Syllabus

CE5214: • See Syllabus

Transportation
Systems Analysis

David Levinson

How Much Would You

We have traced out a
Pay for an A in CE
demand curve.
5214?
• How many people would pay $5 for an A? • [See Board]
• How many people would pay $50 for an A?
• How many people would pay $500 for an A?
• How many people would pay $5000 for an
A?

I don’t want to do the

work myself. How much We have traced out a
would I need to pay you supply curve.
to write an A-quality 20 • [See Board]
page term paper?
• How many would write it for $100,000?
• How many would write it for $10,000?
• How many would write it for $1,000?
• How many would write it for $100?
• How many would write it for $10?

1
 Negative Feedback
Supply and Demand
Systems
• Supply and Demand comprise the Negative Feedback
Economists View of Transportation Systems. • An increase in A
begets a decrease in B . +
• They are Equilibrium systems. An increase B begets
• What does that mean? an increase in A.

• Example: Traffic
Demand, Congestion
• [Others] -

Virtuous Circles Vicious Circles

• An increase in A begets an Positive Feedback • An increase in A Positive Feedback
increase in B. An increase
B begets an increase in A
(A Virtuous circle) begets a decrease in B . (A Vicious Cirlce)
A decrease B begets an -
• Example: Traffic Demand, + increase in A.
Gas Tax Revenue, Road
Building • Example: Road
• [Others] Building, Transit
Demand,
• [Others]

+ -

Do Positive Feedback
Systems Converge or Land
Diverge? - Growth
• Yes?
• When.
- as a
+ +
System
Transit Amount Auto
+ Demand of Development Demand

+ + +
Transit + - +
Roadway
Capacity Land
+ Capacity
? Value +
Transit Roadway
+ Accessibilty Accessibility

- - +
Roadway
+ Congestion
+ - +
Gov't Imposed
+
Cost on Development

Figure 4: Transportation and the Montgomery County Growth Management System

2
Supply and Demand as a
Some History
Feedback System
• [See Board] • A. World War II
– i. deployment of radar in a
coordinated way
– ii. spread to other fields
such as fighter tactics,
mission planning and
weapons evaluation.
– iii. use of mathematical
techniques in such problems
came to be known as
operations research, other
statistical and econometric
techniques are being applied
• B. Post World War II
– i. techniques spread to
universities. Mathematical
development and
application to a broad
variety of problems.
– ii. development of systems
analysis. Same analytical
framework but to more
complex problems for
existing mathematical
techniques were not
adequate.

Step A. Define the

Some Definitions
• "A coordinated set of procedures which addresses the
fundamental issues of design and management: that of
specifying how men, money and materials should be
combined to achieve a higher purpose" De Neufville
• "... primarily a methodology, a philosophical approach to
solving problems for and for planning innovative advances"
Baker
• "Professionals who endeavor to analyze systematically the
choices available to public and private agencies in making
changes in the transportation system and services in a
particular region" Manheim
• "Systems analysis is not easy to write about: brief, one
sentence definitions frequently are trivial" Thomas
System
• i. objectives - measures the effectiveness or
performance
• ii. environment - things which affect the system but
are not affected by it
• iii. resources - factor inputs to do the work
• iv. components - set of activities or tasks of the
system
• v. management - sets goals, allocates resources and
exercises control over components
• vi. model of how variables in 1-5 relate to each
other

Step B Generate and

Step C Choose
assess alternatives
alternatives
available to management
• 1. algorithms-systematic search over available alternatives
• The analyst is generally not the decision
– analytical maker. The actual influence of the results of
– exact numerical the analysis in actual decisions will depend
– heuristic numerical
• 2. generate alternatives selectively, evaluate subjectively on:
– fatal flaw analysis – determinacy of evaluation
– simple rating schemes
– Delphi exercises – confidence in the results on the part of the
• 3. generate alternatives judgmentally, evaluate scientifically decision maker
using system model – consistency of rating among alternatives
• 4. need for "stopping rule"

3
 Step D Implementation Step E Evaluation
• Just Do It. • 1. definition: output from a later step in systems
analysis used as input to a later step.

• 2. Examples.
– analysis leads to revisions in systems definition
– implementation experience leads to a revision of output
system definition or values that underlay that definition.

Is the Rational
Define Goals and Objectives

Planning process
The
Define Problem, System (Constraints,
Rational?
Inputs, Outputs, Functions, Values,
Evaluation Criteria) Rational • [Discuss in pairs for ten minutes, be
Generate Solutions Planning prepared to discuss in class]

Analyze Solutions Process

Evaluate Alternatives

Select Alternative

Implement

Alternative Planning
Decision Making
Some Issues
Paradigms.
• Limited Computational or Solution ¿Are They Irrational?
Generating Capacity • Satisficing
• Incomplete Information • Incrementalist
• Cost of Analysis • Organizational Process
• Conflicting Goals/Evaluation Criteria • Poltical Bargaining
• Reliance on Experts (What about the • Decomposition/Hierarchical
People?) Strategy/Tactics/Operations

4
 Summary
• 1. Applied systems analysis is the use of rigorous methods to assist in
determining optimal plans, designs and solutions to large scale problems
through the application of analytical methods.
• 2. Applied systems analysis focuses upon the use of methods, concepts
and relationships between problems and the range of techniques
available. Any problem can have multiple solutions. The optimal
solution with depend upon technical feasibility (engineering) and costs
and valuation (economics).
• 3. Applied systems analysis is an attempt to move away from the
engineering practice of design detail and to integrate feasible engineering
solutions with desirable economic solutions. The systems designer faces
the same problem as the economist, "efficient resource allocation" for a
given objective function.