BOND VALUATION WITH

EMBEDDED OPTIONS
LATTICE MODEL
2
LATTICE METHOD
 A Lattice-based model is used to value derivatives, which are financial instruments
that derive their price from an underlying asset.
 Lattice model employs a binomial trees to show the different paths the price of an
underlying asset might take over the derivative’s life.
 A binomial tree plots out the possible values graphically that option prices can have
over different time periods.

3
EXAMPLE
4
 VALUING A PUTABLE BOND
Using the interest rate tree on the next slide, find the correct price for a three-year, annual pay putable bond with a
coupon rate of 8%. Assume par value is 100. The bond is putable at par at Time 1 and Time 2. The value of a similar
option-free bond is 105,693.
Given:
 Coupon Rate: 8%
 Par Value: 100
 Value of similar option free bond: 105.693

5
 TIME 0 TIME 1 TIME 2 TIME 3
0.5 100 + 100 + 8 10.0% $108 𝐶𝑉 = 𝑃𝑉 𝑥 𝐶%
=
1.07 108 𝐶𝑉 = 100 𝑥 8%
𝑣= 𝐶𝑉 = 8
0.5 100.935 + 103.756 + 8 7.0% 1.10
= 𝑣 = 98.18 𝑇3𝑣 = PV + CV
1.04
𝑣 = 100.935 = 100 + 8
= 108
4.0% 8.0% $108
𝑣 𝑜𝑓 𝑃𝑂 = 106.101 108
𝑣 𝑜𝑓 𝑂𝐹 = 105.693 𝑣=
1.08
𝑃𝑂𝑉 =0.408 5.0% 𝑣 = 100
𝑣 = 103.756
6.0% $108
0.5 100 + 100 + 8 108
= 𝑣=
1.05 1.06
𝑣 = 101.887

6
MONTE CARLO
7
MONTE CARLO
 Monte Carlo simulation is a model used to predict the probability of different
outcomes when the intervention of random variables is present.
 It helps to explain the impact of risk and uncertainty in prediction and forecasting
models.
 The basis of Monte Carlo simulation involves assigning multiple values to uncertain
variable to achieve multiple results and then to average the results to obtain an
estimate.

8
EXAMPLE
9
CRUDE OIL DAILY HISTORICAL PRICES
Date Open High Low Close Adj Close Volume
03/06/2020 36.86 38.18 35.88 37.29 37.29 494253
04/06/2020 36.76 37.62 36.38 37.41 37.41 307612
05/06/2020 37.33 39.68 37.05 39.55 39.55 396856
08/06/2020 39.41 40.44 37.96 38.19 38.19 416639
09/06/2020 38.22 39.1 37.07 38.94 38.94 396033
10/06/2020 38.5 39.91 37.73 39.6 39.6 385868
11/06/2020 39.09 39.09 35.41 36.34 36.34 513912
12/06/2020 36.26 36.99 34.48 36.26 36.26 406508
15/06/2020 36.03 37.26 34.36 37.12 37.12 387546
16/06/2020 37.05 39.06 36.38 38.38 38.38 366323
17/06/2020 37.93 38.75 37.21 37.96 37.96 239516
18/06/2020 37.74 38.97 37.11 38.84 38.84 113384
19/06/2020 38.85 40.49 38.4 39.75 39.75 64113
22/06/2020 39.18 40.7 39.12 40.46 40.46 315264
23/06/2020 40.68 41.63 39.76 40.37 40.37 368730
24/06/2020 39.99 40.54 37.31 38.01 38.01 499490
25/06/2020 38.05 39.23 37.08 38.72 38.72 451640
26/06/2020 39.09 39.35 37.79 38.49 38.49 356712
29/06/2020 37.96 39.89 37.5 39.7 39.7 343913
30/06/2020 39.64 40.08 38.85 39.27 39.27 370059
01/07/2020 39.84 40.58 39.05 39.82 39.82 407170
02/07/2020 39.78 40.74 39.46 40.65 40.65 347096
06/07/2020 40.38 41.08 39.84 40.63 40.63 373236
07/07/2020 40.68 40.95 39.9 40.62 40.62 256596
08/07/2020 40.48 41.08 40.3 40.9 40.9 286740
09/07/2020 40.87 40.99 39.27 39.62 39.62 367386
10/07/2020 39.58 40.77 38.54 40.55 40.55 393149
13/07/2020 40.35 40.72 39.47 40.1 40.1 370715
14/07/2020 39.6 40.57 39.07 40.29 40.29 426971
15/07/2020 40.55 41.26 40.08 41.2 41.2 352542
16/07/2020 40.97 41.18 40.52 40.75 40.75 200101
17/07/2020 40.72 40.9 40.02 40.59 40.59 88220
20/07/2020 40.64 40.91 39.83 40.81 40.81 60179
21/07/2020 40.65 42.4 40.64 41.96 41.96 389117
22/07/2020 41.54 42.03 41.14 41.9 41.9 333647
23/07/2020 41.95 42.36 40.83 41.07 41.07 389412
24/07/2020 41.06 41.67 40.66 41.29 41.29 353159
27/07/2020 41.26 41.82 40.48 41.6 41.6 377714
28/07/2020 41.65 41.93 40.85 41.04 41.04 276804
29/07/2020 41.13 41.57 40.93 41.27 41.27 295855
30/07/2020 41.32 41.39 38.72 39.92 39.92 487325
31/07/2020 40.34 40.55 39.66 40.27 40.27 318788

11
03/08/2020 40.39 41.24 39.58 41.01 41.01 338326
04/08/2020 40.78 42.08 40.14 41.7 41.7 451575
05/08/2020 41.56 43.52 41.47 42.19 42.19 491268
06/08/2020 42.19 42.65 41.61 41.95 41.95 359610
07/08/2020 41.97 42.22 41.06 41.22 41.22 398997
10/08/2020 41.5 42.33 41.17 41.94 41.94 367796
11/08/2020 41.98 42.94 41.48 41.61 41.61 432843
12/08/2020 41.62 42.9 41.53 42.67 42.67 397831
13/08/2020 42.57 42.84 42.09 42.24 42.24 329507
14/08/2020 42.33 42.57 41.62 42.01 42.01 310866
17/08/2020 42.24 42.97 41.8 42.89 42.89 208429
18/08/2020 42.79 42.99 42.11 42.89 42.89 111628
19/08/2020 42.6 43.03 42.36 42.93 42.93 81299
20/08/2020 42.74 42.79 41.5 42.58 42.58 377070
21/08/2020 42.75 42.96 41.46 42.34 42.34 345368
24/08/2020 42.48 42.89 42.23 42.62 42.62 294731
25/08/2020 42.36 43.57 42.31 43.35 43.35 330800
26/08/2020 43.39 43.78 43 43.39 43.39 262243
27/08/2020 43.45 43.5 42.36 43.04 43.04 320968
28/08/2020 42.98 43.42 42.69 42.97 42.97 272800
31/08/2020 42.91 43.57 42.56 42.61 42.61 236877

12
01/09/2020 42.83 43.43 42.72 42.76 42.76 285146
02/09/2020 43.02 43.21 41.23 41.51 41.51 421771
03/09/2020 41.63 41.79 40.22 41.37 41.37 417634
04/09/2020 41.25 41.87 39.35 39.77 39.77 444184
08/09/2020 39.48 39.59 36.13 36.76 36.76 720975
09/09/2020 36.79 38.45 36.16 38.05 38.05 455356
10/09/2020 37.8 38.18 36.93 37.3 37.3 367555
11/09/2020 37.01 37.82 36.67 37.33 37.33 363787
14/09/2020 37.32 37.68 36.82 37.26 37.26 347563
15/09/2020 37.28 38.57 37.06 38.28 38.28 348861
16/09/2020 38.35 40.34 38.35 40.16 40.16 367612
17/09/2020 40.19 41.22 39.42 40.97 40.97 280669
18/09/2020 40.97 41.49 40.3 41.11 41.11 85906
21/09/2020 40.98 41.27 38.66 39.31 39.31 66195
22/09/2020 39.63 40.02 39 39.6 39.6 287807
23/09/2020 39.76 40.75 39.26 39.93 39.93 318754
24/09/2020 39.6 40.37 39.12 40.31 40.31 269992
25/09/2020 40.15 40.64 39.71 40.25 40.25 229025
28/09/2020 40.07 40.8 39.78 40.6 40.6 226425
29/09/2020 40.58 40.7 38.41 39.29 39.29 379599
30/09/2020 39.16 40.37 38.68 40.22 40.22 340294

13
01/10/2020 39.9 40.47 37.61 38.72 38.72 443442
02/10/2020 38.6 38.65 36.63 37.05 37.05 391428
05/10/2020 37 39.72 37 39.22 39.22 378579
06/10/2020 39.35 40.86 39.1 40.67 40.67 400531
07/10/2020 39.83 40.35 39.28 39.95 39.95 433065
08/10/2020 39.99 41.33 39.76 41.19 41.19 409787
09/10/2020 41.31 41.47 40.38 40.6 40.6 331703
12/10/2020 40.4 40.45 39.04 39.43 39.43 322035
13/10/2020 39.53 40.53 39.35 40.2 40.2 375470
14/10/2020 40.19 41.16 39.82 41.04 41.04 328295
15/10/2020 41.13 41.29 39.22 40.96 40.96 248251
16/10/2020 40.88 41.05 40.08 40.88 40.88 96488
19/10/2020 40.69 41.22 40.54 40.83 40.83 75335
20/10/2020 40.65 41.7 40.25 41.46 41.46 360574
21/10/2020 41.22 41.59 39.78 40.03 40.03 366899
22/10/2020 40.04 41.02 39.71 40.64 40.64 307494
23/10/2020 40.61 40.92 39.57 39.85 39.85 268931
26/10/2020 39.69 39.74 38.28 38.56 38.56 360184
27/10/2020 38.59 39.83 38.51 39.57 39.57 339535
28/10/2020 38.97 39.01 36.97 37.39 37.39 489954
29/10/2020 37.39 37.76 34.92 36.17 36.17 568816
30/10/2020 36.07 36.6 35.21 35.79 35.79 388971

14
02/11/2020 35.24 37.15 33.64 36.81 36.81 489204
03/11/2020 37.03 38.32 36.57 37.66 37.66 410611
04/11/2020 38.15 39.25 37.26 39.15 39.15 437000
05/11/2020 39.17 39.35 38.27 38.79 38.79 298366
06/11/2020 38.54 38.61 37.06 37.14 37.14 411026
09/11/2020 37.34 41.33 37.16 40.29 40.29 622921
10/11/2020 39.91 41.84 39.41 41.36 41.36 457045
11/11/2020 41.79 43.06 41.32 41.45 41.45 443772
12/11/2020 41.47 42.19 40.87 41.12 41.12 401031
13/11/2020 40.94 40.94 40.06 40.13 40.13 338187
16/11/2020 40.17 42.09 40.15 41.34 41.34 378785
17/11/2020 41.44 41.69 40.57 41.43 41.43 243677
18/11/2020 41.35 42.46 41.08 41.82 41.82 107013
19/11/2020 41.61 41.98 41.08 41.74 41.74 88144
20/11/2020 41.7 42.32 41.51 42.15 42.15 276340
23/11/2020 42.46 43.36 42.29 43.06 43.06 300717
24/11/2020 42.84 45.2 42.82 44.91 44.91 418527
25/11/2020 44.82 46.26 44.73 45.71 45.71 417182
30/11/2020 45.34 45.8 44.42 45.34 45.34 370755

15
01/12/2020 45.08 45.7 44.12 44.55 44.55 314919
02/12/2020 44.38 45.92 43.92 45.28 45.28 368854
03/12/2020 44.99 45.84 44.66 45.64 45.64 350768
04/12/2020 45.64 46.68 45.61 46.26 46.26 335453
07/12/2020 46.15 46.54 45.36 45.76 45.76 348871
08/12/2020 45.66 45.93 45.14 45.6 45.6 332641
09/12/2020 45.6 46.24 44.95 45.52 45.52 434976
10/12/2020 45.69 47.74 45.52 46.78 46.78 447529
11/12/2020 46.97 47.29 46.34 46.57 46.57 367305
14/12/2020 46.73 47.44 45.69 46.99 46.99 403543
15/12/2020 46.99 47.73 46.54 47.62 47.62 311169
16/12/2020 47.6 47.94 47.17 47.82 47.82 275331
17/12/2020 47.85 48.59 47.81 48.36 48.36 96536
18/12/2020 48.43 49.28 48.1 49.1 49.1 83711
21/12/2020 48.54 48.61 46.18 47.74 47.74 478098
22/12/2020 47.93 47.96 46.6 47.02 47.02 295737
23/12/2020 46.79 48.5 46.16 48.12 48.12 344306
28/12/2020 48.23 48.96 47.5 47.62 47.62 238462
29/12/2020 47.72 48.35 47.68 48 48 213778
30/12/2020 48.13 48.66 47.61 48.4 48.4 266957
31/12/2020 48.35 48.58 47.77 48.52 48.52 181894

16
04/01/2021 48.4 49.83 47.18 47.62 47.62 528525
05/01/2021 47.38 50.2 47.24 49.93 49.93 643191
06/01/2021 49.82 50.94 49.48 50.63 50.63 509365
07/01/2021 50.53 51.28 50.39 50.83 50.83 369292
08/01/2021 50.93 52.75 50.81 52.24 52.24 499416
11/01/2021 52.58 52.7 51.5 52.25 52.25 394822
12/01/2021 52.18 53.45 52.07 53.21 53.21 400200
13/01/2021 53.31 53.93 52.58 52.91 52.91 429898
14/01/2021 52.84 53.75 52.24 53.57 53.57 390087
15/01/2021 53.8 53.83 51.83 52.36 52.36 165668
19/01/2021 52 53.13 51.76 52.98 52.98 125964
20/01/2021 53.13 53.79 53.05 53.24 53.24 400301
21/01/2021 52.93 53.41 52.75 53.13 53.13 352397
22/01/2021 53.1 53.16 51.44 52.27 52.27 437484
25/01/2021 52.17 52.95 51.82 52.77 52.77 349076
26/01/2021 52.91 53.25 52.29 52.61 52.61 314538
27/01/2021 52.76 53.3 51.85 52.85 52.85 442376
28/01/2021 52.65 53.58 52.04 52.34 52.34 411406
29/01/2021 52.15 53.25 51.93 52.2 52.2 410914

17
01/02/2021 51.99 53.74 51.64 53.55 53.55 416067
02/02/2021 53.48 55.26 53.45 54.76 54.76 463718
03/02/2021 55.05 56.33 54.81 55.69 55.69 448693
04/02/2021 55.96 56.58 55.3 56.23 56.23 381404
05/02/2021 56.46 57.29 56.43 56.85 56.85 400833
08/02/2021 57.06 58.14 57 57.97 57.97 399724
09/02/2021 58.11 58.62 57.27 58.36 58.36 514698
10/02/2021 58.45 58.91 58.08 58.68 58.68 457535
11/02/2021 58.4 58.71 57.84 58.24 58.24 380445
12/02/2021 57.94 59.82 57.41 59.47 59.47 480822
16/02/2021 59.98 60.95 59.33 60.05 60.05 602332
17/02/2021 60.24 61.73 59.43 61.14 61.14 335419
18/02/2021 61.68 62.26 59.79 60.52 60.52 132035
19/02/2021 60.2 60.29 58.59 59.24 59.24 102427
22/02/2021 58.88 61.84 58.82 61.49 61.49 505773
23/02/2021 62.16 63 60.67 61.67 61.67 570677
24/02/2021 61.29 63.51 60.97 63.22 63.22 489933
25/02/2021 63.39 63.81 62.65 63.53 63.53 510357
26/02/2021 63.46 63.57 61.34 61.5 61.5 472723

18
01/03/2021 61.95 62.92 59.96 60.64 60.64 456679
02/03/2021 60.23 61.21 59.38 59.75 59.75 464133
03/03/2021 59.55 61.99 59.24 61.28 61.28 465311
04/03/2021 61.08 64.86 60.52 63.83 63.83 694628
05/03/2021 64.16 66.42 63.82 66.09 66.09 573168
08/03/2021 66.68 67.98 64.57 65.05 65.05 533376
09/03/2021 64.73 65.98 63.63 64.01 64.01 554564
10/03/2021 63.84 64.96 63.13 64.44 64.44 498488
11/03/2021 64.7 66.21 64.54 66.02 66.02 441063
12/03/2021 65.96 66.24 65.41 65.61 65.61 321714
15/03/2021 65.56 66.4 64.13 65.39 65.39 378009
16/03/2021 65.33 65.43 63.8 64.8 64.8 317537
17/03/2021 64.75 65.34 63.6 64.6 64.6 254724
18/03/2021 64.42 64.82 58.2 60 60 143597
19/03/2021 59.56 61.72 58.94 61.42 61.42 84171
22/03/2021 61.55 61.9 60.39 61.55 61.55 404370
23/03/2021 61.28 61.35 57.25 57.76 57.76 712317
24/03/2021 57.4 61.34 57.29 61.18 61.18 566291
25/03/2021 60.8 60.86 57.44 58.56 58.56 580105
26/03/2021 58.48 61.36 58.32 60.97 60.97 471996
29/03/2021 60.93 61.77 59.41 61.56 61.56 449360
30/03/2021 61.96 62.27 59.94 60.55 60.55 388188
31/03/2021 60.45 61.17 58.85 59.16 59.16 414162

19
01/04/2021 59.49 61.75 58.86 61.45 61.45 605567
05/04/2021 61.5 61.5 57.63 58.65 58.65 438864
06/04/2021 58.8 60.9 58.62 59.33 59.33 457348
07/04/2021 59.26 60.04 58.12 59.77 59.77 475537
08/04/2021 59.52 59.93 58.82 59.6 59.6 419913
09/04/2021 59.76 59.95 59.1 59.32 59.32 351436
12/04/2021 59.35 60.77 58.73 59.7 59.7 410218
13/04/2021 59.64 60.59 59.64 60.18 60.18 349733
14/04/2021 60.44 63.44 60.38 63.15 63.15 419813
15/04/2021 62.83 63.57 62.53 63.46 63.46 243370
16/04/2021 63.32 63.88 62.83 63.13 63.13 87795
19/04/2021 62.98 63.63 62.63 63.38 63.38 74384
20/04/2021 63.47 64.25 61.5 62.44 62.44 476046
21/04/2021 62.39 62.56 60.86 61.35 61.35 431486
22/04/2021 61.11 61.87 60.61 61.43 61.43 344700
23/04/2021 61.65 62.43 61.25 62.14 62.14 345407
26/04/2021 62.06 62.31 60.66 61.91 61.91 366865
27/04/2021 61.97 63.3 61.91 62.94 62.94 361536
28/04/2021 63.04 64.53 62.67 63.86 63.86 387683
29/04/2021 63.7 65.47 63.65 65.01 65.01 384489
30/04/2021 64.88 64.95 63.08 63.58 63.58 400515

20
03/05/2021 63.64 64.68 62.91 64.49 64.49 285969
04/05/2021 64.53 66.19 64.29 65.69 65.69 370208
05/05/2021 66.45 66.76 64.92 65.63 65.63 460066
06/05/2021 65.27 65.98 64.5 64.71 64.71 389214
07/05/2021 64.9 65.24 63.9 64.9 64.9 431417
10/05/2021 65.57 65.75 63.95 64.92 64.92 448337
11/05/2021 64.9 65.5 63.68 65.28 65.28 514949
12/05/2021 65.46 66.63 64.97 66.08 66.08 508519
13/05/2021 65.75 65.81 63.09 63.82 63.82 547691
14/05/2021 63.83 65.62 63.33 65.37 65.37 383749
17/05/2021 65.5 66.43 64.83 66.27 66.27 268476
18/05/2021 66.33 67.01 64.11 65.49 65.49 167348
19/05/2021 65.28 65.35 61.95 63.36 63.36 101902
20/05/2021 63.39 63.96 61.89 62.05 62.05 524168
21/05/2021 61.89 64.07 61.56 63.58 63.58 530831
24/05/2021 63.87 66.14 63.63 66.05 66.05 466647
25/05/2021 66.02 66.51 65.41 66.07 66.07 497394
26/05/2021 66.04 66.43 65.25 66.21 66.21 376207
27/05/2021 66.16 66.92 65.47 66.85 66.85 337542
28/05/2021 66.95 67.52 66.17 66.32 66.32 390461
01/06/2021 66.68 68.87 66.41 67.72 67.72 570985
02/06/2021 67.99 69 67.78 68.83 68.83 570985
03/06/2021 68.91 68.96 68.79 68.82 68.82 1164

21
 Date Adj Close Periodic Daily Return 05/06/2021 64.71 -0.014117159
06/03/2021 68.82 -0.000145296 05/05/2021 65.63 -0.000913798
06/02/2021 68.83 0.016258139 05/04/2021 65.69 0.018436534
06/01/2021 67.72 0.020890046 05/03/2021 64.49 0.014211218
05/28/2021 66.32 -0.007959793 04/30/2021 63.58 -0.022242149
05/27/2021 66.85 0.009619795 04/29/2021 65.01 0.017847917
05/26/2021 66.21 0.002116723 04/28/2021 63.86 0.014511296
05/25/2021 66.07 0.000302755 04/27/2021 62.94 0.016500174
05/24/2021 66.05 0.038113075 04/26/2021 61.91 -0.003708186
05/21/2021 63.58 0.024358444 04/23/2021 62.14 0.011491589
05/20/2021 62.05 -0.020892236 04/22/2021 61.43 0.001303144
05/19/2021 63.36 -0.033064712 04/21/2021 61.35 -0.017610924
05/18/2021 65.49 -0.011839847 04/20/2021 62.44 -0.014942259
05/17/2021 66.27 0.013673868 04/19/2021 63.38 0.003952262
05/14/2021 65.37 0.023996817 04/16/2021 63.13 -0.005213694
05/13/2021 63.82 -0.034799508 04/15/2021 63.46 0.004896937
05/12/2021 66.08 0.012180419 04/14/2021 63.15 0.048172778
05/11/2021 65.28 0.005529968 04/13/2021 60.18 0.008008051
05/10/2021 64.92 0.000308119 04/12/2021 59.7 0.006385503
05/07/2021 64.9 0.002931875 04/09/2021 59.32 -0.004709057

22
04/08/2021 59.6 -0.002848289 03/10/2021 64.44 0.006695237
04/07/2021 59.77 0.007388783 03/09/2021 64.01 -0.016116884
04/06/2021 59.33 0.011527505 03/08/2021 65.05 -0.015861245
04/05/2021 58.65 -0.046636261 03/05/2021 66.09 0.03479415
04/01/2021 61.45 0.037978198 03/04/2021 63.83 0.040769774
03/31/2021 59.16 -0.023223832 03/03/2021 61.28 0.025284335
03/30/2021 60.55 -0.016542839 03/02/2021 59.75 -0.014785551
03/29/2021 61.56 0.009630369 03/01/2021 60.64 -0.014082433
03/26/2021 60.97 0.04033007 02/26/2021 61.5 -0.03247506
03/25/2021 58.56 -0.043768469 02/25/2021 63.53 0.004891528
03/24/2021 61.18 0.057523844 02/24/2021 63.22 0.024823118
03/23/2021 57.76 -0.063553358 02/23/2021 61.67 0.002923029
03/22/2021 61.55 0.002114338 02/22/2021 61.49 0.037277571
03/19/2021 61.42 0.023390953 02/19/2021 59.24 -0.0213769
03/18/2021 60 -0.073869849 02/18/2021 60.52 -0.010192428
03/17/2021 64.6 -0.003091193 02/17/2021 61.14 0.017988768
03/16/2021 64.8 -0.009063738 02/16/2021 60.05 0.009705565
03/15/2021 65.39 -0.003358782 02/12/2021 59.47 0.02089958
03/12/2021 65.61 -0.006229603 02/11/2021 58.24 -0.007526549
03/11/2021 66.02 0.024223168 02/10/2021 58.68 0.00546823

23
02/09/2021 58.36 0.006705088 01/11/2021 52.25 0.000191406
02/08/2021 57.97 0.019509415 01/08/2021 52.24 0.027361754
02/05/2021 56.85 0.010965798 01/07/2021 50.83 0.003942445
02/04/2021 56.23 0.009649825 01/06/2021 50.63 0.013922261
02/03/2021 55.69 0.016840597 01/05/2021 49.93 0.047369183
02/02/2021 54.76 0.022344204 01/04/2021 47.62 -0.018723243
02/01/2021 53.55 0.025533302 12/30/2020 48.52 0.00247627
01/29/2021 52.2 -0.002678402 12/29/2020 48.4 0.008298803
01/28/2021 52.34 -0.009696815 12/28/2020 48 0.00794817
01/27/2021 52.85 0.004551497 12/23/2020 47.62 -0.01044505
01/26/2021 52.61 -0.003036632 12/22/2020 48.12 0.023124848
01/25/2021 52.77 0.009520255 12/22/2020 47.02 -0.015196578
01/22/2021 52.27 -0.016319148 12/21/2020 47.74 -0.028089414
01/21/2021 53.13 -0.002068253 12/18/2020 49.1 0.015186009
01/20/2021 53.24 0.00489551 12/17/2020 48.36 0.011229064
01/19/2021 52.98 0.011771543 12/16/2020 47.82 0.004191121
01/15/2021 52.36 -0.022846269 12/15/2020 47.62 0.013318028
01/14/2021 53.57 0.012396853 12/14/2020 46.99 0.008978256
01/13/2021 52.91 -0.005653992 12/11/2020 46.57 -0.004499204
01/12/2021 53.21 0.018206458 12/10/2020 46.78 0.027303971

24
12/09/2020 45.52 -0.001755927 11/09/2020 40.29 0.081408743
12/08/2020 45.6 -0.003502631 11/06/2020 37.14 -0.043467926
12/07/2020 45.76 -0.01086731 11/05/2020 38.79 -0.009237941
12/04/2020 46.26 0.013493132 11/04/2020 39.15 0.038801899
12/03/2020 45.64 0.007919091 11/03/2020 37.66 0.022828976
12/02/2020 45.28 0.01625328 11/02/2020 36.81 0.028101023
12/01/2020 44.55 -0.017577491 10/30/2020 35.79 -0.010561521
11/30/2020 45.34 -0.008127447 10/29/2020 36.17 -0.033173243
11/25/2020 45.71 0.017656605 10/28/2020 37.39 -0.056667966
11/24/2020 44.91 0.042065995 10/27/2020 39.57 0.025855786
11/23/2020 43.06 0.021359807 10/26/2020 38.56 -0.032906935
11/20/2020 42.15 0.009774783 10/23/2020 39.85 -0.019630398
11/19/2020 41.74 -0.001914792 10/22/2020 40.64 0.01512363
11/18/2020 41.82 0.009369438 10/21/2020 40.03 -0.035099934
11/17/2020 41.43 0.002174702 10/20/2020 41.46 0.015312002
11/16/2020 41.34 0.02970637 10/19/2020 40.83 -0.001223841
11/13/2020 40.13 -0.024370437 10/16/2020 40.88 -0.001955035
11/12/2020 41.12 -0.00799326 10/15/2020 40.96 -0.00195122
11/11/2020 41.45 0.002173651 10/14/2020 41.04 0.020680205
11/10/2020 41.36 0.026210931 10/13/2020 40.2 0.019340048

25
10/12/2020 39.43 -0.029241119 09/14/2020 37.26 -0.001876928
10/09/2020 40.6 -0.014427442 09/11/2020 37.33 0.000803966
10/08/2020 41.19 0.030566836 09/10/2020 37.3 -0.019907758
10/07/2020 39.95 -0.017862048 09/09/2020 38.05 0.034490787
10/06/2020 40.67 0.036303899 09/08/2020 36.76 -0.078702562
10/05/2020 39.22 0.056918469 09/04/2020 39.77 -0.039443121
10/02/2020 37.05 -0.044087911 09/03/2020 41.37 -0.003378382
10/01/2020 38.72 -0.038008122 09/02/2020 41.51 -0.029668724
09/30/2020 40.22 0.023394351 09/01/2020 42.76 0.003514119
09/29/2020 39.29 -0.032798033 08/31/2020 42.61 -0.00841323
09/28/2020 40.6 0.008658063 08/28/2020 42.97 -0.001627718
09/25/2020 40.25 -0.001489573 08/27/2020 43.04 -0.008099084
09/24/2020 40.31 0.009471656 08/26/2020 43.39 0.000922297
09/23/2020 39.93 0.008298803 08/25/2020 43.35 0.016983077
09/22/2020 39.6 0.007350179 08/24/2020 42.62 0.006591361
09/21/2020 39.31 -0.044772461 08/21/2020 42.34 -0.005652394
09/18/2020 41.11 0.003411309 08/20/2020 42.58 -0.008186223
09/17/2020 40.97 0.019968616 08/19/2020 42.93 0.000932184
09/16/2020 40.16 0.047943909 08/18/2020 42.89 0
09/15/2020 38.28 0.027007201 08/17/2020 42.89 0.020731013

26
08/14/2020 42.01 -0.005459954 07/17/2020 40.59 -0.003934109
08/13/2020 42.24 -0.010128458 07/16/2020 40.75 -0.010982417
08/12/2020 42.67 0.025155574 07/15/2020 41.2 0.022334957
08/11/2020 41.61 -0.007899502 07/14/2020 40.29 0.004726965
08/10/2020 41.94 0.01731645 07/13/2020 40.1 -0.011159446
08/07/2020 41.22 -0.017554857 07/10/2020 40.55 0.023201739
08/06/2020 41.95 -0.005704793 07/09/2020 39.62 -0.031796022
08/05/2020 42.19 0.011682097 07/08/2020 40.9 0.006869532
08/04/2020 41.7 0.016685189 07/07/2020 40.619999 -0.000246203
08/03/2020 41.01 0.018209165 07/06/2020 40.630001 -0.000492101
07/31/2020 40.27 0.008729323 07/02/2020 40.65 0.020629537
07/30/2020 39.92 -0.033258392 07/01/2020 39.82 0.01390843
07/29/2020 41.27 0.005588643 06/30/2020 39.27 -0.010890344
07/28/2020 41.04 -0.013552966 06/29/2020 39.700001 0.030952694
07/27/2020 41.6 0.007479827 06/26/2020 38.490002 -0.005957769
07/24/2020 41.29 0.005342412 06/25/2020 38.720001 0.018507058
07/23/2020 41.07 -0.020007899 06/24/2020 38.009998 -0.06023768
07/22/2020 41.9 -0.001430957 06/23/2020 40.369999 -0.002226897
07/21/2020 41.96 0.027789634 06/22/2020 40.459999 0.017703966
07/20/2020 40.81 0.005405419 06/19/2020 39.75 0.023159198

27
 AVERAGE
0.016858543
06/18/2020 38.84 0.022917696
06/17/2020 37.959999 -0.011003569
06/16/2020 38.380001 0.033380636 VARIANCE
06/15/2020 37.119999 0.023440731
06/12/2020 36.259998 -0.002203913
0.052436659
06/11/2020 36.34 -0.085910005
06/10/2020 39.599998 0.016807093 STD DEV
06/09/2020 38.939999 0.019448299
06/08/2020 38.189999 -0.034991994
0.228990522
06/05/2020 39.549999 0.055627621
06/04/2020 37.41 0.003212854
06/03/2020 37.29 3.618725194
DRIFT
-0.00935979

28
POSIBLE FUTURE PRICE 94.26800458 501.4556012 356.7855803 312.4722929
66.05 67.64769168 473.8571466 304.1765829 235.5680281
66.07 70.81147015 579.2621918 301.6556908 205.0142458
66.21 141.6516005 673.5293385 415.3605844 187.4369965
66.85 154.8074589 779.7418049 320.3764057 230.0479844
66.32 178.5284871 838.1672094 406.180755 253.1066607
67.72 171.2815183 839.3320299 406.756483 357.195296
68.83 207.5527616 839.9114253 304.3705713 412.7054188
68.82 262.3359012 794.1165114 265.2730599 347.9244604
53.41466936 253.5851535 749.6910688 275.4429031 368.9111708
50.10899032 360.4920619 596.9013744 389.1353545 366.3396315
63.59286263 294.9679376 452.4832799 484.0761403 343.8304237
66.66102541 374.2802011 369.0421689 386.4929566 354.9783192
68.02368638 339.1361223 562.5994383 397.9564148 221.7999196
57.39216613 536.6982757 503.0081849 284.7015569 170.336488
83.75199239 735.8108251 542.0265799 279.0625308 166.4629043
76.26886477 716.0217424 506.995685 311.3392713 209.8136855
58.77345656 754.3412206 343.8400072 271.6724937 285.5071189
84.4083742 730.9273643 284.8212935 326.6952384 293.8918122
127.5846176 561.6129425 410.638892 514.3865046 315.4923356

29
294.4275332 86.2028773 73.72930178 25.81564645 103.5562729
251.0748816 82.40680215 53.3621326 34.15854436 121.6629932
403.8095485 66.07883386 57.96918238 32.04807175 161.7459754
358.380652 67.59412689 68.34443135 24.61230478 229.7467108
249.8196226 50.11461946 49.98300313 35.70891712 250.4071005
224.4987201 54.50983122 55.39821421 41.37621046 199.7010346
211.8096674 50.25694809 47.21305033 36.26844326 275.6828899
272.3639804 41.55016141 33.26792577 44.18476344 334.5624179
215.5445235 69.3996924 33.56870394 32.0229599 277.8959914
220.6475663 56.23053563 33.7051297 33.50907859 233.3972677
120.1494455 70.2974116 55.69056693 38.44658863 188.3560106
161.7536256 53.98335655 49.26522308 44.04895179 171.2142742
129.8648509 66.81128852 44.04720751 97.83538124 106.8852043
117.1071161 98.43128771 37.31199828 114.5003658 66.41630288
92.20115779 70.56812447 54.10511359 112.3745262 73.18222882
75.44089055 65.22621515 41.78939608 111.4709613 72.4889056
59.51379396 96.44376152 28.71041691 106.395327 61.82843672
68.39068311 98.18572119 31.28419565 101.9906436 57.70008076
54.14307549 83.17403667 27.12936795 102.3680943 61.3819592
86.70831063 71.72490212 22.39641669 104.578679 83.30975909

30
91.38069982 32.0581616
77.6782697 27.63384861
54.9864425 28.33804501
74.95729877 22.20268317 37.44470949
103.3849399 24.25936043 35.54735581
89.63654662 33.0604222 42.6247622
107.1985357 34.49808739 39.09987961
140.1123592 32.75291052 28.99035921
124.803459 41.20693109 26.26256928
112.9354327 49.03777946 24.53122115
80.69474807 56.77720455 23.93545356
78.57788561 45.97912246 24.08060048
48.49805168 43.01192574 32.64057016
56.12101416 23.28550924 38.82595066
63.22228266 21.04060072 22.75245058
73.20460636 32.17466895
43.93008167 30.30357089
72.74092051 34.00381073
39.21722109 31.91752525
31.30161563 29.8755804

31
32