DATOS PARA HYDROGNOMON - Est.

CHILCAYOC

Precipitación máxima de 24 horas de

Id Año
duración (mm)
1 1964 20.00
2 1965 34.50
3 1966 27.60
4 1967 25.90
5 1968 21.40
6 1969 46.00
7 1970 46.40
8 1971 28.70
9 1972 23.20
10 1973 23.20
11 1974 33.40
12 1975 17.50
13 1976 22.40
14 1977 16.40
15 1978 16.80
16 1979 14.80
17 1980 14.70
18 1981 21.10
19 1982 25.40
20 1983 16.10
21 1984 16.00
22 1985 16.70
23 1986 24.00
24 1987 20.00
25 1988 20.90
26 1989 20.90
27 1990 24.00
28 1991 26.20
29 1992 18.00
30 1993 25.80
31 1994 23.20
32 1995 22.20
33 1996 25.60
34 1997 19.30
35 1998 29.30
36 1999 35.70
37 2000 47.00
38 2001 44.00
39 2002 31.70
40 2003 34.70
41 2004 28.40
42 2005 28.90
43 2006 35.40
44 2007 35.50
45 2008 23.30
46 2009 27.70
47 2010 36.50
48 2011 33.70
49 2012 37.30
50 2013 30.20
51 2014 36.00
52 2015 27.80
53 2016 19.60
54 2017 33.90
55 2018 26.60
56 2019 26.40
57 2020 29.40
58 2021 35.10
Promedio 27.11
Desv. Estándar (Sy) 8.17
Coef. Asimetría (Cs) 0.62
Cs/6 0.10
n 58
 PRUEBAS DE BONDAD DE AJUSTE CON PROGRAMA HYDROGNOMON

T = 10000
Kolmogorov-Smirnov test for:All data a=1% a=5% a=10% Attained a DMax T = 2 años T = 5 años T = 10 años T = 25 años T = 50 años T = 100 años T = 200 años T = 500 años T = 1000 años
años
Normal ACCEPT ACCEPT ACCEPT 92.42% 0.072 27.11 33.99 37.58 41.41 43.89 46.11 48.15 50.62 52.35 57.49
Normal (L-Moments) ACCEPT ACCEPT ACCEPT 92.58% 0.072 27.11 34.00 37.59 41.43 43.91 46.14 48.18 50.66 52.39 57.54
LogNormal ACCEPT ACCEPT ACCEPT 90.04% 0.075 25.96 33.27 37.87 43.49 47.55 51.53 55.47 60.64 64.55 77.69
Galton ACCEPT ACCEPT ACCEPT 96.13% 0.066 26.30 33.57 37.89 42.95 46.48 49.85 53.10 57.27 60.35 70.30
Exponential ACCEPT ACCEPT ACCEPT 31.05% 0.127 24.60 32.09 37.75 45.24 50.90 56.56 62.22 69.71 75.37 94.18
Exponential (L-Moments) ACCEPT ACCEPT ACCEPT 20.88% 0.140 24.28 32.74 39.13 47.59 53.99 60.39 66.79 75.25 81.65 102.90
Gamma ACCEPT ACCEPT ACCEPT 97.14% 0.064 26.29 33.64 37.96 42.95 46.39 49.63 52.72 56.61 59.45 68.39
Pearson III ACCEPT ACCEPT ACCEPT 96.91% 0.065 26.27 33.62 37.97 43.01 46.48 49.75 52.88 56.83 59.71 68.79
Log Pearson III ACCEPT ACCEPT ACCEPT 92.72% 0.072 25.95 33.38 38.09 43.83 48.00 52.08 56.12 61.44 65.47 79.03
EV1-Max (Gumbel) ACCEPT ACCEPT ACCEPT 82.58% 0.082 25.77 32.99 37.77 43.81 48.29 52.74 57.17 63.02 67.44 82.12
EV2-Max ACCEPT ACCEPT ACCEPT 26.08% 0.132 25.15 31.32 36.22 43.51 49.85 57.07 65.29 77.98 89.18 139.25
EV1-Min (Gumbel) ACCEPT ACCEPT ACCEPT 21.98% 0.138 28.45 33.82 36.10 38.24 39.48 40.52 41.41 42.43 43.10 44.93
EV3-Min (Weibull) ACCEPT ACCEPT ACCEPT 89.94% 0.075 27.21 34.15 37.61 41.17 43.39 45.35 47.09 49.16 50.59 54.67
GEV-Max ACCEPT ACCEPT ACCEPT 96.46% 0.066 26.22 33.59 38.02 43.15 46.65 49.88 52.87 56.51 59.04 66.25
GEV-Min ACCEPT ACCEPT ACCEPT 99.05% 0.058 26.17 33.86 38.24 43.10 46.33 49.28 52.02 55.37 57.75 64.88
Pareto ACCEPT ACCEPT ACCEPT 68.82% 0.094 25.61 34.59 39.26 43.53 45.74 47.35 48.52 49.59 50.14 51.10
GEV-Max (L-Moments) ACCEPT ACCEPT ACCEPT 96.01% 0.066 26.06 33.57 38.22 43.74 47.61 51.25 54.71 59.01 62.08 71.25
GEV-Min (L-Moments) ACCEPT ACCEPT ACCEPT 99.07% 0.058 26.05 33.87 38.40 43.47 46.86 49.97 52.86 56.43 58.96 66.60
EV1-Max (Gumbel, L-Moments) ACCEPT ACCEPT ACCEPT 89.96% 0.075 25.71 33.25 38.25 44.57 49.25 53.90 58.53 64.64 69.26 84.60
EV2-Max (L-Momments) ACCEPT ACCEPT ACCEPT 53.92% 0.105 24.64 31.86 37.77 46.83 54.94 64.36 75.36 92.81 108.62 183.13
EV1-Min (Gumbel, L-Moments) ACCEPT ACCEPT ACCEPT 22.73% 0.137 28.51 34.12 36.51 38.74 40.04 41.12 42.06 43.12 43.82 45.74
EV3-Min (Weibull, L-Moments) ACCEPT ACCEPT ACCEPT 90.01% 0.075 27.21 34.14 37.60 41.15 43.36 45.31 47.05 49.12 50.54 54.61
Pareto (L-Moments) ACCEPT ACCEPT ACCEPT 98.02% 0.062 25.88 34.84 39.15 42.80 44.56 45.76 46.57 47.26 47.59 48.09
GEV-Max (kappa specified) ACCEPT ACCEPT ACCEPT 44.47% 0.113 25.25 31.76 36.71 43.83 49.81 56.39 63.68 74.53 83.79 122.43
GEV-Min (kappa specified) ACCEPT ACCEPT ACCEPT 61.64% 0.099 27.78 34.13 37.08 39.99 41.75 43.27 44.60 46.14 47.19 50.13
GEV-Max (kappa specified, L-Moments) ACCEPT ACCEPT ACCEPT 67.70% 0.095 24.99 32.41 38.05 46.17 52.97 60.48 68.78 81.15 91.70 135.73
GEV-Min (kappa specified, L-Moments) ACCEPT ACCEPT ACCEPT 61.82% 0.099 27.78 34.17 37.14 40.07 41.84 43.36 44.70 46.26 47.31 50.26
 PRUEBA DE BONDAD SMIRNOV KOLMOGOROV

Distribución de Ajuste para Series Hidrologicas Dmáx % Ajuste D crítico Ajuste Observación
Normal 0.07204 92.42% 0.179 Bueno
LogNormal 0.07496 90.04% 0.179 Bueno
Gamma 0.06401 97.14% 0.179 Bueno Presenta el menor Dmáx
Pearson III 0.06454 96.91% 0.179 Bueno
Log Pearson III 0.07164 92.72% 0.179 Bueno
EV1-Max (Gumbel) 0.08240 82.58% 0.179 Bueno

* Se concluye que las distribuciones que mejor se ajustan son las distribuciones Normal, LogNormal, Pearson III, Log Pearson III, Gamma

Distribución elegida Gamma

Periodo de Retorno T = 1000 T = 10000

T = 2 años T = 5 años T = 10 años T = 25 años T = 50 años T = 100 años T = 200 años T = 500 años
(años) años años
Precipitación Máxima
26.29 33.64 37.96 42.95 46.39 49.63 52.72 56.61 59.45 68.39
en 24 horas (mm)
Pmax Corregida Segun
29.71 38.01 42.90 48.54 52.42 56.08 59.57 63.97 67.18 77.28
la OMM
* Precipitación maxima de 24 horas de duración afectada por un factor de corrección de 1,13 (OMM, 1994).

Valores críticos d para la prueba Kolmogorov – Smirnov Tamaño de la Muestra 58.00

Tamaño de la muetra a = 0.01 a = 0.05 a = 0.10 D Critico 0.21
5 0.67 0.56 0.51
10 0.49 0.41 0.37 Para Valores que no estan en la Tabla el D-Critico es igual:
15 0.40 0.34 0.30
20 0.35 0.29 0.26 𝟏. 𝟑𝟔
𝑨= = 0.179
25 0.32 0.26 0.24 𝒏
30 0.29 0.24 0.22 n = Tamaño de Muestra
35 0.27 0.22 0.20
40 0.25 0.21 0.19
Fuente: Aparicio, 1999.
 ESTADISTICOS DATOS
Data count 58
Non zero percent (%) 100
Mean value 27.1103
Standard deviation 8.1685
Third central moment 340.395
Skewness 0.62453
Kurtosis -0.06531
Mean value of y=Ln(x) 3.25602
Std. dev. of y=Ln(x) 0.29949
Third c. moment -//- 0.00029
Skewness r -//- 0.01074
LogNormal my 3.25647
LogNormal sy 0.29478
Galton my 3.66296
Galton sy 0.20318
Galton c -12.679
Exponential c 18.9418
Exponential Lambda 0.12242
Gamma Kappa 11.015
Gamma Lambda 0.4063
Pearson III Kappa 10.2553
Pearson III Lambda 0.39204
Pearson III c 0.95163
Log Pearson III Kappa 34708.8
Log Pearson III Lambda 622.064
Log Pearson III c -52.5402
EV-1 (Gumbel) Max Lambda 6.37143
EV-1 (Gumbel) Max Psi 3.67778
EV-2 Max Kappa 0.1935
EV-2 Max Lambda 4.53406
EV-1 (Gumbel) Min Lambda 6.37143
EV-1 (Gumbel) Min Psi 4.83218
EV-3 (Weibull) Min Kappa 0.26969
EV-3 (Weibull) Min Lambda 8.10087
GEV Max Kappa -0.1028
GEV Max Lambda 7.15627
GEV Max Psi 3.30417
GEV Min Kappa 0.49761
GEV Min Lambda 8.81301
GEV Min Psi 3.30496
Pareto Kappa 0.46262
Pareto Lambda 16.5774
Pareto Psi 0.95168
LMoment: L1 27.1103
LMoment: L2 4.61561
LMoment: L3 0.57437
LMoment: L4 6.1882
L-Skewness (tau-3) 0.12444
L-Kurtosis (tau-4) 1.34071
LM-Normal mx 27.1103
LM-Normal sx 8.18095
LM-Exponential c 17.8791
LM-Exponential Lambda 0.10833
LM-EV-1 (Gumbel) Max Lambda 6.65891
LM-EV-1 (Gumbel) Max Psi 3.49409
LM-EV-2 Max Kappa 0.22682
LM-EV-2 Max Lambda 5.14247
LM-EV-1 (Gumbel) Min Lambda 6.65891
LM-EV-1 (Gumbel) Min Psi 4.64849
LM-EV-3 (Weibull) Min Kappa 0.26926
LM-EV-3 (Weibull) Min Lambda 8.08697
LM-GEV Max Kappa -0.07176
LM-GEV Max Lambda 7.08551
LM-GEV Max Psi 3.31559
LM-GEV Min Kappa 0.52343
LM-GEV Min Lambda 8.94913
LM-GEV Min Psi 3.24486
LM-Pareto Kappa 0.55732
LM-Pareto Lambda 18.382
LM-Pareto Psi 0.8327
GEV Max (k spc.) Kappa 0.15
GEV Max (k spc.) Lambda 4.98412
GEV Max (k spc.) Psi 4.68945
GEV Min (k spc.) Kappa 0.15
GEV Min (k spc.) Lambda 7.4699
GEV Min (k spc.) Psi 4.07567
LM-GEV Max (k spc.) Kappa 0.15
LM-GEV Max (k spc.) Lambda 5.67985
LM-GEV Max (k spc.) Psi 4.02318
LM-GEV Min (k spc.) Kappa 0.15
LM-GEV Min (k spc.) Lambda 7.51423
LM-GEV Min (k spc.) Psi 4.05426