UNIVERSITY OF WINDSOR

Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering

Transportation and Traffic Engineering

(CIVL -365)

Assignment 6
Due: 11:59pm, Wednesday, July 7, 2021

Question 1:
The data file, CIVL-365 Tutorial 6_data.xlsx, contains the number of work trips during the
morning peak period (6:30 - 8:30 AM) and the three related factors for 10 traffic analysis zones
(TAZs) in a region in 2018. The factors are the number of households, the number of elderly
people, and the number of vehicles in TAZs. The work-trip generation model is developed using
a linear regression in the following form:

T i =β 0 +β 1 H i +β 2 Ei + β3 V i

where,
Ti = the number of work trips produced in zone i
Hi = the number of households in zone i
Ei = the number of elderly people in zone i
Vi = the number of vehicles in zone i
b0 = constant
b1, b2, b3 = parameters to be estimated from the observed date

The number of households in the region is forecasted to increase to 15,500 by the year 2031.
Furthermore, the number of elderly people is forecasted to double by the year 2031.

(a) Subjective assumptions for Hi, Ei, and Vi

If number of households increase the number of work trips will automatically increase,
therefore Hi will have an increasing effect in each TAZ zone.
If population of elderly people increases, then the percentage of work-related trips will
decrease in each TAZ zone.
If number of vehicles increases in each TAZ zone, that means more people have access to a
vehicle therefore, the number of trips will increase.
(b) Assume that the proportion of the number of households for each TAZ in the region in 2018
remains the same in 2031. Calculate the number of households in each TAZ in 2031. Show
your sample calculation.
(c) Assume that the proportion of the number of elderly people for each TAZ in the region in
2018 remains the same in 2031. Calculate the number of elderly people in each TAZ in
2031. Show your sample calculation.
(d) Assume that the average number of vehicles per household in the region is assumed to
remain the same over time. Calculate the number of vehicles for each TAZ in 2031. Show
your sample calculation.
(e) Estimate the parameters b0, b1, b2 and b3 of the work-trip generation model as described in
the above equation using the observed 2018 data. Use the Regression tool of the Data
Analysis Add-Ins component of MS Excel to perform the estimation. Show the print-out of
results in Excel. Comment on the goodness-of-fit of the estimated model and statistical
significance of the parameters. Show the equation of the work-trip generation model with
the estimated parameters.
(f) As assumed in part (a) the coefficients for number of households and number of people are
positive therefore the number of trips will increase. As per coefficient for number of elderly
people is negative meaning the number of work trips will reduce.
Sample Calculation T (trips 2023) = 599.03 + 0.3144(2104) +(-5.767*198) +0.407(1873) = 880

(g) Predict the number of work trips produced in each TAZ in 2031 using the linear regression
model in part (e) and the 2031 forecasted data in parts (b)-(d). Show your sample
calculation.