Are the colours of gummy bears evenly distributed in a bag

Purpose of Project

The reason I have chosen this topic is to satisfy the requirement of the CAPE Applied Mathematics system of
study. The project is to find out whether or not gummy bears are evenly distributed by colour or not. This is
done to test if manufacturers pack their goods evenly in bags like many others. The bags contained 4 different
colours which are red, yellow, green and orange which was used to get my results of a pack being evenly
distributed. In this project I will be using Binomial distribution for my first test to find the probability of getting
97
a red gummy bear after ten tries when the probability of getting a red gummy bear is . A binomial
600
distribution is used for determining the confidence for proportions. Using this will result in two different
answers which are pass or fail. To do this distribution there must be n repeated identical independent trials,
two outcomes and probability for success (p) and failure (q) where p + q =1. For my second test I use a two
1
tailed hypothesis test to prove that probability of getting a certain colour is . A two tailed hypothesis test is a
6
statistical test used in inference, in which a given statistical hypothesis , H0 (null hypothesis) will be rejected
when the value of the statistic is either sufficiently small or sufficiently large. The test is named after the "tail"
of data under the far left and far right of a bell-shaped normal data distribution or bell curve. If Z is greater
than the critical value we reject Ho or if Z is less than the critical value we retain Ho. Using these two test we
can determine whether or not gummy bears are evenly distributed in a bag.

Aim

To investigate and determine whether or not the colours of gummy bears that are packaged in bags are evenly
distributed for medium sized bags of gummy bears.

Method of Data Collection

A bag of gummy bears is randomly chosen from a box containing 30 bags and labelled. The bag was then
opened and the different colours were grouped together. A record of the number of gummy bears present in a
bag together with the number of each colour is recorded for each of the 30 bags. A probability distribution
table is formed as the tally is taken for the gummy bears present in a bag. The process is repeated until all 30
bags are removed without replacement. It was done with all the other bags ensuring that the colours were not
mixed up during counting. Possible errors made during extracting data were corrected when checking over
results.
Presentation of Data

Diagram showing number of different colours of gummy bears

30

25

20
Red
Green
Yellow
15 Orange

10

0
Bag 1 Bag 2 Bag 3 Bag 4 Bag 5 Bag 6 Bag 7 Bag 8 Bag 9 Bag 10 Bag 11 Bag 12 Bag 13 Bag 14 Bag 15
 Diagram showing number of different colours of gummy bears
25

20

15 Red
Green
Yellow
Orange
10

0
Bag 16 Bag 17 Bag 18 Bag 19 Bag 20 Bag 21 Bag 22 Bag 23 Bag 24 Bag 25 Bag 26 Bag 27 Bag 28 Bag 29 Bag 30

Table showing the amount of different colours in each bag

Red Green Yellow Orange
Bag 1 5 10 12 13
Bag 2 7 5 16 12
Bag 3 3 6 6 25
Bag 4 2 11 11 16
Bag 5 5 8 17 10
Bag 6 9 9 7 15
Bag 7 5 8 10 17
Bag 8 2 7 11 20
Bag 9 1 10 23 6
Bag 10 4 12 13 11
Bag 11 6 10 16 8
Bag 12 9 15 6 10
Bag 13 8 10 9 13
Bag 14 10 10 10 10
Bag 15 8 9 19 4
Bag 16 6 17 5 12
Bag 17 3 10 22 5
Bag 18 12 8 9 11
Bag 19 10 9 10 11
Bag 20 8 3 12 17
Bag 21 6 14 9 11
Bag 22 10 10 10 10
Bag 23 5 7 9 19
Bag 24 9 12 12 7
Bag 25 12 9 2 17
Bag 26 5 5 12 18
Bag 27 7 3 9 21
Bag 28 3 11 16 10
Bag 29 4 15 20 1
Bag 30 10 7 13 10
Analysis of Data

Binomial Distribution

97
Find the probability of getting a red gummy bear after ten tries. Probability of getting a red gummy bear is
600

97 503
n= 10, p= q=
600 600

Let X be the r.v “gummy bear chosen is red”

X Bin(n , p)

97
= X Bin(10 , )
600

2 8 1 9 0 10
P( X ≥ 2) = 1-
[ [( ) ( ) ( ) ] [ ( ) ( ) ( ) ] [ ( ) ( ) ( ) ]]
10 97
2 600
503
600
+
10 97
1 100
503
600
+
10 97
0 600
503
600

= 0.211 (to 2 s.f)

Hypothesis test (2 tailed test)

1
Manufacturer claims that probability of getting a certain colour is . Using a significance of 5% and X = 150
6
 1
H 0 : p=
6

1
H1: p ≠
6

1 5
Approximate binomial to normal = X B(np , npq) p = , q = , n = 600
6 6

1 1 5
=X B (( ) (( )( ) ))
6
,
6 6
(600)

=X B ( 16 , 2503 )
Standard Normal Distribution

Non-Critical Region
Critical Value z=1.96

Critical Value z=1.96

Retain Ho
Critical Region Critical Region
Reject Ho Reject Ho



 

-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3

Test Statistic

X−np
Z=
√ npq
150−100
= 250
√3

= 5.477

= 5.48 (to 3 s.f)

1
Since Z > 1.96 we reject Ho. This means that probability of getting certain colour is not .
6
Discussion of Findings

In the Binomial distribution the probability of getting a red gummy bear after ten tries when X ≥ 2 was found
1
to be 0.211 and in the hypothesis testing the manufacturers’ claim of getting a certain gummy bear is with
6
significance of 5% and X being 150 has rejected Ho.

Conclusions

From using the information from the discussion of findings it if found that gummy bears are not evenly
distributed in a bag. This is because the null hypothesis was rejected and getting a red gummy bear was 0.211
which showed that it was uneven.