CHiNH SACH HITOTNG NAM Nlin CUA DAI LOAN

TRONG BOI CANH CHIEN LimC VANH DAl VA CON OUdNG "
THilllHtlllllN""

Tom tat: Nhd lanh dgo Ddi Loon Thdi Anh Vdn sau khi lin ndm chinh quyin vdo thing
5/2016 dd di ra vd thitc ddy "Chinh sdch hu&ng Nam mai" (NSP) nhdm thodt khdi stf 'f
thudc qud nhiiu vdo mdt nin kinh ti duy nhdt thdng qua viic thdc ddy vd m& rgng hop tut:
v&i cdc thi truang khdc & Bdng Nam A vd Nam A. Bdi viil se tap trung lam ro bdi cdnh ro
d&i ngi dung chti yiu vd nhiing kit qua ban ddu ciia NSP, phdn tich nhiing triin vong vd
thdeh thitc doi v&i NSP Irong bdi cdnh Trung Qudc trien khai Chiin luac "Vanh dai vd Con
duong".
Tir khoa: Dai Loan, Chinh quySn Thai Anh Van, Chinh s4ch hucmg Nam m()i, Chien
hiqc Vanh dai va Con dticmg

^ ^ y ^ i n h sach huong Nam mcti"
V,^ (NSP) la mgt trong 5 nhiem vu
chinh dugc chinh quyen Thai Anh Van de ra,
nhim mo rgng pham vi va nang cao tinh da
d ^ g ciia nen kitih te doi ngoai ctia Dai Loan,
tir bo vi^c le thugc qua nhieu vao mgt nen
kinh te duy nhit (tuc Tnmg Qu6c). NSP
dugc thuc hien trong boi canh quan he hai
bcf dang co xu huong gia tang cang thing,
phia Trung Qu6c thi hanh nhiJng chinh sach
moi nhim gSy ap luc bugc Dai Loan thira
nhan Bdng thugn 92, gay anh huong khong
it d6i vcji viec thirc hien NSP. Ben canh do,
Trung Qu6c cung dang trien khai Chien luge
"Vanh dai va Con duong" (BRI), nhim k a
n6i Chau A, Chau Au, Trung Dong va Chau
Phi thong qua mang lutji giao thong va van
tai khong la. Bai via se tap trung lam ro boi
canh ra doi, ngi dung chu yeu va nhang
• ThS Ngtiitn cmi sinli, Vi?ii Ngliien ciiu Tmng Quoc
•• Bii vi^t tricli til ngtiien ciiu trong Chuong trinh Taiwan
Fellowship 2019.
diem mtji cita NSP; danh gia nhihig thanh
tira bucfc diu ctia NSP; phan tich nhtrng trien
vgng va thach thtic doi vtW NSP trong boi
canh Trung Quoc trien khai BRI.
1. Boi canh ra dM ciia '^Chinh sach
hu-ihig Nam moi" (NSP)
Sir ra dai ctia NSP gan liSn voi su kien
nha lanh dao Thai Anh Van nam chinh
quyen Dai Loan vao thang 5/2016. NSP la
ket qua tong hap ciia nhimg tinh toan chign
luge ciia chinh quyen moi ve tinh hinh trong
nuoc, tinh hinh khu vuc va qudc te.
Thic nhdt, ve tinh hlnh trong ngi bg Bdi
Loan
Ve chinh tri, nha lanh dao Thai Anh Van
len cam quyen voi mgt tinh the luong nan-
nSu ti6p tuc duong 15i than thien voi Trung
Quoc cila nguoi tien nhiem Ma Anh Cim, c6
the ba se mit su Cing hg ctia Dang Dan Tien
(DPP) ctia ba; con neu khieu khich Trung
Quoc sau nhieu nam di lai than tinh giUa jj^:
bo, nhimg thanh tuu kinh te phat triSn ctia

NQHIEN CflU 0 6 M Q M C (i. S6 IO(22ino^oi9^

10
Nghien cicu khoa hpc

D4i Loan rat co thi se bj sup do. Xu huting 2015, sau khi ba Thai Anh Van (liic do la
tien ttW mpt chinh sach ngoai giao nhan dan ling cti vien long thong) de xuit nhirng net
se la mgt ggi mo de chinh quyen mtji the chinh ciia NSP, quan diem nguoi Dai Loan
hifn vai tro ldm hcm ctia Dai Loan trong khac nguai Trung Quoc dai luc o ch6 nguai
ngoai giao quoc te.' Dai Loan bao gom ca nhihig nguoi vg/
Ve kinh ti, truac them cugc bau cti nam chong va cong nhan nhap cu den tir cac nuac
2016, tSng the nen kinh te Dai Loan tang Dong Nam A da tao dugc siic hiit rieng cho
trudng kem, tham chi toe do tang trucmg da Dai Loan cflng nhu cho NSP.'
tut xu6ng con -0,56% vao quy 4 nam 2015.' Thic hai, vi tinh hlnh bin ngodi Ddi Loan
Ben canh do, nhiing thanh tuu kinh te doi Vi quan hi hai ba, viec Nha 12nh dao
ngoai ma Dai Loan dat dugc duoi thai Ma Thai Anh Van khong thu:a nhan "Dong thuan
Anh Ciju la mgt thach thtic lcm d6i vtji ba 92" dan den viec Bac Kinh dinh chi co che
Th^i Anh Van. Cu the, duoi thai Ma Anh doi thoai thucmg xuyen vai Dai Bic da thiet
Cihi, so lugng cac qu6c gia cap die quyen lap voi chinh quyen tien nhifm,' quan he hai
miin thj thuc chg cong dan Dai Loan da tang bo CO xu huting gia tang cang thing, trong
gan gap 3 lan, ciing viec ky ket hiep dinh khi do, nen kinh te Dai Loan dang phu thugc
thuang mai tu do (FTA) vtii New Zealand va qua nhieu vao Trung Quoc dai luc, dieu nay
Singapore.^ Bi gianh dugc them thanh tuu khien chinh quyen Dai Loan bugc phai tinh
tren nen tang nhirng thanh cong da dat dugc tgan chuyen dgi cau tnic nen kinh te.'
nay, chitih quyen Thai Anh Van can co su Vi tinh hinh khu virc Bdng Nam A vd
s ^ g tao va buoc dot pha. Nam A
Vi xd hgi ket cau van hoa xa hgi ctia Dai Cac quoc gia khu vuc Dong Nam A va
Loan bao gom 22 trieu nguai Han, khoang Nam A co nen kinh te tang truang kha nhanh,
550.000 the dan Dai Loan, 680.000 cong dang tra thanh diem den dau tu ngay cang
nhan nhap cu (chti yeu tir Indonesia, Viet hap dan nho so hiiu nguon tai nguyen thien
Nam, Philippines va Malaysia) va khoang nhien va nhan luc doi dao, uu the ve gia
150.000 nguoi nuoc ngoai la vg/chong den thanh lao dgng va gia dit re, co tiem nang thj
ttr cac nuiic Dong Nam A.'' Tir cuoi nam truang tieu dung mcri noi vcri 600 trieu dan,

'James Baron (2016), "Taiwan's friend-buying days are
over". East Asia Forum, 15 Jul 2016, https://www.eastas
iaforum.org/2016/07/15/taiwans-friend-buying-days-are-
over/, truy cSp ngjy 15/8/2019.
'National Statistics Republic of China (Taiwan) (2019),
"(Taiwan) Economic Growth Rate", https;//eng.stat.
gov.tw/point.asp?index=l, fruy cSp ngiy 15/8/2019.
'JamesBaron (2016), Tldd.
* Patrick Schroder & Polina G. Karimova (2019), "How is
Taiwan leading an alternative development approach in
Asia-Pacific?", Institute of Development Studies, 29
March, https://www. ids.ac.uk/opinions/how-is-taiwan-lea
ding-an-altemalive-development-approach-in-asia-
pacific/, truy cap 15/8/2019.
Meremy Chiang & Alan Hao Yang (2018), "A Nation
Reborn? Taiwan's belated recognition of its Southeast
Asian Heritage", The DIplomal, 28 Sep, https://thediplom
at.com/2018/09/a-nation-rebom-taiwans-belated-
recognition-of-its-southeast-asian-herilage/, truy cSp ngiy
1/8/2019
'' Straits Times (2016), "Tsal rejects deadline over 1992
consensus", 23 Jul, https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/
east-asia/tsai-rejects-deadl ine-over-1992-consensus, truy
cap 15/8/2019.
' J a m e s Baron (2016), Tldd.

NGHIEN Via D A N C B^C fl. S010(224) 10-2019 11


trong d6 ting Itip tnmg liru dang khong
ngimg gia tang.* Do do, tiem nang htjp tac
giira Dai Loan voi ASEAN noi chung, va
vcri cac quoc gia thanh vien ASEAN noi
rieng la kha Ion.
2. Nhirng diem mdi ciia NSP va mot so
thanh tmi dat dirgrc
Khdi quit ngi dung NSP
Chinh trong boi canh nhu vay, chinh
quyin Thai Anh Van da dua ra NSP, nham
mo rgng pham vi va nang cao tinh da dang
ctia nen kinh te doi ngoai ctia Dai Loan, tir
bo viec 16 thugc qua nhieu vao mgt nen kinh
te duy nhit (tiic Trung Quoc). Chinh sach
nay nhim thtic day hgp tac vol 18 nuoc (10
nuoc ASEAN, 6 nuiic Nam A, Australia va
New Zealand), djt ra 4 muc tieu chinh bao
g6m: (i) thiic day hgp tac kinh te; (ii) tien
hanh trao doi nhan tai; (iii) chia se nguon tai
nguyen; (iv) ket noi khu v u c '
Vi mat chinh tri, day la chinh sach dap
ting du luan mtii nhit cua ngucri dan Dai
Loan va phan anh ket qua bau cu. Chinh phii
moi cin ap dung mgt chinh sach khac vai
chinh sach hoa giai d6i vtii Bic Kinh truoc
day de dap ting cac y kien cong chimg mcri
nhit. Ve mat kinh ti, NSP dir djnh giam su
ph\i thugc kinh te ctia Dai Loan vao Trung
Qu6c va chuyen trgng tam vao cac thi
truang dang phat trien 6 cac nuac Dong
Nam A va Nam A. Vi mgt chiin luge, NSP
' Lindsay Black (2019), "Evaluating Taiwan's New Vol.39,No. l,pp. 103.
Southbound Policy: Going South or Going Sour?" Asian "Tsun-tzzu Kristy Hsu (2017), "A Review of Taiwan-
Survey, 59:2, pp. 251. . „ ,. ,
' Executive Yuan (2016), "'New Southbound Policy
promotion plan launched". Office of Trade Negotiations, " James Conachy (2001), "Taiwan
Executive Yuan, 5 September, https://www.ey.gov.tw/ links
otnen/64C34DCAS893B06/9c560855-lecd-4f58-9c3f-
C065d9e58f89, truy c5p ngiy 20/8^019.
12
Nghien ciru khoojS^
nhim tang cuong m5i quan he voi cac 1""^
gia d6i tac de tai lap quyen tu do dgc HP "
Chau A bing each tao ra cac m6i quan h?
kinh te it nhay cam ve chinh tri hon. Do do,
NSP nhim giam riii ro chmh tri trong viSc
qua phu thugc kinh te vao Trung Qu6c, tich
cue mo rgng thj tnrdng mdi n6i cr nil*
ngoai, tang cudng S'ao ddi kinh te vdi cac
nude ASEAN va Nam A, va tim toi cac moi
quan he chinh tri tiem nang.'°
Nhurng tiim mdi ciia NSP
NSP dugc dua ra tr6n nen tang ctia ba
chinh sach hudng Nam da co trudc day cua
cac nha lanh dao L^ Dang Huy va Tran
Thily Bien. Ba chinh sach hudng Nam nay
chua dem lai hieu qua cao, do cin tap trung
phat trien cong nghiep trong ngi bg Dai
Loan thdi ky cuoi nSm 1996," do danh gii
thap hau qua ctia cuoc khting hoang tai chinh
1997-1998,'^ do stic hip din ctia mgt Trung
Quoc troi day vao dau the ky XXI, va do
mau thuan trong cac chinh sach ciia Dai
Loan khi cflng khuyen khich cac doanh
nghiep dau tu sang Trung Qudc dai luc."
NSP tuong tu nhung mang tinh chien luge
hon ba chinh sach ke tren. NSP ctia chinh
quyen Thai Anh Vin nhim muc dich giim
Chiou Eric Vi-hung (2017), "Analysis ofthe Strategic
Competition and Cooperation between Taiwan's 'New
Southbound Policy' and China's 'One Belt, One Road'"
European Research Center on Contemporary Taiwan
" Ngeow Chow Bing (2017), "Taiwan's Go South Policy
Deja vu All Over Again?" Conlemporan Soulhen,, AJ'
•"•Asia.
Old and New Go South Policy: An Econo •'^
Perpective", Prospect Jo«rna/, No. 18, pp.71. """^^
to increase econ •
with China"
links wilh China", World
Wnritt Socialist
t;^„!^li,, Website, 3
u/„i,..-. .""Cmic
'^ug.
https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2001 /08/taiw-a31 hfl"'
miy cap ngay 20/8/2019 ""'•
NGHIEN CflU OOHO B()C A s6 1 0 ( 2 2 4 n i ^ ^
Nghien cicu khoa hpc
bdt su thong tri cua Trung Qudc dai luc ddi
vtii thuong mai Dai Loan, '•* nhimg chinh
sach nay toan dien hcm va nhan manh viec
xay dimg mdt mang ludi quan he van hda va
mdi quan he giiia cac ca nhan trong toan khu
nrc.''
Ve pham vi ctia chinh sach, NSP da md
rgng ddi tugng, khdng chi bao gdm 10 nude
ASEAN, ma NSP cdn huting tdi 6 nude
Nam A (An Do, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh,
Nepal, Bhutan, Pakistan), Autralia va New
Zeadland. Ve dinh huiing, NSP da dua ra
nhihig hudng phat trien mdi nham bd sung
cho nhung khoang trdng trong cac chinh
sich hudng Nam cu. Cu the, khdng chi
khuyen khich thucmg nhan Dai Loan den dau
tu tai cac nude ASEAN, NSP cdn keu ggi
cac thuang nhan tu ASEAN va Nam A den
diu tu tai Dai Loan; khuyen khich giao luu
nhan dan tir ca hai phia thdng qua du ljch va
hgc tap. Mgt diem quan trgng khac, neu nhu
trudc kia Dai Loan chi nhin nhan cac nude
ASEAN la ca sd san xuit gia re tai nude
ngoai, thi nay, NSP da nhin nhan ASEAN va
Nam A vdi vai trd la ddng lire ddi mdi ctia
ca khu vuc, vdi thj trudng rgng md va tang
ldp trung luu dang phat trien. Nha lanh dao
Thai Anh Van cho ring, "thtic diy quan he
van hda va giao due nhim xay dung chuyen
mdn cin thiet de duy tri chinh sach trong
" Chao. Wen-chih (2016), "OpporWnities and Challenges
of Taiwan's "New Southbound Policy" under Mainland
China's "One Belt, One Road" Initiative", Prospect
Journal, 16, pp. 85.
" Bonnie S. Glaser, Matthew P. Funaiole & Emily Jin
(2017), "Unpacking Tsai Ing-wen's New Southbound
Policy: Can Taiwan's latest attempt to avoid economic
dependence on China success?" The Diplomat, April 1.
https://lhediplomat.com/2017/04/unpacking-tsai-ing-
wens-new-southbound-policy/, truy cap ngay 20/8/2019.
NGHIEN Cda OdNG B^C A s6 10(224) 10-2019
thdi gian dai" la mdt khia canh mtii cua NSP
so vdi vtii cac chinh sach hudng Nam trudc
day."Tom lai, NSP nhan manh each tiep
can coi "eon ngudi la tmng tam" trong quan
he song phuang thay vi tap trung vao cac tm
tien truyen thdng nhu thuang mai tu do, dau
tu va phat trien co sd ha tang.
Kit qua ciia NSP
Tir khi chinh thtic dugc trien khai den nay,
NSP da dat dugc mgt sd ket qua dang ghi
nhan. Vi thuong mgi, tuy mtic trao ddi
thucmg mai va dau tu cua Dai Loan ddi vdi
Trung Qudc dai luc vin chua giam, vin
chiem 4 1 % ty le xuat khiu"va 20% nh$p
khau ctia Dai Loan (nam 2018),'* nhung
tdng khdi lugng thuang mai ctia Dai Loan
vdi 18 qudc gia muc tieu NSP da tang tir 96
ty USD nam 2016 len 117,1 ty USD nam
2018, U-ong do, xuit khiu tang tu- 59,5 ty
USD ien 68,4 ty USD, nhap khiu tang tir
36,6 ty USD len 48,7 ty USD. Cung trong
giai doan nay, vdn dau tu nude ngoai tir 18
qudc gia nay den Dai Loan tang 66%, tir
235,91 trieu USD len 391,54 trieu USD."
Dang chii y, Dai Loan da ky ket ban cap nhat
hiep dinh diu tu song phuang (BIA) vdi
" Lindsay Black (2019), Tldd, pp. 254.
" Daniel Workman (2019), "Taiwan's Top Trading
Partners", World Top Exports, 1 March, http://www.wor
ldstopexports.com/taiwans-top-import-partners/, truy cap
ngay 16/8/2019.
'* Hsin-Huang Michael Hsiao, Jeremy Huai-Che Chiang
& Alan Hao Yang (2018), "Here's How Taiwan Should
Tweak the New Southbound Policy", The Newstens, 11
Dec, https://intemalional.thenewslens.com/aiticle/l09877,
truy cap ngay 16/8/2019.
" Stacy Hsu (2019), "Taiwan's New Southbound Policy
showing strong results: trade office", Focus Taiwan, 23
May, http://focustaiwan.tw/news/aipl/201905230017.aspx,
tray cap ngSy 16/8/2019.
13

Philippines vao thang 12/2017 '"va An Do
vao thang 12/2018.^'Day la 2 hiep djnh cap
nhat dugc ky ket dau tien gitra Dai Loan va
cac nude muc tieu NSP, trong khi cac BIA
giira Dai Loan va 7 nude muc tieu hau het
dugc ky each day 20 nam.
Vi gido due, trong giai doan 2016-2018,
sd Iugng sinh vien Dai Loan tit 18 qudc gia
muc tieu cua NSP da tang 60,8%, tir 32.318
len 51.970 ngudi. Trong khi do, theo chieu
nguge lai, sd lugng sinh vien Dai Loan den
18 qudc gia de hgc tap tang 34,7%, tir
15.662 ien thanh 21.100 ngudi nam 2018.
Trong ITnh vice du Uch, trong vdng 3 nam tir
2016-2018, khach du ljch tir 18 qudc gia
muc tieu NSP den Dai Loan tang 58%, tir
913.248 ien khoang 1,4 trieu ngudi. So
lutjmg chuyen bay hang tuan tir 18 qudc gia
nay den Dai Loan cting da tang tir 473 len
thanh 609 chuyen .^^
Trong cac linh vuc khae nhu vdn hda, xa
hgi vd cdng nghi, mgt sd thanh tuu dang ke
nhu vi$e thanh lap diin dan Yushan vao nam
2017 nham tao ra mdt diin dan cho eac nha
lanh dao, nha tu tudng, nha ddi mdi va lanh
dao tre ctia Chau A trao ddi y tuting va tao
diiu kien hgp tac ldn hcm trong cac linh vuc
ddi mdi va tien bd.^^ Ben canh dd, Du an
" Emereon Lim, Kuan-lin Liu (2017), "Taiwan,
Philippines sign bilateral investment agreement". Focus
Taiwan, 1 Dec, http://focustaiwan.tw/news/aeco/2017120
70022.aspx, truy c?p ngjy 16/8/2019.
^' Stacy Hsu (2018), "Taiwan, India sign updated bilateral
investment pact", Taipei Times, Dec 19, http-//w ww.tai
peitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2018/12/19/200370
6400, miy C9P ngay 16/8/2019.
" S t a c y Hsu (2019), Tldd.
" Taiwan-Asia Exchange Foundation (2019), "Yushan
Forum", https://www.taef.org/2018yushanforum, tmy c3p
ngay 16/8/2019.
14
Nghien cicu Uioaj^
"Mdt qudc gia - mgt trung tam" % e > ti con?
cdng da lidn kit sau benh vien Dai Loan vdt
sau qudc gia Chau A la Indonesia. An 09-
Thai Lan, Malaysia, Philippines va Viet
Nam...^" Dai Loan da giii dugc 17 dV ^
cdng tai cae qudc gia mue tieu vdi gia <*^"
thiu kit hgp la 25,2 ty USD, va gianh dWC
20 du an vdi tong gia thiu la 25 ty USD
trong nam 2018."
Ngoai eac sd lieu cu thi thdng ke ve tien
h-ien cua NSP, chinh sach nay da tao ra hieu
ting tich cue cho Dai Loan tren trudng quo'^
te, tao diiu kien cho Dai Loan hgp tac vdi
eac qudc gia khae va diiu chinh cac chien
luge. Vi dii, Dai Loan cdn tim each lien ket
giira NSP vdi Chiin luge An Do Duong -
Thai Binh Duong md va tu do (FOIP) cua
My, nham ddng vai trd ro hon trong khu vuc
An Do Duong - Thai Binh Duong.'* Ngay
11/5/2018, CO quan ngoai giao Dai Loan da
thanh lap Cue An Do Dtrong - Thai Binh
Duong vdi tu each mgt co quan thuc hien
NSP, nham giilp Dai Loan hinh thanh cac
mdi quan he ed y nghia vdi cac qudc gia d
An Do Duong - Thai Binh Duong, noi Dai
Bac dugc coi la cd lgi thi so sanh vdi Bic
Kinh."
" Prashanth Parameswaran (2019), "Assessing Taiwan's
New Southbound Policy", The DIplomal, 23 Anrii
hrtps://thediplomat.com/2019/04/assessing-taiwans-new '
southbound-policy/, truy C9p ngay 20/8/2019.
" Hsin-Huang Michael Hsiao, Jeremy Huai-Che Ch'
& Alan Hao Yang (2018), Tldd. ™S
" Prashanth Parameswaran (2019), Tldd.
" Logan Pauley (2018), "Taiwan's New Southbo.mj
Policy Meets the US Free and Open Indo-Pa^ J-
Strategy", The Diplomat, 28 Jun https://www.stimson
/content/taiwan%E2%80%99s-new-southbound-policy'°'^^
meets-us-free-and-open-indo-pacific-strategy, t^uv
ngay 20/8/2019. "'P
NGHIEN CdfU OONG BflC ^, s 6 1 0 ( 2 2 4 ) ^ ^ ^
Nghien ciiu khoa hpc

3. Trien vpng va thach thirc doi vdi rieng ctia minh tai khu -vuc, mang din nhiiu
NSP trong bdi canh "Vanh dai va Con thach thire va canh tranh ddi vdi BRI.
dirdng" (BRI) Triin vgng ddi v&i NSP trong bSi canh
Khdi quat vi BRI BRI
NSP dugc chinh quyen Dai Loan dua ra Do trgng tam phat triin NSP khac vdi
trong bdi eanh Tnmg Qudc dang day manh BRI, trong bdi eanh cae nude dgc theg tuyin
BRI. BRI dugc Trung Qudc dua ra tir cudi "Vanh dai" va "Con dudng" edn nhidu nghi
nam 2013, la mgt sang kien day tham vgng, ngai ve muu dd chidn luge dang sau BRI,
cung luc hudng den nhieu muc tieu. BRI se khien NSP vin cd su-c hut ridng.
trd thanh mang ludi ket ndi cac tuyin dudng Thic nhdl, sire manh mem Dai Loan cd
bg, dudng bien, dudng sat cua khoang 65 nhumg tm the nhat djnh. Ngoai viee chu y
qudc gia vdi nhau vdi tdng GDP khoang den CO sd ha tang cling va lien ket mang ludi
23.000 ty USD, tuong duong 1/3 GDP toan giao thdng, chinh sach mcri cua Dai Loan
ciu, lien ket 62% toan bg sd dan the gidi.'* chu trgng hcm den co sd ha tang mem va kit
Tinh ddn thang 4/2018, Trung Qudc da ky ndi con ngudi thdng qua mang ludi xa hgi,
ket tren 100 thda thuan trien khai hgp tac vdi phan anh va nhan manh gia trj chia sd cua
86 qudc gia va td chirc qudc td trong khudn chuang trinh hanh ddng lay eon ngudi lam
khd BRI." Mac du dat dugc nhieu thanh tuu, trung tam. Kinh nghiem phat trien chat
nhung BRI cflng vap phai khdng it khd khan, lugng cua Dai Loan cd lgi the so vdi md
khien nhidu du an eham tre va tham chi that hinh Trung Qudc, dac biet la trong khu v\rc
bai, nhu: (i) khd khan tir ndi bg Trung Qudc "CO sd ha tang mdm". NSP md ra cac co hgi
va cic nude tham gia BRI, nhu: BRI can huy hgp tac song phuorng hoac da phuang dua
dgng mdt sd vdn qua ldn, chat lugng va cdng tren the manh cua Dai Loan trong ITnh vuc
ngh? trong cac du an chua dam bao, tham eham sdc y te, van hda, du lich, khoa hgc va
nhflng va bat dn chinh trj tai mdt sd qudc gia cdng nghe cung nhu ndng nghiep... Cd the
dgc theo BRI...; (ii) lo ngai vd "bay ng" tir thay, NSP cd cau tnic thuc dung d chd chi
dau tu eua Trung Qude;^" (iii) eac cudng tap trung vao cac ITnh virc ma Dai Loan cd
qudc cflng dang day manh cac chidn luge lgi the so sanh vdi Trung Qudc, thiie day eae
giai phap va mdi quan he than thien ma cac
qudc gia d Chau A Thai Binh Duong
" C h i n a Power Team (2017), "How will the Belt and khdng tim kiem tir Bic Kinh.""
Road Initiative advance China's interests?" China Power,
8 May, Updated 29 May 2019, https://chinapower
Thii hai nhumg ngudi nhap cu tir cac
csis.org/china-belt-and-road-initiative/, truy C9p ngay
20/8/2019. nude Ddng Nam A va Nam A ddng vai trd
" X i n h u a (2017), "China signs cooperation agreements quan trgng trong ket ndi xa hdi giira Dai
with 86 entitles under Beh and Road", 23 Dec,
http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2017-12/23/c_ 13684 Loan vdi cae nude nay. Nhim dat mirc tang
6221 .htm, truy cap ngay 20/8/2019. tnrdng kinh te cao, chinh quyen Dai Loan da
'"Alan H. Yang (2017), "Taiwan's Southbound Practices
VS China's Belt & Road", Taiwan Insight, 4 Oct,
https://taiwaninsight.org/2017/10/04/taiwans-southbound-
practices-vs-chinas-belt-road/, miy cap ng^y 20/8/2019. " Logan Pauley (2018), Tldd.

NGHIEN C(ia OONQ BflC fl. S6 10(224) 10-2019 15


chap nhan ngay cang nhieu ngudi nhap cu tir
cae nude ASEAN va Nam A din tham gia
vao mgt sd nganh nghd nhu lao ddng chan
tay. Nhihig ngudi nhap cu mdi nay cd thi
dugc cgi la cau noi quan trgng giira Dai
Loan vtii eac qudc gia frong khu virc NSP.^^
Viec giup nhimg ngudi nhap cu mdi hda
nhap vdi xa hgi Dai Loan cflng la mdt trong
nhung bien phap tang cudng kit ndi gitia
con ngudi vdi con ngudi nhu nhihig gi NSP
dera.
Thic ba, hqf tac frong cac nganh cdng
nghi?p cd the manh. Ngoai viec cd nhiiu
kinh nghiem thuc te frong cac ITnh vuc nhu
cdng nghiep di?n tti, edng nghiep hda diu,
che bien thiic pham, nghien eiiu va phat triin
phy tung d td, Dai Loan cdn cd cac cdng
ngh^ tidn tien va ngudn nhan lire cap eao di
phat trien cac nganh cdng nghiep cd lgi
the." NhOng nam gin day, cae nude Ddng
Nam A va Nam A cung bit dau chu trgng
phat frien eac nganh nghe ndi fren, do dd,
phuorng huiing hgp tac giira Dai Loan va cae
qudc gia muc tidu cua NSP khdng ndn chi
dimg lai d vide Dai Loan dau tu eae xudng
san xuit cac san pham ndi frdn tai cac nude
myc tieu cua NSP. Sy hgp tac se dugc cac
qudc gia Ddng Nam A va Nam A danh gia
cao niu Dai Loan cd the hd frg sy phat tridn
cac nganh cdng nghiep nay tai khu vyc
thdng qua viec hd frg ky thuat, dao tao nhan
luc...
Wen-chih Chao (2016), "Opportunities and Challenges
of Taiwan's "New Southbound Policy" under Mainland
China's "One Belt, One Road" Initiative", Prospect
Journal, 16, pp. 97.
" Wen-chih Chao (2016), Tldd, pp. 97.
16
Nghien cicu Knoanyz-
Thach thirc doi v&i NSP trong bii canh
BRI
Tuy cd ttidn vgng frong viec thiic day cac
ket ndi mim tai khu vyc Ddng Nam A va
Nam A, nhtmg frong bdi canh Trung Qudc
thtic diy BRI frong khu vyc A - Au, NSP
cflng phai ddi mat vdi khdng it thach thiic.
Thti nhai vd tuang quan quy md giiia
NSP va BRI. BRI la d?i chiin luge cua
Trung Qudc, vdi tdng sd dy an len ttii 900 ty
USD, bao gdm din 60 qudc gia, lien quan
din 4 ty ngudi, va khoang 1/3 GDP toan
eau.^''Trong khi dd, din cudi thang 1/2017,
ngan sach NSP cua Dai Loan chi khoang 25
ty USD.^' Cd thi ndi, vdi quy md to ldn nhu
vay, BRI eua Trung Qudc dai luc dudng nhu
da "lam md" di, chenh lech Itin ve quy md
giiia hai sang kien nay chic chin anh hudng
Idn ddn siic hap din cua NSP ddi vtii cac
qudc gia myc tidu, cflng nhu han chi Chinh
quyen Dai Loan trong vi$c thuc day manh
me ehinh sich nay, bdi vdi sd lugng 18 qudc
gia muc tidu, ngan sach NSP dudng nhu
khdng du de chi fra cho nhiiu vin di va
chinh sach dua ra.^'
Thii hai anh hudng cua quan he hai bd
ddi vdi NSP. Cang thing chinh tri giira hai
bd ndu leo thang se han che pham vi va hieu
qua cua cac quan he thucmg mai mdi gifla
Dai Loan vdi eac qudc gia muc tieu cua NSP
" Lindsay Black (2019), Tldd, pp. 260.
" Financial Examination Bureau (2017), "Financial
Outlook Monthly", Financial Supervision Commission
149 (April 2017): 5-8, https://www.feb.gov.tw/cn/home
jsp?id^71&parentpath=0,10&mcustomize=, truy can npiv
20/8/2019. '^'
" Kwei-Bo Huang (2017), "Tsai's Southbound Policy
Faces 'One China' Opposition", 77ie Newstens, 20 Oct
https://intemational.thenewslens.eom/article/81448 in
cSpngAy 20/8/2019. ' ^
NGHIEN Cdu Dima B^C A. S6 1 0 ( 2 2 4 n a ^
Nghien ciru khoa hpc

Du NSP cd sire hap dan nhat djnh va hiia che nhu Ngan hang Dau tu ha tang Chau A
hen mang lai nhieu lgi ich cho cac nude (AIIB), Quy Con dudng to lya, bit dau xay
tham gia, nhtmg chinh saeh "Mdt Trung dung ket ndi lien thdng nhu ca sd ha tang,
Qudc" lai la rao can khidn nhieu nude ed thuang mai, tai chinh... tai cac qudc gia dgc
tam ly nghi ngai, khdng mudn bj vd tinh keo theg BRI. Trong khi do, do nhidu nguyen
vao bau khdng khi cang thang giira Trung nhan. ttong dd ehu ydu la rao can frong vice
Qudc dai luc va Dai Loan. Mat khac, frong thira nhan chinh sach "Mdt Trung Qudc".
tuong lai gan, cae hieu Omg kinh td ehinh tri frong sd 10 nude ASEAN, Dai Loan mdi ky
ciia BRI rat hap dan, cd thd se idi keo hit cac kdt hiep dinh ddi tac kinh td (ASTP) vdi
qudc gia frong khu vuc tham gia chidn luge Singapore, ky ket ban cap nhat hiep dinh dau
nay. dg dd, cd thd lam phan tan ngudn lire tu vdi Philippines va An Dd, do do, khdng
ttong hgp tac vdi Dai Loan. ^' Vi du, the ctmg cap dti nhiing dam bao frong dau tu
Australia da tti bd kd hoach cho mgt hiep ddi vdi eac doanh nghiep Dai Loan.
dinh thuong mai ty do vtii Dai Loan sau khi 4. Ket loan
cd Canh bao tir Bac Kinh, frong khi bang Chinh saeh NSP cua chinh quyen Thai
Victoria cua Ausfralia da chinh thtic ky kdt Anh Van dua ra nham xay dyng nhihig mdi
tham gia BRI vao thang 10 nam 2018."' quan he kieu mdi lay con ngudi lam trung
Thii ba, frong viec khai thac thj trudng tam \di cac qudc gia ASEAN va Nam A.
Ddng Nam A, giiia Trung Qudc dai luc va Trong bdi canh BRI cua Trung Qudc t^p
Dai Loan ciing cd nhieu each biet \-e thyc trung vao xa\ dung co sd ha tang cirng, NSP
lyc. Theo sd lieu thdng kd, Trung Qudc dai cd nhidu lgi the de hinh thanh ket ndi "mem"
lyc chiem 20% ti ttgng thuang mai cua eac frong ITnh vyc nhan van, van hda va giao dye
nude ASEAN (sd lieu nam 2016), frang khi vdi cac qudc gia myc tidu cua chitih saeh.
dd con sd nay cua Dai Loan chi d mirc 5%. Mac du chinh quyen Thai Anh Van khdng
Ngoai ra, giira Trung Qudc va cac nude cdng nhan "Ddng thuan 92", nhimg NSP va
ASEAN da xay dyng dugc nhiiu co che hgp BRI khdng ndn duge coi la mdt sy eanh
tac, nhu Khu Thucmg mai tu do Trung tranh khac giCra Dai Loan vdi Trung Qudc
Quoc- ASEAN da dugc khdi ddng vao nam dai luc. Chinh phu Dai Loan ndn nhan manh
2010, hoan thanh dam phan nang cap vao sy bd sung va hd trg nhau giua NSP va BRI
nam 2015. Hien na\. nhim thuc day xay frong myc dich chung la theo dudi sy phat
dung BRI, Trung Qudc da thdng qua cac co trien va thjnh vugng chung cua khu vyc, chti
khdng phai canh ttanh vdi Trung Qudc trong
quan he chinh tri ddi ngoai. Didu nay cd the
" Don Shapiroon (2019). Tldd. giup cho eac qudc gia myc tidu tranh dugc
'* Hsin-Huang Michael Hsiao, Jeremy Huai-Che Chiang
& Alan Hao Yang (2018), Tldd.
tinh the tien thoai ludng nan khi phai chgn
"•t"Haiff«i (2016), ^,Wff^l^Aw^(tffSf~ii giu-a Dai Loan va Trung Qudc dai lyc, tir dd
M"t n2a\ 9^9. http://prestiper.comrplzhx/hxshpij201 cd the lam tang kha nang tham gia NSP ciia
60912016 l)90S_l 1563381.htm, tniy cap ngay 15/7 2019.
(M?ng Dai Loan Trung QuSc (2016), "LTu the cua Chlnh cae qudc gia muc tidu. Ben canh dd, nhirng
sich huong Nam m*i DSi Loan la 6 "su thanh khan"?).

NGHIEN ClJa 0 6 N G BflC fl. s6 10(224) 10-2019 17


han che ve nguon lire cua NSP khidn Dai
Loan khong the thiic day hop tac voi nhidu
quoc gia ciing mot luc. Do do, chinh quydn
Thai Anh VSn nen lira chon mot so quoc gia
trpng diem de phat trien quan he truoc, lira
chpn mpt so ITnh vyc co tiem nang de tien
hanh trao doi truoc, tir do ket noi cac diem
hpfp tac va tao ra mot mang luoi sau rpng
hon giua Dai Loan voi 18 quoc gia muc tieu
cua NSP./.
TAI lAtA} THAM KHAO
\. James Baron (2016), "Taiwan's friend-
buying days are over". East Asia Forum, 15 Jul
2016, https://www.eastasiaforum.org/2016/07/
15/taiwans-friend-buying-days-are-over/.
2. Lindsay Black (2019), "Evaluating
Taiwan's New Southbound Policy: Going South
or Going Sour?" Asian Survey, 59: 2, pp. 246-
271.
3. Wen-chih Chao (2016), "Opportunities
and Challenges of Taiwan's "New Southbound
Policy" under Mainland China's "One Belt, One
Road" Initiative", Prospect Journal, 16, pp.79-
104.
4. Bonnie S. Glaser, Matthew P. Funaiole &
Emily Jin (2017), "Unpacking Tsai Ing-wen's
New Southbound Policy: Can Taiwan's latest
attempt to avoid economic dependence on China
success?" The Diplomat, April 1. https://thedip
lomat.com/2017/04/unpacking-tsai-ing-wens-
new-south bound-pohcy/.
5. Hsin-Huang Michael Hsiao, Jeremy Huai-
Che Chiang & Alan Hao Yang (2018), "Here's
How Taiwan Should Tweak the New
Southbound Policy", The Newslens, 11 Dec,
18
Nghien ciru Kfio^j^xl
https://intemalional.thenewslens.com'articie/luy
877.
6. Tsun-tzzu Kristy Hsu (2017). "A Review
of Taiwan's Old and New Go Soudi Policy: An
Economics Peqaecdve", Prospect Journal,
No.18, pp. 63-87.
7. Kwei-Bo Huang (2017), "Tsai's
Southbound Policy Faces 'One China'
Opposition", The Newslens, 20 Oct,
https://intemational.thenewsIens.com/articIe/814
48.
8. Ngeow Chow Bing (2017), 'Taiwan's Go
South Policy: Deja vu Ail Over Again?"
Contemporary Southeast Asia, Vol. 39, No. 1,
pp. 96-126.
9. Prashanth Parameswaran (2019),
"Assessing Taiwan's New Southbound Policy",
The Diplomat. 23 April, https ://thediplo
mat.com/2019/04/assessing-taiwans-new-south
bound-policy/.
10. Don Shapiroon (2019), "The New
Southbound Policy in a New Context", Taiwan
Bussiness Topic, 13 Feb, https ://topics.amcham.
com.tw/2019/02/the-new-southbound-policy-in-
a-new-context/.
11. Alan H. Yang (2017), "Taiwan's
Southbound Practices vs China's Belt & Road",
Taiwan Insight. 4 Oct, https ://taiwaninsight.
org/2017/10/04/taiwans-southbound-practices-
vs-chinas-belt-road/.
12. Chiou Eric Yi-hung (2017), "Analysis of
the Strategic Competition and Cooperation
between Taiwan's 'New Southbound Policy'
and China's 'One Belt, One Road'", European
Research Center on Contemporary Taiwan, July
pp. 1-24.
NGHfEN ofa o6m M c A. S6 IO(22M 10-2019