Equity Research

Company Update

Monday,19 April 2021

BUY Pembangunan Perumahan(PTPP IJ)

Maintain Assets divestment
Last price (IDR) 1,220 Three assets are being offered to new investors and the transaction is
Target Price (IDR) 1,800
targeted to be done this year. PTPP is looking to raise IDR2.2tn of fresh funds
from the divestment, with IDR1.2tn of potential gains. The assets are being
Upside/Downside +47.5% offered directly to the investors and not through the newly established
Previous Target Price (IDR) 2,600 Indonesia SWF. Meanwhile, two bonds of IDR1.4tn in total are going to
mature this year. As such, PTPP plans to issue bonds with a total value of
Stock Statistics IDR2.0tn in the first stage. We maintain our BUY call on the company.
Sector Construction Assets divestment. There are 3 assets in the pipeline to be offered to the new
Bloomberg Ticker PTPP IJ investors with total targeted proceeds of IDR2.2tn, with IDR1.2tn of potential
gains. All the assets are being offered directly to the investors and not through
No of Shrs (mn) 6,200
the newly established SWF. They are: 1) Jasamarga Kualanamu Tol (JMKT), the
Mkt. Cap (IDRbn/USDmn) 7,564/519 concession holder of the Medan – Kualanamu – Tebing Tinggi toll road. PTPP
Avg. daily T/O (IDRbn/USDmn) 118.7/8.1 has signed a CSPA with King Keys as the potential buyer. PTPP targets IDR412bn
of proceeds for its 15% stake. This translates to a 1.95x PBV based on initial
Major shareholders (%) equity and 2.61x based on the Dec20 valuation. Thus, PTPP might book
Government 51.0
IDR200bn of gains from this divestment. The divestment is targeted to be
completed by Apr/May21.
Public 49.0
… 2) Jasamarga Pandaan Malang (JPM), the Pandaan – Malang toll road. PTPP
owns a 35% stake in JPM translating to IDR492bn of equity per Dec20. PTPP
EPS Consensus (IDR)
seeks to raise IDR1.4tn of proceeds, with IDR908bn of gains from the
divestment. This is based on a valuation of 2.85x based on equity as of Dec20
2021F 2022F 2023F or 2.25x based on the initial equity. The divestment of JPM is targeted to be
Danareksa 64.1 109.5 148.6 done by 3Q21, and 3) Prima Multi Terminal (PMT), the Kuala Tanjung port in
Consensus 71.2 112.4 140.2 North Sumatra. PTPP’s stake is 25% which is equivalent to IDR305bn of equity
value per Dec20. Targeted proceeds are IDR378bn, including IDR73bn of gains.
Danareksa/Cons (9.9) (2.5) 6.0
As such, the valuation is at 1.24x based on equity per Dec20 or 1.03x based on
PTPP relative to JCI Index initial equity. (see exhibit 8.)
Maturing bonds and the repayment. Two PTPP bonds will mature in Jul21, with
a total value of IDR1.4tn. As the proceeds from the assets divestment will be
used for continuing the development of projects in the pipeline, PTPP plans to
raise IDR4.0tn in total through the issuance of new bonds. In the first stage, the
total amount to be raised is expected to reach IDR2.0tn, consisting of
conventional bonds of IDR1.5tn and sukuk of IDR500bn. PTPP booked
IDR18.6tn of debts as of Dec20, resulting in a 1.32x DER and 2.28x ICR. PTPP still
has room for fundraising through debts issuance.
2021 targets. We expect FY21 new contracts to increase by 30%yoy to
IDR29.0tn (FY19: IDR22.3tn) resulting in a IDR97.9tn order book (+8.5%yoy;
FY20: IDR90.3tn). As such, we arrive at targeted revenues of IDR17.9tn and
targeted net income of IDR397bn.
Maintain BUY. We maintain our BUY call on PTPP with a new TP of IDR1,800.
Source : Bloomberg Our new TP is based on the average historical PE of 27.0x.
Key Financials
Year to 31 Jan 2019A 2020A 2021F 2022F 2023F
Revenue (IDRbn) 24,660 15,831 17,867 22,869 25,021
EBITDA (IDRbn) 3,401 2,543 2,787 3,479 3,855
EBITDA Growth (%) (4.0) (25.2) 9.6 24.8 10.8
Net profit (IDRbn) 930 138 397 679 922
EPS (IDR) 150.1 22.2 64.1 109.5 148.6
EPS growth (%) (38.1) (85.2) 189.0 70.8 35.7
BVPS (IDR) 2,166.9 1,713.6 1,807.7 1,941.2 2,107.5
x Maria Renata DPS (IDR) 48.5 33.8 5.0 14.4 24.6
(62-21) 5091 4100 ext. 3513 PER (x) 8.1 55.0 19.0 11.1 8.2
maria.renata@danareksa.co.id PBV (x) 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6
Dividend yield (%) 4.0 2.8 0.4 1.2 2.0
EV/EBITDA (x) 4.4 7.3 7.0 5.0 4.3
Source : PTPP, BRI Danareksa Estimates
www.danareksa.com See important disclosure at the back of this report 1
 Exhibit 1. Revenues and Growth Exhibit 2. Net Profits and Growth

Source: Company, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas estimates Source: Company, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas estimates

Exhibit 3. Margins Exhibit 4. Gearing Level

Source: Company, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas estimates Source: Company, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas estimates

Exhibit 5. PE Band Chart Exhibit 6. Share Price Chart

80 10,000
70 9,000
60 8,000

50 +2SD: 53.8x 7,000

6,000 75.0x
40 +1SD: 40.3x
5,000
30 60.0x
Avg.: 26.8x 4,000
20 45.0x
3,000
10 -1SD: 13.3x 30.0x
2,000
0 -2SD: -0.2x 1,000 15.0x
-10 -
May-20
May-19

Jan-21

Mar-21
Jan-19

Mar-19

Jan-20

Mar-20
Jul-19

Nov-19

Jul-20

Nov-20
Sep-19

Sep-20

Sep-19

Sep-20
May-19

May-20
Jan-19

Mar-19

Jan-20

Mar-20

Nov-20

Jan-21

Mar-21
Jul-19

Nov-19

Jul-20

Source: Bloomberg, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas estimates Source: Bloomberg, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas estimates

www.danareksa.com See important disclosure at the back of this report 2

 Exhibit 7. PTPP’s assets on investment
Name of associates (as of Dec20) % IDR Bn Notes
Investment in associates
Jasamarga Pandaan Malang 35.0% 492 Construction and development of toll road
Prima Multi Terminal 25.0% 305 Construction and operational port
Indonesia Ferry Properti 49.0% 89 Realty and property
Sinergi Investasi Properti 20.0% 88 Service, construction, and trade
Menara Maritim Indonesia 30.0% 65 Realty and property
Sentul PP Properti 49.0% 51 Realty and property
Inpola Meka Energi 38.8% 44 Power plant
Aryan PP Properti 49.0% 42 Realty and property
Celebes Railways Indonesia 45.0% 38 Service, construction, and trade
Solo Citra Metro Plasma Power 40.0% 33 Power plant
Jababeka PP Properti 49.0% 31 Realty and property
Teknik Rekayasa Kereta Kapsul 46.0% 24 Service, construction, and trade
PP Sinergi Banjaratma 32.5% 20 Realty and property
Alam Inti Energi 30.0% 18 Power plant
Pekanbaru Permai Propertindo 40.0% 17 Hotel
Hotel Karya Indonesia 25.0% 16 Realty and property
Perusahaan Ressort Indonesia Amerika 40.0% 11 Accomodations services
Jasamarga Rest Area Batang 27.0% 7 Rest area and trading
Total - investment in associates 1,390
Investments in joint ventures
PPRO - Artha Karya Manunggal Jaya 75% : 25% KSO Perkasa Abadi
PPRO - Grand Soho Slipi 90% : 10% KSO Grand Soho
Surya Mina Bunkerindo - Asinusa Putra Sekawan 80% : 20% Tangki timbun Nimpa
LMA - Pembangunan Sarana Perkasa 51% : 49% Kediri International Airport
Total - investments in joint ventures 271
Other long-term investments
Jasamarga Balikpapan Samarinda 15.0% 492 Construction and development of toll road
Wijaya Karya Serang Panimbang 7.8% 293 Construction and development of toll road
Meulaboh Power Generation 34.0% 235 Power plant
Jasamarga Kualanamu Tol 15.0% 212 Construction and development of toll road
Jasamarga Manado Bitung 15.0% 167 Construction and development of toll road
Citra Wasshutowa 12.5% 166 Construction and development of toll road
Muba Daya Pratama 18.0% 11 Electricity producer
Jasamarga Jogja Bawen 12.5% 5 Construction and development of toll road
Pancakarya Grahatama 15.0% 4 Business park, commercial area, and hotel
Mitra Cipta Polasarana 4.7% 2 Office spare rental
Pembangkitan Perkasa Daya 5.0% 0 Electricity producer
PP Taisei 15.0% 0 Construction
Total - other long-term investments 1,586
Total investments 3,247
Total Assets 53,472
% 6.1%
Source: Company

Exhibit 8. Three assets are being offered to investors

Proceeds Equity value (IDR Bn) PBV (x) Gain
%
(IDR Bn) As of Dec'20 Initial As of Dec'20 Initial (IDR Bn)
Jasamarga Kualanamu Tol (JMKT) 15.0% 412 158 211 2.61 1.95 254
Jasamarga Pandaan Malang 35.0% 1,400 492 622 2.85 2.25 908
Prima Multi Terminal 25.0% 378 305 366 1.24 1.03 73
Total 2,190 955 1,199 1,235

Source: Company, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas estimates

www.danareksa.com See important disclosure at the back of this report 3

 Exhibit 9. Changes in our forecast
New Old Chg (%) YoY (%)
2020 2021 2022 2021 2022 2021 2022 2021 2022
New contracts 22,261 28,939 33,280 25,041 28,797 15.6% 15.6% 30.0% 15.0%
Carry over 68,000 69,000 74,198 71,347 73,004 -3.3% 1.6% 1.5% 7.5%
Order book 90,261 97,939 107,478 96,389 101,801 1.6% 5.6% 8.5% 9.7%
Revenues 15,831 17,867 22,869 18,128 23,262 -1.4% -1.7% 12.9% 28.0%
Gross profit 2,173 2,474 3,253 2,256 3,306 9.7% -1.6% 13.8% 31.5%
Op.profit 2,040 2,144 2,787 1,871 2,793 14.6% -0.2% 5.1% 30.0%
Net profit 138 397 679 439 780 -9.4% -13.0% 189.0% 70.8%
GPM (%) 13.7% 13.8% 14.2% 12.4% 14.2%
OPM (%) 12.9% 12.0% 12.2% 10.3% 12.0%
NPM (%) 0.9% 2.2% 3.0% 2.4% 3.4%
Burn rate(%) 17.5% 18.2% 21.3% 18.8% 22.9%
Source: BRI Danareksa Sekuritas estimates

www.danareksa.com See important disclosure at the back of this report 4

 Exhibit 10. Income Statement
Year to 31 Jan (IDRbn) 2019A 2020A 2021F 2022F 2023F
Revenue 24,660 15,831 17,867 22,869 25,021
COGS (21,175) (13,658) (15,393) (19,617) (21,463)
Gross profit 3,485 2,173 2,474 3,253 3,557
EBITDA 3,401 2,543 2,787 3,479 3,855
Oper. profit 2,857 2,040 2,144 2,787 3,114
Interest income 0 0 0 0 0
Interest expense (782) (895) (877) (993) (974)
Forex Gain/(Loss) 0 0 0 0 0
Income From Assoc. Co’s (108) (214) (247) (271) (298)
Other Income (Expenses) 58 (175) 26 7 21
Pre-tax profit 2,025 756 1,046 1,530 1,862
Income tax (817) (489) (495) (678) (757)
Minority interest (278) (129) (154) (173) (184)
Net profit 930 138 397 679 922
Core Net Profit 1,121 426 446 735 983

Exhibit 11. Balance Sheet

Year to 31 Jan (IDRbn) 2019A 2020A 2021F 2022F 2023F
Cash & cash equivalent 9,105 7,512 6,305 8,228 8,225
Receivables 22,853 12,791 16,060 19,930 21,805
Inventory 6,338 9,525 8,424 9,031 9,862
Other Curr. Asset 2,783 3,536 3,584 3,988 4,165
Fixed assets - Net 7,425 7,117 7,174 7,182 7,141
Other non-curr.asset 10,036 12,430 12,982 13,566 14,268
Total asset 59,166 53,472 55,119 62,543 66,115

ST Debt 6,379 8,442 6,331 6,921 7,292

Payables 21,994 16,295 17,238 22,822 24,936
Other Curr. Liabilities 2,119 3,250 3,041 3,330 3,561
Long Term Debt 9,979 10,114 11,978 11,218 9,994
Other LT. Liabilities 1,370 1,365 1,602 1,751 1,907
Total Liabilities 41,839 39,465 40,190 46,043 47,691
Shareholder'sFunds 13,434 10,624 11,208 12,035 13,067
Minority interests 3,892 3,383 3,721 4,465 5,358
Total Equity & Liabilities 59,166 53,472 55,119 62,543 66,115

www.danareksa.com See important disclosure at the back of this report 5

 Exhibit 12. Cash Flow
Year to 31 Jan (IDRbn) 2019A 2020A 2021F 2022F 2023F
Net income 930 138 397 679 922
Depreciation and Amort. 544 503 643 692 741
Change in Working Capital (2,244) 1,794 (1,497) 979 (551)
OtherOper. Cash Flow 1,069 623 1,071 1,095 1,080
Operating Cash Flow 300 3,057 615 3,445 2,191

Capex (1,981) (2,299) (878) (887) (896)

Others Inv. Cash Flow (1,153) (91) (384) (408) (518)
Investing Cash Flow (3,134) (2,391) (1,262) (1,295) (1,414)

Net change in debt 4,127 2,198 (246) (170) (853)

New Capital 0 (22) 0 0 0
Dividend payment (300) (209) (31) (89) (153)
Other Fin. Cash Flow (511) (4,231) (283) 32 226
Financing Cash Flow 3,315 (2,264) (560) (228) (780)

Net Change in Cash 481 (1,598) (1,207) 1,922 (2)

Cash - begin of the year 8,647 9,105 7,512 6,305 8,228
Cash - end of the year 9,105 7,512 6,305 8,228 8,225

Exhibit 13. Key Ratios

Year to 31 Jan 2019A 2020A 2021F 2022F 2023F
Growth (%)
Sales (1.8) (35.8) 12.9 28.0 9.4
EBITDA (4.0) (25.2) 9.6 24.8 10.8
Operating profit (6.2) (28.6) 5.1 30.0 11.7
Net profit (38.1) (85.2) 189.0 70.8 35.7
Profitability (%)
Gross margin 14.1 13.7 13.8 14.2 14.2
EBITDA margin 13.8 16.1 15.6 15.2 15.4
Operating margin 11.6 12.9 12.0 12.2 12.4
Net margin 3.8 0.9 2.2 3.0 3.7
ROAA 1.7 0.2 0.7 1.2 1.4
ROAE 7.1 1.1 3.6 5.8 7.3
Leverage
Net Gearing (x) 0.4 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.5
Interest Coverage (x) 3.7 2.3 2.4 2.8 3.2

Source : PTPP, Danareksa Estimates

www.danareksa.com See important disclosure at the back of this report 6