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Best Game Theory
Best Game Theory
Sabita Maharjan
Senior
Research
Scientist
Simula Metropolitan
Center
for
Digital
Engineering
(CDE,
SimulaMet),
Associate
Professor,
Department
o f
Informatics,
University
o f
Oslo,
Norway
Demand
Response
Management
and
Energy
Market
Discussions
2
Game
Theory
STARTING
WITH
SOME
EXAMPLES
Battle
of
the
Sexes
Important
Developments:
Nash
equilibrium
8
Game
theory
as
a
discipline
Figure
s ource:
http://www.slate.com/articles/sports/sports_nut/2013/11/the_world_chess_championship_is_an_embarrassing_anachronism_it_s_time_to.html
Game
theory
as
a
discipline
Figure
s ource:
http://www.slate.com/articles/sports/sports_nut/2013/11/the_world_chess_championship_is_an_embarrassing_anachronism_it_s_time_to.html
Key
Elements
in
“Battle
of
the
Sexes”
– an
example
Payoff happiness
or
Two
types
of
games
Non-‐cooperative game
Cooperative game
………….Then……………
Each
prisoner
is
rational
and
selfish.
Namely,
he
wants
to
maximize
his
own
benefit
and
does
not
care
about
the
other
person’s
benefit.
Each
prisoner
is
put
in
separate
room
and
does
not
know
the
other
person’s
choice.
When
you
and
Bill
can
talk,
you
may
not
trust
even
if
Bill
claims
to
cooperate.
Prisoner’s
Dilemma
– payoff
matrix
Prisoner’s
Dilemma
– payoff
matrix
Bill
You Confess Don’t
Confess
Confess (8,
8) (0,
15)
Don’t
Confess (15,
0) (1,
1)
Payoff
matrix:
each
cell
is
a
pair
of
payoff,
the
number
of
years
in
prison.
– (8,8)
è both
you
and
Bill
go
to
prison
for
8
years
If both you and Bill confess, you both go to prison for 8 years
If
you
confess
but
Bill
doesn’t
confess,
then
you
are
free
while
Bill
goes
to
prison
for
15
years
If
both
you
and
Bill
remain
silent,
then
you
both
go
to
prison
for
1
year
Clearly
the
best
result:
both
keep
silent.
(Q:
Is
this
doable?)
Prisoner’s
Dilemma
– shall
you
confess
or
not?
Bill
You Confess Don’t
Confess
Confess (8, 8) (0,
15)
Don’t
Confess (15,
0) (1,
1)
• If
Bill
confess,
then
you
intend
to
confess
to
get
8
years
instead
of
15
years
prison
• If
Bill
does
not
confess,
then
you
intend
to
confess
to
get
0
years
instead
of
1
year
in
prison
Bill
You Confess Don’t
Confess
Confess (8,
8) (0,
15)
Don’t
Confess (15,
0) (1,
1)
Dominant
strategy
• Same
as
you,
Bill
will
also
confess!
Both
get
8
years
in
prison
• Dominant
strategy:
for
both,
confession
is
a
dominant
strategy
that
yields
a
better
outcome
regardless
of
the
opponent’s
choice
Nash
Equilibrium
(NE)
Bill
will
confess,
then
be
in
prison
from
1
year
to
zero
If
both
do
not
confess
,
the
rival
will
always
want
to
deviate
Equilibrium
need
not
be
efficient. Non-‐cooperative
equilibrium
in
the
Prisoner’s
dilemma
results
in
a
solution
that
is
not
the
best
possible
outcome
for
the
parties.
Individual’s
best
choice
is
not
the
group’s
best
choice.
An
individual’s
rational
choice
may
lead
to
group’s
non-‐rational
choice
Paradox
What would you and Bill decide if they could negotiate?
A pure
strategy:
at
every
stage
in
the
game,
it
specifies
a
particular
move
with
complete
certainty.
A mixed
strategy:
applies
some
randomization to
at
least
one
of
the
moves.
The
randomization
is
a
set
of
fixed
probabilities,
where
the
sum
of
the
probabilities
is
1.
Outline
Game
Theory:
Examples
and
Introduction
Demand
Response
Management
and
Energy
Market
Discussions
24
Pricing
Scheme
DEMAND
RESPONSE
MANAGEMENT
Energy
balance:
power
generation
is
equal
to
power
demand
clearing
price
P*
Market
S>D
Energy
balance
is
very
important
S=D
for
energy
systems
stability
and
economy
D
Demand
Response
Management
(DRM)
is
the
main
approach
to
achieve
energy
balance
Residential users
Commercial users
Industrial
users
The
peak
load
issue
Capacity
(10^9 K Wh)
Nordic
usage
per
type
Peaks
have
less
than
1%
of
the
time.
Reducing
peaks
can
then
reduce
power
generation
and
save
a
lot
of
money
Demand
Response
Management
(DRM)
definition
Price-‐based program provides users with different prices at different times
Pricing
models
§ Time-‐of-‐Using
(ToU)
pricing;
§ Real-‐time
Pricing
(RTP);
§ …..
Time-‐of-‐Use
(ToU)
Pricing
Examples
§ Ontario,
Canada
§ Ausgrid (Australia) § on-‐peak
price
§ mid-‐peak
price
§ off-‐peak
price
Real-‐Time
Pricing
(RTP)
Examples
0 6 12 18 23
time
In
a
house,
a
smart
meter
can
automatically
coordinate
appliances
to
satisfy
the
user’s
need
via
ON/OFF
control
Power
infrastructure
Communications
infrastructure
Energy
Consumption
Scheduling:
A
simple
example
Dishwasher after lunch (Q: why choose time period between 1:30-‐3:30pm?)
• Q: Given the price values, how should we schedule the power load?
Example
Load
• For
each
appliance
𝒂 ∈ 𝑨 ,
it
is
𝜸𝒎𝒂𝒙 =𝟖
𝒂
required
that 8
6 4 ≤ 𝒙78
6 ≤8
𝛾<=>? ≤ 𝑥<A ≤ 𝛾<=<B 4 𝜸𝒎𝒊𝒏 =4
∀𝑎 ∈ 𝐴, ℎ ∈ [𝛼< , 𝛽< ] 2
𝒂
0
time
Energy
Consumption
Scheduling
– total
energy
constraint
• Let
𝑬𝒂 denote
the
total
energy
needed
for
the
operation
of
appliance
𝒂 ∈ 𝑨
– Bosch
WAS20160UC
washing machine:
𝑬𝒂 =
0.36
kWh
per
load
• Given
parameters
𝑬𝒂,
𝜶𝒂,
Load
and
𝜷𝒂 ,
it
is
required
that
8 𝒙𝟏𝟐
𝟓 + 𝒙𝟏𝟑
𝟓 + 𝒙𝟏𝟒
𝟓 + 𝒙𝟏𝟓
𝟓 + 𝒙𝟏𝟔
𝟓 + 𝒙 𝟏𝟕
𝟓 =32
6
4
2
0
time
Cost
Minimization
– where
𝒑𝒉 denotes
the
price
of
electricity
at
hour
h.
Could
be
ToU or
RTP
model
Game
theory
for
the
ENERGY
MARKET
Energy
market
players
– power
grid
operators
Retailer
The
retailer
buys
electricity
from
the
electricity
market,
then
sell
to
the
end-‐consumers.
Customers
Those
eventually
use
the
electricity
for
any
purpose
(from
watching
TV
to
heating
to
industrial
production
processes).
There
is
a
difference
between
small
and
large
consumers,
since
the
latter
ones
may
be
allowed
to
directly
participate
in
the
electricity
market.
Energy
market
players
– rule
and
operate
the
game
Regulators
Regulators
effectively
‘police’
the
energy
market.
The
regulator
is
responsible
for
the
market
design
and
its
specific
rules.
It
also
monitors
the
market
in
order
to
spot
misbehavior
in
electricity
markets
(collusion,
abuse
of
market
power,
etc.).
Market
operator
Power
exchange
platform
used
by
market
players
to
negotiate
purchases
and
sales
of
electricity.,
e.g.,
Nord
Pool
Relationship
between
market
players
Source:
Kirschen and
Strbac (2004).
F undamentals
of
Power
System
Economics]
How
does
electricity
market
work?
– an
example
170
MW
Demand
10
The
market
operator
finds
the
intersection
between
the
demand
line
and
the
supply
curve.
This
intersection
gives
the
market
100 200 300
clearing
price.
Production
(MW)
Then,
market
clearing
price
is
20$/MW.
This
price
is
same
for
all
generators
when
they
are
accepted
and
sell
electricity.
Profits
170
MW
Demand
10
20$/MW
– The
profit
is:
100*(20-‐
10)=1000 100 200 300
Production
(MW)
Generator
2
will
produce
70MW
with
price
20$/MW
– The
profit
is
0
Electricity
Market
Strategies
Rational
and
selfish: A
generator
should
decide
how
much
electricity
to
produce
in
order
to
maximize
its
profit
without
knowing
the
decision
of
the
others.
Electricity
price
will
be
determined
by
the
demand
curve
and
supply
curve
where
the
total
supply
is
equal
to
the
total
demand.
Cournot Game
with
Two
Generators
PRODUCTION Generator B
Generator A High Low
High (75,
75) (75,
20)
Low (20,
75) (20,
20)
For
(High,
High)
=
(75,
75),
the
total
production
is
75+75=150.
According
to
the
price
curve,
the
price
is
$40.
For
(High,
Low)
=
(75,
20),
the
total
production
is
95.
According
to
the
price
curve,
the
price
is
$45.
For
(Low,
High)
=
(20,
75),
the
total
production
is
95.
According
to
the
price
curve,
the
price
is
$45.
For
(Low,
Low)
=
(20,
20),
the
total
production
is
40.
According
to
the
price
curve,
the
price
is
$150.
Nash
equilibrium
PRICE Generator B
Generator A High Low
High 40 45
Low 45 150
PROFIT Generator B
Generator A High Low
High (2250,
2250) (2625,
700)
Low (700,
2625) (2800,
2800)
Nash
Equilibrium NE
When
both
generators
choose
low
levels
of
production
to
maximize
their
profits.
No
one
has
an
incentive
to
change
strategy,
given
the
other
player’s
choice
(mutual
best
response).
Research Problem
How to maximize revenues for multiple providers
while optimizing consumer demands?
S.
Maharjan,
Q.
Zhu,
Y.
Zhang,
S.
Gjessing and
T.
Basar,
"Dependable
Demand
Response
Management
in
the
Smart
62
Grid:
A
Stackelberg Game
Approach,"
in
IEEE
Transactions
on
Smart
Grid,
vol.
4,
no.
1,
pp.
120-‐132,
March
2013.
Problem formulation
K providers, N consumers:
user parameters
demand of user n
from
provider
k
cost limit
of user n
unit
price,
available
power
of
provider
k
63
Proposed Stackelberg game model
1 2 Providers K
Matrix A
where
65
Numerical results
The increase in a consumer’s cost
limit increases the unit prices too
Stochastic
games
Evolutionary
games
…..
Demand
Response
Management
and
Energy
Market
Discussions
68
Q&A
DISCUSSIONS
Setting
Electricity
Price
If
both
generators
cooperate,
they
can
both
charge
the
monopoly
price.
However,
each
generator
has
an
incentive
to
reduce
its
price
slightly
and
capture
more
market
share,
even
though
it
knows
that
both
generators
will
be
worse
off
if
they
both
cut
price.
Smart
DRM
with
solar
panel
and
wind
grid
power
is
difficult
to
model
Challenges? …
Smart
grid
0 6 12 18 23
time
Demand
response
applications:
Data
Centers
– Gmail
– Facebook
– Dropbox
– DNB
(supported
by
Green
Mountain
data
center
in
Stavanger) Google
Data
Centre
at
Mayes
County, Oklahoma
– Q:
more?
Demand
response
applications:
Data
Centers
Finland:
241kr/MWh
Oklahoma:
406kr/MWh
4
tasks 10
tasks
Morocco
2
tasks
Singapore:
1450kr/MWh
T.
Başar and
G.
J.
Olsder,
Dynamic
Noncooperative Game
Theory,
ser.
SIAM
Series
in
Classics
in
Applied
Mathematics.
Philadelphia,
PA:
SIAM,
1999.
H.
Singh,
“Introduction
to
game
theory
and
its
application
in
electric
power
markets”,
IEEE
Comp.
Applicat.
in
Power,
vol.
12,
pp.
18-‐22,
Oct.
1999
S.
Maharjan,
Q.
Zhu,
Y.
Zhang,
S.
Gjessing and
T.
Basar,
"Dependable
Demand
Response
Management
in
the
Smart
Grid:
A
Stackelberg Game
Approach,"
in
IEEE
Transactions
on
Smart
Grid,
vol.
4,
no.
1,
pp.
120-‐132,
March
2013.
R.
Deng,
Z.
Yang,
M.
Chow
and
J.
Chen,
“A
Survey
on
Demand
Response
in
Smart
Grid:
Mathematical
Models
and
Approaches,”
IEEE
Trans.
Industrial
Informatics,
vol.
11,
no.
3,
June,
2015
76
Thank
you!
Demand
Response
Pilot
Study
-‐ Findings
on
Users
Behavior
The
largest
portion
of
peak
load
reduction
is
attributable
to
commercial
&
industrial
customers
and
wholesale
market
participants.
The
growth
of
peak
load
reduction
is
mainly
driven
by
those
customers.