ENERGY MIX

FOR THE
PHILIPPINE POWER INDUSTRY

Presented during the 41st Annual National Convention

Institute of Integrated Electrical Engineers of the Philippines Inc
26 November 2016, SMX MOA Pasay City
 1. Using the load curve
STEPS IN (or LDC), determine
DETERMINING mix on the basis of the
components of the
AND ANALYZING load curve; namely,
ENERGY MIX base-load, mid-to-peak
ECONOMICS load, and ancillary.
 0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
8,000
9,000
10,000

7,000
1
88
175
262
349
436
523
610
697
784
871
958
1045
1132
1219
1306
1393
1480
1567
1654
1741
1828
1915
2002
2089
2176
2263
2350
2437
2524
2611
2698
2785
2872
2959
3046
3133
3220
3307
3394
3481
3568
3655
3742
3829
3916
4003
4090
4177
4264
4351
4438
4525
4612
Luzon Demand

4699
4786
4873
4960
5047
5134
5221
5308
5395
5482
5569
5656
5743
5830
5917
6004
6091
6178
6265
6352
6439
6526
6613
6700
6787
6874
6961
7048
7135
7222
7309
7396
7483
7570
7657
7744
7831
7918
8005
8092
8179
8266
8353
8440
8527
8614
8701
 Energy Mix
% of Peak % of Gwh
From LDC
Demand Demand

2015 Luzon LF = 0.75 0.750 Per Unit Total Energy 0.750 100%

2015 Luzon Peak , MW 9,000 100%

2015 Luzon Base, MW 5,000

Ratio of Base to Peak

= Per Unit Base 0.5556 56% Per Unit Base Energy 0.556 74%

Per Unit Mid- Peak

0.194
Per Unit mid- to peak 0.4444 44% Energy 26%

Largest Unit, MW 647

 2. Determine technologies for each
component of the load curve using basic rule
of power system economics of a vertically
integrated utility; namely, a) the base-load
STEPS IN component are supplied by technologies with
high capex and low variable/fuel costs; and,
DETERMINING b) mid- to peak load are supplied by
AND ANALYZING technologies with low capex and high
ENERGY MIX variable/fuel costs. Moreover, they lend
themselves to cycling and on/off operation
ECONOMICS and control of capacity output

8
 0
1,000
2,000
3,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000

4,000
5,000
6,000
1
88
175
262
349
436
523
610
697
784
871
958
1045
1132
1219
1306
1393
1480
1567
1654
1741
1828
1915
2002
2089
2176
2263
2350
2437
2524
2611
2698
2785
2872
2959
3046
3133
3220
3307
3394
3481
3568
3655
3742
3829
3916
4003
4090
4177
4264
4351
4438
4525
4612
4699
4786
4873
4960
5047
Luzon Demand

5134
5221
5308
5395
5482
5569
5656
5743
5830
5917
6004
6091
6178
6265
6352
6439
6526
6613
6700
6787
6874
6961
7048
7135
7222
7309
7396
7483
7570
7657
7744
7831
7918
8005
8092
8179
8266
8353
8440
8527
8614
8701
 Load Curve Fit

Load Curve
Technology
Component

Coal, Geothermal, Base Hydro,

Base Capacity Must-dispatched REs

Hydro, Gas,
Mid-merit Capacity Diesel Engines

Hydro, Gas,
Peaking Capacity Diesel Engines

Hydro, Gas,
Ancillary Capacity Diesel Engines
 Energy Mix
% of Peak % of Gwh
From LDC
Demand Demand

2015 Luzon LF = 0.75 0.750 Per Unit Total Energy 0.750 100%

2015 Luzon Peak , MW 9,000 100%

2015 Luzon Base, MW 5,000

Ratio of Base to Peak

= Per Unit Base 0.5556 56% Per Unit Base Energy 0.556 74%

Per Unit Mid- Peak

0.194
Per Unit mid- to peak 0.4444 44% Energy 26%

Largest Unit, MW 647

 Energy Mix
Peak Load, MW 9,000 2015 Year
Largest Unit, 647
MW
% of
MW (from Approx. Required Required Gross % of
% of Required % of Gwh
Load Curve Capacity Net Capacity+Maint Peak
peak Installed Demand
and LDC) Factor Capacity enance Capacity Demand
Capacity
Base Capacity 5,000 56% 1.00 5,000 6,173 69% 48% 74%
Mid-merit
3,000 33% 3,000 3,508
Capacity
26%
Peaking
1,000 11% 1,000 1,169 73% 52%
Capacity
Ancillary
18% 1,654 1,935
Capacity

Total Demand
100% 9,000
Check

Total with ancillary check 118% 10,654

Total with ancillary+maintenance capacity

12,786
(Required Installed Capacity)
 3. Distribute mix among the technologies
using (1) & (2). Optimize mix on the basis of
the following criteria/constraints:
1) Cost-of electricity generation
STEPS IN 2) Environmental impact
DETERMINING 3) Security of supply
AND ANALYZING a) Indigenous vs. imported
ENERGY MIX b) Weather dependency
c) Geopolitics
ECONOMICS

17
 Must-dispatched REs

MW installed % of Total % of Total MW Installed % of Base % of Base

% Peak Energy at 0.25 Energy at 0.40 % Base Energy at Energy at
Demand CF ave CF ave Demand 0.25 CF 0.40 CF

5.56% 1.85% 2.96% 10.00% 2.50% 4.00%

10.00% 3.33% 5.33% 18.00% 4.50% 7.20%

18.75% 6.25% 10.00% 33.75% 8.44% 13.50%

30.00% 10.00% 16.00% 54.00% 13.50% 21.60%

 • For a utility, generation costs
component will be the same for
all if flat rate. But a Time-of-Use
(TOU) enables those with high
Costs to Load Factor (LF) to get lower
Consumers rates. The deregulated generation
sector mirrors a TOU-based rate
of Mix determination for end-users.
 Rate

Costs to
Consumers
of Mix FIT

Load Factor
 Energy Mix
Technologies
% of
% of % of
Required Must-
Peak Gwh Base Peaking Total
Installed Coal Geo dispatch Gas Oil
Demand Demand Hydro Hydro Check
Capacity ed REs
Base
Capacity 69% 48% 74% 30% 18% 48%
Mid-merit
Capacity
26%
Peaking
73% 52% 12% 30% 10% 52%
Capacity
Ancillary
Capacity
TOTAL 100% 30% 30% 30% 10% 100%

Based on DOE's Installed Capacity Mix

2016 39% 5% 5% 17% 21% 9% 96%
27%
 Energy Mix
% of Technologies
% of Peak Required % of Gwh Must-
Geo Base Peaking Total
Demand Installed Demand Coal dispatched Gas Oil
Hydro Hydro Check
Capacity REs
Base Capacity 69% 48% 74% 30% 18% 48%
Mid-merit
Capacity
26%
Peaking
73% 52% 12% 30% 10% 52%
Capacity
Ancillary
Capacity
TOTAL 100% 30% 30% 30% 10% 100%

Based on DOE's Installed Capacity Mix

2016 39% 5% 5% 17% 21% 9% 96%
27%

Based on Share of Gwh Demand (Energy-based)

47% 27% 26% 100%

2016 61% 8% 2% 29% 100%

71%
 STEPS IN DETERMINING AND ANALYZING ENERGY
MIX ECONOMICS
1. Using the load curve (or LDC), determine mix on the basis of the components of the
load curve; namely, base-load, mid-to-peak load, and ancillary.

2. Determine technologies for each component of the load curve using basic rule of
power system economics of a vertically integrated utility; namely, a) the base-load
component are supplied by technologies with high capex and low variable/fuel costs;
and, b) mid- to peak load are supplied by technologies with low capex and high
variable/fuel costs. Moreover, they lend themselves to cycling and on/off operation
and control of capacity output.

3. Distribute mix among the technologies using (1) & (2). Optimize mix on the basis of
the following criteria/constraints:

1) Cost-of electricity generation

2) Environmental impact
3) Security of supply

a) Indigenous vs. imported

b) Weather dependency
c) Geopolitics

23