Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Analisis - Sensitivitas - Air Bersih-50%tjitjo
Analisis - Sensitivitas - Air Bersih-50%tjitjo
Total
13,987
14,686
15,420
16,191
17,001
17,766
18,566
19,401
20,274
21,186
22,034
22,915
23,832
24,785
25,777
26,550
27,346
28,167
29,012
29,882
30,779
31,702
32,653
33,633
34,641
35,681
36,751
37,854
38,989
40,159
41,364
42,605
43,883
45,199
46,555
47,952
49,390
50,872
52,398
53,970
55,589
57,257
58,975
60,744
62,566
64,443
66,377
68,368
70,419
72,532
INDIKATOR EKONOMI & FINANSIAL
Indikator Ekonomi Indonesia
Tahun Bulan Inflasi SBI JIBOR/IndONIA
Januari 4.14% 0.00%
Februari 4.42% 0.00%
Maret 4.45% 0.00%
April 3.60% 5.50% 0.00%
Mei 3.33% 5.50% 0.00%
Juni 3.45% 5.25% 0.00%
2016
Juli 3.21% 5.25% 0.00%
Agustus 2.79% 5.25% 0.00%
September 3.07% 5.00% 0.00%
Oktober 3.31% 4.75% 0.00%
Nopember 3.58% 4.75% 0.00%
Desember 3.02% 4.75% 0.00%
Januari 3.49% 4.75% 6.94%
Februari 3.83% 4.75% 6.83%
Maret 3.61% 4.75% 6.86%
April 4.17% 4.75% 6.85%
Mei 4.33% 4.75% 6.94%
Juni 4.37% 4.75% 6.89%
2017
Juli 3.88% 4.75% 6.94%
Agustus 3.82% 4.50% 6.23%
September 3.72% 4.25% 5.38%
Oktober 3.58% 4.25% 5.19%
Nopember 3.30% 4.25% 5.20%
Desember 3.61% 4.25% 5.38%
Januari 3.25% 4.25% 3.87%
Februari 3.18% 4.25% 3.87%
Maret 3.40% 4.25% 3.99%
April 3.41% 4.25% 4.03%
Mei 3.23% 4.50% 4.02%
Juni 3.12% 5.25% 4.45%
2018
Juli 3.18% 5.25% 4.75%
Agustus 3.20% 5.50% 5.19%
September 2.88% 5.75% 5.39%
Oktober 3.16% 5.75% 5.61%
Nopember 3.23% 6.00% 5.74%
Desember 3.13% 6.00% 5.80%
Januari 2.82% 6.00% 5.86%
Februari 2.57% 6.00% 5.86%
Maret 2.48% 6.00% 5.88%
April 2.83% 6.00% 5.94%
Mei 3.32% 6.00% 5.88%
Juni 3.28% 6.00% 5.86%
2019
2019
Juli 3.32% 5.75% 5.75%
Agustus 3.49% 5.50% 5.54%
September 3.39% 5.25% 5.24%
Oktober 3.13% 5.00% 5.04%
Nopember 3.00% 5.00% 4.83%
Desember 2.72% 5.00% 4.83%
Januari 2.68% 5.00% 4.81%
Februari 2.98% 4.75% 4.75%
Maret 2.96% 4.50% 4.49%
April 2.67% 4.50% 4.31%
Mei 2.19% 4.50% 4.33%
Juni 1.96% 4.25% 4.22%
2020
Juli 1.54% 4.00% 4.64%
Agustus 1.32% 4.00% 3.31%
September 1.42% 4.00% 3.29%
Oktober 1.44% 4.00% 3.29%
Nopember 1.59% 3.75% 3.20%
Desember 1.68% 3.75% 3.04%
MEAN 3.12% 4.92% 4.11%
FUNGSI PROB. 3.12% 4.92% 4.11%
4.1100%
VARIABEL RISIKO!!
Rp 344,447,087,400.00
Biaya investasi
No. ITEM BESARAN KETERANGAN
INVESTASI
1 Konstruksi SPAM Rp344,448,000,000.00 total biaya
2 Pembebasan Lahan Rp0.00 termasuk pematangan lahan
3 Feasibility Study Rp2,583,360,000.00 0,75% biaya konstruksi
4 Detail Engineering Design Rp4,305,600,000.00 1,25% biaya konstruksi
5 Supervisory Services Rp3,444,480,000.00 1% biaya konstruksi
6 Contigency dan Overhead Rp25,833,600,000.00 7,5% biaya konstruksi
TOTAL KONSTRUKSI & PERALATAN Rp378,032,000,000.00
TOTAL INVESTASI Rp380,616,000,000.00
7 Lain-lain
- Depresiasi 4.00% dari total investasi
- Depresiasi per tahun Rp 14,615,654,400.00
- PPN 0.1
PERHITUNGAN FINANSIAL
9 Equity & Debt Ratio 70/30
- Equity Rp266,432,000,000.00 0.7
- Debt Rp114,185,000,000.00 0.3
10 Periode pengembalian utang 10 tahun
11 Kenaikan tarif tiap 2 tahun sesuai inflasi
12 Penghasilan lain 3.40% data PDAM 2019 dan 2020
13 Nilai sisa Rp 15,224,640,000.00 4% dari total investasi
14 Pajak Penghasilan (PPh) 0.25
15 Pajak Bumi dan Bangunan 0.01
16 Biaya Pendanaan 0.0125
JADWAL PELAKSANAAN
17 Feasibility Studi Rp2,583,360,000.00 2019
COV 5.0% VARIABEL RISIKO!!!
Mean Rp2,583,360,000.00 2583360000
Standar deviasi Rp129,168,000.00
18 Pembebasan dan Pematangan Lahan Rp0.00 2020
COV 20.00%
Mean Rp0.00
Standar deviasi Rp0.00
19 Konstruksi dan Fasilitas SPAM-1 Rp 151,212,800,000.00 2021
COV 10% VARIABEL RISIKO!!!
Mean Rp151,212,800,000.00 151212800000
Standar deviasi Rp15,121,280,000.00
20 Konstruksi dan Fasilitas SPAM-2 Rp226,819,200,000.00 2022
COV 10% VARIABEL RISIKO!!!
Mean Rp226,819,200,000.00 226819200000
Standar deviasi Rp22,681,920,000.00
21 Tahu Awal Operasi 2022
PREDIKSI JUMLAH PELANGGAN TARIF
Tahun N (JUMLAH PELANGGAN
RT NIAGA K+S SOSIAL NIAGA INDUSTRI PEMERINTAH RT NIAGA K+S SOSIAL NIAGA INDUSTRI PEMERINTAH RT NIAGA K+S
2020 FS/DED 10,520 3,136 98 105 3 128 IDR - IDR - IDR - IDR - IDR - IDR - IDR - IDR -
2021 T-1 11,046 3,293 103 110 3 135 IDR - IDR - IDR - IDR - IDR - IDR - IDR - IDR -
2022 T-2 11,598 3,457 108 116 3 142 IDR 5,529.68 IDR 12,868.08 IDR 3,121.51 IDR 21,065.92 IDR 11,461.28 IDR 10,393.13 Rp 10,957.80 Rp 6,580.21
2023 3 12,178 3,630 113 121 3 149 IDR 5,529.68 IDR 12,868.08 IDR 3,121.51 IDR 21,065.92 IDR 11,461.28 IDR 10,393.13 Rp 11,505.79 Rp 6,909.51
2024 4 12,787 3,812 119 127 3 156 IDR 5,702.20 IDR 13,269.56 IDR 3,218.90 IDR 21,723.18 IDR 11,818.87 IDR 10,717.39 Rp 12,458.10 Rp 7,482.32
2025 5 13,362 3,983 124 133 3 163 IDR 5,702.20 IDR 13,269.56 IDR 3,218.90 IDR 21,723.18 IDR 11,818.87 IDR 10,717.39 Rp 13,018.31 Rp 7,817.97
2026 6 13,964 4,162 130 139 3 170 IDR 5,880.11 IDR 13,683.57 IDR 3,319.33 IDR 22,400.94 IDR 12,187.62 IDR 11,051.78 Rp 14,029.30 Rp 8,424.20
2027 7 14,592 4,350 135 145 3 178 IDR 5,880.11 IDR 13,683.57 IDR 3,319.33 IDR 22,400.94 IDR 12,187.62 IDR 11,051.78 Rp 14,660.23 Rp 8,804.72
2028 8 15,249 4,545 142 152 3 186 IDR 6,063.57 IDR 14,110.50 IDR 3,422.89 IDR 23,099.85 IDR 12,567.88 IDR 11,396.59 Rp 15,798.30 Rp 9,486.44
2029 9 15,935 4,750 148 159 4 194 IDR 6,063.57 IDR 14,110.50 IDR 3,422.89 IDR 23,099.85 IDR 12,567.88 IDR 11,396.59 Rp 16,509.01 Rp 9,914.32
2030 10 16,572 4,940 154 165 4 202 IDR 6,252.76 IDR 14,550.75 IDR 3,529.69 IDR 23,820.57 IDR 12,959.99 IDR 11,752.16 Rp 17,704.63 Rp 10,632.59
2031 11 17,235 5,138 160 172 4 210 IDR 6,252.76 IDR 14,550.75 IDR 3,529.69 IDR 23,820.57 IDR 12,959.99 IDR 11,752.16 Rp 18,412.94 Rp 11,058.76
2032 12 17,925 5,343 166 178 4 219 IDR 6,447.84 IDR 15,004.73 IDR 3,639.81 IDR 24,563.77 IDR 13,364.35 IDR 12,118.83 Rp 19,747.58 Rp 11,858.79
2033 13 18,642 5,557 173 186 4 227 IDR 6,447.84 IDR 15,004.73 IDR 3,639.81 IDR 24,563.77 IDR 13,364.35 IDR 12,118.83 Rp 20,537.49 Rp 12,333.76
2034 14 19,387 5,779 180 193 4 236 IDR 6,649.01 IDR 15,472.88 IDR 3,753.37 IDR 25,330.16 IDR 13,781.31 IDR 12,496.94 Rp 22,024.61 Rp 13,226.68
2035 15 19,969 5,952 185 199 4 243 IDR 6,649.01 IDR 15,472.88 IDR 3,753.37 IDR 25,330.16 IDR 13,781.31 IDR 12,496.94 Rp 22,685.80 Rp 13,622.63
2036 16 20,568 6,131 191 205 5 251 IDR 6,856.46 IDR 15,955.63 IDR 3,870.48 IDR 26,120.46 IDR 14,211.29 IDR 12,886.84 Rp 24,095.32 Rp 14,470.12
2037 17 21,185 6,315 196 211 5 258 IDR 6,856.46 IDR 15,955.63 IDR 3,870.48 IDR 26,120.46 IDR 14,211.29 IDR 12,886.84 Rp 24,818.13 Rp 14,904.39
2038 18 21,820 6,504 202 217 5 266 IDR 7,070.39 IDR 16,453.45 IDR 3,991.24 IDR 26,935.42 IDR 14,654.68 IDR 13,288.91 Rp 26,359.57 Rp 15,829.40
2039 19 22,475 6,699 208 224 5 274 IDR 7,070.39 IDR 16,453.45 IDR 3,991.24 IDR 26,935.42 IDR 14,654.68 IDR 13,288.91 Rp 27,150.84 Rp 16,303.99
2040 20 23,149 6,900 215 230 5 282 IDR 7,290.98 IDR 16,966.80 IDR 4,115.77 IDR 27,775.80 IDR 15,111.91 IDR 13,703.53 Rp 28,837.57 Rp 17,317.13
2041 21 23,844 7,107 221 237 5 291 IDR 7,290.98 IDR 16,966.80 IDR 4,115.77 IDR 27,775.80 IDR 15,111.91 IDR 13,703.53 Rp 29,703.36 Rp 17,836.64
2042 22 24,559 7,320 228 244 5 299 IDR 7,518.46 IDR 17,496.16 IDR 4,244.18 IDR 28,642.41 IDR 15,583.40 IDR 14,131.08 Rp 31,548.59 Rp 18,944.39
2043 23 25,296 7,540 234 252 5 308 IDR 7,518.46 IDR 17,496.16 IDR 4,244.18 IDR 28,642.41 IDR 15,583.40 IDR 14,131.08 Rp 32,495.35 Rp 19,513.76
2044 24 26,055 7,766 241 259 6 318 IDR 7,753.04 IDR 18,042.04 IDR 4,376.60 IDR 29,536.05 IDR 16,069.60 IDR 14,571.97 Rp 34,514.64 Rp 20,725.73
2045 25 26,836 7,999 249 267 6 327 IDR 7,753.04 IDR 18,042.04 IDR 4,376.60 IDR 29,536.05 IDR 16,069.60 IDR 14,571.97 Rp 35,549.22 Rp 21,347.56
PENDAPATAN (Juta Rp.)
(JUMLAH PELANGGAN X PENGGUNAAN AIR X TARIF) PENDAPATAN
LAINNYA TOTAL
SOSIAL NIAGA INDUSTRI PEMERINTAH
IDR - IDR - IDR - IDR - IDR - IDR -
IDR - IDR - IDR - IDR - IDR - IDR -
Rp 126.85 Rp 1,103.92 Rp 6.98 Rp 1,446.01 Rp 687.54 Rp 20,909.32
Rp 132.73 Rp 1,151.50 Rp 6.98 Rp 1,517.29 Rp 721.61 Rp 21,945.40
Rp 144.13 Rp 1,246.31 Rp 7.20 Rp 1,638.14 Rp 781.19 Rp 23,757.39
Rp 150.19 Rp 1,305.19 Rp 7.20 Rp 1,711.65 Rp 816.36 Rp 24,826.86
Rp 162.37 Rp 1,406.63 Rp 7.42 Rp 1,840.85 Rp 879.61 Rp 26,750.37
Rp 168.61 Rp 1,467.35 Rp 7.42 Rp 1,927.48 Rp 919.22 Rp 27,955.04
Rp 182.89 Rp 1,586.17 Rp 7.65 Rp 2,076.95 Rp 990.71 Rp 30,129.11
Rp 190.62 Rp 1,659.22 Rp 10.21 Rp 2,166.28 Rp 1,035.29 Rp 31,484.94
Rp 204.54 Rp 1,775.56 Rp 10.52 Rp 2,325.98 Rp 1,110.23 Rp 33,764.05
Rp 212.50 Rp 1,850.88 Rp 10.52 Rp 2,418.10 Rp 1,154.77 Rp 35,118.48
Rp 227.35 Rp 1,975.21 Rp 10.85 Rp 2,600.41 Rp 1,238.29 Rp 37,658.48
Rp 236.94 Rp 2,063.98 Rp 10.85 Rp 2,695.41 Rp 1,287.87 Rp 39,166.29
Rp 254.22 Rp 2,208.48 Rp 11.19 Rp 2,889.70 Rp 1,380.91 Rp 41,995.79
Rp 261.28 Rp 2,277.14 Rp 11.19 Rp 2,975.41 Rp 1,422.34 Rp 43,255.78
Rp 278.17 Rp 2,418.98 Rp 14.42 Rp 3,169.26 Rp 1,511.17 Rp 45,957.45
Rp 285.45 Rp 2,489.78 Rp 14.42 Rp 3,257.64 Rp 1,556.17 Rp 47,326.00
Rp 303.37 Rp 2,640.47 Rp 14.87 Rp 3,463.45 Rp 1,652.78 Rp 50,263.90
Rp 312.38 Rp 2,725.65 Rp 14.87 Rp 3,567.61 Rp 1,702.56 Rp 51,777.90
Rp 332.97 Rp 2,885.98 Rp 15.34 Rp 3,786.33 Rp 1,807.96 Rp 54,983.27
Rp 342.26 Rp 2,973.81 Rp 15.34 Rp 3,907.17 Rp 1,862.47 Rp 56,641.05
Rp 364.12 Rp 3,157.17 Rp 15.82 Rp 4,139.84 Rp 1,977.78 Rp 60,147.71
Rp 373.70 Rp 3,260.68 Rp 15.82 Rp 4,264.45 Rp 2,037.41 Rp 61,961.16
Rp 396.88 Rp 3,455.81 Rp 19.57 Rp 4,540.28 Rp 2,164.20 Rp 65,817.12
Rp 410.06 Rp 3,562.56 Rp 19.57 Rp 4,668.78 Rp 2,228.96 Rp 67,786.71
variabel input -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10%
1 Jml Pelanggan RT (43,825.22) (25,793.29) (7,763.51) 10,264.82 28,297.57 46,328.05
2 Jml Pelanggan Niaga SK (15,009.72) (4,184.56) 6,641.82 17,471.53 28,297.57 39,125.23
3 Jml Pelanggan Sos. 27,467.50 27,675.40 27,881.88 28,090.81 28,297.57 28,505.28
4 Jml Pelanggan Niaga 21,080.89 22,881.57 24,691.57 26,503.22 28,297.57 30,108.32
5 Jml Pelanggan Industri 28,262.63 28,270.36 28,280.65 28,290.06 28,297.57 28,304.51
6 Jml Pelanggan Pem. 18,846.08 21,206.82 23,588.47 25,941.41 28,297.57 30,667.57
7 Inflasi 5,840.12 11,241.52 16,931.85 22,557.76 28,297.57 34,153.63
8 SBI 117,243.00 92,107.56 68,642.22 47,592.66 28,297.57 10,602.38
9 JIBOR 28,297.57 28,297.57 28,297.57 28,297.57 28,297.57 28,297.57
10 Biaya OM 51,770.49 45,902.26 40,034.03 34,165.80 28,297.57 22,429.35
11 FS/DED 28,297.57 28,297.57 28,297.57 28,297.57 28,297.57 28,297.57
12 Konst. Thn. 1 28,297.57 28,297.57 28,297.57 28,297.57 28,297.57 28,297.57
13 Konst. Tahun 2 28,297.57 28,297.57 28,297.57 28,297.57 28,297.57 28,297.57
300
J
J
200
K
K
100
J
J
0 J
-40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
I
-100 J
J
-200
K
NPV Variabel
K
100
J
J
0 J
-40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
I
-100 J
J
-200
Kota Pekanbaru
Variabel Input
SBI
Biaya OM
FS/DED
JIBOR
Jml Pelanggan Industri
Konst. Thn. 1
Konst. Tahun 2
Jml Pelanggan Sos.
Jml Pelanggan Niaga
30% 40% Jml Pelanggan Pem.
Inflasi
Jml Pelanggan Niaga SK
Jml Pelanggan RT
Konst. Thn. 1
Konst. Tahun 2
Jml Pelanggan Sos.
Jml Pelanggan Niaga
30% 40% Jml Pelanggan Pem.
Inflasi
Jml Pelanggan Niaga SK
Jml Pelanggan RT
Graph SPAM Kota Pekanbaru
Konst. Tahun 2
Konst. Thn. 1
FS/DED
Biaya OM
JIBOR
SBI
Inflasi
Jml Pelanggan Pem.
Jml Pelanggan Industri
Jml Pelanggan Niaga
Jml Pelanggan Sos.
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Jml Pelanggan Niaga SK
Jml Pelanggan RT
ut variabel