MATHS PROJECT

PROBABILITY
-ISHITA SHARAF︎
XI-C︎
 TOPIC​

Construct the tree structure of the outcomes of a random

experiment, when elementary events are not equally
likely. Also construct a sample space by taking a suitable
example.
INTRODUCTION​
Let us consider an example of tossing a fair coin (not a prank coin).
There are only two possible outcomes – a head or a tail. Also, it is
impossible to accurately predict the outcome (a head or a tail). In
mathematical theory, we consider only those experiments or
observations, for which we know the set of possible outcomes. Also,
it is important that predicting a particular outcome is impossible.
Such an experiment, where we know the set of all possible results
but find it impossible to predict one at any particular execution, is a
random experiment.
Even if a random experiment is repeated under identical
conditions, the outcomes or results may fluctuate or vary
randomly. Let’s look at another example – you take a fair dice
and roll it using a box.

When the dice lands there are only six possible outcomes – 1,
2, 3, 4, 5, or 6. However, predicting which one will occur at
any roll of the dice is completely unpredictable.
OBJECTIVE​
Probability trees are useful for calculating combined probabilities. It
helps us to map out the probabilities of many possibilities graphically,
without the use of complicated probability equations.

Sometimes we don’t know whether to multiply or add probabilities. A

probability tree makes it easier for us to figure out when to add and
when to multiply. Also by seeing a graph of my problem, as opposed to
a bunch of equations and numbers on a sheet of paper, it often can help
me see the problem more clearly.
PREVIOUS KNOWLEDGE
Further, in any experiment, there are certain terms that we need to know:

—  Trial – A trial is the performance of an experiment.

—  Outcomes – Whenever we perform an experiment, we get an outcome. For

example, when a coin is flipped, the outcome is either heads or tails. Similarly,
when we roll a dice, the outcome is 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6.

—  Event – An event is a collection of basic outcomes with specific properties. For

example, ‘E’ is the event where our roll of a six-sided dice has an outcome of
less than or equal to 3. Therefore, E is the collection of basic outcomes where
the result is 3 or less. Symbolically, E = {O1, O2, O3}. It is important to note that
depending on the event, the outcomes can be of any number (even zero).
Random Experiment – Types of Events

In a random experiment, the following types of events are possible:

Simple Events
Simple or Elementary events are those which we cannot decompose further. For
example, when we toss a coin, there are only two possible outcomes (heads or
tails).

The event that the toss turns up a ‘head’ is a simple event and so is the event of it
turning up a ‘tail’. Similarly, when we roll a six-sided dice, then the event that
number 3 comes up is a simple event.

The Compound or Composite events are those which we can decompose into
elementary or simple events. In simpler words, an elementary event corresponds to
a single possible outcome of an experiment.
Compound Events
On the other hand, a compound event is an aggregate of some elementary events
and we can decompose it into simple events.

To furnish further examples, when we toss a fair coin, the event ‘turning up of a
head or a tail’ is a compound event. This is because we can decompose this event
into two simple events – (i) turning up of the head and (ii) turning up of the tail.

Similarly, when we roll a six-sided dice, the event that an odd number comes up is a
compound event. This is because we can break it down into three simple events –
(i) Number 1 comes up, (ii) Number 3 comes up, and (iii) The third odd number 5
comes up.
Equally Likely Events
If among all possible events, we cannot expect either one to occur in preference in
the same experiment, after taking all conditions into account, then the events are
Equally Likely Events.

Examples of Equally Likely Events

Tossing a fair coin has two simple events associated with it. The coin will turn up a
‘head’ or a ‘tail’. Now, there is an equal chance of either turning up and we cannot
expect one to turn up more frequently than the other. Also, in the case of rolling a
six-sided dice, there are six equally likely events.
Mutually Exclusive Events
In a random experiment, if the occurrence of one event prevents the occurence of
any other event at the same time, then these events are Mutually Exclusive Events.

Examples of Mutually Exclusive Events

When we toss a fair coin, the turning up of heads and turning up of tails are two
mutually exclusive events. This is because if one turns up, then the other cannot
turn up in the same experiment.

Similarly, when we roll a six-sided dice, there are six mutually exclusive events.

We must note that mutually exclusive events cannot occur simultaneously in the
same experiment. Also, they may or may not be equally likely.
Independent Events
Two or more events are Independent Events if the outcome of one does not affect
the outcome of the other. For example, if we toss a coin twice, then the result of the
second throw is not affected by the result of the first throw.

Dependent Events
Two or more events are Dependent Events if the occurrence or non-occurrence of
one in any trial affects the probability of the other events in other trials.
Examples of Dependent Events

—  Let’s say that the event is drawing a Queen from a pack of 52 cards. When we
start with a new deck of cards, the probability of drawing a Queen is ​ 4/52  .
However, if we manage to draw a Queen in one trial and do not replace the card
in the pack, then the probability of drawing a Queen in the remaining trials
becomes ​3/51 =​1/17 .

Exhaustive Events

—  In order to understand Exhaustive Events, let’s take a quick look at the concept
of Sample Space.
Sample Space
The Sample Space (S) of an experiment is the set of all possible outcomes of the
experiment.

Going back to our coin, the sample space is S = {H, T} … where H-heads and T-
tails. Similarly, when we roll a six-sided dice, the sample space is S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5,
6}. Every possibility is a sample point or element of the sample space.

Further, an event is a subset of the sample space and can contain one or more
sample points. For example, when we roll a dice, the event that an odd number
appears has three sample points.

Coming back to exhaustive events, the total number of possible outcomes of a

random experiment form an exhaustive set of events. In other words, events are
exhaustive if we consider all possible outcomes.
 PROCEDURE

If I toss a coin three times, what is the probability of getting 3

heads?
The first step is to figure out your probability of getting a heads by tossing the coin once. The
probability is 0.5 (you have a 50% probability of tossing a heads and 50% probability of
tossing a tails). Those probabilities are represented at the ends of each branch.

1ST TOSS

0.5
H

T
0.5
Now, we add two more branches to each branch to represent the second coin toss. The
probability of getting two heads is shown by the red arrow. To get the probability, we
multiply the branches: 0.5 × 0.5 = 0.25 (25%). Therefore, probability for each of the
element in the sample space {HH, HT, TT, TH} is ​1/4 .

0.5
H

0.5
H
2nd TOSS T
0.5

0.5
H
T
0.5

T
0.5
Finally, we add a third row (because we were trying to find the probability of throwing 3
heads). Multiplying across the branches for HHH we get
p(HHH)=0.5 × 0.5 ×0.5 = 0.125

3rd TOSS

0.5
H

0.5 T 0.5
H
0.5
H

0.5 0.5
H T
T 0.5

H
H 0.5
T 0.5
0.5

T
T H 0.5
0.5 0.5

T
0.5
FINDINGS

p(HHH)=0.5 × 0.5 ×0.5 = 0.125

 INTERPRETATION​

Probability trees aren’t just a theoretical tool used the in the classroom — they
are often used by scientists and statisticians in many branches of science,
research and by several government bodies. For example, the tree diagram
was used by the Federal Government as part of an early warning program to
assess the risk of more eruptions on Mount Pinatubo, an active volcano in the
Philippines.
 ​CONCLUSION​

When a coin is tossed three times, the probability of getting 3

heads is 0.125.
Probability has always interested me. Being someone who
loves doodling. This topic gave me the perfect way to combine
the two things. Thus, I choose this topic.
 BIBLIOGRAPHY
I would like to thank my math teacher and my school for giving me this
project. I got to learn many new things through this project. Researching
about this topic was interesting. I used ML Agarwal’s Understanding ISC
Mathematics for this project. The websites I used to help me with this project
are mentioned below.

•  https://seeing-theory.brown.edu/basic-probability/
index.html.
•  https://www.britannica.com/science/probability-theory.
•  https://towardsdatascience.com/basic-probability-theory-
and-statistics-3105ab637213.