ARTICLES OF THE DAY

August 16, 2021

NIHA DAGIA, THE DIPLOMAT ................................................................................................................................. 2

DR SHAMRAIZ AHMAD, DAILY TIMES .................................................................................................................... 4

DR NAAZIR MAHMOOD, THE NEWS ....................................................................................................................... 7

NAUMAN AHMAD BHATTI, THE NEWS................................................................................................................. 10

DR SHAUKAT ALI & MUHAMMAD ARIF GOHEER & RIDA SEHAR KIANI, THE NEWS .............................................. 13

SAMAR QUDDUS, THE NEWS ............................................................................................................................... 16

SHAHID JAVED BURKI, THE EXPRESS TRIBUNE ..................................................................................................... 18

DR MOONIS AHMAR, THE EXPRESS TRIBUNE ....................................................................................................... 21

MASUD AHMAD KHAN, THE NATION ................................................................................................................... 24

SALEEM QAMAR BUTT, THE NATION ................................................................................................................... 26

NAJM US SAQIB, THE NATION.............................................................................................................................. 28

FARZANA SHAH, THE NATION .............................................................................................................................. 30

SULTAN BARAKAT, ALJAZEERA............................................................................................................................. 33

 The Taliban Rides Back to Power in Kabul
Niha Dagia, The Diplomat
That the Taliban is on the cusp
of power in Afghanistan may be
unsurprising, but the speed of
the collapse is undoubtedly
staggering. It appears that as the
United States prepared to exit
and the Ashraf Ghani
government looked towards
Pakistan to blame, the armed
group was already planning
how it would govern the
country.
About 10 days ago, the Taliban
claimed its first victory when it
overran the regional capital
Zaranj in the southwestern
province of Nimroz. On
Sunday, its fighters entered the
Presidential Palace in Kabul.
In just over a week, the Taliban
seized 26 of the country’s 34
provinces, gained control of
major border crossings, and
choked Kabul. Although some
areas such as Herat saw intense
fighting with popular militia
serving alongside the Afghan
security forces, others such as
Jalalabad witnessed armed
forces and government officials
surrender without a shot being
fired.
If the past week is anything to
go by, Afghanistan’s fall reads
more like a story of the Afghan
government’s weakness than
the Taliban’s strength.
Even the Biden administration
appeared to be caught off
guard. The American
establishment had deluded
itself that the Taliban’s military
presence was merely intended
as “leverage” at the negotiating
table, not grasping the fact that
the armed group was
determined to seize power by
force.
On August 12, a U.S. defense
official cited American
intelligence predicting Kabul
could be overrun in 90 days.
That day, the Taliban took over
Badghis, Ghazni, Herat,
Helmand, and Kandahar
provinces.
The next day, a diplomatic
source told CNN that an
intelligence report indicated
Kabul could be isolated within
72 hours. Meanwhile, the U.S.
Embassy in Kabul was told to
“destroy sensitive materials as
well as items.”
The Taliban were at the gates of
Kabul city early Sunday and in
the evening Ghani relinquished
power and flew to Tajikistan
with Vice President Amrullah
Saleh. Meanwhile, Afghan
Interior Minister Abdul Sattar
Mirzakwal announced a withdrawal, coupled with the
“peaceful transfer of power” to
a transitional government.
It would be naive to assume the
fall was impromptu. A 2018
BBC report showed that the
Taliban had an active presence
in several districts with about
15 million people – around half
the population – living in areas
controlled by the militant
group. For years, the Taliban
were running a parallel, shadow
government.
The Taliban were not just
cutting deals in Doha; they
were also secretly reaching out
to important leaders and
Afghan National Defense and
Security Forces (ANDSF)
officials at the village, district,
and provincial levels through
family, friends, and tribal ties.
Ghazni governor Daud
Laghmani, a close aide of
Ghani, reportedly welcomed
the Taliban commander with
flowers while another Ghani
ally and a former deputy
speaker was appointed Kabul
police chief by the Taliban.
Afghan journalist Bilal
Sarwary believes much of the
collapse is due to a disconnect
between the Kabul leadership
and battlefield commanders.
The U.S. and allied forces’
massive corruption that plagues
the Afghan government and
security forces, meant the

soldiers were overworked and
deprived of necessities such as
food rations.
The division amongst
politicians and milking of the
peace process by the leadership
had a “destructive impact on the
psyche of soldiers.” As a result,
many soldiers did not want to
die for a “corrupt government.”
A quick look at recent
developments in Kabul shows
that the Ghani government was
preoccupied with politics; in
the past week alone, as the
Taliban were making rapid
advances, the Afghan
leadership was busy trending
hashtags to “sanction Pakistan”
while Ghani blamed the
country’s deteriorating security
on the U.S. decision to abruptly
withdraw its troops.
While Pakistan has taken credit
for brokering the peace deal
between the U.S. and the
Taliban and wields some
influence over the armed group,
it can hardly be blamed for the
fact that the Afghan security
forces largely stepped aside to
make way for the Taliban’s
ascent.
On the other hand, the U.S.
government’s breathtaking
failure to build a cohesive
fighting force in Afghanistan –
despite spending $83 billion on
training and equipment since
2002 – stands exposed.
Emboldened by the decreased
footprint of foreign troops and
exploiting the lack of
leadership in Kabul, the Taliban
have regained the power they
were stripped of by the U.S.
invasion 20 years ago. But the
3
biggest price for all this chaos
will be paid neither by the
Kabul leadership nor the Biden
administration. It is Afghan
civilians who have been left on
the brink of uncertainty once
again.
A United Nations report
estimates that nearly 400,000
Afghans have been internally
displaced since the beginning
of the year, when the Taliban
launched offensive against the
Ghani government, 244,000 of
them since May alone. The
U.N. Office for the
Coordination of Humanitarian
Affairs has verified that 10,350
IDPs arrived in Kabul between
July 1 and August 12.
This is just the beginning of
what appears to be another
long conflict.

A Practical Way to Achieve SDG Goals in Pakistan
Dr Shamraiz Ahmad, Daily Times
When the Millennium
Development Goals (MDGs)
were introduced in 2000 by
United Nations, the 7th among
the eight main points was
purely related to ensuring
environmental sustainability.
Since then there has been a lot
of hullabaloo about ways to
achieve a sustainable
environment. Following
MDGs, there were Sustainable
Development Goals (SDGs)
introduced in 2016 in a vow to
transform the world into a
better place having 17 main
goals. Pakistan in this regard
has unanimously approved
SDGs in 2016 as the ‘National
Development Agenda’.
Ironically, Pakistan has shown
a grim performance in
achieving MDGs. Therefore,
now for achieving SDGs, it is
incumbent to set some realistic
goals and adapt some efficient
strategies. SDGs encompass the
‘schemes to achieve a better
and more sustainable future for
all. In this regard, the 9th goal
of SDGs states that by the year
2030 all the industries have to
foster the process of using
technology to achieve
‘sustainable industrialisation’.
The 11th goal focuses on
making the cities sustainable as
well as safe. The 12th goal of
SDG is all about ensuring
sustainable production and
consumption patterns.
All of these goals can be
achieved by adopting such
methodologies in the industries
that could assist in maintaining
a sustainable environment and
this should not be done in a
separate process but as a part of
the whole product lifecycle
process. With the contemporary
maxim of “doing more and
better with less” in the
industrial sector,
methodologies like Life Cycle
Assessment (LCA) have been
the need of the hour. LCA is
involved in the entire life cycle
of a product, so as a parallel
process, it can certainly
contribute to achieving not only
required industrial standards
but also international standards.
Even though we can find plenty
of articles and discussions on
the suggestions to achieve
SDGs in Pakistan, we are still
much far behind in applying
them practically. There are two
major reasons for this
unfortunate situation in
Pakistan. Firstly, achieving
4
SDGs is perceived to be the
responsibility of the
government only, and secondly
the available literature provides
little guidance on using various
tools that may help in achieving
these goals in a practical way.
To this end, life cycle
assessment methodology is the
answer, as it allows an effective
comparison of products,
processes and technologies
with the help of which the
decision-makers can easily
decide about the one with the
least impact on the
environment. Conducting LCA
studies in Pakistan’s industrial
sectors could help to actually
target various SDGs that are
related to environment,
production and consumption,
employment creation and
others.
Pakistan ranks 129 on the SDG
index as per the latest studies.
We need to be on track and set
some realistic strategies to
achieve the 2030 agenda under
SDGs for sustainable
development.
As LCA is there from the very
first step of the lifespan of a
product till the last, from raw
material extraction to the step

of manufacturing following the
disposal or recycling stage,
therefore it has a positive
chronic impact by mitigating
the environmental hazards
attached with product
production. As defined and
explained by the ISO, the major
focus of LCA has always been
on the fact that how a product,
process, technology or service
is playing its role in global
warming, acidification,
resource depletion and others.
LCA uses tools like ‘Carbon
Footprint Measurement’, by
assisting in assessing the
possible impact of utilization of
water on the ecosystem and
overall facilitates keeping a
track of greenhouse gas
emission. Moreover, the notion
of ‘handprints’ to reduce or
prevent the negative impacts
while creating the positive
impacts is another feather in the
cap of LCA. By considering the
aforementioned and many such
methods and tools LCA
provides it becomes incumbent
to instill LCA methodology in
the industries of Pakistan to
categorically achieve SDGs
goals effectively and
efficiently. LCA has been
following all the international
standards and is a holistic
approach in prominently
reducing the environmental
impacts of a product. Industries
in Pakistan are in a dire need of
a good data-intensive model
that can help in pursuing the
environmental-related goals in
SDGs and LCA in this regard
has all the key features of a
good environmental
management tool.
Pakistan ranks 129 on the SDG
index as per the latest studies.
We need to be on track and set
some realistic strategies to
achieve the 2030 agenda under
SDGs for sustainable
development. Pakistan is the
5th most vulnerable state to
climate change, it is high time
to practically adopt
methodologies that would help
control the variables that are
provoking climate change and
environmental hazards.
Pakistan should set new
revolutionary development
agenda by keeping the stats of
post-Covid setbacks in the
industrial sectors. The
policymakers need to redefine
the strategies associated with
achieving SDGs, and an array
of thoughtful reforms is needed.
There must be interaction
among the various goals set
under SDGs for instance goal
13 related to climate change is
connecting with the 11th and
12th goal which is related to
environmental sustainability.
5
‘Green Tax’ culture should be
adopted by both the public and
private sector of Pakistan so
that methodologies like LCA
can easily be implemented in all
sectors of industries. The
private sectors in this regard
should not take the taxes as a
loss of competitiveness. This
would rather help the
manufacturers in Pakistan to
ensure environmental labeling
of the consumer products.
Environmental labeling may be
used as a marketing tool for
increasing sale both in national
and export market. Thus, the
industries in Pakistan must
provide synergies among
various activities to foster the
process of adapting LCA as an
essential part of the life span of
a product being manufactured.
In addition, performing and
reporting more LCA studies
would help develop life cycle
inventory databases that are
currently not available in
Pakistan. The availability of
such databases at national level
for various industrial sectors
can be used for various types of
analyses and policy decisions.
In Pakistan, various
stakeholders, such as
industries, academic
researchers and public
institutions should play their
active and coordinated role in

making LCA an imperative part
of the entire process and target
the SDGs in a measurable way.
There should be an active
‘Regulatory and Industry led
Policy’ to normalize LCA as
part of our industries. With the
help of various institutions, like
State Bank, Higher Education
Commission, the Ministry of
Science and Technology, and
the Ministry of Industries and
Production, we may assist
industries and academic
researchers for systematic and
practical implementation of
LCA in industries. The
academic institutions may
provide the technical services,
whereas the government
institution may offer the
financial support. In this regard,
the Pakistan Bureau of
Statistics should bring a
‘regime of mandatory
reporting’ for the industries
where all the stats and data
should be publically available
on the life cycle environmental
and sustainability impacts of
their products, processes and
technologies. The urgency for
environment protection
initiatives under SDGs requires
adopting international
standards such as LCA in our
industries at a fast pace.
Moreover, the tree plantation
drive at the government level is
an appreciable act, however this
alone is not enough. The
problem of environmental
degradation is multifaceted that
requires to be confronted by
everyone, especially by our
industries in order to manage it
at the root cause level. In a
nutshell, we can potentially
6
control the environmental
impacts by adopting LCA in the
industries of Pakistan which
will eventually contribute to
achieving SDGs. There must be
more practical examples of
implementation of LCA in
various industries of Pakistan to
have fruitful results. The
government of Pakistan, all the
regulatory bodies, and the
private sector should do a
collective effort to bring forth
LCA as a mandatory part of
industries for the better future
of our coming generation else
they would not be able to meet
their needs from the
environment.
The writer is an assistant
professor at NUST

The Afghan scramble
Dr Naazir Mahmood, The News
It looks like a story from a
trashy airport thriller – US
troops arriving in Afghanistan
to help American diplomatic
staff and others leave.
Countries are scrambling to
evacuate their citizens and the
Taliban are advancing rapidly.
The capital of the Logar
province that the Taliban
captured on Aug 13 is just
80km from the country’s
capital Kabul.
The UN chief is concerned that
the situation is spinning out of
control. Afghan civilians are
bracing for devastating
consequences as millions of
people find themselves under
threat, with hundreds of
thousands already having left
their homes. The foreign troop
withdrawal after 20 years of
military operations has
encouraged the Taliban to
intensify their attacks and
occupation strategy. The
Afghan people had made some
noticeable gains since 2001,
when the Taliban were ousted
from power. These gains were
in multiple fields such as
restoration of the education
sector from the primary to
higher levels.
As an educationist, I visited
Afghanistan multiple times and
went to many provinces across
the country where schools and
colleges were receiving modern
textbooks; teachers were happy
to be participating in teacher-
education programmes that
international donors and UN
agencies were offering. At the
university level, many Afghans
who had acquired their degrees
abroad were teaching a young
generation of bright and
intelligent boys and girls who
were keen to contribute to the
development of their country.
The human-rights situation was
also much better than it was
before 2001 under the ferocious
Taliban rule.
All these gains are once again
in reverse gear – and this
reversal is much swifter than
anyone could anticipate. Once
again, women will be forced to
adhere to moral policing set by
the Taliban. Girls and women
of Afghanistan are once again
scared as the Taliban in their
previous regime did not allow
girls over 10 to go out to seek
education in schools, colleges
and universities. Both men and
women remember the brutal
7
punishments, including public
executions, that the Taliban
imposed with impunity across
Afghanistan in the late 1990s
when they had their primary
base in Kandahar.
The Taliban have once again
seized the country’s second
largest city Kandahar and the
nearby city of Lashkar Gah.
Herat in the west had already
fallen to them a week earlier.
With more than half of the
provincial capitals under their
control, it appears to be a matter
of weeks before they enter
Kabul triumphantly. This
situation should be deeply
concerning for the rest of the
world. Unfortunately, there are
many who love to downplay the
suggestion that a catastrophe is
in the making. The women of
Afghanistan – especially the
educated and the young – are
under imminent threat from the
group.
Though the US has sent 3,000
troops to help evacuate its
diplomatic staff, it does not
intend to do anything regarding
the impending crisis in
Afghanistan. All talks about
actively supporting democracy,
backing human rights groups,

and promoting gender equity
have evaporated in thin air. The
airlift by the US reminds many
of the airlift in 1975 from
Vietnam. Nearly half a century
later, history is repeating itself;
or is it a broader game plan that
we do not comprehend at the
moment?
And what is in store for
Pakistan, when US President
Joe Biden prefers to just ignore
this long-term ally? This is a
partner whose military dictators
from generals Ayub and Yahya
to Zia and Musharraf were all
eager to offer their services. If
the Taliban capture Kabul in
September, it will be exactly 25
years since they last entered
Kabul in September, 1996.
Some assessments by analysts
and even ‘strategists’ in
Pakistan suggest that the
advance of the Taliban to Kabul
would be beneficial to Pakistan.
Just like they suggested in the
1980s that the advance of the
Mujahideen would be all good
for Pakistan. The Najibullah
government had also tried to
bring some positive changes to
Afghan society.
But the Mujahideen – who were
supported by countries such as
Egypt, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia,
and most of all the UK and US
– were loath to it. In the 1980s,
8
the so-called international With dwindling food and
community was all against a medical supplies, Afghan
more forward-looking civilians are facing extreme
Najibullah, and whole- food insecurity.
heartedly supported much more
Critical infrastructure that
backward-looking and
emerged in the past 20 years is
conservative religious forces in
crumbling; schools and clinics
the shape of the Mujahideen.
are not functioning; and as
Then, even more – or perhaps
neighbouring countries keep
the most – conservative and
their borders closed, refugees
regressive forces emerged and
have nowhere to go but turn to
wreaked havoc with
Kabul which itself is not safe.
Afghanistan and other
According to UN estimates, in
countries. The emergence of
the past month alone civilian
Al-Qaeda, Daesh, Hizbut
loss of life has already crossed
Tahrir, ISIS, the various
a thousand mark, if one just
incarnations of the Taliban and
looks at the reported deaths; the
numerous other extremist
actual number is feared to be
groups, was a logical corollary
much more as the details of
of what the ‘international
atrocities are not reaching the
community’ did in the last two
outside world.
decades of the 20th century.
In the past 40 years,
Now the same community must
Afghanistan has seen many
make it clear that power seized
takeovers; and all appeared to
through military force is
be just makeshift arrangements.
unacceptable. The most
The outskirts of the country
affected by this tragedy are
have largely remained out of
women and children, and the
Kabul’s writ. If you travel
world cannot simply look the
across Afghanistan, you
other way. This conflict has
witness mostly scrubland for
taken a heavy toll on the most
hundreds of miles, interspersed
vulnerable in Afghan society.
by villages and towns. Those
The carnage must end now as
villages and towns are now
the people in Afghanistan – and
once again witnessing fleeing
in neighbouring countries, for
civilians carrying the bare
that matter – have paid the
essentials. Just in recent days,
highest price, all while the
over 100,000 people have fled
Western countries have not
to Kabul and are sleeping on
borne the brunt of this conflict.

streets with no food or
facilities.
As most charity institutions and
development organisations
funded by international donors
have already packed their bags
after repeated attacks on them,
the displaced are at the mercy
of the elements. Nothing short
of an immediate ceasefire will
stop the fighting. All those
smirking or feeling a sense of
jubilation need to visualize a
child covered blood and a
mother crying for her son. If we
don’t like to see this in our
country, we must oppose this in
other countries too, especially
in our neighbours’ homes.
9
So far, only Canada has come finances and inspiration to
up with a plan to settle more move forward.
than 20,000 vulnerable
The world community has
Afghans. Some other countries
failed them and, what to talk of
including Pakistan are also
education and health, these
offering help to journalists and
people are looking for shelter
media personnel. These are
anew. The freedoms that they
commendable steps, but this
should be growing up with have
approach – without a broader
become a distant dream, the
strategy to counter the Taliban
opportunities they longed for
– will further deplete human
have become an illusion. As the
agency and potential in Afghan
world abandons them, how can
society which has lost millions
some people still remain smug?
of its bright young people who
could have contributed so much The writer holds a PhD from
to the rebuilding of society. the University of Birmingham,
Now in the third decade of the UK and works in Islamabad.
21st century, this new
generation of Afghans needed

Afghanistan’s brain drain
Nauman Ahmad Bhatti, The News
The US government has finally
decided to pull out its troops
from Afghanistan by
September 11, 2021, nearly two
decades after the United States
first invaded to oust the
Taliban.
American President Joe Biden
has shown faith in the Afghan
government for defending its
country from the Taliban. The
Afghan people, however, do
not possess as much faith in
their government as does
Biden.
As a result, Afghanistan is once
again on the verge of a severe
brain drain. Brain drain is when
talented professionals
consistently depart from a
country to pursue opportunities
abroad. The absence of the
cream of the nation leaves the
country hollow and the
economy continues to slide
downhill. Mass unemployment,
insurgency and security
vacuum are the reasons
millions of Afghans have been
forced to abandon their war-
torn country over different
periods of time.
The coming withdrawal from
Afghanistan will not only be
that of foreign troops but also
from the locals who are also
looking for a way out. The
passport offices of Afghanistan
are crowded as people plan
their exit. In an effort to escape
an imminent civil war, about
10,000 citizens seek exit visas
every day. Most of them are
worried about the Taliban
regime and its horrors in
collective memory of the
situation in the 1990s when the
Taliban first took over the
country. They want to leave
before the Taliban seize
complete control.
The finest of professionals are
also vacating, leaving behind an
utterly barren Afghanistan.
Some say that even Afghan
soldiers have started to take off.
It was reported that more than
1,000 Afghan soldiers have
escaped to Tajikistan to avoid
warfare. On the contrary, most
of the soldiers of the Afghan
army do not plan on availing
that option, as they feel the
country is finally theirs to
defend against the decades-old
Taliban threat.
This mass mobility is not novel
for Afghans. Their violent
history of the past 40 years is
filled with such displacements.
10
In the aftermath of the US-
Soviet war in Afghanistan, a
total of seven million Afghans
were forced to flee. The first
ones to leave a racked country
are the most resourceful ones.
They have the financial
advantage. Tertiary workers
like doctors, engineers,
scientists, academics etc have
been usually the first ones to
relocate from Afghanistan. The
poorer ones leave once all is
lost. Well-off refugees have
historically settled in more
prosperous countries of the
West, whereas the poorer ones
were accepted by developing
countries like Pakistan and Iran.
After the Taliban were expelled
by the US in 2001, a ray of hope
emerged. Many displaced
Afghans returned to their
country in a hope to change the
course of their future
generations. Since 2002, more
than 5.3 million Afghans re-
entered their country. But fate
had planned otherwise. This
rate of return now stands at
zero. Since the start of this year,
more than 300,000 Afghans
have been displaced. This
figure is increasing on a daily
basis.

As the Taliban expand their
ruling territory, a civil war yet
again awaits the Afghan soil.
People in Afghanistan who
believe in democracy, civil
liberty and human rights cannot
live under the Taliban. And the
Taliban will not let them in any
case, wanting to apply their
ultraconservative interpretation
of religion to their subjects. The
Taliban will likely end
women’s education. Artists,
activists and journalists are
already being persecuted. Their
expansion is a threat to the
progress the Afghans have
made over the last 20 years.
This is why the departure of
Afghans from Afghanistan is
not only a measure for leading
better lives but also for saving
their lives.
Those leaving Afghanistan
have long sought asylum in
different countries. In most of
those countries, they are kept
undocumented, thereby leaving
them no choice but to do trivial
jobs to earn their living. The
talent is not only leaving the
country but being wasted as a
whole. The jobs of the refugees
seldom match the portfolio
previously maintained by the
professionals back at home.
The brain drain in Afghanistan
has created a new refugee crisis
11
for the West and for countries to deal with the Taliban
nearby. Turkey is seeing one of expansion. This is the very least
the biggest refugee issues, as of what it owes to the Afghan
the number of migrants arriving people. It is barbaric to
there has reached around 1,000 infiltrate a country by force and
per day. Former ambassador of leave without necessary post-
Italy to Nato and former withdrawal peace measures.
national security advisor to the
The arrangement of jobs for the
president of Italy Stefano
Afghan refugees made by
Stefanini has highlighted: “The
Biden in the Refugee
brunt will be felt in the
Resettlement Program for
neighboring countries:
Afghans is of little use. Locals
Pakistan, Iran, Tajikistan.”
complain that only those will
Currently, there are around
benefit from this programme
seven million refugees living in
who had already been working
Pakistan and Iran. That is why
on US projects based in
Pakistan and Iran have publicly
Afghanistan, while others
announced they will not receive
remain on thin ice.
any more refugees. These
people are nowhere near With the Taliban spreading
leaving their sanctuaries. their rule speedily, it would
become extremely difficult for
Those who cannot afford to
students to continue their
leave via the immigration
education. They will have to
process have resorted to illegal
leave the country if they wish to
channels for their departure. As
pursue an education. Those
a result, thousands of refugees
who leave seldom return. A
are being detained for illegally
study finds that those who leave
crossing the borders of various
their native land for Masters or
countries.
PhD degrees are the ones least
This brain drain is a direct likely to return.
outcome of yet another failed
There has hardly been a time of
US war. Washington should
solace on Afghan soil. That is
have planned an effective exit
why millions of displaced
strategy as opposed to the
Afghan refugees have not
current hasty and unthoughtful
returned to their native land.
withdrawal. The US
The pace at which the current
government must support the
expatriation in Afghanistan is
Afghan government militarily
taking place is alarming. It is

expected that most of the
emigrants will never get to see
their hometowns. Returning
immigrants would want to view
their return as a personal
opportunity rather than an
obligation to their home
country. The less opportunities
they see in their home country,
the fewer are the chances of
their return.
The future of Afghanistan’s
people remains unclear, but one
thing is for sure: they are
needed desperately back home.
12
The writer is an engineer and a
scholar of history and politics.
He can be reached at
naumanahmadbhatti@gmail.c
om

Code red for humanity
Dr Shaukat Ali & Muhammad Arif Goheer & Rida Sehar Kiani, The News
The UN’s ‘Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change’
(IPCC) has launched its Sixth
Assessment Report (AR6), with
the aim to provide a
comprehensive assessment of
the physical science of climate
change.
The IPCC had previously
published five assessment
reports, the last (AR5) in 2013-
14, with continuous
improvement in analysis,
evidence, reanalysis and
projections. The current report
– AR6 – is perceived to be the
cornerstone of climate science
for the years ahead, as it
provides greater confidence,
owing to improvement in
observational capacities and
developments in the latest
generation CMIP6 climate and
Earth system models, leading to
better understanding and
consistency between climate
drivers and all the physical,
chemical and biological
processes of the earth system.
Compared to AR5, the model
simulations of CMIP6 used in
AR6 used a new set of
scenarios, derived from the
Shared Socio-economic
Pathways (SSPs) which
incorporated the element of
socio-economic development
in emission pathways as well.
The report explicitly says that
the human influence on the
planet is ‘unequivocal’ and has
caused ‘widespread and rapid’
changes in all the natural
components of the planet.
It has been observed that the
evidence about human
influence over earth systems
has strengthened progressively
since AR5, mainly attributed to
human induced greenhouse
gases emissions leading to
warmer climates. With the
improvements in observations
and reanalysis, the report shows
an alarming warming of 1.09 C
in 2011-2020, compared to pre-
industrial level 1850-1900 with
every year warmer than the
prior one during 2016-2020.
The ‘bad news’ in the report is
that the changes are likely to
exacerbate in the future with
grander impacts. Previously,
the IPCC in its Special Report
on 1.5 C warming indicated that
the global 1.5 C threshold is
likely to be reached between
2030 and 2050. However, in
AR6 it reports that the limit is
likely to reach in the early
13
2030s, keeping in view the
higher emission rates and
enhanced warming over the last
decade. This earlier emergence
of the 1.5 C threshold has also
been indicated by a recent study
conducted at the GCISC which
has shown that the threshold is
likely to reach Pakistan earlier
than the global emergence time,
indicating the higher
vulnerability of Pakistan to the
adverse impacts of the
changing climate.
The report says that the
increased warming trend has
affected all the other
components, due to which the
global precipitation pattern has
also been observed to have
altered in previous years. This
has led to a disparity in
precipitation, with some
regions receiving precipitation
greater than normal while
others having faced dry
conditions. Focusing
particularly on South Asia, it
has been revealed that the South
Asian monsoon has weakened
in the second half of the 20th
century, which is attributed
primarily to anthropogenic
aerosol forcing. However, the
CMIP6 datasets project that

both annual as well as summer
monsoon precipitation will
increase during the 21st
century, with enhanced
interannual variability. Also,
the Himalayan region and
Tibetan Plateau is projected to
experience wetter conditions
during the 21st century.
All these variations are
attributed to changes in the
water cycle due to intensified
warming in the climate system
which affect the water holding
capacity of the atmosphere and
lead to extreme precipitation,
flooding and droughts.
Moreover, it warns that
dangerous heat stress
thresholds will be crossed more
often across much of Asia –
especially in the south. Pakistan
has already been experiencing
recurring heatwaves and an
increase in frequency over the
region as indicated by the IPCC
is likely to pose enhanced risk
to the country, threatening the
wellbeing of the population.
The assessment has also found
an augmented warming of
oceans and subsequent rise in
sea level which, to a greater
extent, has done ‘irreversible
damage’ to earth systems. It has
also been revealed that the
Indian Ocean is warming at a
faster rate which will have
severe consequences to the
adjoining landmasses in terms
of coastal flooding in low-lying
areas of South Asian regions.
The amplified warming of the
Indian Ocean has potential
consequences over Pakistan in
terms of impact over
precipitation patterns, causing
flooding.
Additionally, the increase in
monsoon extremes in the region
is also found to be associated
with increased droughts in the
second half of the 21st century
since heavy precipitation will
be followed by prolonged dry
spells in the region. Such heavy
precipitation events are also
projected to increase over
Hindu-Kush Himalayan,
bearing the potential to cause
flood related disasters in
downstream areas. Moreover,
flooding is likely to exacerbate
due to shrinking glaciers
pertaining to amplified
warming. Snow-cover will
reduce and the snow line will be
elevated. Due to shrinking
glacial and snow cover, water
availability in Pakistan is likely
to be impacted to a larger extent
by the end of the century.
Additionally, the phenomenon
of Elevation Dependent
Warming has the potential to
further worsen the melting over
snowclad HKH Mountains.
14
All the assessments and
projections highlighted in the
report warn of a ‘Red Code’ for
humanity showing that robust
efforts in reducing GHG
emissions to net zero level by
mid-century have become
unavoidable to prevent
irreversible damages to the
climate system; this requires
dedication at the national,
regional and global level.
While Pakistan is already
amongst the top ten most
affected countries to climate
change, these latest findings
highlight a greater risk to the
country at all levels associated
with intensified warming viz
changing monsoon
precipitation, increasing
frequency and intensity of
heatwaves and droughts,
extreme precipitation events
and rising sea level.
Given the most affected and
vulnerable country, the report
intensifies the threats putting
Pakistan in a more challenging
situation than ever for
concerted and swift actions to
mitigate climate change and
build resilience. It also calls for
the need to enhance scientific
research over the country to
dispense support to
policymakers in decision-
making ,and also to provide

country-specific research
materials for future assessment
reports. Though Pakistani
scientists have contributed to
this assessment report, with two
lead authors from the GCISC,
there is a need to come up with
advanced models/ tools
developed with finer resolution
over the country to get insight
into changes at the micro level.
15
The report explicitly demands
global action before it is too late
to act.
The writers can be reached at
ridakiani296@gmail.com and
pirshauki@gmail.com

Samar Quddus, The News
The global pandemic outbreak,
followed by restricted
movement of people and goods,
compelled companies to
instantly delve into innovative
digital solutions by adopting
tech-driven business and social
practices.
As a result, the world after 2020
has become more digitally
enabled. In a tele-everything
world, people have shifted
towards the digital more than
ever, from e-commerce, to
teleconferencing and remote
working, to paperless records
and agreements, to digital
transactions and payments.
Together, this has accelerated
the ongoing process of global
digital transformation,
particularly in the realm of
business and trade across
industries.
As a post-pandemic new
normal, Covid-induced
digitalized events are expected
to continue. However, in-
person communication and
physical activities may resume
only to the extent where the
businesses can accrue most
benefits such as sharing tacit
knowledge or to capture social
value.
The future is digital
A latest report by UNCTAD on
Covid-19 and e-commerce
finds that, while global trade in
goods and services declined
amidst pandemic, the share of
the e-commerce industry in
global retail increased up to 17
percent in 2020. This trend is
most likely to continue
throughout the recovery times
from the disease. The report
also suggests that digitalization
of buyers and sellers helped
reduce the negative impacts of
lockdown on the economy.
While the e-commerce sector
and digital trade has been
dominated by developed
countries, Covid-19 has also
steered up the process in
developing countries since last
year, particularly in Asia. For
instance, China’s online retail
share increased from 19 percent
to almost 25 percent. Similarly,
Thailand witnessed an almost
60 percent increase in
downloading of online
shopping apps in just one week
during March 2020.
Like many developing
countries, Pakistan has never
remained good in keeping pace
with the speed and scale of
advancement in digital
16
technology. Fortuitously, as
businesses around the world are
going through an inflection
point, there is a lot of potential
for the digital economy even for
a technologically lagging
country like Pakistan. The
digital market is experiencing
an unprecedented increase in
terms of e-commerce, e-
contracts, e-payments and
electronic businesses in a trade
processing chain altogether.
A record 35 percent increase in
the market size of the e-
commerce industry has been
observed to be Rs96 billion in
the first quarter of 2021 as
compared to Rs71 billion in the
previous year. Furthermore, the
number of online retailers with
prepayment have increased
one-fourth during the last year.
It has been well-reported that
digital firms are the ones that
got the most out of the post-
Covid scenario, with more than
100 percent growth year-on-
year in the past 12 months. As
these companies continue to
harness the digital economy,
this helps most of them expand
from local to foreign sources of
revenue.

One of the main factors that
may trigger advancement in
digital technology and
compliance with it is the
spillover effect of the rapid
growth in ICT. As the sector
outperformed all other export
service sectors in FY2021 with
47 percent remarkable growth,
the demand of ICT-related
sectors including e-commerce
increased manifold.
What would have seemed
impossible even a decade ago,
with erratic progress and
sluggish growth towards the
digital market for Pakistan,
Covid-19 has brought an
overnight shift towards online
shopping and retailing as well
as online payments.
Being a country of robust youth
population, the ICT industry
has huge potential to grow. The
online customer base has been
expanding from young
individuals to the sceptical
generation. Today, where
households are looking for
online solutions to purchase
basic necessary items, almost
all brick-and-mortar retailers
are going digital. On the other
hand, young entrepreneurs are
making efforts to capitalize the
opportunities of the digitized
economy coming-up with
innovative e-commerce
startups from various fields.
‘Modern problems have
modern solutions’ turns out to
be true as swift digitalization
brought with it a number of
challenges and limitations.
While the digital infrastructure
is at its infancy stage, it has
already created a digital divide
in society. In the Inclusive
Internet Index 2020, Pakistan
ranked at 76th out of 100
countries with only 35 percent
of population having access to
the internet. This has magnified
the gap between the privileged
and the unprivileged, skilled
and unskilled, urban and rural.
The tech savvy will be ahead of
those with limited or no access
to digital tools.
Besides, public perception and
emotions can easily be
manipulated through online
misinformation causing
significant social instability,
disintegration as well as
irrational deliberation and
groundless policymaking.
What is even more alarming are
privacy and security related
issues of free flow of data in the
country.
Given the historic surge in
digital businesses and
marketing during Covid times,
17
a defined e-commerce
regulatory structure and data
protection policy is needed to
strengthen the digital economy.
Efforts have been made by the
government to initiate a local e-
commerce system as well as
provision of internet access to
every citizen. Setting up a
Universal Service Fund (USF)
to extend optic fiber
connectivity is one among
many initiatives the
government has been taking.
However, progress will remain
lackluster for Pakistan which is
already way behind in
technological advancement
until investments are made in
research and innovation.
Even though the government’s
policies seem quite promising,
with new resolutions to set up
improved digital infrastructure,
digital skills and widespread
connectivity under the Digital
Pakistan Vision, its realization
of the existing national digital
policy is an issue that might not
yield valuable tangible
outcomes yet.
The writer is pursuing an MPhil
in development studies at the
Lahore School of Economics.

Global warming: the situation is worse than believed
Shahid Javed Burki, The Express Tribune
This has been an unusual
summer for many parts of the
world. High temperatures and
droughts have affected most of
the American west. There were
widespread fires that burnt
significant acreage in
California, Oregon, and
Washington states. There were
also fires in Siberia. Heavy
rains in India’s western states
resulted in floods. There were
also heavy rains in central
China which caused destructive
floods. The ice shield in the
Antarctica began to melt at a
faster rate than had been
expected. The reason why these
and other weather events were
occurring was provided by the
latest report issued by a high-
powered panel of scientists that
has been keeping a watch on the
way global weather has been
changing. The body, the
Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC), issued
its latest report on August 9,
2021, describing how human
action had altered global
environment at an
“unprecedented pace”. The
panel provided detailed account
of how catastrophic
consequences lie ahead unless
nations around the globe
18
rapidly and dramatically cut any great comparable
greenhouse gas emissions. analogues in the last 2 million
years or so. It is hard for us to
The panel had a number of
predict exactly what will
historians who looked at deep
happen to the Earth’s systems.”
past to see how climate has
The evidence for mankind’s
already affected the Earth and
influence on the climate
the people who live on the
system, “once a fiercely
planet. Each of the past four
debated topic, is now
decades has been successively
overwhelming”, says the
warmer than the one that came
report. What started as a
before it, dating back to 1850.
scientific hypothesis has
Mankind has warmed the
become “established fact”. The
climate at a rate without parallel
report’s 42-page “summary for
since before the fall of the
policymakers” uses the phrase
Roman Empire. According to
“virtually certain” nearly a
the panel’s historians, to find a
dozen times. The words “high
time when the level of carbon
confidence” are repeated more
dioxide in the atmosphere
than a hundred times. The rate
changed this fast and this much,
of sea-level rise, the retreat of
we will need to go back 66
ice sheets and glaciers, and the
million years. That was the time
acidity of the oceans are all
dinosaurs walked the Earth.
described as “unprecedented in
Carbon dioxide in the
the past several thousand
atmosphere has risen to levels
years”. Even the certainty with
not experienced in 2 million
which the panelists presented
years.
their findings has not caused the
If action is not taken, the skeptics in the world of
situation will worsen quickly. policymaking to stop resisting
“The chances of unknown action. The effort by President
unknowns become increasingly Joe Biden has not persuaded the
large,” said Zeke Hausfather, Republican opposition to
director of climate and energy accept his climate agenda.
at the Breakthrough Institute
Thirty years ago, the same
and a member of the United
panel had warned that mankind
Nations Panel. “We don’t have

was causing a dangerous
greenhouse effect and that if
collective action was not taken
to slow Earth’s warming, there
could be “profound
consequences” for people and
nature alike. The latest report
was compiled by 234 scientists
who used 14,000 studies from
around the globe to arrive at
their findings. The report was
released less than three months
before the climate summit
scheduled for November in
Scotland. The UN Secretary
General called the report’s
conclusions “a code red for
humanity” and said nations
needed to find ways to limit
global warming as much as
possible. The report takes
serious issue with the position
taken by former President
Trump and his political
associates who dismissed
global warming as a Chinese
hoax perpetrated to set back
American economic growth. It
states that there is no remaining
scientific doubt that human
action was fueling climate
change. That much is
unequivocal. The only
remaining uncertainty was that
the world can gather the will to
prevent darker times.
To help the policymakers
along, the UN panel presented
its suggestions for action in four
areas. Heatwaves have become
more frequent and hotter.
Projections show that hot
weather will increase in
intensity through the 21st
century even if global warming
is held to 2.7 degrees
Fahrenheit above preindustrial
levels. Places such as
Jacobabad in Pakistan’s Sindh
province will become unlivable
in a few years. Temperature rise
is resulting in heavy
downpours. The panel says in
the report that heavy
precipitation events have
increased since the 1950s over
most land areas around the
world. With more warming, the
experts predict, heavy
precipitation events will
intensify further, increasing by
7 per cent for every 1.7 degree
Fahrenheit of warming. For
South Asia, summer monsoons
bring most of the sub-
continent’s annual rainfall.
These would become heavier
and longer in duration, brining
destructive floods. On the other
end of the weather spectrum,
droughts will become drier.
Observations show that drought
is increasing across substantial
land areas. Several countries in
Africa and the Middle East
have seen reduction in
agricultural output because of
drying land. Scientists also see
19
windier and rainier hurricanes.
Major hurricanes rated
Category 3 or higher have
struck the United States, the
Caribbean and Central America
in recent years, seriously
damaging coastal properties
and displacing tens of
thousands of people. The
tropical Atlantic has seen
several Category 5 storms in
recent years. In Asia,
hurricanes called by different
names have also become more
frequent and destructive.
What are the policy options for
the countries in South Asia that
result from the findings of the
UN panel? Experts recognise
that much of the global
warming was caused by human
action in the more developed
parts of the world. However,
poor and developing nations
such as Pakistan are left to deal
with a number of consequences.
Among these the most
significant is the faster melting
of the glaciers in the mountain
ranges that feed the rivers in the
area. For some decades, the
result will be destructive floods
in the rivers as happened in the
stretch of land in India’s
Himalayan region. A small dam
was destroyed by the fast runoff
in the river and several people
were killed. Such incidents are
 20

likely to occur with some water in the rivers later this The tree-growing project
frequency in the future. century. The Bank suggested a launched by the government of
programme it called the Indus Imran Khan would also affect
Some years ago, the World
Cascades. This was to be series climate; Pakistan has allowed
Bank wrote a report on the
of 12 dams to be constructed on deforestation to procced at a
medium-term impact of glacier
the Indus River. Rather than rate at which a good part of the
melting in the Himalayan
allow the fast-melting ice cover country would be turned into a
region from which the Indus
to produce water that would desert. The main point of this
system of rovers get their
flow into the sea, the storages analysis is that the situation –
waters. The main conclusion of
would save the water for which the UN panel has
the work was that fast melting
programmed use. The under- suggested would affect much of
of glaciers would produce fast
construction Dasu dam being the world – has already arrived
runoffs which would be
built by a Chinese company is in Pakistan.
followed by serious shortage of
one dam in this programme.

The matter of sovereignty
Dr Moonis Ahmar, The Express Tribune
When Pakistan emerged as a
new state on the map of the
world 74 years ago, sovereignty
was not the issue. With the
passage of time, it appeared that
freedom to make and
implement decisions by the
state of Pakistan was gradually
being compromised. Steady
economic and military
dependence on the West,
particularly the United States,
made Pakistan incapable to
protect its national interest and
national security from foreign
influence and interference.
In 2021, Pakistan is the world’s
fifth most populated country
and the only state in the Muslim
world with nuclear weapons,
yet its capability to assert its
position and guard its
sovereignty from external
threats is limited.
According to the Penguin
Dictionary of International
Relations, “Sovereignty is often
regarded as enabling concept of
international relations where
states assert not only ultimate
authority within a distinct
territorial entity but also assert
membership of the
international community. The
doctrine of sovereignty implies
a double claim: autonomy in
foreign policy and exclusive
competence in internal affairs.”
Sovereignty is however
compromised when the state is
dependent either on global
financial institutions for loans
or relies on financial assistance
from various states. Pakistan’s
sovereignty predicament is
getting serious with each
passing day. Two major sources
of financial dependence of
Pakistan to meet its budget
deficit and arrange funds for
development are: World Bank,
IMF, Asian Development Bank
and funds from China under
CPEC. Borrowing from the
governments of China, Saudi
Arabia and the UAE also
deepened Pakistan’s
vulnerability in resisting
foreign pressures
Sovereignty is a double-edged
sword because it stresses on the
country’s independence on
making and implementing
decisions, and on how a state
has to compromise on its ability
to take a stand on issues which
runs contrary to the interest of
donor institutions and states.
Seventy-four years after
gaining independence,
21
Pakistan’s nightmare is
submission of its sovereignty to
foreign institutions and powers
who may dictate terms against
financial assistance. When 50%
of Pakistan’s GDP is under
foreign debt and in order to pay
interest on more than 100
billion dollars of foreign debt,
Pakistan has to take more loans
— something which means
mortgaging state assets for
money. This vicious debt trap is
a major reason behind the
erosion of our sovereignty.
One can figure out three major
dimensions of how the
sovereignty of Pakistan has
been compromised and why the
country has not been able to act
independently on issues which
are critical in nature.
First, in real politic, there is no
such thing as free lunch.
Donors always have an upper
hand on the recipient state
which is the case with Pakistan.
A country’s sovereignty is
fragile and is compromised
when it is on dole. Economic
space comes when the country
is strong in its exports, foreign
exchange reserves, value of its
currency, per capita income and
economic growth rate.

Unfortunately, Pakistan’s
economy has remained import-
driven and devoid of self-
reliance. When Pakistan’s
federal budget is announced,
statistics indicate that more
than two-thirds of revenue is
consumed for debt-servicing
and for meeting defence
expenditures. The remaining
one-third is used to pay amount
to provinces as it is conditional
according to the 18th
constitutional amendment. As a
result, in order to run the
country’s administration and
launch development
programmes, Pakistan has to
borrow from internal and
external sources. Pakistan’s
total public debt is around $200
billion which is augmenting
with each passing day. If the
IMF dictates enhancing power
and gas tariffs and oil prices
and ending subsidies, the
outcome is enormous
escalation in prices of essential
commodities. Sovereignty of
Pakistan is compromised when
the state is unable to say no on
matters detrimental to the
country’s national interests.
Otherwise, the government
would have resisted conditions
imposed by the FAFT under the
cover of controlling money
laundering. No sovereign state
will accept such conditions
unless it is economically weak
and politically fragile.
Sovereignty of Pakistan is
coerced from two sides:
Multilateral financial institutes
and donor states and FATF.
Second, there is a history of the
erosion of Pakistan’s
sovereignty. Ten years ago,
three back-to-back events
seriously undermined the
sovereignty of Pakistan. In
January 2011, Raymond Davis,
an American CIA contractor,
was arrested from Lahore on
charges of killing two Pakistani
citizens and was sent to prison
on judicial remand. The case
was filed in a court and the trial
began. In the meantime, then
US secretary of state Hillary
Clinton approached the
Pakistan government for his
release but since it was a
murder case and Davis had no
diplomatic immunity it was
very difficult to release him.
But, in March 2011, Davis was
released by staging a drama of
paying blood money to the heirs
of the two people killed by him
— something that poorly
reflected on the sovereignty of
Pakistan which came under
pressure from Washington to
release an American national
who was under trial in a murder
case. The second event which
highly undermined the
22
sovereignty of Pakistan was
‘Operation Gerimino’ of May
2, 2011 when US navy seals in
two helicopters sneaked into
the territory of Pakistan,
reached a compound in the
garrison city of Abbottabad,
and killed Osama bin Laden,
who as an international terrorist
with a head money of $50
million. Violating the airspace
of Pakistan and launching an
operation 200 kilometers inside
the territory of a sovereign
country led to an outrage but
nothing happened. The third
incident, which exposed
Pakistan’s sovereignty, took
place in November 2011 when
US forces deployed on Pak-
Afghan border opened fire on
Pakistani forces and killed
more than two dozen soldiers.
In retaliation, Pakistan
temporarily suspended Nato
supplies but took no concrete
step to prevent similar acts, like
drone attacks on its tribal areas.
Third, in prevailing
circumstances in Afghanistan,
Pakistan has refused to provide
logistical support and bases to
the US to launch its air
operations against the
advancing Taliban forces. But
the US air raids in Afghanistan
against Taliban fighters
continue to violate air
sovereignty of Pakistan. The
 23

government of Prime Minister into pressure from any quarter is granted when its sovereignty
Imran Khan may claim that it is but the reality on the ground is is intact and is not subservient
sovereign and doesn’t come different. Respect of a country to foreign dictates.

Skirmishes between Mizoram and Assam
Masud Ahmad Khan, The Nation
India’s North East comprises
eight states surrounded by
China, Myanmar, Bangladesh,
Bhutan and Nepal. Earlier the
region was known as the ‘Seven
Sister States’ before the
inclusion of Sikkim. Its people
are different from the main land
ethnically, linguistically,
religiously, culturally and have
been branded as outcastes as a
result of such differences. The
area become volatile after the
Indian occupation of Kashmir
and in a bid to secure
independence from India, over
200 militant groups have
become operational in the
region. A large number of
Indian army formations and
paramilitary forces have been
deployed as well.
North East Assam is the biggest
state in terms of population and
shares borders with all states in
the region. Meghalaya,
Mizoram and Nagaland were
carved out of Assam. The
establishments of an oil
refinery in Assam attracted a
large number of cheap labor
from neighbouring regions and
East Pakistan. The arrival of the
Bengalis was taken a major
factor for altering the
demography of the region.
Currently there are over 37
insurgent groups in Assam
fighting the Indian security
forces for a separate homeland.
Muslims are 34 percent of the
population against 12 percent in
1947. The important militant
groups are United Liberation
Front of Assam (ULFA),
National Democratic Front of
Bodoland (NDFB), Bodo
Liberation Tigers (BLT),
Adivasi Cobra Force (ACF)
and Muslim United Liberation
Tigers of Assam (MULTA).
The majority population of
Mizoram are Christians and
Bru Tribe (a Hindu community)
came to Mizoran from former
East Pakistan. The main
insurgent groups struggling for
independence here are Mizo
National Front (MNF), Bru
National Liberation Front
(BNLF) and Hmar People’s
Convention Democracy (HPC-
D). In the past, there have been
fierce clashes between the Mizo
and Bru tribes. India had been
accusing Bangladesh for
helping ULFA and BODOS.
The recent skirmishes between
the states of Assam and
Mizoram has given a new
24
dimension to the region which
is already engulfed with
insurgencies. Let us have a look
at the historical perspective of
the issue which led to the
killing of 7 Assamese police
personnel and injuries to over
100.
The North Eastern region came
under British rule in 1826. In
1876, the British demarcated a
boundary between Mizoram
and the Cachar plains in Assam.
By 1972, Mizoram became a
union territory and by 1987 a
state. Assam shares a 164
kilometers border with
Mizoram but both states contest
the demarcation. They claim
that the other has been
encroaching on the land.
Nagaland was first state to
break away from Assam and
made on autonomous state
within Assam in 1957. It was
because of the creation of
Nagalandthat Mizoram’s
borders were redrawn. In 1979,
a massacre took place in which
54 Assam civilians were killed
by a Naga tribal group. In 1985,
clashes also took place between
the Assamese and Nagas at
Merapani. In October 2020,
clashes took place between the

Assamese and Mizos twice in a
week over the disputed region
and houses on either side were
set on fire. In July 2021, the
Assamese police seized a newly
constructed police post after
claiming it was located inside
their territory. Mizo villages
joined their police in an assault
on the Assamese police which
resulted in the killing of7
Assamese police personnel and
injuries to over 100.
The Indian army and CRPF
have been deployed at the
disputed site between the two
states. The CRPF has been
accused by the Mizoram
government of not maintaining
its neutrality as it facilitated the
Assamese attack on the Mizo
police post. The demand of
Mizoram is that the
demarcation along the Inner
Line notified in 1875 should be
accepted as the official border
whereas the Assamese demand
that the demarcation should be
done on the agreements made
later.
The violence has increased
exponentially since the BJP has
taken over. A new dimension
has been added to the already
25
volatile states that are now at
war with each other along
religious lines. The situation
may draw other Christian
majority states into the conflict
as well. Social alienation,
geographical distance, ethnic
divisions and division on
religious lines have made it
difficult for the people of the
North East to identify
themselves as people of the
mainland.
The writer is a retired brigadier
and freelance columnist.

Pak-US relations: Bridging the gap
Saleem Qamar Butt, The Nation
I recently read a short paper
titled ‘The Future of US
Cooperation with Pakistan’, co-
authored by General Joseph
Votel (Ret.) who was
commander of CENTCOM
from March 2016 to March
2019, and Lt. Gen. Michael K.
Nagata (Ret.) who was director
of strategy for the US National
Counterterrorism Centre from
2016 to 2019. I have had the
opportunity to meet General
Votel as senior military and
intelligence representative and
always appreciated his
professional acumen, sober
outlook and mature
understanding of Pakistan’s
predicament accentuated due
US’ invasion of Afghanistan.
Suffice it to say that my hard-
hitting rebuttal to Afghan
representatives and some others
supporting their malicious
narratives, spitting Indian
venom in Afghan Dari at
CENTCOM and other places
was always heard patiently and
advice taken positively by the
American counterparts during
General Votel’s command.
The paper was first published
by the Middle East Institute,
USA. It is stated in the article,
‘The United States and Pakistan
have had a complex and often
disappointing “love-hate”
relationship since 1947—one
severely tested during the 20-
year US-led intervention in
Afghanistan.’ It states that
‘Whatever US strategic
concerns may be about the
future of Afghanistan, the
course and direction of
Pakistan’s strategic choices in
coming years will also matter to
the United States. There are a
variety of reasons for this’. As
per the given rationale,
Pakistan’s nuclear capability,
animosity between India and
Pakistan with Kashmir being a
nuclear flashpoint, Pakistan’s
potential to act as a bridge due
to ties with Muslim countries
like Saudi Arabia, Turkey and
other bordering countries, and
the network of relationship in
an era of “great power
competition” is viewed as a
potential strategic benefit to
any of the great powers like the
USA and China. Lastly, despite
its significant political and
economic difficulties,
Pakistan’s potential as a
growing technology sector with
its youthful population and
worldwide diaspora of
26
Pakistani doctors, scientists,
academics, and other
professionals is considered as
an increasingly important part
of the global community. In my
opinion, all these factors
stipulated by both the insightful
veterans are genuine
expressions of realpolitik
where the new strategic
preference for India to
checkmate the spectacular rise
of China as well as a resurgent
Russia doesn’t mean dumping
and punishing an old tested
ally.
Pakistan’s strategic nuclear
capability is the key to its
survival to prevent any foreign
aggression. It focuses primarily
on deterring Indian uncalled for
aggressive overtures, ironically
at present under a hardcore RSS
follower like Prime Minister
Modi of BJP. Our American
counterparts know very well
that without the resolution of
the humanitarian and political
issue of Kashmir as per UNO
Resolutions, Kashmir will
remain a nuclear flashpoint.
Hence, the earlier the US plays
a positive role in the UN
Security Council to resolve this
72-year-old dispute, the better

for American global stature,
international peace as well as
for US’ better strategic
relations with both countries.
Pakistan has always provided a
diplomatic bridge to the US;
with China in the 70’s as well
as with many other Muslim
countries including a peace
dialogue with the Afghan
Taliban despite continual
proxies launched by India from
Afghan soil with full support of
US installed puppet Afghan
governments.
The good veterans of South
Asia acknowledge ‘the sources
of “weariness and wariness”
that US policymakers, in both
Democratic and Republican
administrations, often associate
with strategic discussions on
Pakistan with subsequent US
government’s reluctance
toward undertaking any kind of
strategic interaction or
rapprochement with Pakistan
because of (mis)perceived
betrayals’.
The papers conclude that ‘the
only thing harder than
establishing a functional and
27
mutually beneficial relationship like to be mastered despite
with Pakistan is living without being befooled repeatedly.
one. Given unstable borders, a
The hardest and trickiest part
nuclear standoff with India, the
both the good writers
continued presence of terrorist
contemplate is to ‘explore the
organisations and the high
possibility of enlisting Pakistan
potential for all of this to further
cooperation, and that of India,
disrupt our interests, there is no
toward some type of partial de-
better alternative’. In their
escalation of tensions along
opinion, the areas worth
their common borders and, with
exploring include ‘the
it, even a slight amelioration of
possibility of planning, along
the nuclear weapons threat’. I
with other like-minded
concur with the positive
international actors (both state
thinking by both the
and non-state), to manage the
experienced persons that is
consequences of significant
suggestive of moving past the
political instability and human
deceitful narrative of
suffering emerging from
‘disappointment’, and urging
Afghanistan, including the
the USA to ‘move beyond
possibility of substantial
neuralgias and carefully weigh
refugee flight into Pakistan’;
the strategic costs of whether
needless to say this is
trying to somehow partner with
something that had remained
Pakistan is more, or less, than
amiss in the last 20 years
the cost of failing to do so. We
despite Pakistan consistent
believe, in the long run, it is
appeal..never too late for a good
likely to be less costly’.
start, nevertheless. If Pakistan
could make the US and Taliban The writer is a retired senior
sit on the dialogue table after army officer with experience in
two decades of meaningless international relations, military
war, there should be no diplomacy and analysis of geo-
reluctance by the US in talking political and strategic security
to an old friend who doesn’t issues.

Afghanistan and beyond
Najm us Saqib, The Nation
The desire to remain in power is
perhaps the most dangerous
pursuit in the political history of
mankind. It convinces one that
he is God-sent, the only savior,
then it paralyses you before
digging your grave. President
Ashraf Ghani is no exception.
In the face of an imminent
victory of the Taliban, he is still
looking for a straw in the sea of
violence to keep floating.
Stepping down and paving the
way for a negotiated settlement
of the Afghan conflict is not an
option for him. Banking on
America’s verbal support to his
Kabul administration, he is
counting the days of his glory
while desperately looking for a
safe exit.
All stakeholders in the Afghan
conflict have a fair idea why the
twenty-year long stay of the US
forces in Afghanistan
culminated in a not-so-
responsible withdrawal; why
the US wants President Ghani
to continue; why the Afghan
forces’ salaries and food would
be provided by the US; why
securing Kabul airport is more
important than defending
Kandahar; or why the US does
not trust Pakistan anymore and
instead would like India to take
lead. If so, then for how many
years are we going to yowl
about the twenty-year stay of
foreign forces in Afghanistan
and the eventual US
withdrawal?
In international relations,
complaints and verbal protests
make you weak and expose
your predispositions but by no
means enable you to get the
desired results. Complaints are
meaningless unless
countermeasures are strategised
and implemented. Forget about
winning an argument on an
international negotiating table
if you do not have the capacity
to inflict harm or render timely
assistance or contribute
substantially in addressing a
challenging situation.
The peace talks between the
Taliban and the Kabul-
nominated Afghan negotiators
that began last September have
made no substantial progress.
Meetings held by various
troikas in Doha or elsewhere
have only been able to reiterate
what is being propagated in the
past two decades proffering a
political solution to the Afghan
conflict. On the other hand,
28
President Biden does not regret
his decision of the withdrawal.
In fact, he has told the Afghan
leaders in no uncertain terms ‘to
come together’ and ‘fight for
themselves’ as his country has
already done enough by
spending over a trillion dollars,
training over 300,000 Afghan
forces and suffered death and
injury to thousands of US
personnel. There goes the most
important guarantor of peace in
Afghanistan.
Simultaneously, a scapegoat
was required and Pakistan was
absolutely not a difficult
choice. No wonder PM Khan is
convinced that the US sees
Pakistan as useful only in the
context of the mess it is leaving
behind after twenty years of
fighting. The obvious clash of
narratives is adding a different
kind of chaos to the already
murky situation. To top it all,
efforts are underway to settle
bilateral scores at every
opportune time either to evade
the truth, play victim or look
tall in the eyes of the world.
Then there is a barrage of
allegations being levelled on
each other thereby trying to
efficiently play the blame game

to gain some space or stay
relevant to one’s standpoint.
Notwithstanding the ominous
writing on the wall, all
stakeholders are reiterating the
pledge to having a political
solution to the Afghan conflict
while the Taliban are set to
attack Kabul. In the ever
diminishing space for
negotiating a settlement
formula, everyone is talking but
no one is listening. No one
knows how and when the
desired broad-based
government will be placed in
Kabul. On the other hand,
living in a constant state of
strategic denial, all concerned
are eagerly awaiting the
inevitable to happen and see the
other shoe dropped. No one is
ready to concede a point yet
everyone is reading out
carefully worded statements
emphasising the need to
address and resolve the conflict
29
amicably knowing full well that the Pak-Iran ties did whereby
bullets neither read nor hear. an erstwhile close friend was
lost somewhere in the Afghan
Pakistan must have analysed in
transit trade corridors. In the
detail what the US had in mind
big swamp of the Afghan
with regard to Islamabad’s role
conflict, let us not forget that
in the latest phase of the Afghan
there is a whole world out there
conflict. Islamabad must have
to handle and life does not
weighed its options and the
begin and end with
extent to which it could accede
Afghanistan. Just a polite
to Washington’s requests. One
reminder that the United States
wonders if the overall future
of America is still the sole
Pak-US relations were also
superpower of the world and
considered especially in the
it’s newly found RSS driven
context of America being the
‘strategic partner’ firmly
largest importer of Pakistani
believes in the philosophy of
goods.
Hindutva. Perhaps, Ashraf
In the next few months, Ghani is not the only one
Afghanistan is likely to be hoping against hope.
settled one way or the other.
The writer is a former
However, the recently added
Ambassador of Pakistan and
frictions in Pak-US ties would
author of seven books in three
be there to haunt Islamabad for
languages. He can be reached
a long time. It is hoped that in
at najmussaqib -
boasting about the strong Sino-
1960@msn.com
Pak ties, the Pakistani
visionaries would not let Pak-
US relations suffer as badly as
 30

Causes of failure within Afghanistan

Farzana Shah, The Nation
The prevailing volatile and during the last two decades the fundamental difference in
strategically critical situation of from the impact of the Afghan policy, not accepting or
Afghanistan is a result of cauldron. Pakistan is also being granting the Taliban’s offer of
nonexistence of blamed for unrest by general amnesty resulted in a
synchronisation of Intra- international media lobbies trust deficit which disrupted the
Afghan Peace Process and the despite the fact that Islamabad political and social process of
withdrawal of the US and has to lose the most if peace in Afghanistan. The
NATO forces. The Afghanistan remains unstable. Taliban were not even included
incomprehensible haste in the Bonn Conference.
Afghan conflict reflects an
displayed by the US, putting
internal power struggle similar No serious efforts were made
aside the lessons learnt from the
to the times during the post- towards establishing an -
sudden abandonment of
USSR withdrawal civil war. inclusive, professional and
Afghanistan in the 90s, has
Since 1979, groups have been merit based armed or security
brought in similar
fighting amongst themselves forces, as well as bureaucracy,
consequences; civil war leading
for the quest of dominance. The for effective governance and
to an influx of fresh wave of
undeniable irony is that are the delivery of basic services.
refugees.
fighting amongst themselves Carpet-bombing of rural
The rapidly deteriorating law instead of the invaders. The Afghanistan resulting in
and order situation in Afghans today too have to massive collateral damage and
Afghanistan has ushered in a search for the causes of failures further alienated the Afghans.
blame game as well. Afghan from within their own ranks and
Matters were further
government first accused files and shoulder their share of
compounded by wide spread
Pakistan, without putting responsibility of stabilising that
corruption. The Kabul Regime
forward any evidence, of war torn country. No imposed
embezzled much of the $100
providing support to the solution from outside will work
billion aid to the Afghan army
Afghan Taliban and now, the in the future.
and most of it shifted to Dubai
Kabul regime is accusing the
The ineffectiveness of the using the Kabul Bank and direct
US and Pakistan for the current
Afghan Peace Process in flights with millions of dollars
predicament. It would be
ensuring desired peace can be in cash. Soldiers were fighting
factually incorrect to put the
attributed to multiple reasons. the Taliban with no supplies
blame of present imbroglio in
A bulk of the two decade war and resources, while the Kabul
Afghanistan on Pakistan due to
was spent in fighting and elite was enjoying the luxuries
the fact that after Afghanistan,
ignoring Pakistan’s repeated in their Dubai villas. War has
Pakistan was the only country
advice for an all-inclusive served as an enormously
that had suffered the most
political settlement. Apart from

profitable enterprise for them
and all this is well documented.
Ashraf Ghani’s slogan was that
he was going to sideline all
these corrupt warlords and
make a corruption free
Afghanistan. However, he
utterly failed to deliver on his
slogan and could not raise an
army that could fight as a
cohesive force. In the end, he
had to rely on warlords. He
placed mostly inept individuals
at the helms of affairs of
important institutions like the
NDS. An institution formed for
protecting Afghan security
interests but later on turned into
an anti-Pakistan entity with
close ties to intelligence
agencies that are hostile to
Pakistan’s peace and progress.
India has emerged as the
biggest spoiler of peace efforts
in Afghanistan. A stable
Afghanistan will serve
Pakistan’s core geo-economics
interests, like railroad. This
connectivity will extend CPEC
to Central Asia and Pakistan
will finally be able to exploit
the full potential of the strategic
Gwadar port.
The collapse of Kabul’s regime
is imminent. President Ghani is
acting without any real
authority in the country.
Recently, he replaced top
military officials with Pashtuns
from Tajikistan, which also
contributed to the failure of the
government forces against the
Taliban.
The Taliban are making peace
deals with local community
leaders who are handing over
the provincial capitals. Instead
of the Kabul Regime’s
negotiation team in Doha
representing them, they are
representing themselves and
their local communities at their
respective doorsteps. The
Tajiks, Uzbeksand Hazaras
want their own fiefdoms in
Afghanistan and so as long as
they have that, they are happy.
Tribal elders are switching
sides, as dictated by their
interests and the interests of
their respective tribes.
The US gave Ashraf Ghani two
years, 2019 to 1920, to reach a
peace deal with the Taliban.
Nevertheless, since he was in a
position of strength due to the
presence of NATO forces, he
continued to drag his feet and
gambled on the premise that US
will not actually leave. To his
utter surprise, the remains of
the US and NATO forces would
be off Afghan soil in a month’s
time. The balance of power has
now shifted and with every
31
passing day, his leverage is
diminishing at a rapid rate.
One may continue to throw
blame on the US, Pakistan,
Iran, Soviets, or elsewhere, but
this rhetoric doesn’t change the
fact that the mess in
Afghanistan is Afghan-led and
Afghan-owned. Among other
things, for example, no one
forced Ghani to delay the
prisoner exchange for six
months. By now, the talks
would have concluded and the
deal would have taken some
mutually acceptable shape. He
gambled and the Afghans lost a
close chance of peace. Only if
Afghans themselves had kept
their falsely inflated egos aside
and passionately thought better
of their war torn country and its
protractedly displaced people,
this mess would have been
resolved decades ago.
Pakistan, due to it religious,
ethnic and social linkages with
Afghanistan, is rightly
concerned about recently
increased levels of violence and
chaos and for obvious reasons.
Nevertheless, it has no
favorites, as very candidly
expressed by its political as
well as military leadership
repeatedly. It is totally and
exclusively up to the Afghans
to decide what path they want
 32

to tread. Peace in Afghanistan extend full support to Afghans, The writer is a Peshawar based
is a collective responsibility while remaining fully journalist.
and hence the international cognizant of spoilers of peace
community must continue to in Afghanistan.

Can a disaster in Afghanistan be averted?
Sultan Barakat, Aljazeera
Back in April 2021, I argued
that a full-scale disaster in the
form of a protracted civil war in
Afghanistan could still be
averted, but it would have
required two things from the
Taliban.
First, the group had to opt for a
reasonable response to the
surprise announcement by US
President Joe Biden of a
complete, unconditional
withdrawal of all US troops
from Afghanistan by
September 11. At the time, the
Taliban viewed this as a breach
of the February 2020 Doha
Agreement between the group
and the US.
Afghanistan: Mapping the
advance of the Taliban
Second, the Taliban had to offer
credible assurances that its
return to Kabul would lead to a
reduction in violence and
would not erode civil rights, in
particular those of women and
minority groups.
Then and now, it remains clear
that the high level of
polarisation among Afghans
and fear of what the Taliban did
during its short rule between
1996 and 2001, as well as the
33
strong opposition in the region cannot bring peace and
to an Islamic emirate, risk prosperity to the country today.
sparking a conflict if the group
The Taliban put to the test
tries to walk into the capital by
force – particularly now that However, the irony of the
President Ashraf Ghani has Taliban spreading its control so
accepted his resignation may be widely and so quickly is that its
imminent. ability to control, secure and,
most importantly, supply those
The speed of the Taliban’s
areas will be tested for the first
advance and the lack of
time. The overnight
resistance faced so far have
transformation in the
come as a surprise to all sides
movement’s responsibilities is
including the Taliban leaders
huge – from a guerrilla force
themselves. But this should not
reliant on what supplies can be
blind anyone to the fact that
offered to it by local
throughout modern history, no
communities it is turning into
single political, religious or
an authority in control of
ethnic group, regardless of its
complex urban spaces.
size, has been able to enjoy full
hegemony and legitimacy The first and most important
across a piece of land without requirement across the many
reaching a political settlement provinces that have fallen to the
with all other groups. Taliban, particularly those
where its fighters faced no
The Taliban has made
resistance whatsoever such as
electrifying advances precisely
Paktika, is an acceptable degree
because it has realised that it
of stability, justice and dignity.
cannot hold and maintain
Disruption to people’s lives by
control based on an exclusive
Taliban fighters, driving them
narrative of Pashtun
out of their villages, looting
nationalism. Rather, local
homes and conducting
alliances are being made in the
summary executions will haunt
north with local Uzbek, Tajik,
the movement and fuel years of
and other communities.
conflict to come.
Military force was never a
solution in Afghanistan and

The desire to represent the
Afghan people comes with the
responsibility to govern and
hold a nation together. This is
recognised on some level by
Taliban leaders, who have
issued declarations of amnesty
and ordered fighters to protect
community assets and refrain
from acts of vengeance in the
recently captured districts.
In July 2019, the Taliban jointly
declared at the Intra-Afghan
Conference in Doha that it is of
utmost importance to avoid
civilian casualties, support the
displaced, and protect public
infrastructure. But, as
numerous local reports are
emerging, the movement is
struggling to prevent cases of
abuse and control the behaviour
of young fighters spurred on by
the spoils of urban centres.
If the rhetoric of peace from the
Taliban political leadership
continues to be matched with
the reality of atrocities on the
ground, the 2020 agreement
with the US and any degree of
validity it holds will be
threatened.
This has already forced the
hand of the US to act in support
of the Afghan government and
to join in airstrikes against the
Taliban. The US is deploying
thousands of troops to
Afghanistan to protect
American citizens, as is the
United Kingdom, Canada, and
Germany. Even Qatar, as the
host of the Taliban Political
Commission and the intra-
Afghan negotiations, will come
under greater pressure
domestically and
internationally if those scenes
of violence continue to be aired.
A chaotic collapse of
Afghanistan’s existing
institutions, including the army,
police and civil service will
leave the Taliban presiding
over a nightmare scenario akin
to Iraq and Syria. The group
will find that many
intellectuals, investors, and
people with technical capacities
have long left the country to
Turkey, the UAE, Pakistan, and
India in addition to the
thousands of qualified men and
women who are being
evacuated by the NATO
nations. The Taliban must
remember that under such a
scenario it will remain under
the thumb of Pakistan in
perpetuity, trapped in the
shadow of its politics with
India.
What should the Taliban do
to avert a disaster?
The Taliban’s rapid advance
has ousted some of
34
Afghanistan’s traditional
warlords: Abdul Rashid
Dostum has fled to Uzbekistan,
Atta Mohammad Noor is
reported to have left the
country, and Ismail Khan is
under house arrest in Herat.
With them out of the political
scene, the many fragmented
factions in Kabul are now no
longer talking in the same
disparate tones. They are doing
their best to cast aside their
differences and present a united
front.
The Taliban should show
humility in victory and listen
carefully to what settlement is
being offered by the
government in the interest of
avoiding bloodshed in Kabul, a
city of 6 million civilians.
Given all that was said earlier,
there is no escaping forming a
transitional administration that
could see the country through
the coming dark days.
Any transitional government
must be inclusive, respecting all
sides, and seeing beyond the
current presidency. Such an
inclusive structure is necessary
to legitimise the decision of any
consultative council on
selecting the format and
leadership of a new executive
governing authority.
 35

The Taliban must protect all

state institutions, including the
civil service, and do its very
best to ensure they continue to
function. This is a major lesson
from Iraq and Syria: Any
transitional arrangement should
not undo the armed forces or
civil service.

Finally, to be able to meet the

salary bill for the civil service,
including health and education,
the Taliban must improve its
relationship with the
international community of
donors. It could begin to do so
by protecting their missions
inside the country and making
sure it follows a zero-tolerance
policy against all forms of
human rights abuses, in
particular those directed against
women and girls. And that is
not because the West cares
more about those issues, but
because Islam is based on those
principles.

Sultan Barakat is the Director

of the Centre for Conflict and
Humanitarian Studies at the
Doha Institute and Honorary
Professor of Politics at the
University of York