A Hybrid Model for Ride-hailing Service Demand Forecasting
Chao Wang
Beijing National Research Center of
Information Science and Technology
Tsinghua University
Beijing, China
c-wang18@mails.tsinghua.edu.cn
Xiaodan Lyu
College of Computer Science and
Technology
Guizhou University
Guiyang, China
18984170078@126.com
ABSTRACT
The accurate prediction of the ride-hailing service demand is im-
portant for the improvement of transport capability. Due to the
nonlinearity and instability of the time series, the prediction accu-
racy is not ideal. In this paper, we proposes a hybrid model that
combines Discrete Wavelet Transform (DWT), Autoregressive
Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), and Radial Basis Function
Neural Network (RBFNN) together, which takes advantage of the
good fitting ability of the ARIMA model and the strong nonlinear
relation mapping ability of the RBFNN model, and use DWT to
decompose the time series in order to isolate the influence of each
resolution coefficient to a certain extent. The experimental results
show that the proposed model has higher prediction accuracy than
the single model such as ARIMA, RBFNN and other hybrid mod-
els such as ARIMA-DWT, RBFNN-DWT, RBFNN-ARIMA,
SVR-ARIMA-DWT, LSTM-ARIMA-DWT.
CCS Concepts
• Mathematics of computing➝Time series analysis
• Mathematics of computing➝Computation of transforms
Keywords
Ride-hailing service demand forecasting; Discrete wavelet
transform; Radial basis function neural network; ARIMA
1. INTRODUCTION
With the development of the Internet, the transportation area has
been undergoing great changes. The ride-hailing service has be-
come an important part of the urban transportation system, and the
control of the network traffic has become the focus in the con-
struction of the intelligent traffic control system. Scientific and
reasonable network car demand forecasting is the key and core for
decision making. It can provide reference information for traffic
managers and participants to make decisions, and help to make
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© 2019 Association for Computing Machinery.
ACM ISBN 978-1-4503-7241-1/19/09…$15.00
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1145/3361821.3361828
40
Changchang Zheng
Department of Automation
Tsinghua University
Beijing, China
zhengcc18@mails.tsinghua.edu.cn
Yibo Xue
Beijing National Research Center of
Information Science and Technology
Tsinghua University
Beijing, China
yiboxue@tinghua.edu.cn
appropriate scheduling measures in advance to reduce congestion,
and the waste of resources caused by the empty car driving will be
reduced to some extent.
At present, researchers have proposed a large number of theoreti-
cal methods for short-term prediction, but mainly focus on road
traffic flow prediction, and this problem can be considered as a
typical time series prediction problem. A time series is a sequence
of data that represent recorded values of a phenomenon over time.
Time series data constitutes a large portion of the data stored in
real world databases [1]. The traditional time series prediction
method is represented by the "Box-Jenkins method" proposed by
Box and Jenkins [2]. The time series prediction method is widely
used in various fields. Han [3] proposed a kind of real-time adap-
tive forecasting method for short-term traffic based on the Box-
Jenkins method. Kumar [4] used the ARIMA model to predict
traffic noise levels in the future. Although the ARIMA model is
relatively simple, it does not rely on other external variables, but
theoretically it is only able to capture the linear relationship of
time series.
In addition, various machine learning algorithms are also widely
used for traffic flow prediction. Zeng [5] presented a new-short
traffic flow prediction model called AOSVR based on Support
Vector Regression (SVR) to improve time efficiency of prediction.
Although the SVR was suitable to describe the nonlinear data
pattern, a lot of adjustment work was needed in order to get better
prediction effect. Hu [6] used particle swarm optimization to
search optimal SVR parameters. Wu [7] applied SVR to predict
travel time. Alajali [8] presented ensemble decision tree models
including GBRT, RF, XGBoost to predict intersection traffic.
Neural network models are also widely adopted in traffic predic-
tion fields. Rui [9] applied the LSTM neural network to the traffic
flow prediction problem. Ma [10] applied LSTM to capture non-
linear traffic dynamic in an effective manner and achieved the
good prediction performance in terms of both accuracy and stabil-
ity. Duan [11] and Shao [12] proposed LSTM to predict travel
time and traffic flow respectively. In [13], ANN is used for short
term prediction of traffic flow, and the input also consisted of
speed, density, etc.
In the field of time series prediction, in addition to using a single
method, the hybrid model has received more and more attention
[14, 15] . In [16, 17], a hybrid model combining the artificial neu-
ral network with the ARIMA was proposed, the experimental
results showed that the combined model was able to improve
forecasting accuracy obtained by either of the models used sepa-
rately. The idea of model fusion has many applications in time
series prediction, Kunhui [18] combined linear regression with
SVR model, and the same idea of ARIMA and ANN, respectively
using linear regression and SVR models to describe the linear and
nonlinear components of time series. Castillo [19] proposed a new
method for estimating the fractal dimension of geometric objects
using fuzzy logic techniques, and combining neural networks,
fuzzy logic and fractal dimensions for the problem of time series
prediction.
Wavelet transform is widely used in engineering and signal pro-
cessing for signal and image analysis, noise reduction, compres-
sion, etc. [20] Nowadays, wavelet transform, as a means of data
processing, often appears in the prediction of traffic flow. Xie [21]
proposed a novel method combining the Kalman filter with wave-
let decomposition for short-term traffic volume forecasting,
Mousavizadeh Kashi [22] developed a framework to predict the
value of traffic flow based on the combination of wavelet trans-
formation and ANN, Sun [23] adopted DWT with different
threshold values to decompose the high-frequent-noise to improve
the accuracy of the traffic flow prediction. In other fields, Yao [24]
combined the LSTM with wavelet decomposition for wind energy
prediction. Choi [25] used a hybrid model combining SARIMA
with wavelet decomposition to predict commodity sales. In [26], a
hybrid model of Elman neural network and LSTM based wavelet
decomposition method was proposed.
It can be concluded that the accuracy of prediction is able to be
improved by the fusion of methods in the introduction of time
series prediction. Inspired by this, we proposed a hybrid RBFNN-
ARIMA model based on the DWT. Since actual time series data
often contains both linear component and nonlinear correlation
structure, while a single model does not have the ability to simul-
taneously model linear and nonlinear parts. In this regard, we
adopt the discrete wavelet transform method to isolates the influ-
ence of each resolution coefficient to a certain extent. Further, the
hybrid RBFNN-ARIMA model aims to take advantage of the
good fitting ability of the ARIMA model and the strong nonlinear
relation mapping ability of the RBFNN model. Through the inte-
gration of these three models, it can efficiently improve the accu-
racy of the forecast of the demand for the ride-hailing service.
The remainder of this paper is structured as follows: In Section 2,
the principles of the proposed method are described. In Section 3,
the hybrid model will be applied to predict ride-hailing service
demand, and the prediction results are presented and compared
with those of other methods. In Section 4, conclusion will be
made.
2. Hybrid RBFNN-ARIMA Model
The ride-hailing service demand data X t often contains both linear
components Lt and nonlinear correlation structure N t , can be rep-
resented X t = Lt + Nt . Therefore, it is difficult for a single linear
model or nonlinear model to simultaneously solve the prediction
of linear and nonlinear components in time series.
2.2 Basis Idea
From Section 2.1, the ride-hailing service demand data includes
both linear component and nonlinear correlation structure. How-
ever, a single time series forecasting model does not have the
ability to simultaneously predict linear and nonlinear parts. In
order to solve this issue, we proposed the hybrid RBFNN-ARIMA
model based on the DWT to improve the accuracy of ride-hailing
service demand forecasting. The ideas are as follow:
a) We adopt discrete wavelet transform to decompose the origi-
nal time series into approximate coefficient and detail coeffi-
cient. In this way, the correlation between the linear and the
nonlinear components is able to be weakened to some extent.
b) Then we need to model the approximate and detail coeffi-
cients obtained by DWT. However, there are still linear and
nonlinear components in the coefficients. For the linear com-
ponents, we use the traditional linear model, ARIMA to pre-
dict. For the nonlinear correlation structure, we use RBFNN
to predict. So we can obtain the prediction result Lˆt of the
linear part and Nˆ t of the nonlinear part, then we combine
them to obtain the prediction result Xˆ app of the approxima-
tion coefficient and X̂ det of the detail coefficient.
c) Finally, we obtain the ride-hailing service demand forecast-
ing result X̂ through discrete wavelet reconstruction.
The framework of the proposed model is illustrated in Figure 1.
Training Process Input
data
Discrete Wavelet
Transform
Low High High
Frquency Frquency ... Frquency
Sub-layer Sub-layer Sub-layer
Normalization Normalization ... Normalization
...
RBFNN RBFNN RBFNN

2.1 Problem Description Residual Residual ... Residual

A time series is the set of random variables sorted by time, usually
the result of observing a certain process in equal time intervals. ARIMA ( p1 , d1 , q1 ) ARIMA ( p2 , d 2 , q2 ) ... ARIMA ( pn , d n , qn )
The ride-hailing service demand data can be defined as a vector
x ( t ) , t = 0,1,2, where t represents the time elapsed. Prediction
values
Prediction
values
... Prediction
values
The biggest difference between time series data and other types of Denormalization Denormalization ... Denormalization
data is that the current time data has relation with the previous
data value. It indicates that past data has an influence on the future
development trend of data and this feature of time series is exactly Inverse wavelet
transform
the basis of time series prediction. The ride-hailing service de-
mand forecasting can be represented as: given ride-hailing service Final
demand data from the previous k time slices(i.e.,  xT − k , , xT  ), Testing Process prediction
results
the objective is to infer the value xT through  xT − k , xT −1  .
Figure 1. The framework of the proposed model

41
2.3 Hybrid RBFNN-ARIMA Model
The prediction accuracy can be improved by the fusion of meth-
ods, so we proposed the hybrid RBFNN-ARIMA model to predict
the ride-hailing service demand. The hybrid model mainly con-
tains of two phases: Firstly, the time series is preprocessed by
wavelet transform to obtain a set of well-behaved coefficients, and
the wavelet coefficients are modeled and predicted respectively.
Secondly, considering that RBFNN has the best local approxima-
tion ability, it can better analyze and predict nonlinear component
in time series compared with MLP network, and at the same time
we take advantage of ARIMA model for processing linear com-
ponent in time series.
A. Data Decomposition with Discrete Wavelet Transform
“Wavelet” refers to a wave with features that are small in area,
limited in length, and have a mean of zero, so the features enables
the wavelet transform to accurately locate the instantaneous char-
acteristics of the signal over time and frequency domains [27],
which is widely used for frequency conversion of complex signals.
The type of wavelet used in this paper is ‘db4’ wavelet transform
which is a sample Daubechies wavelet [28] and suitable to detect
time-localized information.
For the input ride-hailing service demand y ( t ) , the formula of
discrete wavelet transform is shown as follow:
 1  t − k 2j 
DWT ( j , k ) =  y ( t ) 
−
2j  2
The wavelet transform has zooming performance with the change
of j, k, its time-frequency window automatically widens at low
frequencies, which can fully analyze the low-frequency infor-
mation characteristics of the signal. And at high frequencies, the
time-frequency window automatically narrows, thereby determin-
ing the high-frequency details of the signal.
The algorithm for the discrete wavelet transform is the Mallat
algorithm [29]. The Mallat algorithm can decompose signals into
approximate coefficient and detail coefficient at different scales j,
and the decomposition structure is shown in Figure 2.
hn 2 D1
Where A represents the approximation coefficient, D represents
the detail coefficient, j is the scale, n is the number of data
points, h and g respectively represents the low-pass and high-pass
filters in the wavelet transform multi-resolution analysis.
B. Sliding Window Technique
Sliding window technique is a kind of processing method in data
streams, which has many applications in intrusion detection.
When sliding window moves to the next block, new block is add-
ed to the window at intervals, and the oldest block is deleted.
Through this dynamic sample selection method, the sample for
modeling is updated [30].
Through the sliding windows technique, it can convert the time
series prediction problems into the traditional supervised learning
problems, including input variables (X) and the output variables
(Y). The time series is divided into several parts of data blocks.
Assuming the time series is  x1 , x2 , , xN  and the window size is
set to w , then the divided block will be  xi , xi +1, , xi + w  . In this
data block, the input variable is  xi , xi +1 , , xi + w−1  , the output
variable is  xi + w  . In this way, the time series is decomposed into
data sets with input and output variables, and the time series prob-
lem is able to be solved by the traditional machine learning model.
If the length of the original time series is N , the datasets is ob-
tained through the sliding window technique, the number of fea-
j  dt (1) tures is the window size w , and the number of samples consisted
 in the datasets is N − w + 1 .
In the following example, one-step dynamic is adopted, that is,
only one time point is predicted, and the next time point is pre-
dicted based on the predicted value of the current time point, in-
stead of the actual value. The sliding windows technique and one-
step dynamic forecast in time series are shown in Figure 3:
Training Set Test Set
x1 x2 x3 x4 x5 . . . xm−3 xm−2 xm−1 x m x m +1 . . . xn
x1 x2 x3 x4 xm −3 xm − 2 xm −1 xˆm
Train Predict
x2 x3 x4 x5 Model xm − 2 xm −1 xˆm xˆm +1
...

y (n) hn 2 D2 ...
xm − 4 xm −3 xm − 2 xm −1 xˆn −3 xˆn − 2 xˆn −1 xˆn
gn 2 A1 hn 2 D3
Input variable Output variable
Level 1
gn 2 A2 Figure 3. Sliding window technique (the size is set to 4) and
... One-step dynamic forecast
Level 2
gn 2 A3 C. The Nonlinear Component Training with RBFNN Model
Level 3 Prior to the training with RBFNN model, data must be normalized
to make the convergence of RBFNN training faster. The normali-
Figure 2. The Mallat decomposition algorithm zation technique adopted in this paper is Min-Max normalization,
For the multi-resolution characteristics of wavelets, the variable j a linear transformation on original range of data. The normaliza-
is used to determine the resolution at different scales. The rela- tion formula is as follow:
tionship between wavelet coefficients at adjacent resolutions in
Figure 2 is shown as follow. X − X min
X norm = (3)
+
X max − X min
A d
j +1, n = h
k =−
k − 2n A d
j,k
Where X min is the smallest value of the array X , and X max is
+
(2)
the biggest.
D dj +1, n = g
k =−
k − 2n Adj , k

42
Radial basis function (RBF) was firstly applied to artificial neural The implementation of sliding window technique on RBFNN is
network design by Broomhead et al, and then the radial basis shown in Figure 4.
function neural network (RBFNN) was constructed [31]. The
RBFNN consists of three layers: the input layer, the hidden layer, y
and the output layer. Unlike traditional artificial neural networks, Input Slide
the hidden layer uses a radial basis function including Gauss func- variable
tion, Reflected Sinusoidal function and Inverse Multiquadric func-
tion. In this paper, Gauss function is used.

 x − i
2

 ( x − i ) = exp  −  (4) t
 2 i 2

  xi + w

Where i and  i denote the clustering center and a kernel width

xi +1
parameter of the i-th hidden neuron. .
. . W1
. . Output
While the hidden layer and the output layer are in a linear rela- xi + k . variable

Wj
tionship, the output y can be obtained by
. .
n . .
y = Wi ( x − i ) +  xi + w −1 . Wn
(5) .
i =1

Where wi is the weight from the i-th hidden neuron to the output, Input layer Hidden layer Output layer
and n denotes the number of hidden neurons. Figure 4. Sliding window technique in RBFNN
The input and output variable obtained by using the sliding win-
dow technique will be applied for RBFNN training.

43
D. The Linear Component Training with ARIMA Model 3.2 Model Evaluation Indices
The ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) model In order to evaluate the performance of the fusion model proposed
is one of the most commonly used models for time series predic- in this paper, the following three indicators are adopted: RMSE,
tion. In this paper, the ARIMA model is adopted to model the MAE, MAPE.
linear correlation structure of the ride-hailing service demand data.
1 n
The modeling process of the ARIMA model are mainly three MAE =  yi − yi'
n i =1
(6)
steps: Model Identification, Model Estimation, and Model Valida-
tion. The detailed process is shown in Figure 5.
1 n yi − yi'
Start
MAPE = 
n i =1 yi
(7)

Time series
 ( yi − yi' )
1 n 2
RMSE = (8)
n i =1
No Difference
Is series stationary?
computation
Where yi is the real value, yi' is the prediction value, and n de-
Yes
notes the length of the time series.
Model identification
3.3 Experimental Design
Parameter estimation For the time series prediction, the hybrid model firstly preprocess-
es the data. In order to make the convergence of RBFNN training
Diagnostic checking faster, the data needs to be normalized. Then, the hybrid model
decomposes the original sequence into better performing approx-
imation coefficients and detail coefficients by discrete wavelet
Is the model valid No transform. Among them, the approximation coefficient represents
for the desired goals? the low frequency information in the original sequence, and the
Yes detail coefficient describes the high frequency information. Exper-
imental results show that the “db4” wavelet is suitable for wavelet
Time series forecasting
decomposition and reconstruction of the experimental data, and
the resolution of wavelet decomposition is set to 1.
End
A. Model Parameters Selection
Figure 5. Flowchart of ARIMA modeling In the time series prediction process, the RBFNN is first used to
E. The Algorithm of Hybrid RBFNN-ARIMA Model predict the nonlinear trend of the applied data. For the prediction
According to the model framework in Section 2.2, the algorithm of the approximate coefficient, the number of input layer nodes of
of proposed hybrid RBFNN-ARIMA model is elaborately pre- the RBFNN is set to 20, the number of hidden neurons is set to 90,
sented in Alg.1. and the number of output layer nodes is set to 1. For the prediction
of the detail coefficient, the number of input layer nodes is set to
3. Experiments and Comparisons 20, the number of hidden neurons is set to 60, the learning rate of
In this section, the proposed model is used to predict the ride- RBFNN is set to 0.01, and the initial parameters are randomly
hailing service demand. Detailed experiments will be conducted selected.
and the comparisons with the other methods will also be made. According to the training error of RBFNN, the linear relationship
in the experimental data will be obtained by using the ARIMA
3.1 Applied Dataset model to further improve the prediction accuracy. For the predic-
The data comes from the ride-hailing service demand data of a
tion of the approximate coefficient, the model parameters (p, d, q)
certain area collected by Didi Chuxing Technology Co. The time
is set to (9, 0, 0), and the parameters for the detail coefficient is
interval is 15 minutes, and a total of 840 data points are collected.
set to (6, 0, 3). Figure 7 shows the prediction results of the
The raw data is shown in Figure 6. In the experiment, one-step
RBFNN-ARIMA model on the wavelet coefficients.
dynamic forecast is used to predict 8 data points.
B. Experiment Comparison
Consider the comparison of the RBFNN-ARIMA model with
other models from three aspects.
⚫ The hybrid RBFNN-ARIMA model based on the DWT is
compared with the single models such as RBFNN, ARIMA,
and other hybrid models like RBFNN-ARIMA, RBFNN-
DWT to verify whether the proposed model is able to im-
prove the prediction accuracy of the ride-hailing service
demand.
⚫ The hybrid RBFNN-ARIMA model is compared with other
hybrid model based on different prediction algorithms, such
as SVR-ARIMA-DWT and LSTM-ARIMA-DWT to verify
Figure 6. The raw data whether the RBFNN model has higher prediction accuracy.

44
⚫ Compare the prediction performance of the hybrid model
based on other different prediction algorithms like the SVR-
ARIMA-DWT model with its single model like SVR, SVR-
DWT, SVR-ARIMA to verify whether the prediction
framework is valid.
3.4 Result and Discussion
The comparison results are shown in Table 1, Figure 8, and Figure
9. According to the results of the above comparison, the analysis
of evaluation indexes are as follows:
1. By comparing the proposed hybrid model RBFNN-ARIMA
with other models RBFNN, ARIMA RBFNN-DWT,
RBFNN-ARIMA, ARIMA-DWT, the proposed model has
the smallest prediction error. For example, compared to
ARIMA, ARIMA-DWT, RBFNN, RBFNN-ARIMA,
RBFNN-DWT, the RMSE values of the proposed model re-
spectively decreased by 78.2%, 77.12%, 52.7%, 43.2%, and
26.3%. The experimental results show that using DWT to
obtain better wavelet coefficients and combining RBFNN
with ARIMA to characterize the nonlinear and linear rela-
tionships in time series is useful for improving the predic-
tion performance of the model.
2. Compared with the hybrid SVR-ARIMA-DWT and LSTM-
ARIMA-DWT models, the proposed model RBFNN-
ARIMA has the smallest prediction error. Its RMSE index
decreased by 14.3% and 29.4%, respectively. The experi-
mental results show that RBFNN is more suitable for the
ride-hailing service demand forecasting because it has the
best approximation ability to nonlinearity. In addition,
RBFNN has higher training efficiency than other neural
network models such as LSTM and MLR.
3. By using the other prediction algorithms applied to the ride-
hailing service demand prediction framework shown in Fig-
ure 1, including the SVR and LSTM algorithms widely used
in time series prediction nowadays, the hybrid models SVR-
ARIMA-DWT and LSTM-ARIMA-DWT perform better
than its single model. The experimental results prove that
the model fusion idea is effective.

Figure 7. One-step dynamic forecasting results of wavelet coefficient

Table 1. The evaluation indexes of models

Indexes
Models
RMSE MAE MAPE
ARIMA 40.048 32.695 0.563
ARIMA-DWT 38.140 32.082 0.546
RBFNN 18.431 14.639 0.257
RBFNN-ARIMA 15.364 13.579 0.180
RBFNN-DWT 11.850 10.449 0.145
RBFNN-ARIMA-DWT 8.724 8.420 0.123
SVR 14.759 12.087 0.170
SVR-ARIMA 11.180 9.155 0.135
SVR-DWT 14.016 11.863 0.180
SVR-ARIMA-DWT 10.174 8.170 0.125
LSTM 17.159 12.661 0.223
LSTM-DWT 12.631 10.668 0.169
LSTM-ARIMA-DWT 12.362 11.054 0.177

45
 Figure 8. Performance comparison of different methods
Figure 9. Prediction results of different models
4. CONCLUSION
In this paper, we proposed a hybrid RBFNN-ARIM model based
on the DWT. The DWT is used to decompose original time series
into approximate coefficient and detail coefficient. The hybrid
RBFNN-ARIMA model was used to model both nonlinear and
linear components of time series. As the experimental results
shown, compared to single model and other hybrid models such as
SVR-ARIMA-DWT and LSTM-ARIMA-DWT, the proposed
hybrid model RBFNN-ARIMA has been proved to have the best
forecasting abilities. In addition, the experimental results also
prove that the hybrid model idea proposed in this paper is equally
effective for other prediction algorithms, such as the traditional
machine learning algorithm SVR and the current popular cyclic
neural network LSTM.
Although the hybrid model has better predictive ability, the hybrid
model has more parameters, which brings challenges to the pa-
rameter adjustment work. How to ensure the excellent predictive
46
ability of the hybrid model and simplify the parameter adjustment
task is a focus of future work.
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