A Force in Fragments - Reconstituting The Afghan National Army - Crisis Group

8/18/2021 A Force in Fragments: Reconstituting the Afghan National Army | Crisis Group
REPORT
190 / ASIA 12 MAY 2010
A Force in Fragments: Reconstituting the

Afghan National Army
Although the Afghan National Army could help stabilise the country, many challenges remain,
including lack of leadership, low literacy, and poor logistics capabilities.
BRIEFING
169 / ASIA 30 JUNE 2021
Pakistan: Shoring Up Afghanistan’s Peace Process

Pakistan’s stakes in Afghanistan are rising as U.S. and NATO troops prepare to leave. All-out war after the withdrawal
could push more Afghan refugees across the border and strengthen Pakistani militants. Islamabad should ratchet up
pressure on the Taliban to engage in peace talks.
Executive Summary
For nearly a decade, the Afghan military has been promoted as the cornerstone of
counterinsurgency in the country. Billed as a rare success story in a conflict with few bright spots,
the Afghan armed forces will undoubtedly prove pivotal to stabilising Afghanistan. Yet nine years
after the fall of the Taliban, there appears to be little agreement between the government of
President Hamid Karzai and its international backers on what kind of army the country needs, how
to build it or which elements of the insurgency the Afghan army should be fighting. Persistent
structural flaws meanwhile have undermined the military’s ability to operate independently.
Ethnic frictions and political factionalism among high-level players in the Ministry of Defence
https://www.crisisgroup.org/asia/south-asia/afghanistan/force-fragments-reconstituting-afghan-national-army 1/18
(MOD) and the general staff have also stunted the army’s growth. As a result, the army is a frag-
mented force, serving disparate interests, and far from attaining the unified national character
needed to confront numerous security threats. There is a strong need to strengthen civilian input
into military development, confront corruption and factionalism within the MOD and general staff
and to place sustainability of the armed forces at the forefront of Afghanistan’s national security
strategy.
What’s new? The fast-paced withdrawal of foreign troops amid stalled peace talks and rising
The Afghan National Army’s (ANA) strategic role in stabilising Afghanistan should not be
insurgent violence in Afghanistan threatens to undermine Pakistan’s efforts to facilitate the
underestimated. History has shown that failure to build a cohesive national army has often led to
Taliban’s return to Kabul through power-sharing arrangements that have international backing.
the diffusion of state force among disparate actors, hastening the collapse of governments in
Kabul. The push to build a unified national military in service of a civilian government has
frequently clashed with the tendency to create militias in a bid to insulate the state from internal
Why does it matter? Should the Afghan peace process continue to sputter or altogether fail,
and external threats. The tension between these polar conceptions has had far reaching
Islamabad’s relations with Kabul and Washington would sour. Further instability or Taliban gains
implications not only for internal security but also for Afghanistan’s relationships with external
in Afghanistan could embolden Pakistani militants aligned with their Afghan counterparts,
actors.
deepening insecurity in Pakistan, especially in its tribal areas along the Afghan border.
ANA development and deployment have dragged under these tensions as well as patchwork
What should be done? Islamabad should reach out to Kabul to reduce mistrust. Using the access
command structures, with little coordination between NATO’s International Security Assistance
and leverage provided by the Taliban leadership’s sanctuaries on its territory, Pakistan should
Force (ISAF), U.S. forces and the MOD in the early years of army development. The lack of
press the insurgents to reduce violence and negotiate a compromise on power-sharing
consensus between Kabul, Washington and Brussels has hobbled the Afghan military’s capacity to
arrangements with other Afghan stakeholders.
respond effectively to threats confronting the state. Failure to develop a sustainable,
comprehensive long-term defence posture could risk the army’s disintegration after the
BRIEFING
withdrawal of 169 / ASIA 30 JUNE

international 2021Similarly, tensions between the Afghan military’s historical
forces.
I. Overview
roots in Soviet-style over-centralised and top-heavy command and control structures and the
more fluid organisation of Western militaries has often pitted the U.S. and NATO against the very
Pakistan’s
Afghan officials
stakestheyin aseek
stabletoAfghanistan
influence and have
support.
never been higher as violence escalates in that
country and the peace process set in train in September 2020 remains largely deadlocked. An
unravelling
pressure on theAfghanistan could
Taliban to engage embolden
in peace talks. Pakistani militant groups, particularly the Pakistani
Despite
Taliban,billions of dollars
and threaten of international
yet another massive investment,
influx of Afghanarmyrefugees.
combat readiness
Islamabadhas hasbeen
been trying to
undermined by weakTaliban
persuade its Afghan recruitment
alliesand retention
to opt policies, negotiated
for a peacefully inadequatepolitical
logistics,settlement.
insufficientIts
training
failure
and equipment
in that endeavour andwould
inconsistent
strain itsleadership. International
ties with Washington andsupport
Kabul.forWiththethe
ANA must
clock therefore
ticking on thebe
targeted not
deadline just toward
for pulling increasing
out U.S. and NATO the quantity
troops from of troops but enhancing
Afghanistan, Pakistanthe quality
should of the fighting
redouble its
force. Given
efforts the slow
to convince thepace of economic
Taliban development
to scale back both their and the likelihood
attacks and theirof an eventual
aspirations to drawdown
reinstitute
of Western
their version resources,
of Islamicany assessment
governance of that
– so the future shape
the peace of themay
process army yet must also make fiscal as well
succeed.
as political sense. Although recent efforts to consolidate the training command structure under
the NATO Training Mission-Afghanistan (NTM-A) are encouraging, the U.S. emphasis on rapid
Pakistan has
expansion of supported
the army, in the
response
Afghan to peace
the process,
growing largely
insurgentbecause
threat,
itscould
long-time
strainTaliban
NTM-Aallyresources
can
use the
and outpace
talks the
as acapacity
road to power
of Afghan
withleaders
international
to managelegitimacy
an inherently
and theunwieldy
attendant system.
economic
support. It saw an opportunity to push for its preferred option – the Taliban’s inclusion in power-
sharing arrangements – when the Trump administration began pursuing a political settlement in
These shortcomings,
Afghanistan as the U.S. combined
preparedwith the international
to withdraw community’s
troops from the country.haphazard approach
Washington to
acknowledged
demobilisation
Islamabad’s roleand reintegration
in facilitating the(DR) has undermined
February the army’swith
2020 U.S. agreement professionalism andthe
the Taliban and capacity to
counter the peace
subsequent insurgency.
talks, The
also proliferation
known as theof weaponry provided
intra-Afghan by Kabul’s international backers
negotiations.
also feeds an illicit shadow economy, which further empowers patronage networks within the
military. Kabul powerbrokers are distributing the spoils of increased NATO spending on army
But in Januaryamong
development 2021, when
their constituents
President JoeinBiden
the officer
took over
corps,
thefuelling
U.S. administration,
ethnic and political
the talks were at
an impasse. The
factionalism within
Taliban
armycontinued
ranks. to rely on violence to strengthen their bargaining position;
Kabul, too, appeared unwilling to make substantive compromises. Biden’s decision, announced on
14 April
These 2021, to withdraw
developments are allall
theU.S.
moretroops by 11 September,
problematic in light ofeven absent
current a political
proposals settlement,and
to reintegrate has
tightened timelinesof
reconcile elements forthe
getting a peaceLimited
insurgency. processprogress
moving on
before the conflict
dissolution intensifies,
of illegal armedas appears
groups and
likely, in the withdrawal’s wake. (At the time of publication, the withdrawal looks set
reintegration of insurgents has given Kabul wide berth to continue its time-honoured tactic of to be
completed even earlier,
exploiting divisions by mid-July.)
to consolidate the government’s hold over power. Government-backed
reintegration programs have emerged as little more than distribution of patronage by a few
Afghan elites. With Taliban groups in control of large swathes of the country since around 2007,
Since
many intra-Afghan
Afghan military negotiations started
leaders believe in in
that Doha, Qatar on
the current 12 September
climate 2020, Pakistan’s
of high instability, military
the time is not
leadership and Prime Minister Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf government
right for negotiating with the insurgents, and that to do so would be from a position of weakness have
What’s
repeatedlynew? The fast-paced
emphasised withdrawal
that strongly
only a political ofsettlement
foreign troops amidconflict
stalledinpeace talks and Pledging
rising
and not strength. Most also reject proposals tocan end
reintegrate Afghanistan.
the Taliban into the ANA.
insurgent
support forviolence in Afghanistan
an Afghan-led threatens
peace process, they tohave
undermine Pakistan’s
also repeatedly efforts
denied to facilitate
backing the to
any party
Taliban’s return
the conflict. to Kabul
Yet the presencethrough
of thepower-sharing
Taliban’s top arrangements that have
military and political international
leadership backing.
on Pakistani
territory
Where the gives Islamabad
Afghan government a direct role,once
might and hence
have hada big stake,potential
limited in the intra-Afghan parley. guarantor
to be a legitimate The
sanctuary
of a broad Pakistan
negotiated gives the the
peace, Taliban
Karzai also reinforces
regime’s mistrust of
unrestrained Pakistani
pursuit intentions
of power amonghas
and wealth
Why
Afghan does it matter?
governing Should
and opposition the Afghan
circles. peace process continue to sputter or altogether fail,
bankrupted its credibility. Under these conditions, reconciliation and reintegration, as currently
conceived by Kabul and the U.S.-led coalition, does not represent a route to a permanent peaceful
settlement of the conflict. Nor is it an exit strategy. Rather, it is an invitation for the country to
deepening
As foreign insecurity
soldiers in Pakistan,
leave, and thethatespecially in
insurgents its tribal areas alongforce
the Afghan border.and install
descend further into the turmoil led the appear
Talibanbent on succour
to give using to gain power
to al-Qaeda and other violent
an Islamic system of government, Islamabad faces renewed pressure
extremists in the first place. The current debate on reconciliation with the Taliban also from Kabul and Washington
threatens
to convince the Taliban at the
to widen factionalism within the army. very least to reduce violence to ensure that negotiations continue.
What should
Pakistan’s bewith
clout done? the Islamabad
insurgents should reach out
has declined to Kabul
as they to reduce
continue to makemistrust.
militaryUsing
gainsthein access
and leverage provided
Afghanistan. by thehas
That influence Taliban
far fromleadership’s
dissipated, sanctuaries
however, on its the
since territory,
TalibanPakistan should
shura (leadership
press thestill
council) insurgents
operates to reduce violencehavens.
and negotiate acommanders
compromise in onAfghanistan
power-sharing
Greater civilian controlout of of Pakistani
and input into Taliban
the Afghan military is imperative. may dispute
The Afghan
arrangements
but with
will still follow other
that Afghan
leadership’sstakeholders.
instructions.
government must be encouraged to strengthen its Office of National Security Council (ONSC) and
to forge more dynamic institutional links between its members, the defence ministry and
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parliament. 169 / ASIA

Failure 30 JUNE 2021
to increase civilian input in shaping the army will heighten Afghanistan’s
I. Overview
historic dependence on external actors and make it a permanent pawn of regional and
“
Ainternational
failed peace process
power could spark all-out civil war in Afghanistan and a massive influx of
games.
Pakistan’s stakes in a stable Afghanistan
refugees into havePakistani
never beenterritory.
higher as violence
” escalates in that
country and the peace process set in train in September 2020 remains largely deadlocked. An
Kabul/Brussels,
unravelling 12 Maycould
2010 embolden Pakistani militant groups, particularly the Pakistani
pressure on theAfghanistan
Taliban
It is in Pakistan’s to engage
interest to in peace talks.
persuade, using pressure if need be, the Taliban shura to break the
Taliban, and threaten yet another massive influx of Afghan refugees. Islamabad has been trying to
logjam in the peace talks by reducing violence and moderating demands for Islamic, likely Sunni
persuade its Afghan Taliban allies to opt for a peacefully negotiated political settlement. Its failure
Deobandi,
Related governance. Indefinitely stalled negotiations would heighten tensions with Kabul and
Tags
in that endeavour would strain its ties with Washington and Kabul. With the clock ticking on the
might harm Islamabad’s relations with Washington – a grave concern for Pakistani military
deadline for pulling out U.S. and NATO troops from Afghanistan, Pakistan should redouble its
leaders. China, Pakistan’s closest foreign partner, also probably prefers that Islamabad work to
AFGHANISTAN
efforts to convince the Taliban to scale back both their attacks and their aspirations to reinstitute
produce a more stable outcome than a Taliban victory followed by an attempt at monopolistic rule.
their version of Islamic governance – so that the peace process may yet succeed.
A failed peace process could spark all-out civil war in Afghanistan and a massive influx of refugees
into Pakistani territory. Violence in Afghanistan would also spill over into Pakistan, destabilising
its conflict-prone western border as Taliban gains empower the Afghan insurgents’ Pakistani
Pakistan has supported the Afghan peace process, largely because its long-time Taliban ally can
Deobandi militant allies. In the worst-case scenario, a Taliban military takeover in Kabul, Pakistan
use the talks as a road to power with international legitimacy and the attendant economic
would face the dilemma of dealing with its ally heading a regime that would enjoy scant outside
support. It saw an opportunity to push for its preferred option – the Taliban’s inclusion in power-
backing and – crucially – very little financial aid.
sharing arrangements – when the Trump administration began pursuing a political settlement in
Afghanistan as the U.S. prepared to withdraw troops from the country. Washington acknowledged
Islamabad’s role in facilitating the February 2020 U.S. agreement with the Taliban and the
Once foreign troops leave Afghanistan, Western patience with the country’s unending conflict,
subsequent peace talks, also known as the intra-Afghan negotiations.
and its quarrelling factions, is likely to fade. Time is of the essence if Pakistan is to achieve the
objective of a political settlement that gives its Taliban allies a road to legitimate power sharing
and prevents the Afghan conflict from undermining security at home.
But in January 2021, when President Joe Biden took over the U.S. administration, the talks were at
an impasse. The Taliban continued to rely on violence to strengthen their bargaining position;
II Backdrop
II. Backdrop
14 April 2021, to withdraw all U.S. troops by 11 September, even absent a political settlement, has
tightened timelines for getting a peace process moving before the conflict intensifies, as appears
likely,
A. in the withdrawal’s
Pakistan’s wake. (At
Afghan the time of publication, the withdrawal looks set to be
Proxies
completed even earlier, by mid-July.)
Pakistan’s intervention in Afghanistan and links with the Taliban predate the movement’s 1996
establishment of its Islamic Emirate by several decades. Seeing itself as inheriting the British
Since intra-Afghan negotiations started in Doha, Qatar on 12 September 2020, Pakistan’s military
Indian empire’s western frontier, the so-called Durand Line, in 1947, Pakistan perceived
leadership and Prime Minister Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf government have
Afghanistan
What’s new? asThe
falling within its
fast-paced sphere of of
withdrawal influence. It retains
foreign troops amidthis view,peace
stalled often talks
looking
andatPledging
rising
repeatedly emphasised that only a political settlement can end conflict in Afghanistan.
Afghanistan as a “fifth province” that is dependent on a “benevolent big brother’s good-will”. 94
insurgent
support forviolence in Afghanistan
an Afghan-led threatens
peace process, tohave
they undermine Pakistan’s
also repeatedly efforts
denied to facilitate
backing the to
any party
Afghans
Taliban’s have
returnhistorically
to Kabul bristled at
through these Pakistani attitudes. The
power-sharing thatDurand Line, moreover, cuts
the conflict. Yet the presence of the Taliban’s top arrangements have
military and political international
leadership backing.
on Pakistani
through areas that the Pashtuns dominating successive Kabul governments have considered their
territory gives Islamabad a direct role, and hence a big stake, in the intra-Afghan parley. The
homeland. Afghan leaders have long refused to recognise the 2,430km line as the international
sanctuary Pakistan gives the Taliban also reinforces mistrust of Pakistani intentions among
border and it
staked claims to contiguous Pakistani Pashtun-majority 95 The dispute
Why
Afghandoes matter?
governing Should
and opposition the circles.
Afghan peace process continue toterritories.
sputter or altogether fail,
has marred bilateral relations.
deepening
As insecurity
foreign soldiers in Pakistan,
leave, especially in
and the insurgents its tribal
appear bentareas alongforce
on using the Afghan border.and install
to gain power
Since at least the 1970s, Pakistan has backed various Afghan Islamist factions as an antidote to
an Islamic system of government, Islamabad faces renewed pressure from Kabul and Washington
Pashtun nationalism. To gain vital U.S. support, Pakistan also provided safe haven and military
to convince the Taliban at the very least to reduce violence to ensure that negotiations continue.
support
What to various
should AfghanIslamabad
bewith
done? mujahideen factions during tothe so-called anti-Soviet jihad. Manyaccess
Pakistan’s clout the insurgents should reach
has declined out
as they Kabul to reduce
continue to makemistrust. Using
military gainsthe
in
mujahideen
and leverage leaders now
provided by hold
the prominent
Taliban positionssanctuaries
leadership’s in Afghan ruling
on its and opposition
territory, circles.
Pakistan should
Afghanistan. That influence has far from dissipated, however, since the Taliban shura (leadership
Though
press theearlier Afghan leaders
insurgents had sought
andtonegotiate
distance athemselves from Pakistan’s rivalry with
council) still operatestoout
reduce violence
of Pakistani havens. compromise
Taliban commanders onAfghanistan
in power-sharingmay dispute
India, opting for
arrangements neutrality
with other in thestakeholders.
Afghan 1965 and 1971 Indo-Pakistani wars, the Soviet-backed
but will still follow that leadership’s instructions.
communist government in Kabul drew closer to New Delhi as Islamabad sponsored Afghan
insurgents. 96
BRIEFING
169 / ASIA 30 JUNE 2021
I. Overview
“
APakistan:
failed peace
Following Shoring
process
the 1989 Sovietcould Upand
spark
withdrawal Afghanistan’s
all-out civilwar
the civil war Peace
inensued,
that Afghanistan and
Pakistani Process
a massiveininflux of
intervention
Pakistan’s
Afghanistan stakes in a stable
continued, Afghanistan
includingrefugees havePakistani
failed into
attempts never beenterritory.
at forging higher as violence
political escalates
” settlements among in that
warring
country
mujahideenand the peace
factions. process
Yet theacross set
pledges,in train in
suchand September
as after 2020
the Soviet remains
withdrawal, largely deadlocked.
to help should
Afghans An
findupa
could push more Afghan refugees the border strengthen Pakistani militants. Islamabad ratchet
unravelling
peaceful
pressure Afghanistan
onsolution were
the Taliban could
mere
to engage embolden
rhetoric, with Pakistani
Pakistan militant
choosing groups,
instead particularly
to backshurathe Pakistani
handpicked Afghan
It is in Pakistan’s interest to in peace talks.
persuade, using pressure if need be, the Taliban to break the
Taliban,
proxies. and threaten
Pakistan’s yet
preferred another
Afghan massive
partners influx
firstof Afghan
included refugees.
Gulbuddin Islamabad has
Hekmatyar’s been trying
predominantly to
persuade
Pashtun its Afghan
Hizb-e Taliban allies to opt for a peacefully negotiated political settlement. Its failure
Islami.
Deobandi, governance. Indefinitely stalled negotiations would heighten tensions with Kabul and
in that endeavour would strain its ties with Washington and Kabul. With the clock ticking on the
deadline for pulling out U.S. and NATO troops from Afghanistan, Pakistan should redouble its
efforts
As to convince
Hekmatyar the Taliban to scale back bothincluding
their attacks the and their aspirations to reinstitute
produce a morelost ground
stable to Afghan
outcome than aopponents,
Taliban victory followed Tajik-dominated
by an attempt at Jamiat-e Islami,
monopolistic rule.
theirPakistan
the version military
of Islamic governance
shifted its – so that
support to the
the peacePashtun
largely process Taliban.
may yet succeed.
97 Many present-day
Taliban leadersterritory.
into Pakistani and commanders
Violence in were students (talibs)
Afghanistan would alsoin madrasas
spill overrun byPakistan,
into two factions of the
destabilising
Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam,
its conflict-prone westerna Pakistani
border asDeobandi
Taliban gainsPashtun political
empower theparty,
Afghan ledinsurgents’
by Fazlur Rehman
Pakistani and
Pakistan
Samiul has
Haq. supported
Haq, who the
headed Afghan peace process, largely because its long-time Taliban ally can
Deobandi militant allies. In thethe Akora Khattak
worst-case madrasa
scenario, a Talibanin Khyber
militaryPakhtunkhwa province’s
takeover in Kabul, Pakistan
use the talks as a road
Nowshera hadto power withclose international legitimacy and the attendant economic 98
would facedistrict,
the dilemma particularly
of dealing with ties
its toheading
ally Taliban afounder
regimeMullah Mohammad
that would Omar.
enjoy scant outside
support.
Pakistan’s It saw an
Deobandi opportunity
madrasa to push for its preferred option – the Taliban’s inclusion in power-
backing and – crucially – verynetworks were also
little financial aid. a major source of Pakistani Pashtun recruits to
sharing arrangements
the Taliban cause. 99 – when the Trump administration began pursuing a political settlement in
Afghanistan as the U.S. prepared to withdraw troops from the country. Washington acknowledged
Islamabad’s role in facilitating the February 2020 U.S. agreement with the Taliban and the
subsequent peace talks, also known as the intra-Afghan negotiations.
“
Pakistan
objective of was one of settlement
a political three countries to recognise
that gives its Taliban the alliesTaliban’s Islamic Emirate
a road to legitimate [and after
power sharing
and prevents the Afghan 2001]conflict from undermining
provided security at home.
But in January 2021, when President Joe shelter
Biden took to ...
overtheir top
the U.S. leaders. ”
administration, the talks were at
an impasse. The Taliban continued to rely on violence to strengthen their bargaining position;
II Backdrop
II. Backdrop
14 April 2021, to withdraw all U.S. troops by 11 September, even absent a political settlement, has
likely,
Pakistan’s Afghan wake. (At the time of publication, the withdrawal looks set to be
Proxies
completed even earlier, by mid-July.)
Pakistan was one of three countries, the others being Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates,
Pakistan’s
to recognise intervention
the Taliban’s in Islamic
Afghanistan Emirate, and established
links with the afterTaliban predate the
the movement movement’s
captured Kabul1996 in
establishment
1996. intra-Afghan of its
The Taliban’snegotiations Islamic Emirate
rivals, the Northern by several
Alliance, decades.
dominated Seeing itself as inheriting the British
Since started in Doha, Qatar on 12 by Tajiks, Uzbeks
September 2020, and Hazaras,
Pakistan’s not
military
Indian empire’s
surprisingly sought westernNew frontier,
Delhi’s the so-called
backing. After Durand
the Line, in2001
September 1947,terror
Pakistan perceived
attacks in the U.S.,
leadership and Prime Minister Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf government have
Afghanistan
pressure
What’s from
new? asWashington
falling
The within
fast-paced its sphere of ofinfluence. It retains this view,peace often talks
looking andatPledging
repeatedly emphasised thatpromptedwithdrawal
only Pakistan’s
a political military
foreign
settlement troops
canruleramid
end President
stalled
conflict Pervez
in Musharraf
Afghanistan. formally
rising
Afghanistan as a “fifth province” that is
100 threatens dependent on a “benevolent big brother’s good-will”. 94
to sever for
insurgent
support ties anwith
violence thein Taliban.
Afghan-led Afghanistan
peace Yet, after
process, they the
to haveOctober
undermine 2001
also repeatedly U.S.-led
Pakistan’s denied invasion
efforts backing ousted
to facilitate the
any partythe to
Afghans
Taliban’s have
regime,
return historically
toPakistan
Kabul bristled
provided
through at these Pakistani
shelter
power-sharing totoptheir attitudes.
rahbari
arrangements shura,The
that Durand
the havebody Line,
composedmoreover,
international cuts
ofbacking.
their top
the conflict. Yet the presence of the Taliban’s military and political leadership on Pakistani
through
leaders areas that the Pashtuns dominating successive Kabul governments
101 The Taliban’s command structures – political and military have considered their
territoryandgives military
Islamabad commanders.
a direct role, and hence a big stake, in the intra-Afghan parley. The
homeland.
– were Afghan
reconstituted leaders
out of have
these long refused towhich
sanctuaries, recognise
allowed the the2,430km
insurgents line astothe international
recruit, raise
border and staked claims to contiguous Pakistani Pashtun-majority territories. 95
Why
money
Afghan does
and it matter?
conduct
governing and Should
attacks
oppositiononthe Afghan
U.S.circles.
and aligned peaceforcesprocess ascontinue to sputter or altogether
well as Western-backed Afghan dispute
The fail,
has marred
governments. bilateral
Islamabad’s relations Aided also relations.
withbyKabul and Washington
the predation of Kabul’s would
newsour.rulersFurther
and abuses instability or Taliban
by foreign forces,gains
the
in Afghanistan
Taliban gained could support embolden Pakistani militants
in the Pashtun-majority southaligned
and east.with their Afghan counterparts,
102
deepening
As insecurity
appear bentareason usingalongforce the Afghan
to gain powerborder.and install
Since at least the 1970s, Pakistan has backed various Afghan Islamist factions as an antidote to
an Islamic system of government, Islamabad faces renewed pressure from Kabul and Washington
B. Bringing
to convince the Taliban the atTalibanthe very least in from to reduce theviolence
Cold to ensure that negotiations continue.
support
What to various
should be AfghanIslamabad
done? mujahideen shouldfactions
reach during
out totheKabulso-called
to reduce anti-Soviet
mistrust. jihad.
Using Manyaccess
Pakistan’s clout with the insurgents has declined as they continue to make military gainsthe in
mujahideen
and leverage leaders
provided nowby hold
the prominent
Taliban positionssanctuaries
leadership’s in Afghan ruling on its and
territory,opposition
Pakistan circles.
should
Afghanistan.
As the Taliban That influence
insurgency has far
gained from dissipated, however, since the Taliban shuragovernments,
(leadership
Though
press theearlier
insurgents Afghan to leaders
reduce hadground
sought
violence and
beginning
tonegotiate
distance around
themselves
a
2005,
compromise
successive
fromon Pakistan’sAfghan
power-sharing rivalry with
council)
namely still operates
Hamid Karzai’s out
and ofAshraf
Pakistani havens.
Ghani’s, Taliban its
attributed commanders
military in Afghanistan
prowess to Pakistani mayhavens
disputeand
India, opting
arrangements for
with neutrality
other in thestakeholders.
Afghan 1965 and 1971 Indo-Pakistani wars, the Soviet-backed
but will still active
Islamabad’s follow logistical
that leadership’s
and material instructions.
support. 103 The Taliban’s resurgence also strained
communist government in Kabul drew closer to New Delhi as Islamabad sponsored Afghan
Pakistan’s
insurgents. relations
96 with the U.S. In 2011, after an attack on the U.S. embassy in Kabul, Admiral
BRIEFING
169 / ASIA 30 JUNE 2021
Michael Mullen, then chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, called the Taliban-aligned Haqqani
I. Overview
network “a veritable arm” of Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) – the Pakistan military’s premier
“
Aintelligence
failed peace
Following theagency.
1989processSovietcould
104
withdrawalsparkand all-out
the civilcivilwarwar that inensued,
Afghanistan Pakistani and a massiveininflux of
intervention
Pakistan’s
Afghanistan stakes in a stable
continued, including Afghanistan
refugees
failed into have
attempts never
Pakistani been
at forging higher
territory. as violence
political” settlements among escalates in that
warring
country
mujahideen and the
factions. peace process
Yet theacross set
pledges,in train
suchandin September
as after 2020
the Soviet remains
withdrawal, largely deadlocked.
to help should
Afghans An
findupa
could push more Afghan refugees the border strengthen Pakistani militants. Islamabad ratchet
Well aware
unravelling
peaceful that any
Afghanistan path for
could the Taliban’s
embolden return
Pakistani to power
militant (in a manner
groups, that
particularly wouldthe not cast
Pakistani
pressure onsolution
the Taliban
It is in Pakistan’s were mere
to engage
interest rhetoric,
to in peace talks.
persuade, with
using Pakistan
pressure choosing
if need be, instead to backshura
the Taliban handpicked
to break Afghan
the
Pakistan
Taliban,
proxies. as,
and once
threaten
Pakistan’s again, yet
preferredprotector
another
Afghan of a
massive pariah
partners influxregime)
firstof would
Afghan
included depend
refugees.
Gulbuddin on international
Islamabad
Hekmatyar’s has recognition,
been trying
predominantly to
Pakistani
persuade
Pashtun policymakers
its
Hizb-e Afghan Islami. now faced
Taliban allies theto opt challenge of bringing
for a peacefully the Taliban
negotiated in from
political the cold. Its
settlement. As early
failure
as that
in the 2001 Bonn conference
endeavour would strain thatits drew
ties withup aWashington
roadmap forand post-invasion
Kabul. WithAfghanistan, the clock ticking Pakistanon thehad
asked for for
deadline thepulling
Taliban’s outinclusion
U.S. and in NATOconsultations
troops from onAfghanistan,
Afghanistan’s constitutional
Pakistan should and political
redouble its
restructuring.
efforts
As to convince
Hekmatyar A former senior
the Taliban Pakistani
to scale diplomat
back said Pakistan
bothincluding
their attacksthe and hadtheir“pleaded with the
aspirations to U.S. to
reinstitute
produce a morelost ground
stable outcome to Afghanthan aopponents,
105 Taliban victory followed Tajik-dominated
by an attempt at Jamiat-e monopolistic Islami,rule.
include
their
the the Taliban
version
Pakistan of Islamic
military inshifted
Bonn”.
governanceits Pakistan’s
– so that
support to the consistent
the peacePashtun
largely effortsTaliban.
process to persuade
may 97 the
yet succeed. Many U.S.present-day
to bring the
Taliban
Taliban into
leaders theand political
commandersmainstream were appeared
students to bear fruit
(talibs) a decaderun
in madrasas later, when
byPakistan,
two the Obama
factions of the
into Pakistani territory. Violence in Afghanistan would also spill over into destabilising
administration
Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam, signalled its intention
a Pakistani to
Deobandi leave Afghanistan
Pashtun political and its
party, openness
ledinsurgents’ to talking
by Fazlur Rehman with the
and
its conflict-prone
106 supported western border as Taliban gains empower the Afghan Pakistani
Taliban.
Pakistan
Samiul has
Haq.
Haq, who the Afghan
headed peaceKhattak
process,madrasalargely because itsPakhtunkhwa
long-time Taliban ally can
Deobandi militant allies. In thethe Akora
worst-case scenario, a Taliban in Khyber
military takeover in Kabul, province’s Pakistan
use the talks
Nowshera as a road
district, had to power withclose
particularly international
ties to legitimacy
Taliban founder and the attendant
Mullah Mohammad economic
Omar. 98
would face the dilemma of dealing with its ally heading a regime that would enjoy scant outside
support.
Pakistan’s It saw
Deobandi an opportunity
madrasa to push for its preferred option – the Taliban’s inclusion in power-
backing
On 7 Julyand2015,– crucially
Pakistan verynetworks
–hosted little
the first
were also
financialdirect aid. a major source of Pakistani Pashtun recruits to
formal contacts
the Taliban cause. 99 – when the Trump administration beganbetweenpursuingthe Taliban settlement
a political and Afghanin
government representatives,
Afghanistan as the U.S. prepared including
to withdrawthe deputy troops foreign
from the minister,
country. in Murree;
Washington U.S. acknowledged
and Chinese
representatives
Islamabad’s rolewere also present.
in facilitating the A second round,
February 2020 U.S. scheduled
agreement for 31with July,thewas aborted
Taliban andafter
the the
Afghan presidential
subsequent peace talks, palace alsodisclosed
known asthat theTaliban
intra-Afghanleader negotiations.
Mullah Omar had died two years earlier,
and its quarrelling factions, is likely 107 to fade. Time is of the essence if Pakistan is to achieve the
allegedly in a Pakistani hospital. Subsequent Pakistani efforts at a negotiated settlement that
“
Pakistan
objective of was one of settlement
a political three countries that gives to recognise
its Taliban the
would give the Taliban a pathway to power, including the Quadrilateral Dialogue (Pakistan,
allies Taliban’s Islamic Emirate
a road to legitimate power sharing[and after
provided shelter security
to ... their at
top home.
leaders. ”
Afghanistan,
But in Januarythe 2021, U.S.when
and China),
President made Joelittle
Bidenheadway,
took over largely
the U.S. because the insurgents
administration, refused
the talks weretoat
talkimpasse.
an directly The to the Afghan
Taliban government.
continued to rely Thaton dialogue,
violence to moreover,
strengthen came their to bargaining
a halt after position;
the U.S.
killed Taliban
Kabul, too, appeared leader Mullah unwilling Akhtar
to make Mohammed
substantive Mansour in a drone
compromises. strike decision,
Biden’s as he re-entered
announced on
II Backdrop 108
II.
14 Backdrop
April
Pakistan 2021,
from to withdraw
Iran all U.S.108
in May 2016. troops by 11 September, even absent a political settlement, has
likely,
Pakistan’s Afghan wake. (At the time of publication, the withdrawal looks set to be
Proxies
Yet
completed even earlier, by mid-July.)shura following Mansour’s death, with successor Shaikh
the restructuring of the Taliban
Pakistan
Haibatullah wasAkhunzada
one of three countries,Sirajuddin
appointing the othersHaqqani being Saudi as one Arabiaof his and the United
principal Arab Emirates,
deputies, worked to
Pakistan’s
the Taliban’s in Afghanistan and links with the Taliban predate the movement’s 1996
Pakistan’s advantage. The Islamic
Haqqanis, Emirate,
particularlyestablishedclose to after the movement
Pakistan, were now captured
an integral Kabul partin of
establishment
1996. The Taliban’sof its Islamic
rivals, the Emirate by several decades. Seeing itself as inheriting the British
Since
the top intra-Afghan
Taliban negotiations
leadership. AnyNorthern
started in
attempt Alliance,
– byDoha,Kabul dominated
Qatar on 12 by
or Washington Tajiks,
September – to Uzbeks2020,
seek and Hazaras,
Pakistan’s
dialogue withmilitary
thenot
Indian empire’s
surprisingly sought western New frontier,
the Line, in2001
September 1947,terrorPakistan attacksperceived
in the U.S.,
leadership
Taliban would andof Prime Minister
necessity includeImran theKhan’s
Haqqanis Pakistan
and henceTehreek-e-Insaf
reduce pressure governmenton Pakistan have to cut its
Afghanistan
pressure
What’s from
new? asWashington
falling
The within
fast-paced its
prompted sphere
withdrawal of influence.
Pakistan’s
109 Byof military
foreign It retains
troops ruleramid this
Presidentview,
stalled often
Pervez
peace looking andatPledging
Musharraf
talks formally
rising
repeatedly
ties with the emphasised
lethal insurgent that only a political
faction. settlement can end Haqqani’s
2021, Sirajuddin conflict inyounger Afghanistan. brother, Anas,
Afghanistan as a “fifth province” that is
100 threatens dependent on a “benevolent big brother’s good-will”. 94
to sever
insurgent
support
had become ties
for an with
violence thein
Afghan-led
a member Taliban.
Afghanistan
of the peace Yet,
process,
Taliban after the
to
they have
negotiating October
undermine
team 2001
alsoinrepeatedly U.S.-led
Pakistan’s
Doha anddenied invasion
efforts
was engaging to
backingwithousted
facilitate the
any U.S. the
party to
Afghans
Taliban’s have
regime,
return historically
toPakistan
Kabul bristled
provided
shelter
power-sharing totoptheir attitudes.
rahbari
arrangements shura,The
that Durand
the havebody Line,
composed
internationalmoreover, ofbacking.
theircutstop
the conflict.
officials. Yet the presence of the Taliban’s military and political leadership on Pakistani
through
leaders areas that the Pashtuns dominating successive Kabul governments
101 The Taliban’s command structures – political and military have considered their
territoryand gives military
Islamabad commanders.
a direct role, and hence a big stake, in the intra-Afghan parley. The
homeland.
– were Afghan
out of have
these long refused towhich
sanctuaries, recogniseallowed the the2,430km
insurgents line astothe international
recruit, raise
border and staked claims to contiguous Pakistani Pashtun-majority territories. 95
Why
money
C.
Afghan does
and it matter?
conduct
Facilitating
governing and Should
attacks
the
oppositionon the Afghan
U.S.circles.
Peace and peaceforces
aligned
Process process ascontinue to sputter or altogether
well as Western-backed Afghan dispute
The fail,
has marred
governments. bilateral
Islamabad’s relations Aided also relations.
withbyKabul and Washington
the predation of Kabul’s wouldnewsour. rulersFurther
and abuses instabilityby foreignor Taliban
forces,gains the
in Afghanistan
Taliban gained could support embolden Pakistani militants
in the Pashtun-majority south aligned
and east. with their Afghan counterparts,
102
The Trump administration’s decision to hold direct talks with the Taliban, as it prepared to end
deepening
As insecurity
appear bentareas on usingalongforce the Afghan
to gain power border.and install
the U.S.
Since at war
leastinthe Afghanistan,
1970s, Pakistan presentedhas backedPakistan with Afghan
various new opportunities
Islamist factions to push asforan the Taliban’s
antidote to
an Islamic system of government, Islamabad faces110 renewed pressure from Kabul and Washington
inclusionnationalism.
Pashtun in governance Toand gainsecurity
vital U.S. structures.
support, Pakistan In his also2017 South safe
provided Asiahaven policyand address,
military
B. Bringing
to convince
President
the Taliban the Taliban
at the very least in from
to reduce the Cold
violence to ensure that negotiations continue.
support
What toDonald
should variousbewith Trump
Afghanhad
done? criticised factions
mujahideen Pakistan for
during playing
tothe a double
so-called game,
anti-Soviet benefiting
jihad. from
Manyaccess
Pakistan’s clout the Islamabad
insurgents should has declined reach out
as they Kabul
continue to reduce
to make mistrust.
military Using
gainsthe in
massive
mujahideen
and U.S.leaders
leverage assistance
provided now byandhold
the then,
Taliban naming
prominent the Taliban,
positions
leadership’s giving ruling
in Afghan
sanctuaries “safe
on its havens
and to terrorist
opposition
territory, Pakistan circles.
should
Afghanistan.
As the Taliban That influence
insurgency has far
gained from dissipated,
ground beginning however, since the Taliban shuragovernments,
(leadership
organisations”.
Though
press the earlier
insurgents Yet Trump
Afghan to leaders
reduce alsoviolence
implied
had sought that
and the U.S. around
tonegotiate
distance might
themselves
a
2005,
consider
compromise
successive
fromaon political
Pakistan’s Afghan
power-sharing settlement
rivalry with of the
council)
namely still operates
Hamid Karzai’s outand ofAshraf
Pakistani havens.
Ghani’s, Taliban its
attributed commanders
military
111 in Afghanistan
prowess to Pakistani mayhavens
disputeand
Afghan
India, conflict
opting for
arrangements withthat included
neutrality “elements
in thestakeholders.
otherleadership’s
Afghan of the Taliban”.
1965 and 1971 Indo-Pakistani wars, the Soviet-backedOnce the Trump administration
but will still active
Islamabad’s follow that
logistical and instructions.
material support. 103 The Taliban’s resurgence also strained
accepted the Taliban’s
communist government in Kabul drew demand to deal directly
closer towith
Newthem,Delhi bypassing
as Islamabad the sponsored
Afghan government, Afghan
Pakistan’s
Pakistan
insurgents. wasrelations
quick
96 with
to the
respond U.S. In 2011,
positively toafter
U.S. an attack
requests on
to the U.S.
facilitate embassy
the nascent in Kabul,
peace Admiral
process.
BRIEFING
Michael
112 169 / ASIA 30 JUNE 2021
Mullen, then chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, called the Taliban-aligned Haqqani
I. Overview
network “a veritable arm” of Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) – the Pakistan military’s premier
“
Aintelligence
failed peace
Following theagency.
1989processSovietcould
104
withdrawal sparkand all-out
the civil civilwar war that inensued,
intervention
Pakistan’s stakes
A U.S. analystcontinued,
Afghanistan in
commented a stable Afghanistan
thatrefugees
including thefailed
Trump have
into never
Pakistani
administration’s
attempts been
at forging higher
territory.
“new
politicalas
planviolence
” settlements escalates
B”, a negotiated among in that
outcome
warringof
country
the
mujahideen and
Afghan war the
factions. peace
through process
Yetdirect
theacross set
talks
pledges, in train
withsuch in
the September
asTaliban,
after thewas 2020
Soviet“alwaysremains largely
Pakistan’s
withdrawal, deadlocked.
Planshould
to help 113
A”. ratchet
Afghans An
findupa
could push more Afghan refugees the border and strengthen Pakistani militants. Islamabad
Well aware
unravelling
Pakistan’s that any
Afghanistan
internal path
dynamics for
could the Taliban’s
embolden
then, return
Pakistani to power
militant (in a
groups,manner that
particularly would the not cast
Pakistani
peaceful
pressure onsolution
the
It is in Pakistan’s Taliban were mere
to engage
interest to in peaceas
rhetoric,
persuade,
now,
with
talks. using
determined
Pakistan
pressure
the direction
choosing
if need be, instead oftoits
the Taliban
Afghanistan
back handpicked
shura
policy.
to break Afghan
the
Pakistan
Taliban,
proxies. as,
and once
threaten
Pakistan’s again, yet
preferred protector
anotherAfghan of a
massive pariah
partners influxregime)
firstof would
Afghan
included depend
refugees.
Gulbuddin on international
Islamabad
Hekmatyar’s has recognition,
been trying
predominantly to
Pakistani
persuade
its
Taliban allies theto opt challenge of bringing
negotiated in from
failure
as that
in the 2001 Bonn conference
endeavour would strain thatits drew
ties with up aWashington
Kabul. WithAfghanistan, the clock ticking Pakistan on the had
asked for for
deadline thepulling
U.S. and in NATO consultations
Pakistan should and redoublepolitical its
“
A settlement
leaders. China, Pakistan’s would also
closest end decades
foreign of war
partner, alsoinprobably
Afghanistan prefersand that might
Islamabad helpwork stabilise
to
restructuring.
efforts
As to convince
Hekmatyar Alostformer
ground senior
the Taliban to Pakistani
to scale
Afghan diplomat
back
opponents, said Pakistan
bothincluding
their attacks the hadtheir
and “pleaded
Tajik-dominated with
aspirations the
to U.S.
Jamiat-e to
reinstitute
Islami,
produce a more stable outcome
include the Taliban
Pakistan’s
inshifted
Bonn”.
than conflict-prone
105 a Taliban victorywestern
Pakistan’s consistent
followed borders. by an attempt
effortsTaliban.
to persuade
” the at monopolistic rule.
U.S.present-day
to bring the
their
the version
Pakistan of Islamic
military governance its – so that
support to the the peacePashtun
largely process may yet succeed.
97 Many
Taliban
Taliban into
leaders the political
and commandersmainstream were appeared
students to bear
(talibs) fruit
in a
madrasasdecade runlater,
by when
two the
factions Obama
of the
into
SincePakistani
taking power territory. Violence in
in a contested Afghanistan
election in July would
2018, alsoandand spill over
lacking into Pakistan,
a stable majority destabilising
inwith the
administration
Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam, signalled its intention
a Pakistani to
Pashtun political its openness to talking
its conflict-prone
parliament, 106Prime western
Minister border
Imranas Taliban
Khan has gains
largely empower
ceded because theparty,
Afghan
decision-making
ledinsurgents’
by Fazlur Rehman
on security Pakistani
and
and
foreign
Taliban.
Pakistan
Samiul has
Haq.
supported
Haq, who the
headed Afghan
the peace
Akora Khattak process, largely
madrasa in Khyber its long-time
Pakhtunkhwa Taliban ally
province’s can
Deobandi
policy militant allies. In
114 the worst-case scenario, a Taliban military takeover in Kabul, Pakistan
use thetotalks
Nowshera
the top as abrass.
district, road
hadto power Earlier
particularly
governments,
withcloseinternational
ties
such
toheading
as Nawaz
legitimacy
Taliban founder and Sharif’s
the attendant
Mullah
(2013-2018),
Mohammad economic had 98
Omar.
would
attempted face the
to easedilemma of dealing
tensions withtoAfghanistan with its allythough a regime
theoption
high command that would enjoy
still hedged scant outside
its bets,
support.
Pakistan’s It Deobandi
saw an opportunity
madrasa push for
networks were itsalso
preferred
a major source – the Taliban’s
of Pakistani inclusion
Pashtun in power-
recruits to
backing
either
On 7 July and
actively
2015,– crucially
or tacitly
Pakistan – very
supporting
hosted little
the financial
the
first Afghan
direct aid.insurgency.
formal contacts 115between
Under Khan’s
the government,
Taliban and Afghan
however, therepresentatives,
government
Afghanistan military
as the U.S. leadership,
prepared a former
including
to withdrawthesenior
deputy
troopsarmy
foreign
fromofficer said,
minister,
the country. “is
in solely
Murree;
Washington responsible
U.S. acknowledged for
and Chinese
Afghan
Islamabad’s policy,
representatives and
rolewere the foreign
also present.
in facilitating ministry
the A is merely
second round,
February 2020 U.S.tasked
scheduledwith
agreement implementation”.
for 31with July,
thewas aborted
Taliban 116 That
andafterthe said,the
the high command’s
Afghan presidential
subsequent peace talks, preferred
palace alsodisclosedoption
known asthat for Afghanistan
theTaliban
intra-Afghan is in complete
leader negotiations. alignment
Mullah Omar had died two years earlier, with Khan’s. Both
support
allegedlya in deal that would
a Pakistani protect Pakistan’s
hospital. 107 Subsequent interests in and efforts
Pakistani influence at aover Afghanistan,
negotiated settlement including that
“
Pakistan
objective of
by giving
would givethe
was
theTaliban
one
a political of three
settlement
Talibana apower-sharing
countries
pathway to power,
that gives to recognise
its Taliban
117 A settlement
role. including the
allies Taliban’s
a road
would also
the Quadrilateral
to Islamic
legitimate
end decades
Dialogue
Emirate
power sharing
of war
(Pakistan,
[and in after
provided shelter to ...security
their at
top home.
leaders. ” Facilitating
Afghanistan
Afghanistan,
But in January and
the2021,might
U.S.whenand help stabilise
China),
President made Pakistan’s
Joe little
Bidenheadway, conflict-prone
took over largely
the U.S. western
because borders.
the
administration, insurgents refused
the talks the
were toat
U.S.-led
talk
an Afghan
directly
impasse. to the
The peaceAfghan
Taliban process wouldtoalso
government.
continued rely help
That mend relations
on dialogue,
violence moreover,
to withcame
strengthen Washington.
their to bargaining
a halt after position;
the U.S.
killed Taliban
Kabul, too, appeared leader Mullah unwilling Akhtar
to make Mohammedsubstantive Mansour in a drone
compromises. strike decision,
Biden’s as he re-entered announced on
II Backdrop 108
II. Backdrop
Pakistan
14 April from to
2021, Iran all U.S.108
in May 2016.
withdraw troops by 11 September, even absent a political settlement, has
The peace timelines
tightened process soon bore outa the
for getting peace predictions
process moving of howbefore it would thehelp Pakistan.
conflict In October
intensifies, as appears2018,
during
likely, Zalmay Khalilzad’s wake. visit to Islamabad, a month after he thewas appointed U.S.set special
Pakistan’s Afghan (At
Proxiesthe time of publication, withdrawal looks to be
representative
Yet the restructuring for Afghanistan
completed even earlier, by mid-July.) of the reconciliation,
Taliban shura Pakistan
following released
Mansour’s Mullah
death, withAbdul Ghani
successor Baradar,
Shaikh a
Pakistan
co-founder
Haibatullah was of one
the of
Akhunzada three
Taliban countries,
and
appointing formerly theMullah
Sirajuddin othersHaqqanibeing Saudi
Omar’s deputy,
as one Arabia who
of his and
had the
been
principal United
detained ArabinEmirates,
deputies, Karachi
worked to
Pakistan’s
the Taliban’s in Afghanistan
Islamic Emirate, and links with
established the
after Taliban
the movementpredate the movement’s
captured Kabul 1996
in of
since
Pakistan’s2010,advantage.
when he had The reportedly
Haqqanis, reached
particularly out toclose Hamid to Karzai’s
Pakistan, government
were now anwithout
integral Pakistan’s
part
establishment
1996. The Taliban’sof its Islamic
rivals, Emirate by several decades. Seeing itself as inheriting the British
blessing.
the
Since top 118
Taliban
intra-Afghan Baradar
leadership. wasthe
negotiations AnyNorthern
allowed to join
attempt
started Alliance,
– by
in the
Doha,Kabul dominated
Taliban’s
Qataror Washington
on 12 by
political Tajiks,
office
September – toin Uzbeks
seekDoha.
2020, and
dialogue119 Hazaras,
Pakistan’s Baradar’s
withmilitary
thenot
Indian
surprisingly empire’s sought western New frontier,
the Line, in2001
September 1947,terror Pakistan attacks perceived
in the U.S.,
presencewould
Taliban
leadership gave
andthe of
Prime political
necessity
Minister office
include gravitas
Imran theKhan’s it had
Haqqanis previously
and hence
Pakistan lacked
reducebecause
Tehreek-e-Insaf pressure ofon
government hisPakistan
standing
have towithin cut its
Afghanistan
pressure
What’s from
new? asWashington
falling
The within
fast-paced its
prompted sphere
withdrawal of
Pakistan’sinfluence.
of military
foreign It
troopsretains
ruleramid this
President view,
stalled often
Pervez
peace looking
Musharraf
talks and at formally
rising
the Taliban
ties with the
repeatedly shura.
lethalRecognising
emphasised insurgent
that only the
faction. Pakistan
a political 109 By military leadership’s
2021, Sirajuddin
settlement can end Haqqani’s predominant
conflict inyounger policymaking
Afghanistan. brother, role,
Anas,
Pledging
Afghanistan as a “fifth province” 100 that is after
dependent on a “benevolent big brother’s good-will”. 94
to
had sever
insurgent
the U.S.
support become ties
keptan
for with
violence
aitmember thein
in the loop
Afghan-led Taliban.
Afghanistan
of the as Taliban
peace talks Yet,
threatens
with
process, the
negotiating
they the
to
Taliban
haveOctober
undermine
team progressed.
also 2001
inrepeatedly
Doha and U.S.-led
Pakistan’sVisits was invasion
efforts
byengaging
denied top to ousted
facilitate
U.S. officials,
backing with
any U.S.thethe
party to
Afghans
Taliban’s have
regime,
return historically
toPakistan
Kabul bristled
provided
shelter
power-sharing attitudes. The Durand Line, moreover, cuts
including
officials.
the conflict. peaceYet envoythe Khalilzad
presence of theand senior to
Taliban’s their
military
top rahbari
arrangements
officers,
military shura,
and that
accompaniedthe
political havebody composed
international
every
leadership critical ofbacking.
their
juncture.
on Pakistani top
through
leaders
120 Anand areas that
military the Pashtuns
commanders. dominating
101 The successive
Taliban’s Kabul governments have considered their
territory opposition
gives Islamabad politiciana direct said: “The
role, and military
hence bigcommand
aleadershipstake, was in the structures
under the–impression
intra-Afghan political
parley. andthat
Themilitary
the
homeland.
– were Afghan
out of have
these long refused
sanctuaries, 121 to recognise
which allowed the 2,430km
the insurgents line asto the international
recruit, raise
U.S. was subletting
sanctuary Pakistan gives Afghanistanthe Taliban to them”.also reinforces mistrust of Pakistani intentions among
border and staked claims to oncontiguous Pakistani Pashtun-majority 95 The dispute
Why
money does
and
AfghanFacilitating it matter?
conduct Should
attacks the
U.S. Afghan
and peaceforces
aligned process ascontinue toterritories.
well as Western-backed sputter or altogether Afghan fail,
C.
has marred
governing and opposition
bilateral
the
relations.
Peace circles.Process
Islamabad’s relations
governments. Aided also withbyKabul and Washington
the predation of Kabul’s would newsour. rulersFurtherand abuses instabilityby foreignor Taliban
forces,gains the
in Afghanistan
Taliban
Anxious gained
to ensure could
support
that embolden
in the
the talks Pakistani
Pashtun-majority
succeeded, militants south
the military aligned
and with intervened
east.
quickly their Afghan
102 tocounterparts,
remove hurdles,
The Trump administration’s decision to hold direct talks with the Taliban, as it prepared to end
deepening
such
As as after
foreign insecurity
President
soldiers inTrump
leave, Pakistan,
and the especially
abruptly
insurgents calledin itstalks
off
appear tribal
bent on areas alongforce
6 September
on using the2019 Afghan
to gain on the border.
power eveand of an install
the U.S.
Since at war
leastinthe Afghanistan,
1970s, Pakistan presented has backed Pakistan with Afghan
various new opportunities
Islamist factions to push asfor
an the Taliban’s
antidote to
expected
an Islamicdeal. system ofAt122 a news briefing
government, Islamabadon 17 January,faces110 concluding
renewed pressure his visit
fromto Washington,
Kabul and Washington Foreign
inclusionnationalism.
Pashtun in governance Toand gainsecurity
vital U.S. structures.
support, Pakistan In his also2017 South safe
provided Asiahaven policyand address,
military
B.
Minister
to Bringing
convince
President
Shah theMahmood
Talibanthe Taliban
atQureshi
the verysaid in
least from
he tohad reducethe
told Cold
Secretary
violence ofensure
to State Mike that Pompeo:
negotiations “Wecontinue.
fulfilled
support
What toDonald
should variousbe Trump
Afghanhad
done? Islamabadcriticised
mujahideen should Pakistan
factions reach for
during
out playing
to the
Kabul a double
so-called
to reduce game,
mistrust. jihad.
Using from
Many
the
our promise.
Pakistan’s clout Thewith Taliban came to thehas
the insurgents table.
declinedThen as you they saidcontinue
the delegation to makeshould military be gains in access
authoritative
massive
mujahideen
and U.S.
leverage assistance
leaders
provided now andhold
by thehas then,
Taliban naming
prominent the
positions
leadership’s Taliban, in giving
Afghan
sanctuaries “safe
ruling
on havens
and
its the to terrorist
opposition
should
and powerful.
Afghanistan. We
That did that”.
influence 123 far from dissipated, however, since Taliban shuragovernments,
(leadership
As
Thoughthe Taliban
organisations”.earlier insurgency
Yet
Afghan Trump leadersgained
also had ground
impliedsought thatbeginning
to the U.S.
distance around
might
themselves 2005,
consider successive
froma political
Pakistan’s Afghan
settlement
rivalry of the
with
press
council) thestill
insurgents
operates toout
reduceofAshraf violencehavens.
Pakistani and negotiate Talibanaits compromise in
commanders onAfghanistan
power-sharing mayhavensdisputeand
namely
Afghan
India, Hamid
conflict
opting for Karzai’s
that and
included
neutrality “elementsGhani’s,
in thestakeholders. of attributed
the Taliban”. military
111
1965 and 1971 Indo-Pakistani wars, the Soviet-backed Once prowess
the Trump to Pakistani
administration
arrangements
but will still active with
follow otherleadership’s
that Afghan instructions. 103 The Taliban’s resurgence also strained
Islamabad’s
accepted
communist the Taliban’s
government logistical
demand
in Kabuland to material
deal directly
drew closersupport.
towith
Newthem, Delhi bypassing
as February
Islamabad the sponsored
Afghan government, Afghan
Pakistan’s
Pakistan’s top
relationsmilitary with and the political
U.S. In leaders
2011, welcomed
after an attack the on29 the U.S. 2020
embassy U.S.-Taliban
in Kabul, peace
Admiral
Pakistan
insurgents. was quick
96 to respond positively to U.S. requests to facilitate the nascent peace process.
deal,
BRIEFING
Michael andMullen,
committed,
169 /then ASIA in Prime
30
chairman JUNEMinister
2021
of the Joint Khan’s words,
Chiefs Pakistan
of Staff, called “tothe playing its role” in Haqqani
Taliban-aligned ensuring it
112
I. Overview
“holds
networkand “a succeeds”.
veritable arm” ofThrough
124
Inter-Services the deal, the Taliban
Intelligence had–achieved
(ISI) the Pakistan a keymilitary’s
goal: a firm date for
premier
“
Athe departure
failed
intelligence
Following peace
the
of foreign
agency.
1989process 104forces
Sovietcould
in return for pledges to end ties with terrorist groups, including al-
withdrawal sparkand all-outthe civil civilwar war that inensued,
intervention
125 For Pakistan,
Qaeda,
Pakistan’s andstakesto enter in ainto
stable negotiations
Afghanistan over have a political
never settlement
been higher to the
as conflict.
violence escalates in that
Afghanistan commented thatrefugees
including thefailed
Trump into
attempts Pakistani
administration’s
at forging territory.
“new
political plan” B”, a negotiated
settlements among outcome
warring of
the
countrydeal’s
Pakistan’s
andvalue
stakes
the
inlay
peace in the
Afghanistan
processprospect
are risingof
set in
as aU.S.
train political
and NATO
in settlement
September
troops prepare
2020 that would,
to
remains by
leave. All-out
largely benefiting
war after its
deadlocked.
theTaliban
113
withdrawal
An
the
could
Afghan
mujahideen
push more
war through
factions.
Afghan refugees Yetdirect
theacross talks
pledges, withsuch
the border
the asTaliban,
and after thewas
strengthen Soviet“always
Pakistani
Pakistan’s
withdrawal,
militants. Islamabad
Planshould
to help A”. ratchet
Afghans findupa
ally,
Well cement
aware
unravelling Pakistan’s
that any
Afghanistan path influence
for
could the over
Taliban’s
embolden Afghanistan.
return
Pakistani to Pakistan’s
power
militant (in afacilitation
groups, manner that
particularly waswouldalso
the expected
not cast
Pakistani to
Pakistan’s
peaceful
pressure internal
onsolution
the Taliban dynamics
wereto126 mere
engage then,
peaceas
rhetoric,
in now,
with
talks. determined
Pakistan the direction
choosing instead oftoits Afghanistan
back handpicked policy.
Afghan
It is
garner in Pakistan’s
U.S. interest to persuade, using pressure if need be, the Taliban shura to break the
Pakistan
Taliban,
proxies. as,rewards.
and once
threaten again, yetprotector
another of partners
a pariah
massive influxregime)
of Afghan wouldrefugees.
depend on international
Islamabad has been recognition,
trying to
logjam inPakistan’s
the peacepreferred talks by reducing Afghan violencefirst and included
moderating Gulbuddin
demands Hekmatyar’s
for Islamic,predominantly
likely Sunni
Pakistani
persuade
its
Taliban allies the to opt challenge of bringing
negotiated in from
failure
as that
in the 2001endeavourBonn conference
would strain thatits drew
ties with up aWashington
Kabul. WithAfghanistan, the clock ticking Pakistan on the had
might
Those harm
hopes Islamabad’s
were dashed relations
as the withtalks,
Doha Washington which – a grave
began in concern formade
September, Pakistani
little military
progress,
asked for for
deadline thepulling
U.S. and in NATOconsultations
Pakistan should and redouble political its
“
A settlement
leaders.
partly China,of
because would
Pakistan’s
Kabul’s also
closest
fractured end decades
foreign
politics, partner,of largely
but waralsoinprobably
Afghanistan
because prefers
the Ghani and
that might
Islamabad
government helpandworkstabilise
theto
restructuring.
efforts
As to convince
Hekmatyar Alostformer
ground senior
the Taliban to Pakistani
to scale
Afghan diplomat
back
opponents, said Pakistan
bothincluding
their attacks the hadtheir
and “pleaded
Tajik-dominated with
aspirations the
Jamiat-eto U.S. to
reinstitute
Islami,
produce
Taliban
include
a more
shura
the were
Taliban
stable equally Pakistan’s
outcome
inshifted
Bonn”. averse than
105 to conflict-prone
a Taliban
making
Pakistan’s
victorywestern
concessions.
consistent
followed 127 borders.
bydid
It
effortsTaliban.
an not
to persuade
attempt” the
help at
thatmonopolistic
U.S. thetotalks
bring the
rule.
their
the version
Pakistan of Islamic
military governance its support– so that to the the peacePashtun
largely process may yet succeed.
97 Many present-day
A failed peace
commenced so processtocould spark all-out civil war in Afghanistan and a massive influx of refugees
Taliban
Taliban into
leaders theclose political
and
the
commanders
U.S.
mainstream presidential
were appeared
students
election,
to bearadding
(talibs) fruit
in auncertainty
madrasas decaderun later,
by
aswhen
two
to whether
the Obama
factions of the
into Pakistani
Washington
Since taking power wouldterritory.
stick Violence
with
in a contested the in Afghanistan
February
election 2020
in July would
deal. Withalso
2018, andand spill
the over
insurgents
also
a stable majority continuingdestabilising
inwithtothe rely
administration
Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam, signalled a its intention
Pakistani to
Pashtun political its
party, openness
led by to
Fazlur talking
Rehman and
its
on conflict-prone
force to
parliament, 106 strengthen
Prime western
Ministertheir border
bargaining
Imran as
KhanTalibanhand,
has gains empower
Pakistan’s
largely cededalready the Afghantense
decision-making insurgents’
relationship
with andtheforeign
Ghani
Taliban.
Pakistan
Samiul has
Haq.
supported
Haq, who the Afghan
headed the peace
Akora process,
Khattak largely
madrasa because
in Khyber itsPakhtunkhwa
long-time Taliban
province’sally can
Deobandi
government
policy militant
worsened allies. In
further.
114 the worst-case
Hoping to scenario,
salvage a
progress Taliban made, military
Pakistan takeover
has in
urged Kabul,
the Pakistan
Biden
use thetotalks
Nowshera
the topas abrass.
district, road
hadto power Earlier
particularly
governments,
withclose international
ties
such
toheading
as Nawaz
legitimacy
Taliban founder and Sharif’s
the attendant
Mullah
(2013-2018),
Mohammad economic
Omar.
had 98
would face
administration the dilemma
to build of
on dealing
the Doha withpeace its ally
process. That a regime
process that
still would
exists, enjoy
and U.S.scantand outside
attempted
support.
Pakistan’s
to ease
It Deobandi
saw tensions withtoAfghanistan
an opportunity
madrasa push for
networks were
though
itsalsopreferred
a major
theoption
high command
source – the Taliban’s
of Pakistani
still hedged
inclusion
Pashtun inPakistani
its bets,
recruits power-to
backing
efforts
either
On 7 to
July and
actively
2015,–
energise crucially
or it
tacitly
Pakistan –
continue,very
supporting
hosted little
but
the itfinancial
thefaces
first new
Afghan
direct aid.
and serious
insurgency.
formal contacts challenges.
115 Under
between Khan’s
the government,
Taliban and Afghan
government
Afghanistan military
as the U.S. leadership,
prepared a former
including
to withdrawthesenior
deputy
troopsarmy
foreign
fromofficer said,
minister,
the country. “is
in solely
Murree;
Washington responsible
U.S. acknowledged for
and Chinese
Afghan
Islamabad’s policy,
representatives and
also present.
in facilitating ministry
the A is merely
second round,
February 2020 U.S.tasked
scheduled with
agreement implementation”.
for 31 with July,
thewas Taliban 116
aborted That
andafterthe said,the
III. Back to Square One?
the high
subsequent command’s
Afghan presidential peace talks,
and its quarrelling factions, is likely
preferred
palace alsodisclosedoption
known asthat
to
for Afghanistan
theTaliban
fade.
intra-Afghan
Time
is in complete
leader negotiations.
is of the
alignment
Mullah Omar had died two years earlier,
essence if Pakistan is
with
to
Khan’s.
achieve the
Both
support
allegedlya in deal that would
“
Pakistan
objective of
by
wouldgiving give
was
the the
one
a political
Taliban
Taliban
of a three
settlement
power-sharing
a pathway
countriesthat gives
to role.
power,
to recognise
its Taliban
117 A settlement
including
the
the
allies Taliban’s
a road
would
Quadrilateral
to
alsoIslamic
legitimate
end
Dialogue
Emirate
decades
power
(Pakistan,of
sharing
[and
war in after
The Biden administration’s
and prevents the Afghan policy
conflict has changed
from undermining the rules
security of theat Afghanistan
home. game for Afghans and
Afghanistan
Afghanistan,
But in January and
the2021,might
U.S.when 2001]
and help China), provided
stabilise
President made Joe shelter
Pakistan’s
little
Biden to ...
headway,
took over their
conflict-prone
largely
the top
U.S. leaders.
western
because the
administration, ” Facilitating
borders.
insurgents the talksrefused the
were toat
for the country’s neighbours. On 14 April, President Biden announced an unconditional
U.S.-led
talk
an
withdrawal Afghan
directly
impasse. toU.S.
The
of thepeaceAfghan
Taliban
forces process 11would
bygovernment.
continued toalso
September, relyThathelp
on mend
thedialogue,
violence
twentieth relations
moreover,
to strengthenwithcame
anniversary Washington.
of to
their the a terror
halt after
bargaining attacksthe U.S.
position;
that led
killed
Kabul, Taliban
too, leader
appeared Mullah
unwilling Akhtarto makeMohammed substantive Mansour
to the U.S. military intervention in Afghanistan. The pullout of U.S. and allied troops is well under compromises.in a drone strike
Biden’s as he
decision, re-entered
announced on
II Backdrop 108
II. andBackdrop
Pakistan
14
wayApril from to
2021,
likely Iran
beincompleted
May 2016.
to withdraw
108
all U.S. troops
during bybut
July, 11 the
September, even
prospects of aabsent a political
negotiated peacesettlement, has
appear slim.
The
128peace timelines
tightened process soon bore outa the
for getting peace predictions
process moving of howbefore it would thehelp Pakistan.
conflict In October
intensifies, 2018,
as appears
during
likely, Zalmay Khalilzad’s wake. visit to Islamabad, a month after he thewas appointed U.S.set special
Pakistan’s Afghan (At
Proxies the time of publication, withdrawal looks to be
representative
Yet the restructuring for
completed even earlier, by mid-July.)Afghanistan
of the reconciliation,
Taliban shura Pakistan
following released
Mansour’s Mullah
successor Baradar,
Shaikh a
Pakistan
co-founder
theby
Akhunzada of three
Taliban countries,
and
Sirajuddin othersHaqqani being Saudi
Omar’s deputy,
as one Arabia who
of his and
had the
been
principal United
detained
deputies,ArabinEmirates,
Karachi
worked to
An earlier effort
Pakistan’s intervention U.S. in envoy Zalmay
Afghanistan Khalilzad
and links to
with convince
the Ghani’s
Taliban government
predate the and the
movement’s Taliban
1996
to
sincerecognise
Pakistan’s2010, the Taliban’s
when he had Islamic
reportedly Emirate,
reached established
out toclose Hamid after the movement
Karzai’s government captured
anwithout Kabul in of
Pakistan’s
to agree
establishment onadvantage.
a transitional
of its
The
Islamic
Haqqanis,
power-sharing
Emirate
particularly
by government
several decades. atto Pakistan,
aSeeing
proposed itself
were
April
as
now
meeting
inheriting
integral
in
the Turkey, part
British
1996.
blessing.
the
Since top The Taliban’s
118
Taliban
intra-Afghan Baradar rivals,
leadership. wasthe
allowed attemptto join
started Alliance,
– by
in the
Doha, Kabul dominated
Taliban’s
Qatar 12 by
political
orstakeholders,
Washington
on Tajiks,
office
Doha.
seek
2020, and
dialogue 119 Hazaras,
withmilitary
thenot129
alongside
Indian a UN-sponsored
empire’s western meeting
frontier, theofso-called
major regional
Durand Line, in2001 1947,had proven
Pakistan a non-starter.
perceived
surprisingly
presence
Taliban
leadership gave
would andsought
the
of
Prime New
political
necessity Delhi’s
Minister office
include backing.
Imrangravitas
the After
it
Haqqanis
Khan’s had the
Pakistanand September
previouslyhence lacked
reduce
Tehreek-e-Insaf terror
because
pressure attacks
of
government onhis in
standing
Pakistan the
have U.S.,
to within
cut its
Angered
Afghanistan thatas the U.S. had
falling within renegedits on the
sphere of 1influence.
May pullout It date and
retains this reluctant
view, to be
often pressured
looking at openly,
pressure
What’s
the
ties Taliban
with the
repeatedly from
new? Washington
shura.The fast-paced
lethalRecognising
emphasised insurgent prompted
that only withdrawal
the
faction. Pakistan’s
Pakistan
aconference
political109 Byof foreignmilitary
military
2021,
settlement troops ruler
leadership’s
Sirajuddin amid
can endfuture President
stalled
predominant
Haqqani’s
conflict Pervez
peace
inyounger Musharraf
talks and
policymaking
Afghanistan. brother, formally
rising role,
Anas,
Pledging
the Taliban
Afghanistan refused
as a “fifth to attend
province” any that is after
dependent on Afghanistan’s
on a “benevolent “until
big all foreign
brother’s troops
good-will”. 94
to
the sever
insurgent
U.S. ties
keptan with
violence the in Taliban.
Afghanistan 100 Yet,
threatens the
to October
undermine 2001 U.S.-led
Pakistan’s invasion
efforts to ousted
facilitate the
the
had
support become
withdraw”. for aitmember
130 in the loop
Afghan-led of the as Taliban
peace talks with
process, the
negotiating
they Taliban
have team progressed.
also inrepeatedly
Doha and Visits was byengaging
denied top U.S. officials,
backing with
any U.S.party to
Afghans
Taliban’s have
regime,
return historically
toPakistan
Kabul bristled
provided
shelter
power-sharing attitudes. The Durand Line, moreover, cuts
including
officials.
the conflict. peaceYet envoythe Khalilzad
presence of theand senior to
Taliban’s their
military
top rahbari
arrangements
officers,
military and shura, that the
accompanied
political havebody composed
international
every
leadership critical ofbacking.
on Pakistani their
juncture. top
through
leaders
101 The successive
territory opposition
gives Islamabad politiciana direct said: role,“The and military
hence bigcommand
aleadershipstake, was in the structures
intra-Afghan politicalparley. and
that military
The the
homeland.
– were Afghan
out of have
these long refused
recruit, raise
U.S.
sanctuary
Reacting was subletting
toPakistan
Biden’s gives Afghanistan
withdrawalthe Taliban to them”. also reinforces
announcement, Pakistan’smistrust of Pakistani
foreign intentions among
office emphasised that the
border and staked claims to oncontiguous Pakistani Pashtun-majority territories. 95 The dispute
Why
money does
and it matter?
conduct Should
attacks the
U.S. Afghan
and peace
aligned process
forces as continue
well as to sputter
Western-backed or altogether
Afghan fail,
C.
Afghan
troop
has
Facilitating
governing“coincides
withdrawal
marred bilateral
the
and opposition
relations.
Peace
with circles.
progress Process in the peace process”. Reportedly persuaded, or
the predation of Kabul’s would sour. rulersFurther instability or Taliban gains
pressured, by Pakistan, the Taliban have since agreednew to rejoin andpeace
the abuses by foreign
process, withforces,
talks once the
in Afghanistan
Taliban
Anxious gained
to ensure could
supportthat embolden
in 131
the thetalks Pakistani
Pashtun-majority
the military aligned
and with intervened
east.
102 tocounterparts,
remove hurdles,
again
The Trump resuming in Doha.
administration’s The
decision group’s
to hold leaders
directhave talksnot with yetthe been convinced,
Taliban, however,
as it prepared to end
to
deepening
such
As as
foreign after insecurity
President
soldiers inTrump
leave, Pakistan,
and the especially
abruptly
insurgents called in itstalks
off
appear tribal
benton areas
6
on alongforce
September
using the2019 Afghan
to on
gain border.
the
power eve of
and an
install
disclose
the U.S.
Since theirinthe
at war
least political
Afghanistan,
1970s, vision
Pakistan for Afghanistan,
presented has backed Pakistan beyond
with Afghan
various vague
new generalities
opportunities
Islamist factions such
to push as
asforaandemand
the
antidote fortoan
Taliban’s
expected
an Islamic deal.
system 122 of At a news
government, briefing Islamabadon 17 January,
faces concluding
renewed pressure his visit
from to Washington,
Kabul and Foreign
Washington
Islamic
inclusion
Pashtun government.
in governance
nationalism. Until
Toand they
gain begin
security
vital U.S. tosupport,
do so, a Pakistan
structures. genuine
110 In his negotiation
also 2017 South
provided cannot
Asiahaven
safe take place.
policy address,
and military
B.
Minister
to Bringing
convince
President
Shah theMahmood
Talibanthe Taliban
atQureshi
the verysaid in
least from
he tohad reducethe
told Cold
Secretary
violence toofensure
State Mike that Pompeo:
fulfilled
support
What toDonald
Afghanhad
done? Islamabad criticised
factions reach for
during
out playing
to the
Kabul a double
so-called
to reduce game,
mistrust. jihad.
Using from
Many
the
our promise.
Pakistan’s clout Thewith Taliban came to thehas
the insurgents table.
declinedThen as you saidcontinue
they the delegation to makeshould military be gains in access
authoritative
massive
mujahideen
and leverageU.S. assistance
leaders
provided now andhold
by thehas then,
Taliban naming
prominent the
positions
Afghan
sanctuaries “safe
ruling
on havens
and
opposition
should
and powerful.
Afghanistan. We
That did that”.
influence 123 far from dissipated, however, since Taliban shura (leadership
At
As the
the same
Taliban
organisations”. time, Yet the
insurgencyTrumpTaliban gained
also have
implied also
ground escalated
thatbeginning
the U.S.military
around
might attacks
2005,
consider countrywide,
successive
a political Afghanreportedly
settlement governments,
of the
Though
press earlier
thestill
insurgents Afghan leaders
toout
reduce had sought
violencehavens. to distance
and negotiate themselves
acommanders
compromise in from Pakistan’s
onAfghanistan
council)
capturing
namely Hamid operates
district centres
Karzai’s and ofAshraf
and Pakistani
threatening
Ghani’s, Taliban
provincial
attributed capitals,
its military
111 including
prowess those
to ringing
Pakistani may dispute
Kabul.
havens If and
the
Afghan
India,
arrangements conflict
opting for withthat included
neutrality “elements
in thestakeholders.
otherleadership’s
Afghan of the Taliban”.
1965 and 1971 Indo-Pakistani wars, the Soviet-backed Once the Trump administration
but
peace will
Islamabad’s still
process follow
fails
active that
to make
logistical headway,
andtomaterial instructions.
a new and
support. bloodier103 phase
The of Afghanistan’s civil war could
accepted
communist
Pakistan’s
thegovernment
top
Taliban’s
military
demand
andin Kabul
political
deal directly
drew closer
leaders towith
welcomedNewthem, Delhi
the asTaliban’s
bypassing
29 Islamabad
February
resurgence
the Afghan government,
sponsored
2020
also
U.S.-Taliban Afghanstrained
peace
ensue,
Pakistan’s
Pakistan withwas potential
relations
quick to
96 withconsequences
the U.S.
respond positively for Pakistan’s
In 2011,toafter U.S.an security.
attack to
requests onfacilitate
the U.S. embassy the nascent in Kabul,
peace Admiralprocess.
insurgents.
deal, andMullen,
committed,
BRIEFING
Michael
112 169 /then ASIA in Prime
30
chairman JUNEMinister
2021
of the Joint Khan’s Chiefswords, Pakistan
of Staff, called “tothe playing its role” in Haqqani
Taliban-aligned ensuring it
I. Overview
“holds
networkand “a succeeds”.
veritable arm” ofThrough
124
Inter-Services the deal, the Taliban
Intelligence had–achieved
(ISI) the Pakistan a keymilitary’s
goal: a firm date for
premier
A.Pakistan: Shoring Up Afghanistan’s Peace Process
“
Athe departure
failed
intelligence
Following The peace
the
of foreign
Costs
agency.
1989process 104forces
of
Soviet International
could
withdrawalin return for pledges to end ties with terrorist groups, including al-
sparkand all-out Isolation
the civilwar
civil war that inensued,
intervention
125 For Pakistan,
Qaeda,
Pakistan’s andstakesto enter in ainto
stable negotiations
Afghanistan over have a political
never settlement
been higher to the
as violenceconflict. escalates in that
Afghanistan commented thatrefugees
including thefailed
Trump into
attempts Pakistani
administration’s
at forging territory.
“new
warring of
the
countrydeal’s
Pakistan’s
and value
stakes
the
inlay
peace in
Afghanistanthe
processprospect
are risingof
set in
as aU.S.
train political
and NATO
in settlement
September
troops prepare
2020 that would,
to
remains by
leave. All-out
largely benefiting
war after its
deadlocked.
theTaliban
113
withdrawal
An
the
In
could
Afghan
Pakistani
mujahideen
push more
war through
perceptions,
factions.
Afghan refugees Yetdirect
a Taliban
the across
talks
pledges, the
with
attempt
such
border
the toTaliban,
as
and seizethe
after
strengthen
was
power Soviet“always
would
Pakistani be Pakistan’s
withdrawal, an undesirable
militants.
Planshould
to help
Islamabad
A”.outcome.
Afghans find
ratchet If athe
ally,
Well cement
aware
unravelling Pakistan’s
that any
for
could the over
Taliban’s
embolden Afghanistan.
return
power
militant (in facilitation
a
groups, manner that
particularly waswouldalsothe expected
not cast
Pakistani toup
Pakistan’s
Taliban
peaceful were internal
solution to forcibly dynamics
were oust
mere then,
the
rhetoric, as
Afghan now,
with determined
government,
Pakistan the would
they
choosing direction
instead likelyoftoitslose
backAfghanistan
much
handpickedof policy.
pressure
It
garner
on
U.S.
the
is in Pakistan’s Taliban
rewards.
to126
interest engage to in peace
persuade, talks. using pressure if need be, the Taliban shura tothebreak Afghan
the
Pakistan
Taliban,
international
proxies. as,
and once
threaten again, yet protector
another of
massivea pariah influxregime)of would
Afghan depend
refugees. on international
Islamabad has recognition,
been trying to
logjam in the peace talks by reducing violence and moderating demands for Islamic, likely Sunni of
Pakistan’s legitimacy preferred they gained
Afghan by declaring
partners first their
included willingness
Gulbuddin to seek a
Hekmatyar’spolitical settlement
predominantly
Pakistani
persuade
the
Pashtunconflict, policymakers
its
Hizb-e Afghan
all the
Islami. more now
Taliban so iffaced theythe
allies to
crack challenge
opt down of bringing
for a peacefully
violently the Taliban
negotiated
on former in from
political
enemies, the
settlement.
shut down cold. Its As early
failure
as
in the 2001
that
institutions endeavour Bonn
in which conference
would foreignstrain that its drew
governmentsties with up ahave roadmap
Washington
invested forand post-invasion
heavily Kabul. andWith roll Afghanistan,
the
back clock
the gains Pakistan
ticking thaton the had
might
Those harm
hopes Islamabad’s
as the withtalks,
began in concern
September, formadePakistani
little military
progress,
asked
deadline for thepulling
for Taliban’s outinclusion
U.S.past in
and twenty
NATO consultations
troops from onif Afghanistan’s
Afghanistan, constitutional
Pakistan shouldto and
redouble political its the
“
A settlement
women
leaders.
partly have
China,
because made would
over
Pakistan’s
of Kabul’s thealso
closest
foreign
politics, years.
partner,ofEven
but war alsoin
largely the Afghanistan
Taliban
probably
because do
prefers
the not
Ghani and
that might
manageIslamabad
government help
overthrow stabilise
work
and theto
restructuring.
efforts
As
Afghan to
Hekmatyar convince
government, Alostformerthe
ground
the senior
Talibanto
group’s Pakistani
tomilitary
Afghan scale diplomat
back
opponents,
push both said Pakistan
their
including
undermines attacks the hadtheir
and “pleaded
Tajik-dominated
Pakistan’s hopes with
aspirations
for the
Jamiat-e
the to U.S. to
reinstitute
insurgents’Islami,
produce
Taliban
include
a more
shura
the were
Taliban
stable equally Pakistan’s
outcome
inshifted
a Taliban
making
Pakistan’s
victorywestern
concessions.
consistent
bydid
It
effortsTaliban.
an not
to persuade
attempt ” the
help at
that monopolistic
U.S. the talks
to132bring the
rule.
their
the version
Pakistan
participation of Islamic
military
in internationally governance its support – so that
recognised to the
and the peacePashtun
largely
backed process
power-sharing may yetarrangements.
succeed.
97 Many present-day
A failed peace
commenced so processtocould spark all-out civil war in Afghanistan and a massive influx of refugees
Taliban
Taliban into
leaders theclosepolitical
and
the
commanders
U.S.
were appeared
students
election,
to bearadding
(talibs) fruit
in auncertainty
madrasas decaderun later,by
aswhen
two
to whether the Obama
factions of the
into Pakistani
Washington
Since taking power territory.
would stick Violence
with
in a contested the in Afghanistan
February
election 2020
in July would
deal. With
2018, andandalso spill
the over
insurgents
also
a stable majority continuing destabilising
inwithtothe rely
administration
Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam, signalled a its intention
Pakistani to
Pashtun political its
party, openness
led by to
Fazlur talkingRehman and
its
on conflict-prone
force to
parliament, 106 strengthen
Prime western
Ministertheir border
bargaining
Imran asKhanTalibanhand,
has gains empower
Pakistan’s
largely cededalready the Afghantense
decision-making insurgents’
relationship
with theforeign
and Ghani
Taliban.
Pakistan
Islamabad’s
Samiul has
Haq. inwho
supported
role
Haq, the Afghan
facilitating
headed peace
U.S.-Taliban
the Akora process,
negotiations
Khattak largely
madrasa because
hasin also
Khyber itsPakhtunkhwa
somewhatlong-time eased Taliban
tensions
province’sally can
with
Deobandi
government
policy militant
worsened allies. In
further.
114 the worst-case
Hoping to scenario,
salvage a
Pakistan takeover
has in
urged Kabul,
the Pakistan
Biden
use thetotalks
Washington.
Nowshera
the topas133
district, abrass.
road
As
hadthe to power
troop
particularly
Earlier
drawdown
governments,
withclose international
continues,
ties toheading
such
Taliban
as Nawaz
legitimacy
high-level
founder and Sharif’s
U.S.thecontacts,
Mullah
(2013-2018),
attendant
Mohammad economic
primarily Omar.
had 98
with
would
attempted face
administration the
to easedilemma
to build onof dealing
the
tensions withtoAfghanistan Doha withpeace its ally
process.
though That a regime
process
theoption
high command that
still would
exists, enjoy
and
still hedged U.S.scant and outside
its bets,Pakistani
support.
Pakistan’s It saw
military
leadership,
madrasa push
have financial
networks for
focusedwereonits preferred
also the country’s
a major source – the Taliban’s
roleofinPakistani
shoring up inclusion
the Afghan
Pashtun in
recruitspower-
peaceto
backing
efforts
either
On 7 to
July and
actively
2015, –
energise crucially
or it
tacitly
Pakistan –
continue,very
supporting
hosted little
but
the itthefaces
first new
Afghan
direct aid.and serious
insurgency.
115 Under
between Khan’s
the government,
Taliban and Afghan
sharing
process.
the Taliban arrangements
134cause.Responding 99 – whento questions at a Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing on 27 in
the Trump administration began pursuing a political settlement
government military leadership, includinga former the senior
deputy army
foreign officer said,
minister, “is solely responsible for
Afghanistan
April, Khalilzad as the
saidU.S. prepared
Pakistan hadto withdraw
been “supportive troops offrom
our the efforts to in
country. pressMurree;
the Taliban and toChinese
reduce
Afghan policy,
representatives and
also present. ministry
the A second is merely tasked with implementation”. 116 That said,
Islamabad’s
violence,
Once foreign to entertroops
ininto
facilitating
negotiations
leave Afghanistan,
February
with theround,
Western
2020 U.S.
government scheduled
patience of
agreement
with
for 31
Afghanistanwith July,
the country’s
was
the[and] aborted
Taliban to be
unending
and anafter
the
active
conflict,
the
the
Afghan high
subsequent
participant
command’s
presidential
and its quarrelling
peace
in peace talks,preferred
palace alsodisclosed
negotiations”.
factions,
option
knownHe
is likely to
for
asthat
added,
fade.
Afghanistan
theTaliban
intra-Afghan
however,
Time is of
is
leaderthat
the
in complete
Mullah
negotiations.
“Pakistan
essence
Omar has
if
alignment
hadadied
Pakistan special
is
with
to
Khan’s.
two responsibility
years earlier,
achieve the
Both
support
allegedly a indeal that would
given
“
Pakistan
objective its influence
ofwas one
a political over
of the Taliban.
three
settlement countriesthat … gives
We to appreciate
recognise
its Taliban what
the
allies Pakistan
Taliban’s
a road has
to done but
Islamic
legitimate we
Emirate
power are sharing
not
[and there after
by
wouldgiving give the the Taliban
Taliban a power-sharing
a pathway to role.
power, 117 A settlement
including the would
Quadrilateral also end
Dialogue decades (Pakistan,of war in
The
yet”. Biden
135 administration’s policy has changed the rules of the Afghanistan game for Afghans and
and prevents the Afghan conflict from undermining security at home.
Afghanistan
Afghanistan,
But in January and
the2021,might
U.S.when 2001]
andhelp China), provided
stabilise
President made Joe shelter
Pakistan’s
little
Biden to ...
conflict-prone
headway,
took over their
largely
the top leaders.
western
because
U.S. the
administration, ” Facilitating
borders.
insurgents the talks refused the
were toat
for the country’s neighbours. On 14 April, President Biden announced an unconditional
U.S.-led
talk
an
withdrawal Afghan
directly
impasse. toU.S.
The
of thepeaceAfghan
Taliban
forces process 11would
bygovernment.
continued toalso
September, relyThathelp
on mend
thedialogue,
violence
twentieth relations
moreover,
to strengthen
anniversarywithcame Washington.
of to
their thea terror
halt after
bargaining attacksthe U.S.
position;
that led
killed
Kabul,
U.S.
to the Taliban
too,
support,
U.S. military leader
appeared
including Mullah
unwilling
resumed in
intervention Akhtarto makeMohammed
military substantive
Afghanistan. assistance, Mansourcompromises.
The apullout in
top priority a drone
of U.S.for strike
Biden’s
and thealliedas he
decision,
Pakistani re-entered
troops announced
highis well under on
II Backdrop 108
II.
way andBackdrop
Pakistan
14 April
command, from
2021,
likely Iran
willto
to beincompleted
May 2016.
bewithdraw all on
contingent U.S.108
troops
during
that bybut
July, 11 the
September,
facilitation. 136 The even
prospects of aabsent
peace a political
negotiated
process, peacesettlement,
however, appear has
will notslim.
The
128peace
tightened process soon
timelines bore outa the predictions of howbefore it would thehelp Pakistan. In October 2018,
survive if the Talibanfor does getting peace
not reconsider process
its campaign moving to conquer conflict
territory, intensifies,
even if it is asjust
appearsshort
during
likely, Zalmay
in the Khalilzad’s wake.
withdrawal’s visit to (AtIslamabad,
the time a month
of publication, after he the was appointed
withdrawal U.S.set
looks special
to be
A.
of seizing Pakistan’s
power. If theAfghan Taliban keeps Proxies up its offensive, Pakistan will risk international opprobrium
representative
Yet the restructuring for Afghanistan
of the reconciliation,
Taliban shura followingPakistan releaseddeath,
Mansour’s Mullahwith Abdul Ghani Baradar,
successor a
completed even earlier,
should it continue to support the insurgents, by mid-July.) including by providing safe haven to theShaikh Taliban
Pakistan
co-founder
theby
Akhunzada of three
Taliban countries,
and
Sirajuddin othersHaqqani being Saudi
Omar’s deputy,
as one Arabia who
of his and
had the
been
principal United
detained
deputies,ArabinEmirates,Karachi
worked to
An
shura.earlier effort
Pakistan’s intervention U.S. in envoy Zalmay
and links to
with convince
the Ghani’s
Taliban government
predate the and the
1996
to recognise
since
when he had Islamic
reportedly Emirate,
reached established
Pakistan’s
to agree
a transitional
of its
The
Islamic
Haqqanis,
power-sharing
Emirate
particularly
by government
aSeeing
proposed itself
were
April
as
now
meeting
inheriting
integral
in
the Turkey, part
British
1996.
blessing.
the
118
Taliban
leadership. wasthe
allowed attemptto join
started Alliance,
– by
in the
Taliban’s
Qatarorstakeholders,12 by
political
Washington
on Tajiks,
office
Doha.
seek
2020, and
withmilitary
thenot 129
alongside
major regional
perceived
surprisingly
presence
Taliban
leadership gave
would andsought
the
of
Prime New
political
necessity Delhi’s
Minister office
include backing.
Imrangravitas
the After
it
Haqqanis
Khan’s had the
Pakistan and September
previously hence lacked
reduce
because
pressure attacks
of
government onhis in
standing
Pakistan the
have U.S.,
to within
cut its
Angered
Pakistan
Afghanistan that
is also the
as wellU.S.aware
falling had
within reneged
that its on the
conflict-torn
sphere of 1influence.
May pullout
Afghanistan’s It date
retains and
economicthis reluctant
view,viability to be
often and pressured
looking reconstruction
at openly,
pressure
What’s
the
ties Taliban from
new?
with extensive
repeatedly the Washington
shura.The fast-paced
lethalRecognising
emphasised insurgent prompted
the
Pakistan
aconference
political109 Byof foreign
militarymilitary
2021,
leadership’s
Sirajuddin amid
can endfuture President
stalled
predominant
Haqqani’s
conflict Pervez
peace
inyounger Musharraf
talks and
policymaking
rising
Pledging role,
the Taliban
requires
Afghanistan refused
as a “fifth to attend
international
province” any financial
that is aftersupport.
dependent on Afghanistan’s
In
onaaproposed
“benevolent “until
four-point
big all
plan
brother’s foreign
on wayAnas,
thetroops
good-will”. 94
to
the sever
insurgent
U.S. ties
keptthe with
threatens the
to October
efforts to ousted
facilitate thethe
had
support become
withdraw”.
forward for
for anaitmember
130 in
Afghanthe loop
Afghan-led of
peacetheas Taliban
peace talks
process, with
process, the
negotiating
they
Foreign Talibanhave team
Minister progressed.
also in Doha and
repeatedly
Qureshi, Visits
for was byengaging
denied
instance, top U.S.
backing
called officials,
with
any
on U.S.
party
outside to
Afghans
Taliban’s have
regime,
return historically
toPakistan
Kabul bristled
provided
shelter
power-sharing to their attitudes.
rahbari
arrangements shura, The
that Durand
the havebody Line,
composed
international moreover, ofbacking.
theircuts top
including
officials.
the
powers conflict.
to peaceYet envoy
“deepen the and Khalilzad
presence
sustain and
ofeconomic
the senior
Taliban’s military
engagementtop officers,
military with and accompanied
political
Afghanistan every
leadership
for its critical
on Pakistani
reconstruction juncture. and
through
leaders
101 The successive
territory
economic opposition
gives Islamabad
development”. politician a137direct said: role,“The and military
hence bigcommand
aleadership stake, was in the structures
intra-Afghan politicalparley. andthat
Themilitary
the
homeland.
– were Afghan
out of have
these long refused
recruit, raise
U.S.
Reactingwas subletting
sanctuary toPakistan
Biden’s gives Afghanistan
withdrawal the Taliban to them”. also reinforces
announcement, mistrust
Pakistan’s of Pakistani
foreign intentions among
office emphasised that the
border and staked claims to on contiguous Pakistani Pashtun-majority territories. 95 The dispute
Why
money doesand it matter?
conduct Should
attacks the
U.S. Afghan
and peace
aligned process
forces as continue
well as to sputter
Western-backed or altogether
Afghan fail,
C.
Afghan
troop
has
Facilitating
governing“coincides
withdrawal
marred bilateral
the
and opposition
relations.
Peace
with circles.
progress Process in the peace process”. Reportedly persuaded, or
talks once the
in Afghanistan
Taliban
Anxious gained
to ensure could
support that embolden
in 131
Pashtun-majority
the military alignedand with intervened
east.
102 tocounterparts,
remove hurdles,
again
Theamount resuming
Trump in Doha.
decision group’s
to hold leaders
direct have
talks notwith yetthe been convinced,
Taliban, however,
to
“
No
deepening
such
As as
foreign after of
insecurityinternational
President
soldiers inTrump
leave, Pakistan,
and
assistance
especially
abruptly
the insurgents called will
in off
appear
help
itstalks
tribal
bent
prevent
on areas
6
on
economic
alongforce
September
using the2019 to
meltdown
Afghan on
gain border.
the
power eve ifofthe
and an country
install
disclose
the U.S.
Since theirinthe
at war
least political
Afghanistan,
1970s, vision
Pakistan for Afghanistan,
presented has Pakistan
backed beyond
with Afghan
various vague
new generalities
opportunities
Islamist such
to
factions push as
as aandemand
for the
antidote fortoan
Taliban’s
expected
an Islamic deal.
system 122ofAt a news
government, returns
briefingIslamabadondo to January,
17 all-out
faces civil
concluding
renewed war.
pressure ”his visit
from to Washington,
Kabul Foreign
Islamic
inclusion
Pashtun government.
in governance
nationalism. Until
Toand gainthey begin
security
vital U.S. to
structures.
support, so, a Pakistan
genuine
110 In his negotiation
also 2017 South
provided cannot
Asiahaven
safe takeand
policy place.Washington
address,
and military
B.
Minister
to convince
President
Bringing
Shah theMahmood
Taliban the atTaliban Qureshi
the verysaid in he
least from
tohad reduce the
told Cold
Secretary
violence toofensure
State Mike that Pompeo:
fulfilled
support
What toDonald
Afghanhad
factions reach for
during
out playing
to the
Kabul a double
so-called
to reduce game,
mistrust. jihad.
Using from
Many
the
our
The promise.
Pakistan’s
U.S. and clout Thewith
other Taliban
major came tohave
the insurgents
donors thehas table.
declined
pledged Then you
as
to continuethey saidcontinue
the delegation
supporting to make the should
military
Afghan be gains
government in access
authoritative
massive
mujahideen
leaders
provided now and
by thehold then,
Taliban naming
prominent the
positions
Afghan
sanctuaries “safe
ruling
on havens
and
opposition
should
and powerful.
Afghanistan.
financially. Yet We
That nodid that”.
influence
amount 123
ofhas far
internationalfrom dissipated,
assistance however,
will help since
prevent Taliban
economic shurameltdown (leadership if the
At
As the
the same
Taliban
organisations”. time, Yet the
insurgency TrumpTaliban gained
also have
implied also
ground escalated
thatbeginning
the U.S.military
around
might attacks
2005,
successive
a political Afghan reportedly
settlement governments,of the
Though
press the earlier
reduce had
violence sought and to distance
negotiate themselves
a compromise from on Pakistan’s
council)
country
capturing
namely still
returns
Hamid operates
district tocentres
Karzai’s all-outout and of
civil
and Pakistani
threatening
Ashraf andhavens.
war,Ghani’s, aidprovincial Taliban
delivery
attributed will commanders
become
capitals,
its military
111 including in Afghanistan
increasingly
prowess those difficult
ringing
to Pakistani may in dispute
that If and
Kabul.
havens the
Afghan
India,
opting for
withthat included
neutrality
other in
Afghan “elements
thestakeholders.
1965 and of the 1971 Taliban”.
Indo-Pakistani Once wars, thethe Trump administration
Soviet-backed
but
peace will
scenario
Islamabad’s still
as
process follow
well. fails
active Even that
to if
make
logistical leadership’s
the parties
headway,
andtomaterial instructions.
reach
a new a peace
and
support. settlement
bloodier103 phase
The in which
of the
Afghanistan’s Taliban impose
civil war their
could
accepted
communist
Pakistan’s
thegovernment
top
Taliban’s
military
demand
andin Kabul
political
deal directly
drew closer
leaders towith
welcomed Newthem, Delhi
the asTaliban’s
bypassing
29 Islamabad
February
resurgence
the Afghan government,
sponsored
2020
also
U.S.-Taliban Afghanstrained
peace
version
ensue,
Pakistan’s of
with ultra-orthodox
potential
relations with Islam
consequences
the U.S. on governance,
for Pakistan’s
In 2011,toafter such support
security. will be in doubt. In November 2020,
Pakistan
insurgents. was quick to
96 respond positively U.S.an attack to
requests onfacilitate
the U.S. embassy the nascent in Kabul,
peace Admiral process.
deal,
donors and committed, in Prime Minister Khan’s words, Pakistan “to playing its role” in Haqqani it
ensuring
112 pledged
BRIEFING
Michael Mullen, 169 /$12 ASIAbillion

then 30 JUNE
chairman in civilianof theassistance
2021 Joint Chiefs forofAfghanistan,
Staff, called but the many countries conditioned
Taliban-aligned
I. Overview
“holds
the funds
network and “aon succeeds”.
progressarm”
veritable in124 the ofThrough
peace the and
talks
Inter-Services deal, the Taliban
respect
Intelligence for the had
(ISI) –achieved
rule theof law,
Pakistan a keymilitary’s
human goal:
rights a firm
and date
premiergender for
“
Athe departure
equality.
A.failed
intelligence
Following The Theagency.
peace
the
of foreign
European
Costs
1989process of
Soviet
forces
104Union
International
could
withdrawalin return
(EU)
spark made for
the
all-out
and
pledges
largest
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the civilwar
civil
to
war end ties
pledge
that inat withbillion
$1.4
Afghanistan
ensued,
terrorist
Pakistani
butandgroups,
tied a it including
to
massive
intervention
125
a peace al-
ininflux of
Qaeda,
settlement
Pakistan’s andstakes to enter
based onainto
in stable negotiations
republican andTrump
Afghanistan over
democratichave a politicalprinciples.
never settlement
been 138 Should
higher to the
as violenceconflict.
the Taliban
escalates optFor
in forPakistan,
that an all-
A U.S. analyst
Afghanistan commented
continued, that
including refugees
the failed into
attempts Pakistani
administration’sat forging territory.
“new
warring of
the
out
countrydeal’s
Pakistan’s
military and value
stakes in
takeover,
the lay
peace in
Afghanistan the
the
process prospect
EU are as rising
setwellin of
asas a
train political
U.S. and
individual
in
NATO settlement
September
troops
Western 2020 that
prepare
countries
remainswould,
to leave.
would by
largely benefiting
All-out shunwar after
the
deadlocked. its
the
new 113 Taliban
withdrawal
regime
An
the
In
could
Afghan
Pakistani
mujahideen
push more
war through
perceptions,
factions.
Afghan refugees Yetdirecta Taliban
the across
talks
pledges, the
with
attempt
such
border
the toTaliban,
as
and seizethe
after
strengthen powerwas
Soviet“always
would
militants.
Planshould
to help
Islamabad
A”.outcome.
Afghans ratchetfind If athe
ally,
and
Well cement
likely
aware
unravelling levy Pakistan’s
that sanctions
any
against
for
could the over
it.
Taliban’s
embolden 139Afghanistan.
return
power
militant (in afacilitation
groups, manner that
particularly waswouldalsothe expected
not cast
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Pakistan’s
Taliban
were oust
mere then,
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rhetoric, as
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with determined
government,
Pakistan the would
they
choosing direction
backAfghanistan
much
pressure
It
garner
on
is in Pakistan’s
U.S.
the Taliban
rewards.
to126
the
Pakistan
Taliban,
international
proxies. as,
and once
threaten again, yet protector
another of
massivea pariah influx regime)of would
Afghan depend
refugees. on international
Islamabad has recognition,
been trying to
logjam in the peace talks by reducing violence and moderating demands for Islamic, likely Sunni of
Pakistan’s legitimacy preferred they gained
Afghan by declaring
partners first their
included willingness
Gulbuddin to seek a
Hekmatyar’spolitical settlement
predominantly
Pakistani
persuade
the
Pashtunconflict, policymakers
its
Hizb-e Afghan
all the
Islami. Taliban
more now so iffaced theythe
allies to
crack challenge
opt for a peacefully
down of bringing
violently the Taliban
negotiated
on former in from
political
enemies, the
settlement.
shut down cold. Its As early
failure
B.
as
in the 2001
that
institutionsEmboldening
endeavour Bonn
in which conference
would foreign Homegrown
strain that its drew
governmentsties with up ahaveMilitants
roadmap
Washingtoninvested forand post-invasion
heavily Kabul. andWith roll Afghanistan,
the
back clock
the gains Pakistan
might harm
Those hopes Islamabad’s
as the withtalks,
began in concern
September, formadePakistani
little military
progress,
asked
deadline for thepulling
for Taliban’s outinclusion
U.S.past in
and twenty
NATO consultations
troops from onif Afghanistan’s
Afghanistan, constitutional
Pakistan shouldto and
redouble political its the
“
A settlement
women
leaders.
partly have
China,
because made would
over
Pakistan’s
closest
foreign
politics, years.
partner,
butofEvenwar alsoin
largely the Afghanistan
Taliban
probably
because do
prefers
the not
Ghani and
that might
manageIslamabad
government help
overthrow
work
and stabilise
to
the
restructuring.
efforts
If
As the to
Taliban
Hekmatyar
Afghan convince
government, Alost former
increases the
ground
the senior
Taliban
its military
to
group’s Pakistani
tomilitary
Afghan scale
footprint diplomat
back
opponents,
push both said
their
onundermines
the ground,
including Pakistan
attacks theits hadtheir
and
prowess “pleaded
Tajik-dominated
Pakistan’s hopesmay with
aspirations
further
for the
Jamiat-e
the to U.S.
embolden
insurgents’ to
reinstitute
Islami,
produceshura
Taliban
include
a more
the were
Taliban
stable equally
in
Pakistan’s
outcome
a Taliban
making
Pakistan’s
victorywestern
concessions.
consistent
efforts
bydid
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to persuade
attempt ” the
help at
that monopolistic
U.S. the to talks
bring the
rule.
their
Pakistani
the version
Pakistan
participation of
militants. Islamic
military
in Ashifted
internationally governance
retired general
its support – said:
recognised so that
to “The
the
and the peacePashtun
space
largely
backed process
for
power-sharing may
the Taliban’s
Taliban. yetarrangements.
succeed.
natural
97 Many allies –132Pashtun
present-day
A failed peace
commenced soprocess
close tocould
the spark
U.S. all-out civil
presidential war in Afghanistan
election, and a massive influx of refugees
Taliban
militantsinto
Taliban andthe
leaders Sunni political
and sectarian
commanders mainstream outfitswere –appeared
is alreadyto
students bearadding
expanding
(talibs) fruit
in auncertainty
in
madrasas decade
Afghanistan.
runlater,by
aswhen
to whether
twoThose the
factionsrisksObama would
of the
into
Since Pakistani
Washington taking territory.
would
power stick
in a Violence
with
contested the in Afghanistan
February
election 2020
in July would
deal.
2018, Withalso
and spill
the over
insurgents
lacking a into
stable Pakistan,
also continuing
majority destabilising
in totherely
administration
increase
Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam, signalled
even further ifaKabul its intention
Pakistani wereDeobandi to leave
to fall to the Afghanistan
Taliban”.
Pashtun political and
140 party, its openness
A former led senior
by to
Fazlur talking with
counter-terrorism
Rehman and
its
on conflict-prone
force to
parliament, strengthen
Prime western
Minister their border
bargaining
Imran asKhanTalibanhand,
has gains empower
Pakistan’s
largely ceded alreadythe Afghan
decision-makingtense insurgents’
relationship Pakistani
with theforeign
Ghani
Taliban.
Pakistan
official likewise
Islamabad’s
Samiul Haq.
106
has warned:
supported
role
Haq, inwho the
facilitating
headed Afghan
“Pakistani peace
sectarian
U.S.-Taliban
the Akora process,and madrasa
negotiations
Khattak largely
other because
militants
hasin also
Khyber will
somewhatbe theon
itsPakhtunkhwa
long-time security
ultimate
eased Taliban and
ally
beneficiaries
tensions
province’s can
with
Deobandi
government
policy militant
worsened allies. In
further.
114 the worst-case
Hoping to scenario,
salvage a
Pakistan takeover
has in
urged Kabul,
the Pakistan
Biden
use thetotalks
of Taliban
Washington.
Nowshera
thestatetop
as133
district,
brass.
acapture.
road
As
hadthe to power
Instead
troop
particularly
Earlierwith governments,
of close
drawdown international
being acontinues,
ties strategic
toheading
such
Talibanlegitimacy
asset, as Nawaz
high-level theand
founder
Sharif’s
Taliban
U.S.thecontacts,
Mullah will (2013-2018),
attendant become
Mohammad economic
primarily aOmar. had 98
strategic
with
would
attempted face
administration the
to easedilemma
to build
tensions onof dealing
the
with Doha withpeace
Afghanistan its ally
process.
though That
the a regime
process
high that
still
command would
exists, still enjoy
and
hedged U.S.scant and
its outside
Pakistani
bets,
support. It
threat to Pakistan”.
Pakistan’s saw
military
141
leadership,
madrasa to push
have financial
networks for
focusedwereonits preferred
also the country’s
a major option
roleofinPakistani
the Afghan
Pashtun in
recruits power-
peaceto
backing
efforts
either
On 7 to
July and
actively
2015, –
energise crucially
or it
tacitly
Pakistan –
continue, very
supporting
hosted little
but
the itthefaces
first new
Afghan
direct aid.and serious
insurgency.
115 Under
between Khan’s
the government,
Taliban and Afghan
sharing
process.
the Taliban arrangements
134cause.Responding 99 – whento questions at a Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing on 27 in
the Trump administration began pursuing a political settlement
government military leadership, includinga former the senior
deputy army
foreign officer said,
minister, “is solely responsible for
Afghanistan
saidU.S. prepared
Pakistan hadto withdraw
been “supportive troops offromour the efforts to in
country. pressMurree;
the Taliban and toChinese
reduce
Afghan
representativespolicy, and
rolewere the alsoforeign
present. ministry
the A second is merelyround, tasked
scheduled with implementation”.
forabout
31 July, was aborted116 That said,
Islamabad’s
Pakistan
violence,
Once foreign
civilian
to entertroops
in
and facilitating
into military
leavenegotiations leaders
Afghanistan,
February
withare the
Western
2020
particularly
government U.S.
patience of
agreement
concerned
with Afghanistan with
the country’s
the[and]Taliban
Taliban’s
to be
unending
andanafter
the
apparent
active
conflict,
the
the
Afghan high
subsequent
insistence
participant
command’s
presidential
and its quarrelling
on peace
in replacing
peace
preferred
palace
talks,
factions,
alsodisclosed
the
negotiations”.
option
knownHe
post-Bonn
is likely to
for
asthat Afghanistan
theTaliban
intra-Afghan
republican
added,
fade. however,
Time
order,
is of
is
leaderthat
the
in complete
Mullah
negotiations.
including
“Pakistan
essence
Omar alignment
the has
if
hadadied
2004
Pakistan
with
constitution,
special
is to
Khan’s.
two responsibility
years with
achieve
Both
earlier,
the
support
allegedly
governance a indeal thaton
a Pakistani
based would protect
hospital.
sharia informed Pakistan’s
107 Subsequent interests in ideology.
Pakistani and efforts
influence at
142 aover Afghanistan,
given
“
Pakistan
objective its influence
was
of one
a political over
of the Taliban.
three
settlement countriesthat …by We their
to
gives
Deobandi
appreciate
recognise
its Taliban what
the
allies Pakistan
Taliban’s
a road has
to
They
donebelieve
Islamic
legitimate but we
Emirate
power
that the there
are sharing
not
[and after
by giving
would give thethe Taliban
a pathway to role.
including the would
imposition
The
yet”. Biden in Afghanistan ofpolicy
135 administration’s Sunnihas Hanafichanged Islamic the jurisprudence
rules of the as state law,
Afghanistan including
game for for theand
Afghans
and prevents the Afghan 2001] conflict from undermining
provided shelter to ... security
their at
top home.
Afghanistan
Afghanistan,
But in January
minority
for the Afghan
country’s and
the2021, might
U.S.when
Shia
neighbours.and help
population, stabilise
China),
President
On 14 made
could Pakistan’s
Joe
April, little
Biden
encourage
President conflict-prone
headway,
took over
Islamists
Biden largely
the U.S.
to
announced western
because
renew borders.
the
administration,
demands
an insurgents
forthe
unconditional refused
talks
similar the
were
laws toatat
U.S.-led
talk
an
home, directly
impasse.
withdrawal Afghan
fuelling oftoU.S.
The thepeace
sectarianAfghan
Taliban
forces process
tensions11would
bygovernment.
continued intoaalso
September, relyThat
countryhelp
on mend
thedialogue,
violence
that
twentiethhas relations
moreover,
to
the strengthen
second
anniversary withcame Washington.
of to
their
largest thea terror
Shiahaltpopulation
bargaining after
attacksthe U.S.
position; in the
that led
killed
Kabul,
world
U.S.
to the Taliban
too,
after
support, Iran.
appeared
including 143 Mullah
unwilling
Sectarian Akhtar
resumedPakistani
intervention to makeMohammed
military
in substantive
Afghanistan. SunnisThe
assistance, Mansour
couldcompromises. in
feelpriority
apullout
top a drone
empowered
of U.S.for strike
Biden’s
and the by as he
the Taliban’s
Pakistani
allied troops announced
high return
is well under on
to
II Backdrop 108
II.
power
way andBackdrop
Pakistan
14 April
and
command, from
2021,
likely Iran
willto
might
to incompleted
even
be May
seek2016.
bewithdraw all
contingenttheU.S.108
troops
movement’s
during
on that bybut
July, 11 the
September,
backing,
facilitation. theyeven
asThe
136
prospects of aabsent
have
peace in theapast.
political
negotiated
process, 144 settlement,
peace
however, According
appear has
to
will notslim.
The
128peace
tightened
some security process
timelinessources, soonfor an bore
getting outa the
expansion peace predictions
of process
Taliban of howover
moving
control it would
before thehelp
Afghan Pakistan.
conflict
territory In October
intensifies,
already asjust 2018,
appears
survive if the Taliban does not reconsider its campaign to conquer territory, even if it benefits
is short
during
likely, Zalmay
in the Khalilzad’s
withdrawal’s visit
wake. to(At Islamabad,
the time a
of month
publication, after he
the was appointed
withdrawal U.S.
looks special
set to be
A.
likeminded
of seizing Pakistan’s Pakistani
power. If the Afghan
groups.
Taliban A keepsProxies
former up senior security Pakistan
its offensive, official, for willexample, said: “Theopprobrium
risk international imposition
representative
Yet the
completed
of the Taliban’srestructuring
even for Afghanistan
earlier,
preferred of bythe reconciliation,
Taliban
mid-July.)
version shura
of Deobandiincluding Pakistan
following released
Mansour’s
Islam in large Mullah
death,
parts of safe withAbdul
Afghanistan Ghani
successor Baradar,
Shaikh a
should it continue to support the insurgents, by providing haven toisthe boosting
Taliban
Pakistan
co-founder
theby
Akhunzada of three
Taliban countries,
and
145 Sirajuddin
othersHaqqani being Saudi
Omar’s deputy,
as one Arabia who
of his and
had the
been
principal United
detained
deputies,ArabinEmirates,Karachi
worked to
An
shura.earlierDeobandi
Pakistani
Pakistan’s effort
intervention U.S. envoy
militants”.
in Zalmay
and links to
with convince
the Ghani’s
Taliban government
predate the and the
1996
to recognise
since
when he had Islamic
reportedly Emirate,
reached established
Pakistan’s
to agree
a transitional
of its
The
Islamic
Haqqanis,
power-sharing
Emirate
particularly
by government
aSeeing
proposed itself
were
April
as
now
meeting
inheriting
integral
in
the Turkey, part
British
1996.
blessing.
the
118
Taliban
leadership. wasthe
allowed attempt to join
started Alliance,
– by
in the
Taliban’s
Qatarorstakeholders,12 by
political
Washington
on Tajiks,
office
seekDoha.
2020, and
withmilitary
thenot 129
alongside
major regional
perceived
surprisingly
presence
Taliban
leadership gave
would andsought
the
of
Prime New
political
necessity Delhi’s
Minister office
include backing.
Imrangravitas
the After
it
Haqqanis
Khan’s had the
Pakistanand September
previously hence lacked
reduce
because
pressure attacks
of
government onhis in
standing
Pakistan the
have U.S.,
to within
cut its
An escalation
Angered
Pakistan
Afghanistan that
is also as offalling
the Afghanistan’s
U.S.aware
well had
within reneged
that itscivil
sphereonwar
conflict-torn the could
of also
1influence.
May destabilise
pullout
retains Pakistan’s
and
view, tribal
viability
oftento be belt.
and Militants
pressured
at from
openly,
pressure
What’s
the
ties Taliban from
new?
with extensive
repeatedly the Washington
shura.The
emphasised fast-paced
lethalRecognising
insurgent prompted
the
Pakistan
aconference
political109 By of foreignmilitary
military
2021,
leadership’s
Sirajuddin
can amid President
endfuture stalled
predominant
Haqqani’s
conflict Pervez
peace
younger
informed Musharraf
talks and
policymaking
risingAnas,
Pledging role,
the Tehreek-e-Taliban
Taliban
requires
Afghanistan refused
as a “fifth Pakistan
to attend
international
province” any (Taliban
financial
that Movement
is after support.
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on aaPakistan,
Afghanistan’s proposed
“benevolent or TTP),“until
four-point
big all
plan
brother’s in
foreign
on 2007
thetroops
good-will”. from
way 94
to
the sever
insurgent
U.S. ties
keptthe with
threatens the
to October
efforts to ousted
facilitate thethe
had
support
various become
withdraw”.
forward for
militant
for anaitmember
130 in the loop
Afghan-led
factions
Afghan of the
with
peace as Taliban
peace talks
the
process, with
process,
goal ofthe
negotiating
Foreignthey Taliban
have
overthrowing team
Minister progressed.
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repeatedly
Qureshi,Pakistani Visits
and
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denied top
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instance, U.S.
backing
called officials,
with
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are on U.S.
party
already
outside to
Afghans
Taliban’s have
regime,
return historically
toPakistan
Kabul bristled
provided
shelter
power-sharing to their attitudes.
rahbari
that Durand
the havebody Line,
composed
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including
officials.
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regrouping
powers to peace
inYet
“deepen envoy
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border and Khalilzad
presence
areas
sustain – the and
ofeconomic
the
former senior
Taliban’s military
Federally
engagementtop officers,
military
Administered
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political
AfghanistanTribal Areas
for every
leadership
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oninPakistani
reconstruction the and
through
leaders
101 The successive
territory
country’s
economic opposition
gives
north Islamabad
development”. west politician a137
and adjacent direct said: role,“The
regions and military
ofhenceBalochistan bigcommand
aleadership stake,
to was
thein the structures
under
south. the–impression
intra-Afghan
146 political
Militant parley. andthat
attacks Themilitary
the
in the
homeland.
– were Afghan
out of have
these long refused
recruit, raise
U.S.
Reacting
tribal was
sanctuary belt, subletting
toPakistan
Biden’s
including Afghanistan
gives
withdrawal
several the Talibanto them”.
announcement,
launched from also reinforces mistrust
Pakistan’s
acrossPashtun-majority of
foreign
the Afghan border, Pakistani
office intentions
emphasised
have killed95 scores among
that the
border
Why
money and
doesand staked
it matter?
conduct claims Should
attacks to on contiguous
the
U.S. Afghan
and Pakistani
peaceforces
aligned process continue
asprocess”. toterritories.
well as Western-backed sputter or altogether Afghan Theof security
dispute
fail,
C.
Afghan
troop
personnel
has
Facilitating
governing
withdrawal
marredinbilateral
and
“coincides
2021. relations. 147 the
opposition Peace
with circles.
progress Process in the peace Reportedly persuaded, or
Islamabad’s
governments. relations
Aided also withbyKabul and Washington
talks once the
in Afghanistan
Taliban
Anxious gained
to ensure could
in 131
Pashtun-majority
the military alignedand with intervened
east.
102 tocounterparts,
remove hurdles,
again
Theamount resuming
Trump in Doha.
decision group’sto hold leaders
direct have
talks not
with yetthe been convinced,
Taliban, however,
to
“
No
deepening
such
As as
foreign after of
insecurityinternational
President
soldiers inTrump
leave, Pakistan,
and
assistance
abruptly
the especially
insurgents called will
in off
appear
help
itstalks
tribal
bent
prevent
on areas
6
on
economic
alongforce
September
to
meltdown
on
gain border.
the
power eve ifofthe
and an country
install
Since
disclose
the U.S.
Since the
at war Taliban’s
their
least political
inthe ouster
Afghanistan,
1970s, vision in presented
Pakistan 2001, hassome
for Afghanistan, Pakistani
Pakistan
backed beyond
with
various Talibanvague
new
Afghan have
opportunities foughtfactions
generalities
Islamist alongside
such
to push as
as forand
aan demand
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antidote fortoan
Taliban’s
expected
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government, returns
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17 all-out
January,
faces civil
concluding
renewed war.
pressure ”hisWestern
visit
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recruits
Islamic
inclusion
Pashtun to intheir
government. Afghan
governance
nationalism. Tocounterparts
Until and
gain they begin
security
vital U.S. in
to the
do
structures.
genuine
110 jihad
In his against
negotiation
also 2017 South
provided Asiaforces
cannot
safe takeand
policy
haven and
place.Washington
the
address,
and military
B.
Minister
to convinceBringing
Western-backed
President
Shah theMahmoodTaliban
Afghanthe atgovernment.
Taliban
Qureshi
the verysaid in he
least from
148 tohad reduce the
told
Pakistani Cold
Secretary
violence
militants toofensure
State Mike
fleeing fromPompeo:
that negotiations
Pakistani “We fulfilled
continue.
military
support
What toDonald
Afghan
done? had
Islamabad criticised
factions reach for
during
out playing
to the
Kabul a double
so-called
to reduce game,
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operations clout The
thewith
other
inleaders Taliban
major
tribal thebelt came
insurgents
donorshave tohavethehas
long table.declined
pledged
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as they
toincontinue saidcontinue
Afghanistan the delegation
supporting andto make
used should
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Afghan inbe authoritative
gains
government
remote inborder
massive
mujahideen
provided now and
by thehold then,
Taliban naming
prominent the
positions
Afghan
sanctuaries “safe
ruling
on havens
and
its the to
opposition
territory, terrorist
Pakistan circles.
should
and powerful.
Afghanistan.
financially. Yet We
That did that”.
influence
nocross-border
amount 123
ofhas far
international from dissipated,
assistance however,
willaccused
help since
prevent Taliban
At the
areas
As the same
to
organisations”. conduct
Taliban time, Yet the
also have
attacks.
implied also
ground escalated
149
that Pakistan
beginning
the U.S.military
has
around
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2005,
Afghan
successive
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political Afghan reportedly
settlement and India
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Though
press the earlier
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violence sought and to distance
negotiate themselves
a compromise from on Pakistan’s
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country
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returns operates
district
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Hamid tocentres
Karzai’s all-outout
militants, and of
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and Pakistani
threatening
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Ashraf andhavens.
war,Ghani’s, aidprovincial Taliban
delivery inwill commanders
become
capitals, including in
increasingly Afghanistan
those intomay
difficult
ringing in dispute
that If and
Kabul. the
Afghan
India,
opting for
withthat included
neutrality
other in
Afghan 1965 from
“elements
thestakeholders. andof the bases
attributed
1971 Taliban”. Afghanistan,
its
Indo-Pakistani military
111 Once to
wars, stage
prowess
the theTrump raids
to Pakistani Pakistan.
administration
Soviet-backed havens
but
peace
150 will
scenario
Islamabad’s still
as
process
Yet the follow
well. fails
thegovernment
Pakistani
active Even that
to if
make
the
military parties
headway,
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well instructions.
reach
a new a peace
and settlement
bloodier103 phase in which
of the
civil war their
could
accepted
communist Taliban’s demand
in Kabul deal aware
drew support.
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billion Prime
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settlement
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demands, negotiations
republican the and
Afghan over
democratic
Talibana political
principles.
have settlement
yet to 138 Should
deny to the
Pakistani conflict.
the Taliban For
opt forPakistan,
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Pakistan’s
A U.S. analyst
Afghanistan stakes in
commented
continued, stable Afghanistan
that
including refugees
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113 An
the
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could
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mujahideen
push more
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Taliban’s
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much
pressure
It
garner
on
is in Pakistan’s
U.S.
the Taliban
rewards.
to126
the
governments,
Pakistan
Taliban,
international
proxies. as,
and once
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threaten
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refugees.
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Islamabad convince
international has the
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recognition,
trying to
logjam in the peace talks by reducing violence and moderating 152 demands for Islamic, likely Sunni of
to seek a
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leadership
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persuade
the
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roadmap
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Kabul. and rejoined
With
roll the
back the
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clock
theTTP, gainsenhancing
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might harm
Those hopes Islamabad’s
as the Dohawithtalks, Washington which153 – a grave
began in concern
September, formadePakistanilittle military
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Taliban’s tooutattack
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and in
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consultations
troops from on Aif Pakistani
Afghanistan’s
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constitutional
Pakistan editorial
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women
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over
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Taliban
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to
group’s Afghan called
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opponents,push Islamabad
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their
onundermines
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include
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a Taliban
making victorywestern
concessions. followed 127 borders.
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that monopolistic
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Pakistan
participation of
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recognised so that the
to “The
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space
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process
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Taliban’s
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succeed.
natural
97 Many to
U.S.
allies use to space
–132 bringunder
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commenced so process
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their
Taliban
militants
Taliban control
intoandthe
leaders will
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notcommanders
political tolerated”.
sectarian mainstream presidential
outfits were
154
–appeared
is alreadyto
students
election, bearadding
expanding
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Afghanistan.
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aswhento whether
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election 2020
in July would
deal.
2018, Withalso
and spill
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a into
stable Pakistan,
also continuing
in totherely
administration
increase
Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam, signalled
even further ifaKabul its intention
Taliban”.
Pashtun political and
140 party, its openness
A former led senior
by to
Fazlur talking with
counter-terrorism
Rehman and
its
on conflict-prone
force to
parliament, strengthen
Prime western
Minister their border
bargaining
Imran as KhanTaliban hand,
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largely ceded alreadythe Afghan
decision-makingtense insurgents’
with theforeign
Ghani
Taliban.
Pakistan
official likewise
Islamabad’s
Samiul Haq.
106
has warned:
supported
role
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sectarian
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policy militant
worsened allies. In
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114 the worst-case
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Biden
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Taliban
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Mohammad Pakistan
economic
primarily aOmar. hadwants
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would
attempted
explicit face
administration the
to
assurances easedilemma
to build
tensions
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insurgents withpeace
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its
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bets, on
support.
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Pakistan’s and
saw
military
Deobandi
–
an
crucially
opportunity
141
leadership,
madrasa
– very
to push
have financial
networks
little focusedfor
wereonits preferred
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aid.the country’s
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roleofinPakistani
the Afghan
Pashtun in
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peacetothe
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either to energise
actively or it
tacitly continue, but it faces new and serious challenges.
115
99 – supporting the Afghan insurgency. Under Khan’s government,
territory
On 7Taliban
July they
2015, control.
Pakistan 155 hosted
sharing
process.
the arrangements
134 Responding
cause. whentoNotwithstanding
the the
questions firstat
Trump direct the
administration
a Senate support
formal Foreign the
contacts
began Taliban
Relations between
pursuing receives
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Committee from
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toour
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minister, “is solely
militants responsible for
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said U.S. prepared
Pakistan hadto beenwithdraw “supportive troops offrom the
efforts to in
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U.S. often
the Taliban and
acknowledgedfor years
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reduce
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fought policy,
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representatives and
rolewere the
Afghan alsoforeign
Taliban
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theforces
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Islamabad’s
Pakistan
violence, civilian
to enter in
and
intofacilitating
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February share
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2020
particularly
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agreement
concerned The
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Taliban’s andanafterrejection
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Once foreign troops leave Afghanistan, Western patience of with Afghanistan
the country’s to be
unending active
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the high
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Afghan
subsequent
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participant
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presidential
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option
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and efforts
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a
allies.
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142
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to
negotiated
They
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legitimate but we
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minority
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China),
President
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tensions
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position; in the
that led
killed
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world
U.S.
to the Taliban
too,
after
support, Iran.
appeared
including 143 Mullah
unwilling
Sectarian Akhtar
resumedPakistani
intervention to makeMohammed
military
in substantive
Afghanistan. SunnisThe
assistance, Mansour
couldcompromises. in a
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apullout
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empowered
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Biden’s
and the by as he
the Taliban’s
Pakistani
allied troops announced
high return
is well under on
to
II Backdrop 108
II.
14
power
way andBackdrop
Pakistan
TheApril
and
command, from
2021,
likely
Afghan willIran
to
might
to
peace beincompleted
even May
bewithdraw 2016.
all
seekhad
contingent
process theU.S.
on
108
troops
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during
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given bybut
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September,
backing,
facilitation.
Pakistan asThe
136 they
prospects
chance to even
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ofits
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reset in theapast.
political
negotiated
process,
troubled 144 settlement,
peace
however,
relationsAccording
appear
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to
slim.
Kabul.
The peace timelines
tightened
some process soonfor bore
getting outa the peace predictions
of process of howover
moving it would
before thehelp Pakistan.
conflict In October
intensifies, asmilitary2018,
appears
thesecurity
In128
survive if the Taliban
run-up sources,
to intra-Afghan an
does expansion
notdialogue,
reconsider Taliban
and itssince control
campaign it began, to Afghan
conquer
Pakistan’s territory
territory,
top political already
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wake. to(At Islamabad,
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of month
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looks special
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Taliban
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should
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ease border version tensions.of Deobandi
the insurgents, 156 Yet Islam
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145 Sirajuddin
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militants”.
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1996.
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Since top The TalibanTaliban’s
118
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started Alliance,
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2020, and
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perceived
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Taliban
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standing
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Angered
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2021,
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forward
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chief role,“The
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killed
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that 147 the
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with circles.
progress Process in the peace
restoration of the Emirate or dictatorship by the Taliban is not in anybody’s Reportedly persuaded, or
Islamabad’s
the predation of 158Kabul’s would newrejoin sour.
rulersFurther andpeace instability
abuses by foreign or Taliban gains
pressured, by Pakistan,
interest in the region, especially the Taliban have since
Pakistan”. agreed
Ghanitoand other the anti-Taliban process, withforces,
stakeholders talks will, the
once
in Afghanistan
Taliban
Anxious gained
to ensure could
in 131
Pashtun-majority
the military aligned and with intervened
east.
102 tocounterparts,
remove hurdles,
again
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however, resuming
Trump judge in Doha.
administration’s
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Pashtun to intheir
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provided Asiaforces
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place. Washington
the
address,
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to convince Bringing
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Taliban
Qureshi
the verysaid in he
least from
told
Pakistani Cold
Secretary
violence
State Mike
fleeing fromPompeo:
that negotiations
continue.
military
support
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should various be Trump
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on havens
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and powerful.
Afghanistan.
financially. Yet We
That did that”.
influence
nocross-border
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149
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aid
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conflict that centres
Karzai’smilitants,
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Ashraf
“elements Ghani’s, fromofprovincial
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attributed
the capitals,
in Afghanistan,
Taliban”. its 111military including
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havens If and
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India,
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refugees other at in
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understand that wars,
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process follow
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Pakistani
active Even that
to if
make
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reach
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and settlement
bloodier
103 phase in which
of the
civil war their
could
accepted
in Kabul deal aware
drew support.
directly
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doubt. U.S.-Taliban
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insurgents. was quick Pashtun
96 to withrespond theDeobandi
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requests to theirU.S.
onfacilitate
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peaceA security
Admiral
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donors
BRIEFING
official
Michael and committed,
pledged 169 /$12ASIA in
billion Prime
30 JUNE in Minister
civilian
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151 “to playing
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countries conditioned Haqqani it
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112 said: Mullen, “They then are two
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“holds
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Inter-Services the and
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premier gender for
“
AthePakistan: Shoring Up Afghanistan’s Peace Process
departure
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peacethe
of foreign
European
Costs1989 process of
Soviet
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104Union
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spark made for
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civil
to
war end ties
pledge
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Afghanistan
ensued,
terrorist
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butandgroups,
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to
massive
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125
a peace al-
ininflux of
Qaeda,
settlement
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Pakistanito enter
based on ainto
republican
demands, negotiations
the and
Afghan over
democratic
Talibana political principles.
have settlement
yet to 138 Should
deny to the
Pakistani conflict.
the Taliban optFor forPakistan,
an all-
Pakistan’s
A U.S. analyst
Afghanistan stakes in
commented
continued, stable Afghanistan
that
including refugees
the Trump
failed have
into never
Pakistani
administration’s
attempts at been
forging higher
territory.
“new
political as
plan violence
” B”, aTaliban
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out
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and value
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EU are as
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asas
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troops
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would by
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to after
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deadlocked. its
the
new Taliban
withdrawal
regime
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113 An
the
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could
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mujahideen
push more
war through
perceptions,
factions.
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refugees athe
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that
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to path
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against
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for
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over
it.
diplomat
Taliban’s
embolden 139 border
Afghanistan.
with
return
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with
close
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Pakistan’s
links
power
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(in several
a
groups,
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choosing direction
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much
pressure
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relations.
garner
on
is in Pakistan’s
U.S.
the Taliban
According
rewards.
to
interestto engage
126 the in peace
toPakistani
persuade, talks. using
military, pressure
the fence if construction,
need be, the Taliban
which shura
began tothe
in break
2017, Afghan
isthe
governments,
Pakistan
Taliban,
international
proxies. as,
and once
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threaten
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preferred “The
protector
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gained
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by military
pariah influx
declaring
partners has
regime)
first of tried
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Afghan
their
included but has
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refugees.
willingness
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toon to
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seek convince
international
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political the
been Taliban
recognition,
trying
settlement
predominantly to
logjam
aimed inpreventing
at the peace talks by reducing
cross-border movement violenceofand moderating
terrorists, as
152 are demands
the 843 for Islamic,
planned likelyposts,
frontier Sunni of
leadership
Pakistani
persuade
the
Pashtunconflict, itstoall
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policymakers
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for a peacefully
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the
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failure
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insists are inside Indefinitely
Pakistan’s stalled
territory. negotiations
160 Yet Pakistani would heighten
and Afghantensions forces with have Kabulclashed and
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splinter
as
in the 2001
that
institutions Emboldening
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in whichbased
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would mainly
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drew
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Kabul. and rejoined
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roll the
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over harm
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former Dohawith
FATA Washington
talks,
and which
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Pakhtunkhwa Pakistani
regions little military
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inclusion
U.S.past Pakistani
and in
NATO forces.
consultations
Afghanistan’s
Afghanistan, newspaperconstitutional
Pakistan editorial
shouldto and that
redouble decried
political its the
“
A settlement
women
leaders.
partly
Afghan have
China,
because
border. made would
over
Pakistan’s
of 161
Kabul’s thealso
closest
fractured end twenty decades
foreign
politics, years.
partner,
butofEven waralso
Taliban
probably
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As the “safe
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Afghan havens”
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increases
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ground Afghanistan
the senior
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its military
to
Pakistani
tomilitary
scale
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back
both said
their
onundermines
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Pakistan
prowess their
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participation of
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retired
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governance allowing
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and TTP
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space
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for
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natural
97 Many to
U.S.
allies use to
–132space
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A failed peace
close to couldU.S. spark all-out civil war in Afghanistan and a massive influx of refugees
their
Taliban
militants
Taliban control
intoandthe
leaders will
Sunniand bethe
notcommanders
politicalsectariantolerated”.
outfits were
154
–appeared
is alreadyto
students
election, bearadding
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into
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Washington taking the wouldterritory.
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election go 2020
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July would
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stable Pakistan,
also Pakistan
continuing
in has long
to rely
administration
increase
Jamiat signalled
even further ifaKabul
Ulema-e-Islam, its intention
PashtunTaliban”. political and
140 party, its
A formeropenness
led senior
by to
Fazlur talking
counter-terrorism
Rehman with the
and
its
on conflict-prone
demanded
force to
parliament, that
strengthen
Prime aroundwestern
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their million
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ceded alreadytheand Afghan
decision-makingtenseclose insurgents’
to another
million
with theAfghan
Ghani
Taliban.
Pakistan
official likewise
Islamabad’s
Samiul Haq.
106
has role warned:
supported
Haq, inwho the
facilitating
headed Afghan
“Pakistani peace
sectarian
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citizens
government
policy go militant
backworsened to allies.
their In
further.
114 the
homeland, worst-case
Hoping citing to scenario,
their
salvage presence a
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as both
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Pakistan takeover
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urged Kabul, and
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Biden
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the
from
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agreement
acapture.
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troop
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Taliban
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contacts,
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Mohammad Pakistan
economic
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would
security face
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threat. to 162
dilemma build Shouldonof dealing
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support.
backing
war,
It
Pakistan’s and
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saw
military
Deobandi
–
an
crucially
of
opportunity
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141
leadership,
madrasa– very of
to
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networks
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wereon
could
its preferred
also
aid. the
again country’s
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rolein the Taliban’s
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shoring Should
Pakistani up inclusion
the Afghan
Pashtun in
recruits
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power-
peace tothe
efforts
either to
activelyenergise or it
115
territory
On 7Taliban
sharing July they
2015,
arrangements control.
Pakistan 155 hosted
when Notwithstanding
the the firstat
Trump direct the
administration support
formal the
contacts
began Taliban
between
pursuing receives
the from
Taliban
and Afghan
settlement the in
process.
the 134 Responding
cause. tosuchquestions athe Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing on 27
attempt
however,
movement’s
government to forcibly
therepresentatives,
military
track prevent
record leadership,
suggests an
including influx,
aitformer
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reluctant
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up said,
minister, it would
“is solely
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responsible for
Afghanistan
April,
Afghan Khalilzad
factions
as the
said
and
U.S. prepared
Pakistan
alienate hadto
Pashtuns beenwithdraw “supportive
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the border.
the
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country.
seniorpress that
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Pashtun
and
acknowledged
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fought policy,
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present. ministry
theforces
Islamabad’s
Pakistan
violence, civilian
to theenter in
and facilitating
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negotiations leaders with areand
February share
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2020
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agreement
concernedof The
for 31
with
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warned:high
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subsequent
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participant
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presidential
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walls
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is
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163
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walls
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appreciate
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allies Pakistan
Taliban’s
a
allies.
road
at
142
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to
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They
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On 14 made
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C. IV. Pakistan and the Taliban: The Question of
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killed
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Biden’s as he
announced on
II Influence
world
U.S.
to the after
support, Iran.
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Backdrop 108
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136 they
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Ghani
successor Baradar,
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of the Taliban’s
should
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it continue to support
ease border version tensions. of Deobandi
the insurgents, 156 Yet Islam
including
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Haibatullah
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militants”.
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129
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aconference
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2021,
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Sirajuddin
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forward
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10leaderspolitician
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aleadership
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146 Militant
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147
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with circles.
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Pakistan”. agreed
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Anxious gained
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in
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102 tocounterparts,
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administration’s
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131
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103 phase in which
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security
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deal,
donors and committed,
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Michael Mullen, ASIA 30 JUNE 2021 151
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talks 165
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departure
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125
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republican and over
democratic a political principles.settlement 138 Should to the conflict.
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U.S. analyst defeat commented
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A Force in Fragments: Reconstituting the

Pakistan: Shoring Up Afghanistan’s Peace Process

withdrawal of 169 / ASIA 30 JUNE

parliament. 169 / ASIA

Michael Mullen, 169 /$12 ASIAbillion

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