“Addressing Impacts of Climate Change:

Global Experience”
18– 09 – 2009
WII,Dehradun

By
Sandeep Tripathi
IFS
DIRECTOR (Research)
Indian Council of Forestry Research and Education
Dehra Dun
 Our climate is changing

• In a irreversible direction
• On an increasingly faster rates
• Mainly due to anthropogenic
reasons
Source: IPCC, 2007, WGI Report
 (280 in 1750 to 379 ppm)

(715 in 1750 to 1774 ppb)

(270 in 1750 to 319 ppb)

Source: IPCC, 2007, WG I Report

(a)-global emission 1970-2004, (b)-share of GHG gases, (c) sectoral shares
Global mean temperatures are rising faster with time

Warmest 12 years:
1998,2005,2003,2002,2004,2006,
2001,1997,1995,1999,1990,2000

Period Rate
50 0.1280.026
100 0.0740.018
Years /decade
 Projections of Future Climate

Best estimate for

low scenario (B1)
is 1.8°C (likely
range is 1.1°C to
2.9°C), and for
high scenario
(A1FI) is 4.0°C
(likely range is
2.4°C to 6.4°C).
Projections of Future Climate
 Projected Future Impacts of Climate
Change
• Global surface warming over the 21st century - 2o C to 4.5o C
• Increase in precipitation in high latitudes, and likely decreases
in most subtropical land regions continues
• Contraction of snow cover area /Glaciers continue to recede
• Sea level rise – 0.02 m by middle, and 0.15 m by 21st century
• Ocean acidification with reduction in ocean pH of between 0.14
and 0.35 units over the 21st century
• Decrease in freshwater availability- Drought
• River basins – increased flood hazard, from 1.4-1.6 billion in
1995 to 4.3-6.9 billion in 2050
• Coastal areas, small islands and low lying areas are key
hotspots of societal vulnerability (intense tropical cyclones)
Source: IPCC (2007)
 IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE
ON FOREST ECOSYSTEMS
• Increased risk of extinction and loss of biodiversity
– Approximately 20-30% of species at risk if warming exceeds
1.5 – 2.5 °C (relative to 1980-1999)
– Approximately 40-70% of species at risk if warming exceeds
above 3.5 °C
• On forests and forest functions
– Migration of species, flowering, pollination, bird arrival
• Likely changes structure and functions
- Diversity,maintenance, productivity, carbon sequestration,
water cycling, etc.
• Enhanced natural disturbances such as fires, pests and
extreme climatic events
 Forests and Climate change
• Sinks: remove CO2 from the atmosphere
– Forests and other terrestrial sinks absorb 2.6 GtC annually
(AR4)
– ICFRE estimates Indian forests absorb 38 mtc annually

• Reservoirs: keep carbon as biomass

– According to FAO estimates forests store about 638 GtC
– ICFRE estimates Indian forests stock 6.6 Gtc

• Sources: releases gases like carbon dioxide and methane when

forests are destroyed
– Deforestation and other land-use activities emit 1.6 GtC
annually (AR4)
– Forest sector, mostly deforestation, accounts for 17 % of the
total anthropogenic GHG emissions
 IPCC 4th Assessment Report

Share of different sectors in total anthropogenic

GHG emissions in 2004 in terms of CO2 equivalent
• Energy Supply 25.9%
• Industry 19.4%
• Forestry 17.4%
• Agriculture 13.5%
• Residential and 7.9%
Commercial building
• Waste and Wastewater 2.8%
 Sequestration Potential of Indian
Forests and Trees
• Carbon Stocks in 1995- 6,245 million tonnes
• Carbon Stocks in 2005- 6,662 million tonnes
• Annual Increment of 38 mt of C or 138 mt of
CO2
• Valuation of carbon Stock-24000mt CO2
-Rs. 6,000,000 crore @$US5
• Incremental Value of Carbon Stocks-Rs.6,000
crore
 Climate Change: Adaptation Strategies
• ADAPTION- RESPONSE TO CLIMATE CHANGE BY
ADAPTING TO ITS IMPACTS
• Only Win-Win & No Regret Options be considered
• Improved Tree Varieties & Clones
• Develop drought & pest resistance in commercial tree
species
• Develop fire and insect management practices
• Improved Land Management/rotation/harvesting
• Biodiversity conservation by multi-species plantations
• Rationalize PA Boundaries/ Corridors
Forestry Based Mitigation Options

MITIGATION- Stabilization of Co2 in atmosphere

• Reduced Deforestation/Stabilization- Slowing or

stopping loss of existing forests: preserving current
C reservoirs
• Afforestation & Reforestation- Carbon Sequestration
by adding to the planets vegetative cover: enlarging
living terrestrial C reservoirs.
• Forest Management- Improved productivity,
Increasing the C stored in C reservoirs such as
agricultural soils and harvested wood products.
• Bio-Energy- Substituting sustainable biomass energy
sources for fossil fuel consumption
 The United Nations
Framework convention on
Climate Change (UNFCCC)
• 1988: UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC)
– Established by UN to assess technical information
• June 1992: Rio “Earth Summit” UN Framework
Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
– 21 March 1994 - entry into force
 The Kyoto Protocol
• Adopted in Kyoto, COP 3, 1997 after two and half
years of negotiations with support of 141 nations
without USA and Australia
• The Kyoto Protocol of United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
enforced on 16th February 2005
• 38 industrialized countries have ratified the treaty
and are legally bound to reduce their green house
gas emission (GHG) by 5.2 % before 2012 with
targets set for each nations based on their 1990
level
 C emission Levels Under
UNFCCC

Kyoto Protocol Starts

2008-2012-

1990 2000 2005 2010

2002 5.2%
 MARKET BASED MECHANISMS
(i) Emission Trading( Article 17): Allow the
developed countries to transfer emissions credits to
each other
(ii) Joint Implementation (Article 6): Implemented
between two developed (Annex 1) countries.
Credits obtained by investing countries are offset by
debits to the country hosting the Project
(iii) The Clean Development Mechanism (Article 12 )
 The Clean Development Mechanism
(CDM)-Article 12
• To promote sustainable development by encouraging
investments by Governments and Private firms in
environmental friendly projects in developing countries
that reduce or avoid emission.
• Implemented between Annex I and Non-Annex I countries
in the geographic territory of Non-Annex countries
• Developed countries receive credit against their targets
for emissions avoided by these projects.
 How CDM operates
• As a result of Kyoto Protocol carbon has become a
tradable commodity
• Any entity (foreign, domestic, joint venture, public,
corporate, non-profit) may set up a project to produce
any good (e.g. steel) or any service (e.g.
transportation), in a non-Annex I Party
• One Tonne of CO2 reduced through a CDM Project is
known as a Certified Emission Reduction (CER) when
issued by CDM EB and transferred to the buyer in
Annex-I country which can be traded
 Small Scale A&R Projects
COP 10 Buenos Aires (Dec, 2004):
Adopted simplified Modalities and Procedures for
Small Scale A&R Projects
Small scale project activities under CDM are
expected to result in net anthropogenic GHG

removals by sinks of <8kt of CO2 (Now 16 kt

post Bali)annually and are developed or

implemented by low-income communities
 Small Scale A&R Projects
To reduce transaction costs, modalities and
procedures are simplified for small-scale A&R
projects under CDM:
• Bundling allowed for PDD, validation,
registration, monitoring, verification &
certification
• Requirements of PDD reduced
• Simplified baseline methodologies
• Monitoring plans & requirements simpler
• Same DOE may undertake validation,
verification & certification
CDM project pipeline: > 3000
Registered: 1764
Requesting registration: 50
A&R (Forestry):
35 methodologies submitted
10 methodologies approved
3 Small Scale A&R methodology approved
5 A&R Project registered
 
                                                                                                                                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                                                                                                       
 
                                                                                                                                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                                                                                                       
 
                                                                                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                                                                   
 
                                                                                                                                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                                                                                                       
 
                                                                                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                                                                   
 
                                                                                                                                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                                                                                                       
 Steps for CDM Project Approval
• Develop Project Idea Note
• Seek Project Development Funding
• Engage Designated Operational Entity
• Creation of Project Design Document
• Host Country Letter of Approval
• Designated Operational Entity to validate PDD
• Project Registration
• verification and issuance of CERs
 Submission of PCN and PDD
Host Country Approval with 2 CDs to NCDMA

NCDMA
Single window clearance Circulation among
Submit the Project NCDMA members
Concept Note (PCN) and
NCDMA
Project Design Document
(PDD).
Presentation by Project meets
Developed during NCDMA once in a
NCDMA examines the meeting
Project month
Once the Authority is
satisfied, Clarification / additional information
from Project Development if
Project conforms to the
required by NCDMA members
norms governing the
CDM,
Host Country Approval
(HCA) issued Host country
approval letter
 CDM Project cycle
Project Design and
Formulation (PCN & PDD) PDD

National Approval DNA

Validation/ Registration DOE

Project Financing Investor

Project participant
Monitoring
Monitoring Report
Verification and DOE
Certification
Verification/Certification/
request for CER
Issuance of CERs CDM-EB/Registry
Activity Reports Institutions
 Technological/Methodological
Issues
• Additionality
– Physical
– Financial
• Baseline scenario
• Leakage
• Land Eligibility
• Bundling and PoA
 ADDITIONALITY
A project activity is “additional” or “not
additional”. Accordingly it gets 100% or
0% of the carbon credits.

Under the Kyoto Protocol “additionality”

is a “yes” or “no” judgment.
Baseline study – ex ante (Projection)

Carbon Additional Project

carbon carbon ex ante
= Estimation of
what may
occur under the
CDM

Baseline
carbon ex ante
BASELINE STUDY = Estimation of
Time
what would
otherwise occur
Project crediting period
Only the “additional carbon” has a potential market value.
 Leakage
Leakage = Increased GHG emissions outside the project boundary attributable to
the project activity (e.g. induced land use/cover change, increased consumption of
fossil fuels) and measurable.
Project Area Nearby the Project Area
2005 2005

2005+X 2005+ CO2

X
C
C
The method to be used to assess leakage is part of the “baseline”
methodology.
Carbon benefits of A/R CDM project activities

Project Baseline (decrease in

the carbon

“Net anthropogenic GHG

scenario scenario
stocks in the
changes in (changes

removal by sinks”
carbon pools)
the carbon in the
stocks in carbon
increase
=
the carbon stocks in in
pools) the carbon emissions

=
pools) =
= Leakage
“Actual net “Baseline net
GHG removal GHG removal
by sinks” by sinks”
Outside the project
boundary,
Within the project boundary “attributable” and
“measurable”
 For land use, land-use change
and Forestry activities following
definitions shall apply:

“Forest” is a
• minimum area of land of 0.05 – 1.0 ha
• with tree crown cover of 10 – 30 per cent
• trees with the potential to reach a
minimum height of 2 – 5 meters
 Forest Definition
India's original Forest definition:
Tree crown Cover 10-30% (30%)
Tree Height: 2-5 m (5m)
Minimum area: 0.05-1 ha (0.05ha)
Serious thought was given to this issue and changes
were recommended:
UNFCCC changed the country forest definition as
follows:
Tree crown Cover (15%)
Tree Height: (2m)
Minimum area: (0.05ha)
(a) “Afforestation” is direct human-
induced conversion of land that has not

been forested for a period of at least 50

years to forested land through planting,

seeding and/or the human-induced
promotion of natural seed sources
(b) “Reforestation” is direct human-
induced conversion of non-forested
land to forested land, that did not
contain forest on 31 December 1989
,through planting, seeding and/or the
human-induced promotion of natural
seed sources
 Country Forest definition for CDM AR projects
  Country For afforestation and reforestation project activities -
Host Party's selected single minimum:
Tree crown cover Land area value Tree height
value between 10 between 0.05 value between 2
and 30 % and 1 hectare and 5 metres
1 Albania 30 0.1 3
2 Cambodia 30 1 5
3 China 20 0.067 2
4 Colombia 30 1 5
5 Costa Rica 30 1 5
6 Dem Rep of the Congo 30 1 5

7 Honduras 30 1 5
8 India 30 ( 15%) 0.05 5(2)
9 Nicaragua 20 1 4
10 Republic of Moldova 30 0.25 5
11 Uganda 30 1.0 5
12 Viet Nam 30 0.5 3
13 Yemen 30 0.5 3
 Bundling and PoA
• Bundling-Bringing together of several small-
scale CDM project activities, without the loss of
distinctive characteristics of each project
activity. Verification by one DOE

• Programme of activities (PoA)-Registration of

local/regional/national policies or standards as
CDM project activities by voluntary
implementation of such policies by stakeholders
/ organizations/individuals
 CDM A&R Projects from India
Sl.N Name of the Project Project Developer CO2 Size (ha) Remarks
o. Removal/
yr (kt)

1. Bagepalli CDM Afforestation Women for 8.0 1383 Baseline Methodology not
Programme Sustainable approved by CDM EB
Development (WSD),
Bangalore

2. The International small group and Tree Active TIST Small 51.6 2 million Not submitted to CDM EB
Planting Programme Group trees
Tamil Nadu

3. Improving Rural Livelihood through VEDA MACS 20.0 3500 Supported by WB Carbon
Carbon Sequestration by Adapting Hyderabad Finance Yet submitted to
Environment Friendly technology CDM EB
Based Afforestation Practices

4. Afforestation of the Cropland ITC Bhadrachalam 47.6 3658 Approved by CDM EB

through Agroforestry Practices in
3658 Ha. Area in Khammam District
of Andhra Pradesh , India under
ITCs Farm Forestry Project

5. Small-scale Cooperative Haryana Forest 2.9 369.5 Approved by CDM EB

Afforestation CDM Pilot Project Department
Activity on Private lands Affected by
Shifting Sand Dunes in Sirsa,
Haryana and The Haryana CDM
Variksh Kisan Samiti.
 Investment in CDM Projects
Investment in Rs. Crores Vs Years

70,000
65,402
60,000
Investment in Rs.Crores

50,000

40,000
36,451
30,000

20,000
15,933
10,000

0 358 1,794
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Year
Potential opportunities for India..
• As on March 2009 398 out of 1445
projects registered by EB are from India
• NCDMA has accorded host country
approval to 1226 projects having an
investment of Rs. 151,397 crores with a
potential of 573 million CER having
value of US $ 5.73 billion by 2012.
• Assuming 10% share of Sink Projects
India can fetch US $500 million by 2012
International Carbon Market Trading

Amount of Carbon Traded (Mt CO2)

 Reducing Deforestation in Developing Countries

• First Deliberated in COP – 11 at Montreal 2005

• Followed up by Workshops at Rome, Italy in August
2006 and Cairns, Australia in March 2007
• In COP 12 at Nairobi, SBSTA 26 at Bonn India pleaded
for incentives towards conservation measures also
• In COP -13 at Bali discussion on exiting & potential
Policy Approaches, incentives & methodological issues
• In COP-14 at Poznan role on conservation, SMF &
increase in forest cover recognized under- REDD +
• Draft text for COP-15 Copenhagen 2009
 Change in extent of Forest Cover and wooded lands 1990-2005
(Excluding Annex I Countries, Data Source: FAO, 2005)
S. Countries Number Area 1,000 ha Annual Change
No. of
Countries 1990 2005 1,000 ha/ %
year

1 Non Annex 27 443,092 479,624 2,436 +0.55

Countries with
increasing
forest cover
and other
wooded lands
2 Non Annex 74 2484,885 2283,436 13,430 - 0.54
Countries with
decreasing
forest cover
and other
wooded lands
3 Countries with 90 - - - -
negligible or
No change
 Nations: Decreasing Forest Cover
Top 15 Non Annex 1 Countries

1990 2000 2005

Area (Million ha)

154
600
500
400
300
47 115 419 201 180
200 69 95 86 166
27 56 97 55 48
100
0

Numbers above the bars represent the years needed to reach zero forest
cover with present rate of deforestation (from 2005)

Source: FRA 2005 (FAO 2005)

 Nations: Increasing Forest Cover
Top 10 Non Annex 1 Countries

200
Area (Million ha)

150
1990
100 1995
2005
50

Source: FRA 2005 (FAO, 2005)

 REDD+

• Compensated Conservation suggested by India

(2007) and supported by others
The Bali Action Plan calls for:
“Policy approaches and positive incentives on issues
relating to reducing emissions from deforestation and
forest degradation in developing countries; and the role
of conservation, sustainable management of
forests and enhancement of forest carbon stocks in
developing countries;”[FCCC/CP/2007/6/Add.1, 14 March
2008; Decision 1/CP.13 [BAP], paragraph 1(b)(iii)]
 Incentives Claim: India
Proposed policy approach of
Compensated Conservation seeks
incentive for
1. incremental stocks of 0.96 GtC between
2006-2030 (projected increase from
8.79 GtC in 2006 to 9.75 GtC in 2030)
2. baseline stocks of 8.79 GtC as on 2006
 NATIONALACTION PLAN ON CLIMATE
CHANGE ( NAPCC)& OTHER INITIATIVES

• 8 MISSIONS IDENTIFIED
 Green India-Treating 5 million ha degraded forest land -
Afforestation of 18 m ha wasteland by 12 FYP (2016-17)
Annual target- 3.3 m ha( additional 2.2 mha)
Financial target- Rs. 77,000/- crores (additional (@ Rs
50,000/- ha)
Fund for Regeneration & Sustainable Development-Initial
corpus of US$2.5 b and annual Budget of US$1b
CAMPA Fund –Rs. 11,000/- crores
Availing CDM benefit