INVESTOR DIGEST

Equity Research | 16 July 2021

Economic Data HIGHLIGHT

Latest 2021F
• Jun-2021 Trade Data: Widening Gap between Export and Import Ahead
7-DRRR (%), eop 3.50 3.05 • Banking: 5M21 Results – YoY Turnaround But Looming Risks
Inflation (YoY %) 1.33 2.92 • Banking Data Apr-21: Loan Growth Slowed Down
US$ 1 = Rp, period avg 14,523 14,085 • Bumi Serpong Damai: 2Q21 Presales - Continued Traction (BSDE; Rp920; Buy; TP:
Rp1,630)
• Indocement Jun-21: Strong Growth from Base Effect, Market Share Improvement
Stock Market Data
(15 July 2021) (INTP; Rp10,375, Buy; TP: Rp14,500)
• Daily Covid-19 Update: Data as of 15 Jul-21
JCI Index 6,046.8 1.13%
Trading T/O ( Rp bn ) 8,636.0
Market Cap ( Rp tn ) 7,168.9 ECONOMY

Jun-2021 Trade Data: Widening Gap between Export and Import Ahead

Market Data Summary*  Lower trade surplus. The Jun-2021 trade surplus came out lower than expected
(USD 1.3bn vs. our expectation at USD 2.2bn) due to the higher-than-projected
2021F 2022F imports. Meanwhile, export was aligned with our estimate. On a quarterly basis,
trade recorded a USD 6.1bn surplus in 2Q21, larger than in 1Q21 at USD 5.6bn.
P/E (x) 17.8 15.3
 Solid export growth. Total exports rose by 54.5% YoY in Jun-2021 (vs. 62.0% in
P/BV (x) 2.1 2.0
May-2021), with the month-on-month figure growing by 9.5%. Oil & gas export
EV/EBITDA (x) 13.1 12.3
recorded a substantial increase of 117.1% YoY, partly owing to the upbeat global
Div. Yield (%) 2.7 2.9
oil price. The manufacturing export also continued to record robust growth
Net Gearing (%) 24.7 20.8
(45.9% YoY in Jun-2021 vs. 33.4% in 1H21), aligned with the strong external
ROE (%) 12.4 13.4 recovery, in which iron & steel and vehicles were the main drivers. On the other
EPS Growth (%) 46.7 17.7 hand, CPO export eased to 32.5% YoY from 117.4% due to weakening price,
EBITDA Growth (%) 44.2 6.7 while the coal export data has yet to be disclosed. Destination-wise, exports to
Earnings Yield (%) 5.6 6.6 China and the US were still the main contributors, each surging by 70% YoY and
56%.
* Aggregate of 73 companies in MS research universe,
representing 65.1%of JCI’s market capitalization
 On a quarterly basis, total exports surged by 55.9% YoY in 2Q21 from 17.2% in
1Q21, which was followed by a more diverse export structure (in terms of
destination and products). As a description, export was not only driven by China
(68.9% YoY in 2Q21), but also by significant improvement in exports to the US,
the EU, Japan, and South Korea. Consequently, the export-based
products/goods were also varied, sourced from commodity and manufacturing
products.
 Oil-driven imports. On the import side, it increased by 60.1% YoY in Jun-2021
(vs. our forecast at 51.4% YoY), owing to the significant increase in oil & gas
imports. The oil & gas import trend has picked up persistently since Mar-2021, as
it may have been affected by rising stockpile amid the domestic economic
recovery, followed by the future contingency plan, learning from the shutdown
experience of oil refineries four months ago. However, amid the recent mobility
restriction, oil import is expected to ease in the next two months. On the non-oil-
&-gas side, the capital goods import continued to pick up (43.4% YoY vs. 35.3%
YoY in May-2021).

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 On a quarterly basis, total imports increased by 50.2% YoY in 2Q21 from its bottom at -25.4% YoY in 3Q20, contributed by
all groups (consumer, raw materials, and capital goods). This is obviously aligned with the domestic economic
momentum, especially investment recovery.
 Our view: anticipating a divergence between export and import trends in 3Q21. All in all, based on the latest trade
result, we calculate the current account deficit (CAD) to reach around -0.5% of GDP in 2Q21 (vs. -0.34% in 1Q21). The
balance of payment data will be announced in the second week of August. Furthermore, the CAD is expected to remain
manageable ahead (preliminary forecast at -1.2% to -0.9% of GDP in 3Q21), as the export and import trends will likely
widen in 3Q21. In detail, export will remain solid on the back of the economic recovery of trading partners (especially
China, the US, and the EU), whereas import is expected to be benign during the domestic mobility restriction. Thus, the
exchange rate will be relatively stable and resilient in 3Q21, especially supported by a more diverse export structure.
Indeed, the portfolio volatility risk will persist, yet the risk is considered small, in our opinion, considering the foreign
ownership in rupiah government bonds has shrunk to 23% from 39% early last year.

TRADE SUMMARY
May-21 Jun-21
MS Forecast Market Consensus Actual
Exports (% YoY) 62.0 54.0 47.3 54.5
Imports (% YoY) 68.7 51.4 44.4 60.1
Trade balance (US$ mn) 2698 2209 2219 1316
Sources: CEIC, Bloomberg, Mandiri Sekuritas estimate

MONTHLY TRADE DATA DEVELOPMENT JUN-2021 EXPORT WAS DRIVEN BY COMMODITIES AND
MANUFACTURING GOODS
Trade performance Export by Sector (% YoY)
80 4,000
70 120
60 3,000 100
50 80
40 2,000 60
30 40
1,000 20
20
10 0
0
0 -20
-10 (1,000)
-40
-20 -60
Mar - 19

Mar - 20

Mar - 21
Dec - 19

Dec - 20
Oct - 19

Oct - 20
Aug - 19

Aug - 20

-30
Apr - 19

Apr - 20

Apr - 21
Jan - 19

Nov - 19

Jan - 20

Nov - 20

Jan - 21
Feb - 19

Sep - 19

Feb - 20

Sep - 20

Feb - 21
May - 19

May - 20

May - 21
Jun - 19

Jun - 20

Jun - 21
Jul - 19

Jul - 20

(2,000)
-40 Trade balance (USD mn)-RHS Export (yoy%) Import (yoy%)
-50 (3,000)
Oct-13

Oct-14

Oct-15

Oct-16

Oct-17

Oct-18

Oct-19

Oct-20
Feb-13

Feb-14

Feb-15

Feb-16

Feb-17

Feb-18

Feb-19

Feb-20

Feb-21
Jun-13

Jun-14

Jun-15

Jun-16

Jun-17

Jun-18

Jun-19

Jun-20

Jun-21

Agriculture Manufacturing Mining & Others

Source: CEIC Source: CEIC

JUN-2021 TRADE DETAILS

US$ mn Jun-21 MoM Contribution YoY Contribution
Total export 18,545 9.5% 9.5% 54.5% 54.5%
Oil & gas export 1,232 27.2% 1.6% 117.1% 5.5%
Crude oil 418 28.5% 0.5% 581.6% 3.0%
Oil products 196 63.3% 0.4% 26.8% 0.3%
Gas 618 18.2% 0.6% 75.9% 2.2%

Non-oil & gas export by commodity 17,313 8.4% 8.0% 51.3% 48.9%
Animal or vegetable oils/fats (CPO) 1,894 -24.2% -3.6% 32.5% 3.9%
Iron and Steel 1,992 32.3% 2.9% 181.2% 10.7%
Electrical machinery and equipments 1,008 15.9% 0.8% 44.2% 2.6%
Vehicles 735 42.2% 1.3% 132.3% 3.5%
Miscellaneous Chemical Products 499 -11.4% -0.4% 66.3% 1.7%
Footwear, Gaiters and the Like 491 33.0% 0.7% 27.5% 0.9%
Natural and cultured pearls, precious/semi precious stones 520 -2.5% -0.1% -8.4% -0.4%

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US$ mn Jun-21 MoM Contribution YoY Contribution

Ores, Slag, and Ash 575 35.3% 0.9% 89.0% 2.3%
Paper and Paperboard 337 -6.2% -0.1% -11.2% -0.4%
Pulp of wood 249 -4.1% -0.1% 28.7% 0.5%
Others 9,015 11.8% 5.6% 46.4% 23.8%

Non-oil & gas export by country 17,313 8.4% 8.0% 51.3% 48.9%
China 4,134 17.8% 3.7% 70.2% 14.2%
Japan 1,363 22.8% 1.5% 37.7% 3.1%
United States 2,136 21.3% 2.2% 55.6% 6.4%
India 684 -19.3% -1.0% -9.4% -0.6%
Singapore 689 16.5% 0.6% 13.7% 0.7%
Malaysia 852 -0.9% 0.0% 82.9% 3.2%
South Korea 723 43.9% 1.3% 83.7% 2.7%
Thailand 533 26.7% 0.7% 88.2% 2.1%
Taiwan 464 -2.0% -0.1% 112.0% 2.0%
Netherlands 378 7.4% 0.2% 66.0% 1.3%
Australia 238 -22.7% -0.4% 11.2% 0.2%
Germany 203 -1.9% 0.0% 6.9% 0.1%
Italy 221 -9.1% -0.1% 51.0% 0.6%
Others 4,696 -1.7% -0.5% 49.2% 12.9%

Total import 17,229 21.0% 21.0% 60.1% 60.1%

Oil & gas import 2,298 11.4% 1.7% 239.4% 15.1%
Crude oil 972 101.5% 3.4% 2605.3% 8.7%
Oil products 1,099 -14.3% -1.3% 142.7% 6.0%
Gas 227 -23.6% -0.5% 20.5% 0.4%
Non-oil & gas import by commodity 14,931.2 22.7% 19.4% 48.1% 45.1%
Machinery and mechanical appliances 2,296.7 28.3% 3.6% 34.7% 5.5%
Iron and Steel 1,136.4 29.3% 1.8% 200.7% 7.0%
Plastics and Articles Thereof 921.4 27.0% 1.4% 69.9% 3.5%
Residues and Waste From the Food Industries 327.9 -3.6% -0.1% 45.4% 1.0%
Cereals 433.7 80.0% 1.4% 85.1% 1.9%
Mineral fuels non oil & gas 202.6 -20.6% -0.4% 30.5% 0.4%
Natural and cultured pearls, precious/semi precious stones 266.6 153.0% 1.1% 82.5% 1.1%
Ores, Slag, and Ash 110.4 -53.5% -0.9% 75.4% 0.4%
Edible Fruits and Nuts 94.2 -32.7% -0.3% -21.0% -0.2%
Edible Vegetables and Certain Roots and Tubers 67.1 -29.9% -0.2% -57.5% -0.8%
Others 9,074.2 23.2% 12.0% 42.7% 25.3%

Consumption Goods 1,643 16.9% 1.7% 16.7% 2.2%

Raw Materials 13,040 19.2% 14.7% 72.1% 50.8%
Capital Goods 2,546 35.0% 4.6% 43.4% 7.2%
Source: BPS, CEIC, Mandiri Sekuritas

Leo Rinaldy(+6221 5296 9406) leo.rinaldy@mandirisek.co.id

Imanuel Reinaldo(+6221 5296 9651) imanuel.reinaldo@mandirisek.co.id

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SECTOR

Banking: 5M21 Results – YoY Turnaround But Looming Risks

 Banks in our coverage reported YoY net income growth turnaround in May-21, helped by low base factor and positive
monthly net profit trends in May-21. YTD stock performance, however, faltered due to rising concerns on macro
slowdown and higher credit risks due to extended economic lockdown in July 2021.

 Cumulative bank-only net income increased by 8.6% YoY in 5M21. Banks in our coverage (ex. ARTO) reported
combined bank-only net profit growth of 8.6% YoY in 5M21, vs. 1.8% net profit decline in 4M21. The profit growth
turnaround was attributable to low base factor in 5M20 and positive monthly earnings base in May-21. Indeed, banks in
our coverage (ex. ARTO) reported lower cumulative bank-only net profit of Rp4.33tn in May-21, vs. Rp6.93tn in Apr-21 and
Rp6.02tn in Mar-21. However, the cumulative bank-only net profit of Rp4.33tn in May-21 fared better than Rp1.34tn
cumulative bank-only net profit in May-20 when earnings impact from first pandemic-related lockdown began. On YoY
basis, all banks in our coverage, except BNLI, showed earnings growth turnaround or strong earnings rebound in May-21.
However, on MoM basis, only BBTN, BJBR, BNLI, BNGA and BTPS showed positive monthly net income growth.

 Cumulative PPOP grew by 24.4% YoY in 5M21. Banks in our coverage (ex. ARTO) showed PPOP growth acceleration,
up from 19.4% YoY in 4M21 to 24.4% YoY in 5M21. Top 5 highest YoY PPOP growth came from BBTN, PNBN, BJBR, BBRI,
and BNLI; the YoY PPOP growth strength was primarily attributable to cost of fund efficiency and non-interest income
recovery. Only BDMN and BJTM booked negative YoY PPOP growth in 5M21, mainly due to non-interest income drop and
opex spike.

 Cumulative loan growth of 1.1% YoY and 0.8% YTD in 5M21. Banks in our coverage (ex. ARTO) reported 1.1% YoY
cumulative loan growth and 0.8% YTD cumulative loan growth. On YoY basis, the strongest % growth rates came from
BNLI, BTPS, and BJTM, but the strongest absolute loan balance add came from BBRI, BBNI, and BBTN. On YTD basis, the
strongest % growth rates came from BTPS, BBRI, and BJTM, but the strongest absolute loan balance add came from BBRI,
BBNI, and BBTN.

 Cumulative deposit growth of 11.5% YoY but 1.9% YTD in 5M21. Banks in our coverage (ex. ARTO) reported 11.5%
YoY cumulative loan growth and 1.9% YTD cumulative loan growth. On YTD basis, the strongest % growth rates came
from BJBR, BJTM, and BNLI, but the strongest absolute loan balance add came from BBCA, BJBR, and BNLI.

 NIM inched up to 5.47% in 5M21. The strongest monthly NIM gain came from BTPS, BBRI, and BDMN in May-21. The
strongest monthly NIM erosion came from BJBR, BBNI, and BBCA in May-21.

 Provisioning expenses grew 60.7% YoY in 5M21. The strongest monthly provisioning expenses increase came from
BBRI, BBCA, and BDMN in May-21. The strongest monthly provisioning expenses decrease came from BJBR, BTPS, and
PNBN in May-21.

 Maintain Overweight. Banks in our coverage (ex. ARTO), on average, trade at 2.0x/1.9x P/B 2021F/2022F, with weighted
average stock performance (ex. ARTO) of -6.7% MoM and -11.2% YTD, vs. JCI’s -1.4% MoM and +0.6% YTD.

5M21 RESULTS SUMMARY – BANK ONLY

(Rpbn) BMRI BBRI BBCA BBNI BDMN PNBN BBTN BJBR BJTM BNLI BNGA BTPS
Net interest income 21,619 38,164 22,101 15,778 3,441 3,526 4,689 2,963 1,837 3,339 5,244 1,721
Non-interest income 10,574 12,617 7,483 6,475 1,312 942 804 570 218 760 1,938 9
Operating income 32,194 50,780 29,584 22,253 4,753 4,468 5,493 3,533 2,055 4,099 7,182 1,730
Provision expenses (6,586) (15,702) (6,351) (7,625) (1,341) (1,342) (947) (210) (194) (1,155) (1,772) (189)
Operating expenses (13,419) (22,832) (10,246) (9,010) (2,306) (1,724) (3,575) (2,360) (1,045) (2,151) (3,293) (708)
Operating profit 12,189 12,246 12,987 5,619 1,106 1,402 972 963 817 793 2,118 833
PPOP 18,775 27,948 19,338 13,243 2,448 2,744 1,918 1,173 1,011 1,948 3,890 1,022

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(Rpbn) BMRI BBRI BBCA BBNI BDMN PNBN BBTN BJBR BJTM BNLI BNGA BTPS
Pre-tax profit 12,195 12,219 13,040 5,614 1,115 1,403 963 956 801 810 2,178 829
Net profit 9,397 9,269 10,623 4,434 849 1,099 716 782 625 604 1,660 646
Est. consol. net profit 11,020 9,481 11,357 4,520 849 1,166 716 788 625 603 1,744 646

Gross loans 784,346 899,634 575,882 557,009 104,584 112,547 263,389 90,840 42,328 119,591 169,107 9,964
Total deposits 918,907 1,045,314 878,513 636,273 122,503 131,611 277,527 112,042 76,558 156,173 213,023 10,402

Source: Company, Mandiri Sekuritas Research

5M21 RESULTS AS % OF FY21 CONSENSUS – BANK ONLY

% Consensus FY21F BMRI BBRI BBCA BBNI BDMN PNBN BBTN BJBR BJTM BNLI BNGA BTPS Avg
Operating Income 34 42 38 40 26 37 41 40 42 44 41 40 38
Operating Profit 38 27 33 45 23 32 35 39 40 58 47 39 34
Pretax Profit 38 31 33 48 27 32 35 40 42 54 47 40 36
Net Profit 39 30 34 49 28 32 33 42 43 52 49 41 36
Est. consol. net profit 45 31 36 50 28 34 33 42 43 52 51 41 38
Results Comment Above Below Below Above Below Below Below In-line In-line Above Above In-line Below
Source: Bloomberg (for consensus net profit estimates), Company, Mandiri Sekuritas Research

5M21 GROWTH AND RATIOS – BANK ONLY

(Growth % YoY) BMRI BBRI BBCA BBNI BDMN PNBN BBTN BJBR BJTM BNLI BNGA BTPS Avg.
Net interest income 4.3 37.2 3.4 15.3 8.8 8.2 30.5 19.2 9.4 26.3 5.8 20.5 16.5
Non-interest income 2.4 10.6 (11.5) 22.1 (37.8) 91.8 11.8 17.9 (3.9) (15.2) (7.4) (27.1) 2.7
Operating income 3.7 29.5 (0.9) 17.2 (9.8) 19.1 27.4 19.0 7.8 15.8 1.9 20.1 12.6
Provision expenses 7.1 136.5 13.7 61.8 (3.6) 125.3 19.4 193.8 (41.3) 14.8 15.7 (27.5) 49.4
Operating expenses 6.2 18.0 (19.4) 10.3 (3.9) (5.2) 20.3 10.1 30.6 3.0 (7.2) 10.9 4.9
Operating profit (0.6) (7.4) 12.4 (7.9) (25.3) 4.9 77.0 27.8 5.1 78.0 7.5 53.7 2.0
PPOP 1.9 40.7 12.9 22.4 (14.8) 42.0 43.0 42.2 (8.7) 34.2 11.1 27.3 19.2
Pre-tax profit (0.6) (7.6) 12.9 (4.6) (21.8) 3.4 48.5 26.4 4.0 54.9 10.3 52.0 2.3
Net profit (2.1) 10.0 11.0 (6.8) (25.7) 3.2 39.0 27.4 2.7 218.6 8.9 59.6 5.9

Gross Loans (YoY) 3.3 4.1 (3.2) 3.1 (7.4) (9.8) 4.8 7.3 8.7 12.7 (8.7) 11.4 1.5
Total Deposits (YoY) 9.9 7.5 16.0 7.4 5.3 0.1 27.7 23.7 24.8 19.6 5.2 9.0 11.2
Gross Loans (YTD) 2.7 2.2 0.0 0.9 (4.6) (0.9) 1.3 2.0 2.0 1.4 (1.6) 4.6 1.2
Total Deposit (YTD) 0.9 (0.7) 5.1 0.6 (2.1) (3.5) (0.6) 12.5 11.8 7.2 2.5 6.4 1.7

Ratios (%)
CASA to Deposits 71.5 59.8 78.0 67.2 54.6 43.3 41.2 37.9 53.5 52.7 63.0 20.3 64.1
LDR 85.4 86.1 65.6 87.5 85.4 85.5 94.9 81.1 55.3 76.6 79.4 95.8 81.4
NIM 4.5 6.8 5.1 5.0 5.0 4.7 3.2 5.5 5.2 4.0 4.8 26.2 5.28
ROE 13.0 11.5 14.5 9.8 4.7 6.3 8.8 5.6 14.6 4.1 10.0 25.4 11.1
Cost to Income 41.7 45.0 34.6 40.5 48.5 38.6 65.1 66.8 50.8 52.5 45.8 40.9 43.2
Annualized CoC 2.0 4.2 2.6 3.3 3.1 2.9 0.9 0.6 1.1 2.3 2.5 4.6 2.8
Provisioning Level 7.6 8.5 5.7 8.6 4.9 5.1 5.0 2.0 3.8 7.3 7.7 6.7 7.1
Source: Company, Mandiri Sekuritas Research

Kresna Hutabarat (+6221 5296 9542) kresna.hutabarat@mandirisek.co.id

Silvony Gathrie (+6221 5296 9544) silvony.gathrie@mandirisek.co.id
Boby Chandra (+6221 5296 9533) boby.chandra@mandirisek.co.id

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Banking Data Apr-21: Loan Growth Slowed Down

 Industry loan growth weakened by 0.3% MoM in Apr-21, bringing YTD loan growth to flat. Monthly loan balance
reductions are particularly seen in manufacturing, financial intermediaries and utilities sectors. Deposit growth remained
strong, with CASA reaching 58.4% of total deposits in Apr-21. LDR touched new low again since 2013. NPL picked up to
3.22%, while NIM improved 2 bps MoM to 4.64%. Stay OW.
 Loan growth:
− -2.3% YoY (-0.3% MoM/+0.0% YTD) in Apr-21, better than -3.8% YoY (+1.4% MoM/+0.3% YTD) in Mar-21. Though,
monthly loan growth weakened in Apr-21, bringing YTD loan growth to flat.
− Adjusted for currency movement, loan growth declined by 1.6% YoY in Apr-21, slightly improved from- 2.1% in Mar-
21. Rupiah loans declined by 1.1% YoY in Apr-21 (-1.3% YoY in Mar-21), FX loans in IDR terms declined by 9.1%
YoY in Apr-21 (-16.2% YoY in Mar-21). FX loans in USD also declined by 4.7% YoY in Apr-21 (-5.9% in Mar-21).
− Based on bank classification, only BUKU IV (8 banks) saw positive growth, up by +7.0% YoY in Apr-21. Meanwhile,
BUKU III’s (25 banks) loan growth declined 16.9% YoY, and BUKU II’s (62 banks) by -7.0% in Apr-21. Sharia banks’ (12
banks) loan growth remained strong, up by 10.1% YoY in Apr-21, vs. +8.7% YoY in Mar-21.
− Based on usage, working capital loans posted the largest decline, down by 3.8% YoY, followed by investment
loans by -2.4% YoY. Consumption loans recorded positive growth of 0.3% YoY, ended the 5-months negative YoY
trend. On MoM basis, investment loans led the growth contraction in Apr-21.
− Of the large sectors with >5% loan exposure: transportation, warehousing and communication (5% exposure)
+11.1% YoY, homeownership/landed-house (9.3% exposure) +5.6% YoY, construction (6.8% exposure) +4.6% YoY,
and agriculture loans (7.1% exposure) +3.0% YoY. Meanwhile, manufacturing (16.1% exposure) continued its
declining trend, down by 4.9% YoY and wholesale and retail trade (17.2% exposure) by 3.1% YoY. We note that
monthly loan growth deterioration was mostly seen in: i) manufacturing sector, down 0.9% MoM/-Rp8tn MoM; ii)
financial intermediaries, down 1.7% MoM/-Rp4tn MoM; and iii) utilities sector, down 2.1% MoM/-Rp3tn MoM.
− On regional basis, Sulawesi had the highest loan growth pick up, increased by 3.4% YoY in Apr-21 vs. 1.5% YoY
in Mar-21, followed by Sumatra at +1.9% YoY in Apr-21 vs. +0.2% YoY in Mar-21, and Sulawesi at +5.6% YoY vs. 5.4%
in Mar-21. Meanwhile, loan growth in Java and Bali stayed weak, declined 4.1% YoY in Apr-21 vs. -5.4% YoY in Mar-21.
Loan growth in other parts of Indonesia grew by 6.0% in Apr-21 vs. +0.4% in Mar-21. On MoM basis, loan growth
decline was driven by Java and Bali (-Rp18tn MoM) and Sulawesi (-Rp1tn MoM) in Apr-21.
 Deposit growth:
− +10.9% YoY (-0.1% MoM/+2.0% YTD) in Apr-21 vs. +9.5% YoY (+2.4 MoM/+2.1% YTD) in Mar-21.
− Adjusting for rupiah depreciation, deposits grew by 11.7% YoY in Apr-21, higher than +11.5% in Mar-21. Rupiah
deposits grew by 11.2% YoY in Apr-21 vs. +10.7% YoY in Mar-21. FX deposits in IDR grew by 9.4% YoY in Apr-21 vs.
+2.8% YoY in Mar-21. In USD, FX deposits increased by 14.7% YoY in Apr-21 vs. +15.5% in Mar-21.
− Based on bank classification, deposits in BUKU IV banks had the strongest growth, up by 19.1% YoY, followed by
BUKU II at +11.9% YoY in Apr-21. Meanwhile, deposits in BUKU III banks declined by 3.3% YoY. Deposit growth in
sharia banks was at 12.8% YoY in Apr-21, improved from Mar-21 growth of 10.4% YoY.
− Based on type, CASA deposit growth remained strong, up by +14.2% YoY in Apr-21 vs. 12.4% in Mar-21. Current
accounts grew by +15.6% YoY and savings account by +13.0% YoY, while time deposits went up by +6.7% YoY in
Apr-21. We think that the strong CASA growth trend will continue as economic mobility has not returned to normal
yet.
 Liquidity: LDR touched new low, declined to 80.6% in Apr-21 (IDR LDR is at 80.8% and FX LDR at 79.5%) from 80.8% in
Mar-21. Note that this is the lowest LDR level since 2013. BUKU III banks’ LDR showed a slight improvement, up by 83bps
to 84.9% in Apr-21. Meanwhile, BUKU IV’s LDR declined to 80.2% from 80.5% and BUKU II’s to 74.7% from 75.8%.
Excluding BBCA, LDR in BUKU IV banks was at 83.8% in Apr-21, a tad increase from 83.7% in Mar-21. Also, sharia banks’
LDR declined to 76.8% in Apr-21 from 77.7% in Mar-21.

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 Asset quality:
− Industry NPL increased to 3.22% in Apr-21 from 3.17% in Mar-21 and 3.06% in Dec-20. Meanwhile, the special
mention loans (category 2) also increased to 5.51% in Apr-21 from 4.95% in Mar-21. In absolute terms, total NPL
increased by +8.7% YoY/+1.3% MoM/+5.2% YTD in Apr-21, while special mention loans declined by -24.8% YoY but
up 11.1% MoM/24.0% YTD in Apr-21.
− BUKU II bank’ NPL saw the largest deterioration, increased to 3.42% in Apr-21 from 3.30% in Apr-21, followed by
BUKU IV banks’ to 3.23% from 3.18% and BUKU III banks’ to 3.11% from 3.08%. NPF in sharia banks increased to 3.29%
in Apr-21 from 3.23% in Mar-21.
− NPL in working capital loans increased to 4.15% in Apr-21 from 4.09% in Mar-21, in investment loans to 3.07% in
Apr-21 from 3.01% in Mar-21, and in consumer loans to 1.89% in Apr-21 from 1.85% in Mar-21.
− Main industries’ NPL levels: All sectors showed NPL rate hike, except the manufacturing sector, which reported
declining NPL rate to 4.71% in Apr-21 (from 4.73% in Mar-21). Meanwhile, NPL rate in mining increased to 7.66% in
Apr-21 (from 7.51% in Mar-21), in accommodation and F&B to 6.04% in Apr-21 (from 5.99% in Mar-21), in wholesale &
retail trade to 4.58% in Apr-21 (from 4.52% in Mar-21) and in construction sector to 3.60% in Apr-21 (from 3.48% in
Mar-21). NPL rate in household loans also increased to 2.00% in Apr-21 from 1.95% in Mar-21, with NPL rate in
homeownership (landed house) declining to 2.57% in Apr-21 (2.58% in Mar-21), in shop house ownership to 5.07% in
Apr-21 (5.12% in Mar-21). NPL rate in vehicle ownership increased to 2.27% in Apr-21 (2.04% in Mar-21) while NPL
rate in apartment ownership stayed flat at 2.49%.
− Kalimantan posted the largest NPL pick up to 3.24% in Apr-21 from 3.11% in Mar-21, followed by Sulawesi to
2.82% in Apr-21 from 2.70% in Mar-21, in Java and Bali to 3.39% from 3.39% in Mar-21 and in Sumatra to 3.07% from
3.05%. Meanwhile, NPL rate in other parts of Indonesia also picked up to 1.30% from 1.27% in Mar-21.
− Loan-loss coverage ratio held up at 185% in Apr-21. BUKU IV banks had the highest coverage ratio at 230% in Apr-
21. Coverage ratio in BUKU III stood at 122% in Apr-21 (stable compared to Mar-21), in BUKU II at 108% (from 110% in
Mar-21). The coverage ratio in sharia banks increased to 117% from 113% in Mar-21. On YoY basis, loan-loss coverage
ratio in Apr-21 is 22 percentage points higher than the 163% in Apr-20 due to credit cost build up and the
implementation of IFRS 9 in early 2020. Especially, BUKU III banks’ is 14 percentage points higher on YoY basis, while
BUKU IV banks’ loan-loss coverage ratio is 5 percentage points higher compared to last year.
 Profitability:
− Industry NIM increased to 4.64% in Apr-21 from 4.62% in Mar-21 and from 4.57% in Apr-20. Improvement in NIM
MoM was attributed to reduction in CoF that offset the decline in asset yield.
− BUKU IV banks saw the highest NIM improvement to 5.21% in Apr-21 from 5.18% in Mar-21. NIM in BUKU III
increased to 3.49% from 3.48% in Mar-21 and in BUKU II to 4.51% from 4.50% from Mar-21.
− Interest rates across all loan types continue to decline. On average, lending rates have declined by 61 bps in the
past 12 months. On the deposit side, the average 1-M T/D rates declined by 198 bps over the past 12 months, in line
with lower benchmark rates and low LDR level.

 Capital: average CAR slightly improved to 24.2% in Apr-21 from 24.0% in Mar-21.
 Maintain Overweight on the banking sector.

OJK BANKING DATA SUMMARY

Apr-20 Jun-20 Sep-20 Dec-20 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21
Loan growth (% YoY) 5.7 1.5 0.1 (2.4) (2.1) (3.8) (2.3)
Loan growth (% YTD) (0.1) (1.2) (1.5) (2.4) (1.1) 0.3 0.0
Deposits growth (% YoY) 8.1 7.9 12.9 11.1 10.1 9.5 10.9
Deposits growth (% YTD) 2.2 4.4 10.9 11.1 (0.3) 2.1 2.0
LDR (%) 91.5 88.6 83.2 82.2 81.5 80.8 80.6
NPL (%) 2.89 3.11 3.14 3.06 3.21 3.17 3.22
Loan-loss coverage (%) 163 159 166 181 183 185 185
Special mention loans (%) 7.2 5.5 4.9 4.4 5.6 4.9 5.5

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 Equity Research | 16 July 2021

Apr-20 Jun-20 Sep-20 Dec-20 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21

NIM (%) 4.57 4.46 4.41 4.45 4.55 4.62 4.64
CAR (%) 22.1 22.5 23.5 23.9 24.5 24.0 24.2
Avg. Rp. lending rates (%):
Investment loans 9.5 9.30 9.06 8.88 8.77 8.73 8.7
Working capital loans 9.7 9.43 9.37 9.15 9.17 9.06 9.0
Consumer loans 11.3 11.20 11.10 10.97 10.94 10.91 10.9
Avg. Rp. deposit rates (%):
Demand deposit 2.25 2.20 2.07 1.91 1.89 1.85 1.80
Savings deposit 1.09 1.03 0.95 0.86 0.83 0.83 0.80
1-M T/D 5.65 5.49 4.90 4.22 3.88 3.74 3.68
3-M T/D 5.95 5.75 5.14 4.39 4.25 3.96 3.81
BI rate (%) 4.50 4.25 4.00 3.75 3.50 3.50 3.50
Inflation rate (% YoY) 2.67 1.96 1.42 1.68 1.38 1.37 1.42
Source: OJK, BPS, Mandiri Sekuritas

Kresna Hutabarat (+6221 5296 9542) kresna.hutabarat@mandirisek.co.id

Silvony Gathrie (+6221 5296 9544) silvony.gathrie@mandirisek.co.id
Boby Chandra (+6221 5296 9533) boby.chandra@mandirisek.co.id

CORPORATE

Bumi Serpong Damai: 2Q21 Presales - Continued Traction (BSDE; Rp920; Buy; TP: Rp1,630)

 BSDE saw IDR 2tn, -17% qoq, +87% yoy, in 2Q21 presales. Launches increased from 1Q21 and take-up rates remained
strong, while bulk land sales to a JV also took place. The achievement was robust and contributed to 1H21 presales
forming 65% of management’s FY target. Maintain Buy on BSDE.

 Solid traction as launches, JV land sale gained ground. BSDE’s IDR 2tn 2Q21 presales was a solid +87% yoy growth,
albeit falling -17% qoq due to seasonality. The company launched 3 clusters in 2Q21 – Myza, Aether and Myza
Cozmohouse which contributed IDR 547bn to total presales and were all sold out. Further, the company’s previously
announced JV with Mitbana Corporation also contributed to BSDE’s presales with 6ha of land sold over Phase 2 and Phase
3 of BSD City for a total of IDR 293bn, implying ASP of IDR 5mn psm. Note that the MoU agreement encompassed land
development of 100ha, however this is to be done in stages. BSDE targets IDR 1tn in land sales this year. BSD City inclusive
of Nava Park and Zora continued to be the main driver contributing 71% of total presales in 2Q21.

 1H21 presales at 65% of management’s FY target. 1H21 presales totalled IDR 4.5tn, +56$ yoy, and continued the trend
of positive traction towards achieving FY target at 65% of the company’s IDR 7tn FY target. Note that over the past 5
years, first semester presales comprised 45% of the full year’s, on average. We also note that project launches have
remained subdued with the company choosing to back-end its launch pipeline. The ongoing PPKM in 3Q21 should lead
to some delays in launches, however should not erode demand once launches resume. The company has also attempted
to launch projects virtually without requiring physical meet-ups with buyers up to the agreement stage.

 We have a Buy on BSDE.

IDRbn 1Q21 2Q21 2Q20 qoq yoy 1H21 1H20 yoy

Housing 1,709 1,309 589 -23.4% 122.3% 3,018 1,648 83.2%
Land 421 31 133 -92.7% -76.7% 452 657 -31.2%
Strata 81 222 122 173.1% 81.7% 304 199 52.8%
Shophouses 258 154 72 -40.4% 113.0% 411 205 100.5%
JV land - 334 181 #DIV/0! 84.5% 334 181 84.5%
Total 2,469 2,050 1,097 -17.0% 86.9% 4,519 2,890 56.4%
Source: Company

Robin Sutanto (+6221 5296 9572) robin.sutanto@mandirisek.co.id

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Indocement Jun-21: Strong Growth from Base Effect, Market Share Improvement (INTP; Rp10,375, Buy; TP: Rp14,500)

 The industry and INTP saw strong mom and yoy domestic sales growth in Jun-21. Industry domestic volume grew +13.8%
yoy notably helped by bulk sales growth of +21.5% yoy. INTP also booked solid sales volume growth of +8% yoy, raising
market share back above its comfort threshold at 25.5%. Sulawesi was a major growth area for both the industry and
INTP. We maintain Buy on INTP.

 Industry Jun-21: +13.8% yoy, +50.6% mom. Industry domestic sales saw strong increases in both bag and bulk sales at
+12.3% yoy and +21.5% yoy respectively, bringing Jun-21 domestic sales volume to 5.6mn tons, +13.8% yoy, and a strong
+50.6% mom from a low base due to the festive season. Ex-Java once again posted stronger growth compared to Java, at
+19.2% yoy compared to Java’s +9.5% yoy mainly helped by Sulawesi’s +60.8% yoy as infrastructure growth picks up
speed, and in East Indonesia at +26.6% yoy. Industry exports declined slightly mom and yoy, likely due to high bases as
volumes routed for exports picked up during festive months.

 INTP Jun-21: +8% yoy, +57.2% mom. INTP’s Jun-21 domestic sales volume of 1.4mn tons was also a solid +8% yoy
growth from the low base in Jun-20. All regions posted solid yoy growth other than East Indonesia and Nusa Tenggara. As
with the industry, INTP saw strongest growth in Sulawesi at +93% yoy, attributable to metal sector developments and the
company’s moving of a floating terminal to Southeast Sulawesi. According to management, INTP saw +61% yoy bulk
sales growth in Sulawesi in 6M21, even as its bulk sales growth overall had still declined -6.3% yoy over the period.

 Market share recovery. Jun-21 saw INTP’s market share climb back to 25.5%, higher than management’s internal
comfort level. This was a -1.4 ppt yoy decline, but a +1.1 ppt mom increase. Regionally, the company’s market share grew
in all regions except in Sulawesi and East Indonesia, on mom basis. In Java, its home market share in western Java
improved on mom and yoy terms, while its East Java market share recovered to 11% from May-21’s low of 9.9%. The fall in
market share the month prior seems to have been due to one-offs due to festivities as INTP’s larger markets are more
prone to seeing worker exoduses. Management flags that the current distancing measure (PPKM) is more stringent in
Java-Bali, the former being the largest cement market, and even though cement and construction are deemed essential
sectors, the limits to travel should nonetheless impinge on demand. Management however maintains its +5% FY growth
target at this stage.

 We have a Buy call on INTP.

INDUSTRY JUN-21 SALES VOLUME (‘000 TONS)

Indonesia domestic 6M21 6M20 Y/Y Jun-21 Jun-20 Y/Y May-21 M/M
Sumatra 6,348 5,976 6.2% 1,179 1,067 10.5% 792 48.8%
Kalimantan 1,845 1,781 3.6% 355 317 11.8% 245 44.8%
Sulawesi 2,894 2,249 28.7% 540 336 60.8% 458 18.0%
Nusa Tenggara & Bali 1,510 1,568 -3.7% 325 301 7.8% 203 60.1%
Eastern Indonesia 981 868 13.1% 185 146 26.6% 142 29.8%
Java 15,421 14,650 5.3% 2,967 2,709 9.5% 1,844 60.9%
Western 7,445 7,094 4.9% 1,401 1,288 8.8% 806 73.8%
Mid 4,433 3,890 14.0% 864 763 13.2% 624 38.5%
East 3,543 3,650 -2.9% 702 658 6.7% 414 69.5%
Total Domestic 29,000 27,092 7.0% 5,551 4,877 13.8% 3,685 50.6%

Exports 6,728 3,729 80.4% 1,032 1,129 -8.6% 1,100 -6.2%

Total Cement Sales 35,728 30,821 15.9% 6,583 6,006 9.6% 4,785 37.6%

Bag Sales 22,780 20,725 9.9% 4,363 3,885 12.3% 2,983 46.2%
Bulk Sales 6,220 6,324 -1.6% 1,188 978 21.5% 702 69.2%
Source: Company

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INTP JUN-21 SALES VOLUME (‘000 TONS)

INTP 6M21 6M20 Y/Y Jun-21 Jun-20 Y/Y May-21 M/M
Sumatra 830 750 10.7% 157 148 5.7% 96 63.5%
Kalimantan 411 355 15.8% 83 69 20.1% 52 57.6%
Sulawesi 258 159 61.7% 39 20 93.0% 51 -24.2%
Nusa Tenggara & Bali 549 564 -2.7% 110 118 -6.5% 63 75.7%
Eastern Indonesia 89 103 -13.6% 15 21 -26.5% 17 -7.1%
Java 5,292 5,142 2.9% 1,012 935 8.2% 622 62.8%
Western 3,398 3,324 2.2% 651 598 8.9% 371 75.2%
Mid 1,502 1,383 8.6% 284 263 8.0% 208 36.6%
East 395 432 -8.4% 77 73 5.7% 41 88.3%
Total Domestic 7,430 7,074 5.0% 1,415 1,311 8.0% 900 57.2%

Exports 196 39 402.1% 42 4 950.0% 45 -6.7%

Total Cement Sales 7,625 7,113 7.2% 1,457 1,317 10.7% 990 47.2%

Bag Sales 5,943 5,488 8.3% 1,127 1,050 7.4% 731 54.2%
Bulk Sales 1,487 1,587 -6.3% 288 261 10.3% 169 70.4%
Source: Company

Robin Sutanto (+6221 5296 9572) robin.sutanto@mandirisek.co.id

FROM THE PRESS

Banks continue to cut interest rate

Based on Bank Indonesia data, banking prime lending rate down by 177 bps since Apr-20 and now stood at 8.87% in Apr-21.
We see the this trend was transferred to each banks' lending rate, including Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI) and Bank Central
Asia (BBCA). Currently BBRI prime lending rate is at 8.25% (it has cut 75-150 bps). Management expects another 25 bps cut
considering weak household consumption and purchasing power. On a separate note, BBCA prime lending rate stood at
7.95% in Jun-21 for corporate credit, 8.2% for retail credit, 7.2% for mortgage credit and 5.96% for consumption non-
mortgage. (Kontan)

Bank Syariah Indonesia (BRIS) to support Hajj for young generation

BRIS is committed to improve its saving and deposit services for Hajj purpose namely BSI Tabungan Haji Indonesia and BSI
Tabungan Haji Muda Indonesia as it is designated (by Hajj Financial Management Agency (BPKH)) as the Hajj-deposit
receiving bank (BPS-BPIH) during 2021-2024. To note, until FY20, total funds for Hajj purpose collected in all Hajj-deposit
receiving bank has reached Rp 45.3tn. (Investor Daily)

Bank Neo Commerce (BBYB) to raise Rp 4tn

BBYB plans to conduct another 2 rights issue after previously completed its Penawaran Umum Terbatas (limited public
offering) through rights issue on 31 May-21 (successfully raised Rp 249.8bn). Each upcoming rights issue (one in 2H21 and
another one in 3Q21) seeks to raise Rp 1.5-2tn. (Bisnis Indonesia)

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COVID-19 INDONESIA

Daily Covid-19 Update: Data as of 15 Jul-21

 Testing: Daily specimens tested reached 249k, daily people tested reached 185k yesterday. Both all-time high.

 New cases: Indo booked new-high daily cases of 56,757 yesterday.

 Infection rate: Daily national infection rate reached 31% yesterday (3DMA 31%/7DMA 29%). Jakarta daily infection rate
reached 40% (3DMA 42%/7DMA 42%). Jakarta infection rate seems to hv peaked in the past week.

 Epicenters:
− Jakarta (+12,691)
− West Java (+11,101 - record high)
− East Java (+8,230 - record high)
− Central Java (+4,360)
− Banten (+3,994)
− Yogya (+2,706)
− East Kalimantan (+1,543)
− North Sumatra (+1,127 - record high)
− South Sumatra (+963 - record high)
− Riau (+961)
− Bali (+843 - record high)
− West Sumatra (+678)
− East NT (+639)
− Riau Islands (+625)

 Vaccine progress: Total vaccine administered yesterday was 917k doses (7DMA 851k). 39.63mn people (21.8% total
target) have received first shot, 15.81mn people (8.7% total target) have received second shot.

 From the press: Indonesia received 1.5mn doses of Moderna and 2.2mn doses of AstraZeneca vaccines from yesterday’s
and this morning’s shipments. In total, to date, Indo has received 141mn doses vaccine in bulk and finished forms from
various sources.

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Inggrid Gondoprastowo, CFA (+6221 5296 9450) inggridgondoprastowo@mandirisek.co.id

Adrian Joezer (+6221 5296 9415) adrian.joezer@mandirisek.co.id

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Indices and Fund Flows Currencies and Bonds Major Commodities

YTD Chg YTD YTD

Indices Last Chg (%) Currency Last Chg (%) Last Chg (%)
(%) Chg (%) Chg (%)

JCI 6,046.8 +1.1 +1.1 Rp/US$ 14,523 +0.31 -3.3 Crude Oil, WTI (US$/bl) 71.65 -2.0 +47.7
Dow Jones 34,987.0 +0.2 +14.3 US$/EUR 1.181 -0.21 +3.4 Copper (US$/mt) 9,487 +1.5 +22.2
Nikkei 28,279.1 -1.2 +3.0 YEN/US$ 109.83 -0.13 -6.0 Nickel (US$/mt) 18,768 +1.0 +13.0
Hang Seng 27,996.3 +0.8 +2.8 SGD/US$ 1.354 +0.07 -2.4 Gold (US$/oz) 1,829 +0.1 -3.6
STI 3,140.0 -0.4 +10.4 Tin 3-month (US$/mt) 33,130 +1.4 +63.0
Ishares indo 20.1 +0.8 -14.1 CPO futures (Ringgit/ton) 4,173 +3.8 +15.9
Coal (US$/ton) 146.0 +1.0 +81.4
Foreign YTD
YTD Gov. Bond Chg
Fund Flows Last Chg Last Chg Rubber forward (US¢/kg) 184.9 +0.0 -16.9
Chg Yield (bps)
(US$mn) (bps)
Soybean oil
Equity Flow +38.3 +1,251 5Yr 5.34 -1 +14 67.31 +1.0 +55.3
(US$/100gallons)
Bonds Flow -60.7 +612 10Yr 6.39 -4 +50 Baltic Dry Index 3,139.0 -3.0 +129.8

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 Equity Research | 16 July 2021

Equity Valuation
Price Price % of Mkt Cap Net Profit PER (x) P/BV (x) EV/EBITDA (x) EPS Growth Div.Yield
Code Rating (Rp) Target PT (Rp Bn) 2021 2022 2021 2022 2021 2022 2021 2022 2021 2022 2021 2022
MANSEK universe 6,047 6,850 13.3 4,212,458 235,711 277,472 17.8 15.3 2.1 2.0 13.1 12.3 46.7% 17.7% 2.7% 2.9%
Banking 1,851,028 87,743 113,942 21.0 16.5 2.3 2.1 N.A. N.A. 39.0% 29.9% 2.0% 2.4%
BBCA Buy 30,575 38,000 24.3 753,827 30,524 34,015 24.7 22.2 4.0 3.6 N.A. N.A. 12.5% 11.4% 1.9% 2.0%
BBNI Buy 4,720 8,000 69.5 88,022 9,021 15,727 9.7 5.6 0.7 0.7 N.A. N.A. 175.0% 74.3% 0.9% 2.6%
BBRI Buy 3,810 5,200 36.5 563,351 28,840 39,497 19.5 14.3 2.0 1.9 N.A. N.A. 28.2% 37.0% 3.1% 4.2%
BBTN Buy 1,285 2,200 71.2 13,608 2,153 2,660 6.3 5.1 0.7 0.6 N.A. N.A. 34.4% 23.5% 0.2% 0.0%
BDMN Buy 2,110 4,100 94.3 20,622 3,538 4,034 5.7 5.0 0.4 0.4 N.A. N.A. 71.5% 14.0% 3.5% 6.0%
BJBR Neutral 1,220 1,700 39.3 12,003 1,744 2,023 6.9 5.9 1.0 0.9 N.A. N.A. 11.3% 16.0% 8.0% 8.2%
BJTM Buy 695 900 29.5 10,427 1,557 1,810 6.7 5.8 1.0 0.9 N.A. N.A. 10.0% 16.3% 7.3% 7.5%
BNGA Buy 890 1,300 46.1 22,367 3,309 4,229 6.8 5.3 0.5 0.5 N.A. N.A. 44.6% 27.8% 4.1% 5.9%
BNLI Neutral 2,250 2,900 28.9 103,490 1,170 2,366 62.6 48.0 2.8 3.7 N.A. N.A. 10.5% 30.4% 0.0% 0.0%
PNBN Buy 740 1,400 89.2 17,820 3,405 3,829 5.2 4.7 0.5 0.4 N.A. N.A. 12.9% 12.4% 0.0% 0.0%
BTPS Buy 2,600 4,500 73.1 20,030 1,597 2,286 12.5 8.8 2.8 2.2 N.A. N.A. 87.3% 43.1% 1.1% 2.0%
BFIN Buy 830 475 (42.8) 12,420 841 1,196 14.8 10.4 1.7 1.5 N.A. N.A. 7.7% 42.3% 1.9% 2.4%
ARTO Buy 15,100 16,000 6.0 209,229 -103 58 -2,022.5 3,601.6 26.1 25.9 N.A. N.A. 57.2% N/M 0.0% 0.0%
AMOR Buy 3,430 4,400 28.3 3,811 107 188 35.5 20.3 13.1 12.7 27.4 15.5 28.1% 75.1% 2.7% 4.7%
Construction & materials 148,437 4,888 7,486 30.4 19.8 1.2 1.2 12.6 10.8 N/M 53.1% 1.2% 1.3%
INTP Buy 10,375 14,500 39.8 38,193 2,003 2,586 19.1 14.8 1.5 1.4 8.5 6.7 19.8% 29.1% 1.5% 1.8%
SMGR Buy 8,475 11,020 30.0 50,270 2,825 3,387 17.8 14.8 1.4 1.3 7.9 7.1 12.1% 19.9% 1.9% 2.0%
ADHI Neutral 660 890 34.8 2,350 93 234 25.3 10.0 0.4 0.4 8.1 7.1 288.0% 151.3% 0.2% 0.8%
PTPP Neutral 835 1,050 25.7 5,177 274 348 18.9 14.9 0.5 0.5 9.0 7.8 112.9% 26.9% 0.7% 1.6%
WIKA Neutral 975 1,100 12.8 8,736 282 470 30.9 18.6 0.6 0.6 13.6 11.1 52.0% 66.5% 0.6% 1.1%
WSKT Neutral 860 1,030 19.8 11,508 -1,261 -1,909 -9.1 -6.0 1.8 2.6 65.8 42.3 82.9% -51.4% 0.0% 0.0%
WTON Neutral 232 270 16.4 2,022 95 190 21.2 10.6 0.6 0.5 6.8 5.3 -25.6% 99.8% 1.9% 1.4%
WSBP Neutral 140 140 0.0 3,691 -510 -484 -7.2 -7.6 5.7 8.8 42.2 33.5 89.3% 5.1% 0.0% -6.9%
JSMR Buy 3,650 6,640 81.9 26,491 1,087 2,663 24.4 9.9 1.3 1.2 11.4 9.9 117.0% 145.0% 0.4% 0.8%
Consumer staples 720,809 40,737 47,446 17.7 15.2 3.5 3.2 11.3 10.3 -4.4% 16.5% 4.2% 4.2%
ICBP Buy 8,675 12,250 41.2 101,167 6,674 7,670 15.2 13.2 3.1 2.7 11.3 10.4 1.3% 14.9% 3.2% 3.3%
INDF Buy 6,675 9,800 46.8 58,606 5,558 6,207 10.5 9.4 1.3 1.2 7.3 7.1 -13.9% 11.7% 6.6% 5.7%
MYOR Buy 2,360 2,600 10.2 52,767 2,190 2,466 24.1 21.4 4.2 3.7 13.8 12.4 -9.2% 12.6% 1.7% 1.6%
UNVR Buy 5,150 7,150 38.8 196,473 6,871 7,725 28.6 25.4 43.3 37.2 20.0 18.3 -4.1% 12.4% 3.6% 3.5%
GGRM Buy 40,700 46,550 14.4 78,310 6,337 7,797 12.4 10.0 1.3 1.2 8.2 7.2 -17.1% 23.0% 4.9% 4.9%
HMSP Buy 1,115 1,750 57.0 129,695 8,189 9,964 15.8 13.0 4.4 4.1 10.6 8.9 -4.6% 21.7% 6.7% 6.4%
KLBF Buy 1,365 1,900 39.2 63,985 2,842 3,180 22.5 20.1 3.4 3.1 15.0 13.6 4.1% 11.9% 2.2% 2.5%
SIDO Buy 765 980 28.1 22,950 1,011 1,136 22.7 20.2 6.8 6.5 16.9 15.4 10.9% 12.4% 3.9% 4.3%
MLBI Buy 8,000 13,250 65.6 16,856 1,063 1,299 15.9 13.0 12.9 10.9 10.2 8.5 656.9% 22.1% 0.8% 6.3%
Healthcare 73,695 1,860 1,680 39.6 43.9 5.0 4.7 16.4 17.3 30.0% -9.7% 0.9% 0.8%
MIKA Buy 2,710 3,200 18.1 38,608 1,099 1,016 35.1 38.0 6.8 6.2 23.8 26.3 30.6% -7.6% 0.9% 1.2%
SILO Buy 10,500 9,000 (14.3) 17,071 225 218 75.9 78.4 2.9 2.8 11.2 10.8 93.5% -3.2% 1.3% 0.4%
HEAL Buy 6,050 6,500 7.4 18,017 536 446 33.6 40.4 6.0 5.3 13.8 15.2 13.3% -16.9% 0.4% 0.5%
Consumer discretionary 296,688 24,680 29,678 12.0 10.0 1.4 1.3 8.0 7.1 19.7% 20.2% 3.3% 3.6%
ACES Buy 1,465 1,750 19.5 25,125 779 1,027 32.2 24.5 4.6 4.3 21.7 16.9 6.3% 31.8% 2.2% 2.3%
LPPF Buy 2,180 2,000 (8.3) 5,725 224 839 25.6 6.8 7.1 3.5 6.5 2.8 N/M 274.6% 0.0% 0.0%
MAPA Buy 1,530 3,500 128.8 4,361 385 693 11.3 6.3 1.3 1.1 5.1 2.9 18405.2% 80.2% 0.0% 0.0%
MAPI Buy 635 1,157 82.1 10,541 605 1,023 17.4 10.3 1.8 1.5 5.2 3.7 N/M 69.1% 0.0% 1.1%
RALS Neutral 615 900 46.3 4,364 -41 148 -105.5 29.4 1.2 1.1 52.8 8.9 70.2% N/M 0.0% 0.0%
ERAA Buy 605 950 57.0 9,619 894 1,000 10.8 9.6 1.6 1.5 5.9 5.7 -70.8% 11.9% 3.3% 3.7%
ASII Buy 4,810 6,300 31.0 194,726 18,098 20,591 10.8 9.5 1.2 1.1 8.1 7.6 1.9% 13.8% 4.1% 4.2%
SCMA Neutral 2,170 2,000 (7.8) 30,174 1,341 1,515 22.5 19.9 4.9 4.2 15.3 13.5 12.8% 13.0% 1.8% 2.3%
MNCN Buy 815 2,000 145.4 10,090 2,266 2,639 4.5 3.8 0.7 0.6 3.3 2.8 20.3% 16.5% 3.4% 7.8%
PZZA Buy 650 750 15.4 1,964 130 202 15.1 9.7 1.4 1.3 5.8 4.6 N/M 55.5% -0.1% 3.3%

Please see important disclosure at the back of this report Page 14 of 16

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 Equity Research | 16 July 2021

Price Price % of Mkt Cap Net Profit PER (x) P/BV (x) EV/EBITDA (x) EPS Growth Div.Yield
Code Rating (Rp) Target PT (Rp Bn) 2021 2022 2021 2022 2021 2022 2021 2022 2021 2022 2021 2022
Commodities 351,766 28,085 29,497 12.5 11.9 1.5 1.4 5.3 4.9 137.1% 5.0% 3.2% 3.2%
UNTR Buy 19,225 28,500 48.2 71,712 9,476 9,814 7.6 7.3 1.1 1.0 2.7 2.2 57.8% 3.6% 4.0% 4.1%
ADRO* Buy 1,225 1,800 47.0 39,183 398 379 6.9 7.3 0.7 0.7 2.9 2.6 171.0% -4.7% 5.1% 4.8%
INDY* Buy 1,275 1,750 37.3 6,643 76 96 6.2 4.9 0.6 0.5 1.9 2.2 N/M 27.4% 4.0% 5.1%
ITMG* Buy 15,050 22,000 46.2 16,503 212 184 5.5 6.3 1.3 1.3 2.7 3.0 438.3% -13.6% 15.5% 13.4%
PTBA Buy 2,100 3,250 54.7 24,197 3,648 3,797 6.6 6.3 1.3 1.2 7.1 6.4 52.8% 4.1% 11.3% 11.8%
ANTM Buy 2,610 3,300 26.4 62,720 2,264 2,270 27.7 27.6 2.6 2.5 15.1 14.5 97.0% 0.3% 1.3% 1.3%
INCO* Neutral 5,225 3,800 (27.3) 51,917 127 164 28.8 22.4 1.7 1.6 9.6 8.0 53.4% 28.9% 0.0% 0.0%
TINS Sell 1,625 1,200 (26.1) 12,103 312 312 38.7 38.8 2.2 2.2 13.2 12.7 N/M -0.1% 0.9% 0.9%
MDKA* Buy 3,050 3,300 8.2 66,788 60 115 78.3 40.8 7.9 6.6 23.3 16.0 66.1% 92.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Property & Industrial Estate 97,148 8,127 8,705 12.0 11.2 0.8 0.7 8.2 7.9 105.3% 7.1% 2.0% 2.0%
ASRI Buy 157 250 59.2 3,085 485 524 6.4 5.9 0.3 0.3 7.2 6.6 N/M 8.0% 1.3% 1.3%
BSDE Buy 920 1,630 77.2 19,478 956 1,638 20.4 11.9 0.6 0.6 11.0 7.6 27.8% 71.2% 0.0% 0.0%
CTRA Buy 900 1,360 51.1 16,704 1,096 1,111 15.2 15.0 1.0 1.0 9.1 9.1 -17.0% 1.4% 1.3% 1.0%
SMRA Buy 770 960 24.7 11,109 604 682 18.4 16.3 1.3 1.3 10.2 9.8 43.8% 12.9% 0.6% 0.6%
JRPT Buy 460 750 63.0 6,325 917 891 6.9 7.1 0.8 0.7 5.9 5.9 -0.9% -2.8% 4.4% 4.3%
PWON Buy 410 680 65.9 19,745 2,046 2,320 9.6 8.5 1.2 1.1 7.4 6.5 101.5% 13.4% 1.5% 1.5%
LPKR Neutral 144 210 45.8 10,165 913 215 11.1 47.3 0.3 0.3 6.2 9.2 N/M -76.5% 0.7% 0.7%
DMAS Buy 194 300 54.6 9,350 988 1,158 9.5 8.1 1.6 1.6 9.0 7.4 11.7% 17.2% 10.8% 10.8%
BEST Neutral 123 130 5.7 1,187 122 167 9.7 7.1 0.3 0.2 8.7 7.8 14.2% 37.4% 0.8% 1.2%
Telecom 520,263 30,737 31,524 16.9 16.5 3.1 2.9 6.3 5.9 32.1% 2.6% 3.4% 3.4%
EXCL Buy 2,480 3,300 33.1 26,411 1,596 2,066 16.5 12.8 1.3 1.2 4.2 3.9 329.5% 29.5% 0.8% 1.3%
TLKM Buy 3,130 4,200 34.2 310,065 20,506 23,496 15.1 13.2 2.8 2.6 5.5 5.1 7.8% 14.6% 4.9% 4.9%
ISAT Buy 6,125 7,500 22.4 33,283 3,372 439 9.9 75.8 2.2 2.1 4.6 4.3 N/M -87.0% 0.0% 0.0%
LINK Buy 4,340 4,500 3.7 12,314 925 942 13.9 13.6 2.2 1.9 6.2 5.9 0.1% 1.8% 2.3% 2.3%
TBIG Buy 3,290 2,500 (24.0) 71,166 1,467 1,512 48.5 47.1 11.1 9.7 19.0 18.1 29.9% 3.1% 0.8% 0.8%
TOWR Buy 1,335 1,500 12.4 67,024 2,872 3,068 23.3 21.8 5.7 4.9 12.1 11.4 12.5% 6.8% 1.8% 1.8%
Transportation 2,765 6 217 484.5 12.7 0.5 0.5 7.0 4.9 N/M N/M 0.0% 1.6%
BIRD Buy 1,105 1,530 38.5 2,765 6 217 484.5 12.7 0.5 0.5 7.0 4.9 N/M 3703.9% 0.0% 1.6%
Poultry 125,617 7,683 5,626 16.3 22.3 3.0 2.8 9.8 12.0 62.8% -26.8% 1.7% 2.5%
CPIN Buy 6,400 7,500 17.2 104,947 4,610 3,757 22.8 27.9 4.0 3.8 14.7 16.9 20.0% -18.5% 1.8% 2.2%
JPFA Buy 1,630 2,700 65.6 19,114 2,778 1,672 6.9 11.4 1.4 1.4 4.6 6.1 203.0% -39.8% 1.4% 4.4%
MAIN Buy 695 1,125 61.9 1,556 296 198 5.3 7.9 0.6 0.6 4.4 4.5 N/M -33.1% 0.0% 2.5%
Oil and Gas 24,242 1,165 1,671 20.8 14.5 0.7 0.7 5.3 4.7 N/M 43.5% 0.0% 2.1%
PGAS* Buy 1,000 1,600 60.0 24,242 82 118 20.8 14.5 0.7 0.7 5.3 4.7 N/M 43.5% 0.0% 2.1%
Note:
- *) net profit in USD mn
- U/R means Under Review
- n/a means Not Available
- N/M means Not Meaningful
- N.A means Not Applicable

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RESEARCH
Adrian Joezer Head of Equity Research, Strategy, Consumer adrian.joezer@mandirisek.co.id +6221 5296 9415
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Ariyanto Kurniawan Automotive, Coal, Metal Mining, Chemical ariyanto.kurniawan@mandirisek.co.id +6221 5296 9682
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RETAIL SALES
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Aidil Idham Palembang aidil.idham@mandirisek.co.id 62711 319 900
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INVESTMENT RATINGS: Indicators of expected total return (price appreciation plus dividend yield) within the 12-month period from the date of the last
published report, are: Buy (15% or higher), Neutral (-15% to15%) and Sell (-15% or lower).

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