Predictions 2020+:
The age of post-retail retail
By Bryan Gildenberg
Welcome to our 2020 predictions
summary in which I promise to
spare you any “20/20 vision” puns.
Our retail outlooks for the year feature a mix of
predictions and extrapolations of retailers’ current
strategy into the specific activities we think they’ll
be undertaking in 2020. We approached the US
outlook from a channel/retailer perspective and our
European and global outlooks more thematically,
but some parallel ideas emerged from each of
these analyses that align with our notion of climate
change and the importance of telling the difference
between the weather (short-term fluctuations
in the headlines) and true climate change
— the major shifts that will truly shape the 2020s.
In climate change, the four major influencers
are geography, rainfall, wind, and atmosphere.
Our 2020 predictions look at each one through
a retail-centric lens.
Geography:
A Multipolar
World Leaning
to the Pacific
In Kantar’s December 2019 global Top
50 retailer list, seven of the top 10
global retailers were American. Only
one — China’s JD.com — was based
outside of the US/Europe.
– Kantar predicts that by 2030,
at least four of the top 10 retailers
in the world will be based in Asia.
– One or more will get there, at least
in part, by acquiring a major US-
or European-based retailer.
This is a bit of a cheat, of course. If we
tracked retailers by gross merchandise
volume (GMV) instead of owned
product sales, Alibaba would already
be close to the largest retailer
in the world. Our European outlook
details how Alibaba will expand its
footprint as a major facilitator of
global cross-border commerce. By
2025, GMV, not net sales, will be how
we evaluate retailers in terms of scale.
A route to market in the 2020s will
require new skills:
– Manufacturers will build sophisticated
networks to understand their
third-party relationships, pricing,
promotional activity, and volumes
to leverage a retail platform most
effectively.
By 2030, at least
four of the top 10
retailers in the world
will be based in Asia.
– Their largest customers will be both
resellers and platforms for other
A cross-border
resellers. A traceable supply chain will go-to-market
be integral, not just for efficiency and
product validation, but for building understanding
and adjusting go-to-market strategy.
will be critical.
– Particularly in Europe and Asia,
a cross-border go-to-market
understanding will be critical.
As Brexit polarizes Europe, European
businesses will look to Asia for growth
through cross-border ecommerce.
The 2020s will also see the rise of
retailers integrating with nonretail
businesses (like CVS in the US,
which is a massive healthcare
company that happens to run
the world’s 10th largest retailer).
– By 2030, five of the top 10 retailers
in the world will be run by companies
that are predominantly not retailers.
They may be advertisers, media
companies, healthcare companies,
communications platforms,
or something else entirely.
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Rainfall:
A Multisegment The 2020s economy
will see a shift
World Leaning in where "rainfall"

On Uncomfortable is fueling growth.

Science
Overall, the 2020s economy will see
a shift in where “rainfall” is fueling
– As they become more scientific —
and less about throwing money
The rest of
growth. With China entering the and people at the problem — the emerging
“mature market” part of business organizations’ growth strategies
portfolios, suppliers and their business for China will be an enormous part world will
partners will need to optimize growth- of 2020s workstreams.
first China strategies into a balance not grow as
of growth and profit. The rest of – Growth in high per capita income
the emerging world will not grow as markets will be driven by winning reliably or as
in “uncomfortable places” — forming
reliably or as quickly as China did in
its growth phase (not to say it was meaningful, nontraditional segments quickly as
easy). That will pressure the high per
capita income parts of the world to
that use new combinations of data
powered by insights teams that can China did in its
grow faster than their relatively slow transform market definitions. growth phase.
growth outlook would indicate.
Our US overview features a relatively
conservative economic outlook, and
our European outlook highlights the
challenges that retailers and suppliers
will have finding volume in these new
patterns of rainfall.

3
Wind: An
Algorithm-Driven
World Leaning
Into Seamless
Experiences
The “wind” of growth will shift
dramatically in the 2020s, polarizing
the retail world into high-speed,
low-friction replenishment and
multiplatform-enabled experiential
discovery.
Retailers that try to hold
the middle as this wind rolls through
will be blown into irrelevance, as will
suppliers that cannot adopt their
go-to-market strategies accordingly.
A major theme of the 2020s will be
the aggregation of last-mile players
that will scale seamless delivery into
viable operating models.
– Always-on commerce will move from
a catchphrase to something close
to reality. For retailers, conversion
opportunities at the moment of
demand will be key. Retailers like
the Chinese content/retail platforms
have a massive advantage here.
Most of the 2020s outside of China
will see suppliers and retailers piecing
together the effectiveness of China’s
integrated platforms across more
fragmented digital/retail landscapes.
– Instacart, Deliveroo, and Meituan
will be major shopper marketing
platforms managed like retailers,
or part of other demand creation
systems like Google/Amazon.
By 2030, at least
25% of the world’s
consumables will
be bought through
algorithm-assisted
auto-replenishment.
– By 2030, at least 25% of the
world’s consumables will be bought
Retailers that
through algorithm-assisted auto- try to hold
replenishment.
– Mastering algorithms means
the middle as
mastering inputs. Inputs in the digital this wind rolls
marketing world are audiences.
Audience management in the 2020s through will
will be as critical a capability as
shopper marketing was from 2000 be blown into
to 2015.
irrelevance.
– Voice will be everywhere, but it won’t
take over shopping. Instead, specific
cases for voice shopping will emerge,
such as using voice to:
– Manage auto-replenishment and
correct exceptions
– Aid discovery for video-powered
home assistants
– Seamlessly integrate a location
inquiry and purchase
– High discovery retail/selling models
will continue. But the trick will
be tying those experiences to an
integrated marketing model. CRM
vocabulary will replace amorphous
notions like traffic drivers and basket
builders to describe how brands work
in retail environments. Customer
acquisition/retention and lifetime
customer value will be foundational
shopper marketing vocabulary.
4
Atmosphere:
Take Action
In the same way that Earth’s changing
atmosphere requires action, so does
the retail/supplier sales and marketing
ecosystem. Concepts like marketing
and sales have congealed into static,
siloed nouns representing fixed ways of
doing things and short-term, outcome-
based metrics. The coming climate
change will require “verb”-al thinking;
that is, turning marketing and sales
back into verbs, not nouns.
– Climate change and environmental
concerns will dominate political,
social, and commercial vocabulary
in the 2020s. Transitioning business
models to sustainable platforms will
be in the 2020s what transitioning
businesses to digital platforms was
in the 2010s. What companies do
will matter more than what they
say or how they brand.
"Organization"
will move from
being a noun
– Verbs like the Five S’s of search, scroll,
subscribe, speak, and share will
replace the nouns of the Four P’s as
marketing and sales goals. Marketing
Verbs like the
Five S’s of search, to being a verb.
and sales in the 2020s is marketing scroll, subscribe,
and selling to people in motion, so
the processes need to be in motion speak, and share
as well.
will replace the
– The blurring of marketing and sales
will turn into creating demand and nouns of the
converting demand. The line between
the two will be more fluid and needs
Four P’s.
to be planned across regularly and
seamlessly.
– “Organization” will move from being
a noun to being a verb as companies
with the nimblest structures,
reporting relationships, and career
paths will disproportionately win.
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Conclusion:
Climate Change
in Modern Retail’s
Seventh Decade
I shared a graphic on LinkedIn that summarizes 60 years of Figure 1. Characteristics of the 2020s Post-Retail
modern retail in one visual, giving each decade a market World
stage name; listing the key shopper, retailer, and supplier
characteristics of that time; and naming a retailer that best Decade 2020s
represented retail in that decade.
Market Stage Post-Retail
For the 2020s, here are my predictions for the market stage
name, key characteristics, and poster retailer (Figure 1). The Poster Alibaba
market stage name? “Post-retail retail.” Demand conversion Retailer
will be an inseparable part of other activities, and store
and nonstore retail will lose their distinctiveness as specific Shopper – 5G-led perpetual connectivity
activities. The retailer I predict will define the 2020s in the Dynamics
post-retail retail world is Alibaba, which doesn’t really buy – Relatively slow global economic
and sell product. Yet its platform-centric, flexible, cross- growth
border model where it creates, converts, and fulfills demand – Great replacement of goods with
with high levels of expertise in an integrated way seems like services
the one most retail will be reacting to or emulating as the – Global culture with national/
decade unfolds. continental boundaries
– Sustainable lifestyles a priorit
This doesn’t mean Alibaba will be the only winner. The key
to the retail world is that thousands of business models
around the world will thrive in the new 2020s climate. Retailer – Conversion everywhere
Those that do will have adapted to the new environment. Strategies – Partnership or integration with About Kantar: Information and follow-up:
content platforms Kantar is the world’s leading data, insights switchon@kantarconsulting.com
– Logistics networks fulfill everywhere and consulting company. We understand more consulting.kantar.com
about how people think, feel, shop, share, vote
– Algorithmic auto-replenishment
and view than anyone else. Combining our Predictions 2020+: The age of post-retail retail
mastered
expertise in human understanding with advanced Bryan Gildenberg, Chief Knowledge Officer
– Tech-fueled experiential discovery technologies, Kantar’s 30,000 people help the for Retail, Sales & Shopper
world’s leading organisations succeed and grow.
Supplier – Audience management ©2020 Kantar Consulting LLC. Some rights reserved.
Response – Basket management
Bryan Gildenberg – Algorithmic conversion
Chief Knowledge Officer – Sustainable sourcing and
manufacturing
– Marketing and sales divide
disappears

Source: Kantar