How do we forecast?

Proprietary content. ©Great Learning. All Rights Reserved. Unauthorized use or distribution prohibited
 Weather Forecasting

Satellite Image of a Storm

Proprietary content. ©Great Learning. All Rights Reserved. Unauthorized use or distribution prohibited
 Epidemic Model

S-I-R model

Time t and differential equations

Other considerations

• Births and natural deaths

• Immunity and vaccination

“Flattening the curve”

Proprietary content. ©Great Learning. All Rights Reserved. Unauthorized use or distribution prohibited
 Stock Prices

“Predictability is absent in the short run … but there is predictability in the long run”

Efficient markets to Behavioral finance

Proprietary content. ©Great Learning. All Rights Reserved. Unauthorized use or distribution prohibited
From seconds

Algorithmic trading

To centuries
Climate change

Proprietary content. ©Great Learning. All Rights Reserved. Unauthorized use or distribution prohibited
 Thank you

Proprietary content. ©Great Learning. All Rights Reserved. Unauthorized use or distribution prohibited