CONTINGENCY ANALYSIS

What is Contingency?

It is loss or failure of a small part of the power system or loss of individual equipment such as
generator or transformers. It is also called unplanned outage.

Contingency Analysis in Power System:

Contingency Analysis (CA) is a "what if" scenario that evaluates, provides and prioritizes the
impacts on an electric power system whenever typically unplanned problems or outages
occur [2]. Contingency analysis is used to calculate violations[1].

Significance of Contingency Analysis:

Power system is operated such that they maintain system security. There should not be any
reliability violations in real time or likely contingencies such as:

 Equipment failure
 Loss of generating unit
 Load shedding
 Loss of transmission or sub-transmission component (eg: transmission line,
transformer etc.)

Therefore, power system planning and operation requires study of outages and its severity.
On planning side it is typically done with all possible contingencies and on operations side
real time data is used to analyze some specific contingencies that are known to create
problems under given operating condition.In short contingency analysis is performed so that
precautionary measures and protective devices may be selected based on the severity and to
avoid inconvenience in future.

Types of Contingency Analysis:

There are two types of contingency analysis that can be done in any typical electrical system.

1. Probabilistic
2. Statistical

Probabilistic – Reliability Assessment Module

In probabilistic contingency analysis we observe failure rates of components and various

contingencies or combination of contingencies to give a probabilistic result of what is going
to happen in the system.
Statistical – Contingency Assessment Module

Statistical Contingency Analysis takes information and run a contingency power in order to
determine the effect of various outages in the system.

Contingency analysis is further classified into two categories

 N-1 contingency
 N-2 contingency

N-1 Contingency:

It is also known as primary contingency. A loss of one that occurs first. A Primary Contingency
may be a planned or unplanned event [6].

N-2 Contingency:

It is also known as secondary contingency. A contingency that occurs after the Primary Contingency.
This is usually an unplanned event [6].

ReliabilityAssessment in ETAP:
The reliability assessment concentrates mainly on the use of probabilistic states of
components in generation and transmission system to evaluate overall reliability [5]. First we
performed reliability assessment on our 11 bus system by Prabha Kundur on ETAP [4].

Methodology:

Step 01: Firstly we selected the reliability assessment module from ETAP toolbar

Step 02: Then we checked out of service option of T2 and Bus 6 in order to observe the
effect of this outage on our loads specifically
Step 03: From the display box we selected our desired options.

Step 04: Run Reliability Assessment

Discussion on Results:
From the results it can be seen that there are 35853.64 MW/yr that are not delivered to load4
and 29379.37 MW/yr that are not delivered to load2. Therefore, reliability assessment is a
powerful tool to estimate the cost and helps to observe the reliability of the system.

Contingency Analysis in ETAP:

ETAP Contingency Analysis allows users to define component outage and failure
scenarios. From the user-defined scenarios, system N-1 and N-2 contingencies are studied.
ETAP contingency analysis employs a fast screening or ranking algorithm to select a
ranked contingency list for detailed studies [3].

Methodology:

 Disable a particular part and evaluate network stability using contingency power
flow.
 Once the contingency is considered the post contingency criteria is needed to take
into account. We want to make sure that:
1. There should be no transmission line / transformer limit violations.
2. Bus voltages should be within acceptable limits.
 With the help of contingency analysis in ETAP engineers can rank the system and
prioritize planning and improvements.

Key Points:

 Number of equipment or branches disabled determines the (N-x) contingency

analysis. Where, x is the no of equipment being out aged at the same time.
 N-1= Loss of single equipment
 N-2= Loss of two equipments simultaneously

Steps to perform contingency analysis on ETAP

 N-1 CONTIGENCY ASSESMENT:

Step 01: Firstly we selected the contingency analysis button from ETAP toolbar

Step 02: From CONTINGENCY ANALYSIS STUDY CASE we created an outage on

Bus5
Step 03: Click on RUN CONTINGENCY ANALYSIS and observe the results.

Results as Observed from REPORT SUMMARY in ETAP:

Loading Violations: As it can be seen from the summary below that outage of bus5
doesn’t cause any loading violation.
Voltage Violation:As it can be seen from the report that bus5 undergoes under voltage due
to outage.

When we run contingency analysis load flow the outage of bus5 is clearly indicated by a
cross sign on the system.

Performance Index: Contingency ranking using the performance index is a method for the
line outages in a power system, which ranks the highest performance index line first and
proceeds in a descending manner based on the calculated PI for all the line outages. This
helps to take the prior action to keep the system secure [7].
Now let’s discuss in detail various parameters which are mentioned in above summary
report

 Voltage Security PI (V/Vsp): Voltage performance index is calculated which

indicates the voltage limit violation at all the load buses due to the line contingencies
[7].
 Active Power PI (ΔP): Active power PI indicates the Active power limit violation.
 Reactive Power PI (ΔQ): Reactive power PI indicates the Reactive power limit
violation.
 Branch loading PI (S/Ssp): It indicates the branch loading violation.
 Overall PI (OPI): Contingencies are ranked based on the overall performance index
(OPI) which is calculated according to the values of the performance indices obtained.

Losses: With the loss of bus5 we lose approx 5MW of generation.

Similarly we created an outage on bus8 and T (2) and compared the contingencies of all the
three outages i.e.: bus5, bus8 and T (2).

REPORT SUMMARY FOR THE OUTAGES ON DIFFERENT DEVICES:

  Loading selection:

It indicates that the outage of transformer T

(2) is so severe that ETAP has failed to
converge the case and perform calculation.

 Voltage Selection:

Here we observe the post contingency violation on bus 8 which is showing critical under
voltage issue.

By running the contingency, outage at bus 8 observe in the system model with cross sign
means bus 8 disable or out of service.
  Performance Index:

Here we sort our outages according to the highest performance index to lowest.

 Losses:

 N-2 CONTIGENCY ASSESMENT:

STEP 01: We add all the devices for the N-1 and the N-2 outage in the outage list.
STEP 02: Click on RUN CONTINGENCY ANALYSIS and examine the results.
REPORT SUMMARY:

By keenly observing this loading summary, some combination of N-1 outage and N-2 outage
causing loading violation and some are not causing any violation. Moreover some
combination lead to such a severe outage that the ETAP is unable to converge.

By examine this voltage summary, the combination in which N-1 contingency occur at bus 4
and N-2 contingency occur at bus 2. In this case, several busses which include bus 2, 4, 6, 7,
8, 9 and 10 dealing with under voltage issue in system.
In order to observe this case in our modeled system, RUN the load flow for contingency. So
here we can see that the bus 2 and 4 is out of service while some more busses are indicated
with red color as dealing with under voltage issue.

Here we consider an another case for N-2 contingency in which contingency occur on 10km
line and bus 6 that causing some critical type of under voltage problem on some busses.
In such case in which the bus 6 and transmission line of 10km is disable, the whole
highlighted portion becomes out of service or cut down from the system.

Contingency Ranking:
As contingency ranking depends on performance index that tell the severity if outage on the
system, so here we consider the most severe outage combination by sorting V/Vs in
descending order.

In order to examine the severity of this outages combination, we click on enabling

contouring.

The whole red portion shows the severity and the outages on the system in this case.
In this condition we have taken into an account the least severe outage combination in
accordance to performance index.

By observing this least severe case, we again run load flow for contingency and for more
clear examination also enable contouring option.
Summary:
 STABILITY ANALYSIS

Power System Stability:

“The ability of the system to return to its normal operating conditions after having undergone
to some disturbance such as switching on and off load or due to some fault.”

It is important to maintain the synchronism of bus with the generators over the entire duration
for stable operation. Due to this reason power system stability is also known as Synchronous
Stability.

Types of Stability:

 Steady State Stability:

The ability of the power system to regain synchronism after slow and small disturbances such
as gradual power changes is called steady state stability [8].

 Dynamic Stability:

It is the ability of power system to maintain stability under continuous small disturbances
such as random fluctuation in loads.

 Transient Stability:

The capability of power system to maintain stability after major disturbances such as line
switching, loss of generators and faults is referred to as transient stability.

Stability Analysis:
Stability analysis is done to ensure whether the system will regain its normal operation after
the occurrence of small or large disturbance.

Importance of Stability Studies:

Stability studies are conducted when new generating and transmitting facilities are
planned.The studies are helpful in determining such things as the nature of relaying system
needed, critical clearing time of circuit breakers and voltage level of system [8].

Transient Stability Analysis in ETAP:

ETAP allows its users to observe the effects of transient stability and severity of large
disturbances in power systems so that precautionary measures can be taken. Thus, we
performed transient stability on our existing system to check the stability of our system.

Methodology:

Step 01: Firstly we selected the TRANSIENT STABILITY button from ETAP toolbar

Step 02: Select desired options on TRANSIENT STABILITY STUDY CASE

So, we generate a event of three phase fault at bus 1. As 3 phase fault causing certain voltage
drop near to swing generator so we wish to observe the transient stability of the system in this
case.

This shows that fault will occur at 1sec and it

will be cleared at 1.2secs.
STEP 03: Mark to those devices whose behavior we want to inspect through plot in case of 3
phase fault.

Here first we choose the swing generator as it is the most near device to bus 1.

Moreover we select bus 1 that is dealing with symmetrical fault and also bus 5 and 6 are
taken into consider to observe the impact on system.

Simulation on ETAP:
By simulating transient stability analysis on right hand side, the model of system showing the
active and reactive power, speed and also power angle.

 At 0 sec:

After simulation, we get a slider whose basic function is to show the action on the faulted
device at the specific time. So at 0 sec means at initial condition, the action list is empty as
the system is working in normal operating condition.

 At 1.001 sec:

By moving the slider to the time after the 1 sec, transient stability action list is showing a
three phase fault also note down the active and reactive power at bus 1 which become zero
due to fault and this fault also effect the speed of generator by comparing this condition to the
initial one.
  At 1.2001 sec:

As moving forward to slider to the time after 1.2 sec then it states to clear fault. So in this
scenario bus have again some power.
  At 9.5 sec:

We can simulate this by observing and comparing the values of speed and power to the initial
values that after 9.5 sec the system is still not stabilize.

Plots of Swing generator:

 Current versus Time:

 Speed versus Time:

Plot of bus 1:

 Voltage versus time:

Result:

From the simulation and plot it is clearly evident that in case of 3 phase fault there will be a
voltage collapse at bus1.Moreover, the system has become unstable because there are many
voltage oscillations. So, it can be concluded that our system will become unstable after the
occurrence of a major fault so we must improve our system.

REFFERENCES:
[1] V. J. Mishra and M. D. Khardenvis, "Contingency analysis of power system," 2012 IEEE
Students' Conference on Electrical, Electronics and Computer Science, Bhopal, India, 2012,
pp. 1-4, doi: 10.1109/SCEECS.2012.6184751.

[2] Contingency Analysis,Etap.Accessed on: March 20,2021.[Online].Available:

https://etap.com/product/contingency-analysis

[3] Contingency Analysis,Etap.Accessed on: March 20,2021.[Online].Available:

https://etap.com/product/contingency-analysis

[4] P. J. P. s. s. Kundur and control, "Power system stability," pp. 7-1, 2007.

[5] T. B. Kumar, M. Ramamoorty, and O. C. J. S. M. Sekhar, "Assessment of Reliability

of Composite Power System Including Smart Grids," p. 99, 2018.
[6] R. Scott and P. Dahman, "N-1-1 contingency analysis using PowerWorld simulator,"
in PowerWorld Client Conf., 2010.
[7] A. A. J. I. r. j. o. e. Abdulrazzaq and technology, "Contingency ranking of power
systems using a performance index," vol. 2, no. 02, pp. 180-183, 2015.
[8] M. Mynuddin, K. Roknuzzaman, P. Biswas, M. J. J. o. E. Tanjimuddin, and P.
Engineering, "Stability study of power system," vol. 4, no. 2, pp. 43-50, 2015.