Stocastic contingency assessment applied to Demand
Management Contracts
N. Gonzalez-Cabrera
Electrical Engineering Department
UNAM
Ciudad de México, México
e-mail: nestorgc@ieee.org
Abstract— Electric systems require the necessity of new
methods and techniques to assess the security in operation and
planning. These techniques must be capable to add the oil
variation prices, demand growing and reliability assessment. The
consideration of all these variables convert the problem in a large
numbers of elements to be evaluated in the operation problem. As
a result, this arrogates great times wasted on unnecessary
simulation time. Mainly from the point of view of contingency
assessment. This paper presents an alternative method for the
contingencies assessment considering stochastic contingency
selection. Applied in the operation of power system considering the
minimum load reduction. This allow offer programs utilizing
structured incentive payments to encourage customer enrollment
and energy conservation.
Keywords— Reliability, Demand Response, Demand
Management, stochastic, contingency.
I. INTRODUCTION
An important factor affecting the operation of the system is
the maintenance of security. The concept of security involves
practices designed to keep the whole system for unanticipated
events, such as loss of features and equipment failures (e.g. one
transmission line could be outage for the rupture of a simple
driver or a lightning strike). Then, before this event, the System
Operator (SO) can plan trading strategies such that the
transmission elements that remain attached to the system is not
overloaded. These strategies include redistribution of generation
and/or connecting elements or, in the latter case, load
curtailment (LC) [1], but the LC can be avoided or reduced to a
minimum. Most of the power systems should satisfy the N-1
security criterion. Where the outputs of the failed elements allow
the system not stop operating at its boundaries. Preventing the
output elements cascaded. So in these systems auxiliary
equipment installed to allow monitoring and operation of the
system in a reliable way.
In order to maintain network security, the system operator
evaluates the contingencies of the electrical system. Evaluating
contingencies one by one takes a long time. The safety analysis
involves techniques concerning the electrical system to operate
safely [2] as contingency assessment. One important part is the
analysis of each of contingency. For detecting the violations of
operational limits of a set elements. In order to design effective
remedial actions. For example, the evaluation of contingency
can be based on power flow studies. And each contingency as
probable and dangerous set of contingencies that affect the entire
system. The expected values computed in reliability assesment.
Are important to analyse the true risk management for operation
and market behaviour. Due to random nature of the elements
connected in the electric power system. Become complicated the
assessment of the nodal reliability indices. In example authors
in [3] propose a two-stage stochastic model to determine the
optimal transmission line capacities based on reference network
model. This allows operators to establish preventive operating
states. Such that every contingency not to overload and / or
voltages outside limits arise. This type of analysis calculates
operational constraints that can be used in the study of active
power.
The contingencies assessments involve fast solution
methods. Containing contingency selection and automatic
initialization of power flows. These methods use current system
data and estimation procedure. The contingency assessments
allow the system operate preventively. Many problems that
occur in a power system can cause serious problems. Even
before the operator can decide and implement corrective action.
As is evaluated in [4] where authors demonstrate that methods
based purely on steady-state analysis may fail to identify the
most critical system vulnerabilities of contingency
considerations. Also authors in [5] present a new approach for
assessment and enhancement of the power system voltage
stability in the presence of wind power generation, as well as
electrical and heat demands uncertainty. A stochastic
programming method is adopted to handle the uncertainties of
the wind power generation and demands. Due to, the modern
operation control center have computer programs that model
and analyse potential system problems before they occur. Such
that the operator knows in advance and corrective actions.
Implementing the solution with sufficient opportunity really
happens when the analysed event. There are a number of
possible contingencies that could occur (2n possible event for
all the component system). So a contingency of the analyser is
a list of the most potential and dangerous for the system. In the
literature Monte Carlo (MC) technique is one of the most
utilizable technique to reduce the number of contingencies to
be analysed. Authors in [6]-[8] reduce a big number of
contingencies for only evaluated a group of these. In [6]
employed the MC procedure to derive probabilities of operating
states and include the occurrence weights in the assessment