PROBABILITY AND PROBABILITY

DISTRIBUTIONS
Introduction:

Probability is the number of ways of achieving success, the total number of
possible outcomes.

For example, the probability of flipping a coin and it being heads is ½, because
there is 1 way of getting a head and the total number of possible outcomes is 2
(a head or tail).

Terminologies:

Equally Likely : The outcomes of a trial are said to be equally likely if any one
of them cannot be expected to occur in preference to another.
For ex. In tossing an unbiased coin , the outcomes
Head or Tail are equally likely.

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Mutually Exclusive : The outcomes of a trial are said to be mutually
exclusive , if the occurrence of one of them precludes the occurrence of all
other outcomes.
In the experiment of throw of a die, the occurrence of number 1 uppermost
face will exclude automatically the occurrence of numbers 2,3,4,5 and 6.
In tossing a coin, events Heads or Tail are mutually exclusive.

Exhaustive : All possible outcomes of a trial from exhaustive set of cases or
events.
In throw of a die , appearance of numbers 1,2,3,4,5,6 constitute exhaustive set
of events.
In throw of a coin , the events Head and Tail constitute exhaustive set of events.

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Sample Space : A set of all possible outcomes of a trial which are exhaustive is
called a sample space.
In a throw of a two coin, sample space4 consists of following outcomes:
(T ,T), (T,H),(H,T) and (H,H) which forms a sample space.

Independent : Events A and B are said to be independent if happening of A
has nothing to do with the happening of B and vice-a-versa.
If the occurrence of event B is affected by occurrence of event A, then such
events are Dependent events.

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DISTRIBUTIONS
Definition of Probability and Related Examples :
• Classical or ‘a priori’ probability:
If a trial results in n exhaustive cases which are mutually exclusive and equally likely
and out of which m are favorable to the happening of event A, then the probability P
of the happening of event A also denoted by P(A) is given by ,
m
P ( A) = =p
n
• Statistical or Empirical Definition:
If a trial be repeated for a large number of times, say n , under the same conditions
and certain event A occurs p × n occasions,
then, the probability of happening of event A is given by
p×n
P ( A) = lim =p
n →∞ n

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 PROBABILITY AND PROBABILITY
DISTRIBUTIONS
Examples:
1. If 3 and 20 tubes are defective and 4 of them are randomly chosen for inspection (i.e.
each tube has the same chance of being selected), then what is the probability that only
one of the defective tubes will be included? (May 2010)
Solution:
4 tubes can be selected out of 20 in 20 C 4 ways.

20 ⋅19 ⋅18 ⋅17

∴ n = 20C4 = = 4845
1⋅ 2 ⋅ 3 ⋅ 4

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DISTRIBUTIONS
2. Three coins are tossed simultaneously. Find the probability of getting at least 2 Heads.
Solution :
Sample space for the given experiment is ,
{ (H,H,H), (H,H,T),(H,T,H),(T,H,H),
(H,T,T),(T,T,H),(T,H,T), (T,T,T) }
So n(S) = 8
Let A be the event of getting at least 2 Heads.
So n(A) = 4
4 1
∴ p( A) = =
8 2

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 PROBABILITY AND PROBABILITY
DISTRIBUTIONS
Probability Distribution:
Random Variable :
A variable whose value is a number determined by the out come of an experiment,
associated with a sample space is called random variable.
It is usually denoted by capital letter X or Y etc. If out comes are
xi , i = 0,1,2,........n then X ( xi )orf ( xi ) stands for the value at x = xi

Probability Function :
X is a random variable with values xi , i = 0,1,2,.......n and associated probabilities p ( xi ).
The set p with elements [ xi , p( xi )] is called the probability function or probability
distribution function of X. It is also called probability density function of x.

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 PROBABILITY AND PROBABILITY
DISTRIBUTIONS
Example:
1. A coin is tossed two times successively X is the random variable whose value for any
outcome is the number of heads obtained. Find the probability function of X.
Solution:

Sample space is S = {HH,TT,HT,TH} , n(S) = 4

1 1 1
x(X=0) = 1 , p ( X = 0 ) = p (TT ) = p (T ) p (T ) = ⋅ =
2 2 4

1 1 1
x(X=1) = 2 , p ( X = 1) = p ( HT ) + p (TH ) = + =
4 4 2

1
x(X=2) = 1 p ( X = 2 ) = p ( HH ) =
4

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DISTRIBUTIONS
Binomial Probability Distribution:
Consider an experiment or a trial which has n number of trials and only two outcomes, a
success or a failure with p as the probability of success and q as the probability of failure.
Then the Binomial probability distribution is denoted by B(n, p, r)
and is given by
B(n, p, r )= n cr p r q n− r
Mean and Variance of Binomial Distribution:

Mean = n ⋅ p
Variance = σ 2 = n ⋅ p ⋅ q
∴σ = n ⋅ p ⋅ q

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DISTRIBUTIONS
Example:
1. Probability o f Man aged 60 years will live for 70 years is 1/10. Find the probability of
5 men selected at random 2 will live for 70 years.
Solution:
Here 1 1 9
p= , q = 1− = , r = 2, n = 5.
10 10 10

P (2 men living for 70 years) = 5  1  2  9 3

c2     = 0.0729
 10   10 
2. On an average a box containing 10 articles is likely to have 2 defectives. If we consider
a consignment of 100 boxes, how many of them are expected to have three or less
defectives? (May 2016)
Solution:
2 1
p = Probability of box containing defective articles = 10 = 5 .

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 PROBABILITY AND PROBABILITY
DISTRIBUTIONS
4
q = Probability of non-defective items = .
5
Solution :
Probability of box containing three or less defective articles
= p ( r ≤ 3) = p (r = 0) + p ( r = 1) + p ( r = 2) + p( r = 3)
[r denotes the number of defective
0
items.]
10
1 4
p ( r = 0 ) = 10 C 0     = 0 . 1074
5 5
1 9
10 1 4
p ( r = 1) = C 1     = 0 . 2684
5 5
2 8
10 1 4
p ( r = 2 ) = C 2     = 0 . 302
5 5
3 7
10 1 4
p ( r = 2 ) = C 3     = 0 . 2013
5 5
p ( r ≤ 3 ) = 0 . 1074 + 0 . 2684 + 0 . 302 + 0 . 2013 = 0 . 8791
= 0.8791×100 = 87.91
Thus , 88 boxes are expected to contain three or less defectives.

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 PROBABILITY AND PROBABILITY
DISTRIBUTIONS
Poisson’s Probability Distribution :
When ‘p’ , the probability of success is very small and n , the number of trials is very large
and np is finite then we get another distribution called Poisson’s distribution.
The random variable X is said to follow the Poisson probability distribution if it has the
probability function: z r
e z
P( x = r ) = , r = 0,1,2,3
r
where P(x) = the probability of x successes , given λ
z = the expected number of successes ; z > 0
The Mean and Variance of the Poisson probability distribution are:

µ x = E ( X ) = z, σ x2 = E[( X − µ ) 2 ] = z

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 PROBABILITY AND PROBABILITY
DISTRIBUTIONS
Examples:
1. A manufacturer of cotter pins knows that 2% of his product is defective. If he sells
cotter pins in boxes of 100 pins and guarantees that not more than 5 pins will be
defective in a box, find the approximate probability that a box will fail to meet the
guaranteed quality. (May 2010)
Solution :
Here, n=100.
2
p the probability of defective pins = = 0.02
100
z = mean number of defective pins in a box
z = n ⋅ p = 100 × 0.02 = 2
Since p is small , we can use Poisson’s distribution.
e − z z r e −2 2 r
p (r ) = =
r! r!

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 PROBABILITY AND PROBABILITY
DISTRIBUTIONS
Probability that a box will fail to meet the guaranteed quality is

p ( r > 5) = 1 − p ( r ≤ 5)
5
e −2 2 r 5
2r
= 1− ∑ = 1 − e ∑ = 0.0165
−2

r =0 r! r = 0 r!

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 PROBABILITY AND PROBABILITY
DISTRIBUTIONS
Practice Questions:
1. On an average there are 2 printing mistakes on a page of a book. Using Poisson
distribution find the probability that a randomly selected page from the book has at
least one printing mistake. (Dec 2019)
2. In a factory manufacturing razor blades there is a small chance of 1/500 for any blade
to be defective. The blades are supplied in a packet of 10. Use Poisson distribution to
calculate the approximate number of packets containing atleast one defective blade in a
consignment of 10000 packets. (Dec 2018)
3. The number of breakdowns of a computer in a week is a Poisson variable with λ=
np=0.3What is the probability that the computer will operate :i) with no breakdown
and ii) atmost one breakdown in a week . (Dec 2017)
4. The incidence of a certain disease is such that on the average 20% of worker’s suffer from
it. If 10 workers are selected at random find the probability that
(i) Exactly 2 workers suffer from disease (ii) Not more than 2 workers suffer
(Nov 2014)
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 PROBABILITY AND PROBABILITY
DISTRIBUTIONS
Normal Distribution:
Normal Distribution is obtained as a limiting form of Binomial Distribution when ‘n’
the number of trials is very large and neither p nor q is very small. Most of the
modern statistical methods have been based on this distribution.
It is a Symmetrical, bell-shaped curve Also known as Gaussian Distribution and is
given by the formula − ( X − µ )2
1 2σ 2
f (X ) = e
σ 2∏

x
Normal Distribution Curve
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 PROBABILITY AND PROBABILITY
DISTRIBUTIONS
A normal distribution is a continuous probability distribution for a random variable, x.
The graph of a normal distribution is called the normal curve.
Properties of a Normal Distribution:
1. The mean, median, and mode are equal.
2. The normal curve is bell-shaped and symmetric about the mean.
3. The total area under the curve is equal to one.
4. The normal curve approaches, but never touches the x-axis as it extends farther and
farther away from the mean.
5. Between μ − σ and μ + σ (in the center of the curve), the graph curves downward.
The graph curves upward to the left of μ − σ and to the right of μ + σ. The points at
which the curve changes from curving upward to curving downward are called the
INFLECTION POINTS.

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 PROBABILITY AND PROBABILITY
DISTRIBUTIONS
Finding Areas Under the Standard Normal Curve:

Sketch the standard normal curve and shade the appropriate area under the curve.

To find the area to the left of z, find the area that corresponds to z in the Standard
Normal Table.

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 PROBABILITY AND PROBABILITY
DISTRIBUTIONS
Example:
1. In a certain examination test, 2000 students appeared in a subject of statistics. Average
marks obtained were 50% with standard deviation 5%. How many students do you
expect to obtain more than 60% of marks, supposing that marks are distributed
normally? (May 2010 , 2014, Dec. 2012)
Solution:
0 .6 − 0 .5
µ = 0 . 5 , σ = 0 . 05 , x = 0 . 6 , z 1 = = 2
0 . 05

A corresponding to z =2 is 0.4772
p ( x ≥ 6) = 0.5 − 0.4772 = 0.0228
Number of students expected to get more than 60%
= 0.0228 × 2000 = 46 students approximately.

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 PROBABILITY AND PROBABILITY
DISTRIBUTIONS
Example:
2. Suppose heights of students follows normal distribution with mean 190 cm and variance
80 square cm. In a school of 1000 , students how many would you expect to be above
200 an tall. (Dec.2016)
Solution: Let, x = Height of students
x → N (190,80)
Proportion of students having height above 200 cm.
= p ( x > 200 )
x−µ 200 − 190 
= p > 
 σ 80 
= p ( z > 1 . 1180 )
= 0 . 13136

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 PROBABILITY AND PROBABILITY
DISTRIBUTIONS
Number of students Proportion of students
out of 1000 = 1000× having height above
Having height above 200 cm
200 cm
= 1000 × 0 . 13136
= 131

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 PROBABILITY AND PROBABILITY
DISTRIBUTIONS
Practice Questions :
1. In a sample of 1000 cases the mean of a certain examination is 14 and standard deviation
is 2.5. Assuming the distribution to be normal. Find the number of students scoring
between 12 and 15.(Given z=0.4,A=0.1554, z=0.8 , A=0.2881) (May 2019)
2. The life time of an article has a normal distribution with mean 400 hours and standard
deviation 50 hours. Assuming normal distribution find the expected number of articles
out of 2000 whose lifetime lies between 335 hours to 465 hours (Given
z=1.3,A=0.4032) (May 2018)
3. In a certain examination 200 students appeared. Average marks obtained were 79 with
standard deviation 5.How many students in a class of 200 did not receive marks
between 75 and 82.
(Given z=0.8,A=0.2881,z=0.6 A=0.2257) (Dec. 2017)

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 PROBABILITY AND PROBABILITY
DISTRIBUTIONS
Multiple Choice Questions:
5 15
1. The mean and variance of binomial probability distribution are and respectively.
4 16
Probability of success in a single trial p is equal to,
1 15 1 3
a ) b ) c) d )
2 16 4 4
1
2. If X follows the binomial distribution with parameter n and p = 2 and
P (X=4) = P(X=5), then P(X=2) is equal to
7 11 10 9
1 1 10 1 1
7
a) C2   11
b) C2   c) C 2   9
d ) C2  
2  2 2 2

3. In a Poisson’s distribution if n=100,p=0.01,p(r=0) is given by ,

1 2 3 4
a ) b) c) d )
e e e e

4. In a Poisson’s Probability Distribution if 3p(r=4) = p(r=5) then p(r=6) is given by ,

e −12 (12 ) 6 e −18 (18 ) 6 e −12 (12 ) 6 e −12 (12 ) 6
a) b) a) a)
6! 6! 6! 6!
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 PROBABILITY AND PROBABILITY
DISTRIBUTIONS
5. X is normally distributed. The mean of is 15 and standard deviation 3. Given that
for is given by

a) 0.1587 b) 0.4231 c) 0.2231 d) 0.3413

6. In a normally distributed group of 450 students with mean 42 and standard deviation
8, the number of students scoring less than 48 marks is ,
(Given: Area corresponding to z=0.75 is 0.2734.)
a) 348 b)102 c)127 d)250

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