Discrete

Probability
Distributions
 Learning Objectives
In this Lecture, you learn:
 The properties of a probability distribution

 To compute the expected value and variance of a

probability distribution
 To compute probabilities from the binomial distribution

 How the binomial distribution can be used to solve

business problems
 Definitions
Random Variables

 A random variable represents a possible

numerical value from an uncertain event.

 Discrete random variables produce outcomes

that come from a counting process (e.g. number
of classes you are taking).

 Continuous random variables produce

outcomes that come from a measurement (e.g.
your annual salary, or your weight).
 Definitions
Random Variables

Random
Variables

Ch. 5 Discrete Continuous Ch. 6

Random Variable Random Variable
Copyright ©2013 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall Chap 5-5
 Discrete Random Variables
 Can only assume a countable number of values
Examples:

 Roll a die twice

Let X be the number of times 4 occurs
(then X could be 0, 1, or 2 times)

 Toss a coin 5 times.

Let X be the number of heads
(then X = 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, or 5)
 Probability Distribution For A
Discrete Random Variable
 A probability distribution for a discrete random
variable is a mutually exclusive listing of all
possible numerical outcomes for that variable and
a probability of occurrence associated with each
outcome.
Number of Classes Taken Probability
2 0.20
3 0.40
4 0.24
5 0.16
 Example of a Discrete Random
Variable Probability Distribution

Experiment: Toss 2 Coins. Let X = # heads.

4 possible outcomes
Probability Distribution
X Value Probability
T T
0 1/4 = 0.25

T H 1 2/4 = 0.50
2 1/4 = 0.25

H T
Probability

0.50

0.25
H H
0 1 2 X
 Discrete Random Variables
Expected Value (Measuring Center)
 Expected Value (or mean) of a discrete
random variable (Weighted Average)
N
  E(X)   xi P( X  xi )
i 1

X P(X=xi)
 Example: Toss 2 coins, 0 0.25
X = # of heads, 1 0.50
compute expected value of X: 2 0.25

E(X) = ((0)(0.25) + (1)(0.50) + (2)(0.25))

= 1.0
 Discrete Random Variables
Measuring Dispersion
 Variance of a discrete random variable
N
σ 2   [x i  E(X)]2 P(X  x i )
i 1

 Standard Deviation of a discrete random variable

N
σ  σ2   i
[x
i 1
 E(X)]2
P(X  x i )

where:
E(X) = Expected value of the discrete random variable X
xi = the ith outcome of X
P(X=xi) = Probability of the ith occurrence of X
 Discrete Random Variables
Measuring Dispersion
(continued)

 Example: Toss 2 coins, X = # heads,

compute standard deviation (recall E(X) = 1)

σ  xi  E(X)] P(X  x i )2

σ  (0  1)2 (0.25)  (1 1)2 (0.50)  (2  1)2 (0.25)  0.50  0.707

Possible number of heads

= 0, 1, or 2
 Developing Discrete Probability
Distributions

Probability distributions can be estimated from relative

frequencies. Consider the discrete (countable) number of
televisions per household (X) from Malaysia survey data
1,218 ÷ 101,501 = 0.012

e.g. P(X=4) = P(4) = 0.076 = 7.6%

 Questions you might want answered
E.g. what is the probability there is at least one television but
no more than three in any given household?

“at least one television but no more than three”

P(1 ≤ X ≤ 3) = P(1) + P(2) + P(3) = .319 + .374 + .191 = .884
 Developing Discrete Probability
Distributions
Techniques covered in the Probability lecture (Probability
tree) can be used to develop probability distributions,
Example:
A mutual fund sales person knows that there is 20%
chance of closing a sale on each call she makes.

What is the probability distribution of the number of

sales if she plans to call three customers?
Random Variable = X = # Sales Made in 3 Attempts

Let S denote probability of closing a sale P(S)=.20

Thus SC is not closing a sale, and P(SC)=.80
 Another Approach: Tree Diagram
Developing a Probability Distribution…
Sales Call 1 Sales Call 2 Sales Call 3
(.2)(.2)(.8)= .032

P(S)=.2 SSS
P(S)=.2 X P(x)
P(SC)=.8 S S SC
P(S)=.2 S SC S 3 .23 = .008
P(S)=.2
P(SC)=.8 2 3(.032)=.096
P(SC)=.8 S SC SC 1 3(.128)=.384
P(S)=.2 SC S S
0 .83 = .512
P(SC)=.8 P(S)=.2
P(SC)=.8 SC S SC
P(S)=.2 SC SC S
P(SC)=.8
P(SC)=.8 SC SC SC
P(X=2) is illustrated here…
 Sample Space: List of all possible outcomes

S1S2S3 : P(X = 3) = (.2)*(.2)*(.2) = 0.008 : P(3) = .008

SSSC : P(X = 2) = (.2)*(.2)*(.8) = 0.032
SSCS : P(X = 2) = (.2)*(.8)*(.2) = 0.032 : P(2) = .032+.032+.032
SCSS : P(X = 2) = (.8)*(.2)*(.2) = 0.032 (Additive Law)
SSCSC : P(X = 1) = (.2)*(.8)*(.8) = 0.128
SCSSC : P(X = 1) = (.8)*(.2)*(.8) = 0.128 : P(1) = .128+.128+.128
SCSCS : P(X = 1) = (.8)*(.8)*(.2) = 0.128 (Additive Law)
SCSCSC : P(X = 0) = (.8)*(.8)*(.8) = 0.512 : P(0) = .512
 Final Discrete Probability Distribution
X 0 1 2 3

P(X) 0.512 0.384 0.096 0.008

The mean of a discrete random variable is the weighted average of
all of its values. The weights are the probabilities. This parameter is
also called the expected value of X and is represented by E(X).

The variance is:

The standard deviation is

 Computing Mean, Variance, and Std. Dev.
for Discrete Random Variable

X 0 1 2 3
P(X) 0.512 0.384 0.096 0.008

Mean = 0*(.512) + 1*(.384) + 2*(.096) + 3*(.008)

= 2.328

Variance = (0-2.3)2*(.512) + (1-2.3)2*(.384)

+ (2-2.3)2*(.096) + (3-2.3)2*(.008)
= 2.71+ .65 + .009 + .004 = 3.373
Std. Dev. = SQRT(3.373) = 1.84

We are as smart as the goddess of statistics now, since we know

the true mean, variance, and standard deviation of the
population.
 Exercise 1
Suppose 20% of the public prefer pepsi as their soft drink of choice. If a
random sample of six people is chosen, the number of pepsi drinkers could
range from 0 to 6. Shown here are the possible numbers of pepsi drinkers in
a sample of 6 people and the probability of that number of pepsi drinkers
occurring in the sample. Use the data to determine the mean number of
pepsi drinkers in the sample of 6 people and compute the standard deviation.
Number of Pepsi Probability
Drinkrs
0 .262
1 .393
2 .246
3 .082
4 .015
5 .002
6 .000
 Exercise 2
Number of P(X) How many credit cards do you have in your wallet?
Credit Cards According to a survey by Ipsos, a large survey
(X) research company, 26% of adults in the US reported
having one or two, 20% three or four, 15% five or
0 .26 more and 1% reported “not sure”. Suppose the
1 .22 following table contains the complete probability
distribution for the number of credit cards owned by
2 .16 adults in the US.
3 .12
Questions
4 .08 1. Compute the mean
5 .06 number of credit cards
owned by the US
6 .04 adults.
7 .03 2. Compute the standard
deviation.
8 .02
9 .01
 Exercise 3
The following table contains the probability distribution for the number of traffic
accidents daily in KK CITY

Number of Accident P(X) Questions

Daily (X) 1. Compute the mean
0 .10 number of accident per
1 .20 day.
2. Compute the standard
2 .45
deviation.
3 .15
4 .05
5 .05
 Exercise 4
The manager of a large computer network has developed the following
probability distribution of the number of interruption per day.

Interruption (X) P(X) Questions

1. Compute the expected
0 .32 number of interruption
1 .35 per day.
2. Compute the standard
2 .18
deviation.
3 .08
4 .04
5 .02
6 .01
 Probability Distributions
Probability
Distributions

Discrete Continuous
Probability Probability
Distributions Distributions

Binomial Normal

Poisson
 Binomial Distribution

• The binomial distribution is the probability

distribution that results from doing a “binomial
experiment”.
• Mathematical model/expression that
represents a variable of interest. Binomial
experiments have the following properties:
Assumption of the Binomial Distribution
1. Fixed number of trials, represented as n.
2. Each trial has two possible outcomes, a “success” and a “failure”.
3. P(success)=p (and thus: P(failure)=1–p), for all trials.
4. The trials are independent, which means that the outcome of one
trial does not affect the outcomes of any other trials.
 Success and Failure…

…are just labels for a binomial experiment, there is no value

judgment implied. You may define either one of the 2 possible
outcomes as “Success”
Some Example of Binomial Random Experiment
1. a coin flip will result in either heads or tails. If we define “heads” as
success then necessarily “tails” is considered a failure.
2. Conducting a urine test on 50 students, either the result of the test :
positive or negative.
3. Launching a firecracker: pops or fails to pop.
4. A patient get an infection during an operation or does not get an
infection
 Some example

The random variable of a binomial experiment is defined as the

number of successes, X, in the n trials, where the probability of
success on a single trial is p.

E.g. flip a fair coin 10 times…

1) Fixed number of trials  n=10
2) Each trial has two possible outcomes  {heads (success), tails
(failure)}
3) P(success)= 0.50; P(failure)=1–0.50 = 0.50 
4) The trials are independent  (i.e. the outcome of heads on the
first flip will have no impact on subsequent coin flips).

Hence flipping a coin ten times is a binomial experiment since all

conditions were met.
 Binomial Distribution [formula]

The binomial random variable (# of successes in n trials) can take on

values 0, 1, 2, …, n. Thus, its a discrete random variable.
Once we know a random variable is binomial, we can calculate the
probability associated with each value of the random variable from the
binomial distribution:

for x=0, 1, 2, …, n

x = # successes and n-x = # failures

 Counting Techniques
Rule of Combinations

 The number of combinations of selecting X

objects out of n objects is

n!
n Cx 
x! (n  x)!
where:
n! =(n)(n - 1)(n - 2) . . . (2)(1)
X! = (X)(X - 1)(X - 2) . . . (2)(1)
0! = 1 (by definition)
 Example 1

A Banker survey found that 65% of all financial

consumers were very satisfied with their primary
financial institution. Suppose that 25 financial
consumers are sampled and if the survey still holds
true today. What is the probability that exactly 19 are
very satisfied with their financial institution?
Suggested answer:
The value of p = 0.65 (very satisfied), the value of q = 1 – p = 0.35
(not very satisfied), n =25 and x =19
Therefore ;
=[ n! /x!(n-x)!]*p^x * q^n-x
=(177,100)(.00027884)(.00183827) = .0908
 Example 2

According to the Malaysian Statistical Dept, approximately

6% of all workers is KK, Sabah are unemployed. In
conducting a random telephone survey in KK, what is
the probability of getting two or fewer unemployed
workers in a sample of 20?

Suggested Answer:-
This problem must be worked as the union of 3 problems.
1. X=0, 2. X=1 & 3. X=2; where p=.06, q=0.94 and n =20

X=0 X=1 X=2 =

.2901 + .3703 + .2246 = .8850
 Example 3

Adam is a student taking a statistics course BT1043. Adam

is not a good student. He does not read the textbook before
class, does not do homework and regularly misses class.
Adam intends to rely on luck to pass the next quiz. The quiz
consists of 10 multiple choice questions. Each question has
five possible answers, only one which is correct. Adam
plans to guess the answer to each question.

What is the probability that Adam gets no answers correct?

P(X=0) = P(0) =
What is the probability that Adam gets two answers correct?
P(X=2) = P(2) =
 Suggested Answer

n=10, and P(success) = .20

What is the probability that Adam gets no answers correct?
I.e. # success, x, = 0; hence we want to know P(x=0)

Adam has about an 11% chance of getting no answers correct

using the guessing strategy.
 Suggested Answer…

n=10, and P(success) = .20

What is the probability that Pat gets two answers correct?
I.e. # success, x, = 2; hence we want to know P(x=2)

Adam has about a 30% chance of getting exactly two answers

correct using the guessing strategy.
 Cumulative Probability…
“Find the probability that Adam fails the quiz”

If a grade on the quiz is less than 50% (i.e. 5 questions

out of 10), that’s considered a failed quiz.

P(fail quiz) = P(X < 4) = P(0)+P(1)+P(2)+P(3)+P(4)

Called a cumulative probability, that is, P(X ≤ x)

Note: Calculating all these individual probabilities would be tedious

and time consuming, however, the Binomial tables at back of book
gives you the cumulative probabilities [n=10, p=0.2, x=4]
Calculate Individual Probabilities and Add Up!
P(X ≤ 4) = P(0) + P(1) + P(2) + P(3) + P(4)

We already know P(0) = .1074 and P(2) = .3020. Using

the binomial formula to calculate the others:
P(1) = .2684 , P(3) = .2013, and P(4) = .0881

Hense P(X ≤ 4) = .1074 + .2684 + … + .0881 = .9672

OR

Use binomial tables at back of book for n=10, p=0.2,

and x=4 “Next Slide”
 Binomial Table…
“What is the probability that Adam fails the quiz”?
i.e. what is P(X ≤ 4), given P(success) = .20 and n=10 ?

P(X ≤ 4) = .967
 Binomial Table…
“What is the probability that Pat gets no answers correct?”
i.e. what is P(X = 0), given P(success) = .20 and n=10 ?

P(X = 0) = P(X ≤ 0) = .107

 Binomial Table…
“What is the probability that Pat gets two answers correct?”
i.e. what is P(X = 2), given P(success) = .20 and n=10 ?

P(X = 2) = P(X≤2) – P(X≤1) = .678 – .376 = .302

remember, the table shows cumulative probabilities…
 Binomial Distribution…
As you might expect, statisticians have
determined formulas for the mean, variance, and
standard deviation of a binomial random variable.
They are:

Previous example: n=10, p=0.2

μ = n*p = 10*0.2 = 2
σ2 = n*p*(1-p) = 10*0.2*0.8= 1.6
σ = SQRT(1.6) = 1.26
 Exercise 1
Accuracy of taking orders at the drive-through window is an important
feature for fast-food chains. Each month QSR Magazine, publishes
the results of its surveys. Accuracy is measured as the percentage
of orders consisting of main item, side item and drink that a filled
correctly. In a recent month, suppose the percentage of correct
orders of this type filled at Burger King was approximately 88%.
If a sample of 3 order is taken .
1. What are the mean and standard deviation of the binomial
distribution for the number of order filled accurately?.
2. Suppose that you and two friends go to the drive-through window
at Burger king, and each of you places an order of the type just
mentions. What are the probabilities that :-
i. all three will be filled accurately
ii. none of the three
iii. at least two of the three will be filled correctly?
 Suggested Answer
P =.88, n=3
1. What are the mean and standard deviation of the binomial
distribution for the number of order filled correctly?.
Mean = np = .88 x 3 = 2.64
S.D = (np(1-q))^1/2 = (3).88*.12)^1/2 = 0.563
1. Suppose that you and two friends go to the drive-through window
at Burger king, and each of you places an order of the type just
mentions. What are the probabilities that :-
i. all three will be filled accurately
P(X=3) = 0.6815
ii. none of the three
P(X=0) = 0.0017
iii. at least two of the three will be filled correctly?
P(X> 2) = P(X=2) + P(X=3)
= 0.2788 + 0.6815 = 0.9603
 Exercise 2

Of the 18,000,000 part-time workers in the Klang, 20%

participate in retirement benefit. A group of 5 people is
to be randomly selected from this group, and the
discrete random variable is x = the number of persons
in the group who participate in retirement benefit.

1. What is the expected value of x?

2. What is the probability that the group will include exactly two
participants?
3. For each of the possible value of x, what is the probability that
exactly this number of people out of the five will be participants?
4. What is the probability that the group will include at least three
persons who are participants?
 Suggested answer:
1. What is the expected value of x?
mean = np = 5(.2) = 1.

2. What is the probability that the group will include exactly two
participants?
P(x=2) = .205

3. For each of the possible value of x, what is the probability that exactly
this number of people out of the five will be participants?
P(x=0)=.328; P(x=1)=.410; P(x=2)=.205; P(x=3)=.051;
P(x=4)=.006 & P(x=5)=.000
E(x) = 0(.0328) + 1(.410) + 2(.205) + 3(.051) + 4(.006) + 5(.000)
= .997 = mean [differ due to rounding of ind. Prob.)
4. What is the probability that the group will include at least three persons
who are participants?
P(x> 3) = .057
 Exercise 3

A manufacturer uses a production process that

produces 20% defective items.
a. If 5 units are produced and inspected, what is
the probability of none of them being
defective? Of 3 units being defective? Of all 5
being defective?
b. What is the probability of at most 1 unit being
defective? Of 2 or 3 units being defective? Of
at least 3 units being defective?
 Suggested answer:

a. P(x=0) = .3277
P(x=3) = .0512
P(x=5) = .0003
b. P(at most 1 unit being defective) =
P(x=0) + P(x=1) = .3277 + .4096 = .7373
P(2 or 3 being defective) =
P(x=2) +P(x=3) = .2048 + .0512 = .256
P(at least 3 units being defective) =
P(x=3) + P(x=4) + P(x=5) =
.0512 + .0064 +.0003 = .0579
 Exercise 4

You have 5 workers and suppose the probability

that any worker arrives late is 0.20. What is the
probability that;-
a. None of the workers are late today.
Ans: 0.3277
a. Exactly one of the workers will arrive late
today?
Ans: 0.4096
 Exercise 5

Industry standard suggest that 10% of new cars

require warranty service within the 1st year.
Your company sold 20 new cars yesterday.
a. What is the probability that none of the cars require
warranty service?
P(x=0) =
a. What is the probability that exactly 2 cars require
warranty service?
P(x=2) =
a. Compute the mean and standard deviation of this
probability distribution.
meam = np; Std Dev. = (np(1-p)^1/2
 Exercise 6

A telemarketer makes an average of 6 calls per

hour and is able to make a sale on 30% of the
calls. During the next 2 hours. Find:-
a. The probability of making no sales.
P(x=0) =
a. The probability of making exactly 2 sales.
P(x=2) =
a. the mean number of sales in the two-hour period.
meam = np:
 Using Excel For The
Binomial Distribution (n = 4, π = 0.1)
The Poisson Distribution
 Poisson Probability Distribution

- is a discrete probability distribution and refers to the number of

events (successes) within a specific time period or region of space.
- Named for Simeon Poisson (1781 – 1840)

In other words, it is defined as the number of occurrences of a

-
specific event within a specific time or space.

- For example:
• The number of cars arriving at a service station in 1 hour. (The
interval of time is 1 hour.)
• The number of accidents in 1 day on a particular stretch of
highway. (The interval is defined by both time, 1 day, and
space, the particular stretch of highway.)
 Poisson Probability
Distribution…
The probability that a Poisson random variable
assumes a value of x is given by:

Note: μ is the only parameter and e is the

natural logarithm base.
 Poisson Probability Distribution

The random variable X is said to follow the Poisson probability

distribution if it has the probability function:
e   x
P( x)  , for x  0, 1,2,...
where x!
• P(x) = the probability of x successes over a given period of
time or space, given 
•  = the expected number of successes per time or space
unit;  > 0
• e = 2.71828 (the base for natural logarithms)
• The mean and variance of the Poisson probability distribution are:
 x  E( X )   and  x2  E[( X   ) 2 ]  
 Example 1

Suppose bank customers arrive randomly on weekday

afternoons at an average of 3.2 customer per every 4
minutes.
1. What is the probability that exactly 5 customers
arriving in a 4-minutes?

Suggested Answer:

P(X=5) = (e^-3.2)(3.2^5)/ 5! =(335.54)(.0408)/120 =.1141

 Example 2

The number of work related injuries per month in your

manufacturing plant is known to follow Poisson distribution
with a mean of 2.5 work-related injuries a month.
1. What is the probability that is an given no work related
injury occur?
2. What is the probability that at least two work related injury
occur?
Suggested Answer:-
P(X=0)= e^-2.5 (2.5)^0 / 0! = 1/(2.71828)^2.5 (1) = 0.0821

P(X> 2) = 1-[P(X=0) +P(X=1)

= 1-[0.0821+0.205]
= 0.7126
 Example 3

A statistics instructor has observed that the number of typographical

errors in new editions of textbooks varies considerably from book to
book. After some analysis, he concludes that the number of errors in
Poisson distributed with a mean of 1.5 per 100 pages. The instructor
randomly selects 100 pages of a new book. What is the probability that
there are no typographical error?
That is, what is P(X=0) given that = 1.5?

e   x e-1.51.50
P(0)    .2231
x! 0!
“There is about a 22% chance of finding zero errors”
 Exercise 3: Cont….

Suppose that the instructor has just received a copy of a new statistics book.
He notices that there are 400 pages.
a. What is the probability that there are no typos?
b. What is the probability that there are five or fewer typos.
Thus, knowing an error rate of 1.5 typos per 100 pages, we can determine a
mean value for a 400 page book as:

=1.5(4) = 6 typos / 400 pages.

 Example 3 [cont]…

For a 400 page book, what is the probability that there

are no typos?

P(X=0) =

“there is a very small chance there are no typos”

 Example 3..[Cont…]

For a 400 page book, what is the probability that

there are five or less typos?

P(X≤5) = P(0) + P(1) + … + P(5)

This is rather tedious to solve manually. A better
alternative is to refer to Table 2 in Appendix B…

“there is about a 45% chance there are 5 or less typos”

…k=5, =6, and P(X ≤ k) = .446
 Example 4

Suppose that the mean number of customers who arrive

per minute at the bank during the noon-1pm hour is
equal to 3.0.
1. What is the probability that in a given minute, exactly two
customer s will arrive?
P(x=2) = [e^-3(3)^2]/2! = 9/(2.71828)^3(2) = 0.2240

2. What is the probability that more than two customers will arrive in a
given minute?
P(x>2) = P(x=3)+P(x=4)+…+P(x=∞)
Therefore:
P(x>2) = 1 –[P(x=0)+P(x=1)+P(x=2)+P(x=3)
= 1 – [.0498 + 0.1494 + 0.2240]
= 0.5768
 Exercise 1

The number of work-related injuries per month in

your manufacturing plant is known to follow a
Poisson distribution with a mean of 2.5 work-
related injuries a month.
1. What is the probability that in a given month
no work-related injuries occur?
Ans: 0.0821

1. What is the probability that in a given month

at least one work –related injury occur?
Ans: 0.9179
 Exercise 2

In an Urban country, health care officials anticipate that

the number of births this year will be the same at last year,
when 438 children were born – an average of 438/365, or
1.2 births per days. Daily births has been distributed
according to that Poisson distribution.
1. What is the mean of the distribution?
2. For any given day, what is the probability that no
children will be born?
3. Calculate each of the following probability and
determine the mean; P(x=1); P(x=2); P(x=3); P(x=4);
P(x=5); P(x=6); P(x=7)
4. What is the probability that no more than one birth will
occur on a given day?
 Exercise 3

Suppose bank customers arrive randomly on weekday

afternoons at an average of 3.2 customers every minutes.
1. What is the probability of exactly 5 customers arriving
in a 4-minutes interval on a weekend?
2. What is the probability of having more than 3
customers in a 4-minute interval on a weekday
afternoon?
3. What is the probability of getting exactly 10 customers
during an 8-minute interval?
hint: mean 3.2 customers every 4 minutes
mean 6.4 customers every 8 minutes
 Using Poisson Tables
(Available On Line)


X 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90

0 0.9048 0.8187 0.7408 0.6703 0.6065 0.5488 0.4966 0.4493 0.4066

1 0.0905 0.1637 0.2222 0.2681 0.3033 0.3293 0.3476 0.3595 0.3659
2 0.0045 0.0164 0.0333 0.0536 0.0758 0.0988 0.1217 0.1438 0.1647
3 0.0002 0.0011 0.0033 0.0072 0.0126 0.0198 0.0284 0.0383 0.0494
4 0.0000 0.0001 0.0003 0.0007 0.0016 0.0030 0.0050 0.0077 0.0111
5 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 0.0002 0.0004 0.0007 0.0012 0.0020
6 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 0.0002 0.0003
7 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

Example: Find P(X = 2 |  = 0.50)

e  λ λ x e 0.50(0.50) 2
P(X  2 | 0.50)    0.0758
x! 2!