Expected Sales
Each unit of demand results in either a sale or a lost sale, so
Expected sales + Expected lost sales = Expected demand
We already know expected demand: It is the mean of the demand distribution, js. Rear-
range terms in the above equation and we get
Expected sales = y. — Expected lost salesExpected Leftover Inventory
Expected leftover inventory is the average amount that demand (a random variable) is less
than the order quantity (a fixed threshold). (In contrast, expected lost sales is the average
amount by which demand exceeds the order quantity.)
The following equation is true because every unit purchased is either sold or left over in
inventory at the end of the season:
Expected sales + Expected leftover inventory = Q
Rearrange the above equation to obtain
Expected leftover inventory = Q — Expected salesExpected Profit
We earn Price — Cost on each unit sold and we lose Cost — Salvage value on each unit we
do not sell, so our expected profit is
Expected profit = [(Price — Cost) X Expected sales]
—[(Cost — Salvage value) < Expected leftover inventory]Expected lost sales = o X L(z)
o = Standard deviation of the normal distribution representing demand
L(z) = Loss function with the standard normal distribution