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CS PFG Asia Market Overview Presentation - February 2021
CS PFG Asia Market Overview Presentation - February 2021
CS PFG Asia Market Overview Presentation - February 2021
February 2021
These materials may not be used or relied upon for any purpose other than as specifically contemplated by a written agreement
with Credit Suisse AG or its Affiliates (hereafter “Credit Suisse”). For qualified investors only. Strictly not for redistribution.
Global fundraising overview
Despite the challenges presented by the global COVID-19 pandemic, the fundraising market demonstrated significant resilience during 2020, albeit
with a drop in global fundraising volumes
Investors and managers adapted quickly to the world of virtual meetings, although with a skew towards existing relationships and established firms
where there is already a pre-existing dialogue
Long-term interest in the asset class remains robust, with the resilience in 2020 underscoring LP commitment to the market
̶ Private equity AUM is projected to more than double from 2020 to 2025, growing at 15.6% CAGR over the period
̶ By 2025, private equity is projected to reach $9.1 trillion in global AUM, from $4.4 trillion AUM at the end of 2020
̶ 35% of LPs are expected to increase their allocations to the asset class in 2021
In a world of maturing investor PE programs, PFG sees investors concentrating capital to a core universe of relationships, while seeking attractive,
differentiated new managers to complement their existing portfolio
Continuing a growing trend, co-investment, secondaries and directs represent an increasingly strong theme in the market, with record levels of
capital available to secondary funds and an increasing number of underlying institutions focused on these market segments
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
North America Europe Asia ROW
While 2020 was a challenging year for fundraising in light of COVID-19, long term interest in the asset class in remains
intact heading into 2021
Source: Preqin, as of January 2021; Coller Global Private Equity Barometer Winter 2020-2021, CS PFG Analysis. * By year of final close.
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Asia remains a key driver of global growth
2015-2019 2020-2025E
Breakdown of global Nominal GDP (2020) Private equity backed M&A as a percentage of Nominal
ROW GDP (2020)
8%
1.9%
Europe
1.5%
25% Asia
Asia represents 38%
of global GDP 38%
0.8%
North America
29% Asia-Pacific Europe North America
Asia is home to the majority of the world’s population and remains a principal driver of global growth, yet is
significantly under-penetrated by private equity relative to Western markets
90%
300 287
80%
257 261
250 70%
Australia / NZ Greater China India Japan SE Asia South Korea ROW Venture Other Growth Infra / Natural Resources Buyout Balanced Credit
Asian fundraising continued consolidating, with a smaller number of groups taking up the majority of capital raised
LPs were primarily focused on ascertaining impact of COVID Recovery in public market and private market portfolios has
Investor on existing portfolio stabilized investor programs, with most continuing to actively
Sentiment Concerns about denominator effect exacerbated perceived invest 2020/21 allocations, including “new commitments”
issues Some investors continue to be impacted more heavily (e.g.
Most investors only pursued re-ups or continued with endowments and foundations)
diligence processes that were substantially completed Particular caution around first-time managers
Keen not to miss out on potentially good vintages
Investor processes typically delayed due to travel restrictions Many LPs are now willing to complete diligence virtually, and
Diligence around onsites and/or for further analysis of the portfolio in some cases without ever meeting the GP in person
Process impact of COVID-19 In certain high-velocity fundraisings, GPs are able to create
Happy to continue desktop work, but more difficult to get efficiency around the diligence process by utilizing recorded
commitments over the line or start serious work on new GPs videos and/or introducing group diligence sessions as a
they had not previously met in person supplement to one-on-one due diligence sessions
Reference calls more important, especially with other LPs
Some LPs deferred investment decisions in order to monitor LPs have adjusted to the “new normal” and are comfortable
Fundraising market and portfolio developments (particularly with a focus meeting with GPs virtually
on Q2 2020 marks) However, a meaningful portion of the LP market
Mechanics −
Some GPs paused roadshow activity while focusing on their remains reticent to make new commitments to
portfolios and their go-forward fundraising strategy managers without meeting in person
Familiarity with calls and “boardroom-to-boardroom” video Video calls make roadshows more efficient: GPs are able to
calls, but less so with Zoom, Teams, etc. meet with clients in multiple time zones in a single day
− Can lead to expedited fundraises for “hot funds”
LPs have significantly increased bandwidth, given that they
are no longer travelling to onsites and AGMs
LP appetite has rebounded following a period of reduced activity in Q2 2020, and while the market remains challenging
for new capital commitments, the fundraising market has quickly adapted to the “new normal”
Global net cash flow to LPs Asian net cash flow to LPs
(US$, billions) (US$, billions)
500 456 40
438 33
417 411 31 30 30
386 29
400 353 359 30 27
288 20
300
240 20
13 12 13
200 11
157
140 10
5 5
87
100
52
0
0
-10
-100
-14 -14
-20 -17
-200 -158 -165 -20 -19
-20
-207 -22 -23
-230 -236 -236 -24
-30 -26
-300
-282 -270 -273 -30 -30
-323 -317
-346 -345 -35
-400 -40
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 H1 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 H1
2020 2020
Contributions by Year Distributions by Year Net Cash Flow Contributions by Year Distributions by Year Net Cash Flow
Net cash flows weakened globally in 2020, resulting from reduced exit activity in light of COVID-19
Source: ThomsonOne, latest available as of December 2020. Net cash flow to LPs defined as cash distributions less contributions.
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Secondary market growth and the rise of GP-led transactions
The secondary market has continued to grow significantly with a broader range of transaction types being
contemplated
$20
$11bn
$10
Single-asset
continuation
$0 fund volume
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Single-asset continuation fund Total GP-led secondary Total secondary market
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
-50%
-60%
-70%
YTD Performance 2020 Peak to Trough GFC Peak to Trough
GFC peak
14 18 12 16 16 18 to trough
(months)
Source: (1) FactSet – Minimum VIX on 17th January, and Max VIX on 16th March. (2) IMF October World Economic Outlook. (3) Credit Suisse U.S. Equity
Strategy Navigator, 2 December 2020. Data as of December 2020. 8
Between Q1’20 and Q3’20 valuations recovered following initial sharp declines
We have gathered c. 70 reported valuations across various fund strategies starting with Q4’19 to Q3’20 for which we have compared the QoQ NAV
performance change
Buyout and Private Debt strategies each declined by c. 8% on average between Q4’19 and Q1’20, however reported NAVs have shown a
meaningful bounce back since Q2’20, which contradicted the market’s initial expectations for further declines
Buyout strategies steadily improved QoQ up to Q3’20 and have recovered since the initial shock in Q1’20
Private Debt strategies have shown a slower recovery when compared to Buyout strategies QoQ NAV performance
Real Assets proved to be the most resilient strategy in terms of QoQ NAV performance throughout the year, initially experiencing a small decline of
2% in NAVs in Q1’20 while recovering by Q3’20
20%
10% 9%
8%
4% 5%
0% 3% 1%
-2%
-10% -8% -8%
-20%
-30%
-40%
Buyout Private Debt Real Assets
Source: CS PFG market intelligence. Data as of December 2020. Historical performance indications and financial market scenarios are not reliable indicators of
current or future performance. Sample size; Q1 and Q2 = 66, Q3 = 38 9
Pan-Asia private equity market map
RRJ Capital
Master Fund IV
Bain
Navis Asia TPG Asia
L Catterton Capital
Fund VIII VII
Headland Private Equity Asia 3 Asia IV
Fund 7 (HSBC) Crescent Asia
Consumer & Deep
ShawKwei Asia Value Fund II
Value Fund 2017
NewQuest Asia Fund North Haven
IV (Secondaries) Private Equity Asia Fund V
Gateway Fund II Quadria Carlyle Asia Growth
(Morgan Stanley)
Fund II Partners VI
OrbiMed Asia EQT Mid Market
Olympus Capital Asia V Unitas Partners IV Asia Fund IV
Opportunity Fund IV
Note: Arbitrary horizontal placement within each band. Size of bubble is indicative of fund size.
Data source: Preqin, Credit Suisse PFG market knowledge. Data as of December 2020. 10
Asian private credit and special situations market map
AION Capital Edelweiss India Kotak Special ADM Asia Private ARCM
ADV Tor Asia
Partners Stressed Assets Situations Fund Avenue Asia Special Credit Fund
Opportunities Credit Fund II
Fund II Situations VI
Farallon Asia
Fund II
Special Situations
Baring Private
Equity Asia Credit ShoreVest Sammasan
DCP China KKR Asia Private
India Fund II Distressed Credit PAG China Capital Asia OCP Asia
Credit Fund III Varde Asia Credit Fund
Fund II Special Situations Fund Credit Opp Fund I Fund IV
Credit Fund II
Olympus Capital
Clearwater Capital Clearwater Captial
DCL Special Shoreline China ASM Connaught Asia Credit
High Tang Fund I Arkkan Partners Fund V Yield Fund LIM Asia
Situations USD Value IV House Fund III
Fund I
Direct lending focus
Note: Arbitrary horizontal placement within each band. Size of bubble is indicative of fund size.
Data source: Preqin, Credit Suisse PFG market knowledge. Data as of December 2020. 11
Southeast Asia private equity market map
Equis Asia
(Corporate Structure)
Saratoga
Asia Fund IV Southern Tower Capital
Capital Fund IV KV Asia PE Fund I
Capital II
North Haven Thai
Private Equity Lakeshore Capital II Quvat Capital
(Thailand) Creador IV
Falcon House Partners III Novo Tellus PE
Provident Lombard
Partners Indonesia Growth Fund II Fund 2
Asia V
Fund 3
Abraaj / Aureos South-East Vickers
Asia Fund III TAP Venture Fund II Ventures VI
SEAVI Advent Asia Partners I
Dymon Asia Private Equity Jungle Venture Equity VII Caldera Pacific
(S.E. Asia) Fund II Southeast Asian Openspace
Fund I
Vietnam Investments Mekong Enterprise Fund III Ventures III
Fund III Fund IV Golden Gate Innovent Enterprise
Golden Gate Growth Fund I Tech Fund I
Vertex
Ventures SEA IV Ventures III
Asia Green Capital
Brummer & Partners Capsquare Asia Private Equity New Formation
Leopard Capital Renewable Energy Renewables
Navegar Fund II Partners II Markets IV Group Fund I Altair ASEAN Fund
Multiple Frontier Funds Asia Fund II
Note: Arbitrary horizontal placement within each band. Size of bubble is indicative of fund size.
Data source: Preqin, Credit Suisse PFG market knowledge. Data as of December 2020. 12
China private equity market map
Funds by strategy, siz e and year of last fundraise
Note:
Funds located in Greater China only
Growth, buyout as defined by Preqin Hillhouse
Warburg Pincus Private Equity
Real estate, infrastructure, mezzanine, distressed debt, fund of funds, Boyu Primavera
China and SE Fund V
Capital Capital
RMB funds, funds <$100M in size, and older fund generations excluded Hopu Asia Fund II
Fund V Fund IV
Fund IV
Average investm ent siz e
Trustbridge
Partners VII
Yunfeng
CITIC DCP Capital CITIC Capital
Fund IV CDH Centurium
PE China Fund II China
Caijin Partners IV Fund VI Capital II
Fund IV
Fosun Hony
Weishi Capital Vivo
Fund Fund IX Capital FountainVest
Vision Knight Asia-Germany Fund IX China
SAIF Partners V
Capital Partners III Industrial Promotion Partners IV Advantech Capital Fund II
Capital Fund II (New Horizon)
Genesis Redview Capital Fund
Principle Capital China II (New Horizon)
Fund VI IDG China Capital Sequoia Capital China Fund II
Lunar Capital Ascendent Orchid
China V Fund III Growth Fund VI Asia VII
Capital
HAO Capital III C-Bridge China Broadband Partners III Jeneration
Healthcare Capital IV Yuan Fund III
Fund V Capital Pagoda M31 Capital I
Kailai China III Bull Capital China Fund I
Fund I
Growth Fund II Cathay Sino-
Ally Bridge (fka Clarity)
Tripod Capital III NDE Fund II French Midcap
Group Flagship
Fund II CMC Loyal Valley
Capital Partners Nexus Point
Capital GenBridge Fund I Capital III USD Fund III PAG Growth Buyout Fund I
Today III
Forebright New Fund II
Jiuding China
Opportunities II Everbright
Growth Fund III Milestone China New Economy
Opps Fund IV GL Capital CDH USD Joy Capital USD Fund II
CICC Growth
CEC Fund III ClearVue Fund III Maison Growth Fund II Opportunity Fund
Partners III CMH Growth Fund Capital III Capital Fund II
Vitalbridge I Greenwoods
CDIB Capital
Fund III Mandarin Capital Innovision Capital Cowin Capital Ocean Link
Prax Capital IV Hosen Capital LYZZ Capital II Asia Partners
ZWC Capital II Fund IV Partners III Fund I USD Fund II USD Fund II
Note: Arbitrary horizontal placement within each band. Size of bubble is indicative of fund size.
Data source: Preqin, Credit Suisse PFG market knowledge. Data as of December 2020. 13
China venture capital market map
Venture funds
Potentially returning to No imminent Evergreen
Raising 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011
market in the next 12 months fundraising plans Structure
Note: Arbitrary horizontal placement within each band. Size of bubble is indicative of fund size.
Data source: Preqin, Credit Suisse PFG market knowledge. Data as of December 2020. 14
Korea private equity market map
MBK
Average investment size
Partners V
Note: Arbitrary horizontal placement within each band. Size of bubble is indicative of fund size.
Data source: Preqin, Credit Suisse PFG market knowledge. Data as of December 2020. 15
Japan private equity market map
Carlyle Japan
Japan KIKAN Polaris Private Partners IV
Fund I Equity Fund V
Japan Industrial Japan Industrial
Solutions Fund II Partners
Average investment size
Fund V
Bain Capital
Japan Fund I
Advantage Integral NSSK Fund III
Partners VI Fund IV
Marunouchi T Capital
Capital Fund II Partners
Unison Capital Fund VI
Partners V
AG Fund III Longreach Capital
(Aspirant) Partners 4
Note: Arbitrary horizontal placement within each band. Size of bubble is indicative of fund size.
Data source: Preqin, Credit Suisse PFG market knowledge. Data as of December 2020. 16
Australia private equity market map
Quadrant
Adamantem
No. 6
Pioneer Capital CHAMP Archer Capital II BGH Capital
Buyout Quadrant Growth
Partners III Ventures No. 8 Capital VI Fund I
Growth
Advent Partners
Evolution Healthcare Fund 2
Partners No 1
Allegro
Arowana Australia Special Helmsman PE III
Situations Fund Safe Harbour Fund Anchorage III
Note: Arbitrary horizontal placement within each band. Size of bubble is indicative of fund size.
Data source: Preqin, Credit Suisse PFG market knowledge. Data as of December 2020. 17
India private equity market map
Note:
Fund type as defined by Preqin
Real estate, mezzanine, distressed debt, INR funds, funds <$100M
in size, and older fund generations excluded
Average investment size
Note: Arbitrary horizontal placement within each band. Size of bubble is indicative of fund size. Data source: Preqin, Credit
Suisse PFG market knowledge. Data as of December 2020. 18
Asian Opportunistic Real Estate – Pan-Regional (selected)
Blackstone RE
Asia II
PAG
Opportunistic Alpha Asia
Average investment size
AG Asia Realty
Fund IV
Real Estate Capital
Asia Partners V Blackrock Asia
Property V
Aetos Japan Real Estate
Value-Add Fund PAG Real Estate
Partners II BPE Asia Real
Estate Fund II
Note: Arbitrary horizontal placement within each band. Size of bubble is indicative of fund size.
Data source: Preqin, Credit Suisse PFG market knowledge. Data as of December 2020. 19
Asian Opportunistic Real Estate – Country focused (selected)
Mapletree
Average investment size
Macquarie Chinese
Real Estate Fund III
Note: Arbitrary horizontal placement within each band. Size of bubble is indicative of fund size.
Data source: Preqin, Credit Suisse PFG market knowledge. Data as of December 2020. 20
Credit Suisse Private Fund Group overview
The Private Fund Group (“PFG”), founded in 1994, is a global placement agent and advisory group
PFG has worked with clients raising 412 funds aggregating over $581 billion in capital
PFG has an integrated Capital Solutions team, which has advised on ~$49 billion of secondary, direct and co-investment transactions
Source: Credit Suisse PFG data, as of December 2020. The PFG works in partnership with Credit Suisse Asset Management Distribution in Santiago and Tokyo.
Note: Darker shaded areas indicate countries where the PFG has dialogue with institutional investors 21
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