (571) 339 4400 Ext 1180
acarrasco@credicorpcapital.com dheredia@credicorpcapital.com
# (562) 2446 1736 # (571) 339 4400 Diego Hidalgo Javier Curulla Emilio Luna
Local Fixed Income Sales Sales Renta Fija Fixed Income Sales
dhidalgo@credicorpcapital.com javiercarulla@credicorpcapital.com eluna@credicorpcapital.com
# (562) 2450 1693 # (511) 416 3333 # (571) 339 4400
Lizeth Espiritu Ana Lucía Rondón Medina Credicorp Capital, LLC
Fixed Income Sales Sales Renta Fija
lespiritu@credicorpcapital.com arondon@credicorpcapital.com
# (562) 2450 1619 # (511) 416 3333 Ext. 40339 Jhonathan Rico
Fixed Income Trader
Stefan Ziegele Angela Zapata jrico@credicorpcapital.com
Fixed Income Sales Sales Renta Fija # 1 (786) 9991614
sziegele@credicorpcapital.com angelazapata@credicorpcapital.com
# (562) 2446 1738 # (511) 416 3333 Ext. 40339

15

You might also like