Volume 3 - 2021 - Tech - Trends - NewRealities - SynthMedia - Shared - by - WorldLine - Technology

Volume 3 of 12
14th Annual Edition
2021 New
Realities
Tech Trends Synthetic
Media
Report News
Strategic trends that will influence business, Information
government, education, media and society
in the coming year.
New Realities, Synthetic Media,
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News & Information
03 Overview 24 Using Synthetic Media to Get

04 Macro Forces and Emerging Trends Around Copyright Laws
06 Summary 24 Synthetic Media Marketplaces
08 New Realities 24 Truth Decay in an Era
of Synthetic Media
09 Keeping Track of New Realities
25 News and Information
10 Diminished Reality
26 Expert Insight: How the News Industry
11 Smart Eyewear and
Must Evolve to Fit into Daily Life
Head-Mounted Displays
28 Cancel Culture and
12 AR for the Enterprise
Accountability Politics
13 Holograms
29 Sensory Journalism
14 Scenario: Eco-Sight
30 Geography Reshapes the Virtual World
15 Spatial Displays
31 Scenario: Reality Prescriptions
16 360° Video
32 The End of Attention Metrics
16 Volumetric Video
33 Digital Frailty
16 Spatial Audio
34 Sensitive Content Warnings
16 WebAR/WebVR
35 New Search Interfaces
16 The Metaverse
36 Expert Insight: New Horizons
17 Expert Insight: The Future in Book Publishing
of Live Entertainment
39 Journalism-as-a-Service
20 Synthetic Media and Content
40 One-to-Few Networks
22 Synthetic Media Technologies
41 Media Consolidation
22 Speech Synthesis
42 I-Teams for Algorithms and Data
22 Modulating Custom Voices
43 The Subscription Economy Matures
22 Deep Behaviors and Predictive
44 Trust in Media
Machine Vision
45 The First Amendment in a Digital Age
22 Generative Algorithms for Voice,
Sound, and Video 46 Scenario: AutoINcorrecting History
22 Mapped Synthetic Environments 47 Application
23 Synthetic Media and Society 48 Key Questions
23 Live Portraits 49 Sources
23 Synth-pop Makes a Comeback 50 Authors
23 Simulating Human Experiences 54 Why FTI
23 Synthetic Voice Fraud 55 About FTI
24 Synthetic Sex Tapes 56 Disclaimer
24 Synthetic Property Rights 57 Creative Commons License
and Legal Protections
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News & Information
Overview
The 1920s began in chaos. Cata- It’s difficult not to see striking ed trends. In total, we’ve analyzed
clysmic disruption resulting from parallels to our modern world. A nearly 500 technology and science
the first world war and the Spanish tumultuous U.S. election, extreme trends across multiple industry
flu shuttered businesses and pro- weather events and Covid-19 sectors. In each volume, we discuss
voked xenophobia. Technological continue to test our resolve and the disruptive forces, opportunities
marvels like the radio, refrigerator, our resilience. Exponential tech- and strategies that will drive your
vacuum cleaner, moving assembly nologies—artificial intelligence, organization in the near future.
line and electronic power trans- synthetic biology, exascale com-
Now, more than ever, your organi-
mission generated new growth, puting, autonomous robots, and
zation should examine the poten-
even as the wealth gap widened. off-planet missions to space—are
tial near and long-term impact of
More than two-thirds of Ameri- challenging our assumptions about
tech trends. You must factor the
cans survived on wages too low to human potential. Under lockdown,
trends in this report into your stra-
sustain everyday living. The pace we’ve learned how to work from
tegic thinking for the coming year,
of scientific innovation—the dis- our kitchen tables, lead from our
and adjust your planning, opera-
covery of insulin, the first modern spare rooms, and support each
tions and business models accord-
antibiotics, and insights into theo- other from afar. But this disruption
ingly. But we hope you will make
retical physics and the structure of has only just begun.
time for creative exploration. From
atoms—forced people to reconsid-
With the benefit of both hindsight chaos, a new world will come.
er their cherished beliefs.
and strategic foresight, we can
The sheer scale of change, and the choose a path of reinvention. Our
great uncertainty that came with 2021 Tech Trends Report is de-
it, produced two factions: those signed to help you confront deep
who wanted to reverse time and uncertainty, adapt and thrive. For Amy Webb
return the world to normal, and this year’s edition, the magnitude
Founder
those who embraced the chaos, of new signals required us to cre-
The Future Today Institute
faced forward, and got busy build- ate 12 separate volumes, and each
ing the future. report focuses on a cluster of relat-
03 © 2021 Future Today Institute

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6
Macro Forces and

Emerging Trends 2 3 4 5
For nearly two decades, the Future Today Institute has meticulously re-
searched macro forces of change and the emerging trends that result.
Our focus: understanding how these forces and trends will shape our
futures. Our 14th annual Tech Trends Report identifies new opportunities
for growth and potential collaborations in and adjacent to your business.
We also highlight emerging or atypical threats across most industries,
including all levels of government. For those in creative fields, you will find
a wealth of new ideas that will spark your imagination.
Our framework organizes nearly 500 trends into 12 clear categories.
Within those categories are specific use cases and recommendations for
key roles in many organizations: strategy, innovation, R&D, and risk.
Each trend offers six important insights.
1. Years on the List 2. Key Insight 4. Disruptive Impact 6. Action Scale Informs Strategy
We track longitudinal tech and Concise description of this trend The implications of this trend on FTI’s analysis of what action your Strong evidence and data. Longer-
science trends. This measurement that can be easily understood and your business, government, or organization should take. Fields term uncertainties remain. Use it to
indicates how long we have repeated to others. society. include: inform your strategic planning.
followed the trend and its
progression. 3. Examples 5. Emerging Players Watch Closely Act Now
Real-world use cases, some of Individuals, research teams, Mounting evidence and data, but Ample evidence and data. This
which should be familiar to you. startups, and other organizations more maturity is needed. Use it to trend is already mature and
emerging in this space. inform your vision, planning, and requires action.
research.
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News & Information
Macro Forces and

Emerging Trends
Scenarios Describe Plausible Outcomes

You will find scenarios imagining future worlds as trends evolve and
converge. Scenarios offer a fresh perspective on trends and often chal-
lenge your deeply held beliefs. They prompt you to consider high-impact,
high-uncertainty situations using signals available today. 1
1. Headline 2
A short description offering you a glimpse into future changes.
2. Temporal and Emotive Tags 3

A label explaining both when in the future this scenario is set and whether it is
optimistic, neutral, pessimistic, or catastrophic.
3. Narrative
The descriptive elements of our imagined world, including the developments
leading us to this point in our future history.
Scenario sources: The Future Today Institute uses a wide array of quali-
tative and quantitative data to create our scenarios. Some of our typical
sources include patent filings, academic preprint servers, archival re-
search, policy briefings, conference papers, data sets, structured inter-
views with experts, conversations with kids, critical design, and specula-
tive fiction.

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News & Information
+ As current forms of digitally
+ The combined augmented and
mediated reality evolve and new
forms emerge, they are poised to virtual reality market is estimated
merge along a virtuality-reality to be valued in the hundreds of
spectrum. billions of dollars within the next
decade.
New Realities,
+ Diminished reality, or DR, is a
+ Synthetic media will become
form of augmented reality fo-
cused on suppressing existing an integral part of our future XR
elements of our physical envi- experiences.
ronment, rather than introducing
+ In the wrong hands, synthetic
Synthetic
new digital elements to it. DR
media can be a powerful and
represents a unique and exten-
dangerous tool in spreading mis-
sive range of AR applications.
information and disinformation.
+ The shift from hands-on to
+ As margins continue to shrink in
heads-up is upon us, marked
Media, News
news media, industry consolida-
by the gradual transition from
tion continues, at the expense of
smartphones to smart eyewear.
journalistic integrity.
+ With advancements in spatial in-
+ News outlets are encountering
ternet, and the impending spread
& Information
competition well beyond their in-
of 5G and smart eyewear, the
dustry as the subscription econ-
prospect of a metaverse—a per-
omy matures and an ever-grow-
sistent, shared, digitally mediated
ing list of companies vie for the
realm that layers into the physical
attention, time, and money of an
world—is coming into focus.
overstimulated audience.
Summary
+ Smart eyewear will rely in part
on advanced voice technology,
so expect investment and ad-
vancements in natural language
processing and generation, and
emotive recognition.

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News & Information
I do think that a significant portion of the population of

developed countries, and eventually all countries, will
have AR experiences every day, almost like eating three
meals a day. It will become that much a part of you.
— Apple CEO Tim Cook
© 2021 Future Today Institute

New Realities
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News & Information
Keeping Track of New Realities

As a constellation of technologies AR vs. VR MR vs. XR DR is AR
including smart eyewear, game Though both can be experienced via Mixed reality (MR) anchors virtual ele- (but not the other way around)
engines, natural language pro- smart glasses or head-mounted displays, ments to corresponding physical elements Diminished reality (DR) is not fully
cessing and generation, volumet- augmented reality (AR) and virtual reality in your environment—you can still phys- immersive, leaving you anchored in your
ric video, and haptics continues to (VR) are fundamentally different, and ically interact with objects and surfaces, physical environment but with certain
evolve, it is critical that we draw should be treated as such. AR makes but their appearance and reactivity may visuals, sounds, or other sensory elements
distinctions between the various digital alterations or additions to your be virtually altered or enhanced. MR suppressed. Thus, all DR is typically
digitally mediated realities that existing environment, but you generally experiences do not take place fully in considered a subset of AR—that does not
span the reality-virtuality spec- remain oriented to your physical sur- the physical nor the virtual world, but mean, however, that all AR is DR.
roundings. VR immerses you fully in a in a hybrid of the two. Extended reality
trum. With AR, VR, MR, XR, and
virtual environment, one that is either ar- (XR) is more of an umbrella term that
DR—and more R’s inevitably on
tificially generated or emulates real-world spans the reality-virtuality continuum,
the way—reviewing their defini-
surroundings other than your own. including AR, MR, and VR. XR some-
tions and differences is the first While they may share hardware, AR and times overlaps with varying definitions
step toward better understanding VR each have unique applications, with of the virtuality-reality spectrum, spatial
the future of the field. enterprise and consumer use cases for AR computing, or Web 3.0, and the so-called
eclipsing those for VR at present. metaverse.
Technology now blends the physical and

virtual worlds.

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Watch Closely Informs Strategy Act Now
News & Information
1ST YEAR ON THE LIST
Diminished Reality
KEY INSIGHT EXAMPLES DISRUPTIVE IMPACT EMERGING PLAYERS
DR has existed in some form for over a Diminished reality forces us to rethink • Amazon Sumerian
Diminished reality (DR) decade, with one of the most ubiquitous how digital mediation can shape our • Apple’s ARKit
is the field of AR that examples being noise-canceling head- surroundings by subtractive rather than
phones. But as the technology matures additive means, improving quality of • Google’s ARCore
focuses on virtually • Vuforia Engine
and is developed for the audiovisual ap- life for a broad range of users, but not
masking, reducing, or plications of smart eyewear, it will allow without risks.
suppressing features of users to target specific stimuli to suppress,
isolating a specific speaker’s words and
one’s environment. As appearance in a crowded room, or re-
Diminished reality has the power to remove ob- smart glasses prolifer- moving all advertising from view during
jects from view, seamlessly filling in backgrounds
ate and AR becomes a walk through the city center. But there
to mask the objects’ absence. are also therapeutic applications for those
commonplace over the with unique sensitivities, such as for
next decade, DR pres- those suffering from PTSD. One study
published by the Institute of Electrical and
ents an opportunity to Electronics Engineers outlines a series of
virtually shape our re- experimental workshops that used DR to
ality rather than simply assist individuals on the autism spectrum
“who are adversely affected by continu-
build on top of it. ously changing surroundings or distract-
ing visual incidents.”

News & Information
4TH YEAR ON THE LIST
Smart Eyewear and Head-Mounted Displays

The transition from hands-on to heads- Smart eyewear is expected to upend • Amazon’s Echo Frames
Smart eyewear and up mobile computing has begun, with industries and interfaces designed for the • Apple’s forthcoming smart eyewear
head-mounted displays everyday smart eyewear trickling into smartphone by offering a more versa- product
the consumer market. Amazon’s Echo tile hands-free alternative to the trusted
(HMDs) are already • Epson Moverio
Frames, which were quietly made avail- mobile device. HMDs, on the other hand,
on the market; as the able to the public at the end of 2020, have already begun to reshape enterprise • Facebook’s Oculus Quest 2
devices spread, gener- prove that smart glasses can have “dumb” solutions, from the field to the factory • Microsoft’s HoloLens 2
lenses—the tech in these frames is purely floor. Current smart eyewear, often
ating more real-world auditory (they have an on-board Alexa designed to resemble recognizable tradi- • Solos
data with which to up- voice assistant), using bone conduction tional eyeglasses with simple but useful • Snap Spectacles 3
date and fine-tune their technology rather than in-ear compo- connected features, is meant to seamlessly • Vue
nents. The audio-first approach is a clever blend into our everyday lives and facili-
hardware and operat- way to ease smart eyewear into the mar- tate daily activities. HMDs, which offer • Vuzix Blade
ing systems, they are ket, avoiding the privacy concerns sur- more robust functionality but are too
rounding video-enabled products like the cumbersome and restrictive for casual use
strongly positioned to conspicuous—and widely criticized—orig- on the go, are more commonly used in
replace smartphones inal Google Glass. It also gives manufac- controlled workplace environments, or
as the primary personal turers more time to engineer the complex for mostly stationary entertainment and
smart lens systems that will eventually gaming. As smart eyewear adds more ad-
device. support XR applications. Watch for sleek- vanced features, and HMDs become more
er but simpler smart eyewear devices and lightweight and comfortable, the two
The first generation of smart eyewear resembles
bulkier but more powerful HMDs like closely related technologies may begin to
traditional glasses, but future iterations will incor-
porate the technology into something akin to a Facebook’s Oculus Quest and Microsoft’s converge.
contact lens. HoloLens to inch closer to one another in
terms of capabilities and form factor.
News & Information
AR for the Enterprise

Microsoft’s HoloLens 2 head-mounted Companies of all sizes and industries • CAE

From factory floors to display was designed specifically with should be asking themselves where • GIGXR
virtual meeting rooms, business solutions in mind, incorporat- AR can be implemented to streamline
ing cloud and AI functionality, interop- and enhance functions and processes • Hevolus
AR has a broad range of • Kognitiv Spark
erability with industry partners, and a throughout the organization. AR devices
business applications, suite of developer tools. The device has are now being offered as part of a larger • Medivis
fueling accelerated in- already been adapted for the U.S. Army, ecosystem, compatible with third-party
• Nreal
with thermal imaging and night vision operating systems and developer kits that
vestment and growth in among its many advanced capabilities. allow smaller companies to plug in to • PTC
the field, while VR takes Smart eyewear and HMD maker Nreal existing systems, while bigger companies • Spatial
longer to mature. has announced an Android-compatible can design and customize their own.
“all in one” enterprise headset that looks • Trimble
more like a helmet than a pair of glasses,
with on-board edge computing capabil-
ities. The uses of these business-focused
headsets are wide-ranging, encompass-
ing everything from monitoring supply
Microsoft’s HoloLens 2 was designed specifically
chains and complex equipment via digital
with business solutions in mind.
twins, to hosting remote meetings in 3D,
to providing guided AR tutorials as part
JOIN GROUP AR/VR HERE: of workplace training.
Extended Reality+Immersive eXperiences

| XR, AR, VR, MR | VIETNAM

News & Information
Holograms
In December 2020, Netflix launched an The accurate digital reproduction of faces, • Blank XR
Holograms are light AR hologram tool ahead of releasing the bodies, and other complex structures in
• Netflix
field recordings that, George Clooney movie “The Midnight dynamic 3D form is critical to the evolu-
Sky.” It let people record and upload a tion of augmented and virtual reality. As • Portl
when reproduced, can smart eyewear edges out the smartphone • Kaleida
short video message and see it trans-
appear as static or formed into AR holograms. Blank XR is
as our primary personal device, holo-
• Eyellusion
grams, variously combined with deepfake
dynamic three-dimen- developing a concert platform that would technology and synthetic media, may • Base Hologram Productions
allow fans to engage with musicians’ soon inhabit our everyday environments.
Prominent attorney Robert Kardashian (left), who
sional visuals. The term holograms via a mixed-reality applica- • Hologram USA
They’ll represent a range of artificially
passed away in 2003, was re-created in holo-
graphic form (right) by production house Kaleida
is also more generally tion. Los Angeles startup Portl launched generated characters, celebrity stand-ins, • EchoPixel
in 2020 as a birthday gift for his daughter Kim. applied to any image phone booth-sized boxes that can project brand spokespeople, historical figures,
a real-time, full-size holographic likeness and lost loved ones. In the medical field, • OpenSight
Image Credit: GETTY IMAGES/@KIMKARDASHIAN
that is rendered to ap- of a person or character. Holograms have holographic mapping can provide doc- • Crypton Future Media
pear in 3D. been key to successful concert tours fea- tors with a 360-degree view of a patient’s
turing bygone stars like Roy Orbison and internal organs, vessels, bones, and tissue,
Frank Zappa, and will soon allow produc- which can assist with diagnostics and
surgeries, with multiple apps already
tion companies to draw popular synthetic
approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Ad-
media influencers like Lil Miquela and
ministration. As it evolves, this technol-
artists like Japanese act Hatsune Miku ogy could be used in remote workplace
out of our screens and into our spatial training and collaboration. Expect to hear
environment. more about holograms as resolution, vol-
umetrics, and depth of field improve, and
as 5G fuels the level of high-bandwidth
instantaneous data transfer needed for
lifelike holographic streaming.
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News & Information
Eco-Sight
Near-future optimistic scenario

There’s more to reality than what meets the human eye.
As we extend technology past the limits of our senses, we
create filters that allow us to see through the eyes of other
species. Earth looks like a different planet. To the man-
tis shrimp, the ocean is an aurora borealis of previously
unimagined colors. Birds look brighter and more opu-
lent when we finally see them through their own eyes.
Mushrooms littered across the forest floor are revealed
as the various fruiting bodies of one unified underground
organism. These eco-sense experiences make their way
into school curricula, corporate retreats, therapeutic pro-
grams, environmental policymaking, and the art world.
The more time we spend using the filters to augment
our senses, the more empathy we develop for the natural
world, seeing nature as it sees itself. These experiences
make us more life-centric, motivating us to nurture and
protect our planet.

News & Information
Spatial Displays
Spatial displays offer the magic of vir- For now, this technology is aimed at de- • Sony
Holographic displays tual reality without having to strap on signers, architects, and marketers. But as • Intel
allow content creators a head-mounted display. Instead, a flat spatial displays improve and mature, they
screen projects objects in what looks will change how we watch movies, test • Unity
to see their digital • Unreal Engine
like a hyper-realistic, three-dimensional drive vehicles, and attend board meetings.
designs in physical diorama. Spatial displays use high-speed Doctors will show their patients what’s
space. face and eye-tracking cameras to always going on inside their bodies, and history
detect the position of the viewer’s eyes in teachers will take students on tours of
real time. A video generation algorithm ancient ruins.
responds to the viewer’s eyes, while tiny
lenses deliver stereoscopic images to
each eye. Sony’s Spatial Reality Display
debuted last fall with a dedicated software
development kit supporting Unity and
Unreal Engine 4.
Sony’s Spatial Reality Display follows eye move-
ment down to the millisecond.

News & Information
New Realities Trends
360° Video their perspective and view the full scope For example, if you’re watching an action ises to create a new paradigm for AR and
of their surroundings from a fixed point, film on your phone and you turn your VR that is more inclusive and immediate-
360-degree video is created with a special
volumetric video allows viewers to pivot back to it, an explosion in the film would ly available.
camera rig designed to capture omni-
directional footage. Once the video is around their subject viewing it with then be heard from behind you, rather
rendered, viewers can rotate their point depth, and from all angles. Microsoft’s than before you. Similarly, when you The Metaverse
of view using a mouse, touch-screen, or Mixed Reality Capture Studios are an in- move the phone but keep your head still,
ternational network of certified facilities the auditory perspective shifts with the A term originally coined by Neal Ste-
motion-control gesture to explore the phenson in his iconic 1992 sci-fi novel
recorded scene. The format offers a more for capturing volumetric video intended positioning of the device. This technology
for MR applications. Once smart eye- will be central to creating lifelike sensory “Snow Crash,” the metaverse refers to an
immersive and active viewing experi- all-encompassing shared virtual realm.
ence for entertainment, documentary, wear is the norm, we will come to expect experiences in XR.
content to be experienced volumetrically, While definitions vary, and some have
and news than traditional video, but one strayed from the novel’s depiction of the
that can still be viewed through standard rather than the flat perspective offered by WebAR/WebVR
smartphone, tablet, and desktop screens. concept, today the metaverse is often de-
mediums like laptop and mobile device The majority of AR and VR experiences scribed as persistent—meaning its collec-
screens. It is a relatively simple and low- available today require users to download tive network of 3D virtual spaces cannot
cost alternative to the total immersion of Spatial Audio an app to their device, but WebAR and be turned on or off, but exists continu-
more advanced forms of virtual reality. Just like volumetric video gives perspec- WebVR are part of a burgeoning field ously—and shared—meaning various us-
tive and depth to visual content, spatial in which AR and VR experiences are ac- ers can access it freely and interact within
Volumetric Video audio is broadcast in such a way that the cessible directly through a browser. This it. By most definitions, the metaverse
listener interprets the sounds as occupy- successfully sidesteps the data storage encompasses all AR, virtual realms, and
A pivotal technology for developing
ing various spaces in their environment. limits and device compatibility issues that the internet. While the concept can be
XR experiences, volumetric video is the
The latest editions of Apple’s AirPods might hinder an app-based experience, difficult to grasp at the moment, it is like-
capture of a space, figure, or event in 3D.
Australia-based Imagine Room operates the feature spatial audio technology—when effectively helping the AR or VR content ly to come into clearer focus as AR and
The resulting video can then be viewed
country’s first Mixed Reality Capture Studio. it is activated, sounds are perceived in re- reach a broader audience more efficiently. VR platforms proliferate, and virtuality
either on a screen or XR device. While
lation to the listener’s positioning as well The field is still in its infancy, but prom- becomes a regular, if not constant, part of
360-degree video allows viewers to rotate
as the positioning of the source device. our everyday lives.

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Expert Insight
The Future of Live new type of hybrid entertainment

will combine the best of in-person
Entertainment live events, broadcast, interactive
digital media, and real-time game
environments.
Corey Johnson
Technology in events and
CEO/Partner, live entertainment
Production Club For the past decade, digital tech-
nologies have had a growing influ-
ence on the live music and enter-
Live music and entertainment will tainment industries. Technologies
never be the same. Where less such as XR (extended reality), AR
than two years ago live-streaming (augmented reality), and VR (virtual
and virtual events were the odd reality) have been developed and
stepchild of the live events indus- touted as revolutionary. Low-cost,
try, this segment not only became low-power LEDs have transformed
relevant but entirely supplanted lighting technology and the avail-
the traditional live event and en- ability of higher-quality, higher-res-
tertainment industries in 2020. The olution displays have cemented the
pandemic triggered a rapid shift of role of video and visuals as an es-
focus, the creation of new business sential part of the live experience.
paradigms, and a series of innova- Further, real-time game engines
tions that will revolutionize events such as Unreal and Unity have
and create an entirely new type of gone from the realm of experimen-
live experience in the future. This tation and innovation into founda-

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News & Information
tional building blocks and tools for gather and had entirely replaced So what will events of the future
creating the live environment. live concerts, conferences, and en- look like? No one knows exactly,
tertainment worldwide. Twitch, for but the virtual event genie is not
So what will events of However, until recently the appli-
example, was regarded as a fringe going back in the bottle. What was
the future look like? No cations of these new technologies
streaming platform where gamers once an after-thought is now the
has been primarily in support of
one knows exactly, but the in-person, physical live event
could gather and watch each other focus of an entire industry. This
play. Discord was the same, exist- year, 2021, will be full of innovation.
the virtual event genie experience. Technology has been
ing as a communication tool for It will include new companies and
used to create video elements, add
is not going back in the spectacle and visual intrigue, or
small communities. Even the top platforms that have not previously
enterprise players such as Zoom existed, next-generation XR perfor-
bottle. more deeply embed brands and
or Skype were primarily viewed mances and awards shows such
advertisers into the event. All of this
as business tools, certainly not as as MTV’s VMA Awards, and new
changed in 2020. COVID-19 not
technology platforms replacing initiatives from incumbents, such as
only made in-person live events
any and all group gathering and Sony, which is building an in-house
challenging, but impossible to be
socialization at global scale. studio dedicated solely to creating
done safely and at any viable eco-
these immersive at-home experi-
nomic scale. As such, live streaming Now in 2021, the industry still finds
ences. With Travis Scott’s Fortnite
and virtual event platforms went itself contending with significant
performance live-streamed to
from the periphery to the center of uncertainty. Festivals such as
more than 12 million simultaneous
the action. Coachella have been canceled
users and an entire generation of
for the second year in a row, in-
At the start of 2020, live-streaming youth spending their social time in
dustry giant Live Nation’s revenue
and virtual event platforms were Roblox—which is valued at $30 bil-
dropped 95%, and the timeline and
more-or-less irrelevant as far as lion with 150 million monthly active
comeback of concerts is unknown
the public was concerned, but by users—the forthcoming shifts in the
and will be dictated by the success
mid-year they were the only way to industry look to be tectonic in scale.
(or failure) of vaccines.

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News & Information
Looking forward the metaverse as depicted in sci- **

At Production Club, we believe that ence fiction like “Snow Crash” and
“Ready Player One,” it is clear that Corey Johnson leads Production
It is clear that the future is not about whether
technology’s impact on live events Club’s overall direction and focus,
events will be physical or virtual. It
technology’s impact is highly likely that the innovation and entertainment is still in a na- working across the creative and
production spectra.
on live events and will occur simultaneously in both scent phase. There is much more to
physical and virtual mediums. come.
entertainment is still in
Covid has reinforced and solidified
a nascent phase. There We are calling these hybrids “Col-
the fact that humans have a fun-
lective Experiences.” This new type
is much more to come. of event will happen all at once in damental and irreplaceable desire
physical venues, on web-based to gather, communicate, socialize,
interactive live-streams, and on and be entertained in groups large
virtual avatar-based game plat- and small. In the coming years,
forms. These events will not be technology must be developed to
constrained by physical location or support, enhance, and accelerate
time in the same way that events collective experiences by offering
were prior to 2020. Technology will more quality, diversity, and ac-
continue to accelerate and em- cessible live entertainment for all.
power this transformation with a Ultimately it’s not about the tech-
far greater emphasis on the virtual nology itself but how it is utilized to
medium, as audiences wake up bring us together that matters.
to its possibilities, efficiency, and
offerings. Further, as gaming and
tech companies explore ideas like

Synthetic Media
& Content
News & Information
2ND YEAR ON THE LIST
Synthetic Media and Content

Synthetic media is created using artificial Watch for synthetic media to appear • Samsung Next
Synthetic media con- intelligence. Algorithms use an initial set more frequently in 2021, representing • Loudly
sists of algorithmically of data to learn—people, voices, pho- new opportunities and risks for busi-
tos, objects, motions, videos, text, and nesses, and reshaping the entertainment, • Endel
generated digital con- other types of media. The end result is • Replica Studios
service, and communications landscape.
tent, including audio, realistic-looking and realistic-sounding
• Lovo
artificial digital content. Voice clones,
video, deepfakes, virtual voice skins, unique gestures, photos, • Modulate
characters and environ- and interactive bots are all part of the
ecosystem. Synthetic media can be used • Rephrase.ai
ments, and more. The for practical reasons, such as generating • Synthesia
technology will become characters in animated movies or act-
ing as a stand-in for live action movies. • Alethea.ai
an integral aspect of Synthetic media can automate dubbing in • Carv3d
future XR experiences. foreign languages on video chats and fill
in the blanks when video call frames are • Animatico
dropped because of low bandwidth issues. • Narrativa
Imagine an entirely new genre of soap
• DeepNatural
opera, where AI systems learn from your
digital behavior, biometrics, and personal • Baidu Research
data, and use details from your personal
life for the storylines of synthetic charac-
ters. In an ultimate expression of a “reality
Chinese virtual influencer Ling debuted in May 2020.
show,” synthetic characters would play to
an audience of exactly one: you.

News & Information
Synthetic Media Technologies
Speech Synthesis ble Ai, and DeepZen synthesize voices for YouTube videos and TV shows such as what sound is generated when a wooden
a host of purposes. For example, you can “The Office” and “Desperate Housewives,” drumstick taps a couch, a pile of leaves,
Also known as “synthetic speech” or “text-
fake a conversation between yourself and a computer system can now predict or a glass windowpane. The focus of this
to-speech technology,” speech synthesis
your favorite celebrity, provided there are whether two people are likely to hug, research is to help systems understand
mimics real human voices and deploys
enough publicly available audio files of kiss, shake hands, or slap a high five. This how objects interact with each other in
them to various interfaces. With enough
that celebrity to build a dataset. Soon, the research will someday enable robots to the physical realm.
data and training, a speech synthesis
system can learn the spectral frequency technology will be able to match and rap- more easily navigate human environ-
of anyone’s voice and produce someone’s idly deploy synthetic voices personalized ments—and to interact with humans by Mapped Synthetic Environments
digital voiceprint. One company, Syn- for every consumer. If you loved “Daria” taking cues from our body language. It
as a kid, you might hear Daria Morgen- could also be used in retail environments, Companies are now mapping the real
thesia, uses this technology to dub people world to generate synthetic digital twins.
through automated facial reanimation. dorffer’s voice (or Jane Lane’s) during a while we’re operating machinery or while
car commercial, while your spouse might we’re in classrooms learning. Amazon has been studying Snohomish
This will be especially useful for movies County in Washington, building realistic
with wide, international releases. Actors’ instead hear Phil and Lil’s mom from
“Rugrats.” We should remember that simulations of the region’s roads, build-
facial expressions and mouths can be Generative Algorithms for Voice, ings, and traffic. Its maps are reported
reformatted to ensure local languages are in this era of misinformation, synthetic
Sound, and Video to be accurate down to the centimeter,
synchronized correctly. voices might also be used to trick unwit-
ting consumers. A team at University of California, Berke- precisely tracking subtle gradients in
ley, created software that can transfer the pavement and noting unique markings
Modulating Custom Voices movements of one person in a video to on sidewalks. Amazon fused maps and
Deep Behaviors and Predictive 3D data to build synthetic versions of
Generative algorithms are creating syn- someone in another video automatically
Machine Vision using a generative adversarial network. the county to test delivery drones. These
thetic voices that sound just like the orig-
Researchers at MIT’s Computer Science For some time, we’ve been training kinds of virtual environments will be
inal, and those voices can be modulated
and Artificial Intelligence Laboratory computers to watch videos and predict necessary as the company moves drones
to the exact pitch and tone desired. The
(CSAIL) trained computers to not only corresponding sounds in our physical from research labs into the mainstream.
The 2021 Super Bowl aired a commercial featur- AI learns over time to recognize not only
ing a synthesized Vince Lombardi. recognize what’s in a video but to predict world. For example, researchers at MIT’s Amazon tested its Scout delivery robot
intonation, but also emotional cadences.
what humans will do next. Trained on CSAIL experimented to learn wheth- in the real world, having trained it in the
Replica Studios, Lovo, Voicemod, Resem-
er a computer could accurately predict synthetic environment.

News & Information
Synthetic Media and Society
Live Portraits She is a model for brands like Prada and of the press.) While Bermuda and Blawko encourage team members or how to fire
Calvin Klein, a musician with popu- aren’t programmable yet, China’s AI news someone with empathy and compassion.
In a new application of synthetic me-
lar tracks on Spotify, and a paid brand anchors are. China’s state news agency Canadian startup TwentyBN built a syn-
dia, Israeli startup D-ID used its face
ambassador for enormous, global compa- Xinhua employs AI news anchors Xin thetic sales associate to cheerfully interact
recognition technology to generate live
nies like Samsung. And she has friends: Xiaomeng, Qui Hao, and Xin Xiaohao, with customers—and convince them to
portraits from old photos. Members of
Bermuda, a rule-breaking bad girl model/ who appear in videos and also write spend more money.
MyHeritage, a genealogy platform, could
upload old family photos or animate those influencer and Blawko, a Los Angeles– stories for the agency.
already in the platform’s database. The based guy who likes fast cars and Absolut Synthetic Voice Fraud
result: live portraits, reminiscent of “Har- vodka, and is never without his trade- Simulating Human Experiences
mark face scarf covering his nose and Synthesized media has a known problem
ry Potter.” The technology maps a digital What if you could interact with a simulat- area: It can be used by malicious actors
picture to an AI system that renders mouth. In many ways, these stars are the
antidote to teen stars like Lindsay Lohan ed person to learn from them or practice to mislead people, to trick voice authen-
smiling, blinking, and head movements in management techniques? Would you in- tication systems, and to create forged
a short video. and Shia LeBeouf who, for one reason or
another, stray from their carefully crafted vite a synth to a dinner party? Samsung’s audio recordings. Voice fraud costs U.S.
public images and cause headaches for Technology and Advanced Research Labs businesses with call centers $14 billion
Synth-pop Makes a Comeback their agents, managers, and the brands or (STAR Labs) thinks the answer is yes. It last year alone, according to a study by
projects they represent. Synthetic stars developed Neon, “a computationally cre- call center software maker Pindrop.
Synthetic media will give rise to an
don’t sleep. They don’t eat. They never ated virtual being that looks and behaves Google has been working on a synthetic
entirely new kind of celebrity in the 21st
get tired, even if they’re pushed 24 hours like a real human, with the ability to show speech dataset as part of the ASVspoof
century: synthetic pop stars. It also affords
a day. They don’t drink alcohol or use emotions and intelligence.” Neons aren’t Challenge, which is an open-source,
a host of opportunities to make and save
drugs, would never say anything off-mes- intended as a stand-in for the internet. global initiative designed to help develop
money. Already there are a number of
sage, and their mug shots would never go They were built to hang out with you. countermeasures to fight spoofed speech.
synthetic pop stars with very large fan
viral. (Unless it was planned, of course. U.S.-based startup Talespin built synths Researchers hope that the challenge
Frank is an artificial person from Samsung. bases. Lil Miquela is a sort of Beyonce of
Over the summer, Bermuda posted her in virtual reality to teach people “soft” will lead to more secure synthetic voice
synthetic stars, with 3 million followers
own mugshot on Instagram to “get ahead” management skills, including how to content.
on Instagram as of the start of this year.

News & Information
Synthetic Media and Society
Synthetic Sex Tapes

situations and must decide whether to “Under Pressure” (you know the base ing deepfakes morphed into a makeshift on our connected TVs, in our inboxes,
Natalie Portman, Emma Watson, Taylor shoot synthetic civilians. Where do we line hook: da-da-da---da-da-da-dum) but marketplace. Users were volunteering to and throughout social media. Synthetic
Swift, and Daisy Ridley—smart, talented draw the lines between disclosure and didn’t get permission first. He tried to create deepfake videos of celebrities, co- media can be particularly inflammatory
artists—began “appearing” in adult videos pure fantasy? Parody for laughs and get around copyright law saying that he workers, family members, neighbors, and in the political realm, where both sides of
in late 2018. Convincing short clips were deepfakes for harm? What happens when added a beat between notes (Ice’s version: enemies in exchange for crypto-currency. a polarized public are motivated by social
made using deepfake techniques and soon synthetic content seems so real that the da-da-da...da-da-da-dum, DA---da-da-da- In the near future, marketplaces to com- media algorithms to share and engage
went viral on Reddit. Not too long after, psychological implications are intense --da-da-da-dum) and made it a distinctly mission, buy, and sell synthetic media, as with sensationalized content without nec-
another Reddit user published a mobile and profound? What if someone gener- different song. The case settled out of well as their attributes, will be visible on essarily verifying its authenticity.
application allowing anyone to make ates synthetic environments that mirror court, but it shined a light on how U.S. the dark social web.
their own porn deepfakes. This poses real-world situations and real people? copyright laws were created to protect
a particular problem for public figures, No existing laws or regulations govern the financial—not creative—interests of
because right now there isn’t an easy Truth Decay in an Era
synthetic content, although some people artists. What if someone created a slightly of Synthetic Media
way for the average person to tell what’s suggest adapting current laws, such as altered copy of you for promotional com-
real and what’s fake. Photos and videos those covering libel, defamation, identity mercials? For example, if your likeness In 2021, we expect to see synthetic media
can spread through social networks and fraud, or impersonating a government was edited to include facial hair and a technologies further commercialized and
online without much protection for those official. pair of glasses you don’t have in real life, made widely available. But without the
victimized. In the absence of digital tools and then used without your permission— infrastructure in place to help consumers
to spot fakes, we’re left relying on critical would those details eliminate the legal distinguish between synths and humans,
thinking and common sense. Using Synthetic Media to Get the likelihood of misinformation cam-
Around Copyright Laws requirement for consent?
paigns remains high. Synthetic media
Synthetic Property Rights and In many countries it is illegal to plagiarize could be weaponized by governments,
someone’s original content. You might Synthetic Media Marketplaces activist groups, and individuals, and could
Legal Protections
remember the 1989 pop-rap crossover hit We already got a taste of what our future be treated the same as all other internet
The video game “Call of Duty: Mod- “Ice Ice Baby” by Vanilla Ice. He sampled synth media marketplaces will look like. content, showing up in search results,
ern Warfare” was designed with brutal David Bowie and Queen’s collaboration In 2018. a subreddit dedicated to publish- on our smart speakers as audio content,
realism. Players enter lifelike combat

News &
Information
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
Expert Insight
How the News more seamlessly into daily life. It

also means we have to solve prob-
Industry Must lems for users and help them verify
the accuracy of the information
Evolve to Fit into they consume.
Daily Life News + e-commerce

More people are on their devices—
like computers and smartphones—
Ebony Reed
and not just for information con-
New Audiences Chief, sumption, work, and entertainment.
Wall Street Journal A growing number of people—
more than 200 million in the United
States—are shopping and living
online. We need to integrate news
Audiences have developed new
into the experiences and activities
behaviors and habits as a result
that people are already doing. We
of the global pandemic. At the
should consider doing this on our
same time, we are on the cusp
owned and operated platforms.
of a revolutionary opportunity to
This will also involve reassessing
transform news experiences with
the actions we allow audiences to
faster internet speeds through the
take on news platforms.
eventual mass adoption of 5G,
which is still in its early days. These Some innovators and academics,
changes—behavioral, societal, and including me, had proposed that
technical—mean we are better smart homes offered new plat-
positioned to create news that fits

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
News & Information
forms for journalism. But we’ve trace the provenance of news and is a unique opportunity to bring ate questions and help them solve
found the masses still consume information. Some news compa- audiences into actual news events. challenges they are facing. We can
digital news mainly on computers nies define words and link to previ- How would it have felt to experi- already see what audiences want
and smartphones. While offering ous coverage to offer more trans- ence, in almost real time, all of the to know based on what they search
products for purchase on news parency, but not enough initiatives marches for equality and social for online and by asking them to
sites isn’t a new concept, we now show audiences what to question, justice across the world during tell us. As we think about growing
have a larger base of people who, how to verify information, or how to the summer of 2020? How will the the community around journalism,
as a result of the pandemic, may be track story developments on their masses react when they can regu- how we help people should remain
open to buying or even expecting own. Is it worthwhile to experiment larly experience news, not just read, a core focus. This is also a unique
it. We know that allowing people to with blockchain technology or use listen, or view it? And how will that strength that positions news orga-
take actions on our platforms can traditional docs to help audiences impact our real-time conversations, nizations to have a lasting impact
create a stickier experience and track news stories? Will citizens opinions and lived experiences with audiences. After all, don’t
help reduce audience churn, and who can track changes in news when we can all experience—not you recall the last time someone
we must find ways to continue to begin to trust journalists more? We just watch—certain events in near helped you?
leverage this trend. need to focus on how to empower real time together?
audiences as we create news liter- **
Empowering audiences acy projects. Service journalism
Ebony Reed is New Audiences
News literacy initiatives need to Offering audiences services and
More immersive experiences Chief at the Wall Street Journal,
offer more two-way interaction utility is another way we can con-
a member of the strategy team
with audiences and empower As 5G gains adoption and creates nect with and help them. People
and leading efforts to expand the
them to determine if information is faster and more stable connec- want to know how to write a stand-
Journal’s reach. Prior to joining the
trustworthy, accurate,and from a tions (even if it takes a decade out cover letter, write a resume,
reliable source. This is an essential to fully take hold because users and grow their money. Others may Journal, she was director of inno-
public service. Clear plans and need to upgrade devices), we are want to know how to lose pandem- vation at the Donald W. Reynolds
strategies are needed to show au- already asking how to build more ic pounds. We need to create con- Journalism Institute and an associ-
diences how to use technology to immersive news experiences. This tent answering audiences’ immediate professor at the Missouri School
of Journalism.
News & Information
Cancel Culture and Accountability Politics

“Canceling” can come in many forms: Every day we create a robust, lasting • Electronic Frontier Foundation
Powerful people fre- calling out, deplatforming, censoring, record of our lives thanks to the prolif- • Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.)
quently dismiss justified boycotting. It can happen to celebrities, eration of connected devices and cheap
but private figures can get caught up, data storage. As social norms evolve, • Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.)
protest and credible • Facebook
too. New York resident Amy Cooper, those records will memorialize choices,
accusations as “can- for example, faced criminal charges after messages, and actions that don’t neces- • YouTube
cel culture” to evade being filmed calling 911 to falsely accuse sarily sync with our future selves, or our
• Twitter
and harass a Black man, and she was also future culture, providing ample fodder
consequences for their fired from her investment firm after for character assissination. As a society,
actions. On the other public outcry and viral bad press. Online the question is whether we will let those
hand, certain “cancella- vigilantism is sometimes the only way to who transgress learn from their mistakes:
hold people accountable in a world that What can someone do to repent when
tion” campaigns, waged doesn’t always achieve justice through they do harm? What past acts are irre-
via social platforms but traditional means, but not every call for deemable? And who gets to decide when
sanctions is equal in scope or stakes. atonement is complete? The person or
with real-world reper- YouTube personalities have attempted to community who was violated? The trans-
cussions, are misguided cancel each other over personal slights. gressor? Their allies online?
or vindictive attempts to Former President Barack Obama is one
of many voices pushing back against the
discredit or exploit those culture of calling people out online. “The
in the spotlight. world is messy; there are ambiguities,” he
Social media has created supercharged cycles of said last year. “People who do really good
outrage, boycott, and backlash.
stuff have flaws.”

News & Information
Sensory Journalism
The OrCam MyEye, a small camera that Storytelling that integrates with a user’s • OrCam
Wearable devices will clips onto any pair of glasses, is a simple perception could foster empathy and un- • Facebook Project Aria
change everything wearable device that recognizes what it lock new ways to understand the world—
“sees” and describes it to the wearer. It’s but it could also be manipulated to create
we know about user
ideal for helping visually impaired people sensory clickbait. Journalists will need
interaction. Glasses, interact with the world around them, to find new ways to deliver the news, but
headphones, and other such as hearing a menu read aloud. But they must hold tech companies account-
OrCam’s aspirations are much bigger: able as this technology develops. There
wearables will integrate Patent filings describe methods for is essential reporting to be done on how
directly with a user’s “lifelogging”—storing details about what wearable devices will be compatible with
sense of sight, hearing, an individual has done, where they’ve different types of bodies. Will sensory
been, and who they’ve met for recall integration work equally well for people
and touch. Instead of later. Facebook’s Project Aria is building of all genders? People of color? People
The OrCam MyEye has patents that describe
“lifelogging”—storing details about what indi- developing media for a wearable devices and testing them in the with disabilities?
viduals have done, where they’ve been, and who real world with hopes of defining what
they’ve met for recall later. particular screen size, is useful, meaningful, and relevant when
storytellers are going a device integrates with a user’s senses.
to need to optimize for This is a seismic shift for storytellers:
Experiences won’t be constrained by the
individual users’ senses. size of a screen or the shape of a device,
but will be bespoke to each user.

News & Information
Geography Reshapes the Virtual World

The California Consumer Privacy Act CCPA and the other state laws on the • European Union
In the internet’s first two (CCPA) gives Californians the power to horizon will impact ad targeting, but • U.S. Federal Communications
decades, information stop businesses from selling their person- watch for major changes in any business Commission
al information and a GDPR-style right that depends on knowing its consumers,
crossed borders freely.
to have information deleted. Businesses like subscription marketing. Without
Now local, state, and that serve Californians—even if they’re coordinated effort, geographic differences
national governments not based in the state—are required to in rights and expectations will continue to
be compliant as of January. Washington proliferate. This could change the eco-
are creating a complex passed a law strengthening the definition nomics and operating model for compa-
patchwork of regulation of personally identifiable information nies that serve customers across interna-
that assigns internet in the state and shortening the window tional borders (or even across state lines
companies have to notify consumers and in the U.S.). Established tech platforms
users (and their data) the state attorney general after a data and multinational organizations will
different rights in differ- breach. In New York, legislators passed have the scale to account for that kind of
the Stop Hacks and Improve Electronic regulatory complexity, but new entrants
ent places. Data Security Act to increase the types may find it hard to serve—and monetize—
of personal information covered by the audiences in multiple jurisdictions.
state’s data breach reporting law. New
laws will give real meaning to the physical
geography of where a user accesses the
internet, and of where the companies
New York legislators passed laws now governing involved are located.
how content can be published and shared in the
state.

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Reality Prescriptions
Near-future pessimistic scenario

The more time we spend in virtual worlds, the more we
lose touch with reality. It’s not our fault. These virtual
worlds are designed to keep us plugged in with strate-
gically timed dopamine hits. Doctors and mental health
experts raise the alarm as they witness the side effects of
digital addictions and overdose symptoms. Too many
people are losing sleep, straining their bodies, and ne-
glecting loved ones. To combat the rising digital addiction
epidemic, health care practitioners begin to prescribe dos-
es of reality. Once recorded in your digital health records,
these reality prescriptions commandeer your devices.
Restricted usage, diminished potency, and even full-on
lockouts limit or prevent your time online. But addictions
are hard to overcome, and some patients resort to contra-
band and DIY devices to get their fix. Reality rehab might
be the only solution, but the digital dope keeps beckoning
addicts away.

News & Information
The End of Attention Metrics

Researchers estimate that more than half As mainstream browsers increasingly • Google Analytics
The attention economy, of web traffic is fake. Fraudulent traffic is block third-party tracking cookies by • Chartbeat
which spawned listicles generated by bots that can fake clicks and default, it will be harder to connect in-
by click farms in which a single user can dividuals to their actions across the web. • Facebook
and tweet roundups, • Interactive Advertising Bureau
interact across scores of devices simulta- Digital marketers and advertisers must
isn’t as easily measured neously. Nevertheless, vast portions of the find new ways to quantify the impact
as previously thought. digital economy are built around quanti- of their work—and to ensure that their
fying how users consume media online. partners trust their metrics.
Measuring how con-
Beyond different ways of counting,
sumers allocate their there’s also outright fraud online.
attention depends on Schemes to manipulate metrics follow the
money: MadHive, a digital TV advertis-
how you count—and ing company, estimates that 20% of video
who is counting. ad requests are fake. This is a serious
problem for both publishers that rely on
ad revenue and for advertisers that need
to satisfy client metrics.
Brand safety and ad fraud protection will be top

advertiser priorities in 2021.

News & Information
Digital Frailty
Digital frailty is evolving from a flaw Sometimes new technology obviates the • Internet Archive
Digital frailty is when into a feature: This trend emerged as old before anyone has had a chance to
convert files or develop archives. The • Amazon Web Services
digital assets are imper- media was erased from the web because
Internet Archive and others try to create
old sites were no longer maintained. It’s • Microsoft Azure
manent or easily com- snapshots in time, but the services can
• Google Cloud
still problematic when information with struggle with dynamic sites that heavily
promised by technical archival value is lost, but more systems rely on JavaScript. While there’s archival
glitches. are being designed to encode imperma- value to the files we post online, users are
nence as users adapt ephemeral tools like increasingly choosing ephemeral formats
Instagram stories or messages that expire to share via Instagram Stories and Snap.
within a set time frame. There’s also risk How will future societies learn from the
past if they cannot study the first draft
when organizations turn to external tools
of our present history? Do we have an
or services to manage their prominent obligation to preserve the digital con-
programming. Storify was a popular tool versations shaping society? Should we
for aggregating social media posts around be working harder to ensure that digital
a major news event. A team of journalists archives aren’t lost?
working for Reported.ly, a now defunct As we develop expectations for what
experiment run by First Look Media, should be archived, we must consider
won a 2015 Online Journalism Award for the risks of creating an indelible record:
reporting on the shooting at Charlie Heb- What should happen to posts shared by
do magazine in real time. All that report- minors to social networks or student
ing lived on Storify but was lost when the assignments posted to a school’s digital
portal? Do young people have the right
Patrick Soon-Shiong bought the Los Angeles Times platform shut down in 2018.
in 2018. The Wall Street Journal reported that to a blank slate when they reach adult-
Soon-Shiong was trying to sell the company in hood, or should they be held accountable
February 2021. for ideas they try on for size on the way
to maturity?
News & Information
Sensitive Content Warnings

Several companies, including Disney Signposting sensitive content, or remov- • American Association of University
Sensitive content warn- and Dr. Seuss Enterprises, are assessing ing it completely, will continue this year, Professors
ings now appear regu- archival content for representations of sparking controversy and debate about • Modern Language Association
culture, religion, gender, and ethnicity. cancel culture. A cultural shift is under-
larly, as a way signaling • National Coalition Against Censorship
As of February 2021, several Dr. Seuss way in the U.S. that will result in perma-
that the information books, which depict racist imagery will nent changes.
about to be conveyed no longer be published. A 2019 survey of
Seuss’ works found that just 2% of human
may upset or aggravate characters were people of color, they nev-
certain readers, viewer had dialogue, and they were likened to
ers, or listeners. servants or animals. Dr. Seuss Enterprises
said that the books—published in the
1930s to the late 1970s—“portray people
in ways that are hurtful and wrong.” On
the Disney+ streaming service, several
episodes of “The Muppet Show” now
include warnings that episodes contain
Some episodes of “The Muppet Show” now come outdated cultural depictions. Similar dis-
with sensitive content warnings. claimers precede streams of “Lady and the
Tramp,” “The Jungle Book,” “The Aris-
tocats,” “Dumbo,” “Peter Pan,” and “Swiss
Family Robinson.”

News & Information
New Search Interfaces

The line between old-fashioned web- It will be a while before we have a uni- • Trint
Most people still find pages and new forms of content—from versal search agent that crawls through • SpokenLayer
the majority of infor- Instagram chats to Alexa conversations conversations, games, and mixed reality
to mixed reality characters—is blurring. content for the information we seek. • Audioburst
mation they consume • Listen Notes
Companies like Trint help publishers Until then, voice search optimization
through search, and transcribe audio to make it more search- (VSO) will emerge as a way of surfacing • Snap
indexing new content able by traditional crawlers, while other relevant content on spoken interfaces.
startups like Audioburst are trying to use Spatial computing is in its infancy today,
types for wearable and technology to actually “listen” to data pre- but soon consumers might expect to
spoken interfaces is viously locked into a waveform and make be served only stories relevant to what
proving challenging. these units of audio more navigable. Au- they are viewing through smart glasses.
dioburst’s technology ingests and analyzes Searches based on conversation or what
audio and uses natural language process- a user is looking at will be highly contex-
ing to understand its contents, contextu- tual, requiring sophisticated algorithms
alize it, and make it all searchable. to anticipate the intent of a query and the
relevancy of results.
Audioburst wants to be the Google of radio.

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Expert Insight
New Horizons in technology, such a proprietary

trend detection tool for identifying
Book Publishing various signals on the internet that
we use to spot talent and to inform
demand-driven book creation.
Maja Thomas Our company, Hachette, has widely
gained expertise by bringing start-
Chief Innovation Officer,
ups in house and learning from
Hachette Livre
them. We’ve welcomed entrepre-
neurs specializing in digital-first
publishing, the creation of board
My team is always asking how the games and mobile games, brain
Hachette Group, an international training applications, and educa-
publisher, can become the most tional games.
innovative provider of reading
and learning. We research how Today, as we look forward in 2021,
new technologies, partnerships, or we identified several strategic pub-
business models could expand our lishing opportunities. One of them:
reach in an increasingly competi- the chance to reach and engage
tive attention economy. younger readers, who have come
to expect some level of interactivity
For most of our proof of concepts, and agency from entertainment
we work with partners large and activities. TikTok, Roblox, and Fort-
small to create new experiences nite has shown how people love to
and test them with readers. Al- shape and share their experiences
ternately, we will build our own with friends and co-creators.

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
News & Information
We’ve harnessed augmented We also strive to connect to read- companions guiding them along as
reality to give readers the ability ers on the platforms they haunt: they learn.
to scan the front and back covers creating chatbots of characters
We’ve harnessed of Orbit science fiction books and on social media platforms, teas-
Many of Hachette imprints have
augmented reality magically animate the covers or ing new book titles on TikTok, or
also created podcasts to promote
books, genres, imprints, and au-
to give readers the unlock a special video in which promoting paid newsletters from
thors. The early enthusiasm around
authors seem to speak directly to authors to their most avid fans who
ability to scan the them. Similarly, our educational opted in to receive exclusive offers.
Clubhouse, the audio chat social
network, shows that the connec-
front and back covers publishers created ways for stu-
We also believe that consumers will tions that can be made using the
dents to manipulate 3D objects in a
of Orbit science textbook, and our travel guide divi-
increasingly adopt the audio inter- human voice are just starting to be
face, and that it is leading the way more fully explored.
fiction books and sions created an augmented reality
to ambient commuting. By adapt-
treasure hunt among monuments
magically animate in Paris that leverages the content
ing books that have already been
We believe that data aggregation
and analysis, as well as AI, will con-
the covers or unlock and expertise usually locked in a
published, we’ve re-imagined sto-
tinue to play a big role in publishing
ries that can work on smart speak-
a special video in book while the consumer is out “in
ers by using voice activations to let
in the near future.
the wild.”
which authors seem a child choose their own adventure, Data is key to understanding who
We’ve incubated startups that offer just by speaking a wish out loud. our readers are and what they
to speak directly to new forms of content creation, enjoy and what they want. Reader
Hodder Studio has created audio
them. such as a collaborative writing analytics, then, has been the focus
originals—also known as active
platform that allowed authors to of many of our efforts. We’ve set up
audiobooks—that encourage
react together to pandemic isola- online communities where we can
listeners to garden or cook as they
tion and provided a writing contest A/B test covers, titles, and descrip-
listen. They’ve published Seeds
for high school students to connect tions, and measure engagement
from Scratch and Breaking Eggs
while they were socially distanced. by time spent reading, completion
for people that want expert audio
rates, and qualitative surveys.

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
News & Information
We’ve designed experiments that GPT-3 has just begun to show us Feminist book box being offered by
analyze visual “heat maps” show- how autogenerated text may be Hachette UK, which curates books
ing where the human eye goes on able to extend story worlds and from across 10 different imprints.
By adapting books covers and marketing materials, allow personalization or customiza-
that have already and data aggregation (and AI) to tion at scale. Although AI and data
As the transformation of our
business and our lives continues,
been published, identify cover trends in upcoming will never replace the creativity of
Hachette will continue to bring
publishing seasons. writers or the expertise of publish-
we’ve re-imagined ers, they can be used as powerful
delightful stories and useful infor-
Even fine-grained data about what mation to people in formats both
stories that can work is in our books is also sometimes
tools by those that understand their
traditional and new.
capabilities.
on smart speakers surprisingly hard to access. That
has led us to create a “tagging As sales continue to move online **
by using voice
factory” in France to enhance and digital formats gain traction, Hachette Livre is an international
activations to let a the metadata around titles, word new platforms will arise to support
publisher with a huge variety of
child choose their clouds extracted from full texts in authors, independent booksellers,
publishing segments, and as the
the U.S., and book recommenda- and publishers—and to entice new
own adventure, just tions created using “verbal DNA” readers.
director of the Hachette Innovation
Program Maja Thomas works to
by speaking a wish patterns in books.
All-you-can-eat subscription mod- accelerate the company’s digi-
out loud. We should soon be able to use AI to els, we think, make no sense for tal transformation by testing and
alert a publicity team to focus on books—a long format with deep applying experimental concepts,
a book from Hachette’s enormous engagement and commitment that prototyping new solutions, and
backlist that is newly relevant due isn’t usually bingeable. However,
spreading a culture of innovation.
to a news event. expert curation, early access, and
exclusive content can distinguish
In the future, artificial intelligence
subscription services offered by
will push publishing to evolve even
publishers. One example is the
further.

News & Information
Journalism-as-a-service
“Journalism as a service” lets news The practice of journalism is more than • PRX
On the fringes, news or- organizations sell on-demand access the published report: The best reporters • The Information
ganizations are begin- to the components of their reporting, create an enormous corpus of data as they
rather than just the finished product. work. Finding ways to realize additional • MIT Media Lab
ning to provide journal- • ProPublica
The clearest example to date comes from value from that work could benefit every-
ism as a service, rather ProPublica, which launched a platform one working in the knowledge econ- • The Markup
than as traditional news for selling data. Journalists compiled and omy—universities, legal startups, data
• Rolling Stone
processed the records for their reporting, science companies, businesses, hospitals,
products. This model but the information has uses in oth- and even tech giants. Because journalists
could help develop new er domains. The Markup, a nonprofit are trained to seek out information that
funding streams for journalism outlet reporting on the tech challenges their assumptions, the datasets
industry, has concentrated on building they assemble might help correct for the
cash strapped media tools like Blacklight, which lets users see bias that exists in machine learning today.
companies—but with- how websites track them, and Simple News deployed as a service includes
Search, which shows how paid advertise- different kinds of artifacts: news stories;
out care, it could also ments influence Google search results. APIs; databases; calendar plug-ins for
erode trust in an organi- While those tools are distributed for free, upcoming news events; systems that can
zation’s core reporting. they show how journalism could re-ori- automatically generate reports using the
ent toward product development. In news org’s archives, and more. As those
January, Rolling Stone showed how this tools are transferred from the newsroom
trend might go wrong, announcing that it to the business side, however, there is
In January, Rolling Stone announced that it would would let “thought leaders” pay $2,000 for the risk that journalistic ethics are lost,
let “thought leaders” pay $2,000 for the privilege
the privilege of writing for the magazine’s threatening to tarnish an entire organiza-
of writing for the magazine’s website.
website. tion’s reputation.

News & Information
One-to-Few Networks
Online publishing platform Substack It’s easier than ever for influencers to get • Substack
Technology is lowering lured big names like tech journalist Casey paid for their work—and there’s growing • OnlyFans
the barrier for creators Newton and political columnists Matt evidence that consumers will pay creators
Taibbi and Andrew Sullivan away from directly. Services like Substack and Revue • Twitch
to build a direct connec- • Zello
traditional gigs last year. Substack also offer tools to launch a subscription news-
tion to their audience. gave Glenn Greenwald an outlet when he letter, and Twitch can turn a video game • Patreon
Low-cost tools to pro- quit The Intercept, the national security habit into a streaming video business.
journalism outlet he helped build, in an These platforms are also broadening the
duce newsletters, pod- act of anti-censorship protest. (According definition of what influencers can get
casts, and niche experi- to his editors, he was trying to publish paid for: Patreon has been used to fund
ences allow individuals without evidence.) Greenwald has the community organizing and anti-racism
name recognition to thrive on Substack, projects, while OnlyFans enables creators
to create personal me- but he has a track record of grandiose to monetize their influence through soft-
dia brands. One-to-few claims, and is now free to publish without core pornography. Some streamers can
oversight. Not all niche networks are make a meaningful income, but only by
networks, however, can high-tech: Last year, Wired reported on streaming nearly constantly throughout
be a powerful vector anti-vax propaganda spreading through- the day, without any time off. Unless the
for disinformation and out insular ultra-Orthodox Jewish com- influencer economy evolves to provide
munities in Brooklyn via conference calls. paid time off or other benefits, it will be
misinformation because WhatsApp encountered a similar prob- hard for creators to participate in a sus-
they lack the editorial lem in 2018, when rumors about child tainable manner. Ultimately, all informal
OnlyFans expanded the range of monetization kidnapping spread quickly across rural networks satisfy a basic human need to
for influencers, letting them profit from exclusive safeguards that protect India leading to a series of mob lynchings, connect, but they can also isolate niche
experiences and other offerings.
traditional media. and more recently with the spread of communities by amplifying unverified
COVID-19 misinformation. ideas within the group.
News & Information
Media Consolidation
Media consolidation is coming for digital The U.S. Federal Communications • Vox Media
Consolidation continues upstarts. After several years of increasing Commission’s policy of deregulation • BuzzFeed
as media companies try consolidation among legacy publishers, under Chair Ajit Pai accelerated the
2020 saw a handful of landmark deals pace—and benefits—of consolidation for • Chatham Asset Management
to overcome shrinking • Alden Global Capital
in news media. BuzzFeed and HuffPost legacy companies. But Pai left the FCC
margins on ad-support- merged in November, bringing together on January 20, 2021, and President Joe • Sinclair Broadcast Group
ed media. This trend two of the biggest names in digital pub- Biden will appoint a Democratic majority
• Center for Innovation and Sustainabil-
lishing. Like similar deals in legacy media, to the panel. Watch for major swings on
is now spreading from the tie-up aimed to generate efficiencies key regulations like net neutrality, and for ity In Local Media at the University of
legacy media giants and a bigger scale for selling advertis- disruptions to news coverage in regions North Carolina, Chapel Hill
to digital upstarts that ing. The concentration of legacy news with recently consolidated newspapers.
publishers continued as McClatchy, a Because nearly every major newspaper
need to justify years-old 163-year-old newspaper chain, emerged chain in the United States has seen some
investments that fueled from bankruptcy under the ownership of consolidation in the last year, this trend
hedge fund Chatham Asset Management, will likely impact your region if you live
their growth. Concen- which owns one of Canada’s largest news- in the U.S.
tration of ownership paper companies as well as the publisher
into the hands of a small of The National Enquirer. Chatham beat
out Alden Global Capital, another hedge
group of conglomer- fund. Both funds have a track record for
ates threatens diversity cutbacks at the newspapers they own—one
Chatham Asset Management, a hedge fund with of the reasons that media consolidation
extensive publishing interests, acquired newspa- in the press and on the is generally associated with weaker local
per chain McClatchy out of bankruptcy.
airwaves. news coverage.

News & Information
I-Teams for Algorithms and Data

The Markup, a news website focused News organizations need reporters who • The Markup
The best journalism on the societal impacts of big tech and can work collaboratively in teams with • Bellingcat
reveals hidden truths algorithms, began publishing in 2020. diverse skills, from explaining technical
The startup distinguished itself with pub- concepts and reverse engineering code • Washington Post computational
and keeps those in journalism team
lishing tools like Blacklight, a real-time to developing sources and processing
power accountable to privacy inspector, and Simple Search, a geospatial information. As technology • New York Times visual
the public. Increasingly, browser add-on that removes sponsored advances, it is harder for laypeople to investigations team
search results. Like the Online Political understand how systems function—even
that means unpacking Ads Transparency Project, a New York as those systems become more deeply
• Tow Center for Digital Journalism
at Columbia University
how algorithms and big University initiative that aims to expose embedded in the fabric of our society.
how political Facebook ads targeted Understanding where information comes • Computational Journalism Lab
data shape our world. at Northwestern University
different users, The Markup’s tools are from, how it spreads, and the impact it
News organizations meant to make it easier for laypeople to has—not to mention explaining the out- • Online Political Ads Transparency
need specialized re- see how they are tracked and targeted comes of algorithmic decision-making— Project at New York University
online. The New York Times Visual are central responsibilities for journalists
porters with the techni- Investigations unit made a splash in Jan- who wish to hold powerful systems
The Markup built a browser extension called
Simple Search that helps users differentiate
cal skills to understand uary 2020, using crowdsourced video to accountable. Investigating algorithms
between “traditional” search results and ads or how technology oper- re-create the exact moment that an Irani- has never been more important than it
other results. an missile shot down a Ukranian airplane. is now.
ates in the world, and to That report required fusing multiple
explain it to a nontech- disciplines to synthesize a conclusion that
undercut the Iranian Air Force’s original
nical audience. narrative about what had happened.

News & Information
The Subscription Economy Matures

Whether it’s subscriptions, member- Every subscription business has a broad • Fortnite
A proliferation of con- ships, or donations, we’re living in the set of competitors. Local newspapers, for • Roblox
tent competes for audi- age of audience revenue. But the sub- example, aren’t just competing against
scription economy is bigger than news The Washington Post and The New York • The Membership Puzzle Project
ences’ time and money, paywalls, streaming video services, and • Scroll
Times—they’re competing for time and
opening new opportu- direct-to-consumer offerings: Soon,
share of wallet with every other audi-
more consumers will be asked to pay
nities for media compa- for virtual fashion, XR experiences, and ence-funded business. To track the future
gaming. Software-as-a-service companies of subscriptions, watch gaming platforms
nies while also risking like Fortnite, which is free but boasts
like Piano and Pelcro make launching a
that the abundance of subscription or membership program an ecosystem of in-game purchases that
subscription options relatively easy. Keeping subscribers is successfully entices users to spend—how
harder: Subscription service platform many news subscriptions can honestly say
could overwhelm con- Zuora reports that media businesses have the same? The growth of the subscription
sumers’ willingness (or an average annualized churn rate of near- economy also raises important questions
ly 34%, the highest of any sector studied, around access and equity. As Heather
ability) to pay. Without and on-demand streaming services face Bryant, a respected journalist, observed on
entrepreneurial thinking even higher rates of subscriber loss than
Twitter during the U.S. presidential elec-
news media, according to The Informa-
and business model in- tion: “Arguably one of the most critical
tion. Meanwhile we’re living through the
first major recession since the launch of events in the modern history of this coun-
novation, news organi- try is happening with the election right
most digital subscription programs, with
zations may not keep up consumer spending on “other services” now and most of the contextual analysis
Video games like Fortnite create an ecosystem of
such as subscriptions dropping 17% in the is behind registration boxes and paywalls
rewards that entices users to spend. with emerging media. while all the misinformation and conspir-
second quarter of 2020, and remaining far
below pre-pandemic levels into 2021. acies are a free, easily accessed buffet.”

News & Information
Trust in Media
A healthy dose of skepticism makes for a Edelman’s annual trust barometer re- • Google
The spread of misinfor- strong electorate. But deepfakes, inten- vealed a sobering reality in America: for • Facebook
mation will continue un- tionally misleading stories, and salacious the first time, trust in traditional media
content posted by political operatives, dropped below 50%. Trust in social • Twitter
til platforms and news
hackers, and foreign governments have media hit an all-time low of 27%. The
organizations adopt led to increased calls for new methods to study found that 58% of Americans think
norms and standards rebuild our trust in the media. In Febru- that “most news organizations are more
ary 2021, Twitter said that it would apply concerned with supporting an ideology
for accountability and labels to tweets containing misleading or political position than with informing
trust. information about COVID-19 vaccines, the public.” When Edelman re-polled
and while Facebook said that it would Americans after the 2021 inauguration of
ban vaccine misinformation, the platform President Biden, the numbers had deteri-
struggled to manage a deluge of fake orated further: only 18% of Republicans
health data and conspiracy theories. said that they trust traditional media. As
platforms come under increased scrutiny
this year for issues related to antitrust, we
expect to see demands for transparency
and traceability.
Trust in media is at an all time low.

News & Information
The First Amendment in a Digital Age

Constitutional law often lags behind This year, First Amendment rights and • American Civil Liberties Union
The First Amendment technology, taking time to adapt and protections from Section 230 of the Com- • Electronic Frontier Foundation
shapes how platforms evolve as historic concepts are applied to munications Decency Act will be debated,
new situations. In the past year, plat- though we may not see any concrete • U.S. Federal Communications
and publishers think Commission
forms have removed individual posts decisions. Brands, news organizations,
about the design, and in some cases deleted the accounts political movements, and big tech compa- • Knight First Amendment
development, and of people posting hate speech, intention- nies will continue to face challenges. Institute at Columbia University
ally misleading information, or calls for
implications of con- violent attacks. In 2021, Amazon Web
tent distribution. First Services removed far-right social net-
Amendment legal pro- work Parler from the cloud in the wake
of the attack on the U.S. Capitol. Social
tections are broad in media sites aren’t modern-day public
scope but limited in ge- squares: Tech companies set the rules
and shut off megaphones. While the First
ography; they only ap- Amendment’s protections in the U.S. are
ply in the United States. generally broad, its scope is limited in an
interconnected world.
Federal courts are divided on how the First

Amendment applies to social media.

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News & Information
AutoINcorrecting History
Near-future catastrophic scenario

We marvel at how simplistic the deepfakes of 2021 were.
What began as a curiosity to see our ancestors move
and speak quickly morphed into a new breed of decep-
tive technology designed to cancel cancel culture. We’ve
resurrected people and put words in their mouths, edited
their personalities, our relationships with them, and ulti-
mately clouded our memories of the lives they lived. We
are told that politicians caused great harm—but now, we
can’t remember what it was, or why people were so mad
at the time. With their digital extensions scrubbed, they
all seem like rational, likable people.

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News & Information
Application
STRATEGY INNOVATION R&D RISK
The multiverse, along with shifts in Synthetic media and content can be Synthetic media can be additive to the We are entering a new, and very compli-
content distribution, will eventually used for new product ideation, to test traditional R&D process. Teams making cated, field of intellectual property law.
affect an organization’s reputation, its designs, and to help anticipate what’s use of digital twins, experimental digi- This leads to thorny questions about an
messaging, and some of the regulatory on the horizon. Given the complexity of tal extensions, and other forms of new organization’s legal rights to the content
protections under which it operates. new media technologies, chief innova- media can accelerate vital research, es- it builds and licenses. Chief risk officers
Chief strategy officers should engage tion officers must consider alternative pecially in urban planning, mobility, and should explore dimensions of intellec-
more closely with others in the C-suite, uses of what their teams develop: Once health-related fields. For those working tual property in an age of augmented
especially chief technology officers, a product hits the marketplace, it could in creative industries, a transformation media. There are longer-range implica-
chief marketing officers, and chief be used to spread misinformation or is underway, which will unlock new busi- tions to consider, including brand safety
innovation officers to develop a lon- cause harm. ness opportunities and shape the future and consumer trust.
ger-term strategy and vision for the of media and entertainment.
organization.

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News & Information
Key Questions We recommend using this report to support your strategic

foresight activity in the coming year. Every executive team should
begin by asking these questions:
1 2 3
How will new media What aspects of our How will our employees
?
technologies improve our business could be and customers find
operations? disrupted by synthetic information in the
media or shifting news future?
Our manufacturing
models?
processes? How might new
Are we adequately paradigms be used
Our product lines?
planning for the longer to our organization’s
term? advantage, or to our
detriment?
What assumptions must
hold true for our current
strategy to succeed?

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News & Information
Selected Sources
https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/docu-
ment/7344759
https://www.propublica.org/datastore/
https://www.motherjones.com/me-
dia/2020/03/whatsapp-coronavi-
rus-misinformation/
https://www.cjr.org/special_report/sub-
stackerati.php
https://www.poynter.org/locally/2020/
hedge-fund-chatham-asset-manage-
ment-buy-the-mcclatchy-newspaper-
chain/
https://www.bellingcat.com/
https://engineering.nyu.edu/news/
now-transparent-political-advertis-
ing-facebook-instagram
https://themarkup.org/google-the-gi-
ant/2020/11/10/introducing-sim-
ple-search
https://themarkup.org/blacklight
https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/
mixed-reality/capture-studios

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News & Information
Authors
LEAD AUTHORS
Marc Palatucci Sam Guzik

Senior Foresight Associate Foresight Affiliate
Future Today Institute Future Today Institute
mpalatucci@futuretodayinstitute.com
Marc Palatucci is a Senior Foresight Associate at the BA in Linguistics and Languages from NYU’s Gallatin Sam Guzik is a Foresight Affiliate specializing in
Future Today Institute, with research specializations School of Individualized Study. Palatucci serves as technology, media, digital products, subscription
in new realities (AR/ VR/ MR/ DR), digital fashion, editor-at-large for an arts, fashion and culture mag- products, and newsroom tools. His career includes a
future of work and learning, retail and e-commerce. azine and collaborates with writers, designers and broad range of experience that includes product man-
He co-leads the MBA course in strategic foresight at producers on films, TV shows and commercials about agement, strategic foresight, scenario forecasting,
the New York University Stern School of Business. science, technology and the future. audience engagement and leadership in legacy news
Palatucci serves on the World Health Organization’s organizations. Passionate about building a sustain-
Learning Strategy Advisory Group and is a Senior able future for local news, Guzik has demonstrated
Deputy to the World Economic Forum’s Platform for results creating innovative, engaging and impactful
Shaping the Future of Media, Entertainment and Cul- journalism — and thinking about the business model
ture. He holds an MBA in Emerging Technology from to support that work. Guzik is a graduate of Wash-
New York University’s Stern School of Business and a ington University in St. Louis, Columbia University
Graduate School of Journalism and the NYU Stern
School of Business.

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
News & Information
Authors
FTI CONTRIBUTORS ADDITIONAL CONTRIBUTOR
Amy Webb Leah Zaidi Cathy Hackl

Founder and CEO Senior Foresight Associate Futurist
awebb@futuretodayinstitute.com lzaidi@futuretodayinstitute.com
Amy Webb pioneered FTI’s data-driven foresight ty’s Säid School of Business, was elected a life member Leah Zaidi is an award-winning futurist with special- Cathy Hackl is a futurist with specializations in aug-
methodology that is used within hundreds of organi- to the Council on Foreign Relations and is a member izations in systems thinking, worldbuilding, science mented reality, virtual reality and spatial computing.
zations globally. Her focus is to transform organiza- of the Bretton Woods Committee. She is a member of fiction prototyping and experiential futures. She is an She was named to the 2021 Thinkers50 Radar list of
tions as they prepare for complex futures. She advises the World Economic Forum where she serves on the Associate Editor of the World Futures Review. She the 30 management thinkers most likely to shape the
CEOs of the world’s most-admired companies, three- Global Future Council on Media, Entertainment and holds an MDES in Strategic Foresight and Innova- future of how organizations are managed and led.
star admirals and generals, and the senior leadership Culture and the Stewardship Board of the Forum’s tion from OCAD University and a BA from York
of central banks and intergovernmental organiza- Platform for Shaping the Future of Media, Entertain- University.
tions. She leads FTI’s technology research initiatives ment and Culture. Webb is the bestselling author of
on AI, synthetic biology and genetic engineering, several books about strategic foresight and emerging
next-generation networks, and quantum technologies. technologies. A lifelong science fiction fan, she col-
Webb is a professor of strategic foresight at the New laborates closely with writers and producers on films,
York University Stern School of Business, where she TV shows and commercials about science, technology
developed and teaches the MBA course on strategic and the future.
foresight. She is a Visiting Fellow at Oxford Universi-

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
News & Information
Authors
EDITORIAL
Jennifer Alsever Cheryl Cooney

Editorial Director Director of Operations
jalsever@futuretodayinstitute.com ccooney@futuretodayinstitute.com
Jennifer Alsever is the Future Today Institute’s For over a decade, Cheryl Cooney has served as the
Editorial Director. She has been a journalist for more Future Today Institute’s director of operations, where
than two decades covering tech, biotech, startups and she manages workflows, planning and logistics.
business for such publications as Fortune Magazine, Cooney is a published poet, with works appearing in
the Wall Street Journal, the New York Times, Wired American and Australian anthologies.
and Fast Company. A popular young adult fiction
writer, Alsever has won multiple YA awards for her
Trinity Forest Series.

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
News & Information
Authors
CREATIVE BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT
Emily Caufield Julia Durgee Mel Blake

Creative Director Artist and Futurist Business Development
Future Today Institute mblake@futuretodayinstitute.com
ecaufield@futuretodayinstitute.com
Emily Caufield is an award-winning designer and Julia Durgee is a rare left and right-brained MBA with Mel Blake handles commercial development and
illustrator. Serving as FTI’s creative for more than a creative, strategic, analytical, and digital experience at client relations for FTI. He was formerly founder
decade, Caufield applies design thinking to visually world-class brands. She illustrated the portraits that and managing director of Monitor Talent, a speaker
communicate complex trends, scenarios and foresight appear in this year’s trend report. agency he founded at the Monitor Group, a global
research. Caufield designed all aspects of this year’s consulting firm. He is a board member of The Yale
trend report. She is a graduate of Boston University’s Center for Customer Insights. He holds an MBA
College of Fine Arts. from the Yale School of Management and a BA in
Economics from Wesleyan University.

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
News & Information
Why FTI
We answer your most challenging questions using data, We support executive leaders and their teams.
creative inquiry, and strategic foresight.
The Future Today Institute works closely with executive leadership and management
teams to transform their strategic thinking on the future. Advisory services include
• What are plausible deep (20+ years), long-range (10+ years), and near-term
signal mapping, trend identification, scenario development, risk modeling, visioning,
(2+ years) futures?
and strategic planning.
• What scenarios describe our futures?
• What’s happening outside my industry that I should know?
• What companies, startups, and partners make up our future value network?
• What new products, services, or businesses should we build?
• Which tech trends should we monitor? When should we act?
• How can we build an early warning system to see the next disruptive event?
• How do we reduce uncertainty about our futures?

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
News & Information
About the Future Today Institute
Founded in 2006, the Future Today Institute researches, mod- Contact Us

els, and prototypes future risk and opportunity. As the lead- The Future Today Institute
ing strategic foresight and futures management consultants 33 Irving Place
to executive leadership teams worldwide, FTI’s data-driven 10th Floor
New York, NY 10003
applied research reveals trends and calculates how they will
disrupt business, government, and society. hello@futuretodayinstitute.com
267-342-4300
Together with our clients and partners, FTI is helping leaders
www.futuretodayinstitute.com
achieve their preferred futures. Our pioneering, data-driven
forecasting methodology and tools empower leaders to make
better decisions about the future, today.

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
News & Information
Disclaimer
The views expressed herein are the authors’ own and are not representative of the
greater organizations in which they have been employed. The names of companies,
services, and products mentioned in this report are not necessarily intended as en-
dorsements by the Future Today Institute or this report’s authors.
The Future Today Institute’s 2021 Tech Trends Report relies on data, analysis, and
modeling from a number of sources, which includes sources within public and private
companies, securities filings, patents, academic research, government agencies,
market research firms, conference presentations and papers, and news media stories.
Additionally, this report draws from the Future Today Institute’s previous EMT Trends
Reports, FTI Trend Reports, and newsletters. FTI’s reports are occasionally updated on
the FTI website.
FTI advises hundreds of companies and organizations, some of which are referenced
in this report. FTI does not own any equity position in any of the entities listed in this
presentation.
Any trademarks or service marks used in this report are the marks of their respective
owners, who do not endorse the statements in this report. All rights in marks are re-
served by their respective owners. We disclaim any and all warranties, expressed or
implied, with respect to this report.

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
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This is volume 3 in the Future Today Institute’s

2021 Tech Trends Report. Each volume covers
a different set of topics.
To find additional volumes, visit

www.futuretodayinstitute.com/trends
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Volume 3 of 12

14th Annual Edition

03 Overview 24 Using Synthetic Media to Get

03 © 2021 Future Today Institute

Macro Forces and

Our framework organizes nearly 500 trends into 12 clear categories.

Each trend offers six important insights.

Macro Forces and

Scenarios Describe Plausible Outcomes

2. Temporal and Emotive Tags 3

05 © 2021 Future Today Institute

06 © 2021 Future Today Institute

I do think that a significant portion of the population of

© 2021 Future Today Institute

Keeping Track of New Realities

Technology now blends the physical and

09 © 2021 Future Today Institute

1ST YEAR ON THE LIST

10 © 2021 Future Today Institute

4TH YEAR ON THE LIST

Smart Eyewear and Head-Mounted Displays

4TH YEAR ON THE LIST

AR for the Enterprise

Microsoft’s HoloLens 2 head-mounted Companies of all sizes and industries • CAE

Extended Reality+Immersive eXperiences

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7TH YEAR ON THE LIST

Near-future optimistic scenario

14 © 2021 Future Today Institute

1ST YEAR ON THE LIST

15 © 2021 Future Today Institute

New Realities Trends

16 © 2021 Future Today Institute

The Future of Live new type of hybrid entertainment

© 2021 Future Today Institute

18 © 2021 Future Today Institute

Looking forward the metaverse as depicted in sci- **

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2ND YEAR ON THE LIST

Synthetic Media and Content

21 © 2021 Future Today Institute

Synthetic Media Technologies

22 © 2021 Future Today Institute

Synthetic Media and Society

23 © 2021 Future Today Institute

Synthetic Media and Society

Synthetic Sex Tapes

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How the News more seamlessly into daily life. It

Daily Life News + e-commerce

© 2021 Future Today Institute

2ND YEAR ON THE LIST

Cancel Culture and Accountability Politics

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1ST YEAR ON THE LIST

29 © 2021 Future Today Institute

2ND YEAR ON THE LIST

Geography Reshapes the Virtual World

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Near-future pessimistic scenario

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2ND YEAR ON THE LIST

The End of Attention Metrics