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Sensitivity Analysis
Sensitivity Analysis
Sensitivity Analysis
Suppose that you have just completed a linear programming solution which will have major
impact on your company, such as determining how much to increase the overall production
capacity, and are about to present the results to the board of directors. How confident are you in
the results? How much will the results change if your basic data (e.g. profit per item produced, or
availability of a component) is slightly wrong? Will that have a minor impact on your results?
Will it give a completely different outcome, or change the outcome only slightly?
These are the kinds of questions addressed by sensitivity analysis. Formally, the question is this:
is my optimum solution (both the values of the variables and the value of the objective function)
sensitive to a small change in one of the original problem coefficients (e.g. coefficients of the
variables in the objective function or constraints, or the right hand side constants in the
constraints)? If Z or the X1 change when an original coefficient is changed, then we say that the
LP is sensitive. We could ask, for example, if the Acme Bicycle Company solution is sensitive to
a reduction in the availability of the metal finishing machine from 4 hours per day to only 3 (i.e.
a change in the third constraint from X1+X2 ≤ 4 to X1+X2 ≤ 3).
This sort of examination of the impact of the input data on the output results is crucial. The
procedures and algorithms of mathematical programming are important, but the problems that
really bedevil you in practice are usually associated with data: getting it at all, and getting
accurate data. Some data, necessary for your mathematical model, is inherently uncertain.
Consider profit per item, for example, which is approximated from estimates of the fluctuating
costs of raw materials, expected sales volumes, labor costs, etc. What you want to know from
sensitivity analysis is which data has a significant impact on the results: then you can concentrate
on getting accurate data for those items, or at least running through several scenarios with
various values of the crucial data in place to get an idea of the range of possible outcomes.
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There are several ways to approach sensitivity analysis. If your model is small enough to solve
quite quickly, you can use a brute force approach: simply change the initial data and solve the
model again to see what results you get. You can do this as many times as needed. At the
opposite extreme, if your model is very large and takes a long time to solve, you can apply the
formal methods of classical sensitivity analysis. The classical methods rely on the relationship
between the initial tableau and any later tableau (in particular the optimum tableau) to quickly
update the optimum solution when changes are made to the coefficients of the original tableau.
One final observation on the state of the art in sensitivity analysis: you are typically limited to
analyzing the impact of changing only one coefficient at a time. There are a few accepted
techniques for changing several coefficients at once: the 100% rule, and parametric
programming. The 100% rule is typically limited to changing only a few coefficients at once,
with tight limits on how much they can change, and parametric programming changes all of the
coefficients in ratio.
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DEFINITION
Sensitivity analysis (SA) is the study of how the variation (uncertainty) in the output of a
mathematical model can be apportioned, qualitatively or quantitatively, to different sources of
variation in the input of a model
Sensitivity Analysis provides a range of probability over which the choice of alternative would
remain the same. The approach implemented here is useful when there are two states of nature. It
involves constructing a graph and then using algebra to determine a range of probability over
which the various alternatives are optimal, and the algebra provides exact values of the endpoints
of the ranges.
In most real world situations that are modeled using LP, conditions are dynamic and changing.
Hence, input data such as resource availabilities, prices, and costs used in the LP model are
estimated, rather than known with certainty. In such environments, sensitivity analysis can be
used to identify the ranges of values of these input data for which the current LP solution
remains optimal. This is done without solving the problem again each time we need to examine a
change in an input data’s value.
Sensitivity analysis is a systematic study of how sensitive (duh) solutions are to (small) changes
in the data. The basic idea is to be able to give answers to questions of the form:
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A change in an objective function coefficient changes the slope of the objective function, with
respect to that variable. The change in the slope may be sufficient to make a different corner
point become the new optimal solution to the LP model.
For one or more selected input parameters, the user specifies a Minimum and a
Maximum value.
Each parameter is then varied in uniform increments, between the Minimum and
Maximum values, and the safety factor of the Global Minimum slip surface is calculated
at each value. NOTE: while a parameter is being varied, ALL OTHER input parameters
are held constant, at their MEAN values.
This results in a plot of safety factor versus the input parameter(s), and allows you to
determine the “sensitivity” of the safety factor, to changes in the input parameter(s).
A steeply changing curve on a Sensitivity Plot, indicates that the safety factor is sensitive
to the value of the parameter.
A relatively “flat” curve indicates that the safety factor is not sensitive to the value of the
parameter.
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A sensitivity analysis indicates which input parameters may be critical to the assessment
of slope stability, and which input parameters are less important
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WHY SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS?
The following is a condensed list of reasons why sensitivity analysis should be considered:
Identifying critical values, thresholds, or breaking-even values where the optimal strategy
changes.
Communication
The decision maker might incorporate some other perspectives of the problem such as
cultural, political, psychological, etc., into the management scientist's recommendations.
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Increase Understanding or qualification of the system
Model development
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APPLICATIONS OF SENSITIVITY
ANALYSIS
Environmental
Computer environmental models are increasingly used in a wide variety of studies and
applications. For example global climate model are used for both short term weather forecasts
and long term climate change.
Moreover, computer models are increasingly used for environmental decision making at a local
scale, for example for assessing the impact of a waste water treatment plant on a river flow, or
for assessing the behavior and life length of bio-filters for contaminated waste water.
In both cases sensitivity analysis may help understanding the contribution of the various sources
of uncertainty to the model output uncertainty and system performance in general. In these cases,
depending on model complexity, different sampling strategies may be advisable and traditional
sensitivity indexes have to be generalized to cover multivariate sensitivity analysis,
heterokedastic effects and correlated inputs.
Business
In a decision problem, the analyst may want to identify cost drivers as well as other quantities for
which we need to acquire better knowledge in order to make an informed decision. On the other
hand, some quantities have no influence on the predictions, so that we can save resources at no
loss in accuracy by relaxing some of the conditions. See Corporate finance: Quantifying
uncertainty. Sensitivity analysis can help in a variety of other circumstances which can be
handled by the settings illustrated below:
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IMPORTANCE OF SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
Sensitivity analysis is important in all decision modeling techniques. For example, it is important
in breakeven analysis to test the model’s sensitivity to selling price, fixed cost, and variable cost.
Likewise, it is important in inventory models in which we tests the result’s sensitivity to changes
in demand, lead time, costs, and so on.
With controlling the problems, SA may help to identify critical regions in the space of the
input parameters.
In screening exercises, SA may help to locate a few influential parameters in systems
with hundreds of uncertain inputs.
Variance based SA techniques are useful to ascertain if a subset of input parameters may
account for (most of) the output variance.
Point (3) above may be used for mechanism reduction (dropping or fixing non relevant
parts of the model) and for model lumping (building/extracting a model from a more
complex one). See also the problem of model "relevance": are the parameters in the
model input set relevant to the task of the model?
Point (3) above may also be used for model identification by pinpointing the
experimental conditions for which your ability to discriminate among the model is at
maximum.
As in (5) above, SA may be used for model calibration, to ascertain if the experiments
with its related uncertainties will allow parameter estimation. This is especially useful
against ill-conditioned (formulated) problems.
SA may be coupled to optimization / search algorithms; by identifying the most
important parameters, SA may allow the dimensionality of the space where the search is
made to be reduced.
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As a quality assurance tool, SA makes sure that the dependence of the output from the
input parameters in the model has a physical resemblance and explanation.
To solve an inverse problem, SA serves as a tool to extract parameters embedded into
models whose output does not correlate easily with the unknown input (e.g., in chemical
kinetics, to extract kinetic constants of complex systems from the measured yield rate of
components.
To optimally allocate resources in R&D, SA shows where it is more worthwhile to invest
in order to reduce the model's range of uncertainty.
SA can ascertain on a quantitative basis what fraction of my prediction uncertainty is due
to parametric estimation uncertainty and how much to structural uncertainty.
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VARIOUS SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS ACTIVITIES
WITH THEIR LIMITATIONS
Given the outcome of a linear program formulation and calculation for the solution a series of
analysis can provide valuable management information to deal with uncertainties. These
uncertainty ranges can be obtained by performing the following different types of sensitivity
analysis depending on the nature of the uncertainty: perturbation analysis; tolerance analysis;
individual symmetric tolerance analysis; symmetric tolerance analysis; parametric sensitivity
analysis; and ordinary sensitivity analysis.
Perturbation Analysis: Simultaneous and independent changes in the any parameter in either
direction (over or under estimation) for each parameter that maintain the optimal basis. This
provides the largest set of perturbations.
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Parametric Analysis: Simultaneous changes of dependent parameter values from their nominal
values that maintain the optimal basis. This provides the maximum magnitude of change for
values of dependent parameters.
Ordinary Sensitivity Analysis: One change-at-a-time in any parameter value that maintains the
optimal basis. This provides a range for the change of any specific parameter value, holding all
others at their nominal values.
In performing the above various type of sensitivity analysis, the needed computations are some
elementary matrix manipulations of the readily available tools for construction of the sensitivity
region.
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SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
GENERAL LP PROBLEM
Dr Feeroze
ICI Pakistan produces both Oil paints and Plastic paints from two raw materials, M1 and M2.
The following table provides the basic data of the problem:
Construction of LP model
Decision Variables
Objective Function
Subject To
5X1 + 10X2 ≤ 60
4X1 + 4X2 ≤ 40
X1 and X2 ≥ 0
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Graphical LP Solution
Line Side
• Decision Variables The closed polygonal A-B-C-D are the feasible region.
• Objective Function
− P max = 6X1 + 8X2
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− Changing in the objective function coefficient will cause the slope of objective function to
change such changes causes the object function line to rotate about extreme points.
− Slope of constraint of material one (Line A) provide upper limit for the slop of objective
function line.
− Slope of constraint of material two (Line B) provide lower limit for the slop of objective
function line.
c k wise
Clo
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For the slope of Objective Function
As we know that,
Y= mX + C ( Slope intercept form )
X2 = -(cx1/cx2) + P/cx2
Slope = m = - (cx1/cx2)
-1 ≤ -(cx1/cx2) ≤ -1/2
-1 ≤ -(cx1/cx2) ≤ -1/2
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-1 ≤ -(cx1/cx2) ≤ -1/2
5X1 + 10X2 ≤ 60
4X1 + 4X2 ≤ 40
Most of the LP models, constraints usually represent the usage of limited resources. Such
constraints, the right hand side provides the limit on the availability of the resources.
Analysis provides a single measure, called the unit worth of the resource or shadow price, that
quantifies the rate of change in the optimum value in the objective function as a result of making
changes in the availability of the recourses.
When the availability of M1 and M2 changes (increase or decrease) line of constraint move on
RHS or LHS respectively.
End points B(10,0) & E(0, 10) delineate the feasibility range for M1 and points D (0,6) & F(12,0)
delineate the feasibility range for M2.
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F (12,0)
B = (10, 0) D = (0,6)
E = (0,10) F = (12,0)
At point B At point F
5(10) + 10(0) = 50 4(12) + 4(0) = 48
At point E At point D
5(0) + 10(10) = 100 4(0) + 4(6) = 24
Constraint 1 Constraint 2
5X1 + 10X2 ≤ 66 4X1 + 4X2 ≤ 46
5X1 + 10X2 = 66 4X1 + 4X2 = 46
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P = 6X1 + 8X2 P = 6X1 + 8X2
6(6.8) + 8(3.3) = 67.2 6(0.5) + 8(11) = 91
Increased profit occur at the rate of Increased profit occur at the rate of
4.8/6=0.8 per ton of material 1 27/6=4.5 per ton of material 2
C` (6.8,3.3)
C` (0.5,11)
B = (10, 0) D = (0,6)
E = (0,10) F = (12,0)
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Change in Constraints for M1 Change in Constraints for M2
5X1 + 10X2 ≤ 60 4X1 + 4X2 ≤ 40
B = (10, 0) D = (0,6)
E = (0,10) F = (12,0)
At point B At point F
5(10) + 10(0) = 50 4(12) + 4(0) = 48
At point E At point D
5(0) + 10(10) = 100 4(0) + 4(6) = 24
Worth per unit for material 1 Worth per unit for material 2
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CONCLUSION
Graphical LP Solution
Value of profit (P) is maximum (64000) when ICI Produce 8 tons of Oil paints and 2 tons of
Plastic paints.
Shadow Price: The change in the value of the optimal solution per unit increase in the right
hand side of the constraints is called the shadow price.
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SUMMERY
Sensitivity analysis is the study of how changes in the coefficient of a linear program affect the
optimal solution. First we describe the concept of sensitivity analysis that the basic idea is to be
able to give answers to questions of the form, if the objective function changes, how does the
solution change? And if resources available change, how does the solution change?
Then we discus about sensitivity analysis business and environmental applications. In business
decision problem, the analyst may want to identify cost drivers as well as other quantities for
which we need to acquire better knowledge in order to make an informed decision for which they
use sensitivity analysis. In environmental sensitivity analysis may help understanding the
contribution of the various sources of uncertainty to the model output uncertainty and system
performance in general.
After this we discuss the importance of sensitivity analysis. Sensitivity analysis is important in
all decision modeling techniques. Various sensitivity analysis activities and their limitations
provide us valuable management information to deal with uncertainties. These uncertainty ranges
can be obtained by performing the following different types of sensitivity analysis depending on
the nature of the uncertainty: perturbation analysis; tolerance analysis; individual symmetric
tolerance analysis; symmetric tolerance analysis; parametric sensitivity analysis; and ordinary
sensitivity analysis.
Then we show how a graphical method can be used to determine how a change in one of the
objective function coefficients or a change in the right hand side value for a constraint will affect
the optimal solution to the problem. By explain problem formulation, Sensitivity analysis and the
interpretation of the solution of ICI problem.
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