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Confidence Intervals

CK-12

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the U.S. and worldwide. Using an open-source, collaborative, and
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that can be mixed, modified and printed (i.e., the FlexBook®
textbooks).

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Printed: October 27, 2016


www.ck12.org Chapter 1. Confidence Intervals

C HAPTER
1 Confidence Intervals
Learning Objectives

Suppose you were at a county fair and saw a large jar full of gumballs, maybe 1000 of them, with a sign that said
“Guess the Number, Win a Prize!” If the rules of the game are that you could win a $10 prize by guessing within
200 gumballs either way, or a $50 prize by guessing within five gumballs either way, but you have to specify which
prize you are trying for before submitting your guess, which would you choose?

Confidence Intervals

The general concept of confidence intervals is pretty intuitive: It is easier to predict that an unknown value will
lie somewhere within a wide range, than to predict it will occur within a narrow range. In other words, if you are
making an educated guess about an unknown number, you are more likely to be correct if you predict it will occur
within a wider range. This idea is reflected in the concept question above, where the reward is greater if you guess
within a smaller range, because the contest creator knows that your chance of guessing correctly is much less if you
have to guess within a smaller range.
A confidence interval, centered on the mean of your sample, is the range of values that is expected to capture the
population mean with a given level of confidence. A wider confidence interval is a greater range of values, resulting
in a greater confidence level that the range will include the population mean. By convention, you will mostly be
concerned with identifying the intervals associated with 90%, 95%, and 99% confidence levels.
Calculate the confidence interval by combining the sample mean with the margin of error, found by multiplying
the standard error of the mean by the z-score of the percent confidence level:

confidence interval = x ± margin of error


s
margin of error = Z a2 ⇥ p
n

It is common, but incorrect, to assume that a confidence level indicates the probability that the mean of the population
will occur within a given range of the mean of your sample. A 95% confidence interval means that if you took 100
samples, all of the same size, and formed 100 confidence intervals, 95 of these intervals would capture the population
mean.

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The confidence level indicates the number of times out of 100 that the mean of the population will be within the
given interval of the sample mean.

MEDIA
Click image to the left or use the URL below.
URL: https://www.ck12.org/flx/render/embeddedobject/68326

Comparing Sample Means to Population Means

Suppose you took 100 unbiased random samples of the heights of U.S. women (recall that height is normally dis-
tributed), each sample containing 30 women. What can you say about the means of the samples (x1 , x2 , . . . x100 ) com-
pared to the population mean?
Since height is normally distributed, we know that approximately 95% of women will have a height within two
standard deviations of the mean (remember the Empirical Rule?). That means that out of 100 samples, we can
assume that 95 of them will have a mean within 2 standard deviations of the population mean.

Predicting Population Means

Suppose the mean of the means of our 100 samples from Example A is 50 500 , in other words, X = 50 500 . Within what
range of heights can we expect the population mean to be, with 95% confidence? Assume a standard deviation of
1.500 .

Remember that since height is normally distributed, 95% of the values lie within 2 standard deviations of the mean,
we need to identify that range of values.

• First we need to use Z a2 ⇥ ps to identify the margin of error (since we are looking for a 95% confidence level,
n
this is the range of values within 2 standard deviations of the sample mean). Since s = 1.500 , in this case we
get 2 ⇥ p1.5 = 2 ⇥ 1.5 00
2 = 2 ⇥ 0.15 = 0.3 above and below X.
100

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www.ck12.org Chapter 1. Confidence Intervals

• The interval then is 50 200 to 50 800 , or three inches above and below the mean of 50 500 .

We can say that there is a 95% probability that the mean of our 100 samples would be within 0.3 inches either way
of the population mean. Since the mean of our sample is 50 500 , we can say that the population mean is between 50 4.700
and 50 5.300 with 95% confidence.
Mathematically: 50 4.700 < µ < 50 5.300

Plotting the Means of Samples

Suppose you plot the mean of each of your height samples on a graph, and drawing a line each way of the mean of
each sample to represent 2 standard deviations. If you were to do this for 50 of the samples, you might end up with
an image like the one below.

The image is a screen capture from the interactive applet at Bedford, Freeman, and Worth Publishing Group’s website
At the top of the image is a normal curve. Each of the lines below the curve has a length that represents a 95%
confidence interval, centered on the mean (in red) of the sample.
a. What is indicated by the lines that are all red in color?
The lines that are colored entirely red have a mean that is greater than 2 standard deviations away from the population
mean. In other words, the mean of those two samples was not within the stated confidence interval (95%).
b. What value is indicated by the vertical red center line on each interval?
The vertical red center line represents the mean of each sample.
c. What does the "percent hit" number mean? How would it change if you were to continue taking more and more
samples of 60 each?
The “percent hit” number indicates the percentage of times that the population mean was included in the confidence
interval of sample means. If you were to continue plotting sample means and confidence intervals, the percent hit
would approach 95%. In fact, here is the same graph after 1000 sample runs:

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Earlier Problem Revisited

Suppose you were at a county fair and saw a large jar full of gumballs, maybe 1000 of them, with a sign that said
“Guess the Number, Win a Prize!” If the rules of the game are that you could win a $10 prize by guessing within
200 gumballs either way, or a $50 prize by guessing within five gumballs either way, but you have to specify which
prize you are trying for before submitting your guess, which would you choose?
This problem/question is meant to give you an intuitive feeling for the concept of a confidence interval or confidence
level. It should be clear that you would have a greater level of confidence in trying for a $10 prize that you would
win simply by guessing within +/- 20% of the number, than in trying for $50 by guessing within +/- 0.5% of the
number!

Examples

Example 1

Suppose you took 40 unbiased random samples of the number of candies in a $0.75 bag of candy from a particular
factory. The factory states that the number of candies per bag is normally distributed. What can you say about the
mean number of candies in your sample?
Since the population is normally distributed, we can state that the mean of the sample follows the Empirical Rule.

Example 2

✓ has◆s = 2. If each sample includes data from 40 bags


Suppose the factory states that the number of candies per bag
of candies (n = 40), what is the standard error of the mean ps ?
n
The standard error of the mean is calculated as ps , so SEM = p2 = 2
6.32 = .31
n 40

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www.ck12.org Chapter 1. Confidence Intervals

Example 3

If the sample mean is 38 candies, within what interval could we expect 99 out of each 100 samples to contain the
population mean? What is that interval known as?
The interval is called the confidence interval, and it is calculated as x ± z a2 ⇥ s

38 ± z0.005 ⇥ .316
38 ± 2.58 ⇥ .316
38 ± 0.81528

Therefore, the confidence interval is approximately 37.18 to 38.82

Example 4

What is the more common way to describe the fact that “expect 99 out of each 100 samples contain the population
mean”?
Saying that you “expect 99 out of each 100 samples contain the population mean”, is the same as saying that the
interval has a 99% confidence level.

Review

1. What is a confidence interval?


2. What is the formula for calculating the confidence interval?
3. What is the difference between a confidence interval and a confidence level?
4. What is a margin of error?
5. How is the margin of error calculated?
6. What common misconception about confidence level is corrected by stating that a 99% confidence level means
that 99 out of 100 samples are expected to contain the population mean?
7. If a population is known to have an approximately normal distribution, but the standard deviation is unknown,
how can the population standard deviation be approximated?
8. If the sample mean is unknown, is it safe to use the population mean as the sample mean?
9. What Z-score corresponds to a 98% confidence interval?
10. What confidence interval is associated with a Z-score of 2.576, assuming a two-tailed test?
11. Which confidence level would describe a wider confidence interval, 80% or 85%?
12. A factory produces bags of marbles for a toy store. The factory has previously calculated that the s =
1 marble per bag. If you were to sample 35 bags and calculate µ = 40, within what range could you predict µ,
with 98% confidence?
13. Interpret your results from question 12, in context.
14. The manager of a clothing store is attempting to estimate the mean number of customers that pass through
her store each day. If the data from past estimates and other franchises suggests that s = 78, and the manager
has collected the customer counts in the table below from a SRS (Simple Random Sample), what can the manager
predict the range of customers to be, with 50% confidence?

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TABLE 1.1:
148 298 210 213 315 129 145 148 131 281 317

15. Interpret your answer from problem 14, in context.

Review (Answers)

To view the Review answers, open this PDF file and look for section 10.4.

Vocabulary

References

1. J.B. Hill. https://www.flickr.com/photos/jbhill/2747439395 .


2. geralt. http://pixabay.com/en/women-wall-stones-shadow-225399/?oq=girl%20group .
3. . . CC BY-NC-SA
4. . . CC BY-NC-SA

6
Student’s t-Distribution

Raja Almukkahal
Larry Ottman
Danielle DeLancey
Addie Evans
Ellen Lawsky
Brenda Meery

Say Thanks to the Authors


Click http://www.ck12.org/saythanks
(No sign in required)
AUTHORS
Raja Almukkahal
To access a customizable version of this book, as well as other
Larry Ottman
interactive content, visit www.ck12.org
Danielle DeLancey
Addie Evans
Ellen Lawsky
Brenda Meery
CK-12 Foundation is a non-profit organization with a mission to
reduce the cost of textbook materials for the K-12 market both in
the U.S. and worldwide. Using an open-source, collaborative, and
web-based compilation model, CK-12 pioneers and promotes the
creation and distribution of high-quality, adaptive online textbooks
that can be mixed, modified and printed (i.e., the FlexBook®
textbooks).

Copyright © 2016 CK-12 Foundation, www.ck12.org

The names “CK-12” and “CK12” and associated logos and the
terms “FlexBook®” and “FlexBook Platform®” (collectively
“CK-12 Marks”) are trademarks and service marks of CK-12
Foundation and are protected by federal, state, and international
laws.

Any form of reproduction of this book in any format or medium,


in whole or in sections must include the referral attribution link
http://www.ck12.org/saythanks (placed in a visible location) in
addition to the following terms.

Except as otherwise noted, all CK-12 Content (including CK-12


Curriculum Material) is made available to Users in accordance
with the Creative Commons Attribution-Non-Commercial 3.0
Unported (CC BY-NC 3.0) License (http://creativecommons.org/
licenses/by-nc/3.0/), as amended and updated by Creative Com-
mons from time to time (the “CC License”), which is incorporated
herein by this reference.

Complete terms can be found at http://www.ck12.org/about/


terms-of-use.

Printed: July 28, 2016


www.ck12.org Chapter 1. Student’s t-Distribution

C HAPTER
1 Student’s t-Distribution
• Use Student’s t distribution to estimate population mean interval for smaller samples.
• Understand how the shape of Student’s t distribution corresponds to the sample size (which corresponds to a
measure called the “degrees of freedom.”)

T-Distributions

Hypothesis Testing with Small Populations and Sample Sizes

Back in the early 1900’s a chemist at a brewery in Ireland discovered that when he was working with very small sam-
ples, the distributions of the mean differed significantly from the normal distribution. He noticed that as his sample
sizes changed, the shape of the distribution changed as well. He published his results under the pseudonym ’Student’
and this concept and the distributions for small sample sizes are now known as “Student’s t distributions.”
T distributions are a family of distributions that, like the normal distribution, are symmetrical and bell-shaped
and centered on a mean. However, the distribution shape changes as the sample size changes. Therefore, there is
a specific shape or distribution for every sample of a given size (see figure below; each distribution has a different
value of k, the number of degrees of freedom, which is 1 less than the size of the sample).

We use the Student’s t distribution in hypothesis testing the same way that we use the normal distribution. Each
row in the t distribution table (see link below) represents a different t distribution and each distribution is associated
with a unique number of degrees of freedom (the number of observations minus one). The column headings in the
table represent the portion of the area in the tails of the distribution - we use the numbers in the table just as we used
the z scores.
As the number of observations gets larger, the t distribution approaches the shape of the normal distribution. In
general, once the sample size is large enough - usually about 30 - we would use the normal distribution or the
z table instead. Note that usually in practice, if the standard deviation is known then the normal distribution is used
regardless of the sample size.
In calculating the t test statistic, we use the formula:

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x̄ µ0
t=
ps
n

where:
t is the test statistic and has n 1 degrees of freedom.
x̄ is the sample mean
µ0 is the population mean under the null hypothesis.
s is the sample standard deviation
n is the sample size
ps is the estimated standard error
n

MEDIA
Click image to the left or use the URL below.
URL: https://www.ck12.org/flx/render/embeddedobject/1103

Significance Testing

The high school athletic director is asked if football players are doing as well academically as the other student
athletes. We know from a previous study that the average GPA for the student athletes is 3.10. After an initiative to
help improve the GPA of student athletes, the athletic director samples 20 football players and finds that the average
GPA of the sample is 3.18 with a sample standard deviation of 0.54. Is there a significant improvement? Use a .05
significance level.
First, we establish our null and alternative hypotheses.

H0 : µ = 3.10
Ha : µ 6= 3.10

Next, we use our alpha level of .05 and the t distribution table to find our critical values. For a two-tailed test with
19 degrees of freedom and a .05 level of significance, our critical values are equal to ±2.093.
In calculating the test statistic, we use the formula:

x̄ µ0 3.18 3.10
t= = ⇡ 0.66
ps .54
p
n 20

This means that the observed sample mean 3.18 of football players is .66 standard errors above the hypothesized
value of 3.10. Because the value of the test statistic is less than the critical value of 2.093, we fail to reject the null
hypothesis.
Therefore, we can conclude that the difference between the sample mean and the hypothesized value is not sufficient
to attribute it to anything other than sampling error. Thus, the athletic director can conclude that the mean academic
performance of football players does not differ from the mean performance of other student athletes.

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www.ck12.org Chapter 1. Student’s t-Distribution

Calculating a Test Statistic

The masses of newly produced bus tokens are estimated to have a mean of 3.16 grams. A random sample of 11
tokens was removed from the production line and the mean weight of the tokens was calculated as 3.21 grams with
a standard deviation of 0.067. What is the value of the test statistic for a test to determine how the mean differs from
the estimated mean?

x̄ µ
t=
ps
n
3.21 3.16
t= 0.067
p
11
t ⇡ 2.48

If the value of t from the sample fits right into the middle of the distribution of t constructed by assuming the null
hypothesis is true, the null hypothesis is true. On the other hand, if the value of t from the sample is way out in the
tail of the t distribution, then there is evidence to reject the null hypothesis. Now that the distribution of t is known
when the null hypothesis is true, the location of this value on the distribution. The most common method used to
determine this is to find a p value (observed significance level). The p value is a probability that is computed with
the assumption that the null hypothesis is true.
The p value for a two-sided test is the area under the t distribution with d f = 11 1 = 10 that lies above t = 2.48
and below t = 2.48. This p value can be calculated by using technology.

Technology Note: Using the tcdf command to calculate probabilities associated with the

Press 2ND [DIST] Use # to select 5.tcdf (lower bound, upper bound, degrees of freedom). This will be the total area
under both tails. To calculate the area under one tail divide by 2.

There is only a .016 chance of getting an absolute value of t as large as or even larger than the one from this sample.
The small p value tells us that the sample is inconsistent with the null hypothesis. The population mean differs
from the estimated mean of 3.16.
When the p value is close to zero, there is strong evidence against the null hypothesis. When the p value is large,
the result from the sample is consistent with the estimated or hypothesized mean and there is no evidence against
the null hypothesis.
A visual picture of the P value can be obtained by using the graphing calculator.

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The spread of any t distribution is greater than that of a standard normal distribution. This is due to the fact that that
in the denominator of the formula s has been replaced with s. Since s is a random quantity changing with various
samples, the variability in t is greater, resulting in a larger spread.

Notice in the first distribution graph the spread of the first (inner curve) is small but in the second one the both
distributions are basically overlapping, so are roughly normal. This is due to the increase in the degrees of freedom.
Here are the t distributions for d f = 1 and for d f = 12 as graphed on the graphing calculator

You are now on the Y = screen.


Y = tpdf(X, 1)[Graph]

Repeat the steps to plot more than one t distribution on the same screen.
Notice the difference in the two distributions.
The one with 12 degrees of freedom approximates a normal curve.
The t distribution can be used with any statistic having a bell-shaped distribution. The Central Limit Theorem
states the sampling distribution of a statistic will be close to normal with a large enough sample size. As a rough
estimate, the Central Limit Theorem predicts a roughly normal distribution under the following conditions:

• The population distribution is normal.


• The sampling distribution is symmetric and the sample size is  15.
• The sampling distribution is moderately skewed and the sample size is 16  n  30.
• The sample size is greater than 30, without outliers.

The t distribution also has some unique properties. These properties are:

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www.ck12.org Chapter 1. Student’s t-Distribution

• The mean of the distribution equals zero.


• The population standard deviation is unknown.
• The variance is equal to the degrees of freedom divided by the degrees of freedom minus 2. This means that
the degrees of freedom must be greater than two to avoid the expression being undefined.
• The variance is always greater than one, although it approaches 1 as the degrees of freedom increase. This
is due to the fact that as the degrees of freedom increase, the distribution is becoming more of a normal
distribution.
• Although the Student t distribution is bell-shaped, the smaller sample sizes produce a flatter curve. The
distribution is not as mounded as a normal distribution and the tails are thicker. As the sample size increases
and approaches 30, the distribution approaches a normal distribution.
• The population is unimodal and symmetric.

Using Technology

Duracell manufactures batteries that the CEO claims will last 300 hours under normal use. A researcher randomly
selected 15 batteries from the production line and tested these batteries. The tested batteries had a mean life span
of 290 hours with a standard deviation of 50 hours. If the CEO’s claim were true, what is the probability that 15
randomly selected batteries would have a life span of no more than 290 hours?

x̄ µ
t= There are (n 1) = 14 degrees of freedom.
ps
n
290 300
t=
p50
15
10
t=
12.9099
t = .7745993

Using the graphing calculator or a table of values, the cumulative probability is 0.226, which means that if the true
life span of a battery were 300 hours, there is a 22.6% chance that the life span of the 15 tested batteries would be
less than or equal to 290 days. This is not a high enough level of confidence to reject the null hypothesis and count
the discrepancy as significant.

You are now on the Y = screen.


Y = tcdf( 1E99, .7745993, 14) = [0.226]

Examples

You have just taken ownership of a pizza shop. The previous owner told you that you would save money if you
bought the mozzarella cheese in a 4.5 pound slab. Each time you purchase a slab of cheese, you weigh it to ensure
that you are receiving 72 ounces of cheese. The results of 7 random measurements are 70, 69, 73, 68, 71, 69 and 71
ounces. Are these differences due to chance or is the distributor giving you less cheese than you deserve?

Example 1

State the hypotheses.

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For H0 the mean weight of cheese µ = 72; and for Ha : µ 6= 72.

Example 2

Calculate the test statistic.


Begin by determining the mean of the sample and the sample standard deviation. This can be done using the graphing
calculator. x̄ = 70.143 and s = 1.676.

x̄ µ
t=
ps
n
70.143 72
t= 1.676
p
7
t ⇡ 2.9315

Example 3

Find and interpret the p-value.


The test statistic computed in part b) was -2.9315. Using technology, the p value is .0262. If the mean weight of
cheese is 72 ounces, the probability that the weight of 7 random measurements would give a value of t greater than
2.9315 or less than -2.9315 is about 0.0262.

Example 4

Would the null hypothesis be rejected at the 10% level? The 5% level? The 1% level?
Because the p value of 0.0262 is less than both .10 and .05, the null hypothesis would be rejected at these levels.
However, the p value is greater than .01 so the null hypothesis would not be rejected if this level of confidence was
required.

Review

1. You intend to use simulation to construct an approximate t distribution with 8 degrees of freedom by taking
random samples from a population with bowling scores that are normally distributed with mean, µ = 110 and
standard deviation, s = 20.
a. Explain how you will do one run of this simulation.
b. Produce four values of t using this simulation.
2. The dean from UCLA is concerned that the students’ grade point averages have changed dramatically in
recent years. The graduating seniors’ mean GPA over the last five years is 2.75. The dean randomly samples
30 seniors from the last graduating class and finds that their mean GP is 2.85 with a sample standard deviation
of 0.65. Suppose that the dean samples only 30 students. Would a t distribution now be the appropriate
sampling distribution for the mean? Why or why not?
3. Using the appropriate t distribution, test the same null hypothesis with a sample of 30.
4. With a sample size of 30, do you need to have a larger or smaller difference between then hypothesized
population mean and the sample mean to obtain statistical significance than with a sample size of 256? Explain
your answer.
5. Is there a way to determine where the t statistic lies on a distribution?

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www.ck12.org Chapter 1. Student’s t-Distribution

6. If a way does exist, what is the meaning of its placement?

7. A department store claims that a customer spends an average of $25 per visit. A random sample of 36
customers is drawn and the sample mean is $18 with a standard deviation of 3. Test the claim with a 1% level
of significance.
8. A person claims that people spend an average of 10 hours a week watching a particular TV show. It is found, in
a random sample of 50 people, that the mean time watching this show was 11 hours with a standard deviation
of 1.2. Test the claim at the 1% level of significance.
9. A football coach claims that the average number of penalties per game is at least 19. A random sample of 45
games is drawn. The sample mean is 17 penalties with a standard deviation of 4. Test the claim at the .02
level.
10. An insurance agent claims that the average number of accidents per day is at most 7. A random sample of 60
days finds the mean number of accidents is 9 with a standard deviation of 4. Test the claim at the 5% level of
significance.
11. Give the value of the test statistic t in each of the following situations:
a. H0 : µ = 50, x̄ = 60, s = 90, n = 100
b. H0 : µ = 100, x̄ = 98, s = 15, n = 40
12. A company claims that the average distance to work for its employees is 3.7 miles. A random sample of
81 employees found an average commute of 4.1 miles to work with a standard deviation of 1.7 miles. The
company administrators believe this reflects a chance error. What do you think?
13. Test the hypothesis that the average weight of packages shipped by a certain mail order company in December
was no more than 6.0 pounds. A simple random sample of 144 packages that were shipped by the company in
December was selected for inspection. It was found that the average weight of the 144 parcels was 5.7 pounds
with a standard deviation of 2.1 pounds.
14. For each of the past two years, the average verbal SAT score of students entering a particular university was
612. A simple random sample of 150 students is taken from this year’s freshman class. The average SAT
verbal score for these students is 580 points, with a standard deviation of 75 points. Does this data indicate a
decline in the verbal scores of entering students?
15. A battery company claims that is battery can run a mechanical device for more than 50 minutes. 100 batteries
are tested and have an average life of 40.8 minutes with a standard deviation of 4.8 minutes. Can we accept
the company’s claim?
16. Find the p-value for each of the following situations.
a. H0 : µ = µ0 , Ha : µ > µ0 , n = 28,t = 2.00
b. H0 : µ = µ0 , Ha : µ > µ0 , n = 28,t = 2.00
c. H0 : µ = µ0 , Ha : µ 6= µ0 , n = 64,t = 2.00
d. H0 : µ = µ0 , Ha : µ 6= µ0 , n = 64,t = 2.00
17. Use a t-table to find the critical value and rejection region in each of the following situations.
a. Ha : µ > 100, n = 21, a = 0.5,t = 2.30
b. Ha : µ > 100, n = 21, a = 0.1,t = 2.30
c. Ha : µ 6= 100, n = 21, a = 0.5,t = 2.30
d. Ha : µ 6= 100, n = 21, a = 0.1,t = 2.30
18. Use the following data to test the hypothesis that the mean of the population is no more than 450. Use the data
set: 440 490 600 540 540 600 240 440 360 600 490 400 490 540 440 490

Review (Answers)

To view the Review answers, open this PDF file and look for section 8.5.

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