PERT 05 Agregat Planning

Planning

Konsep Agregat Planning

Strategi Agregat Planning

Metode Agregat Planning

Agregat Planning di bidang Jasa

Manajemen Pendapatan
Planning

Setting goals & objectives

– Example: Meet demand within the limits
of available resources at the least cost

Determining steps to achieve goals
– Example: Hire more workers

Setting start & completion dates
– Example: Begin hiring in Jan.; finish, Mar.

Assigning responsibility
Figure 13.1
Planning Horizons
Responsible:
Short-range plans Operations
Job assignments managers
Ordering
Job scheduling Intermediate-range plans
Sales planning Responsible:
Dispatching
Production planning and Top executives
Responsible: budgeting
Long-range plans
Operations Setting employment, inventory,
R&D
managers, subcontracting levels
New product plans
supervisors, Analyzing operating plans
Capital expenses
foremen
Facility location, expansion

Today 3 Months 1 year 5 years

Planning Horizon
Relationships of the Aggregate Plan
Marketplace Research and
and Demand Technology
Product
Decisions
Work Force

Process
Planning & Raw Materials
Decisions Available

Demand Aggregate Inventory On

Forecasts, Schedule for Hand
orders Production
External
Master
Capacity
Production
Schedule
Detailed Work Plant
Schedules Capacity
Priority
Planning &
Scheduling
Aggregate Planning

Provides the quantity and timing of

production for intermediate future
– Usually 3 to 18 months into future

Combines (‘aggregates’) production
– Often expressed in common units
• Example: Hours, dollars, equivalents
(e.g., FTE students)

Involves capacity and demand variables

Aggregate Planning Goals

Meet demand

Use capacity
efficiently

Meet inventory policy

Minimize cost
– Labor
– Inventory
– Plant & equipment
– Subcontract
Aggregate Planning Strategies
Pure Strategies

Capacity Options — change capacity:

– changing inventory levels
– varying work force size by hiring or layoffs
– varying production capacity through overtime or
idle time
– subcontracting
– using part-time workers
Aggregate Planning Strategies
Pure Strategies

Demand Options — change demand:
– influencing demand
– backordering during high demand periods
– counterseasonal product mixing
Aggregate Planning Strategies

Mixed strategy
– Combines 2 or more aggregate scheduling options

Level scheduling strategy
– Produce same amount every day
– Keep work force level constant
– Vary non-work force capacity or demand options
– Often results in lowest production costs
Aggregate Planning Methods

Graphical & charting techniques

– Popular & easy-to-understand
– Trial & error approach

Mathematical approaches
– Transportation method
– Linear decision rule
– Management coefficients model
– Simulation
The Graphical Approach to Aggregate
Planning

Forecast the demand for each period

Determine the capacity for regular time,
overtime, and subcontracting, for each period

Determine the labor costs, hiring and firing
costs, and inventory holding costs

Consider company policies which may apply to
the workers or to stock levels

Develop alternative plans, and examine their
total costs
Comparison of Aggregate Planning
Methods
Techniques Approaches Aspects
Charting/graphica Trial and error Simple to understand, easy
l methods to use. Many solutions; one
chosen may not be optimal
Transportation Optimization LP software
method available;permits sensitivity
analysis and constraints.
Linear function may not be
realistic
Management Heuristic Simple, easy to implement;
coefficient tries to mimic manager’s
model decision process; uses
regression
Controlling the Cost of Labor in
Service Firms

Seek:
– Close control of labor hours to ensure quick
response to customer demand
– On-call labor resource that can be added or
deleted to meet unexpected demand
– Flexibility of individual worker skills to
permit reallocation of available labor
– Flexibility of individual worker in rate of
output or hours of work to meet demand
Aggregate Planning for Services
1. Most services cannot be inventoried
2. Demand for services is difficult to predict
3. Capacity is also difficult to predict
4. Service capacity must be provided at the
appropriate place and time
5. Labor is usually the most constraining
resource for services
Yield Management
Yield Management
Yield Management: Example

NO-SHOWS PROBABILITY P(N < X)

0 .15 .00
1 .25 .15
2 .30 .40 .517
3 .30 .70

Optimal probability of no-shows

Cu 75
P(n < x) ≤ = = .517
Cu + Co 75 + 70

Hotel should be overbooked by two rooms

 Operational Management

Planning Horizons
Responsible:
Short-range plans Operations
Job assignments managers
Ordering
Job scheduling Intermediate-range plans
Sales planning Responsible:
Dispatching
Production planning and Top executives
Responsible: budgeting
Long-range plans
Operations Setting employment, inventory,
R&D
managers, subcontracting levels
New product plans
supervisors, Analyzing operating plans
Capital expenses
foremen
Facility location, expansion

Today 3 Months 1 year 5 years

Planning Horizon

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 Operational Management

Developing Aggregate Plan

• Pilih strategi dasar :
– Level, chase, or hybrid
• Tetapkan tingkat produksi (rate):
– Level plan with back orders: rate = rata-rata permintaan
sepanjang batas perencanaan, selebihnya menjadi back
order.
– Level plan without back orders: rate adalah sejumlah
permintaan pada suatu waktu.
– Chase plan: melakukan produksi dengan kerja lembur
atau subkontrak dalam memenuhi permintaan.

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 Operational Management

Developing the Aggregate Plan

• Hitung jumlah tenaga kerja yang dibutuhkan
• Hitung tingkat persediaan setiap periode,
• Hitung biaya setiap periode dan biaya keseluruhan
• Evaluasi dampak rencana terhadap konsumen dan
tenaga kerja.

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 Operational Management

Evaluating Alternative Plans

• Level strategy plan
• Chase strategy plan

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 Operational Management

Aggregate Planning Example

Period 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Demand 3000 6000 2000 1500 4000 5500 8500

Beginning Inventory 2500

Beginning Workforce 18
Labor Standard (units/worker) 250

Cost
Costs Per Unit
Regular Time Labor Cost $9.60
Overtime/Subcontracting $14.40
Inventory Holding Cost $5.00
Backorders $7.50
Hiring $500.00
Layoff $750.00

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 Operational Management

Level Strategy
Aggregate Production Planning Cost Total Total
Costs Per Unit Units Cost
Regular Time Labor Cost $9.60 28000 $268,800
Overtime/Subcontracting $14.40 0 $0
Beginning Inventory 2500 Inventory Holding Cost $5.00 25000 $125,000
Beginning Workforce 18 Backorders $7.50 0 $0
Labor Standard (units/worker) 250 Hiring $500.00 0 $0
Layoff $750.00 2 $1,500
Total Costs $395,300

Period 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Demand 3000 6000 2000 1500 4000 5500 8500
Cumulative Demand 3000 9000 11000 12500 16500 22000 30500
Net Cumulative Demand 500 6500 8500 10000 14000 19500 28000

Production/Inventory Planning
Production 4000 4000 4000 4000 4000 4000 4000
Cumulative Production 4000 8000 12000 16000 20000 24000 28000
Inventory (Excess Units) 3500 1500 3500 6000 6000 4500 0
Backorders (Units Short) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Capacity Planning
Workers Hired 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Workers Layed Off 2 0 0 0 0 0 0
Workforce Available 16 16 16 16 16 16 16
Regular Time Capacity (units) 4000 4000 4000 4000 4000 4000 4000

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 Operational Management

Non-Financial Criteria
• Operations perspective:
– Smooth & even flow is easy to manage
• Human resources perspective:
– Nobody hired or fired, no overtime or furloughs, so
employee morale should be fine
• Marketing perspective:
– All demand met, so no customer service issues

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 Operational Management

Chase Strategy
Aggregate Production Planning Cost Total Total
Costs Per Unit Units Cost
Regular Time Labor Cost $9.60 28000 $268,800
Overtime/Subcontracting $14.40 0 $0
Beginning Inventory 2500 Inventory Holding Cost $5.00 0 $0
Beginning Workforce 18 Backorders $7.50 0 $0
Labor Standard (units/worker) 250 Hiring $500.00 50 $25,000
Layoff $750.00 34 $25,500
Total Costs $319,300

Period 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Demand 3000 6000 2000 1500 4000 5500 8500
Cumulative Demand 3000 9000 11000 12500 16500 22000 30500
Net Cumulative Demand 500 6500 8500 10000 14000 19500 28000

Production/Inventory Planning
Production 500 6000 2000 1500 4000 5500 8500
Cumulative Production 500 6500 8500 10000 14000 19500 28000
Inventory (Excess Units) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Backorders (Units Short) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Capacity Planning
Workers Hired 0 22 0 0 10 6 12
Workers Layed Off 16 0 16 2 0 0 0
Workforce Available 2 24 8 6 16 22 34
Regular Time Capacity (units) 500 6000 2000 1500 4000 5500 8500
Overtime/Subcontracting (units) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total Production Capacity (units) 500 6000 2000 1500 4000 5500 8500

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 Operational Management

Non-Financial Criteria
• Operations perspective:
– Can operations ramp up & back down this quickly?
– Much more difficult to accomplish
• Human resources perspective:
– Will employees tolerate being hired & fired so rapidly?
– What about training & learning curve issues?
• Marketing perspective:
– All demand is met (assuming no strikes)

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 Operational Management

A Minimum Cost Plan (Hybrid Strategy)

Aggregate Production Planning Cost Total Total
Costs Per Unit Units Cost
Regular Time Labor Cost $9.60 28000 $268,800
Overtime/Subcontracting $14.40 0 $0
Beginning Inventory 2500 Inventory Holding Cost $5.00 2750 $13,750
Beginning Workforce 18 Backorders $7.50 0 $0
Labor Standard (units/worker) 250 Hiring $500.00 28 $14,000
Layoff $750.00 12 $9,000
Total Costs $305,550

Period 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Demand 3000 6000 2000 1500 4000 5500 8500
Cumulative Demand 3000 9000 11000 12500 16500 22000 30500
Net Cumulative Demand 500 6500 8500 10000 14000 19500 28000

Production/Inventory Planning
Production 3250 3250 2000 1500 4000 5500 8500
Cumulative Production 3250 6500 8500 10000 14000 19500 28000
Inventory (Excess Units) 2750 0 0 0 0 0 0
Backorders (Units Short) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Capacity Planning
Workers Hired 0 0 0 0 10 6 12
Workers Layed Off 5 0 5 2 0 0 0
Workforce Available 13 13 8 6 16 22 34
Regular Time Capacity (units) 3250 3250 2000 1500 4000 5500 8500
Overtime/Subcontracting (units) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total Production Capacity (units) 3250 3250 2000 1500 4000 5500 8500

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