Duterte’s Socio-Economic Agenda1 Progress so far through 2021

0. Peace and Order The President himself backtracked on his

promise of eliminating illegal drugs and
conceded that the war on drugs is a
failure in 2019.2 As of 2020, the death toll
of Duterte's war on drugs totaled 6,0113
with at least 122 children reported as
casualties.4 Beyond police anti-drug
operations, the number of vigilante-style
killings is estimated to reach at least
27,000 by human rights groups.5

The PNP claimed a 63% drop in crime

during the first five years of Duterte
compared to other administrations.6 Yet
a recent report by the Global Finance
Magazine ranked the Philippines as the
least safest among 134 countries in
2020.7 PNP administrative cases rose
significantly to 7,171 in 2020.8 Reports
show a 500% increase in the
extrajudicial killings of lawyers,9 and 11
vice mayors and 18 mayors slain since
2016.10

1
https://www.neda.gov.ph/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/PDP-Brochure.pdf 2
https://www.manilatimes.net/2019/04/04/news/headlines/duterte-drug-war-failed/535127 3
https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1390134/drug-war-death-toll-reaches-6011-as-of-december-2020-
pdea
4
https://www.businessinsider.com/children-have-been-killed-philippines-war-on-drugs-2020-6
5
https://www.rappler.com/nation/duterte-government-took-advantage-covid-19-pandemic
continue-drug-war-killings-abuses-hrw-report-2020
6
https://pia.gov.ph/news/2021/07/29/crime-rate-down-to-63-under-duterte-admin-pnp-chief
7
https://www.bworldonline.com/pnp-chief-nixes-phls-least-safe-country-rank/ 8
http://www.pnp.gov.ph/images/About_Us/2020_PNP_Annual_Report_12921.pdf 9
https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1465029/number-of-lawyers-killed-since-2016-soared-500 10
https://www.rappler.com/newsbreak/iq/list-mayors-vice-mayors-killed-since-july-2016-
duterte-government
 The Philippines has been included in the
top 5 most dangerous countries for
journalists from 2017 to 2019, and only
improved in 2020 where it was placed
seventh.11 So far, there have been 193 cases
of harassment and attacks against media
practitioners with 19 recorded deaths.12

In 2020, Duterte signed the

Anti-Terrorism Act into law which gives
more surveillance power to government
forces and allows for
the arrest and detainment of suspected
terrorists without any warrant or charges.
This has been condemned by human
rights groups as a way to stifle criticism
during the pandemic given the weak rule
of law in the country.13 The average
annual percentage drop in the rule of law
rankings of the Philippines is also the
biggest dip in the world. From 51st in
2015, the Philippines’ WJP Rule of Law
index is currently at 91st.14

1. Continue and maintain current Minor adjustments have been made to

macroeconomic policies, including
fiscal, monetary, and trade policies.
the inflation targeting framework to
address the economic impact of COVID
on households, firms, and enterprises.15
The country also maintained its open
trade policy and continued to participate
in multilateral trade agreements like the
Regional Comprehensive Economic
Partnership and the Transpacific
Partnership. The World Bank lauded the
Duterte administration's prudent fiscal
management strategy and

11
https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1354102/from-top-5-now-7-ph-improves-rank-in-list-of-deadliest
countries-for-journos
12
https://news.abs-cbn.com/spotlight/11/23/20/19-journos-killed-in-4-years-of-duterte-admin
watchdog
13
https://ishr.ch/latest-updates/philippines-anti-terrorism-law-further-threatens-safety-human
rights-defenders/
14
https://www.rappler.com/nation/philippines-ranking-rule-of-law-world-justice-project-2020
15
https://www.bsp.gov.ph/Media_And_Research/Publications/BSP_Unbound.pdf
 conservative economic policies as
measures that will help the country
withstand the challenges of the COVID-19
pandemic.16

Yet credit rating agencies have changed

their tune in 2021. In February, S&P
Global Ratings stated that the risk of
credit losses for Philippine banks is
higher than
previously expected given weak
economic activity, tough employment
conditions, and limited fiscal policy
support, and that these negative effects
would last for at least two years.17 The
Philippines is also at risk of receiving its
first credit rating downgrade in 16 years
as Fitch Ratings downgraded its outlook
to "negative" in July 2021.18 The
government raised the expected
unemployment rate to average 7-9%19
and inflation to increase at 4.2% by
2022.20

Even prior to the pandemic, major

companies like Nokia, Wells Fargo, and
Hondo Motor have announced that they
would be reducing investments in the
Philippines. This puts more than 1,700
jobs at risk.21

2. Institute progressive tax reform and
more effective tax collection,
indexing taxes to inflation. A tax
reform package will be submitted to
The TRAIN Act of 2017 increased
government revenues and helped deliver
the President’s social policies.22 However,
the poor are disproportionately affected
due to

16
https://www.dof.gov.ph/world-bank-cites-duterte-admins-prudent-fiscal-program-as-crucial-to
phl-efforts-to-beat-covid-19-pandemic/
17
https://businessmirror.com.ph/2021/02/10/sp-negative-economic-risk-trend-for-local-banks/
18
https://www.philstar.com/business/2021/07/12/2112030/philippines-investment-grade-risk
after-fitch-turns-negative
19
https://www.bworldonline.com/jobless-rate-likely-to-remain-high-until-2022/
20
https://www.pna.gov.ph/articles/1134920
21
https://asia.nikkei.com/Opinion/Duterte-s-threats-against-business-are-driving-investment
away
22
https://business.inquirer.net/270224/revenues-from-train-exceeded-govt-target-by-8-1-in-2018
 Congress by September 2016. changes in excise taxes.23 A study also
showed that TRAIN is not as progressive as
it seems with some reforms like lower
estate and donor's taxes benefiting the
rich.24The CREATE Act of 2021 lowers
corporate income tax to boost foreign
investor sentiment in the country.25 It
remains to be seen whether this will
trigger the desired increase in
investments, both domestic and foreign
that appears to have eluded the Duterte
administration. Foreign
investments have started to decline
after 2017 while domestic
investments, often measured as
capital formation, have recently
dropped to 18.3% in 2020.26

So far, only half of the comprehensive

tax reform package has been enacted
into law.

3. Increase competitiveness and the
ease of doing business. This effort will
draw upon successful models used to
attract business to local cities
(e.g., Davao) and pursue the
relaxation of the Constitutional
restrictions on foreign ownership,
except as regards land ownership,
in order to attract foreign direct
investment.
The Ease of Doing Business Act of 2018
was passed to encourage businesses by
automating the registration process and
eliminating red tape.27 Other laws such
as the Personal Property Security Act of
2020 also makes lending facilities
accessible to micro, small and medium
enterprises.28 The House Committee on
constitutional amendments is currently
working on relaxing prohibitions on
foreign ownership to boost competition
and investments.29

23
https://www.rappler.com/voices/thought-leaders/how-tax-reform-law-worsened-poverty
inequality-philippines
24
https://www.rappler.com/voices/thought-leaders/how-tax-reform-law-worsened-poverty
inequality-philippines
25
https://www.pna.gov.ph/articles/1143422
26
https://www.bworldonline.com/time-running-out-for-dutertes-economic-reforms/ 27
https://www.dvphilippines.com/blog/everything-you-need-to-know-about-the-ease-of-doing
business-law
28
https://www.dof.gov.ph/dof-confident-of-even-better-doing-business-ranking-for-phl-next
year-amid-msme-reform/
29
https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1385173/constitutional-prohibition-on-foreign-ownership-results
in-dummying-lawmaker
 Under the Duterte administration, the
Philippines dropped by 25 notches in the
ease of doing business rankings ranking
124th in 2019,30 and only slightly recovering
to 95th in 2020.31 Competitiveness
indicators deteriorated in recent years.
The Philippines recorded the steepest fall
in Asia and stands at its lowest ranking in
5 years to 52nd in the 2020 global
competitiveness ranking.32 Since peaking
at $10.3 billion in 2017, foreign direct
investments have continued to fall under
the Duterte administration. The
pandemic also caused a 24.6% drop in FDI
with only $6.5 billion recorded in 2020,
which was the lowest in five years.33

4. Accelerate annual infrastructure Infrastructure spending already took up

spending to account for 5% of GDP, 5% of the country’s GDP in 2018, and is
with Public-Private Partnerships estimated to continuously rise to 6.3% in
playing a key role. 2022.34

While much of this can be traced to the

“Build, Build, Build” program, only 11 out of
75 projects have been finished so far.35
Issues such as political lobbying and lack
of transparency in bidding and
contracting also compromised
Public-Private
Partnerships in this endeavor.

There is also growing evidence of

corruption in the government’s
infrastructure
programs. It was revealed that the top
ten contractors frequently awarded by
the BBB program have had a history of
fraud and

30
https://www.rappler.com/voices/thought-leaders/analysis-reason-philippines-ranking-ease
doing-business-plummeting
31
https://dict.gov.ph/ictstatistics/ph-improved-ranking-in-the-doing-business-2020-report/ 32
https://mb.com.ph/2021/06/17/ph-tumbles-in-2021-global-competitiveness-ranking/
33
https://www.philstar.com/business/2021/03/10/2083403/pandemic-worsens-already-declining
fdi-under-duterte
34
https://theaseanpost.com/article/build-build-build-program-amid-pandemic
35
https://business.inquirer.net/325314/dizon-40-of-119-build-projects-done-by-202
2
 delays36 and that 15-35% of project
expenses were spent on under-the-table
facilitation fees.37 Major issues also
remain in
coordination among government
agencies, confidentiality and trade
secrecy, and uneven service delivery
performance38

5. Promote rural and value chain
development toward increasing
agricultural and rural enterprise
productivity and rural tourism.
The Free Irrigation Act and Amendments
to the Agricultural Tariffication Act of
1996 were passed into law in 2017.39
The Rice Tariffication Law (R.A. 11203) of
2019 was enacted to modernize the
agricultural sector and stabilize the price
of rice. Unregulated rice imports have led
to an Php 80 B loss for rice farmers but
only a price fall of Php 232 M for
consumers. Reports show that the price
of rice fell from Php 23.14 per kilo in
September 2019 to Php 15.36 in 2019.40
Analysts note how RTL only benefited
middle men by increasing profits for
trader millers, importers, and wholesalers,
with little help for farmers.41

The government also pushed for rural

development strategies outlined in the
PDP yet only a few have been
implemented.42 So far, policies that are
enacted aimed to strengthen ecozones,
expand access to agricultural insurance,
and develop

36
https://www.rappler.com/business/top-10-contractors-build-build-build-programs-fraud-delays
records-pcij-report
37
https://business.inquirer.net/286779/corruption-eats-up-15-35-%E2%80%8Dof-construction
firms-budget
38
Cruz, Jerome Patrick, Delgra, Phanuelle, Enriquez, Jose Miguelito, Mendoza, Ronald U.
Governing the "Golden Age of Infrastructure": Build, Build, Build through an Accountability
Perspective. ASOG Working Paper 18-011 (2018).
39
https://www.pllo.gov.ph/index.php/downloads/priority-legislative-measures 40
https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1332019/winners-and-losers-from-the-rice-tariffication-law
41
See 38.
42
http://pdp.neda.gov.ph/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/Chapter-08.pdf
 agricultural infrastructure.43 As of July
2020, Duterte has proclaimed 73
ecozones with 52% dedicated to
information technology.44

Despite these efforts, the agricultural

sector has consistently been the lowest
contributor to the economy with an
average of 9.92% percent yearly.45 This is
much lower compared to the industry
sector (30%) and services sector (60%).

6. Ensure security of land tenure to The capabilities of the Community

encourage investments, and address
bottlenecks in land management
and titling agencies.
Environment and Natural Resources
Offices (CENRO) were increased to
fast-track the resolution of land cases.46
However, little progress was made in the
legislation of key bills such as the
Genuine Agrarian Reform Act, National
Land Use Law, and the Act on Rightsizing
the National Government.

The Land Management Bureau reported

that it has exceeded the 4.25% target for
agricultural free patents issued for 2020.47
In March 2021, President Duterte
announced the distribution of 2,234
hectares of land to former rebels in
Eastern Visayas.48

Yet records show that CARP land

distribution under the Duterte
administration has been the lowest in
history, distributing 40% short of its
original target for 2020.49Because of the
government’s BBB programs, legislators
in 2018 have also expressed concern
over the

43
https://businessmirror.com.ph/2018/10/17/maximizing-agricultures-economic-opportunities/
44
https://www.pna.gov.ph/articles/1109651
45
https://business.inquirer.net/325173/agriculture-remained-economic-laggard-in-past-5-years
46
https://mb.com.ph/2018/01/19/comprehensive-land-tenure-reforms-for-ph-in-the-works/
47
https://www.denr.gov.ph/index.php/news-events/press-releases/2138-denr-lmb-touts
accomplishments-amid-pandemic
48
https://www.pna.gov.ph/articles/1134123
49
https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1396141/farmers-demanding-land-tell-duterte-at-rally-you-broke
our-hearts
 possible displacement of around
180,000 families.50

7. Invest in human capital Education and health occupied the

development, including health
and education systems, and
match skills and training to meet
the demand
of businesses and the private sector.
largest portion of the Duterte
administration’s annual budget.51 On
average, Duterte's social spending,
which reached 8.5%, has exceeded
Aquino's which never reached 7%.52
Among the laws passed in developing
human capital are the Universal
Healthcare Act which automatically
enrolls all citizens in the National Health
Insurance Program and the Universal
Access to Quality Tertiary Education Act
which offers free tuition for state
universities.53

This is yet to be reflected in recent data on

healthcare and education in the country.
In a 2019 survey, 40% of respondents
expressed uncertainty on their capacity to
pay for medical bills and 30% cannot even
afford regular checkups.54 Medical costs
are also predicted to outpace general
inflation by six times in 2020.55

A 2019 report by OECD showed that

Filipino students fared worst in reading
comprehension and second-lowest in
both math and science among 79
countries.56 The World Bank reported
similar findings in 2020 with more than
80% Filipino students

50
https://cnnphilippines.com/news/2018/11/26/Duterte-Build-Build-Build-displacement.html
51
https://www.dbm.gov.ph/index.php/budget-documents/2020/2020-people-s-budget/2020-
people-s-proposed-budget
52
https://www.philstar.com/business/2021/08/04/2117350/social-spending-pandemic-and-last
sona
53
See 16.
54
https://www.philstar.com/business/2019/07/05/1932014/philippines-healthcare-unaffordable
55
https://www.asean.mercer.com/newsroom/philippines-healthcare-cost-inflation-mmb
study.html
56
https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1199952/fwd-briones-low-ph-pisa-results-a-wake-up-call
 failing to meet minimum levels of
proficiency.57 While more than 90% of
schools have access to electricity, only
around 60-77% have access to computers
and even fewer or 28-70% have access to
the internet.58 These have become
logistical limitations in the transition to
online learning during the pandemic.

8. Promote science, technology, and A law on strengthening the Balik-Scientist

the creative arts to enhance
innovation and creative capacity
towards self-sustaining, inclusive
development.
Program of the government was enacted
in 201859 and the Philippine Innovation
Act which creates the National
Innovation Council was passed in 2019.
A bill establishing the country’s own
Center for Disease Prevention and
Control and a Virology and Vaccine
Institute is on its third and final reading
by the House of
Representatives.60 According to the DOST,
they aim to open the virology institute’s
state-of-the-art facility by the end of 2023
or 2024.61 Meanwhile, the establishment
of the Department of Disaster Resilience
is pending approval in the Senate.62

The DOST also launched its “Science

for Change Program” that provides
capacity building programs for the
research and development (R&D)
institutions and industries. One
aspect of this program includes
NICER, which aims to establish R&D
centers to promote regional

57
https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1463031/education-gets-poor-grades-under-duterte
58
https://openstat.psa.gov.ph/PXWeb/pxweb/en/DB/DB__3I__G04/0043I3D04A1.px/table/table
ViewLayout1/?rxid=309e6e75-f95d-489c-af9d-6a2e6baaef0a
59
See 16.
60
https://www.philstar.com/headlines/2021/07/23/2114594/creation-virology-institute-center
disease-control-among-house-priorities
61
https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1436495/phs-virology-institute-to-rise-in-end-2023-or-2024-dost
62
https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news/nation/796876/duterte-asks-congress-to-pass-law
creating-cdc-virology-institute/story/
 development.63

While DOST received considerable

support at the start of the Duterte
administration, the budget for the
research and
development sector was cut by more
than Php 76 million in 2021.64 Because of
this, DOST proclaimed that it would only
be able to fund 10% of 888 research
projects for 2021.65

9. Improve social protection A law institutionalizing the Pantawid

programs, including the
government’s
Conditional Cash Transfer
program, to protect the poor
against instability and economic
shocks.
Pamilya Pilipino Program (4Ps) was
signed in 2019 to lower poverty.66
In response to the COVID-19 pandemic,
the Duterte government saw the largest
and widest social amelioration program
under the Bayanihan to Heal As One Act
which expanded the 4Ps program and
provided cash aid to low-income
families.67 By September 2020, Duterte
signed into law Bayanihan 2 which
allocated 165-B for the pandemic
response fund. However, both
Bayanihan programs have yet to fully
exhaust their respective budgets.68

With unemployment rising to 17.7% in

April 2020,69 a record-high of 7.6 million
Filipino families were reported to
experience hunger in September 2020.70
However, politicking and slow distribution
led to issues in aid

63
https://www.dost.gov.ph/9-programs-and-projects.html
64
https://cnnphilippines.com/news/2020/9/9/DOST-budget-P76-million-research.html 65
https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1351864/dost-budget-cut-to-affect-888-research-projects 66
https://www.rappler.com/nation/new-law-institutionalizes-pantawid-pamilyang-pilipino
program
67
https://business.inquirer.net/311503/govt-fund-releases-for-covid-19-efforts-hit-p-476-b 68
https://www.dbm.gov.ph/index.php/programs-projects/status-of-covid-19-releases#bayanihan 2
69
https://www.rappler.com/business/unemployment-rate-philippines-april-2020 70
https://www.rappler.com/nation/hunger-philippines-sws-survey-september-2020
 distribution,71 and studies reveal that the
beneficiaries can barely survive with the
amount of cash aid received.72 In the 16
months that the Philippines has been
under lockdown, only 2 months worth of
social transfers were provided.73
Legislators have noted that poor aid
distribution led to citizens stepping up
through community pantries.74

Poor economic management also

hints that more Filipinos will remain
poor and unemployed even by 2022.75

10. Strengthen implementation of Earlier this year, the Philippine

the Responsible Parenthood and
Reproductive Health Law to
enable especially poor couples
to make
informed choices on financial and
family planning.
Legislators’ Committee on Population
and
Development Foundation lamented the
education sector’s weak implementation
of the government-mandated
comprehensive sex education program.
According to the Commission on
Population and
Development, 62,510 Filipino minors gave
birth in 201976 and around 40 to 50 Filipino
children aged 10-14 years old give birth
every week.77

The use of modern contraceptives,

measured as the mCPR, rose from 24%
in 2015 to 25.8% in 2020.78 There is still a
lot to

71
https://www.rappler.com/newsbreak/explainers/coronavirus-ayuda-government-aid-what-went
wrong-2020-lessons-learned-2021
72
https://www.ibon.org/after-7-weeks-of-lockdown-meager-cash-aid-puts-hhs-below-official
poverty-line/
73
http://legacy.senate.gov.ph/press_release/2021/0726_poe1.asp
74
https://www.rappler.com/nation/senate-house-representatives-statements-rise-community
pantries
75
https://www.rappler.com/business/more-poor-unemployed-filipinos-even-by-2022
76
https://cnnphilippines.com/news/2021/2/17/Reproductive-Health-Law-teenage
pregnancy.html?fbclid=IwAR1E_JvHUp_vzhg69JBm3rDVq7c4daK9GHE
3AyC3EIDSZmACGztu7vJ2Os
77
https://www.pna.gov.ph/articles/1116071
78
https://www.familyplanning2020.org/philippines

be done for DOH to reach the target

mCPR of 30% for 2022.79
79
https://doh.gov.ph/family-planning