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An Analysis On Coin Flipping Through Empirical and Theoretical Probability by CUDIO Et Al, 2020
An Analysis On Coin Flipping Through Empirical and Theoretical Probability by CUDIO Et Al, 2020
An Analysis On Coin Flipping Through Empirical and Theoretical Probability by CUDIO Et Al, 2020
An Experimental Study
Presented to
by
March 2020
PALAWAN STATE UNIVERSITY
LABORATORY SENIOR HIGH SCHOOL
SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY, ENGINEERING, AND MATHEMATICS
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Title Page i
Table of Contents ii
I. INTRODUCTION
B. Plan of Investigation 2
II. INFORMATION/MEASUREMENTS
B. Data Instruments 3
C. Data Organization 3
D. Analysis of Data 3
E. Mathematical Processes 5
A. Empirical Probability 6
B. Theoretical Probability 7
C. Summary of Results 9
IV. CONCLUSION
A. Validity 11
Appendices
ii
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SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY, ENGINEERING, AND MATHEMATICS
LIST OF TABLES
IID.1 Probability Distribution Table of the Data Obtained from the Experiment 4
LIST OF FIGURES
iii
PALAWAN STATE UNIVERSITY
LABORATORY SENIOR HIGH SCHOOL
SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY, ENGINEERING, AND MATHEMATICS
I. INTRODUCTION
The researchers decided to determine whether the flipping of a coin, a known fair activity, is
affected by social determinants, such as age, gender, and social status. The researchers did this by
simply taking participants off of their respective households. Afterwards, they compared the data
they gathered with Theoretical Probability and realized something out of the said concept.
In addition to this, the researchers also determined what is the Mean Value and Standard
Deviation in flipping a coin ten times. The Mean Value will tell the researchers how many heads a
person can most likely obtain when flipping a coin 10 times, while the Standard Deviation tells
how deviated the values can be from the said Mean Value, which can give the researchers a range
of X which is highly likely to happen.
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LABORATORY SENIOR HIGH SCHOOL
SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY, ENGINEERING, AND MATHEMATICS
B. Plan of Investigation
The researchers collected data from a sample of 50 respondents chosen via the major factor of
convenience, hence, a “Non-Probability Sampling Technique” of Convenient Sampling took place.
More specifically, the respondents to the experiment are those who belong to the household of the
researchers in order to decrease the likeliness of the participant rejecting the participant. This may
bring up misconceptions that the experiment results are less reliable as it is done conducted on
participants who are not fairly-drawn. However, as probability holds true, the flipping of a coin can
only result in either a head or a tail, and there are no other known factors that will increase
likelihood of getting a certain face up when flipping a fair coin. With regards to the flipping of said
coin, we aim to make it standardized by using the BSP-Standardized New Generation 1-Peso Coin.
The researchers conducted a one-to-one experiment with the participants. Then, they tabulated
the information gathered into a handy data record sheet. When the data was gathered, organized,
and processed, all computations have been made. The researchers aimed to determine the mean
value of heads that can be obtained when flipping a coin 10 times. Also, they wanted to determine
a specific range where the majority of the number of heads obtained falls. Hence, concepts and
formulae from Empirical Probability and Theoretical Probability was utilized by the researchers in
order to make the conclusion and overall study more holistic.
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PALAWAN STATE UNIVERSITY
LABORATORY SENIOR HIGH SCHOOL
SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY, ENGINEERING, AND MATHEMATICS
II. INFORMATION/MEASUREMENTS
The researchers gathered the data in such a way that the 50 participants were split among the 6
researchers. Hence, 4 researchers were tasked to conduct the experiment on 8 participants in the
household, while 2 researchers conduct the experiment on 9 participants in the household. The
results were then compiled, organized, and tabulated in order for it to be interpreted accurately.
B. Data Instruments
The researchers made use of a BSP-Standardized New Generation 1-Peso Coin all throughout
the experiment. Also, a record sheet was made to systematically tabulate and organize the results
of the experiment conducted on each participant. In order to obtain a valid reference for the
conclusion, the researchers used Theoretical Probability, as well.
C. Data Organization
The researchers created their own record sheet to input all the data gathered. Once the data was
obtained from the participant, the researcher kept the data and the participants in complete privacy.
In addition to this, the researchers completed the Frequency and Probability Distribution Table
given to them as reference before the experiment began.
D. Analysis of Data
In this section, the researchers searched for the answers to these questions:
In order to answer the questions, the researchers were required to organize the data. From the
project outline given to the researchers and the data they have collected, they completed the
Frequency and Probability Distribution Table.
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SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY, ENGINEERING, AND MATHEMATICS
TABLE IID.1 Probability Distribution Table of the Data Obtained from the Experiment
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FREQUENCY
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
X (NUMBER OF HEADS FLIPPED)
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30%
FREQUENCY
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
X (NUMBER OF HEADS FLIPPED)
From the Graphs above, the researchers inferred that the most frequent number of heads
flipped, X, is 5. In addition to this, the researchers also obtained from Table IID.1 that the Relative
Frequencies, which are actually the Empirical Probability of P(X), all add up to 1 or 100%, like
any other probability situation.
In order to obtain a holistic account on probability in the experiment, the researchers made use
of Theoretical Probability to compare the Empirical Probability determined by the researchers. In
addition to this, this section answers the following questions:
1) On average, how many heads would you expect to come up when tossing a coin?
2) If you tossed the coin 1,000 times, what values of X take on? Which values of C do you
think would occur most frequently?
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LABORATORY SENIOR HIGH SCHOOL
SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY, ENGINEERING, AND MATHEMATICS
A. Empirical Probability
On average, if a person were to flip a coin 10 times, we could expect a certain number of heads
to come up. We shall denote this value as μ, which is the mean value of X.
𝝁 = ∑[𝑋 ∙ 𝑃(𝑋)]
However, a standard deviation still exists, which describes how deviated the data values are.
So, the researchers also determined the said value with the use of the formula
𝝈 = √∑[𝑋 2 ∙ 𝑃(𝑋)] − 𝜇2 .
𝜎 = √∑[𝑋 2 ∙ 𝑃(𝑋)] − 𝜇2
𝜎 2 = ∑[𝑋 2 ∙ 𝑃(𝑋)] − 𝜇2
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LABORATORY SENIOR HIGH SCHOOL
SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY, ENGINEERING, AND MATHEMATICS
B. Theoretical Probability
The total number of outcomes possible to be obtained when flipping a coin 10 times is 210 .
The researchers used the formula:
(10 )
P(X = a) = 𝑎10 , 𝑤ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑒 𝑎 𝜖 𝑍; 0 ≤ 𝑎 ≤ 10
2
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LABORATORY SENIOR HIGH SCHOOL
SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY, ENGINEERING, AND MATHEMATICS
0.25
0.2
Probability
0.15
0.1
0.05
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
X (Number of Heads Flipped)
From the graph, the researchers were able to perceive the equally symmetrical Probability
Distribution that is observed in the activity of flipping 10 coins at a time, this is with the help of
Theoretical Probability. From the Probability Distribution above, the most likely quantity of heads
that a person can obtain when flipping a coin 10 times is 5.
This Probability Distribution Graph is observably a Normal Distribution Curve with μ=5 and
σ²=2.5, denoted as X~N(5,2.5). Therefore, by following its properties:
𝑃(𝜇 − 𝜎 ≤ 𝑋 ≤ 𝜇 + 𝜎) = 68%
𝑃(5 − 1.58 ≤ 𝑋 ≤ 5 + 1.58) = 68%
𝑃(5 − 1.58 ≤ 𝑋 ≤ 5 + 1.58) = 68%
𝑃(3.42 ≤ 𝑋 ≤ 6.58) = 68%
Therefore, it is highly likely, specifically there is a 68% chance, that a person flips an a total
number of heads between 3.42 (approximated via the graph as 4) and 6.58 (approximated via the
graph as 6).
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LABORATORY SENIOR HIGH SCHOOL
SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY, ENGINEERING, AND MATHEMATICS
C. Interpretation of Data
TABLE IIIC.1 Summary of Values and Computations obtained from the Experiment
𝝈 = √𝜎 2 ≈ 𝟏. 𝟗𝟔𝟔𝟏
The table above is the Summary of the Data gathered and obtained by the researchers in order
to answer the guide questions and formulate a generalization or conclusion. It can be observed
above that the Mean Value for X is 5.12, which means that the average number of Heads whenever
a person flips a BSP-Standardized New Generation 1-Peso coin is 5 out of 10 flips. However, due
to the Standard Deviation which is approximately 2, the Mean Value can be deviated by ± 2 of its
value. Hence, the general range for X is at least 3 or at most 7, and when expressed as an inequality,
3 ≤ 𝑋 ≤ 7.
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LABORATORY SENIOR HIGH SCHOOL
SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY, ENGINEERING, AND MATHEMATICS
From Sections IIIA and IIIB, the Mean Value, X, obtained from the two different approaches,
namely, Empirical Probability and Theoretical Probability, are both approximately 5. Also, the
Standard Deviations can also both be approximated (to the nearest integer) to 2.
Therefore, from both approaches, we can conclude that whenever a person flips a coin 10 times,
we could expect it to yield 𝑋 = 5(±2) heads. Hence, the mean X or range number of number heads
is expected to yield at least 3 heads and at most 7 whenever a person flips BSP-Standardized New
Generation 1-Peso Coin 10 times.
If a person hypothetically flips a coin 1000 times, the said person is expected to flip an average
of 5.12 Heads in every 10 Coin Flips. By using this ratio, the researchers found that an average of
512 Heads are expected to be obtained in the said activity. However, there is a Standard Deviation
of 1.9661 in every 10 flips. Hence, from the deviating factor, the researchers set up a range that
there must be at least 315 heads and at most 708 head flips, from the empirical probability obtained
from the Experiment Data Results.
However, when working with Theoretical Probability, we have a different generalization. The
ratio is X = 5 out of 10, according to the Mean Average, denoted by X. From this, we can expect
the Mean Average Heads flipped to be 500. However, there is a deviating factor of 𝝈 = 1.5811.
Therefore, it can be expected that when a coin is flipped 1000 times, it is expected that the X ranges
from 342 to 658 heads flipped.
From the calculations done by the researchers and the conclusions they have obtained, it is
evident that the Experiment followed the Concept of Theoretical Probability of coin flipping.
Because of this, we have fortified further the concept that the activity of flipping a fair coin is an
evenly chanced activity.
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LABORATORY SENIOR HIGH SCHOOL
SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY, ENGINEERING, AND MATHEMATICS
III. CONCLUSION
A. Validity
Coin tossing is an activity done with a fair coin that provides only two possible outcomes,
either a head or a tail. No matter who the participant of the experiment is, the probability remains
the same. Hence, regardless of sampling method, the experiment is considered valid.
In order to fortify this premise, the researchers referred to the use of Theoretical
Probability. From this process, the researchers were able to fully disclose that social status, age,
and the Sampling Method have no effect on the Experiment Results. However, the researchers do
not fully disregard other factors that can affect the Probability of getting a head when flipping a
coin, which gives room for improvement to future experimental analyses similar to this study.
The researchers recommend that future researchers try to delve into the factors that could
possibly affect the result when flipping a coin, specifically height of the participant, height and
trajectory of the flip, the upper face of the coin when flipped, the flick of the finger, the surface
area and weight of the coin, etc.
In addition to this, the researchers would like to suggest that the future researchers create a
varied approach by tasking the participants to flip different coins at a time.
From all the data gathered, the researchers obtained a conclusion that the Empirical Probability
follows approximately the same values as those of Theoretical Probability. Hence, the researchers
concluded that flipping a coin is indeed an evenly-chanced event with equal chances of obtaining
either face upwards. Therefore, we can conclude that when flipping a fair coin 10 times, the mean
value that can be obtained is 5 heads which may most likely deviate to a value not less than 3 or
not greater than 7.
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PALAWAN STATE UNIVERSITY
LABORATORY SENIOR HIGH SCHOOL
SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY, ENGINEERING, AND MATHEMATICS
Appendix A
Record Sheet for Data Gathering
11 H H H H H H T T T H 7
12 H T H T T T H T T H 4
13 T H H T H T H H H H 7
14 T H H H T T T T H H 5
15 T T H H H H T H H H 7
16 T H H H T H T H T T 5
17 H H T T T T H T T T 3
18 T H H H H H H H H T 8
19 T H T H T H H H H T 6
20 H T T H H H T H H T 6
21 T H T H T T H H H T 5
22 H T H T H H H H T H 7
23 H T H T T H T T T T 3
24 T H T T T H H T T T 3
25 T T H T T T T H H H 4
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SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY, ENGINEERING, AND MATHEMATICS
26 T T H H T H H T T T 4
27 H H T H H H T T T T 5
28 T T H T H T H H H H 6
29 T T T H T H H H T H 5
30 H H H H H H H H H T 9
31 H T H T T T H T H H 5
32 H H H T H H T T H H 7
33 T H T H H T T H T H 5
34 T T T H T H T H T T 3
35 H T H H T H H T T T 5
Number of Participants
36 T T H T T H H H T T 4
37 T T H T T T H T H T 3
38 H T T H T H T H H T 5
39 T T H H H T T T T T 3
40 T T H T H H H H T T 5
41 T H T T T T H T T T 2
42 H T H T T H H T H H 6
43 H H T H T H H H H H 8
44 H T T T H H T H H H 6
45 T T T T T T H T T T 1
46 H T H H T T H T T T 4
47 H T T H H H T H H H 7
48 H H H H H H H H H H 10
49 H T H T T T T H T T 3
50 T T T T T T T T T T 0
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LABORATORY SENIOR HIGH SCHOOL
SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY, ENGINEERING, AND MATHEMATICS
Appendix B
Visual Representation of BSP-Standardized New Generation 1-Peso Coin
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