Journal of Hazardous Materials 414 (2021) 125502

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Journal of Hazardous Materials

journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/jhazmat

Research Paper

Modelling the spatial and seasonal distribution, fate and transport of

floating plastics in tropical coastal waters
Xuneng Tong a, Mui-Choo Jong b, Jingjie Zhang b, c, d, *, Luhua You b, Karina Yew-Hoong Gin a, b, **
a
Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, National University of Singapore, 1 Enginneering Drive 2, Singapore 117576, Singapore
b
NUS Environmental Research Institute, National University of Singapore, 1 Create way, Create Tower, #15-02, Singapore 138602, Singapore
c
Shenzhen Municipal Engineering Lab of Environmental IoT Technologies, Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen 518055, China
d
Northeast Institute of Geography and Agroecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Changchun 130102, China

A R T I C L E I N F O A B S T R A C T

Editor: Dr. R Teresa A coupled high-resolution hydrodynamic-particle tracking model was developed to study the spatiotemporal
distribution and pathways of floating plastics in the coastal waters of equatorial Singapore. The coupled model
Keywords: was first calibrated and validated against the field measurements and then applied to explore impact of various
Hydrodynamics prevailing wind and hydrodynamic conditions on fate and transport of the plastics. The results highlighted that
Windage
the wind effect on the hydrodynamics is negligible, but it influences the transmissions of floating plastics
Plastic transport
significantly in the Singapore’s coastal waters. The spatial and seasonal hotspots of plastic waste were identified,
Particle tracking model
Climate change which were consistent with field observations when the windage ranged from 3% to 5%. A further evaluation of
the predicted trajectories showed that plastic wastes released from the land could be transported approximately
70 km seaward within 72 h when the windage was 5%. Furthermore, it was also found that the effects of climate
change and increasing plastic usage would aggravate plastic pollution and accelerate its transport. The estab­
lished model can provide new insights into the spatiotemporal distribution and fate of plastic waste in the
tropical coastal waters, which is useful to assist regulators in making policy decisions in response to the future
climate change and plastic usage.

1. Introduction
With the rapid development of the plastic industry since the 1950s,
global plastic production has increased exponentially to over 300
million tons annually (Europe, 2018). Consequently, increasing plastic
wastes have been generated because of the unabated demand for plastics
and their low recycling rate (Derraik, 2002). It was estimated that
approximately 250 million tons of mismanaged plastic waste was
transported from land to the ocean per year (Jambeck et al., 2015).
Marine plastics are ubiquitous, persistent and endangering important
marine ecosystems because of various adverse effects associated with
these pollutants (Rai et al., 2020; Thompson et al., 2009). This emerging
marine pollution problem has attracted heightened attention across the
scientific community and society because plastic pollution threatens
food safety and quality (Wang et al., 2021), human health and coastal
tourism (Galgani and Loiselle, 2021; Xanthos and Walker, 2017).
The majority of marine plastic sources are land-based and are mainly
transported from land to coastal waters by rivers (Cole et al., 2011;
Lebreton et al., 2017). Over 60% of the commonly encountered plastics
in the marine environment are floating plastics (Andrady, 2011), which
remain afloat on the surface water and potentially transported with
water flow to further locations within the tidal zone or even to remote
coastal regions (Lebreton et al., 2018; Lima et al., 2021). The foremost
thing to address relative to coastal plastic pollution problems is to know
where the plastics were originally released from, their pathways and
their destinations. Plastic pollution in the marine environment can be
surveyed by in-situ monitoring campaigns as conducted worldwide
(Hardesty et al., 2017; Li et al., 2016; Pojar et al., 2021). However, large
sampling area and the complex hydrodynamic environment in coastal
habitats can lead to high cost and time duration of surveillance tasks,

* Corresponding author at: NUS Environmental Research Institute, National University of Singapore, 1 Create way, Create Tower, #15-02, Singapore 138602,
Singapore.
** Corresponding author at: Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, National University of Singapore, 1 Enginneering Drive 2, Singapore 117576,
Singapore.
E-mail addresses: Jingjiez@nus.edu.sg, lakejz@gmail.com (J. Zhang), ceeginyh@nus.edu.sg (K.Y.-H. Gin).

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhazmat.2021.125502
Received 23 December 2020; Received in revised form 9 February 2021; Accepted 20 February 2021
Available online 3 March 2021
0304-3894/© 2021 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
X. Tong et al.
making it difficult to implement in a sustained way (Hardesty et al.,
2017). Alternatively, numerical modeling can be used to predict the
pathways and temporal distributions of plastic is a less resource
demanding way.
The marginal seas are the coastal transition zones that link rivers and
the open ocean, where an estimated 1.15–2.41 tons of plastic waste are
believed to be delivered annually from freshwaters to the ocean (Leb­
reton et al., 2017). Existing studies mainly focused on the modeling of
plastics distribution in the open ocean, primarily at a global scale (Cózar
et al., 2014; Isobe et al., 2019; Mountford and Morales Maqueda, 2019;
Van Sebille et al., 2020), and omitting pertinent pathways and distri­
bution patterns of plastic debris in coastal waters and/or neglecting the
regional scale (Zhang et al., 2020). However, global scale modeling may
lead to contradictory solutions compared with the regional model as the
former is mainly of low resolution and generalizes the different setups
(Liubartseva et al., 2018). Moreover, the transport of marine plastics is
controlled by ocean currents, waves and wind patterns, and these key
parameters would vary significantly at local scales in coastal waters,
thus affecting the distribution of plastics (Liubartseva et al., 2016; Van
Sebille et al., 2020).
In addition to the indirect influence by wind-induced currents
(Laxague et al., 2018), wind also imposes direct effects on the transport
of plastic debris by the force exerted on the surface above water
(Critchell et al., 2019; Zhang, 2017). The direct wind influence on
plastic movement on the water surface is also known as wind drift or
windage (Seo and Park, 2020). The combined influence from
wind-induced currents and windage almost certainly accelerates the
motion of plastic in the marine environment especially near the coast
(Zhang et al., 2020). Such modeling effort is crucial nonetheless,
considering that coastal waters greatly impact people’s lives. More than
half of the world’s population lives along the coastline (Creel, 2003);
thousands of local communities rely on coastal water for sustaining
livelihoods, mainly via fisheries, coastal farming and tourism. In the
South East Asia (SEA) scenario, such economic activities form an
important water-food nexus in many SEA nations which has driven
regional socioeconomic progress for many decades (Blancas and
El-Hifnawi, 2014; Pangare et al., 2014). Using high-resolution regional
models is therefore critical to accurately simulate the distribution and
pathways of plastics in coastal waters where plastic pollution is deteri­
orating local coastal water quality (Soto-Navarro et al., 2020).
The Southeast Asia region is one of the largest emitters of plastic
waste from the land to the ocean (Jambeck et al., 2015; Lebreton et al.,
2017), but there is a dearth of studies about plastic pollution in this
maritime region. Several SEA countries are large plastic producers,
while others are disproportionately affected by the impacts of marine
plastic debris on their shores. Singapore is an equatorial island nation
with coastal waters surrounded by Malaysian and Indonesian waters,
hence, potentially open to transboundary plastic influxes from its sur­
rounding sea. The complicated topography, seasonal monsoon and
strong tidal influence result in complex hydrodynamic conditions in this
region (Hasan et al., 2012; Xu and Chua, 2017). Furthermore, the United
nations has warned that plastic policy is lagging behind in the SEA re­
gion (UNEP, 2019). Compounding these complex processes is the effect
of multipronged factors such as emission sources, geographical charac­
teristics, seasonal dynamics, etc., with uncertainties which make the
modeling of plastic distributions and pathways in the coastal zone a
great challenge (Hardesty et al., 2017). Nevertheless, conducting the
numerical modeling of the fate and transport of plastic in such waters
would be a preemptive approach to further plastic pollution research
and assist in policy decision making.
The global and regional climate is changing due in no small part to
climate change. In general, wind speed around the land surface has
declined approximately 8% from 1980 to 2010 (McVicar et al., 2012;
Tian et al., 2019). However, the stilling reversed around 2010 and
subsequently, global wind speeds over land have recovered (Zeng et al.,
2019). The local historical wind data and trends corroborate with Zeng
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Journal of Hazardous Materials 414 (2021) 125502
et al. (2019)’s findings. In Singapore, the average wind speeds remained
stable and have not picked up much over the decades, but a small series
of strong wind was observed from 2010 onwards (Hon, 2019). Accord­
ing to the global climate model outlook, the percentage of increased
annual-mean wind speed values will range from 20% to 80% in the
global scale and 50% to 80% in the SEA area by 2050 (Eichelberger
et al., 2008). The global mean ocean circulation has accelerated with the
enhanced wind input, particularly the tropical ocean circulation (Hu
et al., 2020). In parallel, the increasing demand of plastic goods, hence
its production, was estimated to increase by 2050 to more than three
folds as much plastic goods as produced in 2014 (Foundation, 2016).
Given the hypothesized relationship between windage and floating
plastics movement, the combined effect of climate change and
increasing floating plastic wastes resulting from rising plastic usage on
Singapore coastal waters warrants further investigation.
In the present study, we developed a framework based on a coupled
hydrodynamic-particle tracking model to provide the first insights of
seasonal floating plastic distribution and pathways in the surrounding
coastal waters of Singapore. The study emphasized the influence of
hydrodynamic conditions (e.g. tide, wind-induced currents) and wind
drift on the transport of floating plastic. The modelled results were
compared with the observation data from International Coastal Cleanup
Singapore to explore the determined parameters of plastic transport in
this area. In addition, the response of plastic distribution to the climate
change and increasing plastic trend were also explored.
2. Materials and methods
2.1. Study area
Singapore is surrounded by the Johor Straits in the north and the
Singapore Straits in the south (see Fig. 1). The region exhibits complex
hydrodynamic conditions that are highly influenced by complicated
topography, seasonal monsoons and strong tides (Xu and Chua, 2016).
The climate of Singapore is characterized by two typical monsoon sea­
sons which are separated by two internal seasons (Gin et al., 2001). The
Northeast (NE) Monsoon occurs from December and March and follows
by the first inter-monsoon period (April to May). The Southwest (SW)
Monsoon is from June to October, followed by the second inter-monsoon
period (October to November). The wind blows from the north east
during the NE Monsoon, and south east in the SW Monsoon. The wind
rose map during the simulated period is shown in Fig. S1.
2.2. Model setup and description
2.2.1. Hydrodynamic model
The 3D numerical barotropic hydrodynamic model (free surface
gradients) with averaged 10 vertical layers was performed with the Delft
3D flow module (Hydraulics, 2006), simulating the hydrodynamic
conditions which were driven by the tidal and meteorological forcing in
the Singapore coastal waters. The water current was determined by the
numerical solution of three-dimensional incompressible Reynolds
averaged Navier-Stokes equations invoking the assumptions of Boussi­
nesq and hydrostatic pressure:
∂u ∂v ∂w
+ + =0 (1)
∂x ∂y ∂z
The u and v momentum equations are as follows:
( 2 )
∂u ∂u ∂u ∂u ∂η ∂ u ∂2 u ∂ ∂u
+ u + v + w = − g + vh + 2 + (vV ) (2)
∂t ∂x ∂y ∂z ∂x ∂x 2 ∂y ∂z ∂z
( )
∂v ∂v ∂v ∂v ∂η ∂2 v ∂2 v ∂ ∂v
+ u + v + w = − g + vh + + (vV ) (3)
∂t ∂x ∂y ∂z ∂y ∂x2 ∂y2 ∂z ∂z
The vertical momentum equation was reduced to the hydrostatic
X. Tong et al.
Fig. 1. An overview of study area showing geographic locations of riverine discharge points and tidal stations.
pressure assumption:
∂p
= − ρg
∂z
In Eqs. (1–4), t is the time; x, y, and z are the Cartesian coordinates; u,
v, w are the velocity components in the x, y, and z direction; g is the
gravitational acceleration; η is the water level; vh and vV are the kine­
matic eddy viscosity coefficients in the horizontal and vertical di­
rections, respectively.
The land boundaries and bathymetry data were mainly obtained
from the Singapore Electronic Navigational Chart (ENC) and were also
combined with the global database: Global Self-consistent, Hierarchical,
High-resolution Geography (GSHHG) and General Bathymetric Chart of
the Oceans (GEBCO). The model was set with a high grid resolution of
around 200–210 m. The four open boundaries located at the east, west,
southeast, and southwest part of the region were forced by eight main
tidal constituents (Q1, O1, P1, K1, N2, M2, S2, and K2). The hourly
meteorological data (e.g. wind, air temperature, solar radiation, relative
humidity, and cloudiness) was extracted from the geography weather
station at the National University of Singapore. The horizontal and
vertical eddy viscosities used in this study were 1.0 and 0.0001 m2/s,
respectively, as suggested by Hasan et al. (2012).
In addition, model results were calibrated and validated against the
field data (water level) and compared with the TPXO 7.2 Global Inverse
Tide Model in water surface elevation constituents. Five tidal stations
covering most of the study area were chosen for the comparison. To
evaluate the model performance, the following statistical metrics were
used: mean error (ME), root-mean-square error (RMSE), correlation
coefficients (r), and the skill score (SS):
1∑
ME = (XModel − XField )
N
Journal of Hazardous Materials 414 (2021) 125502
√̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅
∑
(XModel − XField )2
RMSE = (6)
(4) N
∑
(XModel − XModel )(XField − XField )
r = √̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅
∑ ∑
̅ (7)
(XModel − XModel )2 (XField − XField )2
∑
(XModel − XField )2
SS = 1 − ∑ (8)
(XField − XFiled )2
Where XModel and XField is the modeled and observed water level,
respectively; N is the number of evaluated elements; XModel and XField is
the mean water level for model results and observation. The Skill Scores
(SS) method is determined by the normalized root-mean-square error
and the standard deviation of the observation, and the class of the model
performance was classified as: SS > 0.65 excellent simulation; 0.5–0.65
very good; 0.2–0.5 good; < 0.2 poor (Allen et al., 2007).
2.2.2. Transport of particles
The transport of floating plastic is determined by ocean currents and
wind in the coastal waters (Yoon et al., 2010). A random walk particle
tracking model that the movement of the particles consists two steps. For
each time-step, the first step is the advection step which is determined by
the shear stresses from currents (bottom) and wind (surface). The second
step is the random walk step where the direction and size of the
movement is a random process but is related to the dispersion (Hy­
draulics, 2007). The advective velocities from the hydrodynamic model
were interpolated in space and time to the position of the particles:
(9)
′
Xi (t + ∆t) = Xi (t) + ua (Xi , t)∆t + ∆X (t)
(5)
ua (Xi , t) = vf (Xi , t) + Cwd vwd (Xi , t) (10)
3
X. Tong et al.
In which where ∆t represents the Lagrangian time step and Xi (t) is
the particle position at the current time step. ua is the advective velocity
which is calculated as the combination of currents (vf ), winds velocities
(vwd ) and wind transport coefficient (Cwd ).
2.3. Plastic particles from rivers
Jambeck et al. (2015) estimated the mass of land-based plastic waste
entering the ocean by linking the solid waste, population density, and
economic status of the individual region. According to their estimated
results and method, the annual input of the plastic to the ocean is
approximately 1500 tons (Singapore), 8400 tons (Johor Bahru,
Malaysia), and 5100 tons (Batam, Indonesia), respectively. Plastic litter
with a terrestrial source contributes about 80% of the plastics found in
marine litter (Andrady, 2011). The ratio of global river inputs to other
land sources is approximately 1.0 (50%:50%), as suggested earlier by
Lebreton et al. (2012). It was found that plastic waste was mainly
transported from land to the ocean by river discharges (Cole et al., 2011;
Lebreton et al., 2017). Lebreton et al. (2017) also reported that the top
20 polluting rivers, mostly located in Asia, account for 67% of the global
total. Therefore, we assumed 60% of plastic waste was transported by
rivers to the ocean in this study. In addition, it is noted that floating
plastic (density is smaller than seawater) is assumed to account for about
64% of the plastic demand globally (Table S1). The observed plastic data
we used in this study were collated from the International Coastal
Cleanup Singapore (ICCS), where the average size of plastic waste
collected from the beaches were above micro-level. Therefore, for the
plastic input, we only considered the macro-plastics (i.e. the diameter is
larger than 25 mm). The weight of plastic pollution globally was esti­
mated to comprise 75.4% macro-plastics (Eriksen et al., 2014). To
summarize, approximately 434.3 tons (Singapore), 2432.1 tons (Johor),
and 1476.6 tons (Batam) of floating macro-plastics were released from
the land to the ocean via river discharges. The floating plastics were
assumed to be continuously released from each river mouth, as shown in
Fig. 1.
2.4. Numerical experiment settings
We emphasized that wind not only has an indirect influence (wind-
induced currents) but also a direct effect (windage) on the floating
plastic transport in the marine environment. In this study, varying
windage in stepwise incremental percentages, i.e., 0%, 1%, 3%, and 5%
was used to investigate and quantify the effect of windage on plastic
transport during different monsoon seasons. We also explored the effect
of windage on the plastic pathways where the particles were released
from Singapore and Batam. In addition, we assumed that by 2050, the
wind speed would increase 1.5 times according to Eichelberger et al.
(2008), and the plastic input would increase 3 times based on Founda­
tion (2016)’s estimation, to investigate the plastic distribution under the
effects of climate change and projected trends in plastic consumption.
3. Results and discussion
3.1. Hydrodynamics conditions in the Singapore coastal waters
Plastic transport is highly influenced by the circulation dynamics in
the marine environment (Van Sebille et al., 2020; Zhang, 2017). The
first step in simulating the pathways of plastic movement in coastal
waters is to establish an accurate hydrodynamic model. To calibrate and
validate the established hydrodynamic model, the model results (water
level) were compared with field data from five tidal stations during 7–21
March 2013 (Fig. S2). The statistical evaluation of the model results is
summarized in Table S2. At all stations, the MEs are around 0.13 m, r
values are above 93%, skill scorers exceed 0.92, RMSEs for meter unit,
and percentage are around 0.16 m or 5.6%. The major semidiurnal (M2,
S2) and diurnal (K1, O1) tidal constitutes were chosen to compare with
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Journal of Hazardous Materials 414 (2021) 125502
data from the TPXO 7.2 Global Inverse Tide Model (Table S3). The
amplitude errors of all the tidal constitutes are smaller than 0.002 m and
the phase errors are around 0.2◦ . In addition, model performance was
also compared with the previous studies in this area (Hasan et al., 2012;
Xu and Chua, 2016). After comparison with the field data, global model
and previous studies, the performance of the established hydrodynamic
model is satisfactory for the accurate simulation of the hydrodynamic
conditions of this area.
As the movement of the floating plastic only occurs on the water
surface (Liubartseva et al., 2018), therefore, the circulation patterns of
the sea surface layer in the four monsoon seasons were chosen. The
strong currents with an average magnitude of around 0.5 m/s originated
from the southwest boundary, with a small proportion of the flow
directed to the west and most of it directed to the east, which explains
the eastward flows observed in the Singapore Strait. The eastward cur­
rents will subsequently weaken and turn southward around the south­
east open boundary and westward around the east open boundary. From
the modelled results, no significant difference in circulation patterns
was observed under each monsoon season (Fig. S3). Although
wind-driven currents are considered as the dominant component in open
ocean hydrodynamics, such as the South China sea, the effect of wind on
the currents in the coastal waters of Singapore is relatively small
compared with tidal forcing (Chan et al., 2006). A prevoius study
investigated the effect of tidal forcing, eddy and wind on the circulation
patterns separately in the coastal waters and found that the tidal
component is predominant while eddy and wind are less important in
this area (Chen et al., 2010). Nonetheless, the study emphasized that
wind may be influential towards the transport of floating materials
which warrants further investigations.
3.2. Plastic distribution in the Singapore coastal waters
After validating the hydrodynamic model, the particle tracking
simulation was conducted based on the derived circulation patterns.
From the preceding hydrodynamic results, there is a negligible differ­
ence in circulation patterns between each monsoon season. Herein, the
hourly wind data was used to support the quantification of the windage
effect on plastic transport during each monsoon season, and different
windage percentages (0%, 1%, 3%, and 5%) were tested to simulate the
transport. Finally, the distribution of floating plastic in the coastal wa­
ters of Singapore was mapped.
In Fig. 2, the seasonal distribution of plastics in the study area is
presented for windages of 0%, 1%, 3%, and 5%, respectively. The spatial
distribution of the floating particles under different windage effect is
very different. When the windage was not included in the model
(Fig. 2A), the hotspots of the floating plastic are very similar for each
monsoon season. The hotspots are found around Batam island, Johor
strait and the tributary of Johor river with the highest level reaching
over 3.5 g/m2. Compared with other regions, the plastic concentration
in the southern part of Singapore is much lower than that in other re­
gions. However, when the windage was included, the distribution pat­
terns of the floating particles are much different from the non-windage
case and exhibit temporal changes through the simulated period.
(Fig. 2B–D). The model results indicate that the hotspots are distributed
along the northern coastline of Singapore and around Batam Island
during the NE Monsoon season, while in the SW Monsoon season, the
hotspots are observed along the eastern coastline of Singapore and the
southern part of Johor Bahru. In addition, the hotspot areas are broader
since wind-induced plastics moves from the input points to the ocean.
Compared with the wind-induced current, the wind drift plays a
more significant role in plastic transport in Singapore coastal waters. In
turn, this is attributed to the tropical climate of the area which is mainly
affected by the monsoons and the accompanying strong directional
winds (Fig. S1), thus causing the plastic to be transported with the
predominant wind. Furthermore, it can be shown that increasing
windage leads to plastic distribution at a broader scale around Singapore
X. Tong et al. Journal of Hazardous Materials 414 (2021) 125502

Fig. 2. The seasonal distribution patterns of floating plastic when windage is (A) 0%, (B) 1%, (C) 3%, (D) 5%, respectively.

coastal waters, which indicates that windage may accelerate plastic
transport, and increase the travel distance of plastic and subsequent
extent of the pollution area (Van Sebille et al., 2020).
3.3. Comparison with observed data
First, the modeled plastic distribution patterns were compared with
previous national news (Tan, 2020a, 2020b) which reported severe
plastic waste pollution in the northern area of Singapore during the NE
Monsoon but along the eastern coastline of Singapore during the SW
Monsoon (Fig. 3). These reports are consistent with our model results
which demonstrate that our established plastic tracking model can
accurately predict the seasonal accumulation of plastics in local waters.
In addition, the observed plastic data extracted from the Interna­
tional Coastal Cleanup, Singapore (coastalcleanup.nus.edu.sg) was used
to compare with our model results. Fig. 4 shows the observed data of the
mass and number of plastic wastes along the Singapore coastline. From
the observed data, two hotspots located in the northeast (Ubin Island)
and southwest (Pandan) areas of Singapore were found with higher
plastic mass concentration. Compared with the model results when there

Fig. 3. Distribution patterns of modeled plastic level compared to observation in (A) NE monsoon, (B) SW monsoon.
Photos were from www.straitstimes.com/singapore/monsoon-brings-trash-to-spores-coast and mothership.sg/2020/07/east-coast-park-beach-trash/

5
X. Tong et al. Journal of Hazardous Materials 414 (2021) 125502

Fig. 4. Distribution patterns of observed plastic by (A) mass, (B) number.

Observed data was extracted from coastalcleanup.nus.edu.sg and base map was extracted from d-maps.com

was no windage (Fig. 5A), the plastic waste hotspots were located in the
northwest area of Singapore which is incongruent with the observations
(Fig. 4A). However, the modeled hot spots are consistent with the
observed data when the windage (1%, 3%, 5%) was included. It is
interesting that when the windages are 3% and 5%, the model results
(Fig. 5C and D) are even closer to the observations (Fig. 4A), which
indicate that the windage of the plastic transport is likely from 3% to 5%
in Singapore’s coastal waters. Furthermore, through analyzing the
number of observed plastics along the Singapore coastline, it can be
found that although the mass concentration in the northwest and
southwest areas of Singapore is small (Fig. 4A), the number of plastics is
large (Fig. 4B). This may be attributed to plastics with smaller size and
weight that were collected. The type of observed plastic waste was also
summarized in this study, and this can be utilized to calibrate and
validate a multi-type plastics model in the future.
3.4. Trajectories and travel distance of the floating plastic
In order to quantify the effect of windage on the movements of
floating plastics in the coastal waters, the trajectories of floating plastics

Fig. 5. Distribution patterns of modeled plastic when windage is (A) 0%, (B) 1%, (C) 3%, (D) 5%.
Base map was extracted from d-maps.com

6
X. Tong et al.
released from Singapore and Batam island in 72 h were analyzed
(Fig. 6). When the windage is 0%, the transport of plastics depends on
the hydrodynamic conditions driven by tidal forcing and the distribution
of plastics mainly center around the release points (Fig. 6A and B). After
adding the windage effect into the model, the plastic trajectories varied
significantly from that of the non-windage case. In the NE Monsoon, the
initial movement for the plastic released from the east coast of Singapore
is directed towards the west, followed by the opposite direction, and the
net movement is towards the south (Fig. 6A). When the windage is 5%,
the particles released from Singapore can reach the coastline of the
Batam island within 72 h. When plastic was released from Batam island
during the SW Monsoon, the plastic trajectory is opposite of that in the
NE Monsoon (Fig. 6B). The initial movement is directed to the west, then
changes towards the east, with a net transport direction towards the
north. Plastic originating from Batam island would thus be transported
to the eastern coastline of Singapore during the SW Monsoon, which has
been validated in the aforementioned results and previous news reports
(Tan, 2020a, 2020b). The tidal circulation in this region is driven by
complex semi-diurnal and diurnal tides (Pu, 2016) where the frequency
of fluctuating behaviors of the plastic trajectories is around 12–24 h,
similar to the tidal frequency. Therefore, the trajectories of floating
plastic are determined by a combination of tidal and wind effects in this
study area.
In addition, the travel distance of the floating plastics with different
Fig. 6. Windage effect on the (A-B) trajectories and (C-D) the travel distance of plastic released from the eastern coastline of Singapore during the NE Monsoon and
from Batam during the SW Monsoon (72 h).
7
Journal of Hazardous Materials 414 (2021) 125502
windage is shown in Fig. 6C and D. The travel distance in the windage
included cases is longer than that in the non-windage case, and it
elongates with increasing windage value. During the SW Monsoon, the
travel distance under a windage of 3% overtakes that in the case of 5%
windage after 58 h. This is because the plastic had reached the eastern
coastline of Singapore within 58 h, after which it is moved along the
coastline. Also, the model results showed that the floating plastic can be
transported nearly 70 km with the combined effect of hydrodynamics
and windage (5%) in 72 h. The direct wind effect (windage) re­
distributes the plastic and accelerates its transport in coastal waters.
3.5. Response of regional plastic distribution to climate change and
increasing plastic usage
For better bracing of the impact of climate change (i.e. intensified
wind speed) (Zeng et al., 2019) and increasing plastic usage (Founda­
tion, 2016), it is crucial to simulate plastic movement and distribution
under such future scenarios. After comparing with observed plastic data,
the windage of the present model was quantified as 3–5%. Therefore, the
windage value was set as 3% to simulate the plastic distribution in a
future 2050 scenario. Fig. 7 shows a comparison of plastic level and
travel distance between the current and 2050 scenario. The plastic level
will increase significantly under the 2050 scenario, but the magnitude is
not a simple linear relationship (Fig. 7A). For the observed sites located
X. Tong et al.
Fig. 7. Comparisons between current and 2050 scenarios: (A) plastic level; locations are shown in Fig. 1 (B) the travel distance of plastic released from the east
coastline of Singapore during the NE monsoon and from Batam island during the SW monsoon (72 h).
at the northern part of Singapore, the increasing magnitude is below a
factor of 3. However, the increasing level is more than three in the
southern coastline of Singapore, where a maximum ratio of 4.93 is
reached in the Pandan area. The complex processes caused by higher
wind speed and plastic inputs worsen plastic pollution, especially in the
southern coastline of Singapore. In addition, regardless of origins of
plastic release, i.e. either from Singapore (NE monsoon) or Batam island
(SW monsoon), the rising wind speed would accelerate the transport of
floating plastics and hence, the travel distance (Fig. 7B). During the SW
Monsoon, the travel distance under the 2050 scenario overtakes that
under the current scenario after 58 h (Fig. 7B). This is because the plastic
had reached the east coastline of Singapore within 58 h, after which it
would be moved along the coastline of Singapore similar to the afore­
mentioned results. The model simulations and predicted results would
help strategize mitigation actions to overcome plastic pollution in
response to evolving climate and increasing plastic usage in future.
4. Conclusions
In the current work, we present a coupled hydrodynamic-plastic
tracking model that provides the first results of simulated floating
plastic in the Singapore coastal waters. The hydrodynamic model was
established based on the topography, bathymetry, tidal and meteoro­
logical forcing which provided complicated and realistic circulation
conditions for calculating the floating plastic transport. The hydrody­
namic results were calibrated and validated against the observed water
level data and global model. The influence of different windage on
plastic transport was explored and the model results were also compared
with observed plastic data to quantify the wind effect on plastic trans­
port in this study area. In addition, the effects of climate change and
increasing plastic inputs were explored by simulating the plastic distri­
bution under future scenarios.
Through investigating seasonal circulation patterns, we found that
the wind effect on the hydrodynamics is negligible compared with tidal
forcing in Singapore coastal waters. However, it has a great influence on
floating plastic transport. When the windage (0%) is not included in the
model, there are no obvious seasonal plastic distribution patterns in the
coastal waters. After adding windage (1%, 3%, and 5%), seasonal plastic
hotspots were observed which are located in the northern coastline of
Singapore during the Northeast Monsoon and the eastern coastline of
Singapore during the Southwest Monsoon. In addition, the seasonal hot
spots around Batam island (Indonesia) and Johor Bahru (Malaysia) were
also predicted. These model results are consistent with observations
when windage is 3–5% through comparison with field data, indicating
8
Journal of Hazardous Materials 414 (2021) 125502
that the established model can simulate and predict the distribution and
pathways of the floating plastic with good accuracy. The trajectories and
travel distance of floating plastics released from Singapore and Batam
island with different windage were also explored. Floating plastic is
transported from the river mouth to remote areas under the combined
influences of hydrodynamics and wind. The direct wind effect (windage)
redistributes the plastic distribution patterns and accelerates the plastic
transport in the coastal waters. Based on these model predictions, the
effects of climate change and increasing plastic usage would worsen
plastic pollution along different sections of the coastline depending on
season.
Our methodology lays down a framework for modeling floating
plastics in coastal waters. The results obtained from the established
model can be used to predict the distribution and pathways of floating
plastics which can provide suggestions for coastal cleanup programs,
and support policy-relevant decisions. In future, the distribution of
microplastics, sinking plastics, and risk assessment of plastic pollution in
coastal waters can be simulated to improve the current work. This is
work in progress.
CRediT authorship contribution statement
Xuneng Tong: Conceptualization, Methodology, Software, Investi­
gation, Validation, Formal analysis, Writing – original draft, Writing –
review & editing. Mui-Choo Jong: Investigation, Validation, Formal
analysis, Writing – original draft, Writing – review & editing. Jingjie
Zhang: Methodology, Supervision, Writing – review & editing, Funding
acquisition. Luhua You: Methodology, Investigation, Validation,
Writing – review & editing. Karina Yew-Hoong Gin: Methodology,
Writing – review & editing, Resources, Supervision, Conceptualization,
Funding acquisition, Project administration.
Declaration of Competing Interest
The authors declare that they have no known competing financial
interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence
the work reported in this paper.
Acknowledgments
This research grant is supported by the National University of
Singapore PhD Research Scholarship and the Singapore National
Research Foundation (NRF) under its Campus for Research Excellence
and Technological Enterprise (CREATE) program (E2S2-CREATE project
X. Tong et al.
ES-2: Detection, Assessment & Modelling of Emerging Contaminants in
the Urban Environment). We also acknowledge support by the National
Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 42077356) and State Envi­
ronmental Protection Key Laboratory of Integrated Surface Water-
Groundwater Pollution Control, Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory
of Soil and Groundwater Pollution Control (No. 2017B030301012). We
thank two anonymous reviewers for valuable and constructive com­
ments towards improving the quality of our manuscript.
Appendix A. Supporting information
Supplementary data associated with this article can be found in the
online version at doi:10.1016/j.jhazmat.2021.125502.
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