Q2 2021 Journal

Trading Strategy
- Telling a Wyckoff story is the basis of the system, rather than attempting to pick tops and bottoms
exactly
- Specify Criteria – Use template and modify
o Stick to the same “universe” of markets
o Stick to the same time frame
o Background conditions (background and structure is key)
o Permission to trade
o Entry Parameters – know exactly when it’s going to be so you aren’t thinking about it in real
time
o Risk
o Profit Targets
o Trade Management
- Combine Signs of strength/weakness with structure
o Momentum slows – Shortening of the thrust, diminishing spreads, effort vs result
discrepancy
o Change of Behavior – Highest spreads/waves/movement in the opposite direction.
Establishing new momentum, which precedes price
o Test – Story is complete when the reaction from the COB is congruent with the prior story
being told. It is weaker in comparison to the COB, and perhaps shows weaker
characteristics in comparison to the period of slowing momentum
- Playbook – PnF & Vertical
o Test of Ice
o Backup after a Jump Across Creek
- Checklist
o Vertical – is there evidence of declining supply/demand? (shortening of thrusts, declining
demand/supply scan)
o PnF – Effort vs Reward analysis, declining counter waves with either declining or
substantially increasing volume signatures
o Tape Reading – Price retakes the 5 day Moving Average, with the close being of good
quality
- Trade Management
o Goal is to risk 1-2% for a 5-10% gain
o If PnF count is larger than 15%, aim for an option which is roughly 10% OTM, with at least
15 days to Expiry
o If PnF count is less than 15%, aim for an option which is roughly 5% OTM, with less than 15
days to expiry

Routine

- Check market action, understand where we are in terms of Wyckoff phases, including PnF counts
o ES, NQ, RTY
o GC, SI
o CL, TLT
o FX
- Adjust any open positions
o Move stop losses, close out positions, etc
o Record any changes, as well as take screen shot of closed trades
o Record trade details of closed trades
- Quick mental analysis of Master watchlist for:
o Phase C/D
o Moving Average interaction
 o Wave volume
o Significant Bar
- List stocks which are in play (yet to breach Significant Bar levels)
- Run through relative strength, sentiment and breadth indicators, mostly looking for divergences
o List outperforming sectors and underperforming sectors
o Analyze stocks above 200 day moving average
o Put/Call Ratio
- Run through scans and unusual options activity
o SCTR Scan
o Long Term Winners Scan
- WSB ideas
- For instruments which are on the ‘springboard,’ conduct PnF analysis so as to ascertain price
targets
- Enter trades on at the appropriate times, with the appropriate candle spread and close-to-spread
situations
o FX: 5am, 9am, 1pm, 9pm
o Futures: 7am, 9am, 11am
o Stocks: between 3-4pm
- Record trade details as well as take a screen shot of the trade the moment that it happens

Trading Strategy Parameters

- Instrument must be in Wyckoff Phase C, D, or E with a defined Wyckoff event (spring, LPS, etc)
- Moving Average Balance
o Price must be testing moving average
o Moving average must be either flat or sloping in the direction of the perspective trade on all
relevant time frames
o Faster moving average should be above slower moving average for long trades, below the
slower moving average for short trades
- Evidence of Confirmation and Testing (price action as well as wave volumes - effort vs result, no
demand/supply)
- Significant bar reversal/Strat Techniques
o 2-2 Reversals
o Inside Bars
- TTM Squeeze
o Price must be in the squeeze on both Daily and Intraday
o Momentum histogram must be trending in the correct direction on both Daily and intraday
- Scans for Reversals, Inside Bars, squeezes and FTFC
o Scan Daily for 2-2 Reversals on Daily Chart. Filter through Full TimeFrame Continuity and
Squeeze
o Scan Weekly for Inside Weeks and 2-2 Reversals on Weekly Chart. Use those for targeting
intraday trades for continuation

Trigger

- Wait for a Weekly reversal pattern (2-2, RevStrat or 2-3 in Strat parlance)
- Note the weekly trigger price
- Enter on a lower timeframe on a reversal pattern which occurs above the trigger price for a long
position, or below the trigger price for a short
- Hold until there is a reversal on the Daily chart.
- Should price dip below or above the trigger price in the early stages of the trade, sell and wait for
possible re-entry.

Trade Management
 - For options, max 50% of acct allocation. Maximum of 5% of account allocated per idea, with a view
to taking the trade off the table at a 2% or so loss.
- The remainder of the account is allocated for futures trading, with the proceeds being added to that
used for options work.

6 April Watchlist

- CCL, DKNG, HD, JWN, LOW, M, MCD, RCL, SBUX, SHAK,

- APA, RIG,
- JNJ, LLY, MDT
- SAVE
- ALB, AUY, FCX, GDX, GOLD, KGC, WPM, X
- AAPL, DBX, FEYE, IBM, MA, MRVL, NVDA, PYPL, QCOM, ROKU, SQ, V
- DHI

19 April Stocks In Play

- BABA
- BBY
- CHWY
- LVS
- M
- RCL
- XOM
- AIG
- C
- JPM
- KEY
- PNCH
- RF
- BA
- CAT
- DE
- RTX
- ALB
- AUY
- AMAT
- DBX
- MSFT
- MU

Campaign Stocks

- NFLX
- PINS

24 April

- AMZN, CVS, BMY, GDX/GDXJ, NEM, MDT are stocks which are in play on the Weekly squeeze level.
NEM, MDT and CVS have already fired just this week and are looking as though they are going to
be nice momentum plays.
- As always, we are looking for charts which meet the muliti faceted parameters laid out, with the
intraday level slowing of momentum/squeeze being used as a final arbiter of trande entrance
- Daily Sqeeze Plays
 o M – 18 Jun 24 call
o PNC – 21 may 190 call
o SAVE – 21 May 45 call
o PLTR – 21 May 27 call
o JWN – 21 May 45 call, basing this on wave move to the downside, effort v result
o MS – 21 May 90 call
o GS – 21 May 390 or 400 call
o ALB – nearing the completion of a backing up action, particularly on the intraday
o UNP – 21 May 235 call
- Continuation Momentum Plays
o NVDA
o MSFT
o TSLA
o AAPL
o FB
o AMAT
o GOOGL
- Other Ideas
o CL nearing the end of its reaccumulation, and the impact on energy stocks
o Other financials, such as BAC, C, JPM, AIG
o DIS with a massive effort v reward situation
o PINS, SNAP, SPOT, TWTR making the same sort of inverse head and shoulders setup
o AMZN, phase D. Does it need a quick move down for LPS?
o HD/LOW flying
o MCD momentum slowing, needs a defined phase C in backup structure?
o JNJ LPS?
o ALK similar to SAVE
o CAT – effort v reward similar to DIS
o DE – effort v reward plus daily squeeze
o FDX/UPS – LPS for FDX, UPS is performing better, having already made a SOS into the
backingup action. Needs a momentum decline into the 0 line that coincides with completion
of BU
o GE – LPS
o X – effort v reward
o MU LPS formation
o PYPL, QCOM, SQ, ROKU all forming volatile LPS structures
o MA/V need to react
o LEN/TOL are shaping up nicely, while DHI has run off.
o AMD starting to wake up?

1 May

- Somewhat tenuous situation in the market, no clear defined edge. Possibly in a Phase B structure
with respect to NQ. In the bigger picture, this is a backing up action in relation to the trading action
from the start of the year. A clear horizontal structure contains the backing up action and could be
continued through the first half of the month.
- For now the game plan is to sit tight until there is more clarity.
- Most ideal scenario would be to see an intraday Phase C spring/shakeout/LPS form before the
market turns and rockets higher toward the back up highs.
- Alternate case would be to see 13700 approached and no real lift off, suggesting lower prices and a
move toward 13500
- FANG earnings have come and gone, and have been a mixed bag. FB and GOOGL took off, while
AAPL, NFLX and AMZN either did nothing or tanked
- If scenario A occurs, and the market puts in a significant low for a move higher, consider the
following:
o Communications
  DIS – massive effort v reward at an elevated level, showing commitment to higher
prices. Also in a squeeze position
 CMCSA – squeeze position, plus massive effort v reward at a backing upaction level,
plus positive earnings, plus structure position. Day after earnings saw supply coming
in but price failed to follow through. Evidence of demand. Needs PnF analysis
 SNAP – Squeeze position while in Phase C structure, esting channel support,
declining volume waves, higher highs higher lows
o Consumer Discretionary
 BB – Daily squeeze, plus LPS structure forming within a mini trading range at the top
of the trading range, also an effort V reward situation brewing in terms of that Phase
C ministrucuture. Needs to recover the 119.5 area
 CCL/RCL – Squeezing both at Daily and 2H level, showing declining supply
characteristics, committing above the trading range
 HD/LOW – continuation moves to the upside
 M – possible add ons
 MCD – squeeze position, would like to see stock have an intraday LPS form. Strong
stock
 NIO/TSLA – looking to be making the turn around the corner in term sof LPS
formation, or in a traditional sense inverse head and shoulder formation
o Consumer Staples
 KHC – on the springboard
 WBA – effort v reward, coming onto slower Moving Average, similar structure which
led to large moves in the past
o Energy
 KMI, MPC, OKE
o Financials
 BAC, C, JPM, KEY, WFC?
o Healthcare
 JNJ
o Industrials
 CAT, DE GE, LUV, SAVE
o Materials
 X
o Technology
 AAPL, ADBE, AMD, FEYE, MA, MDB, MSFT, NVDA, QCOM, WDC
o Real Estate
 LEN
- If the market is to show some weakness, consider the following names:
o BIDU, PINS, SPOT
o BABA, CHWY, NKE, PTON

8 May 2021

- Communications, Energy, Financials, Indusrials and Materials are the sectors which are showing
some strength here, may lead the market higher. Tech and others are looking dodgy, with a few
exceptions
- Notable Stocks
o Consumer Discretionary
 GME – price is in an apex formation, with a squeeze alert over multiple days
 LB – reaccumulation structure finishing? Also has a daily squeeze
o Consumer Staples
 KR – re-accumulation structure forming at top of longer term TR, showing
commitment at this level
 WBA
o Energy
 OKE – price feathering upward, still in the squeeze position on both Daily and 2H
  RIG – recently fired, would like to see a small pull back or sideways commitment
above 3.80 to get involved
 WMB – possibly ready to run to the races, above its June 2020 level and its
“waterfall” zone
o Industrials
 AAL – Just entering a squeeze with positive momentum histogram, 2H sqeeuze has
fired
 ALK – mulit day spring, with moving average confluence, and reaccumulation
structure
 GE – reaccumulation structure at very important strategic level, committing above
the 2020 ‘waterfall’ highs.
 LUV – similar to ALK
o Technology
 AMAT
 QCOM
 WDC
- Earnings Run-Up stocks
o HD, M, WMT, LOW, TGT, LB, AMAT, DE, NVDA, GME, LEN, FDX, MU

15 May 2021

- Base case is that the stock market is in the process of completing a Phase C LPS formation within a
larger accumulation structure going back to Jan 2021. This is most pronounced in the NQ and RTY,
whereas the YM and ES have firmly established new highs and are trying to settle at a new level.
Price has just had a sharp correction to the downside, and if the most recent lows hold, it would be
a textbook lower low and LPS. Price has also traveled to an area of channel support which stretches
back to Sept 2020.
- On the intraday NQ chart we are seeing a change of behavior from the lows, in terms of wave
volume, momentum and distance traveled. We are next looking for a reaction lower which confirms
this nascent bullishness, on both the Daily and intraday.
- Sector Analysis
o The most positive sectors are Energy, Communications, Industrials, Financials and Materials
o Technology has been a laggard, but has the potential to show leadership again. It was the
second strongest sector on 14 May, which tentatively is an important institutional demand
day. Pockets of Consumer Discretionary have been perking up as well
- Broad Stock Ideas
o DIS, FB
o CCL, F, JWN, M, MCD,
o WBA
o APA, DVN, EOG, ET, MRO, RIG, SLB, VLO, XOM
o BAC, C, GS, JPM, KEY, MS, PNC, RF, SCHW, WFC
o AAL, ALK, CAT, DE, GE, LUV,
o AA, FCX, GDXJ, X
o AAPL, FEYE, MSFT, NVDA, WDC,
o SPG
- Shorts, ARKK discussion
o PINS, SNAP, SPOT, TWTR
o ETSY, NIO, TSLA, PTON, ROKU, DOCU, SQ
o Z
- FX
o USD pairs need a slight reaction to MA
o GBPJPY, AUDJPY, NZDJPY, EURCAD,
- More Focused Ideas
o ATVI – 95.77
o FB – 319.08 – 5% position, 380 calls for 16 July
o SNAP – triggered weekly, looking for 54.70 significnt bar on Daily
o AMZN – 3291, 4935 target - 5% position
 o CCL – Triggered, Short term play looking for 33.50
o F – Triggerd, short term play looking for 14, 15.75 and finally 18
o JWN – triggered, looking for 66.19
o M – triggered, 23.4, 31, 38
o WBA – 55.93 – next stops 60, 64 area
o APA – trigger point 22.48
o DVN – 27.32
o RIG – 4.21
o XOM – triggered on daily, shaort term target is 70
o BMY – triggered, look to 76 area
o AAL – triggered
o ALK – triggered
o CAT – 245.78
o DE – 386.68
o GE – 13.59
o LUV – 62.58
o UAL – triggered
o FCX – triggered on the Daily, looking to 57
o GDXJ – triggerd
o WPM – triggered

14 June Observations

Inside Week:

ABT
BB – possible 22 reversal setting up on Daily
CGC – 22 reversal on Daily triggerd on 11 Jun
FEYE – very interesting spot
GPS
NUE – possible 22 reversal on Daily
QCOM – inside Daily as well as weekly, move above 136.68

Weekly Bull Reversal:

AAPL
ABBV – possible Daily continuation
INTC
MSFT

Daily Reversal:

EA
GPS
NIO
PENN
PLTR
SHAK
SHOP
TWTR

Check XLF and the banks. Check possible Daily reversal setups forming in oil stocks and names like
NCLH. AMZN possible, IQ, FB, BYND, AMAT
21 June Observations

- Possible Trades
o M – over 18.33
o NCLH – intraday reversal above 30.84. RCL reversal above 86.63. CCL above 28.52
o SPG – reversal over 128.21
o BMY – above 66.73
o BA – 239.31
o SAVE – 33.62
o TWTR – 60.97
o BB/NIO/NVDA possibles
- Other looks
o Industrials and Financials are performing well today, however most of these situations are
not in Phase C/D but have experienced sharp declines. We must wait for prices to come
back and test or form a proper LPS type of structure. Buying now would be buying a local
shakeout, which while valid, is higher risk.

28 June Observations

- DIS
- FEYE
- BYND
- RIOT
- BMY

30 June

- HD 20 Aug 370 calls

- Add to AAPL 20 Aug 150 Calls
- Add to AMD 16 Jul 95 calls
- RIOT 20 Aug 55 calls
- Reevaluate SNAP position