MODULE 5.

PROBABILITY

Statistics is basically math. Statistics is a branch of mathematics dealing with the collection, analysis,
interpretation, and presentation of masses of numerical data. Statistics is ultimately related and
dependent upon mathematics. But, statistics also requires deep understanding of probability
theory and it's applications to data analysis. Making conclusions on any statistical tests is
based on the field of mathematics called probability theory. The developments of Statistical
Techniques and theories for applications to various sciences …social, physical and natural are based
on fitting different mathematical models to observed data under certain assumptions and the
whole process of such assumptions, analysis and testing are basically mathematical in nature.
Probability is the study of chance and is a very fundamental subject that we apply in everyday living, while
statistics is more concerned with how we handle data using different analysis techniques and collection
methods. These two subjects always go hand in hand and thus you can't study one without studying the
other.

Probability is a mathematical concept that is used to measure the certainly or uncertainly of occurrence of events.
Many statements contain elements of uncertainty: It will shine tomorrow.” Who hasn’t wonder if the scheduled
intramurals intramurals would be spared by bad weather?

We are concerned in many uncertainties such as “Philippines is unlikely to end the COVID 19 pandemic this year”
or “ ASCOT student’s discovery of a new molluskcide might be effective in combating golden kuhol.” When you
gamble, is your probability of winning greater than your probability of losing?

Many problems that cannot be quantified because of uncertainty & doubt can now be analyzed mathematically.
Thus, it affords a type of prediction resulting from several repetitions of an event whose outcomes are based on
chance. Future happenings and events require accuracy and precision, values vital to our day-to- day living & to the
society as a whole.

Generally, in the study of statistics, we are concerned basically w/ the presentation & interpretation of chance
outcomes that occur from an observation or an exp’t.
For ex., we may record the freq’y of brown outs that occur monthly at ASCOT, hoping to justify the acquisition of a
generator set;
or we might classify the fruits coming from ASCOT’s orchard as “above quality”, “quality” or “below quality”, thus
we are able to project future sales.
Hence, the statistician often deals w/ either experimental data, representing counts of measurements, or w/
categorical data that can be classified according to some criterion. In later modules, we will compute a
probability value that tells how likely our data (or results) would occur just by chance.

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To understand the theories of probability, let us define some terms commonly used on probability theory:

1. Probability- the possibility of occurrence or non-occurrence of an event.

Probabilities are expressed as fractions or decimals between 0 & 1 or 0 < P < 1.

when we assign P = 1, means we are referring to the maximum possibility. We mean that
something will always happen. One (1) when converted to percent is 100%. 100%

When we assign, P = 0, 0%, we mean that something can never happen;

0%

when we assign P = ½, then:

when we assign P =1, then:

2. Exp’t –used to describe any process or activity that generates a set of data.
Let us use coins and dice for simpler discussion.
Exp’t of tossing 2 coins will generate data either of the following:

Both HEADS

One head, one tail

One tail, one head

Both tails

An exp’t of giving a quiz to students in Statistics class will generate different grades/ratings

3. Event – Each possible outcome of an exp’t. An event maybe one or more of the possible outcomes of doing
something. It is a subset of a sample space. Often EVENT refers to the desired outcomes in an exp’t.
Examples of a statistical exp’t are as follows:
Ex. A. In an exp’t of tossing only “1 coin”, there are only 2 possible events/outcomes called the sample space,

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head or tail .

Getting a head would be an event.

Getting a tail would still another event

B. In the exp’t of tossing 2 coins the ff are events:

Both is an event.

One is also an event.

One is also an event.

Both is also an event.

C. In an exp’t of drawing a card from a deck of 52 cards, there are 52 events… 13(4)
D. In an exp’t of launching new 4 pesticides & observing their effectivity at specified
times, there are 8 possible events, either effective or not effective.

E.In an exp’t of interviewing the opinion of 100

businessmen concerning a new sales tax, there are 200
possible events.

F. The opinion of voters concerning a new candidate can also be considered as

observations of an exp’t. We are particularly interested in the observations obtained.

G. In an exp’t of choosing one representative from a class of 35 students, there are

35 events possible.

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H. The diff’t grades/ratings is a result of giving a quiz to students in Stat class are the outcomes or events.

4. Sample Space - the set of data generated in an exp’t or the total # of possible events or outcomes.

A. The sample space for throwing a coin has 2 events: S = (head or tail).

B. The sample space in tossing 2 coins are the ff 4 events:

1. Both is an event.

2. One is also an event.

3. One is also an event.

4. Both is also an event.

Often Sample Space refers to the all possible outcomes in an exp’t.

C. In an exp’t of drawing a card from a deck of 52 cards, the Space space
are the 52 outcomes.

D. In an exp’t of choosing one representative from a class of 35 students,

there are 35 possible OUTCOMES.

There are 5 ways to solve the total sample space.

As an example in solving the sample space, let’s consider the exp’t of rolling 2 die simultaneously,

one is (gray) & the other is (yellow).

To illustrate the 36 possible events, let us use the illustrations below.

1st way: by tabulation

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2nd way. By Tree diagram
To make a tree diagram, we start from a common pt.& draw lines for each of the possible outcome of the
1st stage.
From each of these lines will branch off lines representing the possible outcomes of the 1st stage, & the process
continues until the possible outcomes of the last stage have been represented in the diagram.

3rd way. By Multiplication Rule

N1 ways x N2 ways = N ways

6 possible events for , and 6 possible events for

6 ways x 6 ways = 36 ways

Ex. 2 Lets consider the number of ways a tourist could go to Aurora:

1. By drawing a simple graph
R4
Route 1

Manila R2 Cab. C Aurora

ila R5
R3

2. By Tree diagram

3. By Tabulation

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 Routes to Aurora
Routes R4 R5
Manila to Cabanatuan R1 R1- R4 R1- R5
City R2 R2-R4 R2-R5
R3 R3-R4 R3-R5

4. By Multiplication Rule

N1 ways x N2 ways = N ways

3 ways x 2 ways = 6 ways

5. By permutation/combination - statistical formula for solving the total sample space when the # of objects
being analyzed by the method of counting by hand, graphs or diagrams becomes increasingly tedious.

As in… How many plate numbers can be done for arranging 3 letters in the alphabet w/o repetition followed 4
numbers that could be repeated?

For simple discussion, Let’s start with Letter A, B and C for a simple example. If we want to study the possible
arrangement made from ordering the letters A, B, and C we can begin by counting out all the
orderings…

{(A B C), (A C B), (B C A), (BAC), (C B A),(C A B)}

giving us a total of 6 possible arrangements of 3 distinct objects.

The formula for Permutation and combination uses the Factorial Notation (!).The factorial notation is
the exclamation mark, and you will see it directly following a number such as 4!. We define
the factorial of a number as the product of consecutive descending natural numbers and
represent it by !. For example, the factorial of 4 or 4! = 4×3×2×1. ... In the factorial notation,
we define the factorial of 0 to be = 1.

The counting method is simple when the #of objects is small, but when the # of objects being analyzed
increases the method of counting by hand becomes increasingly tedious. The way to do this
mathematically is using factorials. If you have n distinct objects then you can order them into n! groups.

Breaking the factorial for our last example we can say,

1st there are 3 objects (A, B, C) to choose from, then 2, then 1 no matter w/c object we choose first.

Multiplying the numbers together we get 3•2•1= 3! read as 3 factorial. = 6

This follows the multplication rule.

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3 ways • 2 ways • 1 way

But since numbers are constantly decreasing by one, we simply call it factorial.

In short notation, we use 3! Read as 3 factorial, w/c means 3•2•1

For ex., 4! = 4 • 3 • 2 • 1 = 24.

Now, for example, using all the letters of the alphabet, find all the possible orderings.

There are 26 letters in the English alphabet, The # of possible outcomes is simply 26!

We must learn how to compute for the total # of sample points w/c we call sample space. For larger values, you can
use, scientific calculator in solving factorials. What is important is you know the basic how it is computed.

Applying factorial, there are two important ways by which the sample space is determined are known as
permutations and combinations.

1. Permutations- refers to the # of ways by w/c item may be arranged in a definite order.

Three (3) formulas for 3 different cases have been set up for determining the # of permutations.

Case 1. Where there are n items to be arranged all (taking all) at a time, & where none of these items are repeated,
the # of permutations is computed in taking n! ,

No. of Sample points = nPn = n!

nPr read as the arrangement of n items taking n at a time.

Left subscript n = total # of items, &

Right subscript n= # of items taken at a time.

For ex., if the letters a, b, & c will be arranged such that all the letters are taken at a time,

the total # of ways by w/c they can be arranged is

P =n! =3! = 3·2·1 or 6.

3 3

To prove: These arrangements are: abc acb bac bca cab cba

Hence, there are 6 sample pts in the sample space of 3 letters arranged 3 at a time.

Case 2. Where there are n items taking r (not all) at a time, w/ no item repeated, the # of permutations is computed
through the formula; nPr read as the arrangement of n items taking r at a time.
n!
nPr=
(n - r)!

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n=total # of items, and
r = # of items taken at a time

Using the letters a, b, & c again, this time taking only 2 (not all) at a time (i.e., a & b, b & c, and so on). The possible
arrangements would be:
n! 3! 3! 3  2  1
 
nPr = 3P2 =
(n - r)! = (3  2)! 1! 1
= 6 ways
To prove: list down what these arrangements are, we have:

ab ac ba bc ca cb

2B G
Thus, there will 6 sample points in the sample space of 3 letters arranged 2 letters at a time.
1
B
Case 3. Where there are n items taken all at a time where some of the items are repeated, the 2 formula to be used
n!
is: nPn =
n1!n 2!...n k !

where: n1, n2 . . . nk refer to the # of times each item is repeated.

Ex., To find out the total # of ways we may arrange the letters of the name “EDDIE,” we would let…

n1 = 2 because there are 2 E’s; n2 = 2 because there are 2 D’s; n3 = 1 because there is only one I. Substituting in
the formula, we have:

5! 5  4  3  2 1
5 P5 
2!2!1! = 2  1  2  1  1 =30 ways
Ex. a) In how many ways may Anna, Marie, Mario and Nito be arranged in a row of 4 seats?
Vs. b) In how many ways may 2 girls & 2 boys be arranged in a row of 4 seats?

Ex. a is a Case1. Ans. 4!= 4·3·2·1 = 24

Ex. b is a Case 3

Case 3. The total number of ways would be:

4! 4  3  2 1
4P4 =
2!2! = 2  1  2  1 = 6 ways
These arrangements would be:
BBGG GGBB BGGB
GBBG BGBG GBGB

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With B1 as starting point , THERE ARE 6 WAYS

G1 G2
B2
G2 G1
B2 G2
B1 G2 G2 B2
G1 B2 G1
G1 B2
Following the same procedure w/ B2 as starting point, there
will be another 6 ways
Following the same procedure w/ G1 as starting point, there will be another 6 ways
Following the same procedure w/ G2 as starting point, there will be another 6 ways
In total, we will generate 4 x 6 = 24 ways

3. Find the # of distinct combinations from rearranging the letters of PEPPER. There are 6 letters, 3 Ps,
2 Es but only 1 R. Starting with 6! we need to divide by the repeat possible outcomes

6!/ (3!•2!) = 6•5•4•3•2/(3! •2!) = = 6•5•4•3•2/(3•2 •2)

G1
= 120/2 = 60 possible ways
2 G
where on the bottom, the 3! is for the repeated Ps and the 2! is for the repeated Es.

Note: You can cancel same integer factorials just like integers.

6!/ (3!•2!) = 6•5•4•3!/(3! •2!)

= 6•5•4/2!

= 60

COMBINATIONS - also refer to the # of ways a set of items or objects may be arranged, however, the order is not
taken into consideration.
If we have n items taking r at a time, and we don’t consider order, we use the formula:
n!
nCr 
(n  r )! r!
Using the letters a, b, & c again, this time taking only 2 (not all) at a time (i.e., a & b, b & c, and so on). The possible
arrangements would be:

3! 3! 3  2 1
n!  
nPr = 3P2 = (n - r)!r! =
(3  2)!2! 1!2! 2

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= 3 ways

To prove: list down what these arrangements are, we have:

ab bc ca
ab and ba are counted as one group as the group have the same elements
bc and cb are counted as one group as the group have the same elements
ca and ac are counted as one group as the group have the same elements

The # of combinations for a set of n items taken all at the same time will always be 1 because order is not given
importance.

If, for instance, we take the letters a, b, & c all at the same time & we do not consider order, there is only 1 sample
point in the sample space. It will not matter w/c ever letter comes 1st, as long as items are in the group as shown
below.
ba ab ca
c or c or b
same combinations are counted as one.

Ex., in how many ways may a class of 10 students select 3 delegate-representatives for that class?

10! 10  9  8  7  6  5  4  3  2  1
10 C3 
(10  3)!3! = 7  6  5  4  3  2  1  3  2  1
= 120 ways

Lets relate this computation of sample space or total possible outcomes now with Probability

Probability (P) of an event:

The P of a certain event is 1 & the P of an impossible event is 0.

For ex., if a coin whose 2 sides are both heads (a biased coin called “doble cara”) is tossed several times, the P of
getting a head is one,

P(H) = 1
while … the P of getting a tail is zero.
P(T) = 0

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The P of occurrence or non-occurrence of an event is expressed as a fraction, a decimal, or a percent, & it ranges
from 0 to 1, or 0% to 100% likelihood of occurrence; that is,

Range = 0 < P (E) < 1 or

-
Range = 0 % < P (E) < 100%

where P (E) stands for the P that an event E will occur

Two major types of probability.

Classical/theoretical/Expected Probability

Experimental Probability

1. Expected P is the ratio

No. of desired outcome

P(desired outcome) 
Total no. of possible outcomes

Ex.1 In an exp’t of tossing a coin it has only 2 possible outcomes, either a H or a T.

Usually, we want a head ( the desired outcome)

No. of desired outcome
P(head )   1/ 2
Total no. of possible outcomes
1
P( H ) 
2
P (getting a H to turn up) at a single throw is ½ bec. there is only 1 outcome w/c satisfies our desire for a H & there
are 2 total possible outcomes.

P (getting a H to turn up for a “doble cara” coin) at a single throw is 2/2 bec. there are 2 outcomes w/c satisfies our
desire for a H & there are 2 total possible outcomes.

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 2. In an exp’t of throwing a single die ,

 P (getting the # “4”) is…

…1/6 because among the 6 total possible outcomes, there is only 1 face (outcome) w/c satisfies our desire
for the # “4”.

3. In the exp’t of throwing a single die,

& we would like to find P (getting an even #) in a single throw, , , .

A single die has 6 faces – 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, & 6. Hence it has 6 definable outcomes

No. of desired outcome

P(desired outcome) 
Total no. of possible outcomes
3 1
P(even)  
6 2
There are 3 desired outcomes ; & there are 6 total possible
outcomes for a single throw of die.

P (even #) = 3/6 or ½.

4. A deck of playing cards has 52 faces. Out of this,

13 are ♦;
13 are ♣;
13 are ♥;
13 are. ♠

P (drawing ♦) =13/52 =25% = 0.25

2. Exp’tal P is a mathematical expression of the prediction made

from exp’ts that is repetitive in nature & leads to well-defined
outcomes w/ definable outcomes.

This P may be expressed as the ratio:

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 # of favorable events
P(success) 
Total # of possible events
Ex.1. A coin has 2 definable outcomes when tossed- a H & a T.

P (H turned up) is the proportion of times that H will appear if the coin is tossed over & over again.

If for the 1st 10 tosses, H turns up 6 times, then the P = 6/10 or 60%.

If for the 1st 50 tosses, H turns up 24 times, then P=24/50 for the successful appearance of the H.

Ex.2. A single die has 6 faces: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, & 6. Hence it has 6 definable outcomes.

If we are interested in P that will appear in the throw of the die, we make several trials of throwing.

If we throw the die 10 times & appeared on top 3 times will, then P(2) = 3/10 or 0.3 or 30%.

If we throw it 60 times & appears 9 times, P ( ) will appear is 9/60 or 3/20.

As we increase the # of throws for the single die, the P of getting the to appear stabilizes to 1/6 since the
expected P of any face of the die turning up in 1 toss or roll is 1/6 (there is 1 face each # and there are a total of 6
faces).

A P tree is a diagram used for representing information from exp’ts w/c occur in dependent stages in a sequential
chart listing the possible outcomes at each stage of the exp’t together w/ their corresponding Ps. It therefore
illustrates the sample space of an exp’t.

To take a P-tree,we start from a common pt.& draw lines for each of the possible out come of the 1st stage. From
each of these lines will branch off lines representing the possible outcomes of the 1st stage, & the process
continues until the possible outcomes of the last stage have been represented in the diagram.

P-tree is most useful in keeping track of probabilities at various stages of the exp’t. In order to compute the p of an
outcome…
we merely multiply the probabilities along the path of branches, w/c represents the desired outcome.

The ff ex. of a p-tree illustrates all the possibilities that could result from tossing a coin 3 times, say a bias coin with
a probability of 0.6 getting a head and 0.4 for getting a tail for every toss.

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 Some application
Ex. Among the student pop’n, 70% are blood type O & 30% are of blood type A.
Medicine Brand 1 has 80% & 50% chances of being effective for people w/ blood types O & A, respectively.
While Med.Brand II has a 90% & 40% chance effective for people w/ blood types O & A respectively.
W/c medicine brand has a better chance of being effective?

The P that Brand I is effective is found by multiplying the probabilities along the effective paths.

Hence,
P(E) for Brand I is (.7)(.8)+(.3)(.5)=.71 or
71%.

P(E) for Brand II is (.7)(.9)+(.3)(.4) =.75 or

75%.

therefore, Brand II has a greater chance of

being effective for treating the student
population.

Ex. In ASCOT, ¼ of the students are leaders while the remaining are followers. It is known that the P that a leader
will cooperate is 1/3 while the P that a follower will cooperate is 2/5. Find the P that a stud’t will not cooperate.

P(NC)=9/20 + 2/12 = 27/60 +10/60

= 37/60

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Exercises (SHOW SOLUTIONS):
1. If a freshman, a sophomore, & a junior (high sch stud’ts) are asked to group themselves into two’s,
a. Find p (a freshman will be in the group),
b. Find p (there will be no sophomore).

2. a. In how many ways may the position of two vice-presidents be given to six nominees?

3. In how many ways that two girls and two boys will sit in a row of four chair?

4. What is the probability that a girl will sit at the leftmost chair if two boys and two girls are asked to sit in a row of
four chairs?

5. Students has prepared six different displays for Christmas. There are only 3 display windows. Will there be
sufficient number of display arrangements for a period of 25 days without repeating any arrangement?

6. Twelve finalist vie for the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd prizes of a beauty contest. Find the total number of sample points for
the awarding.

7. Make a table for the sample space of outcomes when the 2 dice w/ 6 faces are thrown once simultaneously for
the ff conditions.
a) a sum more than 3
b) a sum less than 4

8. Each of two dice have 6 faces, four of which are numbered 1, one is numbered 2, and the other face is numbered
Make a table for the sample space of outcomes when the two dice are thrown once simultaneously.
a. a sum more than 3
b. a sum less than 4

9. If two coins are thrown once simultaneously, find probability of the possible outcomes of the ff.
a) at least one tail appears
b) two tails appear
c) a head and a tail appear

10. What is the probability of getting a diamond from a deck of cards with a single draw?

11. If two dice are thrown once simultaneously, find the probability for the following conditions.
a. getting a sum of 7
b. getting a sum more than 7.

12. Each of 2 dice have six faces, four of which are numbered 1, one is numbered 2, and the other face is
numbered 1.
Find the probability of getting:
a. a sum more than 3
b. a sum less than 4

13. If two coins are thrown simultaneously, enumerate the possible outcomes, then find the probability that:
a. at least one tail appears

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b. two tails appear
c. a head and a tail appear

14. Find the total number of sample points in the sample space defined by the following:
a. 3 coins thrown simultaneously
b. a committee of four members taken from a group of twelve
c. arrangement of the letters of the word “EXAGGERATE”

15. Find the probability of getting 2 heads and 3 tails in a single throw of five unbiased coins.

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