Landscape and Urban Planning 112 (2013) 89-99

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Landscape and Urban Planning

journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/landurbplan

Research paper

A cellular automata-based land use and transport interaction model applied to Jeddah,
Saudi Arabia
Mohammed Aljoufie3’1, Mark Zuidgeestb, Mark Brusselb, Jasper van Vlietc’d, Martin van Maarseveenb
a
Department of Urban and Regional Planning, Faculty of Environmental Design, King Abdulaziz University, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia
b
Department of Urban and Regional Planning and Geo-information Management, Faculty of Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC),
University ofTwente,The Netherlands
c
Research Institute for Knowledge Systems (RIKS), Maastricht, The Netherlands
d
Institute for Environmental Studies and Amsterdam Global Change Institute, VU University Amsterdam,The Netherlands

HIGHLIGHTS

► A CA-based land-use transport interaction model was applied to the city of Jeddah.
► A stage-wise calibration procedure allows calibrating such complex model.
► Results from this model outperform results from a standalone CA-based land-use model.
► This indicates the importance of transport for explaining dynamics in rapidly growing cities.

ARTICLE INFG ABSTRACT

Understanding the interaction between urban land-use change and transport is critical for urban
Article history: plan- ning as well as for transport planning, particularly in the case of rapidly growing and
Received 10 February 2012 motorising cities, such as Jeddah in Saudi Arabia. Dynamic land use and transport interaction models
Received in revised form 22 December2012 provide a good plat- form to study this mutual interaction. In this paper, we introduce one instance of
Accepted 10 January 2013
these models, a cellular automata (CA)-based land-use/transport interaction model (LUTI), which
was applied to the quickly
growing metropolitan area of Jeddah. The model was calibrated using a stage-wise calibration and
Keywords: eval- uated using an independent validation. The CA-based LUTI model outperforms a similar stand-
Urban dynamics alone CA-based model, which indicates that land use and transport interact and that models for
Land-use/transport interaction Calibration understanding urban dynamics benefit from including the feedback between both systems. Such
Validation understanding facili- tates the estimation of future dynamics of land-use change and transport in
Cellular automata cities, and can support the development of alternative spatial plans and policies.
Jeddah © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction
Many cities worldwide are growing rapidly, which leaves urban
planners and transport planners with a continuous challenge of
planning a liveable environment. A quickly growing population,
denser use of space and increased motorisation cause significantly
more traffic, resulting in congestion and a wide range of other effects,
such as air pollution, greenhouse gas emissions and eco- nomic losses.
The transport system is one of the main drivers for urban growth,
through the accessibility and economic opportunity it provides to the
surrounding land and activities (Hall & Pfeiffer, 2000; Hart, 2001;
Meyer & Miller, 2001). Therefore, it is crucial to better understand
urban dynamics and transport, including its drivers and impacts.
Land-use models, especially cellular automata (CA)-based land-
use models, offer a good platform to study urban dynamics (Al-
Ahmadi, See, Heppenstall, & Hogg, 2009). Because accessibility is
widely acknowledged as a key determinant of land-use dynam- ics,
many of these models include accessibility as a driver of urban land-
use change (for example Feng, Liu, Tong, Liu, & Deng, 2011; Han,
10169-2046/$
Corresponding- see front matter
author. © 2013 University,
King Abdulaziz Elsevier B.V.Faculty
All rights reserved.
of Environmental Design, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. Mobile: +966564559133.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.landurbplan.2013.01.003
E-mail addresses: aljoufie@itc.nl, mjoufie@hotmail.com (M. Aljoufie).
Hayashi, Cao, & Imura, 2009; Pinto & Antunes, 2010; Reilly, O'Mara,
& Seto, 2009; Stanilov &Batty, 2011). In such models, accessibility is
mostly modelled statically and defined as the proximity to major
infrastructure elements or important destinations. The actual
performance of the transport system, in terms of traffic vol- umes and
recurrent levels of congestion on the network, is typically absent.
Transport models, or travel demand models, have been used to
make predictions of future changes in the usage of transport facilities
for the sake of facility design, control and operation (Ortúzar &
Willumsen, 2011) since the early 1960s. Changes in travel patterns
can be computed from autonomous spatial developments, spatial
planning policies or transport and traf- fic intervention; traffic
forecasts can then be made from these computations. Although
activity-based models have been devel- oped recently (Bhat &
Koppelman, 2003), classical four-step models are still used universally
(Algers, Eliasson, & Mattson, 2005). Four-step models predict the
number of trips between trip origins and destinations, which are
represented in geo- graphical units called Traffic Analysis Zones
(TAZs), and modal traffic flows in four consecutive steps.
90 M. Aljoufie et al. / Landscape and Urban Planning 112 (2013) 89-99
Accordingly, the level of accessibility for each TAZ can be computed.
Important inputs to this model are the land use per TAZ, and a set of
behavioural and choice data. The main critique to the application of
these models in practice has long been the absence of any feedback
from the transport model on land use (Beimborn & Kennedy, 1996).
Because land use and transport interact, several researchers have
indicated that the development of an integrated approach that links
land use and accessibility dynamically is a crucial step in explaining
land-use dynamics (Benenson &Torrens, 2004; Santé, García,
Miranda, & Cresente, 2010; Torrens & Benenson, 2005; Xie & Batty,
2005). Some existing modelling approaches that allow for such
feedbacks between the land-use and transport sys- tems include
logistic regression (Iacono & Levinson, 2009), system dynamics
(Pfaffenbichler & Emberger, 2010), or CA-based land- use models
(RIKS, 2010). These models belong to the family of land-use/transport
interaction (LUTI) models and facilitate the exploration of the mutual
interaction between land-use change and transport, the estimation of
future dynamics, and the development of alternative spatial plans and
policies. The calibration of these LUTI models is not straightforward,
mainly because the interaction between the land-use system and the
transport system is recipro- cal, complex and dynamic (Chang, 2006).
Therefore, although it is clear that the mutual representation of land-
use change and trans- port is a conceptual improvement, it is not
immediately clear that this will improve modelling results. Hence,
there is a challenge to calibrate LUTI models in a way that is
theoretically sound and practically applicable (Hunt, 1994).
This paper presents a CA-based LUTI model that is applied to the
rapidly growing metropolitan area of Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. The model
was calibrated to reproduce historic land-use changes and traffic flows
using a stage-wise procedure (Abraham & Hunt, 2000; Zhong, Hunt,
& Abraham, 2007), thereby specifically looking at the feedback
between land use and transport in the dynamic model to assess the
added value of an integrated approach. The results of this LUTI
modelling were subsequently compared against a baseline of a similar
stand-alone land-use model.
The remainder of this paper is organised as follows: Section 2
describes the CA-based LUTI model, its application to the case study
of the city of Jeddah, and the applied calibration and validation
procedures. Section 3 presents and discusses the results of the cal-
ibration and independent validation. Section 4 draws conclusions
about the calibration and validation framework and the case study
results and discusses some directions for future research.
2. Methodology
2.1. Metronamica-LUTI: an integrated Land-Use - Transport
Interaction model
For this study, we applied the Metronamica Land-Use - Transport
Interaction model (Metronamica-LUTI), which integrates a cellular
automata (CA)-based land-use model and a four-step transport model
into one system. It builds on the Metronamica land-use model, which
is a constrained CA-based land-use model (White, Engelen, & Uljee,
1997). CA models typically exist on a lattice of grid cells, where the
state of each grid cell represents one of a limited number of land uses.
Land-use change is com- puted for discrete time steps. For each time
step, the land use of a particular location can change following a set of
transition rules. Transition rules include the physical suitability of a
location, the accessibility to transport networks, spatial planning
measures, and the neighbourhood rules, where the neighbourhood
rules define the influence of the land uses in the vicinity of a location
(White & Engelen, 2000).
The Metronamica land-use model contains 3 types of land-use
classes: function land uses, feature land uses, and vacant land uses.
Function land uses are actively allocated using transition rules.
Generally urban land uses are represented as function land uses.
Feature land uses are those land uses that do not change during a
simulation, such as water bodies or infrastructure elements. Vacant
land uses are assigned to all locations that are not occupied by a
function or feature land use (White et al., 1997). For each time step,
representing one year, function land uses are allocated to those
locations that have the highest potential for this land use. Poten- tials
are computed for each cell and for each land use based on transition
rules:
(1)
P
k,l = rk,i ' Ak,i ' Sk,i ' Zk,i ' Nk,i
where P^ is the potential for land-use class k in cell i, r^ is a scal- able
random perturbation term for land use k in cell i, Akti is the
accessibility for land use k in cell i, Ski is the physical suitability for
land use k in cell i, Z^t is the zoning status for land use k in cell i, and
Nkti is the influence of the neighbourhood rules for land use k in cell i.
A more detailed explanation of the Metronamica land-use model can
be found in RIKS (2010).
In addition to the constrained land-use model, Metronamica- LUTI
contains a four-step transport model to calculate the transport
accessibility per TAZ. In the first step, production and attraction for
each TAZ, i.e., the numbers of trip origins and trip destinations, are
calculated based on the existing land use and behavioural parame- ters
of the trip makers. These trips are calculated for three periods
(morning peak hour, afternoon peak hour and the rest ofthe day) for a
representative average weekday. In the second step, trip distribu- tion,
trips are distributed between origins and destinations based on travel
time and costs to travel from one location to another. In the third step,
mode choice, trips are further distributed over the alternative transport
modes based on the service characteristics of each of the modes.
Finally, in the fourth step, traffic assignment, trips per mode are
assigned to the transport network, resulting in traffic volumes per road
segment. A more detailed description of four-step transport models
can be found in Ortúzar and Willumsen (2011).
Because land use is a primary input in the four-step transport
model and transport accessibility is an important input in the land- use
model, the two can be integrated in a straightforward manner. Both
models are evaluated per yearly time step; therefore, each year, the
result from the land-use model feeds into the transport model and vice
versa. This results in a dynamic model that includes the mutual
feedback between both systems, as depicted in Fig. 1.
The input from the land-use model into the transport model
consists of a map that indicates the current land use for each cell. The
number of trip origins and trip destinations per TAZ simply follows
from the number of cells per land-use type in a TAZ and the
production and attraction per cell for each particular land-use type.
The trip distribution, modal choice and traffic flows (including level of
congestion) are then calculated based on the travel time and cost
impedances between all TAZs. The results from the transport model
feed back into the land-use model through the calculated level of
 M. Aljoufie et al. / Landscape and Urban Planning 112 (2013) 89-99
Fig. 1. Metronamica-LUTI structure.
accessibility. In fact, the accessibility used in the land-use model is
composed of several accessibility factors:
A
k,i — k,i * IAk,i * ZAk.Xz)
LA
where LA^Í is the local accessibility for land use k in cell i, ¡Akj
is the implicit accessibility for land use k in cell i, and ZAkj(z) is the
zonal accessibility for land use k in cell i, which equals the zonal
accessibility for land use k of the TAZ wherein cell i is located. The
local accessibility indicates the accessibility for land use k in cell i as a
function of its location relative to the road network, i.e., the proximity:
ak r
IA _ ’
k
’' 1 + díM,r
where di is the distance from location i to the nearest cell that (3)
includes a road, Dkr is the distance decay parameter for road
type r for land use k, and a^r is the importance for road type r for land
use k. Parameters a and D are set for each road type separately in the
ZA*k,z = 12lyi’k • ZAl,z
ZAJ™ — minz|ZA* z|
ZAJPax — max |ZA* z |
z (9)
where ytk is the sensitivity-to-cost parameter that indicates how much
the allocation of land use k depends on the distribution of land use l
over all TAZs and ZAlow is the parameter that controls the
influence of zonal accessibility on land-use allocation. As the (4)
most accessible zone has an accessibility of 1, ZAlow is defined
between 0 and 1. As a complete description of Metronamica-LUTI is
beyond the scope of this paper, we only present the equations that
describe the link between the transport model and the land-use model.
For the complete model description we refer again to the
Metronamica- LUTI model description (RIKS, 2010).
2.2. Simulating urban growth in the city ofJeddah
Jeddah is the second largest city in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
It is located on the west coast of the kingdom in the middle of the Red
Sea’s eastern shore (Fig. 2).Jeddah’s population increased
dramatically from 147,900 inhabitants in 1964 to 3,247,134 inha-
bitants in 2007, primarily due to in-migration from villages and
suburbs to the city in search for jobs and a better life. The strength of
the economy and the growth in population are increasingly strain- ing
the city’s transport system. Jeddah’s transport is dominated by cars,
with residents using private automobiles for 93% of their trips (IBI,
2007). Rapid urban expansion, population growth and traffic
congestion are currently the main issues in Jeddah’s planning and
governance. ^ZAí,z
ZAJ™
The study area for the
(6)
Metronamica-LUTI ZAmx - ZAmn
91
calibration procedure. ¡Akti represents the accessibility of a cell i for
land use k that is implicit to its current land use l, as we assume that
built-up areas include a basic infrastructure even though it might not
be represented in the road network layers that are included in the
model:
( a if l(i) e built-up land uses
1 b otherwise where a and b are parameters in the range [0,1],
and that are set in the calibration procedure. ZAkj(z) expresses the zonal
accessi- bility for land use k at location i in zone z. It expresses how
well this location can be reached by all relevant land uses in all TAZs.
The zonal accessibility for a land use k in cell i is thus a function of
the distribution of land uses l in all other zones z'. For exam- ple, the
accessibility of commercial land typically depends on the distribution
of residential areas as well. The influence of any land use l in zone z'
on the accessibility of zone z is calculated as the cost-weighted
summation over trip destinations z’:
ZA'-z = 12/<.z" ' (5)
l
where 0 is the sensitivity to cost for accessing land use l, Ai¿ the
amount of land use l in destination zone z, and Cz-¿ the generalised
(2)
cost to travel from zone z to z’. Based on the influences of all other
land uses in all other zones, the zonal accessibility for the allocation of
a particular land use k on location i, ZAki(z), is then computed as
follows:
ZAk>i(z) — ZAlow + (1 - ZAiow) •
(7)
(8)
application covers the entire area under the Jeddah urban authority’s
rule. It is repre- sented by a regular grid 408 cells wide by 755 cells
long, using a 100 metre resolution. Land use and transport
infrastructure maps were prepared using a cooperative visual
interpretation method that integrates geographic information system
(GIS) and remote sensing (RS) techniques. Aerial photos from 1980,
Spot satellite images from 1993, 2002 and 2007, Jeddah master plans,
and transport stud- ies were used to extract ten urban land-use classes:
residential, commercial, industrial, public places, informal settlements,
airport, port, roads, vacant lands and green areas. Thereafter,
residential land use was further categorised into three different density
classes (high, medium and low) based on population per TAZ to better
depict the relation between population densities and transport in
Jeddah. Land-use classes were categorised into vacant (i.e., vacant
lands), function (i.e., residential low density, residential medium
density, residential high density, commercial and industrial) and
feature (i.e., airport, port, public places, green areas, informal set-
tlement, and outside the simulation area) categories as required by the
model.
Suitability maps for urban land uses were prepared in a GIS based
on soil and slope data. In addition, zoning maps were cre- ated based
on Jeddah spatial plans, other than the master plan, and known zoning
policies. These plans and policies represent restric- tions for the
development of urban land uses. Population growth and land-use
demands for different points in time were derived from census data for
1993, 2005 and 2010, Jeddah master plans for 1980,1987, 2004 and
Jeddah detailed plans for 2009.
92 M. Aljoufie et al. / Landscape and Urban Planning 112 (2013) 89-99

ATAZ map for the transport model, consisting of 311 zones, was
obtained based on a combination ofJeddah’s existing authority sub-
district boundaries and TAZ maps from previous transport studies
(IBI, 2007; Municipality ofJeddah, 2006). The road maps, repre-
sented as a network with linear elements, were manually digitised for
the years 1980, 1993, 2002 and 2007 using aerial photographs and
satellite images. Highways and primary and secondary road
 M. Aljoufie et al. / Landscape and Urban Planning 112 (2013) 89-99
Fig. 2. Study area.
classes could be distinguished as well. The road network map of 1980
was incorporated in the model as the initial road network map, while
the extensions to this road network in 1993, 2002 and 2007 were
mapped as incremental changes to the 1980 network. Daily trips were
divided over three periods: morning rush hour (3 h), afternoon rush
hour (3 h) and the rest of the day, while four trip purposes were
distinguished: home to work, work to home, work to work and others
(social, shopping and leisure). Two transport modes that dominate
daily trips in Jeddah have been considered in this study: private car
and public trans- port.
2.3. Calibration procedure for the land use and transport interaction
model
For the calibration of the Metronamica-LUTI application, a stage-
wise sequential approach was adopted. In a stage-wise approach,
models are first calibrated individually before the parameters that
define the interaction between these models are set (Abraham & Hunt,
2000). Specifically, the Jeddah application was calibrated using the
following four stages: (1) calibration of the CA-based land-use model
as a stand-alone application, (2) calibration of the four-step transport
model as a stand-alone application using a sequence of land-use maps,
(3) calibration of the connection between both models using the
complete CA-based LUTI model, and (4) independent validation of
the complete CA-based LUTI model. This procedure is presented
graphically in Fig. 3 and explained in more detail in the subsequent
sections.
93
The rationale for the stage-wise approach is that it avoids circular
interconnections in the initial stage and that it can close-in
systematically on model parameters (Hunt, 1994). The order of the
calibration of stand-alone models is justified by the speed with which
the land-use system and the transport system react to each other's
dynamics: although the two systems interact, the land-use system is
more dynamic than the transport system. Hence, the inac- curacy that
is introduced by simulating land-use changes using a static
accessibility to transport networks is smaller than the inac- curacy that
would be introduced by simulating transport dynamics using a static
land-use model.
2.3.1. Stage 1: calibration ofthe CA-based land-use model
The first stage comprises the calibration of the stand-alone
application of the Metronamica land-use model. This land-use model
was calibrated to simulate land-use changes in Jeddah between 1980
(t0) and 2007 (t1). However, because land-use data were available for
2002 as well, the calibration initially consid- ered 1980-2002 and
2002-2007 separately to allow for a better understanding of temporal
dynamics. The calibration was started after defining the initial value of
the neighbourhood rules based on a multiple linear regression analysis
of the available spatial temporal land use data for Jeddah (1980-2007).
The model performance was improved by introducing suitability maps
and zoning maps and by iteratively adjusting the neighbourhood rules,
the random perturbation term and the parameters that define the influ-
ence of accessibility on transport networks. Hence, the influence of
transport on land-use dynamics in this stand-alone application
94 M. Aljoufie et al. / Landscape and Urban Planning 112 (2013) 89-99
Fig. 3. Stage-wise sequential calibration approach.
is reduced to the proximity of elements of the road network, as
described by Equation 3, while transport dynamics or intensities were
not considered here.
The calibration ofthe land-use model used a manual procedure, and
the initial results were assessed using expert knowledge and visual
comparison following Ward, Murray, and Phinn (2000) and Barredo,
Demicheli, Lavalle, Kasanko, and McCormick (2004). Expert
knowledge was used to set the hierarchy between urban land uses, as
urban dynamics are characterised by a densification of residential
areas in the centre of the city, while less dense land uses are pushed
outwards to the more peripheral areas. Visual comparison was used to
assess if the simulated land-use patterns were realistic and if the
location of simulated land-use changes coincided with locations of
observed land-use changes. In addition to a visual assessment, the
predictive accuracy of the calibrated land-use model application was
also assessed by means of Kappa Simulation (van Vliet, Bregt, &
Hagen-Zanker, 2011).
Kappa Simulation expresses the agreement between the actual land-
use map and the simulated land-use map, corrected for the agreement
that can be expected by chance, given the amount of land-use change
relative to the original land-use map. Values range from -1 to 1 and a
value above zero indicates that a simulation is more accurate than can
be expected by chance alone, and hence that the simulation does
explain some land-use changes.
2.3.2. Stage 2: calibration ofthe four-step transport model
The second stage of the calibration procedure encompasses the
calibration of the four-step transport model. However, within this
stage, three distinct phases are identified. First, a num- ber of
parameters that could be obtained from data or other sources were set,
then the transport model was calibrated to reproduce the transport
system in the initial year (1980), and finally, changes in the transport
system over time were consid- ered.
Several parameters in the four-step model were derived from
 M. Aljoufie et al. / Landscape and Urban Planning 112 (2013) 89-99
earlier transport studies in Jeddah (IBI, 2007; Municipality of Jeddah,
2006), and from another transport study for the city of Riyadh, Saudi
Arabia (Municipality of Riyadh, 2006), because the latter city has
characteristics very similar to that of Jeddah. These parameters include
those representing vehicle occupancy, travel costs per kilometre, and
travel costs per hour, as these can be observed from data or at least be
compared from one model to another. As these parameters are
measured or at least reasonably well estimated they were fixed and not
further calibrated.
Subsequently, the four-step model was calibrated to reproduce the
transport system in the initial year of the simulation. In this phase, the
initial land-use map was input into the model to simu- late the
transport system in that year. Parameters included mainly those for trip
generation (production and attraction), but also the sensitivity to costs
and preferences for alternative transport modes. Because this stage
includes many different parameters, calibra- tion was performed using
an iterative approach, and all parameters were revisited several times.
Finally, the changes in the transport system over time were cal-
ibrated. For this, the series of land-use maps obtained from the land-
use model calibrated in stage 1 were input into the model. However,
there was no feedback from the transport system to the land-use
system at this stage; hence, land-use changes were included in the
four-step model, but transport dynamics were not included in the land-
use model. Parameters that change over time include the mobility
growth (i.e., a factor that controls the develop- ment of transport over
time as an exogenous trend), the costs per kilometre and the cost per
hour. The fact that not only data but also model parameters
representing actor behaviour can change over time adds to the realism
of the model but also to the complexity of the calibration.
Results of the four-step transport model were assessed by com-
paring model results with actual travel observations as well as with
results from earlier transport studies. The latter mainly include the trip
matrices of all transport periods for the initial year (1980) and the final
year (2007) using data from an earlier study of transport in Jeddah
(IBI, 2007). Moreover, derived statistics, such as the aver- age trip
distance and the average trip duration per transport mode, were used to
compare and assess the model results.
2.3.3. Stage 3: calibration of the feedback from transport to land use
In this stage, the Metronamica-LUTI was used to simultaneously
model land-use and transport dynamics. Relative to the previous stage,
this means that the feedback from the transport system on the
allocation of land uses was included. This feedback exists through the
zonal accessibility as explained in Section 2.1. Specif- ically, this
stage includes the adjustment of the minimum zonal accessibility and
the adjustment of the sensitivity of land-use allo- cation to transport
costs to improve the allocation of observed land-use changes.
However, this feedback also yields land-use dynamics different from
those simulated in the first stage. There- fore, the link from the land-
use system to the transport system was revisited as well.
Because the feedback between the land-use and transport sys- tems
requires time to adjust, the model was calibrated using a land use map
of 2007 and data on average trip lengths in 2007 from a reference
transport model (IBI, 2007). Simulation results were assessed using a
visual comparison method, Kappa Simulation and Moran's I statistics.
Visual comparison and Kappa Simulation were used to assess the
simulated land-use pattern as explained in Section 2.3.1. Moran's I
was used as a measure of spatial clustering or dispersion in the land-
use pattern, so as to characterise the land-use pattern and measure the
similarity between the simulated land-use pattern and the actual
pattern (Li & Liu, 2006; Wu, 2002). Under
Table 1
Results for the land-use model at the various calibration stages.
Land-use model calibration stage
1.1 Neighbourhood rules value based on regression
95
analysis (Stage 1)
1.2 Calibration of random perturbation term (Stage 1) 0.28
1.3 Introduction of suitability, accessibility and zoning 0.435
factors (Stage 1)
1.4 Calibration of neighbourhood rules (Stage 1) 0.648
1.5 Revisiting neighbourhood rules 2002-2007 (Stage 1) 0.687
3.1 Including transport as an integrated model 0.702
component (Stage 3)
conditions of statistical significance, a Moran's I value of 1 indi- cates
a maximum level of clustering of a land-use type, while values close
to 0 indicate a near random spatial arrangement and a value of
negative 1 indicates a maximum level of dispersion.
2.3.4. Stage 4: independent validation ofthe CA-based land-
use/transport interaction model
To rigorously test the model calibration, an independent vali-
dation was performed for the complete LUTI model. In this
independent validation, land-use and transport dynamics were
simulated from 2007 (t1) to 2011 (t2) using the parameters as obtained
during the calibration stages. Because no land-use map was available
for 2011, results were assessed based on a 2011 ground truth dataset of
250 randomly generated field points. Like- wise, the transport model
was validated based on available origin and destination figures and
observed traffic counts for 2011. Specif- ically, the performance of the
transport model was assessed based on trip characteristics from the
reference transport studies (Dar Al- handasah, 2010; IBI, 2011;
Midrar, 2011) for several TAZs in Jeddah, while traffic flows
generated by the transport model were validated using traffic count
data for selected road segments in the study area.
3. Results and discussion
3.1. Calibration results
Table 1 and Fig. 4 show the stage-wise calibration results (best-
fit) of the Kappa Simulation for the land-use model in stage 1.
Although the model produces a low accuracy result in the ini- tial
calibration steps, the model fit improves substantially after introducing
the suitability, accessibility and zoning factors as well as upon
calibration of the neighbourhood rules. Particularly, the cal- ibration of
neighbourhood rules produces the largest improvement (from 0.435 to
0.648), as indicated by the overall Kappa simulation statistic. This
reflects the central role of neighbourhood rules in accurately
simulating land-use changes.
Subsequently in stage 2, the modelled trip origins and destina-
tions for the year 2007 are compared with the reference origin -
destination (OD) trip data per TAZ for the same year and aggre- gated
to the level of sub-municipalities in Fig. 5, which represent distinct
urban areas within Jeddah. The average absolute error between
modelled and reference trip origins per sub-municipality is 13.5% for
the morning period and 12.3% for the afternoon period, whereas the
destination best-fit rendered an average absolute error of 18.2% for the
morning period and 17.3% for the afternoon period. This figure also
depicts the variation in the model accuracy per sub-municipality. The
central urban areas produced a slightly higher accuracy in comparison
with the fringe areas, which can be explained by the relatively small
TAZs in the urban area that allow for more accurate trip production
and trip attraction esti- mates, because all households within a TAZ
are assumed to show similar travel behaviour. Moreover, the best
model fit for the total
Kappa
simulation
0.21
96 M. Aljoufie et al. / Landscape and Urban Planning 112 (2013) 89-99

Fig. 4. Best fits of land use forthe different calibration steps under different stages: (1) Neighbourhood rules valú es based on regression analysis (stage 1); (2) Calibration of random
perturbation term (stage 1); (3) Introduction of suitability, accessibility and zoning factors (stage 1); (4) Calibration of neighbourhood rules (stage 1); (5) Revisiting neighbourhood rules
1980-2007 (stage 1); (6) Including transport as an integrated model component (stage 3); (7) Reference land use map of 2007.

number of trips was 92.5% of the reported total number of trips in the
2007 reference study, while the best fit for modal split (i.e., the share
of daily trips over available modes, i.e., forJeddah public transport and
private car) was 5.8% for public transport and 94.2% for private car
compared to 6.1% and 93.9% for the reference modal split in 2007,
respectively.
A large part of the difference between the simulated trip ori- gins
and destinations and the total number of trips in this study and the
reference transport study (IBI, 2007) can be explained by the data that
is input to both trip generation models. The reference study uses
households as input, while this study is based on land uses. Although
residential land use is represented in three levels of density, the lower
estimates in trip origins and destinations in the densest and most
central TAZ might be the result of underestima- tion of the number of
households in these zones. Another source of inaccuracy is the
presence of mixed land uses in these central zones, mostly residential
and commercial, while the land use model rep- resents the
predominant land use only. Hence the trip generation is only based on
this predominant land use. Recent developments in land-use modelling
that incorporate spatial agents or density lev- els for land-use activities
(van Vliet, Hurkens, White, & van Delden, 2012) can eliminate these
constraints and might provide directions for future research.
The results improve further after calibration of the link between
the land use and transport model in stage 3. The match of the
simulated land use of 2007 with the actual land use of 2007 (see Fig.
4) has increased from 0.687 to a Kappa Simulation statistic of 0.702.
The visual comparison of the actual land-use patterns of2007 with the
2007 simulated land-use patterns after calibrating the link indicates a
good visual similarity. The values of Moran's I for the simulated land-
use patterns and for the actual land-use patterns are given in Table 2.
These results confirm that the simulated land- use patterns after
calibrating land use and transport interaction are closer to the actual
land-use patterns than without the link.
The main differences between simulated land use when only using
the land use model and when using the LUTI model can be observed
in the pattern of medium residential density, high resi- dential density
and commercial land uses. These land-use classes are located in areas
close to the city centre (CBD) as well as in areas with high traffic
flows and congested transport infrastructure. Table 3 shows two very
important effects of integrating trans- port in the land-use model. First,
the relative difference between sub-municipalities increases
considerably after the two models are linked, which means that sub-
municipalities that have a high level of accessibility tend to grow
faster than peripheral areas. Second, the ranking of the sub-
municipalities changed after the land-use and transport model were
integrated. Hence, a sub-municipality that was initially less attractive
(when measured from the transport
Table 2
Moran's I values for different land-use results.
Land use Moran's I p-value
0.00
Simulated 2007 land-use using the land-use model 0.20
Simulated 2007 land-use using the LUTI model 0.184
1 0.00
Actual 2007 land-use map 0.157 1 0.00
1
 M. Aljoufie et al. / Landscape and Urban Planning 112 (2013) 89-99 97

Table 3
Ranking of sub-municipalities based on the average accessibility for residential land uses for all locations within each sub-municipality.

Rank Residential high density Residential medium density Residential low density

Land-use model LUTI model Land-use model LUTI model Land-use model LUTI model
a b
Acc. Sub-m. Acc. Sub-m. Acc. Sub-m. Acc. Sub-m. Acc. Sub-m. Acc. Sub-m.

1 0.98 (3) 0.64 (2) 0.97 (4) 0.49 (4) 0.98 (8) 0.68 (8)
2 0.96 (2) 0.48 (3) 0.97 (6) 0.45 (6) 0.97 (6) 0.49 (6)
3 0.96 (5) 0.36 (4) 0.96 (8) 0.38 (5) 0.94 (7) 0.29 (7)
4 0.95 (1) 0.34 (5) 0.95 (2) 0.36 (8) 0.94 (5) 0.13 (4)
5 0.95 (4) 0.25 (9) 0.95 (5) 0.28 (2) 0.94 (4) 0.11 (5)
6 0.94 (6) 0.23 (1) 0.95 (7) 0.24 (7) 0.93 (9) 0.08 (9)
7 0.93 (8) 0.20 (6) 0.95 (9) 0.21 (9) 0.93 (2) 0.06 (2)
8 0.93 (9) 0.09 (8) 0.93 (3) 0.13 (3) 0.92 (3) 0.05 (10)
9 0.92 (7) 0.08 (7) 0.92 (10) 0.10 (10) 0.91 (10) 0.02 (3)
10 0.91 (10) 0.03 (10) 0.91 (1) 0.02 (1) 0.90 (1) 0.00 (1)
a
Acc. = Accessibility.
b
Sub-m. = sub-municipality (as shown in Fig. 5).

network only) now becomes more attractive (due to the feedback from
the transport model). Similar effects are visible on all spatial scales in
the model (cell, TAZ, and sub-municipality). It should be noted that
the absolute accessibility values have no intrinsic mean- ing; therefore,
the values from the stand-alone application and the values from the
LUTI application cannot be compared. Generally, the results show that
maximising the influence of transport on land use by decreasing the
minimum zonal accessibility and increasing the sensitivity to cost
improved the model results as it yielded more realistic land use
patterns.
In addition, in the transport model, the average trip distance comes
closer to reality after adding the link with the land-use model,
decreasing from 8.04 km before the link calibration to 7.76 km after
link calibration, compared to the actual value of 7.6 km in 2007. Both
the land use and transport results show that it is not only the transport
infrastructure that stimulates land-use changes but also the congestion
levels through their effect on gen- eralised costs and, therefore, zonal
accessibility. This result stresses the fact that it is crucial to consider
the calibration of the full land- use/transport dynamics.

3.2. Independent validation results

The result from the independent validation based on 250 sam- ple
points in stage 4 indicates the performance of the model in simulating
the period from 2007 to 2011. These results show that the land-use
model simulated land-use changes correctly for 74% of the 250
sample points. Conversely, a comparison of simulated trip productions
and attractions in 2011 with the available refer- ence travel demand
data based on morning peak cordon counts for 4 TAZs (Fig. 6) yields
an average absolute error of 15.25% for trip production and 19.25%
for trip attraction, disregarding the direc- tion of the error. Model
results at the level of road segments show an average absolute error of
15.4% relative to the traffic count data, as shown in Table 4 and Fig.
7.

Table 4
Validation results for production and attraction on individual TAZs.
TAZ Trip production Trip attraction
Data Model Error Data Model Error
% %
1 965 928 -3 1448 1263 -12
2 1757 1122 -36 3479 2236 -35
3 939 773 -17 1584 1953 23
4 6299 5954 -5 4200 3901 -7
Average absolute 15. 19.25
error (%) 25
98 M. Aljoufie et al. / Landscape and Urban Planning 112 (2013) 89-99

The accuracy of the simulated trip production and attraction in

2011 is of the same order of magnitude as the average absolute error in
the calibration of production and attraction of 2007 in stage 2. The
average absolute error of 15.25% for trip production and 19.25% for
trip attraction are quite close to the absolute errors of trip pro- duction
(13.5%) and attraction (18.2%) in stage 2. This indicates a stable error
margin and a likely stable model behaviour over time Table 5.
The independent validation results over several land-use cells, sub-
districts and road segments in the study area show that the calibrated
model predicts land-use changes and changes in travel patterns and
traffic flows very well. This result indicates that the calibrated model
is not overfitted to the specific changes that occurred in the calibration
period. Instead, the results suggest that the parameters reflect the
general land-use and transport dynam- ics that take place in Jeddah
and that the calibrated application is well suited for exploring future
land-use changes and alternative scenarios.

3.3. General discussion

The results have shown that the CA-based LUTI model performs
better than the stand-alone CA-based land-use model after cali- bration
of its parameters. However, calibration of the LUTI model is not
straightforward. Previous studies have used a simultane- ous
calibration approach (Haghani, Lee, & Byun, 2003) and the stage-wise
calibration approaches as proposed by Hunt (1994), Abraham and
Hunt (2000), and Zhong et al. (2007) to calibrate such models. The
simultaneous calibration approach typically adopts a trial-and-error
procedure. However, this approach is cumbersome, not very
systematic and, therefore, computationally expensive, which increases
the chances for suboptimal calibration. In this study of Jeddah, we
have therefore adopted the stage-wise

Table 5
Validation results for traffic flow on individual road segments.
 M. Aljoufie et al. / Landscape and Urban Planning 112 (2013) 89-99 99

Segment Observed traffic Modelled traffic Error (%)

1 39,902 37,525 -6
2 51,225 67,438 32
3 84,659 71,214 -16
4 89,261 94,738 6
5 81,444 76,835 -6
6 62,545 56,268 -10
7 63,332 59,190 -7
8 90,743 123,837 36
9 67,316 77,819 16
10 73,772 66,292 -10
11 67,607 50,553 -25
Average absolute error 15
(%)
 Fig. 6. Transport model validation TAZs.

Fig. 5. Comparison of the model trip origins and destinations and data at sub- municipality
level for morning and afternoon periods.

Fig. 7. Transport model validation road segments.

calibration approach with four sequential stages, particularly focusing
on the interaction between the transport component and land-use
component in the model and including a validation stage. This
calibration procedure has facilitated a better understanding of each of
the components in the model and their interaction and provides a
systematic practical calibration approach.
Data quality is an important element for successful CA model
application, calibration and validation (Silva & Clarke, 2002). In this
study, several data sources have been used to perform the cali- bration
and validation activities, including images, aerial photos and master
plans as reference data. Given the inconsistent spa- tial and temporal
resolution of these data, a consistent method, i.e., the cooperative
visual interpretation method, has been used to extract land-use and
transport infrastructure data. Using this method, a high accuracy of
90% was achieved for the input data, which exceeds the minimum
85% accuracy set for land use data by
102 M. Aljoufie et al. / Landscape and Urban Planning 112 (2013) 89-99
Anderson, Hardy, Roach, and Witmer, (1976). Nevertheless, there will
always be inherent errors in remote sensing data extraction. These
errors in the source data certainly propagate through the CA
simulation but are low relative to the amount of change. This low error
rate is partly because errors are much reduced in the simu- lation due
to the averaging effects of neighbourhood functions and the use of
iterations in the CA (Yeh & Li, 2006; Li & Liu, 2006). In this study,
we have used different data sources for the indepen- dent validation,
including field measurements for traffic flow and verified ground
measurements for validating land-use changes. The validation results
show a good match of the model with actual data.
Urban growth in Jeddah is hardly constrained by biophysical
properties of the landscape. This makes Jeddah an excellent case study
to test a dynamic land use-transport interaction model. As land-use
changes are typically a result of a combination of drivers, the absence
of other such landscape properties increases the role of transport in
urban growth. For similar reasons, the absence of natural or
agricultural land uses in the surroundings of the city decreases the
complexity of the model and increases the focus on trans- port as a
driver for land-use change. In addition, transport system
characteristics also seem to support the model calibration process.
Jeddah is almost unimodal, with a car share of 94% dominating the
modal split of transport. Jeddah's landscape properties and trans- port
characteristics seem to decrease the complexity of the model and
increase the focus on transport as a driver for land-use change.
Overall, the calibrated LUTI model seems to be a very useful tool
to analyse the reciprocal interaction between urban growth and
transport. The model can be used to explore the current interaction
between land-use change and transport and to simulate the future
interaction under alternative spatial plans and policies.
4. Conclusión
Interactions between land use and transport take place over spatial
and temporal dimensions and involve factors with varying degrees of
certainty (Chang, 2006; Shaw & Xin, 2003). Conse- quently,
modelling efforts that aim to study land-use and transport systems
should acknowledge their complex interactions over space and time.
This paper presented the results ofusing a CA-based Land- Use -
Transport Interaction (LUTI) model, Metronamica-LUTI, to simulate
land use - transport interaction in the city of Jeddah. The model results
indicate that these complex interactions are handled well and that the
feedback from the transport system to the land- use system by means
of zonal accessibility improved the model performance.
The LUTI model was applied to the rapidly growing metropoli-
tan area of Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. Calibrating a complex model, such
as this LUTI model, is not straightforward. The application was
calibrated using a stage-wise approach with three sequential stages as
proposed by Hunt (1994). This approach first calibrates separate
model components and subsequently calibrates the feed- back between
model components. A particular focus was given on the simultaneous
calibration of the interaction between the model components. A fourth
stage for validation has been included to assess the performance of the
LUTI model over the standard land use model. This provides a
systematic practical calibration procedure which reduces the
complexity of the integrated land use- transport model, and facilitates
a better understanding of each of the components in the model and
their interaction. The calibration and independent validation results
have shown that the integrated model generates good results for the
land-use change as well as for the transport components. Moreover,
calibration results indi- cate that the explicit modelling of the feedback
from transport to land use improves the simulation results. This
confirms the strong link between land-use change and transport and
suggests that both are better studied as an integrated system rather than
as separate entities.
The results of this research provide several directions for fur- ther
research. First, given the promising calibration and validation results,
it provides a thorough basis for exploration of future urban dynamics
in Jeddah. Considering the rapid population growth and the currently
car-dominated society of Jeddah, this model will prove useful and
necessary. Second, given the complexity of land-use changes and their
interaction with transport, additional testing on other areas will
provide further insights to the capac- ity of Metronamica-LUTI for
simulating land use and transport interactions. Particularly, polycentric
urban structures, regional applications, a larger role for other transport
modes, and case stud- ies that include a more diverse landscape,
including agricultural and natural land uses, will provide useful cases.
Acknowledgment
This work has been conducted at the Faculty of Geo-Information
Science and Earth Observation (ITC) of the University of Twente in
the Netherlands, as part of ongoing PhD research funded by the
Ministry of Higher Education and King Abdulaziz University, Saudi
Arabia. The authors would like to thank the Research Institute for
Knowledge Systems (RIKS) in Maastricht, the Netherlands for its
support in the use of the Metronamica software. The authors fur- ther
extend their thanks to King Abdul-Aziz City for Science and
Technology in Saudi Arabia for the provision of the Satellite images
and aerial photos, and Jeddah Municipality for providing the sec-
ondary data. The authors would also like to thank the reviewers for
their very constructive comments during the review process that has
brought our work further.
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