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The 50 Big Ideas For 2018
The 50 Big Ideas For 2018
Chip Cutter
Managing editor at LinkedIn
If 2017 left you breathless, exhausted by unexpected headlines, then brace yourself. The coming
year may bring even more turbulent change, according to the CEOs, academics, economists and
other bold thinkers we consulted for our annual peek at the year ahead.
The last decade has seen the most expansionary fiscal policy in American history. What has
historically stopped governments from printing money willy-nilly is inflation, when the price of
groceries, gas, gadgets, books, bicycles and everything else under the sun shoots through the
roof. But that hasn’t happened in this century because other forces keep making stuff cheaper:
Amazon has made it easy for consumers to see when one product does the same thing as another
but for a lower price. Globalization has shifted manufacturing to wherever wages are lowest.
And robots are doing most of the work for free.
The only asset that is still made locally, by hand, with utterly unique characteristics, is a house.
And there, inflation is roaring: the price of that one asset has increased 35 percent in five years.
The Federal Reserve sets aside the cost of houses when deciding whether inflation is a problem
even though that cost is, for most Americans, the primary determinant of where we can afford to
live, and how much money we have left over to spend on everything else. The result has been
that printing presses run day and night, creating money much faster than we can create houses.
And because we made money cheap at the same time that we cut off credit to half of America,
one group of people has been able to buy houses, and the other group has had to rent them,
creating a landlord nation where the divide in assets is much wider even than the divide in
income. Cheap money, unevenly distributed, has resulted in expensive houses, unevenly
distributed. It’ll be a seller’s market for years to come.
It’s part of why we see more hospital groups — there’s an influx of mid-level providers that you
can pay less. “Medicine is going to change in terms of an employment sector and how much
people can make in the field,” says Powell.
25. Amazon becomes the filter for corporate strategy.
Corporate America's obsession with Amazon runs so deep that the company is mentioned more
in corporate earnings calls than even Trump, Bloomberg found. “The big business shift for 2018
in most sectors will be WWAD: What will Amazon do?,” says Focus Brand's Cole. “Amazon
and other large technologically-enabled marketplace disruptors will become the first filter for
strategy for traditional retail and service business models. While the shifts in how the consumer
searches, sees, orders and receives goods and services is already affecting legacy businesses,
next year will bear more of a corporate awakening where this impact is clearly seen in strategy,
acquisitions, investments and divestments.”
I’ve seen that party at other companies, and been lucky enough to be a part of something else
here at Redfin. What I’ve learned is first that an all-male group in power is by itself intimidating
and silencing to women. This is why men in such groups are so surprised by how their actions
affect women: there’s no one around to tell them.
But some of the most egregious offenders have known exactly what they were doing. This is
another lesson of the #MeToo movement: that whenever people can act with impunity, many
often do. The only real check on that is diversity, in gender but also in race and age, sexual
orientation, political affiliation and military service.
Just being around different types of people does more magic than any kind of lesson, book or
speech. And, especially for people in power, going just a few feet out of our way to make
someone feel welcome or to consider a different point of view can be transformative. I’ve seen
what happens when women are well-represented on our board and among our engineers and
executives: It encourages more women at Redfin to thrive, and it lets everyone at the company
hear perspectives we hadn’t before. It also helps us make more money.
34. Companies make open offices less miserable.
No one pines for a return of the dusty cubicle, but the proliferation of open offices has led to
unintended consequences: noisy spaces and eavesdropping colleagues. Watch for companies and
the office designers behind them to make changes, installing more “respite zones” and quiet,
noise-reducing areas to encourage deep thinking, predicts David Lathrop, director of applied
research for SteelCase. The most cutting-edge spaces will let employees work anywhere.
“Instead of having a workstation or office assigned to me, the entire office is mine,” Lathrop
says. “It’s designed as a playground that I can execute my own interests and desires.”
40. Your job — yes, you’ll still have one – will start to shift.
Lost in the hand-wringing discussions on the automation of work is this finer point: The bulk of
jobs won’t disappear, they’ll merely change, says James Manyika, chairman of the McKinsey
Global Institute. He puts what’s happening into three buckets: jobs lost (think cashiers); jobs
gained (robot repairers); and jobs changed (the rest of us). Get ready to see more of that change
starting next year. McKinsey predicts up to a third of Americans may need to switch occupations
entirely by 2030.
Redfin’s revenues have long been concentrated in a few large markets, but all that changed in
2017 with explosive growth in places like Denver, Detroit, Houston, Nashville, Pittsburgh and
Salt Lake City. Now in 2018, this great migration will reshape the country. Silicon Valley will
start to leave Silicon Valley, Wall Street will start to leave Wall Street.
Under investor pressure to limit stock-based compensation, technology companies will follow
Amazon’s lead to open major campuses in America’s forgotten places. Tax reform will shake up
the whole snow globe of American demographics, as the impact of high state and local taxes will
now be punitive for residents of most coastal cities.
As people move, America may become less polarized. In an economy where people can use
GitHub and Slack to work anywhere, where we fly in planes as casually as we used to drive in
cars, where services that were once restricted to Manhattan are now available on-demand in
Milwaukee, the physical divide between wealthy liberals and working-class conservatives can
only persist for so long. These separate charges, building up at either pole, will arc across the
gap.
43. The American mall will look more like a town square.
“The 1980s model of basically selling apparel and gifts doesn’t work,” says Underhill, the retail
consultant. So as U.S. malls struggle to revive themselves, expect them to further embrace
grocery stores, gyms, aerobics studios, apartments and services that convince consumers to make
more frequent visits. It’s not only about selling experiences but also merchandise. “Our digital
and physical experiences are indelibly intertwined: The pathway to purchase isn’t a straight line
anymore,” Underhill says.
— Ashley Peterson and Caroline Fairchild contributed reporting. Graphics by Jakee Zaccor.