ACTIVITY 6B Shana Taison

After you have collected all the data from your classmates, answer the following questions.
Write and save your answers (in Word, for example) and save a .doc, .docx, or .pdf file named
"ACTIVITY 6B"

Submit work in ONE pdf, doc, or docx file, not two or more.

You may want to complete this work on a separate sheet, take a photo, and convert photos
to .pdf or .doc files.

When finished, click the "Submit Assignment" box in the top right.

If you use your calculator to answer a question, clearly indicate the calculator function you use,
the numbers you input into the calculator, and your output. For example, if you are calculating
the proportion of data between 45 and 65, from a population with mean 50 and standard
deviation of 10, then you will write:
Normalcdf(45,65,50,10) = 0.63

Restate your results from 6A.

1. Count the number of ORANGE M&M's: 17
2. Count the TOTAL number of M&M's: 56
3. Construct a 95% confidence interval for the proportion of ORANGE M&M's using your
data. Round to hundredths. (0.18, 0.42)
I am 95% confident that the true proportion of orange M&M’s in a 1.69oz bag of
chocolate M&M’s is between 0.18 and 0.42.
4. Now, upload photo of MMs, including #ORANGE and TOTAL

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 5. Verify that the requirements for constructing a confidence interval for the proportion
are satisfied. Show work. Please review the video Example of Confidence Interval if
you have any doubts.
a. Verify independence

N 100000
≥ 20 ≥ 20 1785.7 ≥20
n 56

Yes, independent

b. Verify the assumption of normal distribution

n=56 , p=0.3
nρ ( 1− p ) ≥10 56 ( 0.3 ) ( 1−0.3 )=11.76 ≥ 10
Yes, normal distribution

c. The requirements for constructing a confidence interval might not be satisfied,

depending on how many candies were in your bag. If the conditions are not met,
what could you do? (Note—you don’t have to do it, just say what you would do)
If the conditions are not met for constructing a confidence interval, I would not
be able to continue doing the problem. To fix that, I would go to the store for
another bag of 1.69oz of M&M’s in hopes that this next one meets the
requirements. Or I would get a bigger bag of M&M’s so that the chances of
meeting the confidence interval requirements are higher.

5. Below, using the number line below draw your confidence interval as a line segment,
along with those of your classmates. (one number line, with an interval from each
member in your group floating above it) Intervals will be similar in length, or you will
need to check each other's calculations.

= My Confidence Interval

< ---------------------- | ------------------------ >

-0.2 -0.1 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6

6. According to Mars, Inc., M&M's are 20% orange.

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 a. What percent of the class's confidence intervals contained the true proportion of
ORANGE M&M's?
13
=0.7647 0.76
17

Out of 17 people, 13 of us had had confidence intervals that were within 20%.
Therefore about 76% of the class’s confidence intervals contained the true
proportion of orange M&M’s.

b. What percent of the confidence intervals did you mathematically expect to contain
the true proportion? Explain.
I expected the true proportion of confidence intervals to be within 18% - 42%. I
used the 1-PropZInt function in my calculator, and plugged-in x=17, n=56 and c-
level=0.95. That resulted in my lower bound being 0.18 and upper bound 0.42
with my p hat=0.3 and n=56.

7. If sample size had been larger (for example a bigger bag), how would you expect the
confidence interval to be affected?
If there had been a bigger sample size, that would make our standard error
smaller, thereby making margin of error smaller, which would increase the
precision of our data.

8. Now you can pool the data from the class and assume that all the M&M's constitute one
large sample of ORANGE M & M's.
a. Total number of ORANGE M&M's for the entire class: 199
b. Total number of M&M's for the entire class: 944
c. Construct a 95% confidence interval for the proportion of ORANGE M&M's based on
the pooled class data. (0.18479,0.23682)
d. Verbal Interpretation of interval:
We are 95% confident that the true proportion of orange M&M’s in a 1.69 oz
bag of chocolate M&M’s is between 0.18 and 0.24

9. Does this confidence interval contain the true proportion of ORANGE M&M's as
reported by Mars? Explain.
Yes, this confidence interval contains the true proportion of orange M&M’s
because we are within the 20% calculation that was reported by Mars.

10. Do you trust the percentages of the colors reported by the M&M company? (say yes or
no, and give mathematical evidence for your answer.)
Yes, I trust the percentages of colors reported by the M&M company because
with my data I was 95% confident that the true proportion of orange M&M’s is
between 0.18 and 0.42. Now as a class, we were 95% confident that the true
proportion of orange M&M’s is between 0.18 and 0.24. Therefore, both of our

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 results are within the 20% proportion of orange M&M’s reported by Mar’s,
making me trust that their reports are accurate.