Monthly Average Temperature Modelling M. Andrade-Bejarano Abstract This research is associated with the goal of the horticultural sector of the Colombian southwest, which is to obtain climatic information, specifically, to predict the monthly average temperature in sites where it has not been measured, ‘The data correspond to monthly average temperature, and were recorded in meteo- rological stations at Valle del Cauca, Colombia, South America. Two components are identified in the data of this research: (1) a component due to the temporal as- pects, determined by characteristics of the time series, distribution of the monthly average temperature through the months and the temporal phenomena, which in- cteased (El Nifio) and decreased (La Nifia) the temperature values, and (2) a com- ponent due to the sites, which is determined for the clear differentiation of two populations, the valley and the mountains, which are associated with the pattern of monthly average temperature and with the altitude. Finally, due to the closeness between meteorological stations it is possible to find spatial correlation between data from nearby sites. In the first instance a random coefficient model without spatial covariance structure in the errors is obtained by month and geographical location (mountains and valley, respectively). Models for wet periods in mountains show a normal distribution in the errors; models for the valley and dry periods in mountains do not exhibit a normal pattern in the errors. In models of mountains and wet periods, omni-directional weighted variograms for residuals show spatial continuity. The random coefficient model without spatial covariance structure in the errors and the random coefficient model with spatial covariance structure in the errors are capturing the influence of the El Nifio and La Nifia phenomena, which indicates that the inclusion of the random part in the model is appropriate. The altitude variable contributes significantly in the models for mountains, In general, the cross-validation process indicates that the random coefficient model with spa- tial spherical and the random coefficient model with spatial Gaussian are the best Mi. Andmade-Bejarano School of Biological Sciences, Statistics Section, Harry Pitt Building, The University of Reading, G6 GEN, Reading, United Kingdom and Universidad del Valle, Cali, Colombia, South America. ‘e-mail: sny02ma@reading ac.uk A, Soares et al (eds,), e0ENV VI ~ Geostatistics for Environmental Applications, 247-262 © Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2008 247248 M., Andrade-Bejarano models for the wet periods in mountains, and the worst model is the model used by the Colombian Institute for Meteorology, Hydrology and Environmental Studies (IDEAM) to predict temperature. 1 Introduction ‘The county of Valle del Cauca (Colombia, South America; study zone) covers an area of 2,214,000 ha, of which 350,000 ha (15.8%) is used for agriculture (SAG, 2001), Agriculture is the main sector of the regional economy. Specifically, veg- etables represent 1.5% of the agricultural area and the tomato crop represents 45% of this area. Tomato production is realised in farms with extension of less than 5 ha (the majority being between 0.5 and 2 ha), especially concentrated in hillside areas. Three kind of sowing areas are found: (1) low tropic (flat zone of Valle del Cauca), (2) middle tropic (low hillside), and (3) high tropic (high hillside). The tomato crop grows in low tropic and middle tropic areas, at altitudes between 0 and 2000 m, ‘The vegetable crop zones and specifically the tomato crop zones have techno- logical problems, which have affected social and economical aspects in the region, generating low life levels and high inversion risk in this sector of the Colombian economy. The problems identified are concerned with (1) adaptation problems of the seeds, (2) the tomato varieties cultivated being susceptible to a minimum of four fungus pathogens, two bacterial and two viral, and (3) farmers using pesticides as a predominant tool to eliminate phytosanitary problems. The Colombian Insti- tute for Agricultural and Farm Research (CORPOICA) has identified three research lines with the objective of obtaining knowledge to provide proposals for solving the technological problems identified with the tomato crop: (1) estimation of climatic and edaphic variables in sites where it has not been measured, (2) determination of adaptation ranges of the varieties and species and their relation with climatic and environmental factors, (3) ecology and biology of plagues, fungus and virus and its, relation with climatic and environmental factors. This research is associated with the first objective of CORPOICA and is focused on the analysis of climatic variables, specifically for the prediction of monthly average temperature in sites where it has not been measured (Osorio, 1999). 2 Data ‘The data correspond to monthly average temperature and were recorded in meteo- rological stations at Valle del Cauca, Colombia, South America. In this project all meteorological stations in the study zone, with records of monthly average tem- perature and altitudes less than 2000 m.a.s.l., were included in the analysis. This corresponds to 28 meteorological stations, located within latitudes from 3°19'N to 4°44'N, within longitudes from 75°49'W to 76°45'W and within altitudes from 920‘Monthly Average Temperature Modelling 249, Fig. 1 Location of meteorological stations on map of Valle del Cauca, included in monthly average temperature modelling. @: Meteorological station located in mountains, Ml: Meteorological station located in the valley to 1950 m (Fig. 1). Fifteen meteorological stations are located in the valley, at al- titudes between 950 and 1100 m.a.s.l., and 13 in the mountains, at altitudes from 1233 to 1950 mast 3 Exploratory Data Analysis and The Research Problem ‘Two components that characterise this research are identified: (1) A component due to the temporal aspects, corresponding to the data recorded during the period 1971 to 2002. (2) A component due to the sites (meteorological stations) and their local ge- ographic characteristics that determine it. Several aspects of these two components are explored in the temporal component: Some of the time series from meteorolog- ical stations show a trend to increase (Fig. 2), indicating that these trends should be modelled or time series should be de-trended (Box et al., 1994; Vandaele, 1983)250 M., Andrade-Bejarano vanuary evruary Mawternp 0) R 497 1980 | 1990 ©2000 1970-1980 ~-—«1990 2000 Year Fig.2 Time series graphics from meteorological station localised in Valley at 1040 m, forthe driest period January ~ February A seasonal variation in the monthly average temperature is observed (Fig. 3). Two dry periods and two wet periods are clearly identified. Temporal phenomena affected the monthly average temperature values. The El Nifio phenomenon increased the temperature values and in the La Nifia phenomenon decreases in the values were observed (Figs. 4 and 5), which indicates that year to year there are variations in the mean values of monthly average temperature and these variations should be modelled, With respect to the component due to the sites, two populations are clearly iden- tified (Fig. 6); the valley and mountains behave differently with respect to altitude: there is a linear relation between monthly average temperature and altitude in the data belonging to mountains (Fig, 7(b)) and in the valley the pattern of monthly average temperature is constant (Fig. 7(a)). Therefore the modelling of monthly average temperature may be considered separately for the valley and mountains. Ht ' . a je Fig. 3 Box plots for monthly average temperature for (a) The Valley (b) Mountains‘Monthly Average Temperature Modelling 251 @ (b) Fig. 4 Graphs of the three phenomena, for the valley (a) mean values of monthly average temper ature versus months, and (b) maximum values of monthly average temperature versus months co) ) Fig. § Graphs of the three phenomena, for mountains (a) mean values of monthly average temper ature versus months (b) maxinvum values of monthly average temperature versus months ” ie Lk I @ &) Fig, 6 Monthly average temperature histograms, including data of the Valley and Mountains for (@) the dry month January, (b) the wet month October