The impact

of
covid-19
on
the world
stay home
Mohammadia school
of engineering
 REALIZED BY :

o SOUFIANE LAOUMRI
o HAMZA WAKRIM
o KABBAJ ISMAIL
o MEHDI SAMLAK
o ABDELBASSAT TAIBI
o ACHRAF ZAZA
 1

4
1
“It is unavoidable that the novel coronavirus epidemic will have a considerable impact on the
economy and society” - China’s president Xi Jinping,February 23, 2020.

Countries all over the world are rushing to slow the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic by testing
cases and caring for patients, tracing potential contacts, implementing travel restriction and border
closures, encouraging or demanding from citizens to enter confinement, while closing schools and
cancelling large gatherings in sports and arts. Countries have not been affected at the same time or
with the same amplitude and even inside a given country people are not experiencing the pandemic
with the same magnitude depending on the nature of their preexisting health conditions, their
income source or their social settings. Therefore, the COVID-19 crisis seems to be more than a health
or sanitary one, for it has the potential to generate a long lasting and damaging social and economic
impact

We are facing a global health crisis unlike any in the 75-year history of the United Nations — one
that is killing people, spreading human suffering, and upending people’s lives. But this is much more
than a health crisis. It is a human crisis. The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is attacking societies at
their core. The IMF has just reassessed the prospect for growth for 2020 and 2021, declaring that we
have entered a recession – as bad as or worse than in 2009. The IMF projects recovery in 2021 only
if the world succeeds in containing the virus and take the necessary economic measures.1

In the face of such an unprecedented situation in recent history, the creativity of the response must
match the unique nature of the crisis – and the magnitude of the response must match its scale. No
country will be able to exit this crisis alone.
2
Effects of COVID-19 on Global Healthcare Systems

Effects of
COVID-19 on
Global
Healthcare
Systems
The first confirmed case of COVID-19 occurred in Germany on the January 27. In
mid-March of 2020, numerous measures were introduced to slow the spread. This
pandemic poses a major challenge to both the German healthcare system and the
German economy. Is the German healthcare system prepared for the outbreak of
COVID-19?

Healthcare expenditure per capita 4,54 Euro

Medical practitioners per 1000 people 4,3

Beds per 1000 people 6

Population aged 60+ (%) 28,2

The Federal Statistical Office collects data on health expenditure every two years, so the latest available data
is from 2017. In 2017, Germany's healthcare expenditure amounted to €375.6 billion, an increase of 4.7%
over the previous year, accounting for 11.5% of GDP. Per capita expenditure was therefore €4,544. About
4.9% of these costs were attributable to respiratory diseases, the share of which is expected to rise sharply in
2020 due to the outbreak of COVID-19 and is also likely to cause a significant increase in health expenditure.
If a COVID-19 infection is suspected, inhabitants are advised to firstly contact their general practitioner (GP;
Q86.21DE) by telephone, who will then decide accordingly whether a test should be carried out. In Germany,
only 16.7% of doctors work as GPs, which is 25.0% below the EU’s average, with an exceptional lack in rural
areas. In total, Germany has 4.3 doctors and 12 nurses per 1,000 inhabitants. The number of nurses is
significantly higher than the EU’s average.

More than one-quarter of healthcare expenditure is accounted for by 1,942 hospitals, the share of which is
expected to increase in the current year. In recent years, there have been repeated calls to reduce
overcapacity in hospitals to avoid misallocation of resources, but this debate has changed with the outbreak
of COVID-19. Germany currently has 6 hospital beds per 1,000 inhabitants and 33.9 intensive care beds per
100,000 inhabitants (0.3 intensive care beds per 1,000 inhabitants).
A major challenge, however, is personnel capacity. Relatively few skilled workers are available despite an
above-average number of doctors per 1,000 inhabitants. With the additional expansion of capacity due to
COVID-19, the minimum nursing staff limits introduced last year have therefore been temporarily suspended
and medical students in later semesters are currently being recruited for deployment in hospitals.
Demographic shifts are already well underway in Germany, with the proportion of older people
in the population constantly growing. The proportion of people 60 and over is 28.2%, while
6.5% of the German population is already over 80. Older people and those with pre-existing
conditions are particularly at risk and need special protection from COVID-19, as its course is
often much more severe in older generations than in younger, generally healthier generations.

Hospitals have been urged by the government to postpone scheduled elective surgeries as
much as possible to keep beds free for COVID-19 infected patients. To protect the hospitals
from resulting financial issues, the government passed the Hospital Relief Act; therein,
hospitals will receive a compensation payment of €560.00 for each patient.

The German healthcare system seems to be relatively well prepared for COVID-19, with death
rates relatively low at the moment. So far, however, there is relatively little knowledge
regarding COVID-19 prevention or treatment, making healthcare work difficult and uncertain.
Per capita health expenditure in the United States is expected to amount to $10,612 in 2020,
substantially higher than comparative per capita health expenditure of other developed
countries. The exorbitant costs of healthcare in the United States stem from its complex,
hybrid public-private payer system that largely depends on employer-provided health
insurance. The implications for the US healthcare system under the current COVID-19 outbreak
are dire. Concerns regarding capacity and economic support have come to the forefront of
national discussions. Through this overview,

Healthcare expenditure per capita 10,612 Dollars

Medical practitioners per 1000 people 2,6

Beds per 1000 people 2,8

Population aged 60+ (%) 17,0

The healthcare capacity of the United States can be described as adequate on a per capita
basis when taking into account the country’s geographic dispersion and percentage of
population over 60 years of age.
Healthcare capacity is abundant in areas of the country with high densities of individuals aged
60 and older. This helps to mitigate the potential strain on the US healthcare system as the
virus has a disproportionately more severe effect on older individuals. However,
immunocompromised individuals are more dispersed and are at equal or greater risk
compared with the elderly. The individuals aged 60 and over to account for 17.0% of the total
US population, placing it at a slightly lower risk than other countries with higher populations of
elderly individuals.
COVID-19 has strained healthcare capacity in areas of the country considered hotspots for the
virus. Nowhere in the country is this more prevalent than in New York. The state continues to
contend with the rapid spread of the virus and surging hospitalization rates. However, New
York’s healthcare capacity has remained resilient as local, state and federal aid has bolstered
capacity by converting convention centers, hotels and even an area of Central Park into
temporary hospitals. In other parts of the country, particularly Washington and California,
states have allowed bankrupt hospitals to reopen to increase capacity. Overall, the numerous
measures taken to increase healthcare capacity in New York, Washington and California serve
as models for potential severe outbreaks in other parts of the country and emphasize the
impact of rapid mobilization.
Signed into law on March 27, the $2.1 trillion Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Security
(CARES) Act provides significant relief to the US Healthcare sector. The most significant
provisions include:
• $100.0 billion in grants to hospitals to cover healthcare-related expenses and lost revenues.
• $27.0 billion to replenish the national stockpile of medical equipment and support research
and development of COVID-19 vaccines, therapeutics and diagnostics. Included in this
allocation is $3.5 billion of funding to the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development
Authority to fund the development and manufacture of biomedical treatments.
• $4.3 billion in grants to the Centers for Disease Control to facilitate testing and current
federal, state, and local mitigation efforts.
The total number of hospital beds in the United States is about 924,107, according to the
American Hospital Association. Therefore, the $100.0 billion in hospital relief will average
$108,213 per hospital bed. Currently, the $100.0 billion is in the process of being distributed
on the basis of a hospital’s share of Medicare fee-for-service payments. As of April 8, an initial
$30.0 billion is expected to be released to the nation’s roughly 6,000 hospitals. Going forward,
the gradual distribution of federal aid to hospitals will greatly increase the nation’s
preparedness and support the continued fight against COVID-19.
The first two COVID-19 cases in the UK were recorded on January 29; case numbers have
since snowballed despite enforced social distancing and the closure of nonessential
establishments. The NHS covers all UK citizens, with general taxation contributing the
majority of its funding. However, growth in NHS has been slow in recent years, resulting
in a growing private sector. As the UK faces an increasing rate of transmission and
hospitalization, with the Prime Minister himself having been treated in intensive care,
how well prepared is the country’s health sector for handling the COVID-19 pandemic?

Healthcare expenditure per capita 2,33 Dollars

Medical practitioners per 1000 people 2,8

Beds per 1000 people 2,5

Population aged 60+ (%) 23,8

Although UK healthcare expenditure has increased over the past five years, it has fallen as a share of GDP. ONS figures
show that there was a 3.3% increase in spending over 2017, equating to £2,989 per person, but healthcare spending has
fallen from 9.8% of GDP in 2013, to 9.6% in 2017. Per capita healthcare spending in the UK was marginally below the
median spend of OECD countries, but the country has the highest rate of health expenditure paid for through public
revenues, at 79.0%.

Opportunities for private practitioners have arisen in the face of long NHS waiting times, which have significantly exceeded
targets. However, private healthcare provision may marginally offset pressure on NHS services during the pandemic, as the
government has struck a deal with private healthcare providers to assist in providing care for COVID-19 patients. However,
as the functionality of the NHS dominates the public eye in the final quarter of 2019-20 and into 2020-21, healthcare
expenditure is expected to increase as the NHS scrambles to cope with rising demand. The government initially made a
£5.0 billion fund available to the NHS and public services to support efforts to fight COVID-19, and has promised to provide
however much is needed.
The UK population is expanding and is forecast to reach 67.0 million in 2020. Additionally, people are living longer, with UK
life expectancy reaching 81.3 years in 2019. The percentage of people aged 60 and over increased to 23.8% in 2018. With
92.0% of the recorded deaths due to COVID-19 in England occurring with people in this age group, the UK is in a more
vulnerable position than it might have been a decade ago.

NHS England states that roughly one-quarter of the population, and two-thirds of people aged 65 or over, have two or
more long-term medical conditions. Depending on the nature of these conditions, a person may be more exposed to
COVID-19. Air pollution and smoking both represent an increased risk due to the respiratory nature of COVID-19. The OECD
has reported that 17.2% of the UK population aged 15 and over are daily smokers, whilst air pollution results in the death
of 32.1 people out of 100,000 – both of which are considered below the OECD average.
Although the UK government was initially slow to react to COVID-19, the interventionist steps taken have been drastic.
Widespread closures of businesses have been enforced to prevent social gatherings, and people have been instructed to
isolate within their homes except for leaving to shop and exercise.
The NHS has enlisted all English private hospitals to help treat coronavirus, taking on work which the public organization
cannot carry out. Under the terms agreed by the government, no profit will be derived from any services, with operators
receiving at-cost payment. The deal is expected to provide 8,000 more hospital beds, an additional 1,200 ventilators, more
than 10,000 nurses and 700 doctors.
The sector is at severe risk of staff shortages, as medical staff that catch the virus will have to self-isolate for 14 days. In
response, more than 65,000 retired doctors and nurses in England and Wales have been asked to return to the NHS, and
anyone in Scotland who has left the medical profession within the last three years is being asked to return. Additionally,
Allied Health Professionals (AHP) have been encouraged to return to work, and unqualified AHP students have been asked
if they would like to undertake paid employment with the NHS to further relieve the strain.
To meet the expected wave of patients needing to be hospitalized, field hospitals have begun to open in different
locations, such as London’s Nightingale Hospital and Birmingham NEC Nightingale Hospital.
With only 8,000 ventilators on hand, several UK manufacturers have made ventilator production a priority. Additionally,
the government has committed to increasing testing capacity to 100,000 per day by the end of April.
With the sudden onset of COVID-19, healthcare must be provided to all who are in need at the lowest possible cost
available as the UK economy strives to remain efficient. The pandemic has provided the greatest example of the
importance of state-provided healthcare. The UK government has reversed previous intentions by opening the coffers to
the NHS, commandeering private healthcare organizations to fight the oncoming tide and save lives. However, the
question remains: have they reversed enough of their previous actions at a fast-enough pace?
2/ Impact of Covid-19 on Global Economy Structure

Impact of
Covid-19 on
Global
Economy
Structure
 2-1/ INTRODUCTION
The outbreak of pandemic Covid-19 all over the world has disturbed the rpolitical, social,
economic, religious and financial structures of the whole world. World’s topmost economies
such as the US, China, UK, Germany, France, Italy, Japan and many others are at the verge of
collapse. Besides,
Stock Markets around the world have been pounded and oil prices have fallen off a cliff. In
just a week 3.3 million Americans applied for unemployment and a week later another 6.6
million people started searching for jobs. Also, many experts on economic and financial
matters have warned about the worsening condition of global economic and financial
structure. Such as Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director of International Monitory Fund
(IMF), explained that “a recession at least as bad as during the Global Financial Crisis or
worse”. Moreover, Covid-19 is harming the global economy because the world has been
experiencing the most difficult economic situation since World War-II. When it comes to the
human cost of the Coronavirus pandemic it is immeasurable therefore all countries need to
work together with cooperation and coordination to protect the human beings as well as
limit the economic damages. For instance, the lockdown has restricted various businesses
such as travelling to contain the virus consequently this business is coming to an abrupt halt
globally.
Keeping in a view the staggering situation G-20 nations called an emergency meeting to discuss
worsening conditions and prepare a strategy to combat Covid-19 as losses could be reduced.
The spread of the epidemic is picking up speed and causing more economic damages. It is
stated by the U.S. official from federal reserves that American unemployment would be 30%
and its economy would shrink by half. As for as the jobs of common people are concerned,
there is also a real threat of losing their jobs because with business shutting down that shows
that companies will be unable to pay to workers resultantly they have to lay off them. While
when it comes to the stock market, it is severely damaged by Covid-19 such as the stock
market of the United States is down about thirty percent. By looking over the existing
condition of several businesses, most of the investors are removing its money from multiple
businesses in this regard $83 billion has already removed from emerging markets since the
outbreak of Covid19. So, the impact of Covid-19 is severe on the economic structure of the
world because people are not spending money resultantly businesses are not getting revenue
therefore most of the businesses are shutting up shops.
2-2/ TOURISM
2020 Forecast- International tourist arrivals worldwide (In millions)

This would result in the loss of US $ 300-450 billion in international tourism

receipts (exports), almost a third of the US $ 1.5 trillion generated in the
worst case scenario.
 2-3/ STOCK MARKET
Few will regret the end of the first 2020 quarter. Fears of a U.S.-Iran war gave way to the coronavirus pandemic
which JPMorgan reckons will have pushed the world economy into a 12% contraction over January to March. The
quarter saw the most brutal global equity collapse since the Great Depression,
exacerbated by a 60% oil price slump. April may not bring much relief, with coronavirus still spreading rapidly and
keeping large parts of the global economy shuttered. Banks have rushed to slash Q2 forecasts too, so expect more
turbulence on financial markets.
 2-4/ MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY

As per the estimation by United Nations Conference on Trade and

Development (UNCTAD), the COVID-19 outbreak could cause global FDI to
shrink by 5%-15%, due to the downfall in manufacturing sector coupled with
factory shutdown. The negative effects of COVID-19 on FDI investments are
expected to be high in the energy, automotive, and airlines industries. Due to
the epidemics of COVID-19 across the globe, the manufacturers of the
automobile, chemical, electronics, and aircraft are facing concerns regarding
the availability of raw material. In the electronics sector, smartphones and
consumer electronics companies have commenced a reduction in production
operations and postponed the introduction of new products coupled with the
COVID-19 outbreak, which in turn has interrupted the supply of components.
 2-5/ TRADE
The slowdown of manufacturing in China due to the coronavirus (COVID-19)
outbreak is disrupting world trade and could result in a $US50 billion decrease
in exports across global value chains, according to estimates published by
UNCTAD on 4 March.
The in-house analysis performed by DG TRADE’s Chief Economist team
estimates a 9.7% decrease in global trade for 2020. For the EU27, the
predicted COVID19related economic contraction results in a reduction of 9.2%
in extra-EU27 exports of goods and services, and an 8.8% decrease in extraEU27
imports in 2020.
According to UNCTAD estimates, the most affected sectors include precision
instruments, machinery, automotive and communication equipment. Among
the most affected economies are the European Union ($15.6 billion), the
United States ($5.8 billion), Japan ($5.2 billion), The Republic of Korea ($3.8
billion), Taiwan Province of China ($2.6 billion) and Viet Nam ($2.3 billion).
2-6/ CONCLUSION
The estimated global effects of COVID-19 are subject to changed depending on the
containment of the virus and or changes in the sources of supply. However, serious
damage was received by every country’s economic system already and for sure
consequences are yet to come.
3
1-1/ NEGATIVE MACROECONOMIC AND FISCAL IMPACT

With the pandemic spreading in Europe and domestically,

along with an acute drought, Morocco’s economy is expected
to suffer greatly this year from the negative impact of the
infection. A baseline scenario shows that real GDP would
recede by 1.5 percent in 2020, the first recession hitting
Morocco since more than two decades ago. On the fiscal side,
the pandemic will have an adverse impact on the pace of fiscal
consolidation and in turn on gross financing needs and debt.
The overall fiscal deficit is projected to deteriorate to more
than 6 percent of GDP in 2020. The worsening of the deficit is
primarily explained by Covid19-related higher social and
economic spending and lower tax revenues, particularly from
corporate taxes. Consequently, the central government debt
could peak at 73 percent of GDP in 2020.
The current account balance is expected to
widen to around 7 percent of GDP this year. A sharp
slowdown in exports, tourism revenues and
remittances, is anticipated as the pandemic disrupts
trade and global value chains. Although low oil prices
in 2020 will reduce energy import outlays, it will not
fully offset the negative impacts of the pandemic on
exports of goods and services. Financing the balance
of payment deficit would prove difficult, as FDIs are
expected to slow down and risk premium in the
international financial markets are increasing.
Hence the critical importance of Covid-19 specific
programs of the multilateral financial institutions to
help developing countries, of which Morocco, to fund
their financing gaps.
 1-2/ HEAVY SOCIAL IMPACT DIFFICULT TO MEASURE
In the first part of 2010s Morocco experienced
significant poverty reduction; predictions based on GDP per
capita indicate, however, that the poverty rate (using a
Poverty line of 3.2 USD PPP) will increase at least by about 1
percentage point; in other words, about 300.000 Moroccans
are expected to fall into poverty (Figure 1). The economic
volatility can also affect the wellbeing of those whose
consumption expenditure is just above the poverty line; a
small negative shock can push this group back into poverty.
The percentage of the population ‘vulnerable’ to
falling into poverty varies depending on the household
expenditure adopted as a threshold. Using an expenditure
threshold of US$ 5.5 PPP, the numbers of poor and those not
poor but vulnerable to falling into poverty are strikingly high:
around 25 percent in 2019 and bound to increase to 27 percent
in 2020. Therefore, due to the economic crisis almost 10
million Moroccans can become poor or at risk of falling into
poverty.
Figure 1 :Poverty and vulnerability projections: rates and number of individuals

Source: World Bank estimates based on ENCVM 2013-2014

The impact of the crisis will likely be felt first and foremost by those with an informal employment.
This is the vast majority of Moroccan workers (Figure2) typically employed in vulnerable sectors,
such as tourism, services (e.g. transportation and retail sales) and tradeable, as well as by those in
the gig economy and those unable to work remotely but will eventually spread to other parts of the
economy and across the formal and informal sectors.

Figure 2: Population living in households with at least one person with formal
or informal employment or inactive/unemployed by quintiles

Source: World Bank estimates based on ENCVM 2013-2014

2-1/ SETTING UP OF AN ECONOMIC WATCH COMMITTEE (CVE)
An Economic Watch Committee (CVE) has been set
up at the level of the Ministry of the Economy,
Finance and Administration Reform. This committee
is responsible on the one hand, for monitoring the
development of the economic situation through
rigorous monitoring and evaluation mechanisms
and on the other hand, for identifying appropriate
measures in terms of support for the sectors
impacted. The EWC has decided on an action plan
to run until the end of June with a first series of
measures as follow:
1- Suspension of payment of social charges (CNSS
contribution).
2- Establishment of a moratorium on the
repayment of bank loans to companies.
 2-2/ MEASURES FOR EMPLOYEES

All employees declared to the CNSS in

February 2020, out of business, of a company
in difficulty, will benefit from a monthly flat-
rate allowance of 2000 dirhams net, family
allowances, and AMO benefits. This support
will be provided by the Special Fund for the
Management of the Coronavirus Pandemic.
These employees will also be able to benefit
from the postponement of the repayment of
the maturities of bank credits (consumer
credit and buyer credit) until June 30, 2020 to
come.
 2-3/ MEASURES FOR BUSINESSES, SMES, MSMES AND LIBERAL
PROFESSIONS IN DIFFICULTY

 Suspension of the payment of social charges until June 30, 2020.

 Establishment of a moratorium for the reimbursement of bank loan
maturities and for the reimbursement of leasing maturities until June 30
without payment of fees or penalties.
 Activation of an additional operating credit line granted by the banks and
guaranteed by the
CCG.
 Acceleration of payments for the benefit of businesses, in particular SMEs
and very small businesses, in order to reduce the pressure on their cash flow
and allow them to fulfill their
financial obligations.
 2-4/ SUPPORT MEASURES FOR THE INFORMAL SECTOR
In the first phase: Ramedist households operating in
the informal sector which no longer have income due
to compulsory confinement, can benefit from
subsistence aid which will be served by the
Coronavirus fund, determined as follows: 800 dirhams
for households of
two people or less; 1000 dirhams for households of
three t four people; and 1200 dirhams for households
of more than four people. In the second phase: For
nonramedists, operating in the informal sector who
have lost their income due to confinement, the same
amounts of aid will be granted to them. The launch of
an electronic platform dedicated to the filing of
declarations will be announced shortly.
 2-5/ Creation of a special fund dedicated to the management of the
Coronavirus pandemic “La Covid-19”
A Special Trust Account entitled "Special Fund for the Management of the Coronavirus Pandemic" The
Covid19 "" has been created. Endowed with 10 billion dirhams, this fund will be reserved, on the one
hand, to cover the costs of upgrading the medical device, in terms of adapted infrastructure and
additional means to be acquired, in an emergency. In this context, a substantial effort has been made
for the benefit of the health sector, with the allocation of 2 billion dirhams to strengthen the medical
system. This amount was used mainly to:
 Purchase medical and hospital equipment (1,000 resuscitation beds, 550 respirators, 100,000
sampling kits, 100,000 test kits, radiology and imaging equipment, etc.).
 Purchase medical and hospital equipment (1,000 resuscitation beds, 550 respirators, 100,000
sampling kits, 100,000 test kits, radiology and imaging equipment, etc.).
 Strengthen the operating resources of the Ministry of Health (staff allowances, disinfection, cleaning,
etc.).
In addition, it has been decided to regulate the prices of hydroalcoholic gels. The Fund will also support
national economy, through a collection of measures proposed by the EWC to support vulnerable
sectors, as well as job protection and mitigation of the crisis social impact. On top of the money amount
mobilized by the general budget of the State, this Special Fund is open to other types of contribution in
kind by public and private entities.
4

The quickly evolving nature of the COVID-19 crisis creates a

number of issues that make it difficult to estimate the full
cost to global economic activity.